List of articles (by subject) Labor and Demographic Economics
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Open Access Article
1 - Money Priming and Trust among Children: Evidence of a Field Experiment
Zahra Ebrahimi Masoud Homayounifar Mehdi FeiziIn addition to typical functions of money such as a medium of exchange, a means of evaluation, and storing the value of goods and services, it also has a symbolic character. Money due to its symbolic character can be used as a social goal in regulating interpersonal and MoreIn addition to typical functions of money such as a medium of exchange, a means of evaluation, and storing the value of goods and services, it also has a symbolic character. Money due to its symbolic character can be used as a social goal in regulating interpersonal and intrapersonal relationships. On the one hand, priming is one of the most important ways to highlight the symbolic aspect of money. On the other hand, trust is one of the essential aspects of human relations. We conduct a trust game experiment on 511 fourth-grade girl students from the public schools in Mashhad. The results showed that children primed with money in the experimental group, on average, trust more than the control group. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - The effect of monetary policy on production and inflation in the context of gender discrimination in the Iranian labor market
Heidar Zobeidi Karim Emami Farhad Ghaffari The main purpose of this paper is to explain the effect of monetary policy shock on output and inflation variables in the context of gender discrimination in the Iranian labor market using the new Keynesian stochastic dynamic equilibrium mode More The main purpose of this paper is to explain the effect of monetary policy shock on output and inflation variables in the context of gender discrimination in the Iranian labor market using the new Keynesian stochastic dynamic equilibrium model during the period 2008-2009. The results of solving the model showed that the existence of gender discrimination in the Iranian labor market as a destructive phenomenon leads to economic inefficiencies such as reduced wages for men and women, consumption, production and welfare. The results also showed that in the context of gender discrimination, the transmission of the expansionary monetary policy shock to the variables of production and inflation is weaker than the conditions of non-discrimination. Based on the results, awareness of the hidden economic and social angles of this phenomenon and sensitization to planning for maximum elimination through the enactment of laws and the creation of special women's unions and responsible control and monitoring of institutions involved in the real situation of women workers in the Iranian labor market is suggested. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Efficiency of 4 stage supply chain in presence of non discretionary , undesirable and negative factors Using SBM model in DEA
mehdi shoga farhad hoseinzadeh lotfi امیر غلام ابری Alireza Rashidi KomijanThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of a four-stage supply chain in the presence of uncontrollable, undesirable and negative data in the cement industry. For this purpose, the Slack-Based Measure (SBM) model in network data envelopment analysis is p MoreThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of a four-stage supply chain in the presence of uncontrollable, undesirable and negative data in the cement industry. For this purpose, the Slack-Based Measure (SBM) model in network data envelopment analysis is presented to evaluate the performance of such chains. Then, 42 cement companies present in the stock exchange and securities, the corresponding chain of each of which has four stages of supplier, producer, distributor and customer, were evaluated during the period 1394-1394. Based on the implementation of the model, 5 companies have been efficient for three consecutive years and the efficiency score of the rest of them has been less than 1 in all years or some years. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Explaining the Nonlinear Effects of Government Fiscal Policy Instruments on Iran's Economic Growth in Times of Recession and Recession
shadi zandavar fatemeh zandi mohammad khezri mahnaz rabieiهدف این مقاله بررسی اثرگذاری سیاست مالی دولت بر رشد اقتصادی ایران طی دوره زمانی 1384:1-1397:1 با تواتر فصلی با استفاده از مدل مارکوف سوییچینگ است. نتایج حاصل از نسبت راست نمایی نشان داد سیاست مالی در ایران از نظام چرخشی مارکف تبعیت می‌کند. نتایج برای برخی از انواع مالی Moreهدف این مقاله بررسی اثرگذاری سیاست مالی دولت بر رشد اقتصادی ایران طی دوره زمانی 1384:1-1397:1 با تواتر فصلی با استفاده از مدل مارکوف سوییچینگ است. نتایج حاصل از نسبت راست نمایی نشان داد سیاست مالی در ایران از نظام چرخشی مارکف تبعیت می‌کند. نتایج برای برخی از انواع مالیات‌ها حاکی از متفاوت بودن تاثیرگذاری در حالت وجود نفت بوده است. در واقع خود نشان از اهمیت بررسی تاثیر مالیات‌ها به تفکیک بر رشد اقتصادی می-باشد. چنانچه دولت قصد اجرای سیاست مالی انبساطی از نوع افزایش مخارج را داشته باشد، بهتر است در رژیم رکودی این عمل صورت پذیرد زیرا تاثیر معناداری در این شرایط بر رشد اقتصادی ندارد. اما چنانچه سیاست مالی انبساطی از نوع کاهش مالیات‌ها مدنظر باشد بایستی بسته به نوع مالیات، بسته به سطح درآمدهای نفتی و همچنین رژیم حاکم بر رشد اقتصادی این مهم صورت پذیرد.طبقه‌بندی .G10, E62, C13:JEL واژگان کلیدی: اثرات غیرخطی، ابزارهای سیاست مالی، رشد اقتصادی ایران. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Evaluation of the Effect of Macroeconomic Variables and Islamic Financing on the Efficiency of Private and Public Banks in Iran
morteza jalalzadeh azar roya aleemran Hossein Panahi Hossein AsgharpurThe purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables and Islamic financing (Sukuk) on the returns of private and public banks in Iran (15 banks in total) using the panel data method during the period 1384-1396. The results of model estimat MoreThe purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables and Islamic financing (Sukuk) on the returns of private and public banks in Iran (15 banks in total) using the panel data method during the period 1384-1396. The results of model estimation showed that sukuk, inflation, ratio of equity to total assets (as a variable of the bank) have a positive and significant effect on banks' returns. This means that the issuance of sukuk increases the efficiency and profitability of banks. The findings showed that government ownership has a negative impact on banks' returns; So that with increasing government share of banks, profitability and, consequently, the efficiency of banks decreases; The ratio of total expenditures to total assets also has a negative and significant effect on banks' returns and the size of the bank also has a negative and significant effect on bank returns. Whereas state ownership negatively affects the efficiency of banks; Please reduce the government's share of the bank's ownership. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - Impact of Economic-Social Development on Air Quality in the Middle East Countries
masoumeh motallebi Reza Najarzade Lotfali AgheliThis research mainly aims to investigate the effect of economic-social development on air quality in Middle East countries. For this purpose, the effects of Socio-economic Development indicators and natural resource utilization indicators are examined as one of the main MoreThis research mainly aims to investigate the effect of economic-social development on air quality in Middle East countries. For this purpose, the effects of Socio-economic Development indicators and natural resource utilization indicators are examined as one of the main drivers of growth and development in the Middle East on Sulfur dioxide emission as an indicator for air quality. Since air pollution is a stable occurrence over time, the time-varying coefficient panel data model during the time period 2000-2019 is used to examine the impact of variables on Sulfur dioxide emissions. The results show that human capital, per capita income, and innovation have the greatest impact on the increase in Sulfur dioxide emissions, but resource usage indicators, especially the consumption of fossil fuels, lead to a decrease in Sulfur dioxide emissions. In fact, given the low use of renewable energy in the Middle East, energy consumption is mainly based on carbon sources. Thus, it is necessary to use environmental technologies and innovations instead of technology-based activities to control this issue in order to achieve sustainable economic growth and development. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - The Analysis of Pricing Behavior of Firms in the Iranian Economy, Applying Wavelet Transforms Method
Pooya MohammadMehdi Reza Najarzade Hassan HeydariThis paper investigates the adaptability of (TDP) models for pricing patterns in Iranian economy. For this purpose, price sub-indexes monthly time-series in the period of 2014(4) to 2017(11) are used. Moreover, appropriate wavelet transformation method is applied to ext MoreThis paper investigates the adaptability of (TDP) models for pricing patterns in Iranian economy. For this purpose, price sub-indexes monthly time-series in the period of 2014(4) to 2017(11) are used. Moreover, appropriate wavelet transformation method is applied to extract pricing patterns from the time-series. Based on our findings, firstly heterogeneity is observed between pricing patterns of distinct groups of goods and services significantly which is inconsistent with (TDP) models assumption about the random distribution of price changing signals. Secondly, the pricing patterns changes over time which does not match with the assumption of uniform distribution of random signal during the time. As a result, the (TDP) models are not able to explain the pricing behavior patterns of the Iranian economy and the alternative approaches such as state-dependent pricing or rationally inattentive methods can be applied. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - The Impact of Human Capital and Business Environment on the Economic Growth of Iran's Provinces
fazel qorbani ahmad sarlak Golamali HajiThe purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of human capital and business environment on the economic growth of thirty provinces of Iran by Generalized Method of Moments using panel data during 2010-2016. The results showed that human capital and business env MoreThe purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of human capital and business environment on the economic growth of thirty provinces of Iran by Generalized Method of Moments using panel data during 2010-2016. The results showed that human capital and business environment had a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of the provinces of the country, but human capital had more effect on the economic growth of the provinces than other variables. Based on the results, it is suggested that economic planners and policymakers strengthen the quality level of human capital and business competition environment. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - Return and Volatility of International Oil Price and Stock Index in OPEC Member Countries
esmaiel abounoori hamed ziyaoddinThis study intended to examine the correlation between the stock market return and the oil price return within a multivariate GARCH model. To this end, the correlation of these two variables with the spillover rate, conditional mean, oil price fluctuations, and the stoc MoreThis study intended to examine the correlation between the stock market return and the oil price return within a multivariate GARCH model. To this end, the correlation of these two variables with the spillover rate, conditional mean, oil price fluctuations, and the stock market indexes of 10 OPEC members, i.e. Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Nigeria, Qatar, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Ecuador, were examined in the form of monthly times series for the 2014–2019 time span. The results showed that there is a positive correlation between the oil price volatility and the stock market return in OPEC member countries. In addition, there is a greater correlation between the oil price fluctuations and the stock return in countries where oil revenues make a bigger contribution to GDP. It was also concluded that the oil price volatility spreads to that of the stock returns. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - The effects of crude oil prices in the world market on regional prices of gas, Vector Error Correction approach
Ali Aghili Moghaddam Ebrahim Abbassi Shahriar Nessabian Marjan DamankeshidehThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-term and short-term relationships between the behavior of gas and oil prices in regional markets and their impact on each other using the VECM correction method during the period 2000-2019. For this purpose, due to th MoreThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the long-term and short-term relationships between the behavior of gas and oil prices in regional markets and their impact on each other using the VECM correction method during the period 2000-2019. For this purpose, due to the wide range of variables in each region, proxy technique has been used to analyze the markets of gas and oil regions. The findings show that among the regional prices of the gas and oil market in Asia and Europe (unlike the US market), due to the relationship of aggregation, the influence of oil market fluctuations is very high. Due to the importance of the role of financial markets in facilitating oil and gas transactions, it is suggested that the major supply of oil and gas through the energy exchange be considered. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - The Effect of OPEC Statements on Fluctuations in Crude Oil Prices
Fariba Shahbodaghlou Aliasghar Esmaeilnia gatabi azadeh mehrabian ROYA SEIFIPOUR The purpose of this article is to examine the effect of OPEC statements (whether increasing, decreasing or not changing supply) on oil price fluctuations in crude oil markets. For this purpose, conditional heterogeneity and variable control variance models have b More The purpose of this article is to examine the effect of OPEC statements (whether increasing, decreasing or not changing supply) on oil price fluctuations in crude oil markets. For this purpose, conditional heterogeneity and variable control variance models have been used to investigate the effect of statements on Brent and WTI crude oil price fluctuations during the period 1987-2019 based on the event analysis approach. The findings show that OPEC statements have a significant effect on the turmoil in the oil market, and the type of statements varies on crude oil market fluctuations, and this effect has diminished over time. Based on the results, members' solidarity in the field of planning and coordinated implementation of decisions for maximum impact on the crude oil market is proposed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - Identifying Factors Affecting Non-curent Debts of Banks Using Neural Networks and Support Vector Machine Algorithm
sajjad kordmanjiri iman dadashi zahra Khoshnood hamid reza gholamnia roshanThe main purpose of this paper is to identify the factors influencing the creation and increase of non-current debts to make a more appropriate decision in granting facilities. For this purpose, to select effective variables, from the analysis algorithms of correlation MoreThe main purpose of this paper is to identify the factors influencing the creation and increase of non-current debts to make a more appropriate decision in granting facilities. For this purpose, to select effective variables, from the analysis algorithms of correlation and Lasso components; And to classify the samples, neural networks and support machine were used. In this study, a sample of 660 legal customers of Sepah Bank for the years 2006-2017 was selected and focused on the characteristic variables extracted from the facility contracts of these customers along with financial, non-financial, auditing and economic variables. The results showed that the Lasso algorithm focused on financial, economic and auditing variables, performed better than the neighboring component analysis algorithm, and based on this algorithm, 10 key variables affecting non-current debts were identified. Due to the better performance of support vector machines with radial cores, its use in modeling non-current debts is recommended. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
13 - The effects of Total Factor Productivity on Employment in Iranian Manufacturing Industries
shima sangsari mohammadgholi yousefy hamid amadehThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of total productivity factors on employment in Iran's industrial sectors using Autoregressive distributed lag and error correction model over the period 1996-2016. In modeling, industries are categorized into three gro MoreThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of total productivity factors on employment in Iran's industrial sectors using Autoregressive distributed lag and error correction model over the period 1996-2016. In modeling, industries are categorized into three groups of low-technology, Medium Low Technology, and Medium High Technology industries. The results show a significant and negative impact of total factor productivity on employment in Total industries and Medium High Technology industries that means meaning that the increase in total productivity factors in short and long term reduces total employment of Medium High Technology industries. In addition, total factor productivity has a negative effect on employment in low Technology and Medium Low Technology, meaning that increasing productivity in both the short and long run reduces employment in low-tech and medium-low industries. According to the results, increasing the skill and Workforce expertise and new Machinery can lead to increased productivity in the employment of Iranian industries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - Identification of Contagion Path of currency Crises in Industries of Tehran Stock Exchange
Maryam Bazrayi Saleh Ghavidel Ghodratollah EmamverdiThis study aims to detect path of currency crisis in different listed industries, in order to manage risk of shareholders in stock market. For this purpose, joint Contagion Test, Joint Coskewness Contagion Test and the Ornstein – Uhlenbeck Process are used. The da MoreThis study aims to detect path of currency crisis in different listed industries, in order to manage risk of shareholders in stock market. For this purpose, joint Contagion Test, Joint Coskewness Contagion Test and the Ornstein – Uhlenbeck Process are used. The data used in this study include: stock return of the listed industries and daily exchange rate during 2008 to 2020. The results suggest that currency crises of 2011 and 2018 have transmitted to all export- oriented import- oriented and neutral industries (except mass construction). Moreover, the findings support the fact that starting point of crisis contagion in both currency crises is pharmaceutical industry that attracted currency crises due to its strong correlation with exchange market. The next point of contagion in the first currency crisis is investment industry, and in the second currency crisis, basic metals and oil products. It is suggested that when currency crisis occurred, investors increase weight of basic metals stocks and decrease share of pharmaceutical and computers in their portfolio. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - Classification the Economic Entropy Index in a Macroeconomic Model
Behrouz Sadeghi Amroabadi mohsen renaniThe aim of this paper is the classification the economic entropy index in a macroeconomic model. Therefore, the descriptive-analytical methodology and econophysics and systems theory were used. The results show that the economic entropy was divided in four sections, sho MoreThe aim of this paper is the classification the economic entropy index in a macroeconomic model. Therefore, the descriptive-analytical methodology and econophysics and systems theory were used. The results show that the economic entropy was divided in four sections, shock entropy, respiration entropy, sleep entropy, and entropy of waste. Increasing the economic entropy index due to the scarcity of environmental resources, predicts the likelihood of an economic catastrophe. This will not only bring about economic growth faces serious problems, but the environment poses a serious problem as a place of residence. According to the results, reducing the instabilities and external stresses to reduce shock entropy, developing the appropriate rules for firms to reduce respiratory entropy, policies based on the reduction of physical and social waste to reduce the entropy of waste and policies for the use of production spaces that are not currently in use to reduce sleep entropy recommended. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
16 - the Influence of the Effective Shocks on Economic Growth in Iran with the Emphasis on Institutional Variables
Samin Sobhi Morteza Sameti Sara Ghobadi Majid SametiEarly economists have cited economic freedom as the basis for economic growth, and later economists have emphasized the role of inclusive political and economic institutions in creating and sustaining economic growth. The relationship between these two perspectives goes MoreEarly economists have cited economic freedom as the basis for economic growth, and later economists have emphasized the role of inclusive political and economic institutions in creating and sustaining economic growth. The relationship between these two perspectives goes to the concept that the economic freedom shapes by economic institutions. Proper institutional of countries not only contributes to the growth and prosperity of their economies, but can also increase the power of countries in the face of economic shocks. Identifying the institutions’ situation of countries can help to adopt appropriate policies by governments and the private sector. In this study, by generalizing a structural model of Iran's economy as it includes the endogenous institutional function, attempt to measure the effects of effective shocks on the macroeconomic structure of the country with emphasis on institutional variables. The results show that the increase in oil shock has had a positive effect on the country's economic growth and institutions. This study had done for the period 1349-1399 by using GMM and Svar methods. The result of estimating the structural model shows that improvement of the institutional environment has affected most of the important variables of the Iran's economy, so improving the quality of institutions leads to increase in national product and reduces liquidity. Also, damaging institutional factors is related with increase in government size and inflation. Most of the impulses considered in the study had a significant effect on economic growth and institutional status of the country. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
17 - Explaining the Financial Factors Affecting Turnaround from the insolvency of Companies Listed on the Tehran’s Stock Exchange
kazem harounkolai Seyedali Nabavi chashmi ghodratolah barzegar iman dadashiThe aim of this paper is explaining the financial factors affecting turnaround from the insolvency. For explaining financial affecting turnaround from insolvency 54 variables were selected from relevant studies. The information of 200 cases of distressed companies which MoreThe aim of this paper is explaining the financial factors affecting turnaround from the insolvency. For explaining financial affecting turnaround from insolvency 54 variables were selected from relevant studies. The information of 200 cases of distressed companies which were under recovery from distress was extracted between 2001 and 2017. Appropriate statistical methods for the process of refining variables have been performed through paired mean comparison tests as well as exploratory factor analysis using main components. Then, by filtering the variables using audit analysis and in the form of linear combinations, audit functions were formed. The results showed that the financial ratios of current liabilities to total assets, net profits to sales and sales to current assets have the most power to explain the companies’ turnaround. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
18 - Bankruptcy Prediction Modeling Using the Variables of Earnings Management
moslem ghatebi vali khodadadi alireza jorjorzadeh aHMAD KAAB OMEIRThe purpose of this research is to modeling and predicts bankruptcy using real and accrual earnings management variables. Based on this, using logistic regression, the accuracy of bankruptcy models before and after adding Earning management variables were estimated and MoreThe purpose of this research is to modeling and predicts bankruptcy using real and accrual earnings management variables. Based on this, using logistic regression, the accuracy of bankruptcy models before and after adding Earning management variables were estimated and compared. So, a sample consisting of 1287 years - company during the period 2006 to 2018 has been selected from the companies of Tehran Stock Exchange. The results showed that the predictability power of Altman, Springgate and Zimsky bankruptcy models has increased significantly after adding accrual earnings management variables compared to the initial models. The results also show that the parameters of real earning management weaken the predictability of Altman, Springgate and Zimsky models. Based on the results, accountants, managers, and economic planners are advised to pay special attention to the phenomenon of corporate Earning management in order to make their decisions better. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
19 - Identifying the Determinants of Corruption: An Application of Instrumental Variable Bayesian Model Averaging
Safoora Kashefi Mohsen Mehrara Ghahraman AbdoliAbstractPrevious studies in the corruption literature have introduced numerous variables as the determinants of corruption. This articles aims to evaluate the robustness of potential determinants of corruption by addressing the model uncertainty and endogeneitry. The re MoreAbstractPrevious studies in the corruption literature have introduced numerous variables as the determinants of corruption. This articles aims to evaluate the robustness of potential determinants of corruption by addressing the model uncertainty and endogeneitry. The results derived from an instrumental variable Bayesian model averaging analysis indicate that based on the data of 123 countries, rule of law, with a posterior inclusion probability (PIP) of 1 and posterior mean of 0.662 has the most important role in keeping corruption under control among 36 explanatory variables. Government effectiveness, with a PIP of 0.964 and posterior mean of 0.358 is another significant variable in curbing corruption. Also, with a PIP of 0.965 and posterior mean of -0.194 the Asia dummy variable tells that corruption is a serious problem in the Asia region. Further, confining the analysis to 95 developing countries reveals that rule of law with a PIP of 0.999 and posterior mean of 0.684 is the most critical variable in the fight against corruption. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
20 - Design a Model for Measuring the Dynamics Volatility Connectedness of Tehran Stock Exchange and Global Markets
Nasser Gholami Teymor Mohammadi abdolrasoul ghasemiThe aim of this article is to measure the dynamics connectedness of Tehran stock market with stock exchanges of selected countries from the Middle East and China, oil and gold markets, the dollar index and the euro-dollar and yuan-dollar. To this end, a variance decompo MoreThe aim of this article is to measure the dynamics connectedness of Tehran stock market with stock exchanges of selected countries from the Middle East and China, oil and gold markets, the dollar index and the euro-dollar and yuan-dollar. To this end, a variance decomposition approach has been used to measure connectedness of markets between January 2008 and the end of July 2019. The findings show that the variance of forecast errors in most of markets are due to the shocks of those markets themselves. The Qatari Stock Exchange has a significant impact on Saudi and UAE stock exchanges. As the time horizon increases, Brent's oil market will be more influential than other markets, and this market will be more affected by the stock exchanges of the Arab countries and the Shanghai Composite. According to the results, investing in the Tehran Stock Exchange and the yuan-dollar exchange rate due to insignificant dynamics connectedness with other markets is recommended to hedge risk. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
21 - The Impact of Bank Facilities in Different Areas of Economy on the Growth of the Added Values in Industry, Services, Agriculture, Building Construction and Housing
Mohsen Fatthi Aghababa Khosrow Azizi Mahmmod MahmmodzadeThis study is aimed of investigating the impact of the offered facilities of the banking system in fields of industry, services, agriculture, construction and housing on the added values of the aforementioned fields which was the steady state approach in the economic gr MoreThis study is aimed of investigating the impact of the offered facilities of the banking system in fields of industry, services, agriculture, construction and housing on the added values of the aforementioned fields which was the steady state approach in the economic growth models, to reach this, systematic generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) and time period information (data) from 1370 to 1396 have been used in Iran’s economic. The results of investigation from estimated equations indicate that non-duty and duty offered facilities has had a positive and significant effect on the added values in economic areas.Among these, the share of offered facilities to services, industry and mines, construction, housing and agriculture have had the greatest effect on the added values respectively. Prioritization of sectors based on economic return to scale and the amount of optimal allocation of bank credit can have favorable effects on the value added of various economic sectors in Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
22 - The Test of Trade Balance Effect Symmetry and the Incidence of Effects of Monetary Policy on Output and Inflation
seyyedeh sajedeh pourmohammadi amir mansour tehranchian saeed rasekhi The economy of Iran, since 1385s In addition to significiant decrease in output has experienced the high and two-digit inflation rates. For this reason, review of determinantes of inflation rate and output has a remarkable necessity. The factors like More The economy of Iran, since 1385s In addition to significiant decrease in output has experienced the high and two-digit inflation rates. For this reason, review of determinantes of inflation rate and output has a remarkable necessity. The factors like population growth, Eccessive technological advancement, private investment and initial level of per capita income and money growth are the variables affecting on the growth. Also, the idea of “inflationary money” has the relative consensus among economists, but identifying of the factors that determine the intensity of the effectiveness of the monetary policy on inflation rate and output makes it possible for monetary policymakers to planning for controlling inflation and increasing the output. Trade Openness is one of the factors that has a determinative role in review of difference the effectiveness of money growth on inflation rate and output in different countries. The aim of the present study is the test of Trade balance effect symmetry and the Incidence of the effects of monetary policy on economic growth and inflation. For this purpose, years 2000-2014, related to 34 selected countries with high middle-income and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) have been used. The research showed that more trade openness leads to increase the impact of monetary policy on output and decease the impact of monetary policy on inflation.the more trade liberalization through omitting or decreasing of tarrifs and import quotas are the main suggestions of this study Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
23 - Modeling the Substitution Effects of Taxes on the Size of the Shadow Economy (An Empirical Application for the Iranian Economy)
Mahboobeh FarahatiThe purpose of this study is to examine the effects of substituting different tax items for each other (or changes in tax mix) on the size of the shadow economy in Iran. To this end, a proposed model is estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) appr MoreThe purpose of this study is to examine the effects of substituting different tax items for each other (or changes in tax mix) on the size of the shadow economy in Iran. To this end, a proposed model is estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach for the period 1355-1394. The results show that the substitution of company tax for income tax or commodities tax as well as the substitution of wealth tax for income tax, commodities tax, company tax or import tax reduce the size of the shadow economy. In addition, the substitution of import tax for income tax, corporate tax, or commodities tax leads to a decrease in the size of the shadow economy, while the substitution of commodities tax for income tax has no significant effect on the activities of this sector. The results of this study provide a good basis for adjusting the tax mix to reduce or limit the shadow economy sector in Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
24 - Pricing of participation option in Iran's Social Security Organization (ISSO)'s pension fund
abbas khandan Erfan SalavatiCollective pension schemes with mandatory participation, despite their many benefits, are not commensurate with the future of work so that recently granting exit option has been considered in pension reforms. However, there are concerns about the consequences of grantin MoreCollective pension schemes with mandatory participation, despite their many benefits, are not commensurate with the future of work so that recently granting exit option has been considered in pension reforms. However, there are concerns about the consequences of granting exit option on sustainability of the plans. This study based on the main characteristics of Iran’s Social Security Organization (ISSO)’s pension fund, mathematically calculates the value of participation in this plan. It was assumed that contributors are allowed to opt out once at a given time (European option) or several times during employment (US option) and, then, the option pricing theory is used to determine the value of these options. Findings show that in both cases of European and American options, the incentive to leave generally is low at old ages and they prefer to stay and receive their entitled pension annually. In contrast, young people have less incentive to participate because they know that they are the ones who have to pay the high recovery contributions necessary to fill the deficit. However, it was shown that even young people are willing to accept a deficit (between 30 and 40 percent) because in case of participation, they would benefit from investment returns of their predecessors’ funds or other benefits of collective schemes including interpersonal and intergenerational risk sharing. The results also show that in case of American option, people have always higher participation incentive and its exit threshold is always lower than the case of European option. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
25 - Threshold Effects of Government Size on Happiness Inequality in Iran
Ebrahim Zare mehrzad ebrahimi Abbas Aminifard Hashem ZareHappiness and happiness inequality are important issues that economists have been studying in recent years. However, studies addressing the inequality of happiness are limited, and more research is needed to shed light on its antecedents and mechanism. Th MoreHappiness and happiness inequality are important issues that economists have been studying in recent years. However, studies addressing the inequality of happiness are limited, and more research is needed to shed light on its antecedents and mechanism. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between government size and happiness inequality in the Iranian economy using a threshold regression model during the period of 1974-2016. The results of the estimation of research models show that the size of the government has a threshold effect on happiness inequality. In other words, before the threshold of 13 percent of the government-to-GDP ratio, the government size has a diminutive effect on the inequality of happiness, but after passing through the threshold and increasing the government's involvement in the economy, this variable has a significant positive effect on the happiness inequality. Thus, the expansion of the size of government in the Iranian economy has exacerbated the happiness gap between the low-income and high-income classes of society. Based on the research results, it is suggested that policymakers pay attention to the threshold relationship between government size and inequality of happiness of society when implementing their policies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
26 - The Probability of Default on Payable Facilities of the First Micro Finance Bank in Herat Afghanistan
Mohammad Sadeq Mohammadi Mostafa KarimZadeh Mehdi BehnameThe aim of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the probability of banking facilities default by customers and to determine the main variables coefficient related to the probability of default. Finally, using logit regression, a model has been provided to MoreThe aim of this study is to investigate the factors affecting the probability of banking facilities default by customers and to determine the main variables coefficient related to the probability of default. Finally, using logit regression, a model has been provided to increase the ability of the bank's managers to solve the problem of non-repayment of credit facilities on time. First, 7 variables that had a significant effect on customers' credit risk were identified and fitted to the significance level of 5% of the final model using LR statistics. The results showed that the variables of the borrower's monthly income, the borrower's relationship with the guarantor, the guarantor's guaranteed capital, the borrower's experience and job stability, the loan repayment period and the years of borrower's relationship with the bank, have adverse effect on credit risk and the variable loan amount has a direct effect on credit risk. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
27 - The Effects of Diversification of Industrial Exports on the Instability of Foreign Exchange Earnings in Iran's Industrial
hooman nasiri masoud nonezhad Ali Haghighat Mehrzad EbrahimiThe main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the export diversification in the top industrial sub-sectors and its impact on the volatility of foreign exchange earnings in Iran's industrial sector. Accordingly, quarterly data from 2002-2 to 2 MoreThe main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the export diversification in the top industrial sub-sectors and its impact on the volatility of foreign exchange earnings in Iran's industrial sector. Accordingly, quarterly data from 2002-2 to 2018-3 were collected in the top three industrial sub-sectors of the country and the autoregression method with distributed intervals was used for estimation. The findings indicate the positive effects of inflation and global income on short-term and long-term foreign exchange earnings instability and the effect of concentration index of base metals sub-sector on industrial foreign exchange earnings instability was positive and in non-metallic mineral products and workshop textiles has been negative and significant. Therefore, moving towards diversification in the metals sub-sector and focusing on the non-metallic mineral and textile sub-sectors will reduce the volatility of industrial foreign exchange earnings. Based on the results, it is suggested that the government reduce the instability of industrial foreign exchange earnings by granting facilities, setting export and import customs tariffs in industrial sub-sectors, while directing production in terms of diversification or decentralization. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
28 - Competitiveness of New Cities (Study Sample: Parand New City)
saeed sabooni mostafa behzadfar Hamidreza saremiCompetitiveness is one of the categories that today in scientific, economic, commercial and political circles has found its special place as an indicator for the evaluation of cities in various fields. Although there is not yet a global consensus on indicators and bench MoreCompetitiveness is one of the categories that today in scientific, economic, commercial and political circles has found its special place as an indicator for the evaluation of cities in various fields. Although there is not yet a global consensus on indicators and benchmarks, some international organizations offer competitive rankings of cities by introducing their indicators. Given that new cities have great potential to create competitiveness, so the study of factors affecting the competitiveness of the new city of Parand can be a step towards identifying these factors. This study aims to identify the most effective competitiveness factors of Parand city with a qualitative-quantitative method and using the Granded Theory approach in the qualitative section and with a causal-comparative method answers the question that what are the competitiveness factors of the city and to what extent are they effective in increasing the competitiveness of this city?. In the qualitative stage, 61 concepts were obtained in open coding, which was reduced to 19 main and pivotal concepts in axial coding. In a quantitative stage, a questionnaire was developed based on it. In analyzing the results, it was found that the most important legal and organizational governance is investment, the coefficient of determination of each of which is 1, followed by policy-making with a value of (0.967) and national political space with The value (0.846) is in the next ranks and the lowest of them is justice with the value (0.383). Other indicators had a coefficient of determination in the medium range. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
29 - A Bargaining Game Model for Estimating Efficiency of the Multi-stage Network with Fixed Cost Allocation and its Applications
Kayvan Moradipour Sanaz Asadi Rahmati Elham Abdali In this paper, a bargaining game model is extended to evaluate the efficiency of decision making units with a multi-stage network structure. Moreover, each stage of network data envelopment analysis (DEAN) is considered as a game player. Accordingly, the allocated More In this paper, a bargaining game model is extended to evaluate the efficiency of decision making units with a multi-stage network structure. Moreover, each stage of network data envelopment analysis (DEAN) is considered as a game player. Accordingly, the allocated fixed cost is divided among all the stages such that the best allocation is made to the best stage. With a newer idea, the intermediate stage in the data envelopment analysis of three-stage networks is considered as a common player in the bargaining game, so that the stage plays a significant role in maximizing the performance of network. Next, an alternative approach to allocating a common fixed cost in a multi-stage network based on the bargaining game is proposed. Finally, as direct apllication of the performance of the proposed models some examples are given. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
30 - The Role of Government under Pandemic Disease Conditions
Ali Keshavarzi Hamid Reza Horry seied abdolmajid jalaee sfand abadi Meysam Rafei mahdi nejatiThe purpose of this article is to understand the effect of the outbreak of infectious diseases on the economy and also to analysis the role of government under pandemic crisis conditions. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is used. After ca MoreThe purpose of this article is to understand the effect of the outbreak of infectious diseases on the economy and also to analysis the role of government under pandemic crisis conditions. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is used. After calibrating the parameters based on the quarterly information of Iran's economy during the period of 1991-2016, in the baseline scenario, it is assumed that the government has no involvement in the economy; In other words, the government pursues a state of fiscal passivity and shows no fiscal reaction to the change in endogenous variables after the outbreak of pandemic disease. Subsequently, in other scenarios, the government reacts fiscally to the outbreak of the pandemic, given the different conditions of production and public liability. The results of the study of fiscally active scenarios compared to the state of fiscal passivity indicate that the effect of government expenditures shock as a standard deviation on macroeconomic variables under pandemic disease conditions, has led to much less feedback. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
31 - Economic Modeling of Restricting the cryptocurrency market on ransomware attacks
Mehran Garmehi Sarah Rahimi DevinThe purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of policies restricting access to the cryptocurrency market on the process of countering ransomware attacks. To this purpose, by reflecting on the details of a ransomware attack, we model the economy of these atta MoreThe purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of policies restricting access to the cryptocurrency market on the process of countering ransomware attacks. To this purpose, by reflecting on the details of a ransomware attack, we model the economy of these attacks and examine the impact of economic variables on the damage caused by them, and through the data obtained from a field study, it has been shown that the relationship between attackers' profits and the damage caused by the attack is non-linear and has local maximums and minimums, and any countermeasures in response to these attacks must be carefully considered in the consequences from an economic point of view.The results show that in a ransomware attack, an attacker may achieve almost the same profit by setting several different amounts of ransom and inflicting several different amounts of total damage. Thus, it is demonstrated that it is important not to adopt policies that may lead the attacker to demand the amounts of ransom that cause further damage. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
32 - The Effects of Money Market on Gold Market with a Systemic Dynamics Approach
fatemeh khani Ahmad Jafari Samimi amirmansor tehranchian mohammdali ehsaniAbstract The purpose of this paper is to apply the system dynamics approach to forecasting the price of gold in Iran, identify the factors affecting the price of gold and simulate the trend of the impact of monetary policy on the price of gold in the period 1405-2010. MoreAbstract The purpose of this paper is to apply the system dynamics approach to forecasting the price of gold in Iran, identify the factors affecting the price of gold and simulate the trend of the impact of monetary policy on the price of gold in the period 1405-2010. The simulation is performed with Wenzim software. In different scenarios, the present paper simulates the change in liquidity volume, consumer price index and bank interest rates on the gold market. The results show that the price of gold is not only affected by the global ounce price and the value of the dollar, but also the control of liquidity and curbing inflation will play a significant role in stabilizing the gold market. The results confirm that the volume of liquidity and the consumer price index have a direct impact and a significant role in increasing the price of gold. The findings also show that changes in bank interest rates have no effect on changes in gold prices. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
33 - Interactions of Transportation, Economic Growth and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Iran
mahsa kalantarzadeh fatemeh zandi Mohammad Khezri Bijan SafaviThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the interrelationships between transportation (rail and air), economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Iran during the period 1362-1397 using time series data and the system of simultaneous equation approach. The findin MoreThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the interrelationships between transportation (rail and air), economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Iran during the period 1362-1397 using time series data and the system of simultaneous equation approach. The findings show a positive correlation between transportation (rail and air) and economic growth, as well as between transportation (rail and air) and carbon dioxide emissions. Another finding of this study is that economic growth has a significant effect on increasing carbon dioxide emissions, but increasing carbon dioxide emissions has no effect on economic growth. Based on the results, the creation and development of infrastructure related to the type of transportation in order to improve the country's economic growth is proposed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
34 - The Effect of Fiscal Policy on Unemployment and Inflation in Provinces of Iran: A GVAR Approach
Nasrin Ebrahimi Mehdi Pedram Mir Hussein MousaviAbstract Since Iran is a regionally dispersed country, this motivates us to analyze whether or not a national fiscal policy has different effects on its provinces’ unemployment and inflation rates using a GVAR approach during 2005:q1-2016:q1 period. The results in MoreAbstract Since Iran is a regionally dispersed country, this motivates us to analyze whether or not a national fiscal policy has different effects on its provinces’ unemployment and inflation rates using a GVAR approach during 2005:q1-2016:q1 period. The results indicate that one positive standard error as national fiscal shock can significantly reduce unemployment in some provinces. These responses are similar in terms of timing but their amount is different. Also, this positive shock has a negative effect on inflation in some provinces. All responses are approximately similar in terms of timing. In Spite of this similarity, shock responses vary in terms of amount. According to the results in the framework of the models designed in this study, it is proposed that policymakers include the decentralization in the budget planning. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
35 - The Effect of Changes in the Productivity of Economic Sectors on the Consumption of Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy, Thermal Energy, Economic Growth and Development
mohammad oveicy Masoud Homayounifar Sayed Mahdi Mostafavi Ali Akbar Naji MeidaniThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of productivity changes in economic sectors on renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, heat energy, economic growth and development using estimation of production functions by Tong and Peng method (2018) in MoreThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of productivity changes in economic sectors on renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, heat energy, economic growth and development using estimation of production functions by Tong and Peng method (2018) in the framework of scenario making technique (including three scenarios). The results showed that the nine sectors of the total economy and their productivity in the period 1353 - 1393 is between 3.175 to 4.59 million Rials; Therefore, the starting point of productivity is the lower limit of productivity of the performance range of 3.175. Also, in the sectors of economy, industry and mining, electricity (power plants) and construction, even with a 30% increase in the lower limit, the productivity of the whole economy is not in the operating range (3.175). Based on the results, it is suggested that planners, managers and economic policy makers increase the productivity of the industry and mining, power plant and construction sectors by more than 30% by changing the technology in order to achieve the appropriate amount of economic growth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
36 - Estimation of gasoline, electricity and gas demand system for urban households of Iran
Aliakbar KhosravinejadThe purpose of this paper is to estimate the income, price and crossover elasticity's of energy carriers of Iranian urban households. For this purpose, the demand system of energy carriers including gasoline, household electricity and household gas for urban households MoreThe purpose of this paper is to estimate the income, price and crossover elasticity's of energy carriers of Iranian urban households. For this purpose, the demand system of energy carriers including gasoline, household electricity and household gas for urban households is estimated from the combined household-year data with 77758 households during the years 2016-2017. The distinguishing feature of this article is the use of monthly price index data along with cross-sectional household budget data. The results show that gasoline, household electricity and household gas are among the essential goods. Of these three commodities, gasoline and household electricity are estimated to be elastic and gas domestic is elastic. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
37 - The Effect of the Comparative Advantage of Economic Activities on the GDP of the Provinces
Seiedeh Narges Aghamohammadi Golamali Haji hadi ghafari peyman ghafari ashtianiAlthough economic growth is affected by the growth of factors of production, but according to the pattern of endogenous growth, other variables also affect economic growth. In this study, the effect of the comparative advantage of different activities on the GDP of the MoreAlthough economic growth is affected by the growth of factors of production, but according to the pattern of endogenous growth, other variables also affect economic growth. In this study, the effect of the comparative advantage of different activities on the GDP of the provinces in the period 2004-2014 has been used. For this purpose, the data of statistical yearbooks and regional accounts of the Statistics Center of Iran for 30 provinces have been used. The estimation of the models has been evaluated in the form of a dynamic panel model using the GMM technique. The results of estimating the models confirm that the comparative advantage index in the three major sectors of agriculture, construction and services have a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of the provinces by 0.49, 0.08 and 0.07 percent, respectively. While the index of comparative advantage of industry, mining and energy sector shows a negative impact of 0.15 on the economic growth of the provinces, this negative impact can be due to the greater impact of other sectors on the GDP of the provinces. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
38 - Relationship between Public and Private Investment in Iran (Analyzing the Crowding-Out or Crowding-In Effects)
Esmaeel SafarzadehThe main objective of this paper is to analyze empirically the effects of public investment on private investment, evaluating the existence of crowding-out/-in effects, in Iran for the 1970-2019 periods. I evaluate the macroeconomic effects of public and private investm MoreThe main objective of this paper is to analyze empirically the effects of public investment on private investment, evaluating the existence of crowding-out/-in effects, in Iran for the 1970-2019 periods. I evaluate the macroeconomic effects of public and private investment through VECM analysis. From impulse response functions, we are able to assess the extent of crowding-in or crowding-out of both components of investment. I also compute the associated macroeconomic rates of return of public and private investment for Iran Economy. The results point to the existence of positive effects of public and private investment on output. On the other hand, results show the crowding-in effects of public investment on private investment. Based on these results, it is suggested that the government provide the conditions for private investment by creating infrastructure, helping to finance investment projects and creating a secure economic environment. I also compute the associated macroeconomic rates of return of public and private investment for Iran Economy. The results point to the existence of positive effects of public and private investment on output. On the other hand, results show the crowding-in effects of public investment on private investment. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
39 - Estimation of Urban and Rural Poverty and Inequality concerning Hormozgan Province compared with the Country as a Whole
Hosein Heidari esmael aboonoori Ahmad Jafari Samimi younes nademiIn this paper we have estimated the urban and rural poverty and inequality trends for the important Hormozgan province and for the country as a whole concerning the period 1984-2019. Doing so, we have used the micro income-expenditure survey data published annuall MoreIn this paper we have estimated the urban and rural poverty and inequality trends for the important Hormozgan province and for the country as a whole concerning the period 1984-2019. Doing so, we have used the micro income-expenditure survey data published annually by the Statistical Center of Iran and estimated the non-parametric Gini coefficient, poverty line and then poverty gaps. Then, in order to compare the urban and rural poverty as well as inequality levels regarding Hormozgan with that of the country as a whole, we have used 6 simple regression ANOVA models. The results indicate that the urban poverty and inequality levels have been significantly lower than that of in the rural areas. Poverty in Hormozgan urban and rural areas have been significantly more than urban and rural areas of the country as a whole, respectively. However, the Inequality in Hormozgan urban and rural areas have significantly less than those in the country as a whole, respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
40 - Analysis of Driver-Police Interaction Using Game Theory
faramarz masoumzadeh Kiumars shahbaziIn this study, the strategic interaction between traffic police and the driver is analyzed using game theory in the form of a two-stage dynamic game with incomplete information that the type of players is determined by nature. In the first stage, the police decide wheth MoreIn this study, the strategic interaction between traffic police and the driver is analyzed using game theory in the form of a two-stage dynamic game with incomplete information that the type of players is determined by nature. In the first stage, the police decide whether to fine or not, and in the second stage, the driver decides whether to pay a bribe or not. The driver compares the amount of the fine and the cost of the bribe. It can be concluded that the more lawful the police, the lower the bribe payment. Punishment of bribe recipients and payers can also prevent bribery and help eradicate possible corruption in this important organ of the country. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
41 - Shock Modeling of Influencing Variables on Stock Return Forecasting with the Approach of BMA-BVR Models
Majid Abdi Seied Atefe Hosseini Amir Gholam AbriThe purpose of the research is to predict stock returns using Bayesian averaging and BVAR. The current research is based on the applied research method and MATLAB 2021 and EVIEWS12 have been used to estimate the model. The time period of the research includes the years MoreThe purpose of the research is to predict stock returns using Bayesian averaging and BVAR. The current research is based on the applied research method and MATLAB 2021 and EVIEWS12 have been used to estimate the model. The time period of the research includes the years 2010 to 2019. First, 11 non-fragile variables out of 64 entered variables were identified with the Bayesian averaging model approach. Based on the results of the current ratio; ROE; P/E; oil revenue; The increasing coefficient of money in the whole period has a positive effect and inflation fluctuation variables; debt ratio; fluctuation of GDP growth; unofficial market exchange rate; Interest rate and systematic risk have a negative effect on yield in the whole period. Based on the results of variance analysis, the most explanatory of changes in stock returns is caused by the variable itself (20 percent), followed by interest rate variables (14 percent); Inflation volatility (13 percent) and debt ratio and systematic risk (10 percent) have the highest effect in explaining yield changes. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
42 - Analysis of the Effect of News Shocks Related to the Future Technology on on on Economic Welfare
mohammad alibegli nader mehregan alireza erfaniThe present article aimed to understand the effect of news shocks related to the technology on macroeconomic variables. In this regard, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was used to analyze the reaction of macroeconomic variables in Iran based on seasonal d MoreThe present article aimed to understand the effect of news shocks related to the technology on macroeconomic variables. In this regard, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was used to analyze the reaction of macroeconomic variables in Iran based on seasonal data during 2001-2021. The results indicate that the news shocks increases the productivity of all production factors within one standard deviation. This increase escalates the wage rate as well as the interest rate. Household consumption, production and investment also increase opposing this shock. Due to the increase in production, the working hours will increase and consequently the inflation will decrease. Moreover, the economic prosperity grows due to the increased consumption and production. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
43 - Modeling Extreme Dependence of Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) to Crude Oil Price: An Approach based on Copula Functions
Hamid Abrishami Mohsen Mehara Mojtaba MohammadianThe objective of this study is to model the extreme dependence structure from the crude oil price to Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) index. For this purpose, the conditional extreme value theory (C-EVT) was used to model the marginal distribution of returns on stock and oil MoreThe objective of this study is to model the extreme dependence structure from the crude oil price to Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) index. For this purpose, the conditional extreme value theory (C-EVT) was used to model the marginal distribution of returns on stock and oil market during the period 2008 to 2021. Then, the dependence structure of the extreme return was estimated by Copula models. The results showed that the crude oil market has contagion effects on the TSE. These effects are asymmetric and there is more dependence on the left tail. In other words, as crude oil price falls, decline of the total index is expected and these effects are greater when a positive simultaneous change occurs between variables. Due to the financial risks of the existence of contagion, considering structural extreme dependence can calculate the portfolio risk accurately and reliably. Therefore, it is suggested to pay attention to the structure of extreme dependencies between assets in order to optimize the portfolio. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
44 - Factors Causing Oil Price Shocks With Emphasis on the Behavior of Large Producers
Jalal Dehnavi Mir Hossein MousaviThe aim of the article is to present a new approach to the analysis of oil price shocks and, of course, a better explanation of oil wars. To achieve the goal, the structural vector autoregression model based on the Kilian (2009) model has been used with the aim of model MoreThe aim of the article is to present a new approach to the analysis of oil price shocks and, of course, a better explanation of oil wars. To achieve the goal, the structural vector autoregression model based on the Kilian (2009) model has been used with the aim of modeling oil market shocks during the period of 1985-2019. The results showed that the recent price war, due to the significant growth of the US oil supply (supply shock) and its simultaneous with the spread of the corona virus (demand shock), has caused a sharp decrease in the price of oil and shortened the price war period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
45 - An Empirical Test of the Financial Kuznets Curve Hypothesis for Iran
Mahboobeh Farahati Leyla SalimiThe Kuznets curve hypothesis of a nonlinear relationship between economic growth and income inequality has been widely tested for different countries. However, the factors influencing such a relationship that determine the position of the Kuznets curve have been neglect MoreThe Kuznets curve hypothesis of a nonlinear relationship between economic growth and income inequality has been widely tested for different countries. However, the factors influencing such a relationship that determine the position of the Kuznets curve have been neglected. One of these factors is financial development, which according to the financial Kuznets curve hypothesis, is inversely associated to the level of economic growth at which income inequality peaks (ie, the turning point of the Kuznets curve). This study empirically tests the financial Kuznets curve hypothesis in the Iranian economy using data for the period 1361-1397. To this end, real GDP per capita and Gini coefficient have been used as indices of economic growth and income inequality, respectively. In addition, several indices of financial development have been aggregated into an overall (combined) index, using the principal component analysis method. The empirical results indicate that in the long-run, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and income inequality, thus confirming the Kuznets curve hypothesis. In addition, the turning point of the Kuznets curve will be at lower level of economic growth when the level of financial development is higher. These findings provide evidence to support the long-run financial Kuznets hypothesis for Iran. Accordingly, it is suggested that economic planners and policymakers, in parallel with growth policies, improve the level of financial development, aimed at a more equitable distribution of income. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
46 - Investigating the Interactive Effects of Monetary and Macroprudential Policies on the Stability of the Banking System: Evidence from Iranian Economy
Leila Pashazadeh Hossein Asgharpur Sakineh Sojoodi Zahra Karimi TakanlouThe main objective of this study is to investigate the interactive effects of monetary and macroprudential policies on the stability of Iranian banking system. For this purpose, the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies and interactive of these two policies h MoreThe main objective of this study is to investigate the interactive effects of monetary and macroprudential policies on the stability of Iranian banking system. For this purpose, the effects of monetary and macroprudential policies and interactive of these two policies have been evaluated using the annual time series data of 24 private and government banks of Iran during the period of 2007-2019 and using generalized moments method (GMM).The results show that the monetary policies have significantly caused the instability of the banking system, and the macroprudential policies have significantly increased the stability of the banks. Also, empirical findings of the research show that, the interaction of monetary policies and macroprudential has a positive and significant effect on the stability of banks. This result indicates that the implementation of macro reserve policies in Iran has caused the effects of monetary policies to be modified on the instability of banks. Hence, it is necessary for the economic policy makers to consider these interactions when designing monetary and macro prudential policy interventions. In fact, economic policymakers are advised to use macroprudential policies to strengthen the stability of the banking system when implementing expansionary monetary policies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
47 - Improving the Efficiency of Household Electricity Consumption and Its Return Effect in Iran In Terms Of Asymmetry in Electricity Prices
azar alidadi pour musa khoshkalam khosroshahiThe purpose of this paper is to estimate the size of the direct return effect related to electricity consumption in the domestic sector of Iran in terms of asymmetry in electricity prices using the conventional least squares method. For this purpose, and considering the MoreThe purpose of this paper is to estimate the size of the direct return effect related to electricity consumption in the domestic sector of Iran in terms of asymmetry in electricity prices using the conventional least squares method. For this purpose, and considering the separation of electricity prices based on the Dargi and Gitley (1995) study, annual data for the period 1397-1347 and estimating the elasticity of electricity demand have been used. The results showed that first, improving the efficiency of household electricity consumption has a return effect and second, the return effect in the household sector is equal to 43%; That is, with a 10% increase in home appliance technology, 4.3% of the expected reserve due to the improvement of electricity consumption efficiency did not occur and this amount appeared in the form of a return effect and only 5.7% of the expected reserve in electricity consumption was realized. Based on the findings, it is suggested that economic policymakers, by accurately estimating the return effect, while achieving the goal of saving electricity consumption, also avoid wasting resources. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
48 - Industrial endogenous development in Iran and selected countries
Mirabdollah Hosseini Lotfali AgheliThis paper attempts to conceptualize and examine regional endogenous development model for World’s regions and Iran. The work presented here contributes to the design of Manufacturing Industries endogenous development model (MIEDM) which is tested in the World by MoreThis paper attempts to conceptualize and examine regional endogenous development model for World’s regions and Iran. The work presented here contributes to the design of Manufacturing Industries endogenous development model (MIEDM) which is tested in the World by assessing the domestic forces and drivers of development based in World Selected Countries. The paper introduces a conceptual model for the study and then develops and tests the model with data for the primary Countries of the World. Large and positive correlation is found between measures of latent and explanatory independent and dependent variables in the regional endogenous model. Specifically it is found that such endogenous factors as Institution, human Capital, Entrepreneurship, Leadership, Innovation and Resource Endowment are critical driving force for achieving increased regional productivity and thus tailoring of polices to support regional endogenous development. Based on the results, it is suggested that planners and policy makers consider the capacity and ability of industries to adapt positively to the situation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
49 - The Role of Boom and Recession in Energy Consumption of Sectors with Emphasis on Electricity and Non-Electricity
shahryar zaroki Akram Moghadasi SedehiThe purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of boom and recession with energy prices on energy consumption (electricity, non-electricity and total) in Iran with an asymmetric method. For this purpose, for asymmetric analysis in the research model in three for MoreThe purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of boom and recession with energy prices on energy consumption (electricity, non-electricity and total) in Iran with an asymmetric method. For this purpose, for asymmetric analysis in the research model in three formats (based on total energy consumption, non-electricity and electricity) and five levels (total economy and household, commercial, public and industrial sectors) of asymmetric explanations, an nonlinesr autoregressive distributed lag approach has been used. Long-term results indicate that economic boom in every 15 estimates has a direct impact on energy consumption and in terms of size, in most cases, the elasticity of energy consumption relative to economic boom is greater than one. However, the recession is associated with a significant (and of course direct) effect in only 4 out of 15 estimates, and its impact is less than the economic boom. In the first format, at the level of the whole economy and at the level of the commercial, public and industrial sectors, production has an asymmetric effect, and at the household level, production has a symmetrical effect on total energy consumption. In the second format, at the level of the whole economy and at the level of the household, commercial and public sectors, production has an asymmetric effect and at the industry level, production has a symmetrical effect on non-electricity energy consumption. In the third format, at all five levels, production has an asymmetric effect on electricity consumption. The real energy price, although in ... Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
50 - An analysis of the automatic stabilization of direct and indirect taxes in Iran
mohammad taghi gilak hakim abadi Ali MehreganIn this paper the effect of direct and indirect taxes on the fluctuations of Iran's economic cycles has been studied. To estimate the models of this research, Vector Auto Regression method by quarterly data from q1-1372 to q3-1397. The results of this study are that, un MoreIn this paper the effect of direct and indirect taxes on the fluctuations of Iran's economic cycles has been studied. To estimate the models of this research, Vector Auto Regression method by quarterly data from q1-1372 to q3-1397. The results of this study are that, unlike empirical, direct taxes have not had a significant effect on reducing fluctuations in economic cycles. Also, the effect of indirect taxes on economic cycles is faster than direct taxes. Based on the results, it is suggested to use more of the country's tax capacity to better perform the government's stabilizing task in the economy, especially the reform of tax bases. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
51 - The Analysis of Political Institutions’ Effect on the Economic Institutions in Resource-rich Countries
Reza Bakhshiani Masud Nili S. Mahdi BarakchianThe weak economic performance of resource-rich countries results in the economic studies’ great concentration on the role of institutions in resource curse literature and employment of theoretical or empirical approaches to determine the cause of this phenomenon. MoreThe weak economic performance of resource-rich countries results in the economic studies’ great concentration on the role of institutions in resource curse literature and employment of theoretical or empirical approaches to determine the cause of this phenomenon. In this paper, we argue that the two independent variables of political institutions and natural resources influence the economic institutions which are endogenous variables; by applying a descriptive-analytical approach and making distinction between function of “economic institutions” and “political institutions”. Political institutions form the political power structure to specify the elites’ scope of power in the establishment of favorable economic institutions, which aim at distributing the resources among the affiliated groups. We also use the empirical approach to show that natural resources do not have any significant effect on the quality of economic institutions by controlling the effect of political institutions. In contrast, the better quality of political institutions results in the better quality of economic institutions. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
52 - Government Debt and Corporate Capital Structure: Testing of the Financial Crowding Out Effect Hypothesis
somaye sadeghiThis paper examines the relationship between government debt and corporate capital structures (financing choices) for firms listed in Tehran stock market, during 1390-98. The results show that the there is a negative and significant relationship between government debt MoreThis paper examines the relationship between government debt and corporate capital structures (financing choices) for firms listed in Tehran stock market, during 1390-98. The results show that the there is a negative and significant relationship between government debt and corporate capital structure (financial leverage), although the estimated coefficient is relatively small. In other words, we can conclude that the financial crowding out effect is confirmed in Iranian companies. Also, the results show that corporate with larger size and more profitable are more likely to react to changes in government debt. In other words, if corporates have larger size and more profitability, then the financial crowding out effect is greater. Hence, the key conclusion is corporate managers should prioritize revenue diversification and profitability strategies in the reaction to government debt policies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
53 - Spillover Effects of Trade and Exchange Rates Shocks from Iran`s Major Trading Partners: GVAR approach
Aziz Saki Seyed Aziz Arman hasan farazmandThis article deals with how trade and exchange rates shocks of major trading partners affect the Iranian economy. For this purpose, quarterly data of 10 major Iranian trading countries, including Brazil, China, Germany, India, Italy, Korea, Turkey, Russia, UAE and Switz MoreThis article deals with how trade and exchange rates shocks of major trading partners affect the Iranian economy. For this purpose, quarterly data of 10 major Iranian trading countries, including Brazil, China, Germany, India, Italy, Korea, Turkey, Russia, UAE and Switzerland during the period 1996 to 2019 has been used. Econometric parameters has been estimated by Global Vector Autoregressive approach.The modeling results show that the increase in the real exchange rate in Brazil, in some cases, increases the real exchange rate in Iran. Rising real exchange rate in China first reduces and then increases the real exchange rate in Iran. In addition, Increasing China's trade increases the level of Iran's trade. According to the results, when Iran's imports from a country are higher, it is more affected by exchange rate shocks in that country, which can be seen in response to real exchange rate shocks in China. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
54 - Role of Financial Development in Monetary Policy Effectiveness in determinate of Input and inflation
Seyedeh Maryam Monfared Teymoor Mohammadi mohammad khezri Oranoos ParivarThe purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of financial development on efficiency of monetary policy in Iran during 1979-2020. The ratio of banks' domestic credit to GDP was considered as an indicator of financial development based on banking sector and rati MoreThe purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of financial development on efficiency of monetary policy in Iran during 1979-2020. The ratio of banks' domestic credit to GDP was considered as an indicator of financial development based on banking sector and ratio of the value of stock market transactions to GDP was considered as an indicator of financial development based on the capital market. In this regard, 4 models were introduced to achieve research objectives and were estimated using the Kalman-Filter approach. The results of estimating the first two models of the research showed that with improvement of financial development indicators, the efficiency of monetary policy in influencing economic growth will decrease. The results of estimating the third and fourth models of the study also showed that effect of financial development indicators on efficiency of monetary policy in impact on inflation has been negative and statistically significant, meaning that with improvement of financial development indicators in country, monetary policies will lead to lower inflation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
55 - Analysis the Effect of Inefficiency in Labor Investment on Tax Avoidance in a Selection of Export Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange
shahryar zaroki Mohamad Abdi Seyyedkolaee sudabe BararjaniTax avoidance reduces the outflow of cash from the company to the government, which from the past to the present is considered a value for shareholders. Therefore, considering such a necessity, the present study, in order to help tax administrators, examines the effects MoreTax avoidance reduces the outflow of cash from the company to the government, which from the past to the present is considered a value for shareholders. Therefore, considering such a necessity, the present study, in order to help tax administrators, examines the effects of investment inefficiency in the labor force on corporate tax avoidance activities for a sample of 64 export companies in Iran during the period of 2009 to 2019. For this purpose, in two stages, Dynamic Panel Data method and Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) estimator were used; in this way, first, the inefficiency of investment in labor was estimated and then its effect on corporate tax avoidance was estimated. The results of estimating the research model indicate the direct effect of investment inefficiency in the workforce on corporate tax avoidance. In addition, the results showed that the market value and size of the company are associated with a direct and inverse effect on tax avoidance, respectively. Thus, increasing ambiguity, a weaker control environment, and a reduction in expected cash flows due to inefficient investment in the workforce provide opportunities for the company's manager to increase tax avoidance, and tax policymakers need to pay special attention to this issue. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
56 - Modeling DB-PAYG, Full Funded and Defined Contributions Pension Systems in Iran's Economy
Hamid Rezazadeh mostafa sargolzaei Moslem Peymany Foroushany Hossein Tavakolian Meysam AmiriThe present study simulates and compares three types of pension systems, DB-PAYG, Full Funded and Defined Contributions, and their impact on Iran’s macroeconomic variables. For this purpose, the General Equilibrium model of Overlapping Generations is designed base MoreThe present study simulates and compares three types of pension systems, DB-PAYG, Full Funded and Defined Contributions, and their impact on Iran’s macroeconomic variables. For this purpose, the General Equilibrium model of Overlapping Generations is designed based on the variables of the Iran economy. The results showed that the Full Funded pension system performs better than other systems in terms of capital stock, output and welfare. Also, among these three systems, the DB-PAYG system has the lowest amount of capital stock, output and welfare. Therefore, changing the current pension system of the country to a Full Funded pension system has been proposed as a reformed fiscal policy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
57 - The effect of bank credit composition on income distribution in developing countries
Ali Nasiri Aghdam mitra babapour The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of different types of bank loans on income inequality in the economies of 24 selected developing countries using the econometric method of panel data during the period 2000-2019. The results showed that credit More The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of different types of bank loans on income inequality in the economies of 24 selected developing countries using the econometric method of panel data during the period 2000-2019. The results showed that credits to the non-financial sector as well as consumption reduce inequality and credits to the financial and housing sectors increase inequality. Lending to the non-financial sector has also been declining, and lending to the consumer, financial and mortgage sectors has been on the rise. The findings also showed that the employment rate and housing prices, respectively, affect the effect of loans granted to the non-financial and housing sectors on income inequality. It is recommended to allocate a significant portion of the credit to non-financial activates and to avoid lending for speculative housing activities. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
58 - The effect of oil shocks on economic resilience in Iran
najme alsadat robati Ali RaeispourRajabali Abdol Majid jalaeeIn the field of the new Keynesian school, this paper has been specified and estimated by the method of stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model in the small open export economy, in accordance with the structure of Iran's economy. Using the simulation results of the MoreIn the field of the new Keynesian school, this paper has been specified and estimated by the method of stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model in the small open export economy, in accordance with the structure of Iran's economy. Using the simulation results of the main model, while using the estimated parameters, the effects of oil shocks in recent years on selected macroeconomic variables have been evaluated. Determining the degree to which oil revenues affect economic indicators can, in addition to determining the degree of economic resilience, help policymakers determine future plans. The phenomenon of fluctuations in foreign exchange earnings from oil exports, due to the dependence of the structure of Iran's economy on oil revenues, affects all macroeconomic variables - both in the public and private sectors. Accordingly, it is proposed to reform the tax system and reduce dependence on oil revenues, diversify the government's revenue portfolio, commit to a balanced budget and prevent disproportionate growth of the monetary base, strengthen the role of the foreign exchange reserve fund and monetary discipline for the government. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
59 - Identifying Propellant Regions and Activities in Generating Potential VAT Capacity
afsaneh sherkat aliasghar banouei esfandiar jahangard ali nasiri aghdamThe main purpose of the article is to Identify of regions and activities that create greater potential value added tax for themselves and others. For this purpose, the column coefficient approach is used to calculate the input-output table of 9 regions including 24 acti MoreThe main purpose of the article is to Identify of regions and activities that create greater potential value added tax for themselves and others. For this purpose, the column coefficient approach is used to calculate the input-output table of 9 regions including 24 activities for 2011. Findings indicate that although at the macro level, smaller regions create more potential value added tax capacity than larger ones, at the economic activity level, there is no direct relation between the share of value added of an activity and the potential VAT capacity of that activity. Based on the results, it is suggested that policy makers and regional planners pay special attention to the structure of the economy and the nature of the activities of that region. Also, the focus of regional development policies should be shifted to smaller areas that are more in line with space-based theories. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
60 - The effects of information and communication technology on long-term productivity growth: Evidence from Iran's manufacturing industries
mahmoud rezaee seraji Mahmoud Mahmoudzadeh parvaneh salatin mehdi fathabadiThe purpose of this paper is to measure the average share of information and communication technology in long-term productivity growth and as well as the increasing intensity of ICT index in Iran's manufacturing industries at the level of double-digit codes (ISIC). For MoreThe purpose of this paper is to measure the average share of information and communication technology in long-term productivity growth and as well as the increasing intensity of ICT index in Iran's manufacturing industries at the level of double-digit codes (ISIC). For this purpose, the expanded growth accounting model in the period2005-2018was exploited. The research findings revealed that : The effects of ICT has a significant positive effect on the average long-term productivity growth in Iran's manufacturing industries. ICT's share of long-term productivity growth in The most intensive contribution of ICT has been recognized for coke and related products, electrical equipment and chemicals and related products. This effect has shown more than any other manufacturing industries in Iran and this amount has also improved over time. The lowest share of ICT in productivity growth in the long run is related to furniture, clothing and machinery and not classified equipments. The results also showed that the average value of increasing ICT intensity index is insignificant meaning the more and with increasing intensity of ICT use, the more intense effect on productivity growth increases. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
61 - Modeling and Designing Controller of Factors Affecting Profit in Strategic Financial Planning Using Adaptive Neural Control Method
zahra sadeghi mohammad areza motadel abbas toloieMaking more profit in organizations requires them to have accurate tools to strengthen the business for proper financial planning. So far, no comprehensive model for the financial planning of organizations with minimum deviation from predefined goals has been presented. MoreMaking more profit in organizations requires them to have accurate tools to strengthen the business for proper financial planning. So far, no comprehensive model for the financial planning of organizations with minimum deviation from predefined goals has been presented. The purpose of this study is to provide such a model to achieve more accurate management decisions. In this research, an intelligent adaptive control model has been developed using the Elman neural network adaptation algorithm in the system identification process. This model has been developed using data extracted from the official website of the Iranian Stock Exchange and Securities Organization. Some of the most important indicators of profit (as a measure of the company's financial performance) and also optimal profit amount as input and the allowable intervals of its changes to achieve the desired profit as output of the model have been determined and examined. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
62 - The Effects of Corruption on Financial Inclusion (A System Generalized Method of Moments approach)
Farzad Rahimzadeh Siamak Shokouhifard Hatef Hazeri NiriThe purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of corruption on financial inclusion in Iran and selected member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation during the period 2005- 2020. For this purpose, three variables have been used to measure finan MoreThe purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of corruption on financial inclusion in Iran and selected member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation during the period 2005- 2020. For this purpose, three variables have been used to measure financial inclusion and three separate models were estimated. The results of model estimation using the System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) showed that at a significant level of 5%, lagged financial inclusion, the level of per capita GDP and education have a positive and significant effect on financial inclusion. Also, the impact of corruption on financial inclusion is negative and significant. At a significance level of 5%, the expansion of Internet users and mobile subscribers has a positive and significant effect on financial inclusion. The high share of women in the total population has a significant and negative effect on financial inclusion. Based on the results, it is suggested that policymakers reduce the level of corruption and increase financial inclusion by reducing wide monopolies, eliminating the rent, improving the quality of regulations and creating widespread transparency. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
63 - Information and communication technology and environmental quality (Evidence from the countries of the Economic Co-operation and Development Organization)
Maryam Taiiari mahmood mahmoodzadeh Mir Hossein MousaviThe purpose of this article is to evaluate the effects of information and communication technology on the quality of the environment (publication pollutant gases, carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases) and ecological footprint (from three aspects of the effect individual, MoreThe purpose of this article is to evaluate the effects of information and communication technology on the quality of the environment (publication pollutant gases, carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases) and ecological footprint (from three aspects of the effect individual, country reserves trend and land type) in member countries of the Economic Co-operation and development Organization is using the panel data method in the time period of 1992-2018.The results showed Expanding the use of ICT in the mentioned countries has a positive effect on improving the quality of the environment And It has reduced the emission of carbon dioxide, greenhouse gases and ecological footprint.Furthermore, the consequences of ICT on the quality of the environment in the long term have been more than in the short term. Therefore, the findings showed that the substitution effect of ICT (substitution of online activities) compared to Income effect (increased leisure time from the substitution effect and increased travel demand) in the case study has been dominant. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
64 - Agent-based Simulation of Entry and Exit of Production Firms in Supplier-Dominated Industries
Zahra Asadollahi Sohi Hossein RaghfarThis article explores how different factors influence the number and dynamics of firms in supplier-dominated industries. These industries are typically traditional, small, and depend on external suppliers for innovation. The article uses a hybrid simulation of system dy MoreThis article explores how different factors influence the number and dynamics of firms in supplier-dominated industries. These industries are typically traditional, small, and depend on external suppliers for innovation. The article uses a hybrid simulation of system dynamics and agent-based modeling to capture the realistic assumptions that firms do not have complete market information and make decisions based on simple heuristics and past and current conditions. The article conducts experiments to examine how initial conditions, machine life, economic parameters, producer optimism, production growth rate, and demand elasticity affect the entry and exit patterns and the number of firms in the industry. The article uses variables such as the time to reach the peak number of firms, the number of firms at the peak, and the number of firms at the end of the simulation period to represent the shape of the industry distribution. The experiments show that the initial number of firms, demand elasticity, machine life, and financial resources have the most significant effects on the distribution shape, while other factors such as economic growth also have some nonlinear effects. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
65 - The Impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) on Social Security Resources in Iran
Soheila Sobhani Mohammad Hassan Fotros Golamali Haji Esmael TorkamaniThe impact of the development of information and communication technology on the labor market and social security has been the focus of international labor and social security organizations. This study examines the impact of ICT on Social Security Resources in the conte MoreThe impact of the development of information and communication technology on the labor market and social security has been the focus of international labor and social security organizations. This study examines the impact of ICT on Social Security Resources in the context of Iran’s economy during the period 1999 to 2019, using the Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, focused on duality of labor market (formal and informal). The results of the study show that the development of information and communication technology affects social security resources by changing the structure of employment. A survey on the variables response to the positive impulse of ICT shows that the further increase in job opportunities in the informal sector provides more access to jobs in this sector and increasing in the participation rate, the number of informal workers increases. The finding show increasing in informal employment causes an increase in the lost resources of social security. Based on the results, it is suggested that policymakers and insurance funds develop flexible programs in order to expand insurance coverage and support informal workers with the participation of employers and the government. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
66 - The Effect of Political Variable on the Relationship between Seignorage and Income Inequality: the Case Study of Selected OECD and D8 Countries
Vahid Taghinezhadomran Zahra Mila Elmi Mobin RamezanpourThe most important instrument of the government to finance public expenditures and to improve the distribution of tax revenues is tax. High reliance of government on seignorage can reduce the role of taxes in correcting the inequalities. Improving the political variable MoreThe most important instrument of the government to finance public expenditures and to improve the distribution of tax revenues is tax. High reliance of government on seignorage can reduce the role of taxes in correcting the inequalities. Improving the political variable of the voice and accountability by less reliance on seignorage and more reliance on taxes can improve income distribution.The main purpose of this study is to investigate and test this hypothesis with the help of data from selected OECD and D8countriesperiod 2018-2008 using the fully modified least squares method (FMOLS). The results of model estimation showed that the political variables of accountability can improve the distribution of income in the studied countries by reducing the government's reliance on seignorage. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
67 - The effect of private and government investment on the growth of the health sector in Iran
Mehraneh Shamshirbandi mohamad dalman pour Farid AsgariThis study estimated the effect of private and government investment on the growth of the health sector in Iran with the ARDL approach, 1981-2019. The selected indicators were estimated in two selected indicators: health expenditure and health index (life expectancy). T MoreThis study estimated the effect of private and government investment on the growth of the health sector in Iran with the ARDL approach, 1981-2019. The selected indicators were estimated in two selected indicators: health expenditure and health index (life expectancy). The estimation results of the model show that the increase in economic growth, causes an increase health expenditures and the increase of private sector investment in the health sector, causes an increase health expenditures and the increase of private sector and government investment in the health sector, improve the Health index. In the long term, the rate of AIDS and the inflation rate have a negative effect on health expenditure and health index; and the literacy rate, the urbanization rate, the real exchange rate, and the real interest rate have a positive effect on health expenditure and health index. The results of this study, consist with other researches, showed that by focusing on investment, the growth of the health sector in Iran improves. The findings of this study can be used to implement a more efficient policy in the way and type of investment in the health sector. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
68 - Portfolio Optimization in Iran Stock Market: Reinforcement Learning Approach
mahdi esfandiar mohammadali keramati Reza Gholami Jamkarani Kashefy NeishabouriThe concepts of portfolio optimization and diversification have become a tool for developing and understanding financial markets and financial decision making. The purpose of this paper is to use algorithmic trading with a focus on reinforcement learning approach in ord MoreThe concepts of portfolio optimization and diversification have become a tool for developing and understanding financial markets and financial decision making. The purpose of this paper is to use algorithmic trading with a focus on reinforcement learning approach in order to optimize the portfolio of selected stocks. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of data type, quantitative and in terms of method, descriptive and exploratory and from the perspective of research plan, it is a post-event. The statistical population of this study was 672 stock exchange companies in March 1400, of which five companies (statistical sample) were selected. The sampling method was selected by one-step cluster and then purposeful selection of a share from inside each cluster and the study period was from 2017 to 2021. The findings of the research in the upward and downward periods of the market have shown that the reinforcement learning approach in bullish and bearish markets is significantly superior to the buy and maintain approach and has provided better performance, and the results are in line with the performance of algorithms in the stock markets. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
69 - Evaluating the Power of Capital Deepening and the Effect of Elasticity of Substitution of Production Factors on the Employment Capacity in Iran's Manufacturing Industries.
Hamid Shirazi Mohammad Sharif Karimi Ali FalahatiThe purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of capital deepening and elasticity of substitution of production factors on the employment capacity of Iran's factories during the annual period of 1989 - 2019 .In this regard, by using the autoregressive distrib MoreThe purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of capital deepening and elasticity of substitution of production factors on the employment capacity of Iran's factories during the annual period of 1989 - 2019 .In this regard, by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method and time series data, the relationship and convergence between the macro-micro variables considered in this research and the employment capacity of Iran's manufacturing sector are investigated.The results indicate a significant immediate inverse (negative) and direct (positive) delayed effect of the capital deepening factor in both periods, as well as a significant direct delayed effect of the substitution elasticity of production factors in the short-term period and a significant inverse effect of delaying changes in the substitution elasticity of production factors in the long-term period on the employment capacity of the manufacturing industry sector of Iran's economy during the mentioned years. Also, according to the error correction model (ECM), the short-term dynamic model of the employment capacity of the said sector has convergence and tendency towards the long-term equilibrium model.Keywords: capital deepening; elasticity of substitution of factors; manufacturing industry; capacity of creating employment; ARDL ;Iran.JEL Classification: C22 ، D22، E22، J23، L60 Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
70 - The Role of Economic and Environmental Policies on Preventing Air Pollution
Marziyeh Sadat Vahabzadeh Moghadam Karim Eami Farzaneh Haju HassaniThe purpose of the article is to investigate the role of economic and environmental policies on preventing air pollution using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model during the period of 1990-2019. Based on the results of the model, the economic policy MoreThe purpose of the article is to investigate the role of economic and environmental policies on preventing air pollution using the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model during the period of 1990-2019. Based on the results of the model, the economic policy shock causes a sudden increase in economic growth and consumption and then their decrease; However, the economic policy shock increases air pollution. The shock of environmental policies, firstly, increases consumption and economic growth and then decreases them. Investment also decreases as a result of the shock of environmental policies. Based on the results of variance analysis, the role of economic policies for the country's economic situation and creating air pollution is greater than environmental policies. The role of environmental policies in reducing air pollution is less than the role of economic policies in increasing air pollution. It is suggested that when the government increases its expenditures, it imposes green taxes or carbon emission taxes at a lower rate than the increase in government expenditures so that the economic growth of the country will continue to be maintained along with the reduction of environmental pollution. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
71 - Investigating the relationship between oil price and Iran's stock market index with an emphasis on political uncertainty and the Corona pandemic: Using wavelet transform approach
nasim amin kharazian roya aleemran Rasoul baradaran hassanzadeh Amir Ali farhangThe purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between crude oil prices and the stock market index of Iran in the period from September 2009 to December 2020. For this purpose, by using wavelet coherence approach based on continuous wavelet transform, t MoreThe purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between crude oil prices and the stock market index of Iran in the period from September 2009 to December 2020. For this purpose, by using wavelet coherence approach based on continuous wavelet transform, the relationship between the yield pair series of Brent crude oil price-total stock index, WTI oil price-total stock index and OPEC oil price-total index of Tehran Stock Exchange has been investigated .The results of this research show that the dependence between the above pair of time series increases with the increase of uncertain conditions such as the increase of sanctions, the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA, and the corona pandemic in the medium and long term. Therefore, investors can adjust their investment portfolio in the long and medium term based on the conditions governing the country and their investment goals. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
72 - Modeling the Effects of Indirect Taxes on the Welfare of Income Deciles in Iran with the Computable General Equilibrium Application
Akbar Khodabakhshi Saeideh RoustaeiAfter oil revenues, taxes are the second and most important source of government expenditure in Iran's economy. On the other hand, considering the importance of social justice as one of the main goals of the government, the effects of imposing taxes on households are al MoreAfter oil revenues, taxes are the second and most important source of government expenditure in Iran's economy. On the other hand, considering the importance of social justice as one of the main goals of the government, the effects of imposing taxes on households are also very important. Therefore, this research, using a calculable general equilibrium model, seeks to investigate the welfare effects of imposing indirect taxes on different income deciles in Iran. For this purpose, two scenarios have been applied and the reactions of households with different income deciles to these scenarios have been investigated. In the first scenario, a uniform tax was imposed on all goods and services at a rate of five percent and in the second scenario, a tax on food at a zero rate, a tax on some luxury goods at a rate of 14 pecent and a tax on other goods at the same rate of 5 percent. EV index was also used to measure welfare. The results of the model show that the imposition of indirect taxes in the first scenario worsens the welfare of low-income households, while the second scenario improves the welfare of poor households and worsens the welfare of rich households. However, in the first scenario, the GDP was higher than in the second scenario. Therefore, it is recommended to choose a tax policy using an integrated tax system, we will see efficiency and economic justice. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
73 - Estimating the market power of the insurance industry in Iran using the Hall-Roger approach (during the period 1380-1399)
Jafar Yousefi Mehdi Moradi Yousof HajiAsghari Rostam GaradagiEstimating the amount of market power and determining the market structure of various industries is one of the most important topics in microeconomics,because the amount of production and price of various goods and services is affected by the degree of monopoly and mark MoreEstimating the amount of market power and determining the market structure of various industries is one of the most important topics in microeconomics,because the amount of production and price of various goods and services is affected by the degree of monopoly and market power of that industry.The purpose of this research is to estimate the degree of agreement and the levelof market power of the insurance industry using the Hall-Roger approach in the form of supply and demand equations with the help ofpanel data using the two-stage least squares method.For this purpose,the information of27public and private insurance companies In addition to the large share of their financial market in employment, the insurance industry is closely related to the characteristics of savings and the level of economic development of countries, and as one of the tools of risk management, it provides the expansion of social welfare on the one hand, and on the other hand It leads to the growth of investment and, as a result, more production and economic prosperity.As expected,the research results indicate the mutual dependence of insurance industry companiesSo that more than 85%of the investigated insurance companies have been able to enjoy a significant profit margin by creating a gap between the price and the final cost.Also the calculation results related to theLerner index based on theHall model show the information related to the coefficient of heterogeneity among insurance companies.Iran insurance has the highest Lerner index with a coefficient of0.565andAsia,Dana andPasargad insurances are in the next ranks with0.419,0.248and0.182respectively, Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
74 - state dependent values of tax multiplier in iran
negin heidarizadeh sayed.yahya abtahi zohreh tabatabaeinasab mohamadali dehghantaftiChanges in taxes under different conditions of output growth can have completely different macroeconomic effects, and in this regard, some empirical evidence emphasizes the non-linearity and state-dependent effects of fiscal policy. This paper examines the state-depende MoreChanges in taxes under different conditions of output growth can have completely different macroeconomic effects, and in this regard, some empirical evidence emphasizes the non-linearity and state-dependent effects of fiscal policy. This paper examines the state-dependent behavior of tax multiplier in Iran. Accordingly, a threshold model of specification presented by Romer and Romer (2010) is used to examine the coefficients related to the status of tax revenues to examine the effects of fiscal policies on output in the Iranian economy. The results of this study using quarterly data 1369: 02- 1398: 04 show that tax multiplier in low and medium regimes of economic growth is not significant. But the rising tax multiplier in a high-growth regime is quite significant. Also, increasing tax multiplier coefficients become smaller in periods of low economic growth, and these coefficients become larger in periods of high growth than in the entire sample period. Thus, tax policies in good times are quite effective tools, and the results emphasize the role of tax policies as a stabilizing tool by using the "right tool" at the "right time". Thus, although tax policies do not play an effective role during a recession, they can become a very effective tool for stabilizing and sustaining economic growth during a boom. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
75 - Comparison the Calibration of Call Option Pricing Models Based on Stochastic Volatility and Generalized Integral Transformation Technique
Forough Lotfi Reza Aghajan Nashtaei Mehdi Meshki MiavaghiThe purpose of this research is to compare the calibration of options pricing models based on Stochastic Volatility and the Generalized Integral Transformation Technique. For this purpose, the Generalized Integral Transformation Technique based on fixed Volatility and H MoreThe purpose of this research is to compare the calibration of options pricing models based on Stochastic Volatility and the Generalized Integral Transformation Technique. For this purpose, the Generalized Integral Transformation Technique based on fixed Volatility and Heston model based on Stochastic Volatility were used for pricing call options. In order to implement the proposed models, This research has used the call option data offered in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The results showed that in the state of In-the-Money and At-the-Money, the Heston-based calibration works better than the Generalized Integral Transformation Technique in all maturity scenarios. In the case of Out-of-the-Money, although the calibration of the Heston model performs poorly in the short-term scenario, but as the time to maturity increases, the calibration of the Heston model has responded better than the Integral Transformation Technique in the mid-term and long-term scenario. Therefore, it is suggested that in order to develop the educational infrastructure and culturalization of options, the Department of New Financial Instruments of Tehran Stock Exchange Company can consider the model presented in this manuscript to calculate the key parameters of option contracts in different scenarios, And in this way, a more accurate valuation of option contracts can be obtained. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
76 - The Impact of Current Budget Instability and Debt Accumulation on Iran's Economic Growth
mohadeseh moghadasi alireza Pourfaraj Ahmad Jafari Samimi mohammad Ali falahi This study investigate the Impact of Current Budget Instability and Debt Accumulation on Iran's economic growth using seasonal data during the period 1369:1 to 1397:4 (based on the latest seasonal data published in 1401). Structural Vector Auto More This study investigate the Impact of Current Budget Instability and Debt Accumulation on Iran's economic growth using seasonal data during the period 1369:1 to 1397:4 (based on the latest seasonal data published in 1401). Structural Vector Auto Regressive (SVAR) model has been used for this purpose. The results of the impulse response functions show that the instability of the current budget has led to the instability of other research variables along with increasing debt accumulation and decreasing economic growth. According to the results, the debt accumulation variable has a positive effect in the short term and a negative effect in the long term on private sector investment, as well as a significant negative effect on economic growth. The more the current size of the government is reformed, optimized and balanced, the current budget deficit and its financing will be reduced, the design of a favorable policy in this field will be able to eliminate many of the negative effects of the government sector on the national economy. Based on the results, it is suggested that sustainable incomes should be increased in order to improve the operating balance by maintaining tax justice, and the government's current spending policies should be adjusted by maintaining real purchasing power in a way that does not create negative welfare effects. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
77 - Evaluating the distance to default of banks: banks admitted to the stock exchange
Ghader Mohamad pour aghdam teymor mohammadi mehdid adibpourThe purpose of this research is to calculate the distance to default of 14 banks admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange and active in the banking industry of the Islamic Republic of Iran, based on the option pricing method of Merton, Black-Scholes, using the calculation MoreThe purpose of this research is to calculate the distance to default of 14 banks admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange and active in the banking industry of the Islamic Republic of Iran, based on the option pricing method of Merton, Black-Scholes, using the calculation of the market value of the banks' assets and their risk in the period The time is 1392-1400. For this purpose, the average market value of assets, liabilities and asset risk of banks and the distance to their default are calculated and compared.The index of distance to default of each of these banks in this period depends on the market value of assets, risk of assets, risk-free interest rate and debt. These variables depend on economic and non-economic and managerial factors. Bank Ansar, with the lowest average market value of assets, has the shortest distance to its default. On the other hand, Bank Mellat, which has the highest average market value of assets, has the longest distance to default. As a result, the most bank assets will have a longer distance to default. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
78 - Explanation of Financial Variables Effective in Predicting Turnaround: An Artificial Intelligence Approach
Kazem Harounkolai Ghodratolah BarzegarThe main aim of the research was to identify the financial variables that are effective in predicting turnaround of the listed companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange and to predict turnaround by using artificial intelligence method. For this purpose, the information of MoreThe main aim of the research was to identify the financial variables that are effective in predicting turnaround of the listed companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange and to predict turnaround by using artificial intelligence method. For this purpose, the information of 173 Distress Companies that came out of distress and turnaround was extracted during 1383 to 1399. Artificial Intelligence approach was used to analyze the data. In this approach, by using Lars and Relief Feature Selection Algorithms, 10 out of 54 financial variables which were effective in turnaround of companies were identified and then, the Learning Algorithm of Support Vector Machine and Decision Tree were used to evaluate the accuracy of the results of the identified variables in predicting turnaround. The results showed that Lars Feature Selection Method and Vector Machine Algorithm Support have better performance in predicting the time to exit from distress as compared to the Relief Feature Selection Method and Decision Tree Algorithm. Also, regardless of feature selection methods, support vector learning machine has a higher predictive power as compared to decision tree. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
79 - The Effects of Liquidity Creation on Systemic Risk: by Concentration on Banks Balance Sheet Structure
somaye sadeghiThis study investigates the determinants factors of systemic risk in Iranian banks during 2013-2022. The contribution is on banks liquidity creation and their balance sheet structure. For this purpose, the systemic risk of banks has been estimated and ranked by marginal MoreThis study investigates the determinants factors of systemic risk in Iranian banks during 2013-2022. The contribution is on banks liquidity creation and their balance sheet structure. For this purpose, the systemic risk of banks has been estimated and ranked by marginal expected shortfall (MES) index, using dynamic multi-garch models. The results by using Panel GMM method indicate that an increase in the balance sheet liquidity creation causes the vulnerability of banks to increase. Also, the liquidity creation on the side of assets (holding non-cash assets) significantly increases the systemic risk for banks, while which on the side of debts (holding of demand deposits) reduces the banks systemic risk and their fragility. In addition, the findings indicate that the bigger the size, the more non-traditional activities (non-interest income) and the higher the ratio of non-performance loans, the higher systemic risk in banks. while the higher capital adequacy in banks, the lower the systemic risk. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
80 - The Effect of financial and trade liberalization on stock market volatility in Selected Developing Countries: dynamic data panel approach
sirvan aghaie Mohammad Sokhanvar tahereh akhoondzadeh Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of financial and trade liberalization on stock market fluctuations in 25 selected developing countries between 2001-2019 using a multivariate mushroom model to calculate fluctuations and gener More Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of financial and trade liberalization on stock market fluctuations in 25 selected developing countries between 2001-2019 using a multivariate mushroom model to calculate fluctuations and generalized torque method. Based on the findings of the multivariate mushroom approach, there is a positive and significant relationship between financial and trade liberalization and the stock market fluctuations in this group of countries. Investigating the effect of financial and trade liberalization on stock market volatility using the generalized dynamic torque panel regression model shows a positive relationship between financial and trade liberalization and inflation with stock market volatility and also shows an inverse relationship between per capita income and financial liberalization and trade with it. Based on the results, it is suggested that economic policymakers, when implementing financial and trade liberalization policies, should take it into account that this liberalization is both an opportunity and a threat to domestic capital markets. Accordingly, imposition of financial and trade liberalization measures are recommended simultaneously and in a regulatory context. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
81 - The Effect of Habit Formation on Consumers Behavior in Iran
Mir Hosein Mousavi Elnaz khojasteh Farid DehghaniIn this paper, the effect of formed habits on consumer behavior was investigated by separating the three effects of generation, age and time (year) by generating a quasi-hybrid data set using the Dayton method. For this purpose, in the field of generations, 14 generatio MoreIn this paper, the effect of formed habits on consumer behavior was investigated by separating the three effects of generation, age and time (year) by generating a quasi-hybrid data set using the Dayton method. For this purpose, in the field of generations, 14 generations were studied from 1305 to 1995. Concerning time (year), this research investigates over 30 years from 1986 to 2020. The age of the subjects in this study ranged from 16 to 72 years. The results of the analysis of generation effects show that consumption expenditures are increasing with younger generations. The results of the study of the effect of time show the increase of households' consumption expenditure during the years 1986 to 2020 and the somewhat constant trend of the years 1995 to 2015. Results of the effects of age on consumption expenditure pattern confirmed the life cycle pattern. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
82 - Changes in Virtual Water Trade Balance in Iran: A Structural Decomposition Analysis
Nooraddin Sharify Hossein EsmaeiliThis paper investigates the situation of foreign trade to compensate for water shortage problems in Iran. Using input-output tables of 2011 and 2016 tables, the changes in virtual water trade balance in this period were investigated. Results indicate that in spite of th MoreThis paper investigates the situation of foreign trade to compensate for water shortage problems in Iran. Using input-output tables of 2011 and 2016 tables, the changes in virtual water trade balance in this period were investigated. Results indicate that in spite of the positive trade balance in these years, international trade caused virtual water to enter the country. However, both the value of the trade balance of products and the trade balance of virtual water in 2016 decreased compared to 2011. Overall, despite the increase in the import of virtual water due to the decrease in the total backward linkage of final products and the change in the share of exports and imports in the foreign trade balance; changes in the trade balance, the intensity of direct water consumption, the structure of production, and the structure of traded goods, respectively, contributed the most to the reduction of virtual water imports. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
83 - Identifying and Determining Factors Affecting the Resilience of the Iranian Banking System
Azadeh Afshari Sara Ghobadi Hosein Sharifi RenaniAccording to the emphasis of the Ball Committee, the survival rate of any economy is proportional to the resilience rate of its banks, and, when economic crises occur, the resilience of banks is too important. Then the purpose of this research is to investigate the indi MoreAccording to the emphasis of the Ball Committee, the survival rate of any economy is proportional to the resilience rate of its banks, and, when economic crises occur, the resilience of banks is too important. Then the purpose of this research is to investigate the indicators of the development of the banking sector that can affect the resilience of the Iranian banking system. Therefore, with the help of previous research, some factors were identified and the data were collected for 30 banks and credit institutions during the years 2000 to 2020 in the form of unbalanced panels. After that, the level of resilience was calculated with the help of the Volare index, and the type of relationships was evaluated with the help of the dynamic data panel method. The results showed that among the 18 indicators investigated as factors affecting the resilience of the Iranian banking system, only 9 factors are nonlinearly related to resilience. Resilience variables of the previous period, banking efficiency, the ratio of Interest-Free Income to total income, and the ratio of low-cost resources to total resources, have a direct relationship with resilience, and the indicators of bank size, shareholders' equity to debt, the ratio of loans to free resources, the ratio of the cost of doubtful loans to total expenses and the level of risk tolerance, had an indirect relationship. Also, private or public banks had no significant relationship with resilience. In conclusion, the resilience process of Iranian banks from 2000 to 2020 was drawn. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
84 - Dynamics between Macroeconomic Variables and the Core Inflation Gap with the MIDAS-VAR Approach
Amir Mansour Tehranchian MirHosssein Mousavi Zahramila Elmi Zahra KashanianThe wide scope of influence and effectiveness has turned inflation into one of the most important subjects of empirical studies as well as one of the main axes of policy making. In addition to the causes and effects of inflation, some economists have paid attention to t MoreThe wide scope of influence and effectiveness has turned inflation into one of the most important subjects of empirical studies as well as one of the main axes of policy making. In addition to the causes and effects of inflation, some economists have paid attention to the inflation index. Based on this, current inflation is not considered a suitable indicator for policy making and modeling due to high fluctuations. On the other hand, core inflation as a stable component of current inflation is a more suitable indicator for economic policies due to its stability. In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of macroeconomic variables and inflation core gap using SVAR method, n Iran's economy in the period of1998-2021. The momentum of oil price fluctuations and liquidity do not have a significant impact on the core inflation gap. The core inflation gap is most influenced by currency impulses and its own fluctuations, which shows the impact of inflation expectations on the formation of core inflation; According to the findings of the research, it is suggested to control exchange rate fluctuations and target core inflation in order to control inflationary expectations.The results show that the core inflation index has been more stable compared to the inflation rate and exchange rate fluctuations have the greatest impact on the core inflation gap. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
85 - Asymmetric Effects of Stock Market shocks on Foreign Exchange Market in Iran: Application of DDC and APARCH Models
Mansoreh Zeraati Masoud Soufi Majidpour Mamood Mahmoodzadeh Mhdi FathabadiAbstractIn this paper, the asymmetric effects of stock market shocks on the exchange rate in Iran were evaluated using the daily data from 20/03/2016 to 21/06/2023 using cointegration and APARCH methods. The evidence shows that both shocks (positive/negative) are repeat MoreAbstractIn this paper, the asymmetric effects of stock market shocks on the exchange rate in Iran were evaluated using the daily data from 20/03/2016 to 21/06/2023 using cointegration and APARCH methods. The evidence shows that both shocks (positive/negative) are repeatedly found in the Iranian stock market. Out of 2642 days, 1601 days of the market had negative returns and 1041 days had positive returns. In 511 days the market has fluctuated more than one standard deviation (big shocks). Estimates show that there is a strong long-term relationship between these two markets. The findings showed that the reaction of exchange rate to the positive and negative shocks of the stock market is asymmetric and has a long-term effect on the exchange rate. The behavior of the exchange rate towards negative and positive impulses is cyclical. The big negative shocks in the stock market gradually increase the return of exchange rate and eventually this effect does not disappear and puts the exchange rate at a higher level. But the effect of the big positive shocks in the stock market on the exchange rate is dampening. Negative shocks have a greater impact on conditional volatility compared to positive momentum. Also, the fluctuation of the stock market shows a very stable pattern. Keywords: shocks, stock market, exchange rate, asymmetric, APARCH.JEL Classification: G19, N25, F31, C58 Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
86 - Environment and Sustainable Economic Growth: a case study of Iran
The purpose of this study is to investigate the interactive effects of economic growth and environment by using the growth models and simulation equations method. The results of estimating the production function and environmental pollution (CO2 More The purpose of this study is to investigate the interactive effects of economic growth and environment by using the growth models and simulation equations method. The results of estimating the production function and environmental pollution (CO2 emissions), by using two-stage least squares (2SLS) during 1976 to 2006 represents that although environment quality has positive and significant impact on economic growth, but it is being worsened by the rapid growth of economy. Also, results indicate that the effect of environmental protection expenditure on environment quality is not significant. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
87 - Targeting the Price of Energy Carriers and Consumption Behavior of Urban Households in Iran
S.M. Ahmadi J. Pajooyan E. GholamiThe main purpose of this paper is to investigate the composition of consuming expenditures of urban households in Iran under various scenarios of the price of energy carriers. For this purpose, initially, goods and services consumed by urban households are divided into MoreThe main purpose of this paper is to investigate the composition of consuming expenditures of urban households in Iran under various scenarios of the price of energy carriers. For this purpose, initially, goods and services consumed by urban households are divided into 7 groups and the share of total household expenditures is estimated by applying an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) and the data of the years 2001-2010 for 10 cost deciles. Then, the average of the share of each of these groups is simulated for the years 2011 -2013 under two scenarios of 20 and 85 percentage of the price. The results indicate that using either of these two scenarios does not change the consumption composition of urban households and consumers preferences before relating the price to the needs and priorities. So, if the government plans to impose steep price scenarios, it should follow supporting supplements policies to compensate the decline of consumer welfare. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
88 - An Empirical Examination of Stability, Predictability and Volatility for Capital Markets in Persian Gulf Rim
yadollah Dadgar Behzad VamaziariThis paper examines the dynamic relationship of stock markets, stability, predictability, volatility, and persistence of shocks volatility of stock markets in Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arabic Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman. In this paper, Generalized Autoregressive MoreThis paper examines the dynamic relationship of stock markets, stability, predictability, volatility, and persistence of shocks volatility of stock markets in Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arabic Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman. In this paper, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model (GARCH) and Autoregressive Moving Average model (ARMA) are implemented by using monthly data during 1990-2010. The results indicate that stock market doesn’t have notable predictability in Iran and there is Cluster volatility for return of stock in most markets and almost, in none of these markets except Oman, explosive volatilities are observed. It is also indicated that the return for markets of Bahrain and Oman doesn’t have stability in significant level of 5 percent and for Iran it doesn’t have stability and durability in significant level of 1 percent. In addition, although the markets of these countries have high capacities for return of investment, but, in particular, the findings show a low correlation between these markets. Also, the results for the period in question explain that none of these markets has the ability of leadership among others. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
89 - Determination of Recreational Value of Vashi Strait and Savashi Waterfall in Firouzkooh
hamidreza Arbab Teimoor mohamadi hosein esfandiarValuation of environmental resources plays an important role in environmental economics in recent years. This research will assess the preservation value of Vashi Strait and Savashi waterfall in Firouzkooh and estimate individual willingness to pay (WTP) for prese MoreValuation of environmental resources plays an important role in environmental economics in recent years. This research will assess the preservation value of Vashi Strait and Savashi waterfall in Firouzkooh and estimate individual willingness to pay (WTP) for preserving the benefits obtained based on contingent valuation method (CVM) and double-bounded dichotomous choice (DDC). Vashi Strait and Savashi waterfall are one of the most important recreation areas in Tehran province and Firouzkooh city. To achieve the goal and estimate the willingness to pay, Logit and Probit models will be used based on maximum likelihood method. The data are collected via 275 questionnaires. The results represent that 78.5% of individuals have the willing to pay for preservation of Vashi Strait and Savashi waterfall. The average of WTP when visiting the site is about 12578.23 RLs per household yearly and also, the annual preservation value is calculated about 14339182200 RLs. Also, it is found that the variable of income has the most effectiveness on the acceptation of bid prices and provides enough justification for policy makers to maintain the quality of Vashi Strait and Savashi waterfall. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
90 - Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth of OPEC and OECD by focusing on Shocks Setting and Regime Changes
Nader Mehregan Mahmood Haghani Younes SalmaniThis paper investigate the asymmetric effect of oil price shocks on economic growth in OECD and OPEC countries with emphasis on the setting of shocks and regime changes during 1972-2011. The results indicate that the role of oil price shocks on the development price unc MoreThis paper investigate the asymmetric effect of oil price shocks on economic growth in OECD and OPEC countries with emphasis on the setting of shocks and regime changes during 1972-2011. The results indicate that the role of oil price shocks on the development price uncertainty is asymmetric in world markets and the shocks formed in this setting have asymmetric effects on the economy in both groups. But, the asymmetry in the OECD countries and the effects of OPEC, are greater. Of course, the impact of shocks increase when occurred after a stable period of oil price. Furthermore, a shock which influences positively a group ( OPEC or OECD), has negative impact on the other group. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
91 - Evaluating the Effect of Absolute and Relative Poverty on Happiness Inequality in Iran
younes nademi Seyed Parviz Jalili KamjooAbstract This research, based on Bentham's philosophy of pleasure and suffering, has assumed the pleasure as happiness and suffering as poverty and it is following the evaluation of the suffering caused by poverty on pleasure of happiness equality. Absolute and relative MoreAbstract This research, based on Bentham's philosophy of pleasure and suffering, has assumed the pleasure as happiness and suffering as poverty and it is following the evaluation of the suffering caused by poverty on pleasure of happiness equality. Absolute and relative poverty can lead to happiness inequality as moving the line of poverty to the higher deciles of income will lead to more happiness gap in the deciles. In this way, this research, by using Markov Switching method, has evaluated the effect of absolute poverty on happiness inequality during the period 1985-2012 and also has evaluated the effect of relative poverty on happiness inequality during the period 1979-2012 in Iran’s economy. The results from estimated research models showed that absolute and relative poverty have a significant positive impact on happiness inequality in Iran’s society. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
92 - Identifying the Bubble of the Housing in Iran by Panel Co-Integration Approach
mahmood khataei naser khiabani mohsen rajabiThe aim of this paper is to identify the bubble of housing in Iran. For this purpose, the base price of housing will be estimated at first and then the bubble calculated as the difference between the base and actual prices of housing. Considering the rationing in the mo MoreThe aim of this paper is to identify the bubble of housing in Iran. For this purpose, the base price of housing will be estimated at first and then the bubble calculated as the difference between the base and actual prices of housing. Considering the rationing in the mortgage market of Iran, the equation of housing real prices is used. In addition, to create an index of mortgage rationing, mortgage rationing model is used by some changes. The data are seasonal related to 17 metropolitan cities in Iran. The results of estimating the mortgage rationing model indicate an inverse relation between the mortgage demand and housing prices. The results obtained by the estimation of real housing prices equation point to the presence of bubble in the housing market. In fact, the burst of housing bubble in Iran is observed in housing market in 1996, 2002 and 2007. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
93 - Identification of Monetary Policy Items Influencing the Banking System
sorayya rafiee ghareshiran Karim Emami Farhad GhaffariThe purpose of this paper is to identify the effective factors of monetary policy on the banking system as one of the most important sectors of macroeconomics. Therefore, the effective factors of monetary policy on the banking system using the Dynamic Randomized Equilib MoreThe purpose of this paper is to identify the effective factors of monetary policy on the banking system as one of the most important sectors of macroeconomics. Therefore, the effective factors of monetary policy on the banking system using the Dynamic Randomized Equilibrium Model (DSGE) and the emergence of long-run macroeconomic ratios in the 1370s and 1380s And others' studies.The results showed that with a positive shock to the interest rate, due to lower demand for loans, the lending rate and, as a result, banks' profits decrease, and due to positive oil shocks, liquidity increases, lending rates and investment increases, and the household's willingness Reduces savings, resulting in lower bank profitability. Based on the results, while considering the importance of the role of financial factors in the transfer mechanism and the intensity of monetary policy effects by policy makers, it is suggested to adopt measures to adjust the effects of economic shocks. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
94 - To Analyze Entry Barrier and Price in the Industry of Custom-Purpose Applications
Kiumars Shahbazi jalil badpeymaAbstract The aim of this article is reducing the custom applied softwares cost. For this purpose, this research models the cost of related softwares by means of static bayesian game and assuming the computer companies awareness toward future demand. The results show if MoreAbstract The aim of this article is reducing the custom applied softwares cost. For this purpose, this research models the cost of related softwares by means of static bayesian game and assuming the computer companies awareness toward future demand. The results show if an applicant firm, for custom-purpose software, demand its application in two or more stages, price competition of computer companies to attain future profits cause price reduction in bidding stage and its increase after bidding stages. With increase in demand stages, not only the maximum entry forestalling price, but also entry barriers being increase. Based on results, the buyer firms are suggested to complete their software requirement before purchasing and announce the producers from future demands such that the price of the software reduces. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
95 - Analyzing the Feasibility of Islamic Finance Resistance in Financial Crises Situations
yadollah dadgar asadollah farzinvash nima mohamadnejadFinancial crisis, especially after 2007-2010, has been considered as one of main concerns of financial economists. They are worried about its continuation leads to a prolong recession in global economy. Thus, this paper is targeted to test the feasibility of the resista MoreFinancial crisis, especially after 2007-2010, has been considered as one of main concerns of financial economists. They are worried about its continuation leads to a prolong recession in global economy. Thus, this paper is targeted to test the feasibility of the resistance of Islamic finance and banking when confronting crisis in question. By using analytic- descriptive method, it is to evaluate whether Islamic finance simmers down the crisis. As a result, it is clear that theoretically speaking Islamic finance does have sufficient capability to prevent crisis. Its effectiveness, however, depends on actual performance of economic agents to pay attention to requirements of applying those teachings in actual life and not in mere proclamation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
96 - Pattern-finding of Decent Work for Provinces by Analyzing the Efficiency of Real Boundaries in 3rd and 4th Development Plan
Mohsen Nazari esmaeal shahtahmasebiAbstract In this research, main issue is to find the indicators and provinces that inefficient and even efficient provinces can use them as references to achieve the boundaries desired in decent works. So, an analytical-descriptive methodology is used at the presence o MoreAbstract In this research, main issue is to find the indicators and provinces that inefficient and even efficient provinces can use them as references to achieve the boundaries desired in decent works. So, an analytical-descriptive methodology is used at the presence of all provinces in 3rd and 4th development plan during 2000-2007. The results pattern-finding in provinces have represented that the provinces such as Hormozgan, Tehran and Gilan are the most important ones. Also, in terms of the indicators all over the country, the results have shown a high sensitivity in the provinces regarding to the indices of relief committee members and underemployment. The consequence of this sensitivity in decision making bodies of the country is to use these indices to achieve optimum efficiency. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
97 - Analysis of Nonlinear Behavior of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy in Uncertainty Conditions: Smooth Transition Regression Model (STR(
mohsen nosratian nasab Ahmad Jafari Samimi Amir Mansour TehranchianThe purpose of this study is to analyze the nonlinear behavior of monetary policy at the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran in uncertainty condition. To achieve this goal, the nonlinear behavior of the central bank's reaction function to the inflation uncertai MoreThe purpose of this study is to analyze the nonlinear behavior of monetary policy at the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran in uncertainty condition. To achieve this goal, the nonlinear behavior of the central bank's reaction function to the inflation uncertainty in the form of smooth Transition Regression model (STR) is estimated using seasonal data during the 1997:1-2015:3 periods. The results of this study indicate that the variable behavior and regime change in monetary policy of the central bank of Iran in the various conditions of inflation. By passing the uncertainty of inflation from a threshold level, the behavior of monetary policy has been changed so that the coefficients of the model are consistent with the Taylor rule. Based on the results of the present study, it is suggested to consider the economic uncertainty index in order to determine the optimal monetary policy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
98 - Structural Breakdown in the Inflation Persistence and Philips Curve in Iran
Instability of Phillips Curve can be considered as the most important application of Lucas Critique. Based on this critique, changes in the policymakers' behaviors cause changes in the macroeconomic parameters through affecting the expectations of the economic factors; MoreInstability of Phillips Curve can be considered as the most important application of Lucas Critique. Based on this critique, changes in the policymakers' behaviors cause changes in the macroeconomic parameters through affecting the expectations of the economic factors; therefore, while some economists believe in the existence of short-term correlation between inflation and unemployment due to the inflexibility both in the wages and prices, instability of Phillips Curve is considered as a major impediment to policy making, because of the existence of structural breakdown, resulting from endogenous shocks or changes in the policymaking regimes. The aim of the article is to investigate the structural stability of the inflation persistence and Phillips Curve parameters in the form of Bai and Perron Model during 1961-2008. The result show that in addition to the high fluctuations of the inflation rate in Iran, its persistence is also high. Meantime, Phillips Curve parameters have been changing in different periods and long-term Phillips Curve is not linear during the said period of time. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
99 - Identification and Prediction of Banking Crisis in Iran
Z. Zarei A. KomijaniAbstract This study uses the early warning system approach to predict banking crisis in Iran during 1990Q1– 2013Q4. To achieve the goal, Money Market Pressure index approach will be used by Markov Switching Model. The results indicate that, although, based on gov MoreAbstract This study uses the early warning system approach to predict banking crisis in Iran during 1990Q1– 2013Q4. To achieve the goal, Money Market Pressure index approach will be used by Markov Switching Model. The results indicate that, although, based on governmental supporting, the banking section in Iran has never encountered the phenomena such as bank run and bankruptcy, but it has also experienced banking crisis. Likewise, the assessment of probit model suggests that some indexes are leading banking crisis probability. These indicators include the variables of real exchange rate growth, the growth rate of credit endowed to private sector, real GDP, housing price, and real interest rate. Furthermore, the measures of expectation-prediction represent that the model developed has considerable potential to predict in sample banking crisis. Also, this model is unsuccessful in the prediction of the crisis in only 12 percent, but capable of predicting crisis in 77 percent of cases, where the crisis has occurred with probability of more than 40 percent. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
100 - Explanation of Intra-Industry Trade in Southwest Asian Countries in the Framework of Gravity Model of Trade
This paper has embarked to quantify and define effective factors of intra-industry trade in a certain group of southwest Asian countries during 2003 to 2007 by using of combined data model and in the framework of gravity model of trade which makes possible to estimate c MoreThis paper has embarked to quantify and define effective factors of intra-industry trade in a certain group of southwest Asian countries during 2003 to 2007 by using of combined data model and in the framework of gravity model of trade which makes possible to estimate commercial flows with its special elements.Result show that GDP of two partners, convergence effect with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Linder variables has a positive relation with intra-industry trade (iit) while FOEX rate, trade imbalance and geographical distance had an expected and negative relation with it. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
101 - SPECIFYING the EARLY WARNING MODEL for INFLATION by USING MARKOV SWITCHING APPROACH
Mohsen Mehrara seyed Mohamad Hosein FatemiAbstract This research is an application of the dependent models to the regime in order to determining major determinants of inflation in Iran on the base of seasonal data from 1990:3 to 2016:3, Accordingly, the two inflation regimes, high inflation regime (with an ave MoreAbstract This research is an application of the dependent models to the regime in order to determining major determinants of inflation in Iran on the base of seasonal data from 1990:3 to 2016:3, Accordingly, the two inflation regimes, high inflation regime (with an average annual rate of 28%) and low inflation regime (with an average annual rate of 12%), are identified and causes of regime transition have been surveyed. The results show the significant impact of liquidity growth and the output gap on inflation in both regimes. On the other hand, inflationary impact of liquidity growth in low inflation regime estimated less than the high inflation regime. The results of the Markov model indicate that liquidity growth and money market disequilibrium are the factors of transmission from low inflation to high inflation regime but these variables do not contain any significant implications for the transition from high inflation to low inflation regime. So according to the results, it can be concluded that the use of monetary expansionary policies in a low inflation regime can be more effective on the production than high inflation regime. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
102 - The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output in IRAN
The aim of this Paper is Evaluation of the Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output in IRAN during 1338-86. To this end, the Effects of Oil Income Shocks on Output Investigated by LSE Approach in the context of output function. Findings can be summarized as Follows. T MoreThe aim of this Paper is Evaluation of the Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output in IRAN during 1338-86. To this end, the Effects of Oil Income Shocks on Output Investigated by LSE Approach in the context of output function. Findings can be summarized as Follows. The Effects of Oil shocks on output are Asymmetric in both short and Long Run. In the short term positive oil shocks effects are greater than negative ones, but in the Long term negative shocks are grater. The effects of Positive oil shocks on output have decreased over the time but in the case of negative shocks this effects have been stronger. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
103 - Governance, National Innovation System and the Capacity for Attraction, Coherence and Technological Innovation (Theoretical Modeling)
Ali Dini Hojat Allah Hosieni Tahere Miremadi Ghasem Ramazanpoor NargesiThe main aim of this paper is to modleized a logical theoretical framework for the relations among governance, national innovation system and absorptive capacity, and technological catching-up. With this aim and using the analytical and deductive method or content based MoreThe main aim of this paper is to modleized a logical theoretical framework for the relations among governance, national innovation system and absorptive capacity, and technological catching-up. With this aim and using the analytical and deductive method or content based resoning method, relations among these factores are identified and with separating non- price factores from price variables, the model is conceptualized. The results show that 1. all of variables and factors are indigenous except the shock price policy; 2.There is an increasing circle between absorptive capacity and technological cathing-up (cumulative casualty); 3. In absence of this circle Neoclassical price polices fail in improving the technological learning and cathing-up process. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
104 - Labor Market Equilibrium in Profit-sharing Model Emphasizing on Islamic Approach
yadollah dadgar Iraj Totonchian mohammadreza armanmehrProfit-sharing of the workers is a fairly way for the workforce which plays a vital role in efficiency and sustainable economic growth. Studying this subject by Islamic approach can be a new step. The supply and demand balance in the Profit-Sharing model will be analyze MoreProfit-sharing of the workers is a fairly way for the workforce which plays a vital role in efficiency and sustainable economic growth. Studying this subject by Islamic approach can be a new step. The supply and demand balance in the Profit-Sharing model will be analyzed from the perspective of Islam. In this paper, the data will be collected in libraries and the documentation analyzed by using content analysis. In addition, depended on Islamic economical principles, geometrical and mathematical means are used to explain the matter more reasonably. To investigate the equilibrium of labor share in the economy, firstly, the labor market equilibrium rent is investigated. Then, the effect of Profit-sharing model of Islamic Economics will be studied on the balance of labor supply and demand. The stability of the economy equilibrium in profit-Sharing will be expressed based on Islamic teachings. Finally, some results of profit-Sharing Model are described. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
105 - Economic Welfare Analysis with an Emphasis on Aspects of Globalization
Ahmad Jafari Samimi Shahryar Zaroki Seyede Rogheieh Sadati AmiriAbstract The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of economic, social and political aspects of globalization on economic welfare in 50 selected countries from three income groups in the time between 2005 and 2015. For this purpose, economic welfare was MoreAbstract The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of economic, social and political aspects of globalization on economic welfare in 50 selected countries from three income groups in the time between 2005 and 2015. For this purpose, economic welfare was been calculated using the Index of Economic Well-Being (IEWB). The results in four frame with panel data method indicated that in high-income countries, economic and social aspect of globalization had significant positive effect on economic welfare while political globalization had no statistically significant effect. While, in the middle-income countries only economic aspect of globalization has significant positive effect on economic welfare. In low-income countries also, economic welfare is affect inversely from economic and political globalization and political globalization has not significant effect on welfare. In general, one can say that non-political aspects of globalization were been affected on economic welfare in the selected countries. Income per capita had a significant positive effect on economic welfare, but inflation had no significant effect on economic welfare. Based on the results an increase in the economic relations is recommend in high and middle-income countries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
106 - Evaluation of Trade Rent-Seeking Effects on the Iran’s Economy through Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model
samaneh moghaddasfar seyed komail tayebi alimorad sharifiThe purpose of this paper is to design a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibriummodel to examine the effect of trade rent-seeking on labor behavior in Iran's economy. The empirical results of the analysis of Impulse Response Functions indicate that, with the positive sho MoreThe purpose of this paper is to design a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibriummodel to examine the effect of trade rent-seeking on labor behavior in Iran's economy. The empirical results of the analysis of Impulse Response Functions indicate that, with the positive shock of the trade revenue, the trade rent-seeking rate has increased, and the labors has reduced its productive activity. In order to examine more precisely the welfare cost of rent-seeking, by Lucas's compensated variation pattern has been shown to decrease a 10% in rent-seeking rate it is increased households welfare benefit by 6%. Therefore, it is suggested that the economic policymaker with the import tariff setting based on the economic and society’s livelihood needs restricts the bargaining by the owners of the profit. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
107 - Effects of Good Governance on Economic Growth in the Selected Countries of OPEC and OECD
Abstract Good governance is considered as an opportunity to encourage local and foreign investment, increase economic growth, ensure economic security, and improve business conditions by using 6 measures of “Voice Right and Accountability MoreAbstract Good governance is considered as an opportunity to encourage local and foreign investment, increase economic growth, ensure economic security, and improve business conditions by using 6 measures of “Voice Right and Accountability”, “Political Stability and Non-Violent Conditions”, “Government Efficiency and Effectiveness”, “Law Standards”, “Rule-Oriented Governance”, and “Anti-Corruption Controls”, which are measured by World Bank for different countries. In this article, the relation between the quality of governance and the economic growth has been investigated, based on the theoretical principles and different effective channels in OPEC and OECD by using panel data during 1996-2007. Results show that there is a positive relation between the quality of governance and the economic growth in both groups and the effect of the quality of governance on the economic growth in OPEC is more than the OECD countries. Also, political stability and anti-corruption controls in OPEC and OECD countries bear the most effects respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
108 - The Impact of Economic Sanctions on the Amount of Dependence between Oil and Financial Market (Extremal Dependence Approach)
Tahereh Nowrouzifar shahram fattahi Kiomars sohailiAbstract This study tries to examine the contagion between oil and financial markets using a new method of co-volatility. In this survey, identification and measurement of contagion between financial markets, and contagion between oil and financial markets in Iran have MoreAbstract This study tries to examine the contagion between oil and financial markets using a new method of co-volatility. In this survey, identification and measurement of contagion between financial markets, and contagion between oil and financial markets in Iran have been investigated. The daily data for the period 2009-2015 is used which has been extracted from the Central Bank and the OPEC websites. Oil sanction has caused in a reduction in correlation between stock and oil markets fluctuations in short and long-term periods and between gold and oil markets in long-term period. In addition, oil sanction has caused to an increase in correlation among the fluctuations of oil and exchange, gold and exchange, gold and stock, exchange and stock markets during the two periods. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
109 - Detecting of Turning Points in Business Cycles of Iranian Economy Through Autoregressive Markov Switching Model
kambiz hojabr kiani Alireza moradiThis study was to investigate, turning points in Business Cycles in the economy of Iran using seasonal date during (1981:1-2008:2). To make it practical Autoregressive Markov Switching Model by Hamilton (1989) was used. Today this approach is used in many advanced count MoreThis study was to investigate, turning points in Business Cycles in the economy of Iran using seasonal date during (1981:1-2008:2). To make it practical Autoregressive Markov Switching Model by Hamilton (1989) was used. Today this approach is used in many advanced countries in order to identify and dating of cycle. Results showed that in that period in three junctures four records happened. The longest records are during [1991:2-1998:2], with the duration of 7 seasons. In addition to that results showed that in under discussion period every time a record happens in countries for about 1.74 seasons. While the appearance of every Boom in under discussion period in the economy of Iran continued 6.66 seasons. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
110 - Experimental Survey of the Effect of Moral Intelligence on Free Riding: A dynamic Game with Complete Information Approach
Omolbanin Jalali zahra nasrollahi majid hatefiThe purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of moral intelligence on free riding. To this end, a two-stage team game with three individuals was designed by providing an experimental environment and a sample of 186 people from the target community (students MoreThe purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of moral intelligence on free riding. To this end, a two-stage team game with three individuals was designed by providing an experimental environment and a sample of 186 people from the target community (students from Yazd and Ayatollah Haeri Meybod). The results showed that moral intelligence has a significant effect on free riding. In fact, increasing moral intelligence reduces free riding. Based on the results, it is suggested that the level of moral intelligence should be considered in attracting workforce in public and private jobs; in addition, it is intended to promote the moral intelligence of employee in order to increase participation in the work and, consequently, productivity. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
111 - The Structure of Production and Income Distribution in Iran
Esmaeil Abounoori mahboobeh farahatiAbstract The main goal of this research is to estimate the effect of production structure on income distribution in Iran. So, the researchers have used Gini coefficient, value added of five sectors concerning Agriculture, Industry and Mining, Building, Service, and Oil MoreAbstract The main goal of this research is to estimate the effect of production structure on income distribution in Iran. So, the researchers have used Gini coefficient, value added of five sectors concerning Agriculture, Industry and Mining, Building, Service, and Oil sectors shares of GDP during 1978-2012. The results indicate that the transition from Agriculture to Industry and Mining, Services and/or Oil increases the income inequality, while the transition from Oil to each of the other sectors reduces income inequality. Transferring the value added share of Industry and Mining to Oil or Services increases inequality. The transition from Services to Industry and Mining has equality effects on income distribution. Transferring the value added shares from Building sector to each of the Industry and Mining and Agriculture has no significant effects on inequality. Concerning the results, value added share transferring from Industry and Mining, Services and/or Oil to Agriculture reduces the inequality consistent with Kuznets Hypothesis representing that the inequality in Agriculture sector is less than other sectors. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
112 - Evaluation of Nominal Wage Rigidities' Sensitivity in Dynamic Stochasic General Equilibrium by Considering the Stock Price Bubbles
Kiomars sohaili shahram fatahi narges rahmanianiThe main goal of this study is to introduce a general stochastic dynamic equilibrium model with sensitivity analysis for the wage rigidity in Iran's economy using the seasonal data from 1995-2014. The results showed, capital market dynamics influence the real sector of MoreThe main goal of this study is to introduce a general stochastic dynamic equilibrium model with sensitivity analysis for the wage rigidity in Iran's economy using the seasonal data from 1995-2014. The results showed, capital market dynamics influence the real sector of Iranian economy. The monetary policy shock has a significant impact on macroeconomic variables and stock prices. The volatilities in stock prices helps to explain the Iranian business cycles. In the case of bubble in asset prices, credit constraint in firms was decreased and their opportunity cost decreases and causes a downward pressure on the marginal costs and finally inflation decreases. By assuming wage rigidity, possibility of wage adjustment with regard to monetary shock decreases and the reaction of labour and labour supply is been more strict. And changes in production is slower than when the wage perfect flexibility exist. Based on the results, using of the model with wage rigidity in order to better simulate the real world is suggested. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
113 - New Keynesian Phillips Curve and Analysis of Pricing Models
Hosein Amiri Teymoor Rahmani Meisam RafeiGradual adjustment of nominal wages and prices is the basis of New Keynesian models. The survey of microeconomic bases of slow adjustment is necessary for the welfare analysis. The reasons for incomplete adjustment of nominal wages and prices are the uncertainty, cost i MoreGradual adjustment of nominal wages and prices is the basis of New Keynesian models. The survey of microeconomic bases of slow adjustment is necessary for the welfare analysis. The reasons for incomplete adjustment of nominal wages and prices are the uncertainty, cost information, and re-negotiations. Note that the correct relationship between inflation and unemployment is important in the political and economic decision. So, in this article, we derive Phillips curve regarded to the incomplete adjustment of nominal wages and prices. In other words, Phillips curve based on the condition is New Keynesian Phillips curve which is related to incomplete adjustment of nominal wages and prices. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
114 - Modifying Adjusted Flag Location Quotient (AFLQ) (A case study o Tehran province)
Ali Azadinejad Abas Esari Arani Esfandiar Jahangard Alireza NaseriLocation quotient is a non-statistical method which brakes technical coefficient and uses some especial treatment to adjust them for regional studies. This method has evolved during the time and its latest version is known as augmented AFLQ based on specialty sector. Th MoreLocation quotient is a non-statistical method which brakes technical coefficient and uses some especial treatment to adjust them for regional studies. This method has evolved during the time and its latest version is known as augmented AFLQ based on specialty sector. This article attempts to challenge this method by using the data of Tehran Province (2007) as a case study underlining the crucial cracks in it. This crucial crack is inability in truly adjusting backward linkage of the demand of weak sectors which make regionally weak sectors wrongly being considered as the key sectors of the demand side. At last, a method will be presented much more accurate in converting national table to regional table in which this crucial crack has been resolved. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
115 - Income Distribution Modeling in Iran: Comparison of Dagum Model and Other Models Selected
sadegh bakhtiari sajad mahmoodoghliIn this paper, Weibull two-parameter and beta three-parameter models, Lognormal, gamma and Dagum are estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) annually and using the data of Iranian Household income and expense during 1982-2011 via VGAM in R software package subp MoreIn this paper, Weibull two-parameter and beta three-parameter models, Lognormal, gamma and Dagum are estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) annually and using the data of Iranian Household income and expense during 1982-2011 via VGAM in R software package subprogram calculator. The comparison of these models will be done by Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). According to AIC and the charts of the probability density functions, it is clear that Degum distribution function has a good fit. Estimated parameters of beta and delta are increasing and alpha parameter is declining during these years. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
116 - Determining an Optimal Tax on Housing Capital Compared with Non-housing Capital: Case Study of Iran
R. Shahnazi sh. Nasirabadi Abstract In oil exporting countries, the formation of Dutch disease is one of the major problems in economy. Dutch disease causes the outcome of non-tradable sectors (land and housing) to be increased compared with the tradable sector (industry and agriculture) More Abstract In oil exporting countries, the formation of Dutch disease is one of the major problems in economy. Dutch disease causes the outcome of non-tradable sectors (land and housing) to be increased compared with the tradable sector (industry and agriculture) and economic capitals transferred to less productive sectors. When facing with this problem, the solution is to reduce the profit of non- tradable sectors by the help of tax. In this paper, by using neoclassical growth model, determining an optimal tax on housing capital compared with non-housing capital will be studied. According to the results, optimal tax on capital depends on elasticity of substitution between consumption non-housing, housing and leisure times. Since Dutch disease causes the elasticity of substitution between housing capital and leisure time to be decreased, housing capital optimal tax should be more than the tax on non-housing capital. Based on the results obtained by simulating the model in Iran, the tax on businesses and labor will be decreased by the tax on housing profits. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
117 - Inflation Persistency in Iran with the Heterogeneous Approach of Economic Agents in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models
Mansour Khalili Araghi yazdan gudarzi farahaniThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the inflation persistency regarding the heterogeneous behavior of economic agents. For this, the data were used from 1991-2015 based on seasonal data and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. The innovation of this pa MoreThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the inflation persistency regarding the heterogeneous behavior of economic agents. For this, the data were used from 1991-2015 based on seasonal data and Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. The innovation of this paper is Calvo pricing assumption regarding the lag in inflation rate and indexing parameter in which inflation persistency conditions computing will be more relevant to Iran’s economy. The results showed that inflation expectations have a major role in inflation rate formation so that even if the inflation rate declines it will occur in a longer time due to inflation persistency. It, was cleared the prices have less reaction ability in relation to inflation persistency. It is suggested to the monetary authorities by considering the domestic inflation targeting rule in addition to inflation control, they stabilize the domestic production in the natural level in which it is required the monetary authorities to have credibility in views of economic agents. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
118 - Estimating an Institutional Structure in Economic Growth Using GMM Dynamic Panel Data Method
mohammad nadiri teymoor mohammadiOne of the most important questions in economics is the huge differences between various societies in welfare and development level. According to the new institutional economics, institutions have a fundamental role in development and economic performance. In this paper MoreOne of the most important questions in economics is the huge differences between various societies in welfare and development level. According to the new institutional economics, institutions have a fundamental role in development and economic performance. In this paper, we, empirically, are going to investigate the link between institutions and development worldwide during 1980-2009 using dynamic panel data method. Seven ICRG and good governance indexes are used as institutions indicators. Estimation results represent that institutions have a great influence on economic growth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
119 - Long-run Relationship between the Volatility of Effective Real Exchange Rate and Industrial Return Index in Tehran Stock Exchange Market (Multivariate GARCH Approach)
Esmaeil Aboonouri AmirMansour Tehranchian Mostafa HamzehThis paper, empirically, analyzes dynamic relationship between real effective exchange rate and industrial index in Tehran Stock Exchange market using VAR and Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH), by monthly time series data du MoreThis paper, empirically, analyzes dynamic relationship between real effective exchange rate and industrial index in Tehran Stock Exchange market using VAR and Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH), by monthly time series data during 2001-2011. The results represent that there is no long-term significant relationship between effective real exchange rate and industry index. Furthermore, the paper examines the cross-volatility effects between foreign exchange and stock markets. There is a bidirectional volatility spillovers effects between two markets. This indicates that previous innovations in stock market affects on the future volatility in foreign exchange market, and vice versa. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
120 - Analyzing the Monetary Policy in Iran Economy by Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model
This paper designed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for studying Iranian monetary policymaking, in which a policymaker can decide between inflation and exchange rate targeting to organize a monetary policy. Central bank’s tools to achieve the MoreThis paper designed a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for studying Iranian monetary policymaking, in which a policymaker can decide between inflation and exchange rate targeting to organize a monetary policy. Central bank’s tools to achieve these two goals are the control of domestic credits and intervention in exchange market. The results of our calibration represent that, in case of oil revenue shock, inflation targeting scenario makes less movement in consumption, non-oil production, employment, inflation and money. In case of technology shock, there is no special difference between two scenarios. But, inflation targeting makes less movement in non-oil production and inflation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
121 - Money Growth Uncertainty and Currency Substitution in IRAN: A Multivariate GARCH Approach
Sima Eskandari Sabzi Asad Allah Farzinvash Kambiz Hojabr Kiani Hamid ShahrestaniThe aim of this paper is surveying the effects of money growth uncertainty on currency substitution. For this, bivariate GARCH model and VAR-BEKK method was used on the base of data for 1979 to 2014. The results show that money growth uncertainty affects currency substi MoreThe aim of this paper is surveying the effects of money growth uncertainty on currency substitution. For this, bivariate GARCH model and VAR-BEKK method was used on the base of data for 1979 to 2014. The results show that money growth uncertainty affects currency substitution positively. Also, currency substitution, affected by its own past shock and the currency growth. On the other hand, there have been spillover of fluctuations from the currency growth to currency substitution and vice versa. Due to the existence of currency growth effective relationship on the currency substitution in Iran, it is necessary for controlling currency growth and preventing from currency irregular growth by policy makers. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
122 - Trade Integration, Specialization and Synchronization of Business cycles in ECO: Evidences of a Dynamic Correlation Index
Saeed Rasekhi Ahmad Jafari Samimi somayeh SadeghiNew international economic theories indicate that the increase of trade integrations is an important and effective element in Business cycles synchronization. This paper investigates the effects of trade integration and specialization on synchronization in ECO during 19 MoreNew international economic theories indicate that the increase of trade integrations is an important and effective element in Business cycles synchronization. This paper investigates the effects of trade integration and specialization on synchronization in ECO during 1993-2007, introducing a new and dynamic cross correlation index and using GMM methods. The results represent that increased trade (intra-industry trade and inter-industry trade) strengthen synchronization in ECO Countries. Also, more industrial similarities of a pair of countries induce higher bilateral synchronization. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
123 - The Analysis of Social Welfare and Welfare Convergence in The Iran,s Provinces for Evalution of Iran,s Regional Development
Elham Vafaei Parviz mohammadzadeh hosein Asgharpour Firooz FallahiAbstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate social welfare and the convergence of social welfare of Iran,s provinces. For the purpose we use Nahar and Inder convergence during 2000-2013. The results indicate that Kermanshah, Kohkiloyeh and Boyerahmad and Mazan MoreAbstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate social welfare and the convergence of social welfare of Iran,s provinces. For the purpose we use Nahar and Inder convergence during 2000-2013. The results indicate that Kermanshah, Kohkiloyeh and Boyerahmad and Mazandaran areconvergence towards the average of welfare of the provinces and Also, West Azarbaijan, East Azarbaijan, Ardabil, Bushehr, Razavi Khorasan, North Khorasan, Semnan, Sistan and Baluchestan, Qom, Golestan, Lorestan and Hormozgan diverge from the average of welfare. Also, most of the Iran,s provinces have a lower welfare than the community average. Therefore, policymakers performance in this field are not suitable for balanced development of regions welfare. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
124 - Evaluation of Survival and Risk Probability of Exchange Regimes in Economies having Exchange Anchor Monetary System and Inflation Targeting - Duration Model Approach
AliReza Kazerooni Hosein asgharpour Majid FeshariThe main objective of this paper is to investigate the survival and risk probability of pegged and floating exchange rate regimes in different countries: those having exchange rate anchor versus those having inflation targeting monetary regimes during 1999-2010. In orde MoreThe main objective of this paper is to investigate the survival and risk probability of pegged and floating exchange rate regimes in different countries: those having exchange rate anchor versus those having inflation targeting monetary regimes during 1999-2010. In order to achieve the goal, Duration Model Approach will be used to represent the survival and risk analysis of pegged and floating exchange rate regimes. The empirical findings of this paper suggest that, in two groups of countries, the floating exchange rate is a credible regime and it has a lower risk and then higher survival probability. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
125 - A Political-Economic Analysis of Firms’ Rent-Seeking: An Empirical Study of Lobby and Bribe in Different Countries
Abbas KhandanThe aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the lobby and bribeand behavior analysis and firms selection. So, to test this theory and determine the relation between lobbying and bribing, the data of more than twenty six thousand firms from 45 countries re MoreThe aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the lobby and bribeand behavior analysis and firms selection. So, to test this theory and determine the relation between lobbying and bribing, the data of more than twenty six thousand firms from 45 countries reported by The World Bank Enterprise Survey (2002-2005) are used. Because of the interaction between lobby and bribe, and, that lobby is a zero-one dummy variable, a combination of simultaneous equations estimation method and Probit regressions are used. As a main result, it is shown that, although lobby substitutes the bribery, but this relationship is not symmetric. 3 groups of variables including countrywide characteristics, industrial and firm-level factors affect the choice between lobbying and bribing. Lobby decreases bribery, but the substitution is not complete so that half of the lobbying firms still use bribery as a mean to cover the risk of lobbying failure. Higher lobbying winning chance or firm’s affordability to accept the risk of failure through for example external financing decreases the need to bribe to insure the risk of lobbying failure and, thus, make the substitution stronger. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
126 - Study of the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism and its Timing in Iran
In this paper, the monetary policy transmission process within the channels of the credit, exchang rate, assets prices and interest rate is studied for the Iranian economy using Vector Autoregressive Approach during 1988Q1 to 2007Q4. The results represent that the effec MoreIn this paper, the monetary policy transmission process within the channels of the credit, exchang rate, assets prices and interest rate is studied for the Iranian economy using Vector Autoregressive Approach during 1988Q1 to 2007Q4. The results represent that the effect of changes in money supply (monetary base) is not statistically significant on output .but; the inflation impact is instantaneous and noticeable. The variance decomposition results are, also, consistent with this finding. In particular, a monetary innovation explains 5.7 and 72 percent of output and inflation innovations, respectively. Likewise, the channels play no role in transmitting the effect of monetary policy to output. But, in respect to inflation, they have a significant effect. Specifically, the contribution of asset, interest rate, exchange rate and credit channels in nine quarter horizons amount to 35.7, 30.6, 19, and 3.2 percent, respectively. They, all together, explain 88.5 percent of the general price level of changes. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
127 - Effects of Economic Integration on the Balance of Payments in the Selected Developing Countries
In this article, the effects of economic integration on the balance of payments in the selected developing countries have been examined through generalized Gravity Model by applying consolidated data during 1971-2006. More In this article, the effects of economic integration on the balance of payments in the selected developing countries have been examined through generalized Gravity Model by applying consolidated data during 1971-2006. Results indicate that trade balance is positively oriented in the long term period, leading to the improvement of BOP in the long-run, after applying economic integration plan. Furthermore, more trade liberalization in the member countries of the integration plan would lead to the increase of mutual trade (both export and import) among the member countries; therefore, both trade liberalization policy and economic integration plan would contribute to the economic development strategy, based on the export development. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
128 - Parametric Investigation of Lerner Index in the Bank Deposits and Loan Market Using the Translog Cost Function
mahdi moradi Farhad Khodadad Kashi Jahangir Biabani Hadi GhafariThe aim of this paper is to investigate the monopolistic power of Iran’s banking industry by parametric approach. For this purpose, the Lerner index was calculated in the bank deposits and loan markets using the Translog stochastic frontier cost function and using MoreThe aim of this paper is to investigate the monopolistic power of Iran’s banking industry by parametric approach. For this purpose, the Lerner index was calculated in the bank deposits and loan markets using the Translog stochastic frontier cost function and using banking data including balance sheet and profit and loss statement of 33 banks during 2001-2014. The results showed that monopolistic power of banking industry in the loan market has decreased over time and competitive conditions somewhat have been improved, so that the Lerner index for loan market in 1380 has been decreased from 0.77 to 0.54 in 1393. However, the gap between price and marginal cost is rather high level. Also, the Lerner index of deposit market has been fluctuated between 0.5 and 0.33. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
129 - Applying Semi-parametric and Wavelets Methods to Study Persistent Rate of Inflation in Iran
Ahma Jafari Samimi Roozbeh BaloonejadIn this study, the existence of inflation persistent rate is examined in Iran. For this purpose, the degree of fractional integration is estimated by using GPH, Robinson adjustment, Reisen, Whittle, wavelets methods and consumer price index data of Central Bank during 1 MoreIn this study, the existence of inflation persistent rate is examined in Iran. For this purpose, the degree of fractional integration is estimated by using GPH, Robinson adjustment, Reisen, Whittle, wavelets methods and consumer price index data of Central Bank during 1972-2010. The results indicate a persistent rate of inflation in Iran. The stationary and persistence of inflation rate indicates that, by a shock in inflation rate, its effects remains for a long time. This may be considered by economic decision-makers to select appropriate policies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
130 - Effects of Industrial Localization Economies and Urbanization on Economic Growth: The Evidences of Iranian Markets
m. sameti M. Fathabadi H. RanjbarIn the field of regional economics, the effects of industrial agglomeration are defined as the product efficiency derived by industrial interdependency and the firms are usually considered to be external economies in decision-making process. The aim of this paper is to MoreIn the field of regional economics, the effects of industrial agglomeration are defined as the product efficiency derived by industrial interdependency and the firms are usually considered to be external economies in decision-making process. The aim of this paper is to provide a model for new economic geography based on endogenous agglomeration theory of Krugman (1991) in Iranian markets. Hence, by estimating Solow generalized function, the effect of urbanization and industrial agglomeration is examined during 2000–2010 in Iran provinces. The results indicate that core-periphery theory is not correct in the provinces of Iran; so that spillover effects of outside market are significant and positive, while home market effect statically is not significant. So, developing the road transportation infrastructures and strengthening the markets linkages play a determinant role in the appearance of spillover effect of outside market and then on the growth of the provinces. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
131 - Impact of Environmental Policies in Value-Added of Transportation Sector
mirhosein mosavi ghader safarzadehTransportation is one of the most polluting divisions of economical interest, though it has various important negative effects on the national economy. Thus, environmental considerations in this field should be accounted for by high priority. In this work, by using diff MoreTransportation is one of the most polluting divisions of economical interest, though it has various important negative effects on the national economy. Thus, environmental considerations in this field should be accounted for by high priority. In this work, by using different pollution parameters in transportation, consumption and production divisions, the effects of shadow price of environmental pollutants resulting from combustion of fuels on value added growth will be investigated through structural time series model (STSM). Since, shadow price of the environmental pollutant must be extracted initially; the instantaneous frontier pattern is used. Hence, after the evaluation of shadow prices in the transportation field, total prices for CO2, NOx and SO2 are calculated by assuming the individual diffusion contributions from those of the total contributions. Finally, the effects of these totally calculated results on value added growth are investigated by considering other defining variables. The resulting coefficient of shadow price growth by the value of -0.25 indicates inverse relation for this price between the transportation and value added growth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
132 - Identification of Stagflation Causes in Iran: A Threshold Error Correction Method
nooshin khani gharieh gapi bahram sahabi firoozeh azizi majid sabagh kermaniStagflation is an economic situation in which both inflation and business activities stagnant will happen at the same time with the increase of unemployment rate in the country. In this study, the causes of stagflation will be identified in the country by Error Correcti MoreStagflation is an economic situation in which both inflation and business activities stagnant will happen at the same time with the increase of unemployment rate in the country. In this study, the causes of stagflation will be identified in the country by Error Correction Method (ECM) and the data of the years 1973-2011. Then, by using Threshold Autoregressive Error Correction Method (TAR-ECM), the researchers try to clear that if the growth of the elements identified will equally affect the stagflation or after a threshold level, the effect can be different. According to the results of linear relationship, indices of payment balances, budget deficit, oil revenues and liquidity are statistically significant and considered as the cause of stagflation in Iran. Also, the results of all nonlinear models estimated in this paper represent when the growth of stagflation causes passed the threshold point, their effect on stagflation will be different. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
133 - The Effect of Institutional Quality on Economic Corruption
Abolfazl Shahabadi Hamed SadeghiThis paper investigate the relation between institutional quality and the economic corruption by Linear Structural Relationships (LISREL) model among 35 countries like Iran by using the data of the years 2000, 2005, 2006. Results indicate that there is an indirect MoreThis paper investigate the relation between institutional quality and the economic corruption by Linear Structural Relationships (LISREL) model among 35 countries like Iran by using the data of the years 2000, 2005, 2006. Results indicate that there is an indirect relation between the economic institutions quality such as government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and economic corruption with coefficient (-0.26) .This finding has been illustrated that a high institutional quality lead to less economic corruption. Corruption spread has been affected on real GDP with coefficient (-1.13). Moreoever, indirect effect of institutional quality on GDP is 0.27. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
134 - Calculation of Backward and Forward linkages of Mineral of Iran's Mines (Application of Input-Output Approach)
mirhosein mousavi farid dehghani azadeh roshanravanAbstract The purpose of this study is to rank the minerals of mines in operation in Iran by examining the backward and forward linkages between sections. For this purpose, the input-output table updated in2011 by the Islamic Parliament Research Center of The Islamic Re MoreAbstract The purpose of this study is to rank the minerals of mines in operation in Iran by examining the backward and forward linkages between sections. For this purpose, the input-output table updated in2011 by the Islamic Parliament Research Center of The Islamic Republic Of Iran has been used. By calculating the multiplier coefficient of production, using Leontief's demand-side method, all mining sections had a multiplier coefficient of production more than one. Also, by calculating the backward linkage using a supply-side model of Gosh, the multiplier coefficient of supply in all mineral sectors is high. By examining the power index through Rasmussen's demand-side method, coal and lignite, coal and stone, sand and gravel sectors with a power index greater than one, after the agricultural sector, the building And the industry, because of the greater link that they make with other sectors in terms of purchasing intermediary inputs, had more employment than the total average of activity. In this respect, other parts of the mine had no place among the first parts. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
135 - Analysis and Estimation of Housing Prices in Tabriz
Parviz Mohammadzadeh Masood Mansouri Babak koohi leilanThe main objective of this study is to identify the factors affecting the prices of housing by the use of Spatial Econometrics approach in Tabriz. To achieve the end, four physical, environmental, availability and spatial factors will be considered. Indeed, by determini MoreThe main objective of this study is to identify the factors affecting the prices of housing by the use of Spatial Econometrics approach in Tabriz. To achieve the end, four physical, environmental, availability and spatial factors will be considered. Indeed, by determining the factors affecting the function of housing price based on a hedonic approach, spatial econometric can explain them in a spatial dependence frame. By using the cross-sectional data collected in 2010 from 757 families living in Tabriz prepared by Statistical Center of Iran, the software such as Geoda and GIS and Tabriz statistical maps, a model will be estimated for the effectiveness of home prices. The results indicate that there is a spatial dependence in the price of housing units in eight districts of the Tabriz city. The heating and cooling systems, exterior, structure type and the availability of street and security are the most effective elements in housing price. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
136 - Identifying the position of Petrochemical Industry in Iran Economy by Using Eigenvector
Ali asghar esfandiari Azam MoradiThis article tries to identify the forward and backward linkages of Petrochemical sector using conventional and improved Chenry-Vatanabe, Rasmussen and Eigenvector methods. It relies on Eigenvector method noted much. This method, based on Perron-Frobenius theory, MoreThis article tries to identify the forward and backward linkages of Petrochemical sector using conventional and improved Chenry-Vatanabe, Rasmussen and Eigenvector methods. It relies on Eigenvector method noted much. This method, based on Perron-Frobenius theory, considers the continuity of durability in one sector to the others due to the quantity of the final demand and added value. So, Input-Output table of the year 2001 aggregated to 27 sectors are used. The results represent that petrochemical sector in all the methods used has strong Forward linkage (FL>1) and weak Backward linkage (BL<1). Thus, this is not a key sector. Strong Forward linkage shows a high level of intermediate demand belonging to all sectors. Hence, we can say that petrochemical sector is a superior industry for most economic sectors and its sufficiency is higher than other economic sectors. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
137 - The Impact of Islamic Banking and Non-banking Financial Institutions on Economic Growth in Iran – A Generalized Method of Moments (GMM)
saeed farahanifard majid feshari yavar khanzadehAbstract The banks and non-banking financial institutions have facilitated trading and commercial activities and increased the markets, and economic growth and prosperity by organizing and directing the payments. In this study, firstly, the researchers have explained t MoreAbstract The banks and non-banking financial institutions have facilitated trading and commercial activities and increased the markets, and economic growth and prosperity by organizing and directing the payments. In this study, firstly, the researchers have explained the channels by which banking and non-banking financial institutions affect economic growth, and secondly, paid attention to the ways of affecting the explanatory variables on economic growth in Iran. At the end, by using the traditional model of King and Levine Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), the effects of non-banking financial institutions supervised by Central Bank of IRI and Commercial and specialized banks are studied during 1999:Q1 - 2013:Q4. The empirical results of this study have indicated that all explanatory variables used have significantly positive effect on economic growth. Also, the experimental results have shown that banking financial institutions have a greater and significant effect on economic growth compared to non-banking financial institutions. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
138 - Bank and Macroeconomic Variables Efficiency in Risk Management
Mohsen Mehrara Mehdi Mehran farThis study investigates the factors affecting risk management efficiency of banking industry during 2001-2009, taking 15 public and private operating banks in Iran. For this purpose, capital adequacy ratio is considered as risk management efficiency indicator and other MoreThis study investigates the factors affecting risk management efficiency of banking industry during 2001-2009, taking 15 public and private operating banks in Iran. For this purpose, capital adequacy ratio is considered as risk management efficiency indicator and other determinants are divided into bank specific indicators and macroeconomic variables. Empirical results represent a positive relationship between the liquidity, profitability, operating efficiency, economic growth and capital adequacy ratio while credit risk and inflation rates have a negative effect on capital adequacy ratio as an indicator of risk management efficiency in banks. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
139 - Comparative Study of Natural Resource Abundance on Economic Growth in Iran and Norway
Abolfazl Shah abadi Hamed SadeghiDuring two past decades, many studies have been done by the researchers about the relationship between natural resources and economic growth. Based on the importance of natural resources in economic growth and by considering both its positive and negative effects on the MoreDuring two past decades, many studies have been done by the researchers about the relationship between natural resources and economic growth. Based on the importance of natural resources in economic growth and by considering both its positive and negative effects on the economy, this study tries to review the effects of natural resource abundance on economic growth in Iran and Norway during 1970-2008. The results represent that, in the short-term and long-term, natural resource by itself isn’t an obstacle for economic growth in Iran. Furthermore, economic freedom and human capital in these two countries have significant and meaningful positive effect on economic growth both short and long term. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
140 - Sectoral tariffs and geographic distribution of agricultural downstream industries:Evidence of Iran’provinces
mansour ardeshiri Reza Moghaddasi Saeed Yazdani amir mohamadinejadIn this paper, within the framework of the theory of "new economic geography”(NEG), we evaluated the effect of sectoral tariffs on the geographic distribution of agricultural downstream industries in the provinces of Iran.Midelfart-Knarviket et al.(200 MoreIn this paper, within the framework of the theory of "new economic geography”(NEG), we evaluated the effect of sectoral tariffs on the geographic distribution of agricultural downstream industries in the provinces of Iran.Midelfart-Knarviket et al.(2000) approach was usedto test the research hypothesis.In this approach, the perspective of industrial activity location is determined by the multifactor interactions between regional and industrial characteristics.Accordingly, the econometric model by fixed effects method has been estimated using the industrial and regional data of 33 agricultural downstream industries 4-digit code of ISIC classification during the period of 2004-2014 in 28 provinces of Iran.The results show that sectoral tariffs have a significant effect on the industrial location pattern in agricultral downstream industries of Iran; This means that the implementation of supportive policies has led to an increase in the agglomeration in some provinces and the formation of a core-periphery pattern in Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
141 - The Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Output and the Level of Price in Iran: A SVAR Approach
Soheila Parvin Javid Bahrami sahar Vahidi The aim of this article is the study of the effects of fiscal shocks on GDP and the level of price in Iran, using a quarterly dataset of variables during 1988:1-2010:4. This analysis will take place by using a Structural Vector Auto regression Approach.The results More The aim of this article is the study of the effects of fiscal shocks on GDP and the level of price in Iran, using a quarterly dataset of variables during 1988:1-2010:4. This analysis will take place by using a Structural Vector Auto regression Approach.The results of impulse response functions show different components of government expenditure and tax revenues as having different impacts on economic variables in the short term and long term. A positive shock in total government expenditure and government current expenditure is found to have positive temporary effect on output and also increases the level of prices in the short-term, while the government investment expenditure has more stable positive effect on GDP and no significant effect on prices. Total tax revenue expansionary shocks do not affect the GDP but impose a negative effect on the level of prices in the short-term. Investigation of tax revenue components shows that direct tax shocks contribute to the decline in output and the level of price in the short-term and Indirect taxes has no significant effect on these variables. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
142 - Income Distribution Modeling in Iran: Comparison of Dagum Model and Other Models Selected
esfandiar jahangard saeedeh sarabadani tafreshiIn this paper, Weibull two-parameter and beta three-parameter models, Lognormal, gamma and Dagum are estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) annually and using the data of Iranian Household income and expense during 1982-2011 via VGAM in R software package subp MoreIn this paper, Weibull two-parameter and beta three-parameter models, Lognormal, gamma and Dagum are estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) annually and using the data of Iranian Household income and expense during 1982-2011 via VGAM in R software package subprogram calculator. The comparison of these models will be done by Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). According to AIC and the charts of the probability density functions, it is clear that Degum distribution function has a good fit. Estimated parameters of beta and delta are increasing and alpha parameter is declining during these years. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
143 - The Effect of Financial Liberalization on the Stock Market in Iran
mirhosein mousavi masoumeh nematpourThe purpose of financial markets liberalization followed by most developing countries in recent decades is to improve the efficiency of financial markets and financial resources. This paper examines the relationship between share prices index and financial liberalizatio MoreThe purpose of financial markets liberalization followed by most developing countries in recent decades is to improve the efficiency of financial markets and financial resources. This paper examines the relationship between share prices index and financial liberalization index in Iran during 1373-1387 using quarterly time series data. It uses more comprehensive and recent technique, Vector Autoregressive and Co-integration approach to determine the short run and long run linkages between share prices Index and financial liberalization. The findings indicate that financial liberalization index has a positive impact on share prices Index in long run, but no impact in short run. Financial liberalization and reforms started in early 1990s, as part of economic reforms, has a very strong direct effect on the stock market. It means that stock market is too much sensitive and volatile to financial liberalization in emerging economies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
144 - Effect of Inflation on Solvency of Insurance Companies in Iran
Hossein Raghfar esmael safarzadeh Maryam QafourboroujerdiThe target of this article is to investigate the effect of inflation on the solvency of insurance companies in Iran. In this regard, panel data regression models was used to specify the model study from 1391 to 1394. The results show that inflation, current ratio and eq MoreThe target of this article is to investigate the effect of inflation on the solvency of insurance companies in Iran. In this regard, panel data regression models was used to specify the model study from 1391 to 1394. The results show that inflation, current ratio and equity ratio have positive and significant effect on solvency, while loss coefficient and reserves ratio have negative effect on solvency. According to the results, it is suggested that insurance companies change their activities from leveraged companies to capital based ones; consider reserves in another part of balance sheet except for the liabilities part; describe a range as the optimal range of current ratio and define some groups of premium related to the average damages. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
145 - The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices by Emphasizing the Role of Monetary Policy
By increasing the importance of financial assets market, it is necessary to perform constant studies about these markets. An important component of any financial market is stock exchange market. Since, there is a significant relationship between the stock market develop MoreBy increasing the importance of financial assets market, it is necessary to perform constant studies about these markets. An important component of any financial market is stock exchange market. Since, there is a significant relationship between the stock market developments and the economic stagnation and downturn, mutual macroeconomic policy, especially monetary policy affects the stock market too. So, this study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock prices focusing on the role of monetary policy by using SVEC model .The results represent that stock price in Iran mostly affect the monetary policy and it is important in explaining stock price changes. This is because, it depends on the Bank's financial sector, lack of awareness, lack of capital market securities and failure of interest rate channel in Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
146 - Education Demand and the Share of Educational in Income Inequality
Ali Falahati Shahram Fatahi Younes Goli Somayeh Goli Abstract This paper, by using household micro-level data over 2010-2014 and utilizing the generalized Logit model and Oaxaca-blinder and Machado-Mata decomposition, investigates the factor affecting educational demands and determining the share of education in More Abstract This paper, by using household micro-level data over 2010-2014 and utilizing the generalized Logit model and Oaxaca-blinder and Machado-Mata decomposition, investigates the factor affecting educational demands and determining the share of education in income inequality. The results show that increase the parents’ years of educational and decrease in number of children lead to increase the educational demand. The results of decomposition models, also, indicate the share of education in income inequality at the bottom deciles of income is 0.6 and at the top deciles is 2.5 percent. Averagely, the share of education in income inequality in 2010 was equal to 1.46 and in 2014 to 3.26 percent. To increase the efficiency of education in the country, the policies such as creation increase the relationship between university and industry, quality of education and increase investment in sectors whit higher forward and backward linkage is advised. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
147 - Investigating Unemployment Invariability Hypothesis in Iran's Provinces
Hasan DaliriThis paper pursues the relation of economic participation effects on unemployment rate in Iran՚ provinces and unemployment invariability hypothesis test. For this, the data 2005-Q2- 2015-Q4 and single-equation different methods, equation system and panel dat MoreThis paper pursues the relation of economic participation effects on unemployment rate in Iran՚ provinces and unemployment invariability hypothesis test. For this, the data 2005-Q2- 2015-Q4 and single-equation different methods, equation system and panel data was used. The results show that in most provinces and also, in the country’ average, the mentioned hypothesis is confirmed due to short run shocks in economic participation; so, in order to decreasing long run unemployment rate, it needs to some changes in macroeconomic policy making and in labor demand too. It should be noted that labor supply changes have only short run effects in unemployment control. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
148 - Game Theory Approach to Modeling and Analyzing Inheritance Allocation of a Passed-away Couple
majid sheikhmohammadi mostafa abbasiThe main aim of this study is to model and analyze the challenge of inheritance allocation remained by a passed-away couple based on the inheritors strategies and objectives by using Game Theory approach. So, by the help of Graph model to analyze the challenges between MoreThe main aim of this study is to model and analyze the challenge of inheritance allocation remained by a passed-away couple based on the inheritors strategies and objectives by using Game Theory approach. So, by the help of Graph model to analyze the challenges between the inheritors of a passed-away couple based on the laws and regulations in Islamic Republic o Iran. This model contains two kinds of players selected through 64 abstract constructions of the strategies by applying some limitations and analyzed 8 possible cases and finally, 2 cases predicted as more likely. The results represent that this competition has two equilibriums. That is, if the players stand in thie situations, they have no desire to exit. By the coalition of the players, the results will be more appropriate to get more. The findings of the modeling is completely consistent with real results of the challenges. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
149 - Economic Growth in Countries Depended on Natural Resource (By emphasizing on Oil Resources)
kazem yavari mahdieh rezagholizadeh majid aghaeeThis paper, by focusing on oil resources, tries to investigate the relationship between natural resources abundance and economic growth in 8 OPEC selected countries during 1970- 2008. We used Dynamic Panel Data and Static Panel Data Model for this purpose and estimated MoreThis paper, by focusing on oil resources, tries to investigate the relationship between natural resources abundance and economic growth in 8 OPEC selected countries during 1970- 2008. We used Dynamic Panel Data and Static Panel Data Model for this purpose and estimated the relations by Generalized Method of Moments[1], Fixed Effects and Random Effects Estimator. The results represented that there is a negative relationship between oil resources abundance and economic growth in above mentioned countries. [1]. GMM * Associate Professor in Economics at University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding Author), Email: kyavari@gmail.com **PhD student in Economics at University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran, Iran, Email: mahdieh_rezagholizadeh@yahoo.com ***PhD Student in Economics at University of Tarbiat Modares and Researcher at Statistical Research and Training Centre, Tehran, Iran, Email: majid_aghaei3@yahoo.com Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
150 - The Effect of Social Capital on Participation of Individuals in Teamwork: Experimental Approach Based on Sequential and Simultaneous Games
Omolbanin Jalali Zahra Nasrollahi Majid HatefiRecently, organizations have tended to focus on team activities, and cognitive factors such as social capital can affect the performance of individuals in this framework. In this regard, the present study examined the effect of social capital on individual decisions wit MoreRecently, organizations have tended to focus on team activities, and cognitive factors such as social capital can affect the performance of individuals in this framework. In this regard, the present study examined the effect of social capital on individual decisions within the framework of teamwork. In order to achieve this goal, we came to the experimental environment and performed an examination of the effects by performing sequential and simultaneous games that were complete, static and dynamic, and perfect and imperfect. 182 students were selected from the population of students from universities of Yazd, and 2184 observations were collected. The results of the study showed that the increase in social capital of a team's players leads to increased team production, team revenue and team profits. The results also showed that people with high level of social capital are not affected by rewards, while reward changes lead to a change in the behavior of individuals with a moderate or lower social capital level. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
151 - Impact of Oil Different Products Consumption on Economic Growth in Iran Provinces
kumars Shahbazi hosein Asgharpur Karim moharramzadehThe main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between different oil products consumption and economic growth in Iran provinces. The basic question is whether the reduction of different oil products consumption caused by subsidy reform plan decelera MoreThe main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between different oil products consumption and economic growth in Iran provinces. The basic question is whether the reduction of different oil products consumption caused by subsidy reform plan decelerates the economic growth or not? To answer this question, we use Panel Data model and quarterly data during 2000Q1-2006Q4 at provincial level. The results indicate that gasoline and gasoil consumption have positive and significant effect on economic growth of the provinces, such that the elasticity of provinces products compared to the gasoline and gasoil consumption is 0.22 and 0.19 respectively. The results also represent that the development expenditures of government and population have positive and significant effect on economic growth. The ratio of population elasticity to the production is larger than the ratio of the production elasticity to the development expenditures of government. According to this research, it can be argued that the limitation of oil products consumption can decelerate the economic growth in Iran provinces. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
152 - The Impacts of Tariff Cuts on the Iranian Labor Market: Case Study of Agricultural, Food, Apparel and Textile Sectors
mohammad mehdi barghi oskooeeAbstract In this paper, the effect of trade openness on the level of employment and the rate of wages has been evaluated by using a computable general equilibrium model. The results represent that through the cuts of general imports tariff, the percentage changes of to MoreAbstract In this paper, the effect of trade openness on the level of employment and the rate of wages has been evaluated by using a computable general equilibrium model. The results represent that through the cuts of general imports tariff, the percentage changes of total employment level as well as the employment level of unskilled labor will be increased. Likewise, by decreasing the percentage of skilled labor wages to follow more tariff cuts, wages inequality is improved. Also, it is clear that more tariff cuts on food, apparel and textile commodities will decrease the percentage changes of total level employment and unskilled labors. Since, the percentage changes of skilled labor wages will be increased in comparison with unskilled labors by increasing tariff cuts. Thus, it can be concluded that wider trade openness in the food, apparel and textile commodities leads to the increase of wages inequality. However, under the effect of the tariff cuts in agricultural commodities, the percentage changes of total employment as well as the employment of unskilled labors will be increased and by the decline of percentage changes of skilled labor wages, there is a decrease in the inequality of wages between skilled and unskilled labors. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
153 - The Welfare Computation under Different Fiscal Policies in an Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Model Framework
hosein marzban zahra dehghan parviz rostamzadeh hamidreza izadiThe aim of this paper is computing the welfare under different fiscal policies by using of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model in an optimal monetary and fiscal policy framework for the Iran's economy. In order to investigating the effects of using tax MoreThe aim of this paper is computing the welfare under different fiscal policies by using of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model in an optimal monetary and fiscal policy framework for the Iran's economy. In order to investigating the effects of using tax instruments some different scenarios were provided. First scenario, the case with all taxes available, Second scenario, the case without consumption taxes, third scenario, the case of income and consumption taxes. The results indicate that the number of fiscal policy instruments available to the planner, plays an important role in the welfare changes in the optimal monetary and fiscal policy model. The minimum welfare loss occurs in last scenario and the maximum of welfare loss is related to second scenario. The proposal is that planner deal with determining polices in an optimum fiscal and monetary policy model, regarding available fiscal policy instruments and effects from economic shocks on welfare changes. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
154 - Relationship Between Economic Freedom and Public-Private Partnerships and Developing a Model for Iran
Developing infrastructure projects and providing effective, high-quality services are among the critical factors in economic growth. By investigating the related literature, we can find a relation between economic freedom and public-private part More Developing infrastructure projects and providing effective, high-quality services are among the critical factors in economic growth. By investigating the related literature, we can find a relation between economic freedom and public-private partnership. In this paper, the relation between economic freedom and public-private partnership has been investigated by using panel data of 29 developing countries during 1999-2008. The results show that only ownership index has direct relation with public-private partnership in Iran and other indices, such as "trade freedom", "investment freedom", and "financial freedom" has statistical, inverted relation with public-private partnership; however, the results indicate that there is no statistical relation between "business freedom", "financial freedom", "government size', "monetary freedom", "anti-corruption freedom" and public-private partnership Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
155 - The Effect of Prices Changes on Income and Welfare Distribution in Urban Areas
teymoor mohammadi Abbas Shakeri Mahnoosh Abdollah milani Ali ShahabiAbstract The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of price changes on the distribution of income and social welfare in Iranian urban areas during 1991-2011. To get the end, a linear expenditure system is estimated by the use of budget data in urban households t MoreAbstract The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of price changes on the distribution of income and social welfare in Iranian urban areas during 1991-2011. To get the end, a linear expenditure system is estimated by the use of budget data in urban households to obtain the Engel coefficients for 12 good groups estimating seemingly unrelated regressions. Equivalent Income Index is calculated for 10 cost deciles based on what Atkinson’s inequality measure and social welfare index is calculated. The results represent that income inequality of urban households has been increased during the periods of high inflation, while social welfare has experienced a decreased growth. Meanwhile, it is clear that a remarkable part of social welfare changes is aroused by the changes of household's private welfare. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
156 - Time-varying Effects of Inflation Determinants: State-space Models
m. khezri B. Sahabi K. Yavari H. HeidariAbstract Based on the importance of inflation in Iran economy, paying careful attention to inflation determinants is essential. According to the results of various studies, the evaluation of inflaion determinants by using standard VAR model leads to wrong conclusions d MoreAbstract Based on the importance of inflation in Iran economy, paying careful attention to inflation determinants is essential. According to the results of various studies, the evaluation of inflaion determinants by using standard VAR model leads to wrong conclusions due to omitted variables bias in VAR model. The problem of price puzzle in the empirical literature is an example. In this study, for a more accurate assessment of the determinants of inflation in Iran economy and forecasting the inflation, TVP-VAR models are used to model the inflation instead of VAR model with constant coefficients. So that the variables of GDP, growth of monetary basis, inflation, exchange rates,banks interest rates and inflation uncertainty are modeled. The results represent changeable relationships between variables over time and the impact of economic conditions on the effects of variables on each other. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
157 - Inflation Behavior of Tradable and Non-Tradable Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Approach
javid bahrami Behnoosh sadat Aghayan esfandiar jahangardAbstract The purpose of this paper is to study the factors affecting Tradable and Non-tradable inflation. Accordingly, Dynamic stochastic General Equilibrium model was used during the period 1991 to 2016. The results of the Impulse Response Functions (IRF) indicate tha MoreAbstract The purpose of this paper is to study the factors affecting Tradable and Non-tradable inflation. Accordingly, Dynamic stochastic General Equilibrium model was used during the period 1991 to 2016. The results of the Impulse Response Functions (IRF) indicate that non-tradable inflation is more responsive as a result of shocks. Monetary shock has had the greatest impact on non-tradable inflation, while Exchange rate and monetary shock have the greatest impact on tradable inflation in terms of initial effect and durability respectively. Based on the results, policy makers' attention to the components of inflation is suggested when economic decisions are made. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
158 - The Macroeconomic Effects of Structural Reforms in Iran's Retirement System
hoda jafari Abbas Najafizadeh Esmaieel Safarzade Gholam Ali HajiAbstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate the distributive and welfare effects of the transition from the current payment system to a partially funding system in Iran. For this purpose a six period OLG Models have been designed and simulated. The simulation MoreAbstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate the distributive and welfare effects of the transition from the current payment system to a partially funding system in Iran. For this purpose a six period OLG Models have been designed and simulated. The simulation results of the specified model show that, the consumption of all generations has increased and the saving of individuals and, consequently, capital accumulation in the economy is decline due to these reforms; the result of these changes is the decline in total production of economy. Based on these results and the widespread recession in the country's economy, it is suggested that policymakers do not resort to structural reforms and transition to funded system. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
159 - Examine The Asymmetric Effects of oil Price shocks on Iran’s Economic Growth and Interest Rate: Nonlinear VAR Model
saeed samadi ali sarkhosh-sara Omid Amini DarrevazanAbstract The aim of this paper Major part of GDP of Iran driven by oil revenues. As the oil price fluctuations vary the oil incomes, assess the effect of this variation on economic growth is a matter of importance. In this regard, this survey investigate the asymmetric MoreAbstract The aim of this paper Major part of GDP of Iran driven by oil revenues. As the oil price fluctuations vary the oil incomes, assess the effect of this variation on economic growth is a matter of importance. In this regard, this survey investigate the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on Iran's economic growth and interest rate using seasonal data from 1999:4 to 2015: 3 using self-equilibrium pattern of nonlinear transient nonlinear transmission (LSTVAR) series, including high and low oscillation regimes. Oil price fluctuations are selected as a transition variable, and using the generalized instantaneous reaction function, the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on economic growth and interest rate have been examined. The results indicate that oil price shocks in both high and low volatility regimes have different and asymmetric effects on economic growth and interest rate. The shock of oil prices in the high-fluctuation regime at the start will reduce economic growth to a greater extent than the increase in economic growth in a regime with low volatility. According to the results, it is suggested that saving excess oil revenues in oil price increases should be considered so that this surplus can be used to reduce the adverse effects of oil price fluctuations. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
160 - The Reasons of Differences Between the Wages of Large Industries in Iran
hamid kordbacheh Ali souriBased on the efficiency of wage hypothesis, this paper examines the determinants of wage dispersion of large manufacturing industries using a panel of 4-digit ISIC data during the period of 1998-2007 in Iran. The findings explain that there is a significant difference b MoreBased on the efficiency of wage hypothesis, this paper examines the determinants of wage dispersion of large manufacturing industries using a panel of 4-digit ISIC data during the period of 1998-2007 in Iran. The findings explain that there is a significant difference between wages in the sampled data. By eliminating the effects of individual measured and firm characteristics such as gender, education, expert, experience, efficiency, firm size and so on. The differences in wages have remained significant yet. The results confirm the efficiency of wage theory, in which the wages dispersion cannot merely attribute to labor force characteristics. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
161 - The Relationship between ICT, Exports and Non-Exports Sectors and Economic Growth in Iran: A Generalization of Feder Model
saber motaghed homayun ranjbar seed daei karimzadehInformation and Communication Technology (ICT) is a growing industry all over the world. It has a very essential impact on GDP and hence economic growth directly. Furthermore, indirectly, it increases productivity and efficiency of export and non-export sectors and impr MoreInformation and Communication Technology (ICT) is a growing industry all over the world. It has a very essential impact on GDP and hence economic growth directly. Furthermore, indirectly, it increases productivity and efficiency of export and non-export sectors and improves economic growth as well. This study provides a generalized version of Feder model to investigate the relationship between ICT, export, and non-export sectors and economic growth. An econometric model is estimated in Iran during 1978 - 2010 by using ARDL co-integration method. The results represent that ICT and export have a positive significant effect on economic growth in Iran. On the other hand, ICT has a positive significant external effect on export and non-export sectors. Export has also a positive external effect on non-export sector. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
162 - Economic Freedom and Inflation: a Cross-Country analysis
In this article, the effects of economic freedom on inflation in the Middle East and North of Africa (MENA) region have been evaluated during 1996-2006 by applying panel data regression analysis on the basis of Gordon Triangular Inflation Model. More In this article, the effects of economic freedom on inflation in the Middle East and North of Africa (MENA) region have been evaluated during 1996-2006 by applying panel data regression analysis on the basis of Gordon Triangular Inflation Model. The results show that economic freedom leaves no significant effects on inflation in the menthioned region during the specified period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
163 - Normal Monopoly in Iran Telecommunication Market
In this article, the structure of Iran telecommunication market, its performance and the cost structures of telecommunication companies have been investigated by estimating appropriate cost function and applying panel data during 2004-2008. &nbs MoreIn this article, the structure of Iran telecommunication market, its performance and the cost structures of telecommunication companies have been investigated by estimating appropriate cost function and applying panel data during 2004-2008. Results show telecommunication market has additivity function and introducing new, competitive enterprises in this market would lead to the efficiency decrease, so current monopoly seems to be more efficient. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
164 - The effect of Monetary Policy on the GDP by the Loan Channel of Bank System in Iran
Authorities and economists always try to use suitable monetary and financial tools to achieve economical development. About monetary policies, usually, the central bank tries to use means like legal reserve rate, bands and high rate of discount affecting the cash to pro MoreAuthorities and economists always try to use suitable monetary and financial tools to achieve economical development. About monetary policies, usually, the central bank tries to use means like legal reserve rate, bands and high rate of discount affecting the cash to provide the development facilities. Monetary policies affect the production and inflation by different channels such as interest rate, exchange rate and the price of the other assent and credits that are the most important of these channels. The aim of this research is to consider the effect of the monetary policy on the production and inflation through bank credit channel (Loan Channel) during 1368-1387 in Iran. So the effect of monetary policy will be considered through bank loan channel by Vector Error Correction model (VEC). In general the results show that with increasing the amount of money by developing bank debts to the central bank, only the production level will be expanded in short-term and even it has negative effect on in long-term. But the general level of prices will be increased in short and long-term. So, the use of this policy tools affecting the level of the production is not suitable but it can help as an anti-inflationary policy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
165 - The Effects of Development Iran’s Economy Sectors on Income increase in Urban and Rural Groups
mohamad Kiani deh kiani seyed habib allah mousavi Sadegh khalilianThe purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of development Iran’s economy sectors on increasing the income of low, middle and high income urban and rural groups. To achieve this goal, the effects of development eight main sectors of Iran’ economy MoreThe purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of development Iran’s economy sectors on increasing the income of low, middle and high income urban and rural groups. To achieve this goal, the effects of development eight main sectors of Iran’ economy on income increase of urban and rural groups were studied by using social accounting matrix (2011) and structural analysis method. The results show that the effects of agricultural development and expansion on earnings income increment per unit increase in the final demand of this sector for all urban and rural income groups are higher than other sectors and the crude oil and natural gas sector has the least effect. Also, urban group income increase is higher than rural. Based on this, it is suggested that the agricultural sector be considered seriously in the process of development and decision-making programs for investment in the economic sectors as well as the need to pay attention to income groups. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
166 - Pricing Model of National Gas Exports via Pipeline on the Base of Game Theory
Ali Akbar Naji Meidani Gholam Ali RahimiOne of the most important issues in the field of natural gas export via pipeline is the lack of pricing strategy, and providing an optimum pricing mechanism has always been one of the biggest challenges for gas export contracts. In this paper a pricing mechanism based o MoreOne of the most important issues in the field of natural gas export via pipeline is the lack of pricing strategy, and providing an optimum pricing mechanism has always been one of the biggest challenges for gas export contracts. In this paper a pricing mechanism based on Game theory provided. The pricing mechanism has been developed based on cooperation among producing countries, consumers and gas transmitters that in the case of gas-exporting countries' commitment to it, the interests of these countries will be supplied. So, taking into account the realities of the market and according to the conditions of transmitter country, different scenarios have been compiled and according to it, the modeling is accomplished. The results of the different models in determining price, quantity and optimum tariff for two cooperative and non-cooperative games is that the interest of member countries in cooperative game is far greater than non-cooperative game. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
167 - TFP Growth, Technological Progress, Efficiency Changes: Empirical Evidence from Iranian Manufacturing Industries
saeed isazadeh masoud soufimajidpourThe purpose of this paper is decomposition of total factor productivity (TFP) to technological progress, technical efficiency, allocative efficiency, scale effects in Iran’s manufacturing industries. For this, a stochastic Frontier production model was estimated f MoreThe purpose of this paper is decomposition of total factor productivity (TFP) to technological progress, technical efficiency, allocative efficiency, scale effects in Iran’s manufacturing industries. For this, a stochastic Frontier production model was estimated for 135 manufacturing industries over the period 1379-1393. The findings showed that technological progress in 21 industrial groups has been grew on average 12 percent annually. In relation to technical efficiency many of technical industries have been weaken in using exist technologies or have been inefficient technically. The third factor findings showed that Iran’s manufacturing industries have been utilized from scale effects. In relation to allocative efficiency, also, all groups have experienced negative growth except Recycle group. In result, among components of total factor productivity, allocative efficiency has been more unfavorable and it refers to in Iran’s economy the resources allocate in unfavorable. On the base of the results, improvement in financing system, increasing in private sector capacitance, improvement in business space are suggested. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
168 - The Analysis of Kuznets – Ahluvalia Hypothesis in Rural Areas of Iran
Today in development economics literature there is relation between growth and distribution of income (Fan, 2007). The main objective of this study is to investigate the effects of public investments such as agricultural R&D, infrastructure, education and Irrigation MoreToday in development economics literature there is relation between growth and distribution of income (Fan, 2007). The main objective of this study is to investigate the effects of public investments such as agricultural R&D, infrastructure, education and Irrigation on income inequality in rural areas of Iran. However this research attempts to investigate the direction of causality between the income inequality and total factor productivity (TFP) in Iran. Using ARDL methods and period from 1980 to 2008, empirical results show there is inverse U shape relationship between income inequality and agricultural TFP in rural areas of Iran ( Kuznets hypothesis ) . Hence , additional investments in rural education and agricultural R&D have significant and different impacts on income inequality .findings showed that Kuznets hypothesis developed for relation among income inequality , TFP and openness of economic are supported in case of Iran rural areas . Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
169 - Analysis of the Evolutionary Game Theory among Iran & Saudi Arabia in the Context of Genetic Algorithm
samaneh khatami alireza shakibaeeEvolutionary game theory has been known as the most suitable tool for modeling the dynamics of strategic interactions. In this regard, evolutionary algorithms present the new approach for learning and decision modeling of bounded rationality factors. The objective of th MoreEvolutionary game theory has been known as the most suitable tool for modeling the dynamics of strategic interactions. In this regard, evolutionary algorithms present the new approach for learning and decision modeling of bounded rationality factors. The objective of this study is providing the new model of searching for optimal strategies in iterated prisoner's dilemma (IPD) using genetic algorithm. For this purpose, by simulating competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia in OPEC oil Coalition, we used 12 strategy types over 20 runs of genetic algorithm for maximizing individual’s scores and also minimizing competitor fitness scores. Results show that “Tit for Tat” with the highest average fitness in both competitions known as the optimal strategy. The other strategis like; Soft Majority, Trigger & TF2T are next in ranking. The strategy “All D” is known as inefficient strategy in competition with the lowest productivity. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
170 - Estimation of Welfare in Iran Provinces: A Non-Paretian and Decomposition Welfare Function Approach to population
Mohammad Nabi Shahiki Tash Mojtaba Shahiki Tash Elham ShivaieIn this study, cardinal index of the age and welfare function elasticity are used to evaluate the social welfare compared to efficiency and inequality in Iran Provinces. The results indicate that Tehran, Bushehr, Markazi provinces have the higher welfare coefficient and MoreIn this study, cardinal index of the age and welfare function elasticity are used to evaluate the social welfare compared to efficiency and inequality in Iran Provinces. The results indicate that Tehran, Bushehr, Markazi provinces have the higher welfare coefficient and Sistan and Bluchestan and Kurdestan provinces have the least rate of welfare in Iran. Also, the findings reveal that there are no significance relation between the rate of welfare and population in Iran provinces. So, it is proposed that the welfare index can be improved by increasing income in some provinces like Tehran, Isfahan, Khoozestan and Khorasan-e-Razavi, but by the reduction of inequality level in some other provinces such as Yazd and Hamedan. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
171 - Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Happiness: Cross-Country Study with Extreme-Bound Analysis Approach
The purpose of this paper is evaluating the effect of environmental and voluntary variables on level of happiness in developed and developing countries. In this paper, the effect of environmental and voluntary variables on happiness was estimated using extreme-bound ana MoreThe purpose of this paper is evaluating the effect of environmental and voluntary variables on level of happiness in developed and developing countries. In this paper, the effect of environmental and voluntary variables on happiness was estimated using extreme-bound analysis (EBA) and group panel data technique in 1990-99 and 2000-2008 periods. The level of happiness in developed countries (in average 7.1) is more than developing countries (in average 5.9). Environmental factors (high income per capita and low inflation and unemployment) and health care (such as high life expectancy as resultant of environmental and voluntary factors) are key factors which can explain the difference of happiness in developed and developing countries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
172 - Effects of Targeting Subsidies on Agricultural Sector in Iran
ahmad tashkiniThis study tries to examine the impact of liberalization on the price of energy carriers including gasoline, kerosene, gasoline, fuel oil, LPG, electricity and natural gas on agricultural sector in Iran by using Social Accounting Matrix. Despite of 13-20 percent of agri MoreThis study tries to examine the impact of liberalization on the price of energy carriers including gasoline, kerosene, gasoline, fuel oil, LPG, electricity and natural gas on agricultural sector in Iran by using Social Accounting Matrix. Despite of 13-20 percent of agriculture contribution to GDP and employment, only 3.8 percent of total energy consumption is allocated to it during 2001-2009. The results of Social Accounting Matrix represent 57 and 41 percent growth in producer price index of agricultural products according to two scenarios (the average growth percentage of 2100 and 1570 in energy prices). Gasoline, by 40 percent of total direct and indirect effects, has the highest share in the increase of price index of agricultural production. To compensate the energy price liberalization on the agricultural sector, prolonging the rise of energy prices in the agricultural sector, preferential prices for electricity use in agriculture and energy efficiency in agriculture can be proposed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
173 - The Effect of Central Bank Transparency on the Output Volatility
Mohamad ali Ehsani Reza IzadiThis paper investigates the effect of central bank transparency on output volatility in selected states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (based on the maximum data availability) during the period 2003-2014. Applying the Arellano-Bond GMM estimation and using t MoreThis paper investigates the effect of central bank transparency on output volatility in selected states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (based on the maximum data availability) during the period 2003-2014. Applying the Arellano-Bond GMM estimation and using the Dincer and Eichengreen transparency index, we examine the effect of central bank transparency on output volatility. The results indicate that an increase in the level of central bank transparency will decrease output volatility up to a certain point, after which additional information from central banks begins to exacerbate it. Therefore, moving with caution towards monetary policy transparency is recommended since the output volatility can be reduced considerably, implying significant benefits for output stability. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
174 - The Relationship between Efficiency and Industrial Concentration of Food and Beverage Industries in Iran
K. soheili SH. Fattahi M.S zabihi dan M. hadizadeganIn this paper, the relationship between scale efficiency and industrial concentration of 22 food and beverages industries are studied during 1997-2007. In this regard, the scale efficiency is calculated firstly. Then, industrial concentration is assessed by using Herfin MoreIn this paper, the relationship between scale efficiency and industrial concentration of 22 food and beverages industries are studied during 1997-2007. In this regard, the scale efficiency is calculated firstly. Then, industrial concentration is assessed by using Herfindahl- Hirschman index. Furthermore, by the help of Granger causality test, the causality relationship between scale efficiency and concentration variables is determined. The results of this research indicate that there is one-sided causality from concentration toward efficiency. Estimated Panel model confirms the validity of QL theory using 2SLS approach and shows that the increase of concentration reduces the efficiency of food and beverage industries in Iran. Thus, in order to increase the efficiency of food and beverage industries, policy makings should be focused on reducing concentration in these industries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
175 - The Effects of Technology Imports and Higher Education Employees on Food and Beverages Exports
hosein asgharpour hasan abdiThis paper investigates the effects of technology imports and employing higher educated people on the export of food and beverages in Iran by using a panel data during 2000-2007. The empirical results show that the import of technology and use of higher education have a MoreThis paper investigates the effects of technology imports and employing higher educated people on the export of food and beverages in Iran by using a panel data during 2000-2007. The empirical results show that the import of technology and use of higher education have a positive and significant effect on the export of food and beverages. In addition, domestic demand of industrial production and price index of export goods have negative and significant effects on the food and beverages export. An important policy recommendation is that this paper tries to attract college-educated workforces along the country to provide food and beverage industry and facilitate the entry of foreign technology to reduce the cost of production exports. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
176 - The Effect of E-government on the Reduction of Economic Corruption in Islamic Countries selected
mohamad ali motefaker azad zeinab jameh shoorani zeinab heideri dadThis paper examines the impact of E-Government on the economic corruption in 34 selected countries of OIC during 2003-2011. Therefore, a random panel method like GLS will be used by considering heteroskedasticity to achieve the goal. The results represent that the impro MoreThis paper examines the impact of E-Government on the economic corruption in 34 selected countries of OIC during 2003-2011. Therefore, a random panel method like GLS will be used by considering heteroskedasticity to achieve the goal. The results represent that the improvement of E-government can reduce economic corruption of all countries. It can be possible only when more investment to be done on constructing and then improving E-government. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
177 - Effects of Human Capital on Economic Growth in Iran
Abstract The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of this factor on the Iranian economic growth of Iran the required data were collected by from various issues of Central Bank of Iran, Statistical Center of Iran and PDS economic database during the1974-2007. The MoreAbstract The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of this factor on the Iranian economic growth of Iran the required data were collected by from various issues of Central Bank of Iran, Statistical Center of Iran and PDS economic database during the1974-2007. The number of employ people enjoyed higher education as a proxy of human capital was entered into the growth equation to estimate the model under ARDL approach. The results showed that human capital has a positive and significant impact on the economic growth both long and short run. In addition, the long term relationship between the independent variables and dependent variables of the model was confirmed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
178 - Estimation of Poverty Indices in Iranian Urban and Rural Households
Ali Akbar KhosravinejadIn this paper, relative poverty will be noted to and, based on utilitarian approach and using Linear Expenditure System, a poverty line is estimated for urban and rural households. Then, head count ratio, poverty gap and Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) index will be calcul MoreIn this paper, relative poverty will be noted to and, based on utilitarian approach and using Linear Expenditure System, a poverty line is estimated for urban and rural households. Then, head count ratio, poverty gap and Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) index will be calculated and analyzed. The results represent that, at the first half of this study, the poverty indicators have almost downward trend, while there is a rise for poverty indicators at the second half. Therefore, more attention, continuous monitoring and efforts for poverty alleviation will be recommended. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
179 - Effect of ICT on Employment in Tehran Manufacturing Industries
Kambiz Hojabr Kiani Sedigheh NematiThis research evaluates the effect of ICT on employment of total and technical workforce. The data will be collected from Tehran manufacturing Industries during 2006-2009. In this study, the production function by Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) will be used a MoreThis research evaluates the effect of ICT on employment of total and technical workforce. The data will be collected from Tehran manufacturing Industries during 2006-2009. In this study, the production function by Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) will be used after selecting Fixed Effect Model (FEM) according to F Test and Housman Chi-squared statistics estimated by ordinary least squares Least Squared Dummy Variable (LSDV). Instead of ICT, four dummy variables are used. The results represent that the use of ICT has a positive and significant effect on total and technical workforce. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
180 - The Effect of Uncertainty in the Current and Constructional Governments Expenses on the Investment of Private Section in Iran Economy
karim emami leila AhmadiThis study is aimed to analyze the effect of uncertainty in the current and constructional Governments Expenses on the investment of private sector in Iran during 1959-2006. Other descriptive variables such as Gross National Product (GNP) and inflation rate are consider MoreThis study is aimed to analyze the effect of uncertainty in the current and constructional Governments Expenses on the investment of private sector in Iran during 1959-2006. Other descriptive variables such as Gross National Product (GNP) and inflation rate are considered. For calculating the uncertainty, an Exponential Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedaticity Model is used (EGARCH (0, 1)). Finally, by the determination of optimal lag and long-term relation, error correction model of VEC was estimated.The results explain that uncertainty of the current and constructional expenses of the government has negative effect on the investment of the private sector in long term. According to this, in short term, uncertainty of the current governmental expenses is not statistically significant on the investment of the private sector, but uncertainty of the governmental constructional expenses has a positive effect on it. The effect of Inflation rate and GNP variables, in short and long term, is negative and positive on the investment of the private sector. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
181 - Identifying Regime Switching of Stock Market Returns in Iran
Seyed Yahya Abtahi Hamed NikfetratFinancial markets tendency to a sudden shift as a result of changes in the investor behavior can lead to the appearance of different regimes of the price and returns in these markets. This paper, the switching behavior of different regimes in Tehran Stock Market will be MoreFinancial markets tendency to a sudden shift as a result of changes in the investor behavior can lead to the appearance of different regimes of the price and returns in these markets. This paper, the switching behavior of different regimes in Tehran Stock Market will be investigated through returns (TEDPIX) indexation Switching model during 2006-2011. The results represent that there are 3 positions or regimes for this market. One has a negative return average and two others have a positive returns average. Also, the stability of the regimes has a positive but low returns average and the change of other regimes to this one is of high probability in this market. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
182 - Inflation Targeting: Optimal Control Approach
Mirhosei Mousavi Zahra MostaaniMany countries like Iran are looking to solve the serious problems caused by inflation. In this research, the authors are to present a way for controlling the inflation during 5th development plan during 2008-2016 in Iran by using Optimal Control theory and Time Series MoreMany countries like Iran are looking to solve the serious problems caused by inflation. In this research, the authors are to present a way for controlling the inflation during 5th development plan during 2008-2016 in Iran by using Optimal Control theory and Time Series data of Central Bank during 1998-2007. The interest rate reaction function will be derived and the central bank loss function subject minimized to exchange rate deviation, inflation as well as production behavior. The results indicate that the monetary authorities should increase the interest rate to reduce the liquidity as the cost of financing investments in the production sector. It leads to the control of the inflation directing to the value targeted. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
183 - Accounting the Growth of in Iran Manufacturing Sector by Emphasizing on ICT
mahmood mahmoodzadeh mirhosein mousavi farzad paknahadAbstract The measurement of contribution of physical capital, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) capital, labor and total factor productivity growth to economic growth has been an important issue in economics for a long time. The aim of this paper is to e MoreAbstract The measurement of contribution of physical capital, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) capital, labor and total factor productivity growth to economic growth has been an important issue in economics for a long time. The aim of this paper is to estimate the contribution of physical capital, ICT capital, labor and total factor productivity growth of manufacturing value added in Iranian manufacturing industries. For this purpose, we used the date of ISIC 2-digit codes during 2000-2007 using growth accounting analysis method. findings shows that the contribution of physical capital in growth is %36, the labor %34, information technology %3 and total productivity %27. So, physical capital and unskilled labor have dominant role in the growth but low in information technology. Also, manufacturing industries has a decreasing return to scale in Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
184 - Economic Investigation of the Crime and It's Inter-Provincial Spillover Effects in Iran: A Spatial Panel Approach
mohsen mehrara Ehsan mohammadian nikpeyAbstract This study investigates the effects of economic and social variables on crimes in Iran by using provincial panel data during 2000-2010. Spatial econometrics is used to study the crime both in space and spillover effects in the model. Research findings suggest MoreAbstract This study investigates the effects of economic and social variables on crimes in Iran by using provincial panel data during 2000-2010. Spatial econometrics is used to study the crime both in space and spillover effects in the model. Research findings suggest that spillover effects caused led by the crimes in provinces are significant in the investigation period. Therefore, any change in crime rate will affect the province and the neighbors by the spillover effects or contagion across boundaries. Furthermore, the results indicate that economic variables of "Income and Industrialization index" and social variables of "Marriage to Divorce Ratio", "Urbanization Ratio" and "Population Increase" all have significant and important effects on the crime along the country. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
185 - Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Air Pollution and Public Health Expenditures - A Dynamic Panel Data Approach
maryam fattahi Abbas Esari hosein sadeghi hosein asgharpourAbstract This study intends to investigate the effect of air pollution on public health expenditures and to identify the most important factors affecting the relationship between air pollution and public health expenditures. The scope of the study is the developing cou MoreAbstract This study intends to investigate the effect of air pollution on public health expenditures and to identify the most important factors affecting the relationship between air pollution and public health expenditures. The scope of the study is the developing countries during 1995-2011. For this purpose, a dynamic panel and Generalized Method of Moments are used. The empirical results indicate that there is a robust and significant relationship between air pollution, per capita income, urbanization, government size, aging dependency and public health expenditure and unemployment have a negative but significant effect on public health expenditures. Also, per capita income, urbanization and education have significant effect on the relationship between air pollution and public health expenditures. That is, the effects of air pollution on health expenditures in the countries with higher per capita income, higher urbanization rates and lower education levels are significantly higher than other countries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
186 - Environmental Impact Assessment of Economic Activity in Iran: An Input-output Approach
Zahra Nasrolahi Zohreh Ahmadi Samaneh EshratiThe experiences represented that the economic development along with irregular use of environment and ecological pollution make serious problems in developed countries. Economic activities will be mixed with increasing consumption of energy and emissions of greenhouse g MoreThe experiences represented that the economic development along with irregular use of environment and ecological pollution make serious problems in developed countries. Economic activities will be mixed with increasing consumption of energy and emissions of greenhouse gas. Considering the importance of economic activities in developing countries, the relationship between economic activities and pollution will be so much significant. Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine the link and relation between economic activities and air pollution using input-output table in Iran, and so, to determine the sectors increasing air pollution more. The findings explained that transportation has the highest role in air pollution. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
187 - Measuring Monopoly Power of Manufacturing Industry in Iran: Stochastic Frontier Functions Approach
Farhad Khodadad Kashi Jafar Ebadi Seyed Ziaoddin Kiaalhoseini Khalil HeidariAbstract The aim of this paper is introducing a new method to estimation monopoly power and uses it for 136 Iranian manufacturing industries at 4 digits ISIC level during 2005-2013. The method used is stochastic frontier approach. The results indicate that the markup o MoreAbstract The aim of this paper is introducing a new method to estimation monopoly power and uses it for 136 Iranian manufacturing industries at 4 digits ISIC level during 2005-2013. The method used is stochastic frontier approach. The results indicate that the markup of nearly 98 percent of manufacturing industries is between 10 and 40 percent and they have an uncompetitive behavior. The average industries markup in Iran had a rising trend over time, reducing their average returns to scale. According to the results; there are suggested canceling the exclusive advantages that used to grant to some industries, lowering the tariff for increasing foreign competition with implementation necessary standards in order to production, importing industerial outputs and expanding industerial activities in the form of cooperatives. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
188 - Effect of Shock Factors Affecting Financial Crises in Iran's Economy: Autoregressive Vector Models Variable-Time Parameters
ozra bayani teimur mohammadi javid bahrami Hossein TavakolianThe purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of shocks on factors affecting financial crises in Iran's economy. In this study 62 explanatory variables were introduced into the model between 1370: 1 and 1395: 4 and, using the Bayesian averaging model approach MoreThe purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of shocks on factors affecting financial crises in Iran's economy. In this study 62 explanatory variables were introduced into the model between 1370: 1 and 1395: 4 and, using the Bayesian averaging model approach, 12 non-critical variables that were effective on the financial crisis were identified. According to the results of the results, it can be stated that the financial crisis index in Iran's economy is a multi-dimensional problem, as variables related to fiscal policy; monetary policy and foreign exchange policy affect this index. Based on the results of the Autoregressive Vector Models Variable-Time Parameters, it was also observed that the effect of selected variables on financial crises in Iran over the course of time has had different effects and in recent years the intensity of the effect of selected variables has been strengthened. One of the fundamental solutions is that policies that reduce inflation uncertainty, such as the fiscal and monetary discipline of the government and the central bank, reduce crisis expectations by stabilizing the currency and currency markets can reduce crisis uncertainty. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
189 - The Productivity of Energy and the Effective Factors on it. (Manufacturing Industries of IRAN)
Ebrahim Niknaghsh نقی شجاع Amir Gholam Abri Mohamad Mehdi MovahediThe main goal of the present study is to evaluate the total energy productivity and the effective factors on 134 manufacturing industries in Iran with a four digit code and also ISIC international classification among 1385 to 1394. To do this, with data envelopment anal MoreThe main goal of the present study is to evaluate the total energy productivity and the effective factors on 134 manufacturing industries in Iran with a four digit code and also ISIC international classification among 1385 to 1394. To do this, with data envelopment analysis and Malmquist method the technical, technological efficiency and the total energy productivity are calculated on the manufacturing industries in Iran. And then by fixed effects method and generalized method of moments (GMM),the effect factors on the total Energy Productivity was calculated. The results of the model showed that the total Manufacturing Industries experiences a technological positive growth, but some have been technically efficient. In all, the findings showed the growth of the total energy productivity in the manufacturing industries. The findings based on the model showed that variables such as skills, information communication technologies (ICT), research and development, physical capital and machinery and equipment , export and time are meaningful effect and just variable education is meaningless effect on the total energy productivity. Based on the results, reviewing the work style, improving managerial skills ,Government subsidized support of production and investment, imports tariff reduction of capital equipment and machinery of the industries with less energy consumption is recommended. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
190 - The Effect of Eliminating Energy Subsidies on Industry Cost Structure in Iran
ali akbar naji meidani salman sotoodeh niakaraniThe main objective of this paper is to examine the effects of raising the prices of energies like gasoline, gas oil, LPG, kerosene and fuel oil on the cost structure of enterprises in Iran. To get the goal, the criterion of Compensation Variations (CV) has been used in MoreThe main objective of this paper is to examine the effects of raising the prices of energies like gasoline, gas oil, LPG, kerosene and fuel oil on the cost structure of enterprises in Iran. To get the goal, the criterion of Compensation Variations (CV) has been used in a partial equilibrium approach. To calculate Compensation Variations (CV), the change fee imposed on energy prices is used during 2010- 2013. The elimination of subsidies leads to 30 percent increase in the cost of manufacturing industries of the country in 2010. For the years 2011, 2012 and 2013, the cost increases to 28, 30 and 32 percent respectively. The loss ratio imposed by increased prices on various industries has started in 2010 and continued to accelerate until 2013. Therefore, to secure the desirability level prior to the implementation of the policy in 2010, 6063831 million Rials must be paid to the enterprises active in this section. For 2011, 2012 and 2013 the sum is 7678227, 10365607 and 15030129 million Rials respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
191 - Analyzing the Relationship between Wireless Communication Company and its Subscribers through Dynamic Games
Omid Ali AdeliAbstract Wireless Communication Company (WCC) usually faces the problem of in-time phone bill payment by some subscribers and so encountering this group is a very sensitive challenge. In this paper, the researcher tries to analyze this problem through dynamic games by MoreAbstract Wireless Communication Company (WCC) usually faces the problem of in-time phone bill payment by some subscribers and so encountering this group is a very sensitive challenge. In this paper, the researcher tries to analyze this problem through dynamic games by complete information to consider the possible choices of the company, as well as some assumptions about typical subscriber preferences and ranking them. The way of action, existing strategies and their consequences, the sub-game equilibrium, and the total game will be shown in the form of a wide spread game. It is then solved using Sub-game Perfect Equilibrium method (SPE). The game equilibrium reveals that WCC will disconnect the subscriber's phone in one directional form when he or she does not pay the bill and the subscriber quickly reacts via paying the bill and not using the company's services any more. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
192 - The Effect of Oil Rent on Corruption in Selected Meddle East and North Africa Countries (MENA)
Mehdi Adibpour sina karbasizadehAbstract The aim of this study is to examine the effect of oil rent on corruption within the Selected Middle East and North Africa’s oil-rich countries (MENA) by using a panel data model over the period 2003 to 2016. For this purpose, the effect some control vari MoreAbstract The aim of this study is to examine the effect of oil rent on corruption within the Selected Middle East and North Africa’s oil-rich countries (MENA) by using a panel data model over the period 2003 to 2016. For this purpose, the effect some control variables such as oil production, economic openness degree, democracy index, political right index, individual liberties index, per capita production and inflation on corruption has been considered. The results showed that oil rent has statistically significant negative impact on corruption index. Economic openness degree increase and democracy improvement and institutional quality improvement significantly decrease corruption. However, other control variables have not significantly effect on corruption index. In addition to, institutional quality variable as moderating index of relationship between oil rent and corruption was been considered but its significant effect on the relationship between these two variables was not been confirmed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
193 - Iran and Qatar Cooperation in Gas Production from South Pars (North Dome) Gas-Condensate Field: A Game Theory Framework
Elmira Bayati Bijan Safavi Amir JafarzadehAbstract The purpose of this article is to examine the cooperation between Iran and Qatar in withdrawal of shared reservoirs of South Pars gas field (in Qatar: North Dome) by using game theory. The failure of a credible international agreement in determining the magnit MoreAbstract The purpose of this article is to examine the cooperation between Iran and Qatar in withdrawal of shared reservoirs of South Pars gas field (in Qatar: North Dome) by using game theory. The failure of a credible international agreement in determining the magnitude of the exploitation has led Qatar to become more promising by investing more in its oil and gas industries than Iran; this imbalance has caused a rash and pernicious competition. Following this incident, the main purpose of the paper is to examine the type of communication (cooperative or non-cooperative) through the game theory to achieve an optimal economic strategy for Iran. Results based on non-cooperative game design, solving methods through methods of elimination of dominated strategies (dominate strategies equilibrium), and Nash equilibrium showed that choosing the non-cooperative strategy is optimized for both countries and non-cooperation has more economic benefits for Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
194 - Study of Casual Relationship Between Democracy and Economic Growth by Using Panel Data
The relationship between democracy and economic growth has been one of the most important issues in recent years. Some economists believe that increased democracy and political freedom result in the economic growth. On the other hand, many politicians suggest that any i MoreThe relationship between democracy and economic growth has been one of the most important issues in recent years. Some economists believe that increased democracy and political freedom result in the economic growth. On the other hand, many politicians suggest that any increase in the growth rate and material welfare improvement of the society gives rise to the demand of democracy. In this paper, these two approaches have been considered using Causality Test and Panel Data for countries. The results indicate a two-way casualty between democracy and economic growth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
195 - Non-Interest Income, Profitability and Risk in Banking Industry
Amir Ali Farhang Abolghasem Esna Ashari Asghar Abolhasani Mohammad Reza Ranjbar Fallah Jahangir BiabaniThe aim of this study is evaluating the effect of non-interest income on the risk and profitability of the banking industry by using systematic GMM during 1384 to 1393. The findings show that the increase of non-interest income results in the increase of profitability a MoreThe aim of this study is evaluating the effect of non-interest income on the risk and profitability of the banking industry by using systematic GMM during 1384 to 1393. The findings show that the increase of non-interest income results in the increase of profitability and the decrease of risk in Iran's banking system and there is a significant positive relationship between the concentration index and bank risk in such a way that the increase of concentration index results in increase of banks' risks. On the base of the research results and current problems of Iran's banking system, paying attention to banks' money making ability through non-interest income can be considered as a major solution. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
196 - Income and Price Sensitivity in Urban Households: (AIDS and Rotterdam Differential Models Approach)
In this article, the income and price sensitivity of the urban households have been evaluated during 2006-2007 based on AIDS and Rotterdam Differential Model. The results of Marshall, Hicks and Allen elasticity indicate that all the commodity gr More In this article, the income and price sensitivity of the urban households have been evaluated during 2006-2007 based on AIDS and Rotterdam Differential Model. The results of Marshall, Hicks and Allen elasticity indicate that all the commodity groups are complied by the demand rule. Marshall price elasticity show that the most price sensitivity lays first in the transportation and then in the furniture groups. Findings of Hicks elasticity show that food with furniture group is considered as complement of Hicks-Allen, while food with other commodity group seems to be replacement of Hicks-Allen. Meantime, findings of Allen replacement elasticity reveal that the most Allen replacement is in the housing and transportation groups. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
197 - Investigating the Relationship between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty in Iran by Using Markov-Switching Regression
Ali Hosein Samadi Sharareh Majdzadeh tabatabaeeThis paper studies the relation between inflation rates and its uncertainty by using Markov-Switching regression model and monthly data of consumer price index during 1990:01-2012:09 in Iran. Inflation uncertainty is estimated by using Generalized Autoregressive Conditi MoreThis paper studies the relation between inflation rates and its uncertainty by using Markov-Switching regression model and monthly data of consumer price index during 1990:01-2012:09 in Iran. Inflation uncertainty is estimated by using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastisity (GARCH) model. The empirical results of Markov Switching Auto Regressive (MSAR) model represent the presence of two clearly differentiated regimes over the entire Sample. The first regime corresponds to a high level inflation rate, low volatility, and the second regime corresponds to low level inflation, high volatility. The use of Markov-Switching Regression Model indicates that the increase of inflation rate will be associated to higher uncertainty according to both regimes. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
198 - Mixed-Strategy Nash Equilibrium and Soccer Players A Case Study of Penalty Kicks
morteza sameti mehdi fath abadi kamran kasraei Mixed strategy Nash equilibrium (MSNE) is a concept commonly used in Game Theory. The game between the kicker and goalkeeper in soccer penalty kicks is a real game used to examine the application of the MSNE concept or the rate of its accuracy. The data were colle More Mixed strategy Nash equilibrium (MSNE) is a concept commonly used in Game Theory. The game between the kicker and goalkeeper in soccer penalty kicks is a real game used to examine the application of the MSNE concept or the rate of its accuracy. The data were collected on the direction of kicks and jumps in 106 penalties kicked in Premier League of Iran and the predictions of the model analyzed. The observations represented that given the probability distribution of kick direction, the optimal strategy for goalkeepers is to stay in the center of the goal; but the goalkeepers, almost always, jumped to the right or left. Finally, the “left-left” pattern is the most frequent and have the greatest number of observations. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
199 - Impact of Economic Freedom on the Development of Banking Sector in Iran
A. Shahabadi R. Davari KishAbstract The most important aspect of financial development is the banking sector that has significant impact on the process of equipping the savings, identifying investment opportunities and diversifying the risk. Economic freedom is a determinant factor in developing MoreAbstract The most important aspect of financial development is the banking sector that has significant impact on the process of equipping the savings, identifying investment opportunities and diversifying the risk. Economic freedom is a determinant factor in developing the banking sector. The increase of economic freedom provides the setting of financial resources equipment, strengthens the sense of bank deposit in general population to guide them for limited capital in productive activities. Hence, in this study, the impact of economic freedom index on the development of the banking sector in Iran during 1980-2011 will be discussed. The results represent that economic freedom and its components have a significant and positive relationship to the development of banking sector. Also, based on the results, the estimation of the impact of central bank foreign assets on monetary base and Real interest rate on the development of banking sector is positive and significant. Also, the effect of public sector debt to central bank on monetary base is negative but significant. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
200 - The Effect of Environmental Performance on Happiness: A Cross-country Analysis
hadis hesabi morteza khorsandi hosein abbasinejad Hassan Dehghan ShourkandThis article seeks to find the relationship between happiness and environmental quality. So, the effect of environmental performance index on happiness was evaluated by using data sets of 155 countries during time interval 2006-2016 (as biannual) with panel data method. MoreThis article seeks to find the relationship between happiness and environmental quality. So, the effect of environmental performance index on happiness was evaluated by using data sets of 155 countries during time interval 2006-2016 (as biannual) with panel data method. The results indicate that the improvement of environmental performance index has a positive and significant effect of 6 percent on happiness. On the other hand, the results indicate that the effect of control variables including Gini coefficient and negative impact of environment (An average of negative feelings from environment) was negative, while having the freedom of choice is a positive effect on happiness. Apparently, previous studies confirm the validity of obtained results. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
201 - Economic Theory of Optimal Marriage
vahid mehrbaniEconomic approach to the marriage represent that optimal conditions in family formation are realized whenever the man loves equally himself and his wife and so the household resources will be equally distributed. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to consider the MoreEconomic approach to the marriage represent that optimal conditions in family formation are realized whenever the man loves equally himself and his wife and so the household resources will be equally distributed. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to consider the credibility of this idea and to find empirical evidence. By using a sample including of 415 married men residing in Tehran, empirical evidence suggest that higher income of women tends to convey marriage to optimality but the age and education of women go in opposite direction. In addition, the number of children and the degree of resemblance of couples' tastes will have positive impact on reaching to optimal marriage. At last, marriage will be close to optimality, if the men’s education is higher than the women’s occurred in lower ages and the number of children and the degree of understanding between the couples is more. The most important implication of this paper is that the similar characteristics of men and women are not necessarily a favorite situation in marriage but some discrepancies seem to be better. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
202 - Studying the Effect of Price Changes on the Welfare of Urban Households Disaggregated By Income Deciles and Commodity Groups
mohammadreza Arman mehr Asieh FarahmandmaneshThis study has assessed the welfare effects based on increasing in the price of eight commodity groups. This research has been accomplished among Iranian urban households of different income deciles in terms of linear expenditure system via using Compensating Variations MoreThis study has assessed the welfare effects based on increasing in the price of eight commodity groups. This research has been accomplished among Iranian urban households of different income deciles in terms of linear expenditure system via using Compensating Variations in the period 1372-1392 by time series data. The results indicate that the increasing in prices leads to decreasing the welfare of lower income deciles rather than the higher income deciles, but with rising price a group commodity(and stability of prices of other commodity groups) in terms of reduced welfare, the most vulnerable income deciles is different. Based on the results, it is suggested that the amount and type of subsidy to the income deciles must be different, and special attention must be paid to low-income groups in the liberation of prices due to inflation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
203 - Factors affecting the level of investment in listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange
The objective of this paper is to identify the effective elements on the level of companies’ investment. So, affected by 7 selected variables like cash flow, Tobin ratio, growth rate of in come divided payments, announced payments, liabilities changes, paid-in cap MoreThe objective of this paper is to identify the effective elements on the level of companies’ investment. So, affected by 7 selected variables like cash flow, Tobin ratio, growth rate of in come divided payments, announced payments, liabilities changes, paid-in capital on the level of companies investment have been researched. By using the data of 100 companies as a sample and applying Regression OLS from 2002 to 2008, we will continue the research. The results represent that factors like cash flow, Tobin q ratio, divided payments and announcements and liabilities changes affect the level of investment. But the rate of growth and paid-in capital don’t affect the level of investment. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
204 - Investigating the Relationship between Trade and Financial Openness with Ecological Footprint
Hossein-Ali Fakher Zahra Abedi Bita ShayganiThe major aim of this paper is the survey of impact of trade and financial openness on ecological footprint in selected developing countries. In this paper, it has been tried to test the effect of trade and financial openness on ecological footprint in the form of simul MoreThe major aim of this paper is the survey of impact of trade and financial openness on ecological footprint in selected developing countries. In this paper, it has been tried to test the effect of trade and financial openness on ecological footprint in the form of simultaneous-equation system on the base of panel data to the years from 1994 to 2014. The results show, there are several factors, which can affect the trade and financial openness and cannot be considered as exogenous variables. Considering trade and financial openness as endogenous variables and the factors influencing them, the impact of such variables on the ecological footprint index can be examined more precisely. On this basis, trade openness has positive and significant effect on ecological footprint index (negative effect on environment quality). On the other hand, according to shelter of pollution hypothesis financial openness variable has positive and significant effect on the ecological footprint index. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
205 - The Effect of State Fragility on Iranian Export to Southeast Asian Countries Using Spatial Econometric Approach
Shekoofe Nagheli majid maddah esmael AbounooriAbstract The major aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the state fragility index as institutions represent on Iranian export to Southeast Asian countries. For this purpose, the spatial econometric approach and the mixed regressive-spatial autoregressive mode MoreAbstract The major aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the state fragility index as institutions represent on Iranian export to Southeast Asian countries. For this purpose, the spatial econometric approach and the mixed regressive-spatial autoregressive model was used. Research pattern is a regression model with panel data from Iranian trade with Southeast Asian countries during 2000-2015. The results showed that the effect of the state fragility index variable on Iranian export to Southeast Asian countries is negative and significant. This means that promoting legitimacy and effectiveness in the social, political, and economic and security spheres have positive effect on increasing the export capacities of the country. According to the results, the hypothesis of spatial dependence in the model is confirmed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
206 - Effect of Gender Inequality on Economic Growth in Iran
This paper reviews the effect of human capital on economic growth in Iran in the period 1966-2006. With this regard to gender issues in human capital. For this field, gender inequality in employment and education is intended. This paper focus on this Question what affec MoreThis paper reviews the effect of human capital on economic growth in Iran in the period 1966-2006. With this regard to gender issues in human capital. For this field, gender inequality in employment and education is intended. This paper focus on this Question what affects this kind of inequality on economic growth in Iran. while check stationary variables and using method of Engel Grangers for persistent residual estimation of the model, the results were positive and significant impact of education on economic growth, in addition any increase of gender inequality in education and employment, reduction economic growth rate in Iran. In other words, increasing the average years of education women ratio will increase economic growth and increasing the employment ratio of women will increase economic growth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
207 - Geographical Aggregation of Industrial Activities and Productivity Growth: The Evidence from Iran's Provinces Manufacturing Industries
Morteza Sameti mahdi fathabadi Homayoun RanjbarThis paper investigates the impact of spatial aggregation of industrial activities on manufacturing industries productivity growth of Iran's provinces during 2004-2013, using cross-section data and dynamic pooled regression by Generalized Method of Moments (GM MoreThis paper investigates the impact of spatial aggregation of industrial activities on manufacturing industries productivity growth of Iran's provinces during 2004-2013, using cross-section data and dynamic pooled regression by Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). To measure industrial aggregation Ellison Glaeser (EG) index was used. The findings support the “Williamson hypothesis”, that is, aggregation of industrial activities has positive effect on productivity growth only up to a certain level of development. By improving infastructures and markets expand, congestion externalities vary in the development phases and it can result in more dispersion in economic activities. Namely, aggregation accumulates human and physical capital and this accelerates economic growth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
208 - A Systematic Analysis of the Effect of Civic Houses Real Expenditure Changes on the Share of New Automobile in Household Consumption Basket
parvaneh salatin azadmehr kahram maryam javadiThe effect of effective variables on the share of new automobile in household consumption basket has been considered and analyzed in this research during 1991-2007 by using Almost Ideal Demand System. Results of estimating seemingly unrelated regression represents that MoreThe effect of effective variables on the share of new automobile in household consumption basket has been considered and analyzed in this research during 1991-2007 by using Almost Ideal Demand System. Results of estimating seemingly unrelated regression represents that the real expenditure changes of household, household dimension and cost changes of other goods will affect this share. The study of expenditure elasticity and price elasticity estimation, respectively, shows the luxuriousness and elasticity of automobile in Iran economy. The results of automobile cross-price elasticity estimation by other groups explain that automobile is an alternate to three groups of food, non-food and housing, that is, the increase of automobile price will cause to increase the expenditure of household basket in all three groups share. More importantly is the point that the two groups of food and housing are the complements to automobile. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
209 - A Simple Model for Speculative Bubble in Tehran Housing Market
Habib Morovat Javid BahramiIn this paper, a simple model of a speculative housing market will be developed in which the demand for houses is influenced by expectations about future housing prices. Agents rely on extrapolative and regressive forecasting rules to form their expectations. The relati MoreIn this paper, a simple model of a speculative housing market will be developed in which the demand for houses is influenced by expectations about future housing prices. Agents rely on extrapolative and regressive forecasting rules to form their expectations. The relative importance of these competing views evolves over time, subject to market circumstances. It will be represented that the relative price elasticity of the demand of different views has important role in making speculative bubbles of Tehran housing market. The results indicate that the weight of agents by extrapolative demand (chartists) is more than 90% during last two decades. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
210 - Investigating the Rule-of-Thumb in Consumption by GMM Approach in Iran
reza roshan mosaieb pahlevani mohamadnabi shahiki tashThis paper reveals how many percent of Iranian households consume 100 percent of their current income or apply rule-of-thumb in consumption. To get the goal, Epstein-Zin utility function thereby will separate the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution and relative ri MoreThis paper reveals how many percent of Iranian households consume 100 percent of their current income or apply rule-of-thumb in consumption. To get the goal, Epstein-Zin utility function thereby will separate the elasticity of inter-temporal substitution and relative risk aversion. Then, the coefficient of rule-of-thumb in consumption will be estimated during 1980-2012 by using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Results indicate that about 26.5 percent of the Iranian households represent rule-of-thumb behavior, but the restact based on PIH and have inter-temporal consumption plan. Also, the coefficient of risk aversion for the consumption of Iranian households is about 8-22 percent. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
211 - Evaluation of Development Plan Execution on Fuel Programming and the Related Indices, Using DEA Method
Abstract As fuel is very important in the transport sector, schematization to reach the optimum situation in using fuel and optimize all affected factors is always critical. Various indices, including consumption, import, production, price, etc MoreAbstract As fuel is very important in the transport sector, schematization to reach the optimum situation in using fuel and optimize all affected factors is always critical. Various indices, including consumption, import, production, price, etc can be considered in measuring the success of each of the applied policies; however, as these indices can not be judged by their increase or decrease, the way to reach the optimum situation is not clear. In this paper, DEA method is applied to investigate both identical and different behaviors of gasoline indices in the second and third development plans during 1989-2005. Results indicate that the behavior of the main indices is different in each development plan; whereas, managing trade-off between some indices in each development plan would improve the performance to reach the perspective. Meantime, optimal points of all indices cover all the objectives and about 12 quintet and sextuplet indices are used as the best criteria to determine program success. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
212 - Reaction of European Industries Importing Iranian Oil to Energy Prices: Inter-factor analysis and Inter-fuel analysis
somayeh azami Kiumars Soheili marjan ghasemiAbstract The purpose of this study is evaluating European manufacturing Industries Importing Iranian Oil response to energy prices during 1970-2005. A two-stage translog model is used for estimating production factor and fuel demand elasticities. Results of inter-factor MoreAbstract The purpose of this study is evaluating European manufacturing Industries Importing Iranian Oil response to energy prices during 1970-2005. A two-stage translog model is used for estimating production factor and fuel demand elasticities. Results of inter-factor analysis show that in most of the countries, energy is inelastic input. Results of inter-fuel analysis show that natural gas is a good substitute for gasoil in European industries. With increasing price of electricity and natural gas, it is predicted that oil is a substitute for these energy carriers in most of countries. Demand elasticity for energy carriers (excluding gasoline) was low estimated. The results of this study have important implications for the industry energy suppliers and environmental policy makers. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
213 - Nonlinear Relationship between Per Capita Income and Insurance Penetration
esmaeil safarzadeh hoda jafariIn this paper, nonlinear relationship between insurance penetration and per-capita income will be studied. For this purpose, the researchers specified S-shaped Curve as two-factor logistic growth functions and estimated its parameters by MLE method using panel data of 7 MoreIn this paper, nonlinear relationship between insurance penetration and per-capita income will be studied. For this purpose, the researchers specified S-shaped Curve as two-factor logistic growth functions and estimated its parameters by MLE method using panel data of 70 countries during 2000-2011. The results of estimation indicate that there is a level of per-capita income approximately 18697 for life, 7492 for non-life insurance and 10392 for total industry in which the income elasticity of the demand for insurance reaches to the maximum, 1.63, 1.38 and 1.42 respectively. Also, the maximum and minimum of life, non-life and total industry penetrations will be 4.54, 2.9 and 7.44, and 0.75, 1.02 and 1.83 respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
214 - Performance Evaluation Health Houses of Firouzkouh City by Using Data Envelopment Analysis
N. shoja A. Gholamabri N. khaliliPerformance evaluation health houses of Firouzkouh City and consideration of their efficiency, is the main purpose of this study and it can help improving the efficiency of health houses and determining appropriate strategies and programs to advancement and develo MorePerformance evaluation health houses of Firouzkouh City and consideration of their efficiency, is the main purpose of this study and it can help improving the efficiency of health houses and determining appropriate strategies and programs to advancement and development of these goals. In this study, we have used the point of views of the experts and professors of operation article and we studied the previous investigations to evaluate the performance of health houses. So, we determined 2 important inputs and 3 outputs from March 2012 to March 2013. Then we evaluated their efficiency by CCR model and found that 5 heath houses among these 18 health houses obtained number 1 in efficiency houses . Finally we ranked the houses based on the efficiency by AP-CCR. Finding showed that Arjomand, Mozdaran, and Jeliz Jand health houses allocated to the first three points respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
215 - Surveying the Monetary Shocks Impact on the Income-Expenditure Relationship in the Iran's Government with the Approach of TVPFAVAR
jaber akbari sadegh bakhtiari morteza sameti homayoun ranjbarThe aim of this survey is surveying of monetary shocks on government income-expenditure in Iran by using variable parameters during time by considering seasonal data over the period 1988 to 2014. The results show that occurrence of any shock in liquidity, increase gover MoreThe aim of this survey is surveying of monetary shocks on government income-expenditure in Iran by using variable parameters during time by considering seasonal data over the period 1988 to 2014. The results show that occurrence of any shock in liquidity, increase government income and expenditures and occurrence of any shock in inflation and interest rates, reduce this relationship, but the shocks of inflation and interest rates, has weakened this relationship. Based on the results, it is suggested, to balancing the relationship of income - expenditure in the long term, the government should not focus on the tools of monetary policy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
216 - Factors, Affecting Current Account Deficit in Iran
The aim of this paper is to evaluate the factors, affecting current account deficit in Iran economy by applying Co-integration and Vector Error Correction approach during 1956-2006. Results indicate that real exchange rate, oil and gas exports, More The aim of this paper is to evaluate the factors, affecting current account deficit in Iran economy by applying Co-integration and Vector Error Correction approach during 1956-2006. Results indicate that real exchange rate, oil and gas exports, and terms of trade have positive impact, whilst government budget deficit has negative impact on current account balance. Oil price shocks have positive and statistical impact on current account balance. Also, the effect of exchange rate unification policy on current account balance is negative, but not significant. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
217 - Study of the Status and Role of Agriculture in Iran Business Cycles
seied abdolmajid jalaie asieh azizi nasibeh zarei hosein mehrabi basharabadiThe purpose of this paper is to extract the components of long-term business cycle trend and irregular impulses of real GDP, and also considering the status of agriculture in Iran business cycle. Real GDP is segregated by using Hodrick–Prescott filter and cyclical MoreThe purpose of this paper is to extract the components of long-term business cycle trend and irregular impulses of real GDP, and also considering the status of agriculture in Iran business cycle. Real GDP is segregated by using Hodrick–Prescott filter and cyclical feature of key variables influencing the business cycle will be analyzed and calculated. Then, by the use of VAR model and response function, the measure of business cycles shock is considered. The results of the business cycle represent that Iran economy has experienced five complete business rounds during 1971-1980. The results show agriculture has a positive and statistically significant impact on GDP gap in long-term. Also, the results of the cross-correlation coefficient indicate that agriculture sector has been a backward variable toward GDP gap during the years 1971-1980 and 1981-1989, but it has been a leading variable during 1990-2008. This indicates that agriculture sector is considered as a driving factor in business cycle during the third period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
218 - Contingent Valuation of Drinking Water: A Case Study
Abstract By using contingent valuation, this research examines people willing to pay in Polesefid of mazandaran province also, based on the estimation of Logit model we are going to determine factors such as income, ago, number of small children and level of education MoreAbstract By using contingent valuation, this research examines people willing to pay in Polesefid of mazandaran province also, based on the estimation of Logit model we are going to determine factors such as income, ago, number of small children and level of education affecting the willing to pay. The data are collected through a survey questionnaire and personal interviewing with 180 households in Polesefid. Also, according a pretest, the embedding effect is examined. Results indicate that 83 percent of households have a willing to pay for improving the quality of city water. In particular, average willing to pay for the save water is about 32000 Rials per household. Also by this research of the variables such as worrying about the quality of drinking water. Income and age have a positive and significant effect on the willing to pay. since, average values for willingness to pay in the pretest study is 32000 it seems that the embedding effect is minimum and the willing to pay has the minimum biased. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
219 - Comparative Studies of Fama & French and Reward Beta Models in Estimating Expected Stock Returns
In this article, two models of Reward Beta and Fama & French Three-Factor Model have been compared to estimate the expected returns in Tehran Stock Exchange. Results show Fama & French Three-Factors Model is mor More In this article, two models of Reward Beta and Fama & French Three-Factor Model have been compared to estimate the expected returns in Tehran Stock Exchange. Results show Fama & French Three-Factors Model is more effective than RBM; meantime, there is a direct relation between the size of the company and the expected returns, whereas the ratio of book value to market value has reverse relation with the expected returns. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
220 - The Effect of Financial Market Variables and Macroeconomic Variables on Exchange Rate Returns of Iran and major trading partners (1990 to 2015)
Reza Najarzade Lotfali Agheli Elham KhorasaniThe aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of financial and fundamental variables on exchange rate fluctuations for Iran and 11 countries of her major trading partners during 1990-2015 with General Method of Moments (GMM) approaach. The overall results suggest that MoreThe aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of financial and fundamental variables on exchange rate fluctuations for Iran and 11 countries of her major trading partners during 1990-2015 with General Method of Moments (GMM) approaach. The overall results suggest that stock index differentials, the interest rates differentials, net capital inflows, net bond inflows, budget deficit and the relative efficiency of non-tradable sector have a negative and significant impact on the exchange rate. However, the inflation rate differentials and the relative efficiency of tradable sector have a positive effect. Inflation, deficit and the relative efficiency of tradable sector showed to have the greatest impact on the exchange rate returns. Therefore, it is recommended to reduce the role of the government through the transfer of activities to the nongovernmental sector and less government intervention in the economy to reduce the adverse effects of the budget deficit on macroeconomic performance, to prevent a sharp increase in liquidity in the community, and to reduce the conversion of oil revenues to rials relative to Reducing inflation, and improving efficiency index, especially that of tradable sector to preserve the value of the national currency is helpful. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
221 - Evaluation of Home Bias in Consumption and Exchange Rate Fluctuations (DSGE Approach)
Mohammad Akbari mohammad javad sharifzade ali ranjbarakiThe aim of this study is to evaluate the result of the exsictance and change in consumer home bias on macroeconomic variables (such as consumption and inflation), in the event of exogenous shocks to the economy. In order to do so, seasonal data of the period 1394-1370 a MoreThe aim of this study is to evaluate the result of the exsictance and change in consumer home bias on macroeconomic variables (such as consumption and inflation), in the event of exogenous shocks to the economy. In order to do so, seasonal data of the period 1394-1370 and a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model has been used. After designing the model, parameters of the suggested model are estimated by Bayesian approach. Reviewing the impulse response functions in the event of exogenous shocks (such as oil revenue shock and technological shock) shows that, with home bias exsictance in the model, inflation and consumption volatility will reduced due to the increased volatility of exchange rate. Based on the results it is recommended that, In order to control endogenous variables (including inflation), In the event of exogenous shocks, especially oil revenue shock, the exchange rate should be allowed to fluctuate more. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
222 - The Influence of Volatility Structural Changes on Shock Transmission and Volatility Spillover between Gold and Stock Markets in Iran
zahra (mila) elmi esmaiel aboonouri saeed rasekhi mohamadmehdi shahraziThis study investigates the effect of volatility structural changes on the shock transmission and volatility Spillover between gold and stock markets in Iran during 2007-2013. For this purpose, firstly, we will detect the time periods of structural breaks in volatility MoreThis study investigates the effect of volatility structural changes on the shock transmission and volatility Spillover between gold and stock markets in Iran during 2007-2013. For this purpose, firstly, we will detect the time periods of structural breaks in volatility of gold and stock returns endogenously using the standard and modified iterated cumulated sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm. Then, this information incorporates to model the volatility process. The application of bi-variate GARCH model in off-diagonal BEKK parameterization suggest that shock transmission and volatility spillover between gold and stock markets is bidirectional in Iran. Also, based on the present research findings, ignoring or incorrect detection of structural breaks mislead the researcher about the direction of volatility transmission between gold and stock markets. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
223 - Estimation of Consumers’ Welfare Changes by Using True Cost of Living Index in Iran
Ali Akbar Khosravi nejad Ebrahim Siami AraghiThis paper introduce index numbers theory emphasis on economic approach and its applied welfare of consumer behavior. Price index number theory, product and welfare are one of the most important debate in economics while expand changes index numbers theory has been expe MoreThis paper introduce index numbers theory emphasis on economic approach and its applied welfare of consumer behavior. Price index number theory, product and welfare are one of the most important debate in economics while expand changes index numbers theory has been experienced in last three decades. These changes can be related to views differences of economists to index number theory. Some economists calculated welfare measurement and welfare changes with relating to demand system like Linear Expenditure System (LES) and Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). In this paper, True Cost of living Index is estimated by using AIDS. The Results indicate that the Cost of Living Index in rural area is larger than urban during 1997-2007. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
224 - Investigating the effects of Education structure on the income Distribution
In this paper, the effects of education structure on the distribution of income are going to be explained during 1968 – 2007 in Iran. In order to achieve the end, the writers try to represent the effects of education on t More In this paper, the effects of education structure on the distribution of income are going to be explained during 1968 – 2007 in Iran. In order to achieve the end, the writers try to represent the effects of education on the income in equality, the effects of different levels of education, the impact of private and public education and the difference of education effects between men and women. The findings represent that the more the level of education, the less the inequality of income. Public education reduces the income inequality more than the private education and woman education decrease the inequality more than men. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
225 - Effect of Trade Specialization Pattern on Economic Growth in MENA Countries
homayoun ranjbar mahdieh iranmanesh morteza mohammadiThis article investigates the pattern of trade specialization and productivity of exports on economic growth in MENA countries during 2009-2001 using generalized method of moments discussed. The results showed that there is a positive effect on exports and productivity MoreThis article investigates the pattern of trade specialization and productivity of exports on economic growth in MENA countries during 2009-2001 using generalized method of moments discussed. The results showed that there is a positive effect on exports and productivity indicators and the negative effect of exports on economic growth indicators heterogeneity between industrial, commercial and trade on economic growth. Among the indicators, only the effect of concentration of exports on economic growth is consistent with the theory that the cause of its extreme dependence on oil economies is of MENA region. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
226 - Factors Affecting Agricultural Exports in ECO Countries
Hamed Najafi Alamdarloo seyed Abolghasem Mortazavi Katayun ShemshadiAgriculture is an important part of the economy having a significant role in exports of any country. On the other hand, the economic integration leads to the increase of trading and income of member states. In this paper, the fact MoreAgriculture is an important part of the economy having a significant role in exports of any country. On the other hand, the economic integration leads to the increase of trading and income of member states. In this paper, the factors affecting agricultural exports in ECO countries will be studied by using Panel Approach during 1992-2010. The findings present that Export Price Index, GDP and exchange rates have a positive effect and exchange rate fluctuations and population have a negative effect on agricultural exports. So, it is recommended that, for improving agricultural exports, GDP and exchange rate should be increased. In addition, by decreasing the fluctuation in exchange rate, the negative effects will be controlled. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
227 - Impact of Wealth on the Consumption of Private Sector in Iran
Sara Emamgholipour LotfAli AgheliIn this paper, the effect of financial wealth on private sector consumption is tested. The estimation of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model by using quarterly data during 1996Q1-2010Q4 represents that the marginal propensity to consume out of disposable incom MoreIn this paper, the effect of financial wealth on private sector consumption is tested. The estimation of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model by using quarterly data during 1996Q1-2010Q4 represents that the marginal propensity to consume out of disposable income is 0.361 and 0.686 in the short and long-term respectively, and it will be 0.261 and 0.497 respectively when consuming financial wealth. In addition, Error Correction Model (ECM) explains moderate adjustment of short-term imbalances with a factor of -0.525. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
228 - Assessing the Structure of Bank Deposits Market in Iran
mohammad nabi shahiki tash kamran mahmoodpourAbstract The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the structure of banking structure in Iran and assess the monopoly power factor based on Bresnahan and Lau approach. In this paper, the market situation of monetary in Iran consisted 18 active banks are studied dur MoreAbstract The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the structure of banking structure in Iran and assess the monopoly power factor based on Bresnahan and Lau approach. In this paper, the market situation of monetary in Iran consisted 18 active banks are studied during 2007–2011. By the use of Bresnahan's market power model, it is found that there is no deposit market for pre-said banks in Iranian banking industry. The coefficients estimated by the research model have represented that the hypothesis of perfect competition without any withholding rates and deposit rates can be rejected for the entire market. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
229 - Effective Factors on Absorbing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in MENA Region
Sanaz Khatabi Akbar Komijani Teymour Mohamadi Abbas MemarneJadAbstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effective factors associated with FDI inflows to MENA region (11 selected countries in Middle East and North Africa). The two-stage least squared pooling method was used for selected MENA countries to a MoreAbstract The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effective factors associated with FDI inflows to MENA region (11 selected countries in Middle East and North Africa). The two-stage least squared pooling method was used for selected MENA countries to analyze the data for 2002-2014. Based on the results of analysis, positive effect of economic growth, rate of inflation, and market openness and a negative effect of good governance on foreign direct investment obtained. The results, also, showed that countries with fixed exchange rate regime were more successful in attracting FDI inflows. Based on the findings of this study, and to attract FDI inflows, MENA member countries should implement policies aimed at, improving public’s perceptions of governance, decreasing the inflation, increasing economic growth, creating stable foreign exchange rate regimes, and increasing trade openness. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
230 - Public Investment in the Transportation Sector and Economic Growth in Iran (1970-2008)
Transportation sector is an important Part of the production and consumption cycle. The expansion of Transportation increases the activity of the labor and capital and creates positive externalities for other economic sectors. Therefore, it has an important role in the MoreTransportation sector is an important Part of the production and consumption cycle. The expansion of Transportation increases the activity of the labor and capital and creates positive externalities for other economic sectors. Therefore, it has an important role in the process of economic growth. This paper investigates the effect of government investment in the transportation sector on economic growth during 1973-2009 in Iran. For this purpose, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model will be developed. Our findings show that, in short term., the investment in transportation has a significant positive effect on GDP. In long run, GDP elasticity to public investment in transportation is a significant positive value equal to 0.08. Then, by the positive effects mentioned above, we recommend more and more governmental investment in this sector. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
231 - Comparing the Performance of ARIMA and MS-AR Models to Forecast Business Cycles in Iran
Mehdi Fazel Akbar Tavakoli Mostafa RajabiIt is clear that business cycles are inevitable in economy. On the other hand, the economists are always looking for how to form business cycles and so under the effect of economic policies, since the economic situation is depended to these policies. Therefore, the acce MoreIt is clear that business cycles are inevitable in economy. On the other hand, the economists are always looking for how to form business cycles and so under the effect of economic policies, since the economic situation is depended to these policies. Therefore, the access to more precise business cycles forecasting methods would direct and manage the economic situation and policies powerfully. Hence, the main objective of this study is to construct a new model based on Markov-Switching Autoregressive (MS-AR) model to forecast the business cycles in Iran. In addition, the model constructed is compared to ARIMA to represent its power. GDP data seasonally covers the period 1989: I – 2009: IV collected from Central Bank of Iran. MS-AR and ARIMA models are applied to forecast the behavior of business cycles. By using MAPE, RMSE and Theil criteria (TIC), the results indicate that MS-AR model will work better than ARIMA to forecast GDP business cycles. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
232 - The Effect of Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and International Business on Greenhouse Gas Emission in Iran
taghi torabi Amin khajooeipour samaneh tarighi mohammadreza pakravanAbstract Nowadays the people all over the world are increasingly worried about the emission of greenhouse gas and the environmental changes resulted. Since Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the main source of pollution and emission of greenhouse gas, this paper is to study the r MoreAbstract Nowadays the people all over the world are increasingly worried about the emission of greenhouse gas and the environmental changes resulted. Since Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the main source of pollution and emission of greenhouse gas, this paper is to study the relationship between the emission of this gas caused by energy consumption, economic growth and international trading in Iran during 1971-2011 based on environmental biology Kuznets Curve in practice. So, auto-distribution method with vast stops is used. The results represent that the use of energy, real gross national production per person and the rate of economy openness has a positive and significant effect on the emission of CO2. Furthermore, for the acceleration of short-term dividend pattern adjustment toward long-term balancing, error correction pattern is used. The coefficient estimated for ECM is -0.49 representing that imbalance of CO2 emission can be adjusted after two years by changing the level of energy consumption, national gross production and the rate of economy openness. By considering the increase of CO2 emission in Iran, it is necessary to make new environmental policies to decrease environmental destruction. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
233 - Threshold Effect of Oil Prices on Bilateral Trade Balances in Iran: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model (PSTR)
kiumars shahbazi ghomri karimiThis paper investigates the threshold effect of oil prices on bilateral trade balances in Iran and 14 main trading countries during 1992 - 2010 by using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. oil prices is selected as the variable of transition. The empirica MoreThis paper investigates the threshold effect of oil prices on bilateral trade balances in Iran and 14 main trading countries during 1992 - 2010 by using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. oil prices is selected as the variable of transition. The empirical results indicate a strong nonlinear relationship between the trade balance and dependent variables. The threshold value and transition parameter are -0.44 and 12.99 representing the average adjustment speed. Moreover, it is sufficient to consider one transition function by one threshold to estimate a nonlinear model. In the first regime, oil prices have a positive impact on the trade balance. This effect becomes negative when passing from the threshold value and in the second regime. The results suggest that by high levels of oil prices, the increases have a negative impact on bilateral trade balances indicating that the dependence of economy on oil should be reduced. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
234 - Designing a Dynamic Model for Iranian Tourism Industry Horizon in 2025 by Using System Dynamics Approach
Ali Hsein Samadi Ali Naghi Mosleh shirazi Anahita RoohiBy using SD approach in this study, we have developed a dynamic model for the future of Iranian tourism industry and simulated it during 2007-2025. Besides, to understand the dynamics involved, the purpose of this study is to forecast the industry’s future and to MoreBy using SD approach in this study, we have developed a dynamic model for the future of Iranian tourism industry and simulated it during 2007-2025. Besides, to understand the dynamics involved, the purpose of this study is to forecast the industry’s future and to observe the requirements to get the objectives in the horizon of 2025. The model designed includes three main sub-systems, namely; the demand for tourism, tourism activities, and tourism capacity building. By Vensim software, the simulation results of the model explain that, if the current rates of capacity development, advertisements, and human resource development activities continue in this industry, then, we will absorb only a demand about 5.5 million tourists in 2025, that is, well below the standard of 20 million tourists per year in the horizon of 2025. The results of the simulation reveal that, to reach the tourism objectives planned, firstly, 3 sub-systems mentioned above must be coordinated and worked well together, and secondly, some prompt actions should be planned to boost the effectiveness of advertisement, the training of workforce in this regard. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
235 - The Demand for Away from Home Food in Iranian Households: An Application of Box-Cox Double Hurdle Model
hasan farazmand hamidreza hallafiAbstract Inspired by Becker’s model (1965) and Double-Hurdle pattern by the transformation of Box-Cox and also using the statistical data related to the income and expenses of the urban and rural households in Iran during the year 2012, the most important economi MoreAbstract Inspired by Becker’s model (1965) and Double-Hurdle pattern by the transformation of Box-Cox and also using the statistical data related to the income and expenses of the urban and rural households in Iran during the year 2012, the most important economic and demographic reasons affecting the probable participation and amount of consumption of food away from home has been identified and then the elasticities related to the probable participation and conditional and unconditional consumptions been calculated. The elasticities resulting from estimating the maximum likelihood function of the research under the study indicates that the results of the explanatory factors on the probable participation and the expenses pertaining to the food away from home are sometimes favorable and sometimes contradictory and contrastive. The families themselves and their educational level respectively have a negative and positive favorable effect on the consumption of food away from home. The average age factor of the household has negative elasticity on the probable participation and positive elasticity on costs. So, it has a contrasting effect on the consumption of food away from home. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
236 - Studying Recessions and Booms in Iran Economy by Using Markov Switching Model
Morteza Salehi Sarbijan gholam ali Reisi Nader Shetab BooshehriIn this paper, by using the nonlinear model of Hamilton Markov switching, the possible features of circular pattern are considered in Iran by a seasonally adjusted real GDP during 1988-2008. The results represent that business cycles extracted from Markov switching meth MoreIn this paper, by using the nonlinear model of Hamilton Markov switching, the possible features of circular pattern are considered in Iran by a seasonally adjusted real GDP during 1988-2008. The results represent that business cycles extracted from Markov switching method are more appropriate than the linear model and the growth rate of GDP divided into three regimes by the average of negative, mildly positive and high positive growth as 3.92, 4.43 and 9.53 respectively. Iran economy experienced, during the above period, 7 seasons of recession, 10 seasons of mild growth and 58 seasons of high growth. Furthermore, the probability of stability in recession, moderate, and high growth are estimated 0.3, 0.92 and 0.5 percent respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
237 - Use of Black Market premium (BMP) to Investigate the Changes of Exchange Rate on the Added-value of Industry
hamidreza izadi maryam izadiInstability of exchange actual rate increases the risk and uncertainty, decrease of investment, shortening of investment horizon, instability of financial markets, reduction of foreign trade, allocation of the resources to the non-productive activities, reduction of ind MoreInstability of exchange actual rate increases the risk and uncertainty, decrease of investment, shortening of investment horizon, instability of financial markets, reduction of foreign trade, allocation of the resources to the non-productive activities, reduction of industry added value and the growth of production rate and economy. By using Black Market Premium, this paper tries to evaluate the exchange rate fluctuations and its deviations during 1971-2010 due to the importance of the exchange rate variations, and then survey the negative effects of these fluctuations and deviations on the surplus value of industry. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
238 - Inter-fuel Substitution in OECD and its Effects on the Fluctuations of Iran's Petroleum Exports
teymoor mohammadi hamid amadeh fereidoon barkashli dariush vafinajarIn this paper, based on the importance of Inter-fuel substitution, the researcher try to study the changes in Inter-fuel substitution in OECD and then to answer the question that "whether it has any effect on the fluctuation of Iran's petroleum exports in this market or MoreIn this paper, based on the importance of Inter-fuel substitution, the researcher try to study the changes in Inter-fuel substitution in OECD and then to answer the question that "whether it has any effect on the fluctuation of Iran's petroleum exports in this market or not?" By using Linear Dynamic Logit model based on the equations of fuel and SURE to investigate inter-fuel substitution through four fuels including oil, gas, coal and electricity represent that the electricity and gas is the most intensive in short and long-term alternative to oil. The estimation of this system as simultaneous to MSI model for Iran's oil exports in OECD market indicate that these substitutions affect the fluctuations of Iranian petroleum exports. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
239 - Redefinition of the Relation between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Iran: Markov Switching Approach
A. M. Mozayani A. Esari Arani B. Afsharian A. RasouliAbstract The purpose of this study is finding the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the industry and transport sector in developed and developing provinces in Iran through Markov switching model during 2000-2010. The results indicate a posi MoreAbstract The purpose of this study is finding the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in the industry and transport sector in developed and developing provinces in Iran through Markov switching model during 2000-2010. The results indicate a positive effect of energy consumption growth on value added growth in industry and transportation both in developed and developing provinces. But, the positive effect of energy consumption will be increased by moving from recession to economic boom phrase. The results imply that the relation between energy consumption and economic growth in transportation sector is more than industry and there is an asymmetric relation between energy consumption and economic growth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
240 - Forecasting Iranian Non-oil Exports: Regression Models and Artificial Neural Network
Expanding non-oil exports for diversifying exchange revenues and reducing oil income instability effects on Iran’s economic growth has been one of the main strategies in foreign trade for recent years from the viewpoint of planners and policy makers. Present study MoreExpanding non-oil exports for diversifying exchange revenues and reducing oil income instability effects on Iran’s economic growth has been one of the main strategies in foreign trade for recent years from the viewpoint of planners and policy makers. Present study applies ANN and SARIMA to forecast Iranian non-oil exports. For accomplishing this, monthly time series data of non-oil exports value during 2000-2009 are used. In order to predict this, the performances of two mentioned approaches are compared by using ME, RMSE, MAE, MPE and MAPE criteria. MAPE is calculated at 0.44 for ANN representing ANN forecasts are more precise than SARIMA ones. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
241 - The Effect of Mark-up Shocks on Intensification of Stagflation in Iran’s Economy: DSGE Approach
Teymour Mohammadi abbas shakeri Masoume EmamikalaeeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of existence of mark-up shocks, which is a criterion for monopolistic structure of industries on intensification of stagflation phenomenon in Iran’s economy. For this purpose, it has been utilized by the metho MoreThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of existence of mark-up shocks, which is a criterion for monopolistic structure of industries on intensification of stagflation phenomenon in Iran’s economy. For this purpose, it has been utilized by the methodology of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium during the period of 1959-2014. The findings showed that mark-up shock increases price and decreases production which shows the existence of stagflation. Meanwhile, the mark-up shock will instantly decrease consumption and investment. As a result, mark-up shock does not have a positive effect on the economy as it tend to produce stagflation. Based on the results, it is possible that by consideration anti-monopoly laws it can be prevented increasing the mark-up. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
242 - Optimal Economic Model of Cultivation to Reduce the Impacts of Environmental Pollution in Mazandaran Province
Majid Ghorbani Abolfazl Mahmoudi mohsen shookat fadaei Mohammad KhalediThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the position of rapeseed and soybean oils in optimal cultivation pattern of Mazandaran province in two social and market conditions. For this purpose, the calibrated linear programming model has been used to reduce environment MoreThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the position of rapeseed and soybean oils in optimal cultivation pattern of Mazandaran province in two social and market conditions. For this purpose, the calibrated linear programming model has been used to reduce environmental pollution based on data from the year 1396-97. The results of the market model showed that the use of water, machinery and capital for production of crops in the province, in particular, oilseeds were more than needed and the same amounts of production could be obtained by using smaller amounts of these inputs. Gained. Also, given the limitations and available resources, soybean cultivation should be reduced by 45% and canola cultivation by 18% to achieve the optimal model. The results of the social model showed that the production of oilseeds in the province would only be possible with government support for the agricultural sector. The results suggest that instead of focusing on subsidies for fertilizers and chemical pesticides, other areas such as technical knowledge promotion, insurance, warehousing, transportation, commodity exchange, standardization, export, package Classify and grade these supports. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
243 - Relation Between Electricity Consumption and Economical Growth in Selected Exporting Oil Countries
mohsen mehrara razieh farmahini farahani Ayat hasanzadehThe purpose of this study is to estimate the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption growth in the selected oil exporting countries during 1972-2008 using both country time series and panel data. The empirical results based on panel data indicat MoreThe purpose of this study is to estimate the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption growth in the selected oil exporting countries during 1972-2008 using both country time series and panel data. The empirical results based on panel data indicated that there is a mono-directional short-run causality running from electricity consumption growth to economic growth and a bi-directional long-run causality between electricity consumption growth and economic growth. The findings implied that economic growth in the selected exporting oil countries is highly depended to the electricity energy, and thus, electricity conservation policies will have a reverse effect on their economic growth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
244 - Bayesian Analysis of Spatial Probit Models for Investigating the Adoption of High Yielding Wheat Varieties
Anahita Nazari Gooran Vali BorimnejadThe aim of this study, firstly, is to investigate and identify the factors leading to the adoption of high yielding wheat varieties grown by farmers. Secondly, it is to consider the impacts of neighborhood on farmers’ decisions about adoption of wheat varieties as MoreThe aim of this study, firstly, is to investigate and identify the factors leading to the adoption of high yielding wheat varieties grown by farmers. Secondly, it is to consider the impacts of neighborhood on farmers’ decisions about adoption of wheat varieties as spatial data. For this purpose, Spatial Probit Discrete Choice model and Bayesian method will be used to estimate the model by using MATLAB software. The data are collected by 214 farmers in central part of Qazvin city via Simple Random Sampling. The results of the models estimated by using Bayesian method shows that adoption of high yielding wheat varieties are affected by variables such as rural production cooperatives, farming experience, age, quantity of wheat production and Spatial Autoregressive Coefficient. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
245 - The Effect of Banking Facilities on Macroeconomic Variables of Agriculture
zarir negintaji mehdi omidi kiaCapital plays an important role in increasing the productivity of economic sectors like agriculture. Due to the limitations of financial and capital markets in Iran, banking resources are one of the most important factors to provide capital in the agricultural sector. T MoreCapital plays an important role in increasing the productivity of economic sectors like agriculture. Due to the limitations of financial and capital markets in Iran, banking resources are one of the most important factors to provide capital in the agricultural sector. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the banking facilities including fixed and working capital on macroeconomic variables of agriculture during 1973-2010. To achieve the goal, 3-Stage Least Squares (3SLS) method is used. The Results represent that banks facilities have positive and significant effects on the value added, investment and employment in agriculture sector. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
246 - Parametric Estimation of Lerner Index and Evaluation of Competition and Monopoly Rate in Iran Industries
M.N. Shahiki Tash A. NorouziIn this study, the aim is to investigate the rate of competition and monopoly in the manufacturing industries during 1996-2008 by using non-structural model and Lerner index based on parametric approach. The results indicate that the value of concentration index of the MoreIn this study, the aim is to investigate the rate of competition and monopoly in the manufacturing industries during 1996-2008 by using non-structural model and Lerner index based on parametric approach. The results indicate that the value of concentration index of the most of industries varies between 0.30 to 0.50 implying effective monopoly structure and the gap between price and marginal cost. Also, "Manufacture of coke" and "Manufacture of motor vehicles" by Lerner index of 0.62 and 0.25 have highest and lowest monopoly degree, respectively. Assessment of the trend of industry's Lerner index represents the improvement of the competition conditions the period while the gap between the price and marginal cost is at a relatively high level. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
247 - Modeling Equity Premium Puzzle by Using Fuzzy Logic: A Number of Evidences from Iran
Alireza Erfani Solmaz SafariThis paper is intended to study the equity premium puzzle in basis of Consumption Capital Asset Pricing model in the period 1371-1393 in Iran seasonally. The results confirm the puzzle in the period. Consequently the paper introduces and proposes an experimental and the MoreThis paper is intended to study the equity premium puzzle in basis of Consumption Capital Asset Pricing model in the period 1371-1393 in Iran seasonally. The results confirm the puzzle in the period. Consequently the paper introduces and proposes an experimental and theoretical model to explain equity premium through Consumption Capital Asset Pricing model in habits formation model and combination of financial and economy regimes by Fuzzy Logic. Results derived from proposed model showed that equity premium and risk aversion have a counter- cyclical relation with economic regimes; so that in recession regime and reducing market, consumption news increase relative risk aversion and equity premium. In this regime, the individual prefers to adventure only in lieu of high level of compensation and he or she also intends to allocate the funds into more certain fields such as bank deposits. While consumption news in the period of boom in economy and increasing market, decrease risk aversion and equity premium. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
248 - The Impact of Tax Ratio on the Tourism Receipts in MENA Countries (Dynamic Panel Data Approach)
majid feshari Ali Akbar Taghipour mojtaba valibeigi nayer ghamariThe impact of tax ratio on the investment, in economic activity such as tourism sector, is important in tourism literature. So, the main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of tax ratio on the tourism receipts in MENA countries during 1995-2009.The mode MoreThe impact of tax ratio on the investment, in economic activity such as tourism sector, is important in tourism literature. So, the main objective of this study is to investigate the impact of tax ratio on the tourism receipts in MENA countries during 1995-2009.The model of study has been estimated by applying dynamic panel data approach and GMM estimator. The empirical results of study reveal that tax ratio has negative effect on the tourism receipts and GDP per capita and its growth have positive and significant effect on the tourism receipts in such countries. Hence, the main policy implication of this study is that the policy makers, in these countries, should adopt these policies to improve the tax revenue. Because, any increase of tax revenues can decrease the dependency to the tourism receipts. Moreover, the increase of GDP and GDP per capita can improve the tourism receipts in MENA countries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
249 - Calculating the Sustainable Supply Chain Performance in the Cement Industry (Application of Network Data Envelopment Analysis Model)
mohammad hossein darvish motevally farhad hosseinzadeh lotfi نقی شجاع Amir Gholam AbriThe purpose of this paper is to present an appropriate model of data envelopment analysis with a network structure for evaluating the sustainability of the supply chain of cement companies present in the Iranian Stock Exchange during 2014-2015 and determine their produc MoreThe purpose of this paper is to present an appropriate model of data envelopment analysis with a network structure for evaluating the sustainability of the supply chain of cement companies present in the Iranian Stock Exchange during 2014-2015 and determine their productivity based on the Malmquist index. This model attempts to introduce sustainability criteria in the supply network with regard to quantitative and qualitative constraints as well as undesirable outputs and Through their measure of supply chain, results are more consistent with reality. Overall, the results indicate a decline in the total productivity of these companies; meanwhile, only 7 companies have maintained their performance and other companies have had a performance fluctuation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
250 - The Study of Inflation Main determinants by Emphasizing on Government Size
This paper is an effort to find an adaptable model to investigate about the presence or absence of significant relation between inflation and the size of government in Iran. To study the long-run relationship between inflation and the factors affecting it by emphasizing MoreThis paper is an effort to find an adaptable model to investigate about the presence or absence of significant relation between inflation and the size of government in Iran. To study the long-run relationship between inflation and the factors affecting it by emphasizing the size of government during 1974-2006, an auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) will be used.The findings indicate that the import price index, liquidity and real interest rate are effective factors on inflation in Iran and there is a negative but significant relationship between inflation and the size of government in Iranian economy. Based upon the results, the government protective and supervisional roles is necessary to control the inflation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
251 - Relationship between Saving and Wealth (By Emphasizing the Housing Values) in Iran Provinces
In this study, factors affecting savings in Iran,s economy will be recognized by emphasizing the value of housing wealth in the provinces of the country. To represent that the data elements between twenty-eight provinces in 2001-2006 is used and a suitable model for is MoreIn this study, factors affecting savings in Iran,s economy will be recognized by emphasizing the value of housing wealth in the provinces of the country. To represent that the data elements between twenty-eight provinces in 2001-2006 is used and a suitable model for is estimated panel data. Model results show that the estimated income (GDP) on savings (bank deposit account balance) had a significant positive effect and unemployment and the housing index are negatively related to changes in the value of total savings in the provinces shows. Thus, changes in the total value of provincial housing (replace wealth variable) affect the amount of savings and life cycle theory and confirm the value of reverse wealth effect on saving shows. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
252 - A Mathematical Model to Assign Optimal Site for Social Insurance Organization in East of Tehran
Alireza Rashidi Komijan Amirhoshang KhamseThis paper tries to develop a mathematical model to assign an optimal site for Insurance Organization branches in eastern part of Tehran by using the data of Social Insurances Organization. So, designing and developing service network and determining a proper site to se MoreThis paper tries to develop a mathematical model to assign an optimal site for Insurance Organization branches in eastern part of Tehran by using the data of Social Insurances Organization. So, designing and developing service network and determining a proper site to set up the centers of services is a vital issue. Factors affecting the location include land price, ensured population, closeness to the parking, organizations, clinics, banks, underground-station, bus-station, highways. By using questionnaire and performing pair-wise comparisons of the determinants and then analyzing the data collected by Eigenvector method, the effectiveness coefficients of each determinant will be determined. Numerical results of MADM model will be inserted in the second objective function defined as 0 and 1 that means the organization branch in that location must set up or not. Finally, the model will be solved by Excel and a proper location determined for setting up the branches. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
253 - Components Incompatibility, A Way for Monopolization in Services
kiumars shahbazi jalil badpeymaThe purpose of this article is to achieve the compatibility equilibrium of components. For this purpose, the components compatibility was investigated in the production equipment producers. In this research, a game has been designed in three stages with considerin MoreThe purpose of this article is to achieve the compatibility equilibrium of components. For this purpose, the components compatibility was investigated in the production equipment producers. In this research, a game has been designed in three stages with considering the available alternatives for equipment producers and service providers, in which the firms decide about compatibility before price competition in selling stages and providing services. Then, by means of static games solution with imperfect information, the game equilibrium has been exploited. The modeling results showed that the component incompatibility is the game equilibrium and the firms with monopolization incentives in providing the after sale services, produce own provided outputs under an incompatible situation. Based on results, is suggested the production equipment byers, if possible before purchase, evaluate the rate of breakdown of production equipment, and also, concurrent with purchasing the system, buy the spare parts. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
254 - The Role of Tendency of Government Preference in an Optimal Fiscal Policy Model in the Presence of Agent Heterogeneity in A dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Framework
hamidreza izadiAbstract This paper examines an optimal fiscal policy model in the presence of agents heterogeneous in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Therefore, the presence of heterogeneous agents in the model led MoreAbstract This paper examines an optimal fiscal policy model in the presence of agents heterogeneous in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Therefore, the presence of heterogeneous agents in the model led to create limitation that will be call government preference. The role of these preferences and tendency of the Government to the poor or the rich group can change the results of optimal policies on the economy. By using a dynamic stochastic general model, the role of government preferences tendency was been surveyed. The results indicate that in these models, the role of government expenditure financing through available taxes in the policymaking system, is partly dependent on the government preferences tendency. On the bases of the results, it is suggested that separating the government preferences and tendency in relation to the poor and the rich. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
255 - Determining the Optimal Interest Rate and Its Effects on Iran's Economy: An Application of Optimal Control Theories
yazdan Naghdi Farshid Efati BaranAbstract The aim of this study is to estimate and calculate the optimal interest rate during the period 1993-2016 in order to achieve an optimal interest rate and a describe economic growth using the optimal control theory. Taking into account Iran’s economic, s MoreAbstract The aim of this study is to estimate and calculate the optimal interest rate during the period 1993-2016 in order to achieve an optimal interest rate and a describe economic growth using the optimal control theory. Taking into account Iran’s economic, social and cultural planning, its economic growth rate is considered 6%, and the inflation targeting 10% in the present research. The results show that in order to achieve the describe economic growth rate of 6% in a year and the inflation targeting rate of 10%, the optimal interest rate needs to be 5.2%. By notice that the bank average interest rate for Iran has been 14.3% in the same period, it is suggested that bank interest rate decreases. This matter will increase investment and ultimately expand production and economic growth in the Iranian economy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
256 - The Impact of Provincial Budget Gap on Regional Income Disparity of Iran’s Provinces by Using PVAR Model
Hadi Rahmani Fazli Abbas Arab MazarThis paper attempts to investigate the relationship among provincial construction and total budget gap with per capita income disparity as a regional inequality index among the nation provinces during 2006 - 2011 periods by using panel vector autoregressive approach. Ba MoreThis paper attempts to investigate the relationship among provincial construction and total budget gap with per capita income disparity as a regional inequality index among the nation provinces during 2006 - 2011 periods by using panel vector autoregressive approach. Based on the panel co-integration test there is a long run significant relationship among provincial income per capita disparity with provincial construction and total budget gap. Estimation results of PVAR model and analysis of impulse responses functions show that the budget gap shock has a positive impact on income per capita disparity and justifying the shock effect on income per capita lasts about six periods. The variance decomposition results of the shocks showed that the total and construction budget gap explain a considerable part of provincial income per capita disparity variation. The results emphasis on necessary to reduction gap in budget allocation to the nation provinces. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
257 - Environmental Assessment of Economic Activity by Using I-O Table (Yazd)
zahra nasrolahi shahram vasfi esfastani somayeh norizadehThe experiences of developed countries represent that economic development emphasizing on the irregular use of environment would make serious problems on sustainable development. Economic activities are accompanied with the increase of energy consumption and emissions o MoreThe experiences of developed countries represent that economic development emphasizing on the irregular use of environment would make serious problems on sustainable development. Economic activities are accompanied with the increase of energy consumption and emissions of greenhouse gas. By considering the importance of Economic activities in developing countries, the relationship between economic activities and pollution will be so important. Therefore, the aim of this study is to examine the linkage between Economic activities and air pollution using input-output table in Yazd province. Yazd province had 1.3% of total value added in 2006. The results show that the sectors by the highest pollution are basic metal production (40%) and transportation (35%). Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
258 - Comparison of Iran's Medicinal Plants Exporting Comparative Advantage With other Exporting Countries (Case study: Fennel, Badian, Anise and Corian)
shahriar Nessabian Tahereh gholamhoseini Farkhodeh Jebel AmeliThis article investigate the export comparative advantage of Iran and the 11 major exporters using the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index from 1995 - 2008. The values of the index were calculated by the data derived from the Food and Agriculture Organ MoreThis article investigate the export comparative advantage of Iran and the 11 major exporters using the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index from 1995 - 2008. The values of the index were calculated by the data derived from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) website. According to the results, Syria, Iran, India, Turkey, Singapore, Egypt, Morocco, Bulgaria and Vietnam have comparative advantage and Canada and Germany don’t advantage. Also, China has export comparative advantage in some years. Although Iran has a comparative advantage in the export of selected medicinal plants, but its export competitiveness trend is declining. On the other hand, the analysis of Iran's competitive position in the export comparative advantage of selected medicinal plants compared to the other top exporting countries represents the demotion of the position from the third to the sixth in the world. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
259 - Multi-Dimensional Approach to Subjective Well-Being: A Case Study: Ilam University Staff
bagher darvishi mehdi omidi fereshteh esmatThe purpose of the paper is surveying multi-dimensional approach to subjective well-bein.by using Van Praag, et al (2003) model. Therefore, satisfaction from life has been modeled as a function of satisfactions in finance, job, health, habitation, leisure, and living en MoreThe purpose of the paper is surveying multi-dimensional approach to subjective well-bein.by using Van Praag, et al (2003) model. Therefore, satisfaction from life has been modeled as a function of satisfactions in finance, job, health, habitation, leisure, and living environment and by COLS method, on the base of data from the questionnaire for a sample including 180 individuals of Ilam university’s faculty members and staff was estimated. The results show that satisfaction with life as a whole for the staff is also a function of finance, health and living environment satisfaction, while it is only a function of financial satisfaction for the faculty members. The results, also, suggest that in various life aspects, lack of satisfaction with life cannot be explained solely by income components. So, it is suggests to protective institutes that prohibit to solely welfare plans and instead of them, provide more comprehensive protective packages. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
260 - Fiscal Policies and Income Distribution in Iran: FAVAR Approach
seyed kamal sadeghi mohammad bagher beheshti Reza ranjpour saeed ebrahimiThe aim of this paper is to examine the impact of government fiscal policies on income distribution. For this purpose FAVAR method and quarterly data for the time period of 1393:q4-1369:q1 for 99 macroeconomic variables have been used. Impulse response functions show th MoreThe aim of this paper is to examine the impact of government fiscal policies on income distribution. For this purpose FAVAR method and quarterly data for the time period of 1393:q4-1369:q1 for 99 macroeconomic variables have been used. Impulse response functions show that a positive shock as size one standard deviation in government current expenditure, increases Gini coefficient and as result worsens income distribution. While, government development expenditure as well as direct and indirect taxes shocks reduce Gini coefficient and improve income distribution. According to the Findings, the government can reduce income inequality by reducing unproductive costs, increasing targeted development spending and improving tax system. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
261 - Effective Factors on Iran’s Export to Eurasian Economic Union
Mansour AsgariWhile the country's development requires the growth of exports, taking into account the trend of globalization, this process entails outward looking economic approach in which preferential trade agreement is essential. On the other hand, the assessment of the effects of MoreWhile the country's development requires the growth of exports, taking into account the trend of globalization, this process entails outward looking economic approach in which preferential trade agreement is essential. On the other hand, the assessment of the effects of preferential trade agreements of Iran with trade partners is important as well. Therefore, this paper analyzes the effects of establishing a preferential trade agreement of Iran with Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This paper, using the gravity model with the panel data approach, the 2007-2016 data and generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator, evaluated the effects of this agreement. The results show that the variables of GDP size, economic similarities, the difference between the exporter's, importer's income level and real exchange rate, have a positive effect on Iran’s export. It is estimated that by establishment of a preferential trade agreement between Iran and EAEU, Iran's exports will increase by 43 percent. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
262 - A Research on Factors, Affecting Intensity of Energy Use, Based on Divisia Model
Shortage of energy sources - especially fossil fuels, which is our main sources of energy, made many researchers consider the issue of improving energy efficiency and decreasing energy intensity in different industries in recent years. In this MoreShortage of energy sources - especially fossil fuels, which is our main sources of energy, made many researchers consider the issue of improving energy efficiency and decreasing energy intensity in different industries in recent years. In this paper, energy use in Tehran Cement Industry Group has been decomposed into three levels of structural, output and net energy intensity changes, during 1996-2006 by using special fourfold method for analyzing the intensity of energy use. Results show AVE_PDM1 model is the best model for having minimum residues and showed that structural changes has the least effect on the changes in energy uses, while output and net energy intensity changes affect the changes in energy uses most. We can conclude that although effective measures have been taken in decreasing energy intensity and as a result increasing efficiency in Tehran Cement Industry Group, they have failed in different periods due to the inflexibility of production function. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
263 - Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Price in Iran Economy with Emphasis on Volatility of Oil Revenues (Nonlinear Approach)
Mana Mesbahi Hosein Asgharpour Jafar Haghighat Seyed Alireza Kazerooni firooz fallahiAbstract The main objective of this paper is to investigate the impacts of fundamental variables and volatility of oil revenue (as one of the most important of environment prevailing components in Iran economy) on degree of exchange rate pass through (ERPT) into import MoreAbstract The main objective of this paper is to investigate the impacts of fundamental variables and volatility of oil revenue (as one of the most important of environment prevailing components in Iran economy) on degree of exchange rate pass through (ERPT) into import price. For this, Markov-Switching and EGARCH methods were used on the base of data for 1990:3 to 2014:1. The findings indicate that there are two ERPT into import price regimes in Iran economy. The ERPT is more than unitary in both regimes. Also, volatility of oil revenues has asymmetric impacts on ERPTs of regimes in terms of size and sign but it increases ERPT into import price in both regimes. Therefore, managing of volatility of oil revenues and exchange rate changes are suggested. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
264 - Optimum rate of Money Growth in New Keynesian DSGE Framework for Iran Economy
In this paper I have been calculated the optimum rate of money growth in New Keynesian DSGE framework for Iran Economy. The presented model includes three economic agents: a government, i households and j firms. Households and firms have monopolistic power of labor and MoreIn this paper I have been calculated the optimum rate of money growth in New Keynesian DSGE framework for Iran Economy. The presented model includes three economic agents: a government, i households and j firms. Households and firms have monopolistic power of labor and good supply, this facilitates the specification of Nominal and real rigidities and these are specified subject to Rotenberg quadratic adjustment cost function. Simulation results demonstrate that Friedman's Rule is not supported in Iran economy, and in this framework the optimum seasonal rate of inflation and money growth is %2 and %3.003 respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
265 - Modeling the Effects of Green Tax on Health Sector Costs Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model
Mohammad Ali Torki Harchegani Nazar DahmardehAbstract The purpose of this paper is to consider the effects of green taxes on health costs in Iran. Accordingly, to achieve this goal, a computable general equilibrium model was used taking into account the interactions between energy, economy, environment and health MoreAbstract The purpose of this paper is to consider the effects of green taxes on health costs in Iran. Accordingly, to achieve this goal, a computable general equilibrium model was used taking into account the interactions between energy, economy, environment and health sectors simultaneously. The model was calibrated with data from the Social Accounting Matrix of 2011 and the endogenous variables of the model were calculated using the GAMS software using MCP technique. The results showed that by increasing the green tax rates, the health costs caused by the reduction of air pollution would be significantly reduced. Also, the financial impact on health indicators included mortality, morbidity and non-health effects of air pollution were estimated 62, 26.4 and 11.6 percent, respectively. Based on the results, implementation of green taxes can be reduced the health costs of air pollution. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
266 - Evaluation of Asymmetric Co-integration of Real Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in Iran (TAR and M-TAR Model)
In this article, the asymmetric co-integration of trade balance, export and import and exchange rate is investigated by applying Endres-Siklos Method, so TAR and M-TAR models are used. The results of estimating the said models show that there is More In this article, the asymmetric co-integration of trade balance, export and import and exchange rate is investigated by applying Endres-Siklos Method, so TAR and M-TAR models are used. The results of estimating the said models show that there is an asymmetric co-integration between trade balance (non-oil), export (non-oil), import and exchange rate. Meantime, Threshold Error Correction Model has been estimated to investigate short run dynamics of the said variables with regard to the exchange rate. The findings indicate that the main hypothesis of the model, i.e. asymmetric co-integration between real exchange rate and trade balance, is approved. Furthermore, based on the results, the adjustment speed of the trade balance is higher when standing above its equilibrium point. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
267 - The Relationship between Per Capita Health Expenditure and Per Capita GDP (A Case Study of Low and Middle Income Countries)
davood behboodi faranak bastan majid feshariThe main objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between per capita health expenditure and per capita GDP for lower and middle income countries during 2003-2007. For this purpose, we used the Hsiao's-Granger and Toda & Yamamoto(TY) causality tests MoreThe main objective of this paper is to investigate the relationship between per capita health expenditure and per capita GDP for lower and middle income countries during 2003-2007. For this purpose, we used the Hsiao's-Granger and Toda & Yamamoto(TY) causality tests for investigating short-run relation between two variables. The results of the model estimation reveal that there is a unilateral causality from the GDP per capita to per capita health expenditure. Due to the results of this paper, the main implication policy of this study is that the policymakers and economic planners should adopt the suitable policies to improve economic growth and GDP per capita. Because, the increase of GDP per capita can be enhance the consumption expenditures and especially, health expenditures per capita. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
268 - Investigating the Commercial Relations between Iran and Its Other Major Trading Partner Focusing on J-Curve Test
Hasan Heidari Fatemeh ZareiThe appearance of J-curve phenomenon to the issues of international economics in 1970s attracted the attention of researchers to short-run dynamics of trade balance response to the exchange rate changes. While, before 1970s; the studies investigated the reaction of trad MoreThe appearance of J-curve phenomenon to the issues of international economics in 1970s attracted the attention of researchers to short-run dynamics of trade balance response to the exchange rate changes. While, before 1970s; the studies investigated the reaction of trade balance statically. J-curve hypothesis violates the positive effectiveness of currency depreciation on the trade balance in short-run. In this paper, we attempt to combine short-run dynamics of trade balance to its long-run changes by using appropriate method to test J-curve between Iran and other major trading partners in Asia. Bound test method in co-integration and Error Correction Model are used during 1991Q2-2007Q3. Outcomes of our study suggest that there is J-curve effect in bilateral trade balance between Iran and its two other partners, China and Japan. Also, the depreciation of Rial versus other currencies has a favorite effect on bilateral trade balance in long-run. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
269 - E-Business and Startup's Performance
niloofar imankhanAbstract The purpose of this paper is survey of impact of e-business on startup's performance. E-business is investigated in relation to design and production, marketing, distribution, coordination with suppliers and post-sale services. Type of the research is practical MoreAbstract The purpose of this paper is survey of impact of e-business on startup's performance. E-business is investigated in relation to design and production, marketing, distribution, coordination with suppliers and post-sale services. Type of the research is practical and the method is cause and effect. Managers and experts operative startups are the statistical society of research that 140 from 200 included. Library studies and field research for gathering information used and data collection done with questionnaire that its construct, content validity and also reliability approved. Results show that E-business through change on production and distribution process (design, marketing, distribution, coordination with suppliers and post-sale services), decrease of operating expenses and increase of return on asset effect on startup's performance. The government with providing supportive rules, universities with principled training and create entrepreneurship thought space and private sector by risky investment will be golden triangle in the country. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
270 - Evaluation of Fuzzy Labor by Fuzzy neural Network
In this paper, a new hybrid method based on fuzzy neural on fuzzy neural network for estimating the fuzzy coefficients (parameters) of fuzzy supply and demanding the labor function with fuzzy inputs, is presented. Here a neural network is considered as a part of a MoreIn this paper, a new hybrid method based on fuzzy neural on fuzzy neural network for estimating the fuzzy coefficients (parameters) of fuzzy supply and demanding the labor function with fuzzy inputs, is presented. Here a neural network is considered as a part of a large field called neural computing or soft computing. Moreover, in order to find the approximate parameters, a simple algorithm from the cost function of the fuzzy neural network is proposed. Finally, we illustrate our approach by some numerical examples. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
271 - Evaluating the Efficiency of Social Security in Isfahan Province
amir gholamabriSocial security, as one of the largest insurance agencies covering 37 million people of the country population and 63 thousands employees by vast areas of insurance, medical and investment services, has vital effect on the social and economic structure of the country. C MoreSocial security, as one of the largest insurance agencies covering 37 million people of the country population and 63 thousands employees by vast areas of insurance, medical and investment services, has vital effect on the social and economic structure of the country. Consequently, the evaluation of this organization is of high significance. Moreover, DEA is a non-parametric method by solving linear programming problems for evaluating the performance of decision making units by multiple inputs and multiple outputs. In this paper, the efficiency of social security branches in Isfahan Province will be evaluated by DEA during 2011. In continue, efficient and inefficient units of this branch are identified and then efficient units will be ranked by Anderson and Peterson Model. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
272 - Evaluation of Accelerated Vehicles Retirement Program by Game Theory Approach
hosein sadeghi eghlim tamriAir pollution and high consumption of energy carriers have led to perform programs like accelerated vehicle retirement program by the government in recent years. In this study, the researchers have tried to examine this program by Game Theory approach. To achieve the go MoreAir pollution and high consumption of energy carriers have led to perform programs like accelerated vehicle retirement program by the government in recent years. In this study, the researchers have tried to examine this program by Game Theory approach. To achieve the goal, firstly, a static game with complete information is planned by three players involving automaker, transportation and fuel staff and old cars owners. Then, by removing the automaker, the game will be continued by two players through specific strategies for each player. Then, by using existing data of the year 2012, the game is re-written by two players. At the balance of three players, old car owners and automakers tend to retire their old vehicle, but the amount of the facilities and cash payments for this program are low. By removing automaker, the balance happens where the car owners tend to retire their old cars and to implement the project, whereas the credits provided by the government is low. Due to the quick increase of car prices, the authorities must pay attention to develop more facilities for the complete success of the program. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
273 - Comparing the Performance of Linear and Non-Linear Models to Explain Almost Ideal Demand System
Mohammad Rezaei pour Mehdi Zolfaghari mojtaba yousefi dindarloo Abolfazl NajarzadehIn most of empirical studies based on almost ideal demand system (Aids), the elasticity of the price and income estimated by these equations resulted to some sensitive policy making recommendations in microeconomics and macroeconomics. It is in such a case that there is MoreIn most of empirical studies based on almost ideal demand system (Aids), the elasticity of the price and income estimated by these equations resulted to some sensitive policy making recommendations in microeconomics and macroeconomics. It is in such a case that there is some doubt about reliability of linear estimation of such models. In this study, the performance of linear and non-linear almost ideal demand system is under the investigation. For this purpose, seemingly unrelated regression (SURE) method will be applied to estimate linear model and multilayered feed forward neural network (MFNN) is used to estimate a non-linear one. The results indicate that multilayered feed forward neural network is associated with less error than the linear model, and consequently, leads to a better estimation of almost ideal demand system. This result creates some hesitate on application of Stone price index for linear zing estimation of almost ideal demand system. Therefore, it is suggested that feed forward neural network will be applied to estimate almost ideal demand systems. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
274 - Evaluation of Exchange Market Pressure and Degree of Government Intervention by Co-integration Technique: Case Study of Iran
mahmood baghjari Ebrahim Hoseini nasab Reza NajarzadehAbstract Exchange market pressure (EMP) is an important index for evaluating the changes of exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves simultaneously. In this paper, exchange market pressure is calculated based on Weymark approach during 1989: Q1- 2012:Q4. The method MoreAbstract Exchange market pressure (EMP) is an important index for evaluating the changes of exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves simultaneously. In this paper, exchange market pressure is calculated based on Weymark approach during 1989: Q1- 2012:Q4. The method applied for estimating EMP is Co-integration technique by using Johansen-Juselius (JJ) technique. The results have represented that, during the period, there is a pressure on exchange rate and about 44% of exchange market pressure is attracted by foreign exchange and remaining 56% absorbed by the changes in exchange rate. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
275 - Effects of Nano-Technology on Economic Growth in Selected Countries
Yazdan Naghdi Soheila Kaghazian Niki Mohsni fakhr Hadi Parhizi GashtiThis paper attempts to evaluate the effects of nano-technology on the economic growth of Europe Union countries, USA and Japan during 2009-1997 in the frame of an econometric model (GMM) and Panel Data. The results represent that the development nano-technology ha MoreThis paper attempts to evaluate the effects of nano-technology on the economic growth of Europe Union countries, USA and Japan during 2009-1997 in the frame of an econometric model (GMM) and Panel Data. The results represent that the development nano-technology has a positive and significant effect on the economic growth of the countries under the study. So that, 1 percent increase of the research and development costs in nano-technology makes the economic growth of the above countries to be increased about 0.01 percent. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
276 - Comparing the Exchange Rates Predicted by STAR Non-linear Models and Alternative Models
Hasan Khodavaisi Ali VafamandExchange rate known as a strategic variable plays an important role in the economy, because of affecting on different sectors in economy all over the world. So, exchange-rate predictions have always been an important subject for the researchers in Economics. This paper MoreExchange rate known as a strategic variable plays an important role in the economy, because of affecting on different sectors in economy all over the world. So, exchange-rate predictions have always been an important subject for the researchers in Economics. This paper tries to study the attributes of exchange rate developed by monthly official data of Iran Stock Exchange based on Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) models. The result of simulation based on STAR models and estimated by Genetic Algorithm method, outperforms linear time series models, such as ARIMA out of sample predictions based on RMSE, MAE and DA criteria. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
277 - The Effect of Crime on the Development Convergence of the Provinces of Iran: An Application of Spatial Econometrics
Seyed Aziz Arman VAHID KAFILI Hasaan Farazmand Hosein MoltafetThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of crime deterrence (Internal Security) on the convergence of development between the provinces of Iran (during the period 1375 to 1390, respectively). Estimation of convergence equation inspired by Solo- Swan neocl MoreThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of crime deterrence (Internal Security) on the convergence of development between the provinces of Iran (during the period 1375 to 1390, respectively). Estimation of convergence equation inspired by Solo- Swan neoclassical growth theory and using spatial econometrics indicates that while there is no a significant deterrent effect of crime index on the speed of development, convergence of development between the provinces of Iran occur. The existence of convergence among provinces, indicates the success of regional development policy in reducing regional inequality. Non-significant impact of crime in the development process could be due to the huge role of government in the development process and also the lack of enough threshold of crime density for the provinces of Iran. It is recommended that as in the past, regional development policies regardless of the crime density in the provinces continue and this insignificance, lack of seriousness in controlling crime and the causes of crime politicians not to follow. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
278 - Study of Pollution Abatement Policy by Using Comparative Static Analysis and Endogenous Growth Model: Case Study of Iran Economy
sharareh majdzadeh tabatabaei ali hosein ostadzadAbstract In past decade, paying attention to the environment sustainability has been an important macroeconomic goal in different countries by moving towards a low-carbon economic growth. Therefore, this paper attempts to design and calibrate an endogenous growth model MoreAbstract In past decade, paying attention to the environment sustainability has been an important macroeconomic goal in different countries by moving towards a low-carbon economic growth. Therefore, this paper attempts to design and calibrate an endogenous growth model and use comparative static analysis to study the policies such as promoting green R&D, imposing an eco-tax, subsidizing less polluting factors of input for pollution abatement and then, to control the pollution effects on Iran economy. The results represent that the government can adjust the behavior of agents in order to reach a sustainable economic growth with the help of appropriate policies, and so to choose an optimal decision in the allocation of resources. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
279 - The Effect of Stadiums and Professional Sport Teams on Job Earnings in Iran
parviz mohammadzadeh farhad aziziAbstract During two past decades, the building of stadiums and sport projects has been greatly increased in American and European and even Asian countries. Today, as an effective and important factor, it plays a vital role directly and indirectly in the economic develo MoreAbstract During two past decades, the building of stadiums and sport projects has been greatly increased in American and European and even Asian countries. Today, as an effective and important factor, it plays a vital role directly and indirectly in the economic development of cities and countries when producing and consuming sports goods and services. This paper explores the impact of professional sports teams and stadiums on earning in private sector. To get the goal, such jobs as sporting goods stores, grocery stores, restaurants, inn, hotel, transportation and amusements are considered by a closer interaction with stadiums. This study tries to pay attention to such related sports as football and futsal during 2005-2007. The results indicate that there is no positive and significant relationship between the existence of professional teams and stadiums and the earnings of people in related jobs. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
280 - Investigating the Living Situation of Householders in West Azerbaijan and Comparing It to the Whole Country
mohammad naghibi safiar aminiThe investigation of consumer behavior in rural and urban areas of west Azerbaijan province and comparing it to the whole countries the main purpose of this paper by using systematic demand of minimum cost of living. The results of this study show that the most marginal MoreThe investigation of consumer behavior in rural and urban areas of west Azerbaijan province and comparing it to the whole countries the main purpose of this paper by using systematic demand of minimum cost of living. The results of this study show that the most marginal propensity in urban and rural area of west Azerbaijan province and rural of Iran is devoted to "Foods, Beverages and Tobacco groups", but in urban area of Iran it is devoted to "Other groups". The summation of minimum cost of living in urban and rural areas of west Azerbaijan province was more than urban and rural areas of the whole country respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
281 - Comparative Advantage of Manufacturing Industries Based on Employment and TOPSIS Technique: Case Study of Yazd Province
mohamad ali feizpour ali asghar norouzi mohamad reza dehghanpour mehdi emami meibodiIn order to make decision about appropriate policies related to resource allocation in economic sections, the identification of comparative advantage is very important. To do this, finding the potentials of the area selected in favor of national objectives is a necessit MoreIn order to make decision about appropriate policies related to resource allocation in economic sections, the identification of comparative advantage is very important. To do this, finding the potentials of the area selected in favor of national objectives is a necessity. Iran economy has a high level of unemployment nationally and locally and so the reduction of this rate can be one of the most vital purposes of any developmental programs. However, different regions of the country have various comparative advantages in creating jobs. According to the plan predicted, industry is considered as the base of development plans in Yazd. The share of Yazd province in job creation based on population and number of unemployment is envisaged more than average. However, geographical and climate conditions of Yazd province made agricultural development impossible. On the other hand, richness of minerals and human resources in Yazd made manufacturing industries as the concentration point in long-term plans. This study by investigating Yazd manufacturing industries identifies comparative advantages of these industries based on employment at the 4-digit industry levels during the second, third and fourth developmental plans. TOPSIS technique is used for ranking the advantages. The results represent that food and beverages industries as well as textiles, non-metallic mineral products, and electrical machinery industries have more comparative advantages in Yazd. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
282 - Effect of Price Changes in Main Commodity Groups on Rural Households Welfare Based on Linear Expenditure System
samad hekmati farid soleiman feizi nafiseh saadatThis paper is to evaluate the effect of price changes in 8 main commodity groups on rural households during 2001-2012. To estimate subsistence level, rural households' data issued by Iranian Statistics Center is used. In addition, by the the results of linear expenditur MoreThis paper is to evaluate the effect of price changes in 8 main commodity groups on rural households during 2001-2012. To estimate subsistence level, rural households' data issued by Iranian Statistics Center is used. In addition, by the the results of linear expenditure system, the price and income elasticities is calculated along with the compensation and equivalent variations of Iranian Rural households. The results represent that subsistence level for Rural households is 40637 thousand Rials in the year 2012. Furthermore, the compensation and equivalent variations calculated by of commodity groups indicate the increase of prices in each commodity group of subsistence level will decrease rural households welfare. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
283 - Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Shocks on Real Output in Iran: A Markov-Switching Approach
Hosein Shariri Renani Razieh Salehi Sara GhobadiAn important issue in macroeconomics is the effect of monetary shocks on macroeconomic variables. How monetary shocks affect the real production in different economic situations such as recession and expansion is vital for policy makings and the effectiveness of the pol MoreAn important issue in macroeconomics is the effect of monetary shocks on macroeconomic variables. How monetary shocks affect the real production in different economic situations such as recession and expansion is vital for policy makings and the effectiveness of the policies. So, this research tries to test and analyze the asymmetric impacts of monetary shocks on the productions in Iran by using seasonal Time Series Data during 1999-2008 and Markov-Switching model. The results indicate that negative and positive monetary policies in recession and also expansion period have asymmetric effects on domestic production growth. In general, monetary shocks are more effective in recession than expansion. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
284 - Shadow Economy and Income Inequality in Iran
A. Asadzadeh Z. JaliliAbstract This paper studies the relationship between income inequality and shadow economy in Iranian economy during 1971-2010. After examining the structural break of the data by using Bai- Peron endogenous structural break test, and Lee- Strazicich unit root test, the MoreAbstract This paper studies the relationship between income inequality and shadow economy in Iranian economy during 1971-2010. After examining the structural break of the data by using Bai- Peron endogenous structural break test, and Lee- Strazicich unit root test, the study will be done by using Ordinary Least Squares. Based on the results obtained, the effect of shadow economy on income inequality is positive and by the increase of shadow economy, income inequality will be increased. Also, the results indicate that the increase of government size leads to the increase of the income inequality. In addition, the simultaneous effect of the shadow economy, economic growth and government size represent that a rise of shadow economy will increase income inequality. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
285 - Forecasting OPEC Crude Oil Price by Applying Gray Forecasting Model
H. Javanmard S. F faghidianIn world economy, crude oil is considered as one of the most strategic commodities playing a vital role in the determination of many regional and global equations. So, it is well known that an intense fluctuation of the oil price causes large recession in OPEC countries MoreIn world economy, crude oil is considered as one of the most strategic commodities playing a vital role in the determination of many regional and global equations. So, it is well known that an intense fluctuation of the oil price causes large recession in OPEC countries. So many researchers attempt to forecast crude oil price while oil market is one of the most complex, turbulent and chaotic international financial markets. In present research, gray system theory is utilized to model and forecast the price of crude oil. The results represent that gray forecasting model significantly improves the accuracy of the forecasting operation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
286 - Factors Affecting the Expenditures of Consuming Non-durable Goods in Iran Economy
karim emami saman darbaniThis study investigates the factors that influence the expenditure of consuming non-durable goods in the economy of Iran. the importance of non durable consumer goods in the basket of household caused to identify the factors affecting the consumption of these goods. By MoreThis study investigates the factors that influence the expenditure of consuming non-durable goods in the economy of Iran. the importance of non durable consumer goods in the basket of household caused to identify the factors affecting the consumption of these goods. By statistical time series during 1979-2007, a model was estimated by Vector Auto Regression method. Factors which affect the marginal expenditure of non durable goods include disposable income, wealth, inflation, index of durable goods to non-durable goods and the real interest rate. In this regard, information and data of the Central Bank of Islamic Republic of Iran were used. The results stated that by increasing the wealth and income, the consumption of non-durable goods will be increased. Also, any increase in the index of durable goods to non-durable goods will grow non-durable goods consumption. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
287 - Estimation of Water Demand Function in Golestan Province Household Sector
mehdi adibpour rahimeh shirashianiThe aim of this paper is to assess the demand function of municipal water for of Golestan province by adopting a pooling data model during 1999-2011 to determine the minimum requirement of water quite necessary for livelihood. The results indicate that the price elastic MoreThe aim of this paper is to assess the demand function of municipal water for of Golestan province by adopting a pooling data model during 1999-2011 to determine the minimum requirement of water quite necessary for livelihood. The results indicate that the price elasticity of demand is -0/26, income elasticity of demand is 0/00095 and cross elasticity of demand is -0/2. Therefore, water is an essential and complementary commodity. The minimum requirement of water is 687 liters daily. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
288 - Impact of Government Size on Economic Growth in the Selected Countries
This paper investigates the effect of government size on economic growth of 23 selected countries during 1980-2008. To do this, the government size variable is determined by the government general consumption expenditure ratio to GDP and then Static Panel Data technique MoreThis paper investigates the effect of government size on economic growth of 23 selected countries during 1980-2008. To do this, the government size variable is determined by the government general consumption expenditure ratio to GDP and then Static Panel Data technique is used along with the data during 1980-2008. The results reveal that government size, inflation and female fertility rate have negative and investment has positive and significant effects on economic growth in those countries. Moreover, they represent that the effect of market size is not significant. Furthermore, based on the conditions of model estimation, sometimes trade openness has positive and significant effect on economic growth but insignificant in other times. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
289 - Causality Relationship between Energy Consumption and Production in Iran Industries during 1995-2007
Seyed Kamal Sadeghi Naser Senoobar Davood Behboodi Ali DehghaniThis paper investigates the effect of energy consumption on the production of industries having more than 9 employees in Iran. Hsiao’s Granger Causality and Granger Causality in Panel Data is used along with the data during 1995-2007 to study the issue. The findin MoreThis paper investigates the effect of energy consumption on the production of industries having more than 9 employees in Iran. Hsiao’s Granger Causality and Granger Causality in Panel Data is used along with the data during 1995-2007 to study the issue. The findings represent that the energy consumption has a positive effect on the production of industries in Iran. Moreover, the results indicate that there is unilateral causality relationship between energy consumption and the value of industrial productions. Hence, the main implication policy of this study is that the policy makers should adopt the policies to improve the value of production in these sectors. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
290 - Customer Behavior Analysis of the Bank Industry: Grounded Theory Approach
Mostafa Esfandiari niloufar imankhanAbstract The present paper has reviewed a comprehensive approach and qualitative research method based on Strauss and Corbin's theory (1988), to examine and present the brand assessment model through customer behavior analysis. The sample size was finalized for intervi MoreAbstract The present paper has reviewed a comprehensive approach and qualitative research method based on Strauss and Corbin's theory (1988), to examine and present the brand assessment model through customer behavior analysis. The sample size was finalized for interviewing experts in the context of theoretical saturation, and the foundation theory data strategy, including open source, axial and selective coding, as well as the basic model of this theory was used to formulate the model of the research. The findings of the research led to identification of causative conditions, grounded conditions, interventional conditions and evaluation dimensions in customer behavior analysis based on the brand choice of the bank. Formulating valuation strategies with the approach of customer relationship process measurement, service delivery process, customer segmentation process, target selection process and placement process, a mentality image based on brand distinction and competitive advantage will be based on customer analysis and selection. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
291 - The Analysis of the Domestic and International R&D Impact of Agricultural TFP in Iran
Abstract This study measures the total factor productivity in the agriculture of Iran and analyzes the relationship between TFP, domestic agricultural research, human capital and foreign agricultural R&D during 1979 – 2008. The Divisia index approach More Abstract This study measures the total factor productivity in the agriculture of Iran and analyzes the relationship between TFP, domestic agricultural research, human capital and foreign agricultural R&D during 1979 – 2008. The Divisia index approach is applied for the measurement of total factor productivity in Iran agriculture. Almon distributed lag model involving different lag length specifications will be estimated taking TFP as a dependent variable. The results indicate that agricultural researches (both domestic and foreign R&D) have positive and significant impact on TFP in agricultural sector. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
292 - Consequences of Economic Globalization on Iran's Domestic Inflation
In economic literature, it is expected that globalization increase the role of external factors in the inflation process, while decreasing the effects of internal factors on inflation. In this article, Reaction Functions and Variance Analysis have been analyzed by using MoreIn economic literature, it is expected that globalization increase the role of external factors in the inflation process, while decreasing the effects of internal factors on inflation. In this article, Reaction Functions and Variance Analysis have been analyzed by using VAR model. Results show domestic inflation is affected by some variables, including Expected Inflation, Import Inflation and Internal and External Production Gap. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
293 - The Effect of Manufacturing Products and Foreign Direct Investment on Co2 Emission in D8 Countries
Mohammad mehdi Barghi oskoee Firooz fallahi Sona zhendeh khatibiIn this research, we will study the effects of different variables such as energy consumption, manufacturing products, foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic development on the emission of Co2 in D8 countries during 1990-2007 as an econometric model estimated by u MoreIn this research, we will study the effects of different variables such as energy consumption, manufacturing products, foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic development on the emission of Co2 in D8 countries during 1990-2007 as an econometric model estimated by using Panel Data and GMM. The results represent that, in Fixed Effect method, all variables under the examination except FDI have a positive and significant effect on Co2 emission. In GMM, all variables estimated are positive and significant too. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
294 - Price Analysis of Farmlands by Applying Hedonic Method: a Case Study for Sabzevar
In this article, Hedonic Method has been applied to estimate a model for market value of the farmlands in Sabzevar during the farming periods of 2008-2009. Based on this Method, a price of the commodity is used for valuation of its properties, having More In this article, Hedonic Method has been applied to estimate a model for market value of the farmlands in Sabzevar during the farming periods of 2008-2009. Based on this Method, a price of the commodity is used for valuation of its properties, having been negotiated informally in the market. The required data have been gathered by distributing 350 questionnaires throughout the irrigated lands. The results indicate that the irrigation volume of the groundwater, the distance of the traded land from Sabzevar and the soil structure mostly affect the price of the surrounded lands. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
295 - Studding Democracy Convergence in Developing Countries: A Spatial Econometric Approach
Seyed Kamal Sadeghi mohsen pourabdollahan Parviz Mohamadzadeh zahra karimi parvin alimoradi afsharThe purpose of this paper is to study empirically the convergence of democracy in developing countries. For this purpose, the spatial econometric and panel data approach was used during the period 1990- 2014. The results show that the geographic proximity of countries h MoreThe purpose of this paper is to study empirically the convergence of democracy in developing countries. For this purpose, the spatial econometric and panel data approach was used during the period 1990- 2014. The results show that the geographic proximity of countries has a positive and significant effect on democracy. In other words, on average, the increase in the level of democracy in the geographic neighbors has led to a 6 percent increase in democracy, which reflects the political influence of each other. Also, foreign aids does not have a significant effect on the spread of democracy in developing countries. In general, the spatial effects of democracy or the theory of diffusion in developing countries are confirmed. Therefore, According to the theory of diffusion and convergence of democracy, increase or decrease in democracy in a country can increase or decrease democracy in neighboring countries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
296 - An Investigation of the Financial Development and Financial Volatility on the Economic Growth: The Case of Iran 1955-2006
This paper investigates the effect of financial development and financial volatility on economic growth in short run and long run for the Iranian economy of Iran. To do so, we used a GARCH model for driving the volatility of financial variable and then, we used ARDL mod MoreThis paper investigates the effect of financial development and financial volatility on economic growth in short run and long run for the Iranian economy of Iran. To do so, we used a GARCH model for driving the volatility of financial variable and then, we used ARDL model to estimate the relation of financial variables on the economic growth. The indicator of financial development is the ratio of banking system credits for the private sector to GDP and the indicator of financial volatility is its conditional variance. The results represent a negative effect of credit on the real per- capita income in short -run and long run. This negative effect can be made by the inefficiency of Iranian banking system. The effect of financial volatility is also negative and significant in both short run and long- run. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
297 - The Use of an Endogenous Growth Model to Calculate the Optimal Rate of Value Added Tax with Emphasis on Harmful Products and Waste
Ahmad Jafari Samimi Saeed Karimi Potanlar Kooroush AzamiThe aim of this paper is to calculate the optimal rate of value added tax with emphasis on harmful products and waste and oil revenues using a model of endogenous growth for Iran’s economy. For this purpose, at first, a generalized growth model for three parts inc MoreThe aim of this paper is to calculate the optimal rate of value added tax with emphasis on harmful products and waste and oil revenues using a model of endogenous growth for Iran’s economy. For this purpose, at first, a generalized growth model for three parts including households, firms and government developed. After developing the model and achieving a determiner relationship of the optimal rate of value added tax, using the parameters of Iran’s economy, the model was calibrated and tax optimized values for different scenarios were calculated. The results showed that in the face of declining oil revenues, to remain in a constant situation, optimal rate of value added tax will be increased. More economic growth will increase the tax optimal rate. By increasing social sensitivity to the harmful products and waste, in order to provide optimum conditions for social welfare, the optimal rate of value added tax should be increased. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
298 - Determinants of Fuel Subsidies in Selected Oil Exporting Countries: (The Case Study of Gasoline Subsidy)
Hossein Tavakolian Ali Faridzad Jalal Dehnavi Neda MohamadiAbstract The purpose of this paper is to examine the factors affecting the payment of fossil fuel subsidies in oil exporting countries. To this end, the determinants of fossil fuel subsidies in selected exporting countries are divided into three sections: economic, poli MoreAbstract The purpose of this paper is to examine the factors affecting the payment of fossil fuel subsidies in oil exporting countries. To this end, the determinants of fossil fuel subsidies in selected exporting countries are divided into three sections: economic, political and institutional factors, and analyzed by the method of generalized moment data of dynamic panel data in the period 2003-2015. The results showed that variables such as carbon emissions and health costs are effective in paying gasoline subsidies. International Indicators of Risk also show the impact of institutional and political factors on subsidies. Based on the results, international organizations or management organizations should have targeted and accurate investment in improving the organizational and institutional capacity of the countries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
299 - Developing an Appropriate Model to Evaluate the Qualitative Performance of the University A Case Study of Islamic Azad University, Firoozkooh Branch
mohammad hosein darvish motavali amir gholam abri mahmoud darvish motevaliIn this Paper, a frame work integrated of Fuzzy Analytic Network and Goal Programming is developed to help the students to calculate the qualitative Performance of a university. To extract coefficients in a mathematical model, Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (Fuzzy-ANP) MoreIn this Paper, a frame work integrated of Fuzzy Analytic Network and Goal Programming is developed to help the students to calculate the qualitative Performance of a university. To extract coefficients in a mathematical model, Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (Fuzzy-ANP) will be used. The method produced is able to consider a multi-objective nature for the problem. To do so, the other goals in designing such as the limitation of financial resources, technological possibilities, rate of development and Competitiveness of technical requirements are to be considered. Finally, the ideal model developed will contain the importance of technical requirements by the help of the methodology of Fuzzy Analytic Network Process, budget limitations, rate of technological possibilities, development and competition of a need as systematic boundaries to determine a part of technical requirement significant in designing. This framework is applied in Islamic Azad University Firouzkouh Branch. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
300 - The Effective Factors on Survival Duration of Economic Expansion in Selected Countries of Islamic Cooperation Organization (Survival Analysis Approach)
Majid FeshariThe aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of inflation rate, investment, oil price and oil income and the ratio of devoted credits to private sector divided by survival duration of economic expansion in twenty five OIC countries during the period of 1994-2014. MoreThe aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of inflation rate, investment, oil price and oil income and the ratio of devoted credits to private sector divided by survival duration of economic expansion in twenty five OIC countries during the period of 1994-2014. For achieving this purpose, the research experiential model have been estimated by using cyclical models method by assuming Weibul distribution. The results from the estimated model indicate to positive affecting inflation, oil price, oil income, gross domestic fixed capital formation and the ratio of devoted credits to private sector divided by survival duration of economic expansion in the studding countries. So it can be suggested that the economic policy makers in the Islamic Cooperation Organization countries by increasing investment and by developing financial markets deal with increase of domestic production capacity and probability of more survival to economic expansion. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
301 - Financing Through Public-Private Partnership and Development
hasan noei aghdam Sayed Shams Alddin Hoseini Abbas Me'marnejad karim emami jozeThe main purpose is to explain the impact of financing through public-private partnerships with government funding on development. For this purpose, the system of simultaneous equations was used based on Iranian Registry data from 1976 to 1978. Estimated coefficients fo MoreThe main purpose is to explain the impact of financing through public-private partnerships with government funding on development. For this purpose, the system of simultaneous equations was used based on Iranian Registry data from 1976 to 1978. Estimated coefficients for the effect of financing through public-private partnerships and government funding on development were tested. The results showed that public-private partnership financing was about four times more likely to affect development than government funding. This difference is not rejected at the 98% level. It is proposed to increase the share of financing through public-private partnerships rather than through government funding to further the development goals.This move, in addition to freeing up government funding for other development goals, allows for increased private sector participation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
302 - Impact of the Government Expenditure on Private Consumption and Investment in VAR and FAVAR Model
mansour khalili araghi Hassan SharifiThe aim of this paper was survey of the government's current and development expenditure impact on private consumption and investment in Iran economy. In this study, Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive method was used on the base of seasonal data frequency in the per MoreThe aim of this paper was survey of the government's current and development expenditure impact on private consumption and investment in Iran economy. In this study, Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive method was used on the base of seasonal data frequency in the period 1370-1394.The results showed that the government's current and development expenditure have a complementary effect on private consumer spending; but government expenditure in two current and development sectors has had a substitutional effect on private investment. According to the results, it is suggested that in order to boom and economic development in various economic sectors, the government deal with infrastructure expenditure and on the other hand, help by increasing private investment subject to no budget deficit increase. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
303 - The Estimation of Systematic Risk in Iranian Financial Sectors (ΔCoVaR Approach)
samad hekmati farid Ali Rezazadeh ali malekAbstract The occurrence of last crisis has led to the consideration of systematic risk and it's transmission in theoretical and empirical point view. Hence, the main aim of this paper is to estimate and localize of systematic risk in financial sectors of Iran such as St MoreAbstract The occurrence of last crisis has led to the consideration of systematic risk and it's transmission in theoretical and empirical point view. Hence, the main aim of this paper is to estimate and localize of systematic risk in financial sectors of Iran such as Stock, Insurance and Bank sectors during the period of 1995-2015. The quintile regression econometric approach has been used for estimating the difference conditional value at risk in these sectors. The main empirical findings of post estimation indicated that there is significant difference between Stock, Insurance and Bank sectors as main financial sectors. Moreover, the results of Fridman test as a method for ordering of variable status showed that, the systematic risk of insurance is high and risk of bank is low during the period of study. So, there is significant difference between orders of financial sectors in Iran over the period of study. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
304 - Institutions and development in the Middle East Countries
mohammad hosein fatehi dabanloo Kambiz hojabr kiani abbas memarnejad mohsen mehraraThe main purpose of this study is to investigate the interaction between institutions and development in the Middle East countries. To testing the hypotheses the Middle East countries were divided into two groups of oil exporting and non-oil-exporting, then the research MoreThe main purpose of this study is to investigate the interaction between institutions and development in the Middle East countries. To testing the hypotheses the Middle East countries were divided into two groups of oil exporting and non-oil-exporting, then the research models as systematic and three-stage least squares have been used by the data during the period 1996 to 2014 for the two groups. Wald, Kruskal-Wallis and least significant difference tests were also utilized in appraising the interaction between institutions and development. The findings show that there is a significant difference between institutions and development interaction in the oil exporting and non-oil-exporting countries in the Middle East. In both groups, the estimated coefficient for the impact of development on institutions is more than the impact of institutions on development. Therefore, pay attention to development, automatically, in addition to improving its indices, upgrades the institutions conditions and improves the indices performance. This impact is exist by institution, also, but the variation speed is more by development. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
305 - Simulation of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations in Iran
saeed isazadeh habib morovat omid sharifiIn this paper by considering importance of inflation expectations, its formation quality has investigated by regarding heterogeneous economic agents and by factor based computing model, expected inflation in Iran economy has simulated with lest forecasting error squares MoreIn this paper by considering importance of inflation expectations, its formation quality has investigated by regarding heterogeneous economic agents and by factor based computing model, expected inflation in Iran economy has simulated with lest forecasting error squares during 1979-2013. On the base of the assumptions, individuals have been divided into two groups with extroverted and regressive to trend expectations in which the ratio of these groups can change over time. The results show that the economic agents with extroverted inflationary expectations have an important role in inflation durability and changing the behavioral parameters of economic agents affects inflation expectation. Therefore, because of the possibility of endogenous dynamism mobility in the model, it is better that Policy-makers notice to the condition of inflationary expectations change in making polices. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
306 - Joint Pricing and Inventory Routing Modeling in a Two Echelon Closed Supply Chain
mohamad mohamadnejad Isa nakhaei kama abadi Ramin Sadeghian Fardin Ahmadi zarAbstract This paper studies the pricing issue in a multi-period and multi-product closed-loop supply chain with price-dependent demands. The aim is to assign a location for the collection and disassemble center, vehicle routing, and material ordering in order to maximi MoreAbstract This paper studies the pricing issue in a multi-period and multi-product closed-loop supply chain with price-dependent demands. The aim is to assign a location for the collection and disassemble center, vehicle routing, and material ordering in order to maximize the profit. In the study, a non-linear mathematical model is presented for small scale problems. Due to the NP-hardness of the problem, two met heuristics, genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization algorithm, are applied to solve medium and large scale problems. The algorithms are validated by comparing their results with those of the mathematical model. Finally, the performance comparison of the two met heuristics through statistical analysis is demonstrated that the particle swarm optimization algorithm performance outperforms the genetic algorithm. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
307 - Expansion of Financial Distress Modeling Using Corporate Earnings Management in the Iran's Economic Environment
Abbas Ramezanzadeh Zeidi Khosro Faghani Makrani Ali jafariThe purpose of this study is to provide a model for financial distress predicting with real earnings management.So the redesignthe financial distress prediction model of Altman (1983) with the real earnings management variable as a predictor variable, the performance of MoreThe purpose of this study is to provide a model for financial distress predicting with real earnings management.So the redesignthe financial distress prediction model of Altman (1983) with the real earnings management variable as a predictor variable, the performance of the unadjusted model and the adjusted model in predicting of financial distress among companies accepted in the Tehran Stock Exchange was compared.The statistical sample consists of 179 Companies during the years 2008- 2017.Data analysis and hypothesis testing were performed using multiple logistic regression.The results show that the overall accuracy of the adjusted model is higher than the unadjusted model. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
308 - The Effect of Targeted Subsidy on Demand Rate of Urban Water in Qom City
Farkhondeh jebel ameli Yazdan Goodarzi FarahaniIn this paper, the effect of subsidy on the long run urban water demand function has been examined in the city of Qom. To do this, the researchers have used monthly time series data during 2008:01-2011:06. The model estimated is based on the maximization of Stone - Gery MoreIn this paper, the effect of subsidy on the long run urban water demand function has been examined in the city of Qom. To do this, the researchers have used monthly time series data during 2008:01-2011:06. The model estimated is based on the maximization of Stone - Gery utility function, autoregressive and co-integrated model approaches. The results indicate that the decrease or removal of water subsidy would decrease urban water demand. Also, Qom urban water demand has a negative relation to the price of water and other commodities and has a positive one to the revenue. All of these relationships are completely in line with economic theories. The province urban water demand is inelastic to water and other commodities prices and so a necessity for revenue. Also, the minimum level of water consumption of the households, when removing the price subsidy, is 38 liters per day. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
309 - Estimating Long Run and Short Run Natural Gas Demand in Home Consumption
mohamad babazadeh khalil ghadimi dizaj vahid ghorbaniNatural gas high consumption in home sector is an important issue in Iranian economy. The data confirm that the increase of natural gas consumption in Iran is dramatically high near 9.9 percent. This paper estimates long run and short run natural gas demand by using ARD MoreNatural gas high consumption in home sector is an important issue in Iranian economy. The data confirm that the increase of natural gas consumption in Iran is dramatically high near 9.9 percent. This paper estimates long run and short run natural gas demand by using ARDL, ECM models during 1999-2009. The results indicate that natural gas can't be substituted by electricity; there is a long run relationship between the variables; price elasticity of natural gas is -0.12 and -o.36 in short run and long run respectively but not statistically significant and income elasticity, in short run and long run, is 0.627 and 0.88 respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
310 - Identifying the Key and Forward Sectors in Economic Development of East Azerbaijan Province
Roya Al Emran Hasan Alizadeh Asl seyed Ali Al EmranThe aim of this paper is to identify the sectors having the most backward and forward linkage to the other economic sectors in East Azerbaijan. The research methodology is based on input-output, the backward and forward linkages and structural path analysis. the results MoreThe aim of this paper is to identify the sectors having the most backward and forward linkage to the other economic sectors in East Azerbaijan. The research methodology is based on input-output, the backward and forward linkages and structural path analysis. the results represent that machinery, chemical products, rubber and plastic, and agriculture, horticulture and forestry sectors have the most important direct and indirect backward linkages, but the sectors like food products, wood products, furniture and paper and petroleum products have the most important direct and indirect forward linkages and the multiplier of these interactions have been analyzed with the path analysis approach and indirect paths of demand increase are differentiated from the direct paths of supply increase. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
311 - Evaluation of Structure and Performance of Automobile Industry in Iran
Abstract Study this focuses on structure and performance of industry during1998-2007. According to the result of the analysis, the indices between the two top enterprises are in fluctuation between 77/93-99/21 based on Concentration Index, between 3625-4953 as per the MoreAbstract Study this focuses on structure and performance of industry during1998-2007. According to the result of the analysis, the indices between the two top enterprises are in fluctuation between 77/93-99/21 based on Concentration Index, between 3625-4953 as per the Herfindhal-Hireshman Index, and between 0/415-0/488 according to the Entropy Index. From the calculated indices figures it can be proved that concentration level is very high in this market. Moreover, social cost (welfare loss) of monopoly in the same market is measured by the use of Cowling & Muller Methods in 2007. Due to the analyses, first the functional cost of sedan automobile has been estimated in format of collating one sample data by separating 5 major institutes and manufacturer of vehicle including: Iran khodro, Saipa, Pars khodro, Bahman Group, Moratab in time intervals from 2000 to 2007. Result in dicats welfare loss due to monopoly was 26% of product sale in this market in 2007 which represents high amount of concentration. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
312 - Examining Technical Efficiency of Industries and the Position of High-tech Industries in Iran
mehdi rezaei hasan valad beigi parisa yaghobi manzariThe goal of this paper is to estimate technical efficiency of the industries and the position of high-tech industries in Iran. The researchers have tried to estimate technical efficiency of 123 Iranian industries including 10 high-tech manufactures during 2008-2010. To MoreThe goal of this paper is to estimate technical efficiency of the industries and the position of high-tech industries in Iran. The researchers have tried to estimate technical efficiency of 123 Iranian industries including 10 high-tech manufactures during 2008-2010. To get the goal, a stochastic frontier production function has been used. The results represent that the technical efficiency is averagely 0.4 during the years under study. The technical efficiency of 49 industries including 6 out of 10 the high-tech industries have a technical efficiency more than the average. As well as, “manufacture of optical instruments and photographic equipment” and “manufacture of aircraft and spacecraft” have higher technical efficiency than others. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
313 - Estimating the Food Price and Income Elasticities in Tehran Urban Households
vida varahrami zohreh hoshmand reza yousefi haji absdAbstract The aim of this research is to estimate the food price and income elasticities in urban household of Tehran province. For this purpose, the data of household food items in Tehran province used by different groups of household consumer goods are gathered and th MoreAbstract The aim of this research is to estimate the food price and income elasticities in urban household of Tehran province. For this purpose, the data of household food items in Tehran province used by different groups of household consumer goods are gathered and then handled as a combination of linear almost ideal demand system based on seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) during 2004- 2012. In this paper, the behavior of price and income elasticities has been studied in urban households. The overall results represent that cereals, dairy products and oils group are a part of essential commodities. Meats, fish and marine animals are luxury goods. Cross-price elasticities, in term of absolute value, are less than one in most cases. Auto-price elasticity of fish and marine animals is more than one unit. In other word, this group is a kind of elastic goods Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
314 - The Effect of Capital Income Share Variation on Economic Growth and Total Factor Productivity: A Growth Accounting Approach
mehdi fathabadiThe factors ‘shares are constant in Solow growth accounting approach. The purposes of this paper are evaluating the effect of capital income share change on economic growth, implementing the growth accounting approach to calculate total factor productivity (TFP) c MoreThe factors ‘shares are constant in Solow growth accounting approach. The purposes of this paper are evaluating the effect of capital income share change on economic growth, implementing the growth accounting approach to calculate total factor productivity (TFP) considering that capital income share to be changed; and finally, estimating the effect of capital income share and it’s variation on TFP growth. For this reason, the data of value added, capital stock, and labor compensation with constant values at 2011 as well as labor forces data of manufacturing industries in 31 Iran’s provinces during 2000-2014 have been collected. Findings show that the capital income share variation had positive effect on income per capita in provinces ‘manufacturing industries with value 11.5 thousand Rials. The growth accounting results indicate that classic factors contribution (labor and capital stock) of economic growth was 11.4 and 200 percent, respectively. Moreover, capital income share variation and Zuleta TFP contribution of manufacturing industries economic growth are 30 and -141 percent, respectively. Finally, outcomes of panel least squares (PLS) estimation show that capital income share variation has significant and positive effect on TFP growth, but income share level doesn’t significant effect during the considered period. In fact, a one percent increase in capital income share will increase the TFP growth by approximately 2.6 percent; which these are due to variation of factor abundant ratio and biased technological change in provinces ‘manufacturing industries of Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
315 - Analyzing the Determinants of Housing Prices in Tehran City
mirhosein mousavi hosein doroodianAbstract In this paper, the factors affecting house prices have been studied in Tehran during 1991-2007. After combining the parameters and variables, land prices, construction costs, interest rates, per capita residential buildings completed, money supply and the retu MoreAbstract In this paper, the factors affecting house prices have been studied in Tehran during 1991-2007. After combining the parameters and variables, land prices, construction costs, interest rates, per capita residential buildings completed, money supply and the returns in alternative markets are considered as theoretical determinants of housing prices, in which their effects should be tested and measured. Besides these factors, a component of unobserved or implicit trend including technical performance, preferences and non-economic factors is considered in the model. In order to estimate the model, a structural time series is used. This model has the capability to specify the regression equation of state - space and Kalman filter algorithm and the maximum likelihood method to estimate unknown parameters. The results have reflected the negative impact of real interest rates, returns on alternative assets such as gold, foreign exchange, equities, per capita residential buildings completed and the positive impact of construction costs. But, M2 is weak and insignificant. Strong relationship between land prices and housing prices identified seem to bo a simultaneous movement of two variable rather than a causal relationship. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
316 - Dynamicity of Gold Demands and its Most Important Determinants: A Panel Data Approach
zahra jaliliThe vital role of gold reserves in balance sheets of world central banks on one hand and its attractiveness in investments as a reliable property within an unstable macroeconomic environment on the other hand caused that this precious metal to be paid attention to by po MoreThe vital role of gold reserves in balance sheets of world central banks on one hand and its attractiveness in investments as a reliable property within an unstable macroeconomic environment on the other hand caused that this precious metal to be paid attention to by policy makers, researchers and market macroeconomic agents even after the collapse of Breton Woods System. This paper presents the estimates of factors that affect physical demand for gold and its dynamicity using panel data approach and Generalized Method of Moments for 25 during 2000-2011. Results indicate that the most important element affecting the demand for gold is the past times demands. Other determinants affecting the demand positively are per capita income, per capita income growth, inflation rate, private sectors credits and real interest rate. Change in variables such as per capita income volatilities, inflation volatilities and stock market value affect the gold demand negatively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
317 - Economic Loss of Dust Storms in Iran West Provinces Case Study of Ilam, Khuzestan and Kermanshah
Kouh Sar KhalediDust storm has made massive loss in west and south provinces of Iran during 2000s. In this study, the damages or losses caused by dust storms will be evaluated in the economy of highly vulnerable regions including Ilam, Khuzestan and Kermanshah during 2006-2011 using pa MoreDust storm has made massive loss in west and south provinces of Iran during 2000s. In this study, the damages or losses caused by dust storms will be evaluated in the economy of highly vulnerable regions including Ilam, Khuzestan and Kermanshah during 2006-2011 using parametric methods. The total economic losses of agricultural productions in these provinces has been estimated about 2,227 million dollars under the conditions of the first scenario and about 13,361 million dollars under the conditions of the fourth scenario. In 2009, each day off caused by dust storm in three provinces officially announced by local government has totally made 142 million dollars loss based on provincial value added and 66 million dollars loss based on average national value added. Following up the natural rights of citizens through regional and international organizations, implementing the crisis management, encouraging Iraq government to control the dust centers and supporting completely the economic actors, especially the farmers in provinces affected by the dust storms are recommended to solve the problem. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
318 - Stock Price Forecasting through Using ANN and ARIMA Techniques: A Case Study of Pars Petroleum Company
Seyed Nezame aldin Makian Fateme sadat MousaviStock exchange market is one of the important ways to investment. In this market, the investors are looking for the best securities to maximize the profit. Therefore, forecasting the stock price of next day has a vital role in purchasing such securities. To do this, app MoreStock exchange market is one of the important ways to investment. In this market, the investors are looking for the best securities to maximize the profit. Therefore, forecasting the stock price of next day has a vital role in purchasing such securities. To do this, application of Neural Networks financial forecasting has become very popular over the last few years. In this paper, for predicting the next day's close stock price of Pars Petroleum Company, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) will be developed, used and compared. The data are daily collected and analyzed during 2009-2011. The findings indicate that forecasting the price by Neural Network is superior to ARIMA due to its less error coefficients and high explanatory ability. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
319 - Estimation of the Cost Efficiency of the Branches of Tejarat Bank in Isfahan Province and Its Affective Factors
Regarding the basic role of bank systems in economy of countries, the efficiency of the banking industry has always been at the center of statesmen's attention, and the establishing an efficient network of bank branches is reckoned as one of the main methods for providi MoreRegarding the basic role of bank systems in economy of countries, the efficiency of the banking industry has always been at the center of statesmen's attention, and the establishing an efficient network of bank branches is reckoned as one of the main methods for providing efficiency optimization plans at bank level. Based on this, the present paper deals with the estimation of cost efficiency in 128 Branches of Tejarat Bank in Isfahan Province within 2007-2009, with the study of the affective factors of the above mentioned branches cost efficiency using the stochastic frontier analysis, Translog cost function and Maximum Likelihood method. The model used in this research is the inefficiency model of Battese and Coelli (1995). The statistic results from data fitting show that average cost efficiency of the Branches of Tejarat Bank in Isfahan Province in the period under study was 87.61%. Also, cost efficiency seems to be directly related to the ratios of the facilities granted to total asset and pre-tax profits to total assets and reversely related to the ratios of cash assets to total assets and long-term deposits to total deposits of the braches. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
320 - Evaluating the Economies of Scale in Islamic Azad University Branches
mansour ardeshiriThis paper investigates the economies of scale of higher education in Islamic Azad University. We use the long-run Translog multi product cost function and estimate, respected to the homogeneity and symmetry restrictions, to use Systematic Iterative Seemingly Unrelated MoreThis paper investigates the economies of scale of higher education in Islamic Azad University. We use the long-run Translog multi product cost function and estimate, respected to the homogeneity and symmetry restrictions, to use Systematic Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regression (ISUR). The data will be collected from 29 selected branches of Islamic Azad University during 2000-2005.Results indicate diseconomies of scale in level of undergraduate education and economies of scale in level of postgraduate education and an optimal number of students for undergraduate education is 7000 to 9000 and for postgraduate education is 800 to 1000. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
321 - Calculation of Elasticity of CO2 Emission Intensity of Energy-Intensive Industries with the Approach of Identifying Important Input-Output Coefficients
Elaheh Shareie Ali Faridzad ali asghar banoueiAbstract &nbs MoreAbstract The purpose of this study is to analyses the effect of changes in technology and distribution of economic sectors on CO2 emission intensity of the first five Iranian energy intensive industries used identifying Important Coefficients based on 2011 input-output table. The results of two Leontief Demand-Driven and Ghosh Supply-Driven Approaches show that one percent changing in technology of production and distribution of product of chemical materials and chemical products manufacturing, coking, processing of petroleum and nuclear fuel and manufacture of basic metal products will reduce more than one percent of CO2 emissions intensity. Since that mentioned sectors are in inappropriate condition due to their great potential CO2 emissions intensities, hence it is essential to make emission reduction policies about these sectors to reduce CO2 emissions intensity significantly. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
322 - The Role of Knowledge-Based Economy in Controlling Inflation
atieh gorjizadeh hosein sharifi renaniIn a knowledge-based economy, developing the knowledge and skills will lead to the innovation which in turn increase the productivity and revenue and reduce the inflation and unemployment. Due to the importance of applying the knowledgeto improve economic conditions, th MoreIn a knowledge-based economy, developing the knowledge and skills will lead to the innovation which in turn increase the productivity and revenue and reduce the inflation and unemployment. Due to the importance of applying the knowledgeto improve economic conditions, this paper has attempted to illustrate the effect of knowledge-based economy on the inflation in Iran by using annualtime series data during 1978-2011 applying Auto Regressive Distributed Lagmodel(ARDL) to test and analyze the data. The Research results show a significant correlation between the inflation rate and the knowledge based economy elements including education and human resource development, economic and institutional regime, innovation, infrastructure and information systems. The research also emphasize that this correlation will be negative in long-term for all elements except education and human resource development that it is positive. That is, by a knowledge-based economy, the inflation will be decreased in long run. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
323 - Modeling and Ranking the Criteria in Providing Favorable Financing for Public Sector by Using MCDM: Case study of Mashhad Metropolis
rasool ghorbani mitra azimiAbstract This study is to use a library and comparative analysis method for ranking the criteria affecting the optimal model in Mashhad municipal finance and then providing a scheme for the model developed. To get the goal, 23 people are selected in Mashhad Municipalit MoreAbstract This study is to use a library and comparative analysis method for ranking the criteria affecting the optimal model in Mashhad municipal finance and then providing a scheme for the model developed. To get the goal, 23 people are selected in Mashhad Municipality officials and economic experts to complete the questionnaire. The data are analyzed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Expert Choice software. Finally, after weighting and ranking the criteria and decision options, a funding desired pattern is provided for Municipality of Mashhad in three Macro, medial and local levels. The results represent that renovation tax, building and land tax (except municipal consolidation taxes), value- added tax and the costs of utilities, are respectively the most important policy priorities on the stabilization of municipal revenues. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
324 - Dynamic Efficiency-Wage Model with Real Business Cycle
seyed fakhr aldin fakhrhoseiniThe purpose of this paper is to examine the cyclical consequences of Efficiency Wage theory when changing the workers efforts based on Dynamic Real Business Cycle model by using the data collected during 1966-2014. The equations are estimated through oleic approach (199 MoreThe purpose of this paper is to examine the cyclical consequences of Efficiency Wage theory when changing the workers efforts based on Dynamic Real Business Cycle model by using the data collected during 1966-2014. The equations are estimated through oleic approach (1999) as a space-state model in MATLAB context. The results represent that the increase of efforts variability to efficiency wage consideration causes the variables like production, consumption, labor and employment rate react less to technology shock. According to this model, higher level of workers efforts will lead to the increase of employment rate. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
325 - The Impacts of Regional and Global Integration on Foreign Direct Investment Inflow- Case Study of Persian Gulf Countries
seyed komeil Tayebi Batool Rafat Elham Nagheli Behrouz Sadeghi Amr abadiThe trade and investment relations have expanded substantially in globalization process among most developed and developing countries. The development has implemented in form of regional and global integrations affecting differently economies worldwide. The objective of MoreThe trade and investment relations have expanded substantially in globalization process among most developed and developing countries. The development has implemented in form of regional and global integrations affecting differently economies worldwide. The objective of this paper is to explore the effect of such integration on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in where countries where locate in the Persian Gulf, which are mostly oil producing. To this end, a panel econometric model has been specified and estimated using cross-section data of the selected countries in the region during 2001-2008. The empirical results indicate that regional trade integration leads the countries to increase FDI inflows, while they are faced with the inverse effects of discrepancies in culture and language on attracting FDI. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
326 - The Study of Maize Production Comparative Advantage in Iran
Comparative advantage strategy is based on an economic principle. The product comparative advantage is a criterion for estimating the social profitably of production activities. Regard to gravity maize production and its price fluctuate, the efficacy will be studied to MoreComparative advantage strategy is based on an economic principle. The product comparative advantage is a criterion for estimating the social profitably of production activities. Regard to gravity maize production and its price fluctuate, the efficacy will be studied to explain if maize production Social profitably, the government politic affections and exchange rate fluctuate on of maize production by policy analysis matrix from 2002-2003 to 2007-2008 in Iran agriculture according to the data extracted FAO site and documentations study. The policy analysis matrix exhibit represents that the comparative advantage is decreased. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
327 - Evaluation of The Effect of Increasing Oil World Price on PPI and CPI in Iran by Using Input-output Approach
M. S. M. M. Pourmehr Abstract The crude oil and its products as main resources of the production have main role in the setup of the world countries economy. So, the change of oil price has great impact on the production and consumption costs, and then changes goods and services pri More Abstract The crude oil and its products as main resources of the production have main role in the setup of the world countries economy. So, the change of oil price has great impact on the production and consumption costs, and then changes goods and services prices. This paper investigates the effects of oil world price changes through imports price index on goods price and domestic services indices by using VAR models and the data of the years 1980-2014 via input-output table of the year 2006 in Iran. The results obtained upon three scenarios (10, 20 and 30 percent of oil world price increase indicate that, PPI will rise 11%, 21.8%, 32.4% and CPI 9.3%, 18.5%, 27.4% in Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
328 - Relation Between Macroeconomic Variables and General Index in Tehran Stock Exchange
Stock exchange index is the most important factor in identifying the stock exchange of a country. The main purpose of the present research is to examine the relations between macroeconomic variables and general index of the stock exchange; hence More Stock exchange index is the most important factor in identifying the stock exchange of a country. The main purpose of the present research is to examine the relations between macroeconomic variables and general index of the stock exchange; hence, the basic question of the research is "Is there any relation between macroeconomic variables, including CPI, foreign exchange market rate, oil price and general index in Tehran Stock Exchange?" In order to examine hypotheses, we have used econometric methods, OSL Method, Linear Regression Model, Dicki Fuller and Philips Prone Model, Fisher Test and White Test during 2001-2008 quarterly. The results show that there is no statistical relation between CPI, foreign exchange market rate and general index in Tehran Stock Exchange; however, there is a statistical reverse relation between oil price and general index in Tehran Stock Exchange. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
329 - Price Index Convergence in Iran Provinces
Kiumars shahbazi Frooz fallahi Amir GholamiLower level of trade and non-trade barriers between different regions of a country raises the possibility of purchasing power parity theory and the law of one price within an intra-national context. Of course, it is possible due to economic and geographical conditions, MoreLower level of trade and non-trade barriers between different regions of a country raises the possibility of purchasing power parity theory and the law of one price within an intra-national context. Of course, it is possible due to economic and geographical conditions, the prices also be affected by local shocks. Therefore, it leads to the question "whether there is price convergence between different provinces and if any local shocks, what will be the half-life of convergence of provincial price indices? In this paper, we examine the convergence of the consumer price index across Iran provinces using panel unit root test and monthly data during 2002-2011. The results indicate that the convergence of provinces price indices depends on the choice of the numéraire province and by deviations from the law of one price based on a local shock, the convergence of half-life would be about 1.5 years. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
330 - Identification of Industrial Investment Priorities in Iran with Emphasis on Value-Added Growth
Mehdi Rezaee Khalil Heidari Parisa YaghobiThe purpose of this paper is to identify the priorities of investment in manufacturing activities in Iran, which would lead to more value-added growth. To do it, the production function of 92 manufacturing activities of the country at the level of the four-digit ISIC co MoreThe purpose of this paper is to identify the priorities of investment in manufacturing activities in Iran, which would lead to more value-added growth. To do it, the production function of 92 manufacturing activities of the country at the level of the four-digit ISIC code estimated by the data panel method in econometrics for the period 1996-2013. Then by calculating the elasticity of the production to the capital level in these industries and the effect of the capital changes on the value-added of them, the prioritizing has been done. The results show that industrial mining sectors and their downstream manufacturing activities in Iran would create more value-added via one unit investment than other manufacturing activities. These activities are important for the country, because they process the country's mineral products and convert them into more value-added products, and the findings of this paper emphasize the importance of the investing in these industries. Based on the results, it is recommended that investment should be targeted in industrial mining sectors and their downstream manufacturing activities. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
331 - Economic Growth in the Middle East Countries
amirreza souri mohammad hassan sabouri deilami javad attaranThe purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between crude oil demand and economic growth in Middle East by panel unit root and co-integration developed techniques during 1980-2007. By developing a model, the crude oil demand, oil price and GDP and their gro MoreThe purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between crude oil demand and economic growth in Middle East by panel unit root and co-integration developed techniques during 1980-2007. By developing a model, the crude oil demand, oil price and GDP and their growth rates will be explained. In continue, we are going to estimate two various models for oil demand function and the effect of economic growth on Middle East oil demand. The findings represent that the demand function is asymmetric in respect to price and income. Also, economic growth rate is the most important factor for increasing crude oil consumption in Middle East countries. On the other hand, these countries’ oil demand elasticity based upon the price and income is low, but income elasticity is higher than price. However, the findings suggest that oil demand is more important than economic growth. It is because of these countries’ disability in replacing crude oil by new energy sources. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
332 - Assessment of Factors Affecting on the Visitors' WTP and Evaluating Recreational Importance of Jajroud Area
Bahram Sahabi Mohammadhadi Hajian Bakhtiar JavaheriThe purpose of this paper is to estimate recreational value of Jajroud area and to determine factors affecting on the visitors willing to pay by using Contingent Valuation Method. To this end, a Double-Bounded Dichotomous Choice questionnaire is employed to collect the MoreThe purpose of this paper is to estimate recreational value of Jajroud area and to determine factors affecting on the visitors willing to pay by using Contingent Valuation Method. To this end, a Double-Bounded Dichotomous Choice questionnaire is employed to collect the data required by the use of a simple random sampling. Then, the role and importance of individual, social and economical factors will be investigated as well as the willingness to pay of visitors by Logit model and Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. Results indicate that more than 70 percent of respondents like to pay for recreational values of Jajroud area. In addition, the results of Logit model present that the variables of bid, age and size of families have significant negative effect on the individuals' WTP, while the variables of education, income, area attractiveness and individual concerns of environment have significant positive impact on WTP. Moreover, the optimum bid is about 5700 Rials and the annual recreational value of region is 4595 million Rials. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
333 - Designing an Optimal Resource Allocation Model in Iran's Banking System
ali asghar movahed asghar abolhasani mohamad hosin porkazemi yeghane mosavi jahromiThe aim of this paper is to model allocation of resources based on a stochastic dynamic optimization model in the banking system of Iran. To this end, using the bank level data by the Euler-Marviam simulation method, simulation of resource allocation model and optimal a MoreThe aim of this paper is to model allocation of resources based on a stochastic dynamic optimization model in the banking system of Iran. To this end, using the bank level data by the Euler-Marviam simulation method, simulation of resource allocation model and optimal allocation time Resources were obtained numerically over the course of the 24-month period. The results showed that important variables such as expected rate of profit, profit risk and fluctuation of each type of facility have a significant impact on their share. Also, the findings show that whatever the expected profit of the facility increases and the risk and fluctuation of it decreases, it will account for more share of the various types of facilities. Based on the results, the specialized entry of banks to participatory facilities and increase their share is proposed to increase profitability. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
334 - The Effects of Mining Sector and Mining Industries Development on Government Revenue and Income of Households in Iran
davoud behboudi mohammad mehdi barghi oskoee Robab Mohammadi khaneghahiAbstract The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of an increase in the investment and productivity of the mining sector on government revenue and income of households in Iran. For this respect, a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model and socia MoreAbstract The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of an increase in the investment and productivity of the mining sector on government revenue and income of households in Iran. For this respect, a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model and social accounting matrix (SAM) for Iran for year 1390 is used. The results showed that increasing in mining sector investment and improving its total factor productivity positively affected government revenue and income of households in both urban and rural groups. The results also reveal that the development in the mining sector in Iran has the least effect on the income of rural households and the most effect on income of urban households. Based on the results, it is necessary for policymakers to adopt policies to increase investment and improve the total factor productivity of the mining sector. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
335 - The Effective Factors on Iran's Tea Supply (Case Study: Gilan Province)
Mahsa Lobabi Mirghavami shahriar nessabian saeed yazdaniThe purpose of this paper is estimation of the effective factors on tea supply in Gilan province by using time series data during 1981-2011 in the form of nerlove model. According to the results, explanatory variables of the model could describe 97 percent of dependent MoreThe purpose of this paper is estimation of the effective factors on tea supply in Gilan province by using time series data during 1981-2011 in the form of nerlove model. According to the results, explanatory variables of the model could describe 97 percent of dependent variable (product supply) changes. The results show that the guaranteed price index of green tea leaf with elasticity 0.81 has more sensitive. In addition, tea supply with a lag and having elasticity 0.60, as well as, technology with elasticity 0.14 are the most effective factors on tea supply. Due to the elasticity coefficient of tea imports and the amount of rainfall, which are -0.024 and 0.029 respectively, these two variables did not affect the tea supply significantly. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
336 - The Participation of Married Women in Iranian Labor Market: Logit non-linear modeling
Z. Sarani B. Keshte gar Gh. Keshavarz hadadAbstract In the present paper, logit non-linear massive model is presented by using the maximum likelihood method for binary model of Iranian female labor participation based on income-expenditure data of the households in 2006. In logit non-linear model, a continuous MoreAbstract In the present paper, logit non-linear massive model is presented by using the maximum likelihood method for binary model of Iranian female labor participation based on income-expenditure data of the households in 2006. In logit non-linear model, a continuous mathematical function like power, exponential, polynomial and logarithmic are used for independent variables such as husband income, education, woman age, wealth and the number of children above and under 6 years old. Non-linear equation of married women participation based on econometric comparison standards like White Test and Lagrange coefficient statistics is compared with parametric and non-parametric Logit models. The results of modeling represent that the selection of an appropriate mathematical function can provide a suitable flexibility in binary modeling and so increase the ability and decrease the errors of the modeling compared to parametric and non-parametric logit models. Also, this kind of modeling approach has a variance homogeneity as well as non-parametric model, but here there is less error in modeling. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
337 - Effects of Military Costs on Eliminating Foreign Debts in Developing Countries
In developing countries, the amount of foreign debts is high, while their military costs have been increased in recent decades. In this article, the effects of military costs and national income on foreign debts have been investigated in 77 developing countries during 1 MoreIn developing countries, the amount of foreign debts is high, while their military costs have been increased in recent decades. In this article, the effects of military costs and national income on foreign debts have been investigated in 77 developing countries during 1993-2007, using GMM. Results show military cost has positive effect (0.33) and national income has negative effect (-0.38) on foreign debts. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
338 - The Relationship between Inflation Gap Persistence and Central Bank Monetary Policy through 1st to 4th Economic, Social and Cultural Development Programs in Iran
alireza erfani samira moradiIn this paper, the aim is to investigate the relationship between Taylor rule for monetary policy and inflation gap persistence in a simple new Keynesian model. This rule is a function of inflation and production gap specifying the weights to these two variables. By est MoreIn this paper, the aim is to investigate the relationship between Taylor rule for monetary policy and inflation gap persistence in a simple new Keynesian model. This rule is a function of inflation and production gap specifying the weights to these two variables. By estimating these weights via a simultaneous equation system and seasonal data during 1368-1389, the relationship has been investigated between four development programs.According to the results obtained, inflation gap is not persistent in none of the development programs and so there is no significant relationship between inflation gap persistence and the weights of inflation and production gap in monetary policy. That is, the increase and decrease of persistence parameter is under the effect of economy structure of the country. Lack of a significant relationship indicates the imprecision of monetary policy implemented by Central Bank and the failure of the impact of this policy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
339 - Investigating the Economic and Welfare Effects of the Water Market: A Positive Mathematical Programming Model Approach
fatemeh esmaelnia balagatabi ahmad sarlak hadi ghaffariIn this study, the aim is to identify the economic and welfare effects of forming the water market in the Varamin region. Changes in the area under aquaculture, gross profit in two situations (water market and lack of water market) during 2011-2016 were calculated and c MoreIn this study, the aim is to identify the economic and welfare effects of forming the water market in the Varamin region. Changes in the area under aquaculture, gross profit in two situations (water market and lack of water market) during 2011-2016 were calculated and compared using GAMS software and positive mathematical programming model. The results show that the establishment of the water market would have a positive and incremental effect on the gross profit of farmers in the region. Also, Cultivation of crops such as wheat, rice, barley, cucumber and potatoes, tomatoes and garlic has been more profitable and more crops can be planted. Based on the results, it is suggested that the government provide private-sector participation through investment and financial incentives. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
340 - Impact of Fiscal Policy Shocks on Cyclical and Structural Budget Balance in OPEC Member Countries
marzieh dindarrostami Shamsollah Shirinbakhsh Zahra AfshariAbstract The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of fiscal policy shocks on the actual, cyclical and structural budget balance in OPEC countries during the period 1980-2015. For this purpose, by separating the budget balance into two cyclical and structural MoreAbstract The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of fiscal policy shocks on the actual, cyclical and structural budget balance in OPEC countries during the period 1980-2015. For this purpose, by separating the budget balance into two cyclical and structural variables, using the Panel Structural Vector Auto Regression approach, which it presented in Pedroni (2013), as well as separation structural shocks into two common and idiosyncratic shocks among OPEC countries, the effect of fiscal policy is examine. Regarding the results, the effect of expenditures fiscal policy on the actual and structural budget has been positive and the effect of tax policy has been negative in theory. Based on the results, the need to pay attention to automatic stabilization and the use of monetary policy to deal with economic problems, rather than applying discretionary fiscal policy, are advisable. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
341 - The Impact of Environmental Regulations on Industry Competitiveness: Evidence from Manufacturing Industries of USA, U.K & Canada
somaye azami mojtaba almasi afsaneh golmohammadiThis study investigates the effects of environmental regulations on manufacturing industries of the selected OECD countries (USA, U.K & Canada) using Porter Hypothesis (PH) and structure- conduct- performance- Paradigm (SCPP) during 1970-2013, by regarding to simult MoreThis study investigates the effects of environmental regulations on manufacturing industries of the selected OECD countries (USA, U.K & Canada) using Porter Hypothesis (PH) and structure- conduct- performance- Paradigm (SCPP) during 1970-2013, by regarding to simultaneous equations, and considering interoperability among market elements.Pollution Abatement Capital Expenditures (PACE) and environmental innovations are substitute variables for environmental regulations and competitiveness subsequently. The results show that increased industries expenditure to reduce emissions significantly increases their innovations and this proves Weak Porter Hypothesis (WPH) indicating positive impact of environmental regulation on competitiveness of the industries. Therefore, environmental regulations promote not only environmental quality, but also improve the industries competitiveness. The results, also, confirm the view that environmental policies are a win-win strategy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
342 - Credit Ranking of Parsian Bank legal Customers
In this research we are going to develop a model for evaluating the credit risk and credit ranking by customers in Parsian Bank by the help of the Logit and Probit regression and GMDH neural network methods. This model will be based on the qualitative and financial data MoreIn this research we are going to develop a model for evaluating the credit risk and credit ranking by customers in Parsian Bank by the help of the Logit and Probit regression and GMDH neural network methods. This model will be based on the qualitative and financial data a random sample of 400 customers receiving credit facilities. After analysis the credit files of each customers, we identified 11 explanatory variables including qualitative and financial aspects as follows: the type of security the type of the workplace owner ship, cooperation background, capital, current ratio, quick ratio, the ratio of current assent to total assents total asset turn over, turnover, current capital turnover, dept ratio an stock holder equity ratio that have significant impart on credit risk. The finding of the study corroborate the economic and financial theories of affection factors influencing credit risk, indicate that neural network model produce mare efficient and precise results than the other popular economic models like Logit and Probit. Also, a money explanatory variables, the type of collateral and dept ratio have the most effect, cooperation background, current ratio, stock holder equity have usual effect and the rest variables are less affection. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
343 - Economic Modeling of Agricultural Water Resource Management in Tehran Province with Emphasis on the Role of Water Market
Abolfazl Mahmoudi Abozar ParhizkariIn present study the formation effects of local and regional water markets in Tehran province were investigated and the potential of water transfer under water scarcity conditions in this province were analyzed. For this purpose, an economic modeling including positive MoreIn present study the formation effects of local and regional water markets in Tehran province were investigated and the potential of water transfer under water scarcity conditions in this province were analyzed. For this purpose, an economic modeling including positive mathematical programming (PMP) model and state wide agricultural production (SWAP) functions were used. The results showed that with establishment of the local and regional water markets in Tehran province; in addition to creation the balance between supply and demand of irrigation water and equilibrate the water trading between the studied regions, total irrigated lands 7/41% and total farmers’ gross profit 9/27% are increased. Finally, due to the supportive and constructive role of local and regional water markets, providing the required grounds to establishment and optimal use of this type of mechanism in Tehran province and other regions of the country where have shared water resources are suggested. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
344 - Comprehensive Biophysical-Economic Modeling of Climate and Agriculture (Case Study: Roodshour Watershed)
Abouzar Parhizkari gholamreza yavari abolfazl mahmoodi gholamreza bakhshi khanikiIn this study using panel dataset (combining the time series data related to the climatic variables of rainfall during 1986-2016 and the cross sectional data related to the base year 2015-2016) the comprehensive biophysical-economic modeling of climate and agriculture i MoreIn this study using panel dataset (combining the time series data related to the climatic variables of rainfall during 1986-2016 and the cross sectional data related to the base year 2015-2016) the comprehensive biophysical-economic modeling of climate and agriculture in Roodshour watershed basin was studied. In order to achieve the applied results, modeling is done by combining two parts of the biophysical (the products yield estimation model) and the economic (positive mathematical programming model) under mild, moderate and severe testing scenarios and with advanced programming in the GAMS 24.7 software environment. The results show that after year 2001, behavioral pattern of rainfall climate variable was accompanied with a decreasing trend in the Roodeshoor basin. With occurrence of the climate change resulting from rainfall reduction under mild, medium and intense scenarios, the available water resources decreased 5/75 to 13/8 percent, agricultural products decreased 3/60 to 8/54 percent and farmers' gross profit decreased 2/71 to 8/04 percent. But the economic value of irrigation water increases 5/13 to 12/7 percent ratio to base year. Finally, in order to protection of the water resources in the Roodeshoor basin and coping with the effects of climate change, Redetermination of the rate of water charge to farmers on the basis of equality consideration, fallow-lands and equipping farms to modern irrigation systems were proposed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
345 - Study of the Relation between Performance and Rate of Concentration and Innovation in Iran Industries by Using PVAR Regression Models
reza yousefi hajiabad farhad khodadad kashiThe main goal of this paper is to investigate the relation between industry performance, market structure and innovation in Iran manufacturing industries. For this purpose, the performance of 130 different industrial groups will be analyzed and discussed by Panel Vector MoreThe main goal of this paper is to investigate the relation between industry performance, market structure and innovation in Iran manufacturing industries. For this purpose, the performance of 130 different industrial groups will be analyzed and discussed by Panel Vector Auto Regressive Regression (PVAR) and Generalized Model of Moment GMM based on International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) during 1996-2010. The findings represent that industry performancehassignificant and stable effects on Market concentration. Also, the results of Impulse-Response Functions indicate that Structure Shocks affect the profitability of Iran manufacturing sector in short run, but market structure is not related to profitability in long run. The study of Variance Decomposition and R&D activities explain most variations in market structure and market Concentration. However, the profitability is affected by concentration and R&D activities. It has most effects on the variations of R&D activities. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
346 - The Effect of Incentive Programs and Export Supports on the Trade of Agricultural Products
Hasan Azimi Mahmood YahyazadehfarCurrent study aims to investigate the effect of incentive programs on trade and export model of agricultural products. To do this, agricultural products will be divided into 3 categories by various ratios of export awards. Then, the influence of export awards on the pro MoreCurrent study aims to investigate the effect of incentive programs on trade and export model of agricultural products. To do this, agricultural products will be divided into 3 categories by various ratios of export awards. Then, the influence of export awards on the product export model will be analyzed 5 years before and 8 years after implementing export award policy during 1997- 2000. To investigate the effect of awards provided on the trade model, 24 agricultural products are divided 3 groups. The first group includes products in which no award is provided. The second group received 1.5 percent or less subsides and the last one received more than 1.5 percent of subsides. Multi-variance analysis reveals that there is no significant difference between the first and second groups (no award and less than 1.5 percent of awards). However, there is a significant difference between the third (more than 1.5 percent award), the first and the second ones. In the other words, to make effective the export awards and incentives, higher than cut-off level awards are required. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
347 - The Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on the Output Indicators of Tehran Stock Exchange
Abstract The aim of this paper is to evaluate the macroeconomic variables on Tehran stock exchange by using cointegration method and seasonal data during 1998 – 2008. The estimation with 5 indicators for stock output (cash return, stock price index, and cash ret MoreAbstract The aim of this paper is to evaluate the macroeconomic variables on Tehran stock exchange by using cointegration method and seasonal data during 1998 – 2008. The estimation with 5 indicators for stock output (cash return, stock price index, and cash return and stock price index, industrial price index and financial price index) represent that Gross Domestic Product, money stock and liquidity are the main effective variables on the return of stock market. Coin is a week substitution for the stock exchange but, exchange rate and housing, based on selected indicator for stock exchange, affect the return of stock exchange. Although, the impact of real interest rate is negative, but it is not stable. Also, the findings show that periodical election influences the return of stock exchange. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
348 - Analysis of Home Market Effect: with Emphasis on Foreign Trade behavior Iran’s Manufacturing Sector
ali falahati mojtaba almasi yahya goliAbstract The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the home market effect hypothesis on Iran's industry. Accordingly, International Standard Industry Classification (ISIC) two‐digit data of the Iranian industry sector and five major trading partners from 2001 to 2014 MoreAbstract The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the home market effect hypothesis on Iran's industry. Accordingly, International Standard Industry Classification (ISIC) two‐digit data of the Iranian industry sector and five major trading partners from 2001 to 2014 and the general equilibrium model with the assumption of incomplete competition have been used. The estimation results showed that the home market effect on the total industry has been confirmed. The results also showed that home market effect was positive in 17 out of 21 studied sectors. Therefore, the expansion of domestic demand in various industrial sectors with protectionism of competitiveness along with the strengthening of intra-industry trade with similar demand structure countries can provide a platform for better penetration in international markets and lead to sustainable growth of industrial exports in the country. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
349 - Evaluating the Effectiveness of Research Activities in Islamic Azad University Branches by Using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)
naghi shoja mohammad hosein darvish motevaliAbstract Given that the mission of Research Department of all universities and research institutions is to write and edit the research activities and develop or produce new sciences and change it into new technology, the evaluation of their research performance is ver MoreAbstract Given that the mission of Research Department of all universities and research institutions is to write and edit the research activities and develop or produce new sciences and change it into new technology, the evaluation of their research performance is very important. In this paper, the performance of the research department in selected branches of Islamic Azad University is measured and compared in 3 periods during 2010-2013 by using without input model of DEA. So, 5 important research indicators are determined and considered based on DEMATEL technique. The Performance of the branches are calculated by a without input model of DEA and GAMS software and then ranked by Anderson-Peterson ranking method. During the first period, 4 branches including Takestan, Karaj, Firouzkouh and Varamin are efficient. During the second period, 5 branches Parand, Takestan, Roudehen, Karaj and Firouzkouh are efficient and at last, 4 branches are highly efficient during third period, naming Parand, Takestan, Qazvin and Firouzkouh. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
350 - The Effect of Government Size on Economic Growth by Emphasizing on Army Curve: A Case Study in Iran
Hosein Panahi Ramiar RefaeeThis article reviews the relationship between the government spending and economic growth and by estimating the optimal size of government tries to examine the relationship between government size and economic growth in Iran and analyze the presence and shape of the&nbs MoreThis article reviews the relationship between the government spending and economic growth and by estimating the optimal size of government tries to examine the relationship between government size and economic growth in Iran and analyze the presence and shape of the Army Curve. It is expected that the results obtained in the context of Iran could be of relevance to other developing countries or at least to those with similar economic structure or size. Moreover, this study performs an empirical test of popular phenomenon of the Armey curve using a time series and data set during 1964-2006 in Iran. The results show that the relationship between government size and economic growth, in the long term and short-term, is positive and non-linear. It is also found that the current size is larger than the size of government optimal in long-term and short term. It is necessary to decrease the size of government. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
351 - Effects of the Targeted Subsidy Plan on Gasoline Consumption in Iran
n this article the effects of the changes in the gas price on its consumption in Iran have been investigated during 1971-2008 by applying VAR method. The variables include real gas price, gas consumption, GDP (non-oil) and the number of automobiles. The results of the r Moren this article the effects of the changes in the gas price on its consumption in Iran have been investigated during 1971-2008 by applying VAR method. The variables include real gas price, gas consumption, GDP (non-oil) and the number of automobiles. The results of the reaction functions show that gas consumption is slightly decreased at the first steps of price changes, but will be increased within a short period of time. Furthermore, the number of automobiles and GDP (non-oil) are variables, having significant, positive effects on gas consumption in Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
352 - Relation between Exports Incomes of Companies Accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange and their Stock Return
erfan memarian seyed ali nabavi chashmi soheila ghrbani mojtaba matanThis research tried to study the relation between the exports incomes of companies accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange and their share outputs in of petro-chemical industry. For this purpose, the information related to the above variables was collected during 1999-2008. B MoreThis research tried to study the relation between the exports incomes of companies accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange and their share outputs in of petro-chemical industry. For this purpose, the information related to the above variables was collected during 1999-2008. By using econometric approaches, specially, Johnson Collective Test and Vector Error Correction Model, the reciprocal relation of the variables was examined. The findings of Johnson Collected Test represented a long run mutual relation between the variables of the model mentioned. The results of Vector Error Correction Model Test explained that there is unilateral and direct relation between income gained by share outputs and the output of petro-chemical industry Stock has relatively less elasticity than the exports of this industry. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
353 - The Relationship Between Investment in Housing Sector and Business Cycles During 1959-2006 in Iran
In this article, the effect of investment in housing sector on business cycles in Iran economy during 1959 to 2006 will be investigated. At first, by using gross domestic product variable, the long run trend and business cycle in Iran is going to be found out by H MoreIn this article, the effect of investment in housing sector on business cycles in Iran economy during 1959 to 2006 will be investigated. At first, by using gross domestic product variable, the long run trend and business cycle in Iran is going to be found out by Hodrick-Prescott filter and then VAR model and impulse response function to study the effects of housing sector investment shock and the number of affecting periods on business cycle. The results represent that: 1- run test indicates that the gross domestic product’s fluctuations in Iran follow a regular pattern and they can be studied in business cycle patterns and 2- investment in housing sector can anticipate the future business cycle fluctuations and a positive shock may affect business cycle for 3 years. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
354 - Optimal Budget Modeling for Technical and Vocational Training Organization
zarir negintaji akbar zamanzadehAbstract Technical and Vocational Training Organization considers the improvement and promotion of financial resource efficiency as one of the main strategies to implement a comprehensive system of skills and technology across the country. Therefore, the identification MoreAbstract Technical and Vocational Training Organization considers the improvement and promotion of financial resource efficiency as one of the main strategies to implement a comprehensive system of skills and technology across the country. Therefore, the identification of influential factors in the financial resource allocation is very crucial for policy makers and managers in the organization. This is the main objective of this research. Statistical society includes all provincial departments of vocational training used in this study during 2012-2013. The methodology is based on Panel Data.The results represent allocating financial resource to vocational and technical training centers in provinces should consider five influential variables, namely unemployment, educational commitment, number of instructors and staffs, and finally, number of workshops. This means that the allocation of financial resources in provinces must be done according to the coefficients %15, %26, %30, %28 and %4 respectively, based on unemployment rate, responsible training hours, number of instructors, number of administrative staffs and number of workshops. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
355 - Study of Relationship between Food Security with Urban Population and Development Plans in Iran
jalal salemThe purpose of this study is investigating the food security among the Iranian's urban households and effective factors involved for the period of 1983 to 2011. For this purpose, time series pattern used for evaluating the effective factors. The results showed that duri MoreThe purpose of this study is investigating the food security among the Iranian's urban households and effective factors involved for the period of 1983 to 2011. For this purpose, time series pattern used for evaluating the effective factors. The results showed that during the period the food security of urban households had an increasing trend. Despite the enhancement of food security among urban households, 5.1 percent of the urban population received less than necessary calorie level in 2011. The effect of the percentage of urban population on urban households' food security index has been negative, although not significant at an appropriate level. The lag variable of aggregate food security index changes on growth of aggregate food security index in the next year will be negative, so that increasing in one unit growth of food security index in one year; its growth will be decreased by 0.008 units in the next year. According to the results, the index stability and keeping its increasing trend should be considered as a priority in the future development plans. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
356 - Determining the Ranking of Industrial Investments in Gilan Province
Abdorrahim Hashemi Dizaj esmaeil sabouriThe main purpose of this study is to identify the capabilities and potentials of industrial sector in Gilan Province to direct the private sector investments toward these industries. For this purpose, we used a method mixed of factor analysis, numerical taxonomy, cluste MoreThe main purpose of this study is to identify the capabilities and potentials of industrial sector in Gilan Province to direct the private sector investments toward these industries. For this purpose, we used a method mixed of factor analysis, numerical taxonomy, cluster analysis by indexes related to the subject in industrial activities of the province during 2001-2009 in terms of ISIC (3rd Edition), and then by mixing the results obtained, the industries existing in province are divided in two priorities; the first and the second priority. Industrial activities related to the codes 152; production of dairies products, 171; spinning, knitting and completing textile, 172; production of other textile, 181; clothing production except the fur clothing, 201; sawing and grating of wood, 222; printing and service activities related to printing, 232; production of oil products refined, 242; other chemical products, 251; production of tire products except shoes, 281; production of metal construction products, reservoirs and steam generators, 343; production of motor vehicles parts and their motors and 361; production of furniture are the activities having next priorities in Gilan province to be invested. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
357 - The Effect of Information and Communication Technology on Health Economics
saeedeh karimzadegan parvaneh salatinAbstract The main objective of this paper is to analysis the impact of Information & Communication Technology)ICT( on the health economics among the selected middle-income countries. The results of fixed effects andGeneralized Method of Moments (GMM) models i MoreAbstract The main objective of this paper is to analysis the impact of Information & Communication Technology)ICT( on the health economics among the selected middle-income countries. The results of fixed effects andGeneralized Method of Moments (GMM) models in the period of 2000-2015 imply that; Mobile cellular subscriptions and the internet have significant and positive effects on the Health expenditure, in private sector among selected countries. If the Mobile cellular subscriptions and internet increased by one percent, Health expenditure in private will be increased 0.136928 & 0.032519 percent in average respectively. Based on the results, it is recommended that appropriate application of modern technologies should be culturalized through education for households, and also in schools and universities. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
358 - Recognizing the Periods of Developing and Collapsing Multi-Price Bubbles in Housing Market: Case Study of Tehran City
Roozbeh Baloonejad noori hamzeh safariAbstract The purpose of this study is to investigate the development and collapse of price bubbles of housing market in Tehran by the data of housing rents, land price during 1995:Q1-2014:Q1. Based on the critiques to the common methods of evaluating the price bubbles MoreAbstract The purpose of this study is to investigate the development and collapse of price bubbles of housing market in Tehran by the data of housing rents, land price during 1995:Q1-2014:Q1. Based on the critiques to the common methods of evaluating the price bubbles and the possibility of happening more than one bubble in the time period under consideration, in this study, Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller is used. By this method, it is possible to determine the development and collapse periods of price bubble in addition to test multiple bubbles,. The results represent that in the period under review, the ratio of price - rent as an indicator of return on assets, has no rational price bubbles. However, by the abruptly and explosively changing in defining the price, there will be a price bubble in housing during 3 periods including 2001:Q1- 2002:Q1, 2004:Q1- 2004:Q2, 2006:Q2- 2007:Q2 and 2006:Q2-2007:Q2 and so in land real prices during 3 periods including 2000:Q2-2001:Q2, 2006:Q2-2007:Q2 and 2012: Q1-2013:Q2. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
359 - The Effect of Good Governance on Human Development in Islamic and OECD Countries
S. N. Makiyan M. BibakAbstract Development is one of the most important goals in all countries. So, all countries try to achieve economic freedom, democracy, elimination of poverty and then economic development. Human Development approach considers the people as the real resources of any co MoreAbstract Development is one of the most important goals in all countries. So, all countries try to achieve economic freedom, democracy, elimination of poverty and then economic development. Human Development approach considers the people as the real resources of any country. In this research, it is tried to analyze the impact of good governance on Human Development Index in Islamic selected countries and OECD selected countries during 2005-2012 by using FGLS regression technique. To get the goal, some control variables are also selected for the model. The results represent that, in OECD countries, there is a significant positive relation between good governance and economic freedom and human development. However, in Islamic countries, there is not significant relation between these two variables in human development. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
360 - Total Factor Productivity of Khosh Noosh Beverage Company
naserali yadollahzadeh tabari seyedeh zahra khoshabiOne of the most important objectives of all economic Companies is to get maximum returns of available resources and to achieve high level of productivity. This study is done in order to measure the total factor productivity in Sari Khosh Noosh Company during 2003-2009 b MoreOne of the most important objectives of all economic Companies is to get maximum returns of available resources and to achieve high level of productivity. This study is done in order to measure the total factor productivity in Sari Khosh Noosh Company during 2003-2009 by using monthly data and production function. At first, we took the data of capital stock based on exponential trend. Then, different types of functions were estimated, and finally chose Cobb-Douglas production function as the best form. To guarantee avoiding spurious regression, co-integration tests are used. Ultimately, by using Kenderik index, we calculated the total factor productivity and its growth rate. The results explained that, during of this period, the total productivity of the company has decreased. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
361 - Theoretical Analysis of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC)
In this paper, we have tried to examine how EKC inverted U-shaped curve of economic growth and the environmental quality is created, based on the microeconomic theories and optimal dynamic situations. First, different ways of shaping EKC inverted U-shaped curve, based o MoreIn this paper, we have tried to examine how EKC inverted U-shaped curve of economic growth and the environmental quality is created, based on the microeconomic theories and optimal dynamic situations. First, different ways of shaping EKC inverted U-shaped curve, based on both static and dynamic models have been described, considering the said hypotheses and conditions. Findings show that people's preferences change during the process of economic growth is the main factor in creation of Kuznets curve. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
362 - Impact of Technological Progress and Efficiency Changes on the Productivity Growth of Iran Agriculture Sector: Data Envelopment Analysis
mahdi salarieh Amir Mohamadi Nejad Reza MoghaddasiThe aim of this paper is to study the impact of technological progress and efficiency changes on the productivity growth of Iran agriculture sector by separated provinces.So, by using Data Envelopment Analysis and Malmquist model, the impacts of technological and effici MoreThe aim of this paper is to study the impact of technological progress and efficiency changes on the productivity growth of Iran agriculture sector by separated provinces.So, by using Data Envelopment Analysis and Malmquist model, the impacts of technological and efficiency changes during 2005-2014 have been investigated. The results show that efficiency changes on the productivity growth has dominant role and technological changes share is less. The findings, also, showed that the impact of labor changes has a positive impact on productivity growth while capital changes have a negligible impact on the factors of production productivity. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
363 - Analyzing the Effects of Fiscal Decentralization and its Environmental Consequences in Iran Provinces
Azad Khanzadi maryam heidarian Sara MoradiAbstract This study analyzes fiscal decentralization policies and its environmental consequences, during the period 2005-2015. The results of GMM estimation show that revenue decentralization has negative and significant relationship with pollution. Also other variables MoreAbstract This study analyzes fiscal decentralization policies and its environmental consequences, during the period 2005-2015. The results of GMM estimation show that revenue decentralization has negative and significant relationship with pollution. Also other variables results indicate positive relationship between industrialization and energy productivity with pollution. By increasing the relative density of population, pollution is reduced. The results of Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis also indicate rejection of this hypothesis. In addition, presence of multiplication of the neighboring matrix in dependent variable causes an increase in pollution in the provincial level and this indicates the spatial environmental effects in the country's provinces. It is suggested that local governments determine their own financial resources, in this case it can be targeted and based on new revenue resources such as green economy, it can define businesses that which they reduce pollution. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
364 - Impact of Misery Index on Health Spending in Iran
abolfazl shahabadi mahya Ghorbani GolparvarHealth is one the main indicators of development and investment affecting directly on welfare and economic growth.The most important factors affecting economic growth are the labor, physical capital and human capital.Health is an indicator of human capital leading to an MoreHealth is one the main indicators of development and investment affecting directly on welfare and economic growth.The most important factors affecting economic growth are the labor, physical capital and human capital.Health is an indicator of human capital leading to an increase in labor productivity and thus economic growth.So, health expenditure is introduced an investment in human capital. One of the main challenges in health sector is to identify the factors determining the amount of resources devoted by a country to health care. The misery index is one of these factors.The aim of this study is to evaluate the role of misery index on health expenditure in Iran during 1971 to 2011.The results represent that there is a significant negative relationship between misery index and health expenditures.According to estimations, the government size estimated coefficient, urbanization rate and per capita income have a significant positive effect and education estimated coefficients and income inequality have a significant negative impact on health expenditure in Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
365 - Factors Affecting Bilateral Trade between Iran and Regional Blocks
Abstract In this paper we revisited the recent contribution study examines the determinants of bilateral trade between Iran and European Union,ECO, GCC and ASEAN countries in the period 1995-2009, using a dynamic panel data. The findings indicate that IRAN’ trade MoreAbstract In this paper we revisited the recent contribution study examines the determinants of bilateral trade between Iran and European Union,ECO, GCC and ASEAN countries in the period 1995-2009, using a dynamic panel data. The findings indicate that IRAN’ trade flows follow the Linder hypothesis. Results show that geographical distance is negative and significant; trade increases if the transportation costs decrease. We also introduce the economic dimension and income per-capita; these proxies confirm the positive effects in bilateral trade. Our results also confirm the hypothesis that foreign direct investment is positively correlated with trade. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
366 - Relationship between Capital Structure and Financial Performance by Concentrating on Business Cycles: An analysis of Debt/Stock-nexus Firms
yaser momeni taheri somaye sadeghiThis paper investigates the relationship between capital structure and financial performance for firms listed in Tehran stock market, by concentrate on the macroeconomic condition. In this order, we divided the firms to two groups by considering their financing Patterns MoreThis paper investigates the relationship between capital structure and financial performance for firms listed in Tehran stock market, by concentrate on the macroeconomic condition. In this order, we divided the firms to two groups by considering their financing Patterns, including firms that main share of their financing is through stock (the stock-nexus) and firms that main share of their financing is through debt (the debt-nexus). The GMM results show that capital structure has a negative and significant effect on firm performance. Of course, this negative effect is greater for the debt- nexus firms. Also, the happening of economic recession intensifies the negative effects of capital structure on performance in the debt-nexus firms. It means that at economic recession circumstances, the stock-nexus firms have better performance than the debt- nexus firms. Hence, we suggest that firms should apply more stock in their financing patterns to keep them in facing of economic recession. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
367 - The Relationship between Total Factor Productivity and Labor Productivity in Iran
This paper investigate the long-run relationship between the total factor productivity and the labor productivity in Iran during 1970-2007 and use Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) and Bound tests approaches. Results explain that there is a mutual long-run relation MoreThis paper investigate the long-run relationship between the total factor productivity and the labor productivity in Iran during 1970-2007 and use Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) and Bound tests approaches. Results explain that there is a mutual long-run relationship between total factor productivity and labor productivity, and total factor productivity and labor productivity have positive and significant effect on each other. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
368 - Convergence between Financial Development and Industrial Production in Iran
The relationship between financial markets and economic growth depends on factors such as financial deepening; fiscal and monetary policies. The aim of this study is analyzing the long-term relationship and convergence between financial development and the growth of ind MoreThe relationship between financial markets and economic growth depends on factors such as financial deepening; fiscal and monetary policies. The aim of this study is analyzing the long-term relationship and convergence between financial development and the growth of industrial sector during 1974-2008. Using ARDL and ECM methods, the results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and the growth of industrial sector. Our finding demonstrates the necessity of applying suitable policies to allocate credits and create competitive opportunities in financial markets in order to improve the process of allocating financial resources to the industrial sector. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
369 - Estimating of Natural Gas Supply and Demand in Iran and predicting them for 2025
In this paper, the major variables affecting the supply and demand of natural gas in Iran are introduced and by using the OLS technique, the natural gas supply and demand models are estimated in the forms of ARIMA. Short term income and price elasticities a More In this paper, the major variables affecting the supply and demand of natural gas in Iran are introduced and by using the OLS technique, the natural gas supply and demand models are estimated in the forms of ARIMA. Short term income and price elasticities are 0.44 and 0.084 and long -term income and price elasticities are 8.8 and 1.68 .The short -term and long term elasticities of natural gas supply to natural gas export are 0.13 and 0.25. Using the estimated models and in 3 scenarios, natural gas supply and demand are predicted for the year 2025. In the first scenario natural gas supply and demand growth rates will be 3.5 and 4.5 percent per yearly. In the second scenario the annual growth rate of natural gas supply and demand will be 3.9 and 3.6 percent, and, finally, in the third scenario, these growth rates will be 2.1 and 3.51 percent. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
370 - Determination of The Price Transmission Mechanism in Shrimp Market of Iran (Application of Bivariate GARCH Model)
ali akbar baghestani reza rahimiAbstract The main objective of this paper is determination of the price transmission mechanism in shrimp market of Iran by using bivariate GARCH model. The monthly data during 1380:1-1394:4 was used. The results indicated that the rate of change in retail prices is part MoreAbstract The main objective of this paper is determination of the price transmission mechanism in shrimp market of Iran by using bivariate GARCH model. The monthly data during 1380:1-1394:4 was used. The results indicated that the rate of change in retail prices is partially causes changes in wholesale prices. So that one unit increase in the retail price index would increase less than one unit (0.2 units) Wholesale Price Index. Therefore, the price transmission in shrimp market is imperfect. The result of Houck method indicated that price transmission in the shrimp market is asymmetric and, speed of transmission in increasing price is more than decreasing prices. Therefore, according to the policy of reforming Shrimp imperfect market, the government must attended to non-price supporting Policies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
371 - Impact of Fleet Renovation on the Productivity of Iran’s Road Transportation Industry
farhad khodadad kashi samaneh nourani azad bahareh ghanbari The main purpose of this article is to evaluation the impact of fleet renovation on productivity of Iran’s road transportation industry. To meet this ends the data of the Iranian road transportation and the capital-embodied technical progress g More The main purpose of this article is to evaluation the impact of fleet renovation on productivity of Iran’s road transportation industry. To meet this ends the data of the Iranian road transportation and the capital-embodied technical progress growth model were used during 1353-1393. The results of capital inventory and labor coefficients showed that the return to scale in the Iran’s road transportation was constant. Also, in this sector, new investment and renovation increased moreover the average age of the fleet reduced and it has resulted to the growth rate of qualitative capital and productivity increased. Therefore, in Iran's road transportation, the direct relationship between fleet renovation and productivity is confirmed. So, the use of superior technology equipment and the replacement of fleets by new and advanced fleets are recommended. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
372 - The Usefulness of Voluntary Disclosure to Investors' Judgment
mohsen hamidian zohreh hajiha nafise taghizadeThe purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the usefulness of voluntary disclosure based on the macro components of the International Accounting Standards Board and the judgment of investors in the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange MoreThe purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the usefulness of voluntary disclosure based on the macro components of the International Accounting Standards Board and the judgment of investors in the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period of 2011 and 2015. To this end, 127 companies were selected using systematic elimination sampling method and tested using the Mechelli, Cimini and Mazzocchetti model. A checklist to measure the voluntary disclosure of companies with five dimensions of business nature, goals, business strategies, resources, risks and communications, results of company operations and performance measurement criteria was used. The findings show that, in general, voluntary disclosure of the main components of the business model provides a higher value relation than the limited disclosure components. Based on these findings, it is suggested that corporate executives with more attention to these indicators provide more precise conditions for users of financial statements. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
373 - Investigating Heckscher-Ohlin Theory in Iran-Germany International Trade: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach
sara pandazmay seyed Abdolmajid Jalaee Mohsen Zayandeh RoodiAbstract The study of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory is crucial for countries seeking comparative advantage, taking into account the production methods and technology of these countries. Iran also needs to develop a model for the production and export of goods, as well as i MoreAbstract The study of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory is crucial for countries seeking comparative advantage, taking into account the production methods and technology of these countries. Iran also needs to develop a model for the production and export of goods, as well as imports of materials and goods, in order to develop and develop its trade relations with Germany. To achieve this, the effect of the relative abundance of labor and capital on the exports of both countries of Iran and Germany is studied in the form of a computable general equilibrium model and the use of the GTAP software. The results of various scenarios show that in the sectors of agriculture, industry and mining, services and oil and gas, which indicate the sectors of oil and non-oil exports in the economy of Iran and Germany, exports of services and industry and mining sectors, respectively, have the greatest effect on economic growth of both Country has Accordingly, it is proposed to accelerate the economic growth in both countries by focusing on strengthening non-oil exports, with emphasis on industrial and service exports. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
374 - Real Business Cycles Model with Habits Formation: A Resolution of the Equity Premium Puzzle
Seyed Fakhreddin FakhrhoseiniIn economic literature, habits formation has been succeed in reproducing some of the historical financial information and it can simplify the difficulties pertaining to simulating financial markets variables and business cycles. The aim in this paper is investigating pe MoreIn economic literature, habits formation has been succeed in reproducing some of the historical financial information and it can simplify the difficulties pertaining to simulating financial markets variables and business cycles. The aim in this paper is investigating performance of habits formation while inseparability between consumption and leisure. The data are related to the constant prices in 1383 and annually from 1966 to 2014. So, the variables were been detrended after taking logarithm of the variables by using Hodrick- Prescott filter. The final model equations have been specified around the linearized stabled situation through the Ohlig (1999) approach for linearized stochastic equations, in the form of a space-state model in Matlab programming. The results show that adding habits formation parameter can increase the Sharpe ratio or no risky asset fluctuations and inseparability between consumption and leisure can help explain the equity premium puzzle. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
375 - The Persistence of Inflation in Iran: A Fractionally Integrated Approach
hosein amiri aliasghar salem marjaneh beshkhorThe aim of this paper is to analyzing the persistency of inflation in Iran by using a general approach, with the goal of providing a plausible and acceptable explanation. For this, the inflation rate of Iran in period 1937-2016 and on the base of fractionally integrated MoreThe aim of this paper is to analyzing the persistency of inflation in Iran by using a general approach, with the goal of providing a plausible and acceptable explanation. For this, the inflation rate of Iran in period 1937-2016 and on the base of fractionally integrated (FI) approach was modeled and in the later phase inflation memory parameter has been estimated by using classic methods (the Geweke and Porter-Hudak semi parametric method nonlinear least squares, exact maximum likelihood, and a minimum distance estimator) and Bayesian methods. The results of the estimation in both methods show that the inflation rate in Iran is stable. Stability of inflation rates has important implications for policy-making, especially monetary policy, so that due to the impact of economic shocks on inflation, its effects will be last for a long time. Therefore, it is necessary to policy makers identify the major sources of distorting inflation, including dependence on oil resources, no attention to the role and function of the reserve fund, the government budget deficit, central bank dependence and the existence of structural problems and consider appropriate approaches in this field. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
376 - Investigating the Effects of Governmental Expenditure Shock on Gross Domestic Product Growth in Iran: ARDL Approach
jafar haghighat nazila moharam joudiThe aim of this paper is investigating the effects of governmental expenditure shock on GDP in Iran’s economy. In order to achieve this aim, at first, the model of effective factors on governmental expenditure has been explained, and governmental expenditure MoreThe aim of this paper is investigating the effects of governmental expenditure shock on GDP in Iran’s economy. In order to achieve this aim, at first, the model of effective factors on governmental expenditure has been explained, and governmental expenditure shock is captured by the model residuals. Then the model of effective factors on GDP is estimated from 1971 to 2014. In estimating the models, autoregressive distributed Lag (ARDL) approach has been used. According to the results, the effect of governmental current expenditure on GDP is not significant. But lagged government expenditure shock has a positive and significant impact on GDP. Error correction term is negative and significant, and indicates that when a shock occurs, 12 percent of short term imbalance is adjusted each period, to reach the long term equilibrium. It is purposed to government not to increase own expenditure, since this can cause an inverse relationship between government expenditure and GDP and it reduces economic growth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
377 - Customers' Credit Risk Evaluation Using LINMAP Analysis (A Case Study on an Iranian Commercial Bank)
Seyed Ali Naji Esfahani Mohammad Ali RastegarAbstract The aim of this paper is evaluation and forecasting of credit risk of the companies that were applied for a loan in a commercial bank in Iran. So, by using cross-section random sampling by having 75% of total data as an in-sample and 25% as out-sample and also MoreAbstract The aim of this paper is evaluation and forecasting of credit risk of the companies that were applied for a loan in a commercial bank in Iran. So, by using cross-section random sampling by having 75% of total data as an in-sample and 25% as out-sample and also by using LINMAP model, financial statements and their performance in the bank were investigated during 1389-1393. The results indicate the efficiency of the method for forecasting credit behavior of the bank's customers. Considering the method advantages including its independence to the companies' financial background and precision in forecasting relative to prevailing methods, it is recommended to use this method as input to researches for banks' credit portfolio management. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
378 - Industrial Export and Industrial Sector Growth in Iran
Abstract In this paper we test the relationship between industrial export and industrial sector growth over the period 1338 to 1386 by using VECM. We carried out Johansen test for finding cointegration relations. This test shows two cointegration Equations the fi MoreAbstract In this paper we test the relationship between industrial export and industrial sector growth over the period 1338 to 1386 by using VECM. We carried out Johansen test for finding cointegration relations. This test shows two cointegration Equations the first relation represents the effect of industrial export on industrial sector growth and second indicates the effect of industrial export on employment of industrial sector. Results of coefficient estimations show that the growth of industrial sector in addition affected by factors such as capital and labor, also importantly affected by industrial exports which act through increasing productivity in sectors producing for export and through externalities of export for non-export sectors. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
379 - Analysis of Individual Features and Behavior Motivations in Charitable Giving; Economic Approach
Seyed hamed Hosseini Mostafa Salimifar seyed saeed malekosadatiThe key objective of this article is the test of the effect of individual characteristics in charity giving. The methodology based on descriptive researches and main tool for gathering data is questionnaire and to analyze the data R software is used. Sample include MoreThe key objective of this article is the test of the effect of individual characteristics in charity giving. The methodology based on descriptive researches and main tool for gathering data is questionnaire and to analyze the data R software is used. Sample include of 389 people, by proportional allocation in Regions in Mashhad.The results show that the women more than men, tend to do charitable behavior. Owners are more than tenants have charity behavior. There is significant relationship between the education background and doing charity activity. Among the income, age and employment with charitable activities is not a significant relationship. Finally, the results of mixed logit model indicate that individual motivations of charity behaviors namely altruism, warm-glow and Conspicuous Increases probability of giving, And the mean of coefficients of these variables are significant and positive. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
380 - The effect of the shocks OPEC oil price on the balance of Iran trades
This research tries to study the price the price changes of OPEC oil on trade balance of the economy of Iran. To do this, with the help of a 6-varible sample, we are going to play attention to the experimental study of the short-run and long-run relationship between so- MoreThis research tries to study the price the price changes of OPEC oil on trade balance of the economy of Iran. To do this, with the help of a 6-varible sample, we are going to play attention to the experimental study of the short-run and long-run relationship between so-called variable during 1967-2006 using an ARDL model. The results achieved represent that OPEC oil price change will affect the trade Balance negatively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
381 - Estimation of Production Factors and Productivity Model in Karoon Oil & Gas Production Company
Abstract Productivity is one of the main factors in the optimal use of resources and facilities in the production units and services. Oil and gas companies operate as the leading industries and have significant shares in the export, national pr MoreAbstract Productivity is one of the main factors in the optimal use of resources and facilities in the production units and services. Oil and gas companies operate as the leading industries and have significant shares in the export, national production and the government revenues in Iran. Karoon Oil and Gas production Company, as the most important Iranian company in the said field, has been chosen for our case study during 1987-2009. This estimation is based on the time-series techniques, by using unit root tests, co-integration and error correction models. Results indicate that Cobb-Douglas Production Function is more compatible with the theory of Production Function. The empirical findings also show that the average of productivity growth, labor elasticity, and capital elasticity in Karoon Oil and Gas production Company are 8.3%, 0.64 0.15% and 0.55% respectively. Finally, The Wald Test result show that there is about 1.34 increasing outturn to scale. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
382 - Effects of Information and Communication Technology on Economic Integration in the Selected Developing Countries
In tandem with the development of information and communication technology (ICT), world's integration is increasing. The hypotheses in this article suggest that applying ICT in the countries of the trading parties results in the decrease of the trading costs. The goal o MoreIn tandem with the development of information and communication technology (ICT), world's integration is increasing. The hypotheses in this article suggest that applying ICT in the countries of the trading parties results in the decrease of the trading costs. The goal of this article is to assess the effects of technology on the economic integration in the developing countries including Iran, applying gravity model during 1971-2006. The results indicate that development of ICT in the developing countries bears positive effects on the economic integration, but in some countries it is not still significant. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
383 - Modeling the Establishment of Sugar Industries in East and West Azerbaijan
In this article, the performance of sugar industries in different towns of both East and West Azerbaijan have been modeled in different periods by applying Logit & Probit Model, and through identifying effective factors on the establishment of sugar industries in th MoreIn this article, the performance of sugar industries in different towns of both East and West Azerbaijan have been modeled in different periods by applying Logit & Probit Model, and through identifying effective factors on the establishment of sugar industries in the said areas. Results indicate that the variables of distance (as a transport cost index) and the lands, brought under cultivation of sugar beet are the most effective parameters on establishing the said industries and some cities, including Naghadeh, Miandouab, Orumieh, Khoy and Mahabad are in priorities for establishing sugar manufacturing plants. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
384 - Investigation Industrial Convergence in Iranian Provinces: Spatial Econometrics Approach (SDM)
Sara Masoumzade mehdi shirafkan lamssu Morteza SayareThe aim of present study is to identify the convergence of productivity in the provinces of Iran from 2007 and 2010. In order to evaluate, the researcher used the absolute and conditional beta convergence. With respect to the importance of the neighborhood effect in the MoreThe aim of present study is to identify the convergence of productivity in the provinces of Iran from 2007 and 2010. In order to evaluate, the researcher used the absolute and conditional beta convergence. With respect to the importance of the neighborhood effect in the study, the spatial economy method is used. The result shows that the absolute beta convergence has been approved and this coefficient has the numerical value 0.12.Thiscoefficientisstatistically significant. The conditional convergence coefficient is equal to 0.24, and the coefficient is statistically significant at the 1% level. The control variables in the conditional convergence included industrial diversification, industrial evenness, access to interstate road infrastructure, human capital. Industrial diversification and level of education have negative effect, and industrial evenness positive and access to the road infrastructure have positive effect on productivity convergence. Based on the results of the study it can be suggested that policy- makers and economic planners take more attention to the evenness industry based on the potential of each region Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
385 - Measuring Productivity in the Academic Units and Ranking them Based on Data Envelopment Analysis Models and Malmquist
Academic Evaluation Unit, Islamic Azad University Region 12 and their efficacy is main aim of this paper using data envelopment analysis models in the form of BCC, and AP is done. Also, using the productivity index Malmquist progress or regression function is determined MoreAcademic Evaluation Unit, Islamic Azad University Region 12 and their efficacy is main aim of this paper using data envelopment analysis models in the form of BCC, and AP is done. Also, using the productivity index Malmquist progress or regression function is determined. years period is 88-1384. Results of data envelopment analysis model shows that in the study of academic performance of three units Boein Zahra, Firoozkooh and Varamin than other units and these units are more desirable as reference units for other units is considered be. Also benefiting from Malmquist index became clear that campus units, Qazvin, Firoozkooh, Nazarabad and Hashtgerd a noticeable progress in recent years have been. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
386 - Separation and Computation of Relative Risk Aversion and Elasticity of Inter Temporal Substitution: Recursive Preferences and Dynamic Programming Approach
reza roshanAbstract The aim of this paper is separation and calculation of the relative risk aversion and elasticity of inter temporal substitution (EIS) by combining the recursive preferences and budget constraint of the consumer. For this mean,at the first, asset portfolio was MoreAbstract The aim of this paper is separation and calculation of the relative risk aversion and elasticity of inter temporal substitution (EIS) by combining the recursive preferences and budget constraint of the consumer. For this mean,at the first, asset portfolio was constituted for Iranian households and by using of the GMM approach and utility function, Euler equations investigated for during the 1357-1393. The results of different models indicate that there is no reciprocal relation between of two parameters and Iranian households tend to stabilize and smooth consumption at different states and times. Based on the results, development of financial markets will be on the agenda of planners, so that small-scale households’ capital can be led through such markets to rebuild the country's infrastructure. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
387 - Investigation of Convergence of Income Distribution in Iran`s Provinces
Sara Masoomzadeh mehdi shirafkan lamssu Mojtaba MohamadnejadiAbstract The present study is done to consider convergence in income distribution in Iranian provinces from 1996 to 2014 using convergence methods of Nahar and Inder and checking convergence of each province compared to the country's average Gini coefficient. The result MoreAbstract The present study is done to consider convergence in income distribution in Iranian provinces from 1996 to 2014 using convergence methods of Nahar and Inder and checking convergence of each province compared to the country's average Gini coefficient. The results show that convergence or divergence for Gini coefficient vary from province to province and in more than half of provinces there is no Gini coefficient convergence towards the average. Among the provinces that converge to average, Bushehr has the highest rate of convergence and Golestan province also has the lowest rate of convergence to the average Gini coefficient. In order to achieve the convergence of income distribution among the provinces of the country, politicians are recommended to put in place price adjustment and efficient use of capital on the agenda for divergent provinces. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
388 - The Study of Inflation Main Determinants by Emphasizing on Government Size Trade Openness, Trade Financial and Economic Performances, The Case Study of D8 Countries
This paper examines the effects of trade and financial openness on economic performances of D8 countries in both real and financial sectors by using Panel Data model. Results indicate that there is a positive effect of trade openness on financial sectors, while negative MoreThis paper examines the effects of trade and financial openness on economic performances of D8 countries in both real and financial sectors by using Panel Data model. Results indicate that there is a positive effect of trade openness on financial sectors, while negative effect on economic growth. On the other hand, there is no significant effect of financial openness on real and financial sectors. Since the positive effect of trade openness on financial sectors is much higher than the negative effect on real sector, trade openness policy would be recommended in those countries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
389 - The Home Market Effect on Exports and Manufacturing Products in Iran
Rahman Saadat Esmaeil Abounoori Saeed Rasekhi mohammad reza mardaniAbstract The purpose of this study was to investigate the home market effect in the monopolistic competition market in Iran. The home market effect was investigated in 12 industries based on ISIC two-digit classification published provincially by the Iranian Statistics MoreAbstract The purpose of this study was to investigate the home market effect in the monopolistic competition market in Iran. The home market effect was investigated in 12 industries based on ISIC two-digit classification published provincially by the Iranian Statistics Center for the period 2001 to 2013. Results show that home market effect exist only in the industry of "production of motor vehicles, trailer and semi-trailer". Therefore, high demand for the products of this industry can lead to exports. In other industries, relatively high demand for the products of these industries in country will generally lead to be a net importer of these goods. Based on the results, investment in the industry, which has the home market effect, is suggested. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
390 - The Study of Exchange Rate Dynamics in Iran by Using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Models
mojtaba asghari ali haghighat masoud nonejad Hashem zareThe purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamics of exchange rates and the role of monetary and financial policies. For this purpose, we use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) for a small open economy during the period of 1990-2016. The results show tha MoreThe purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamics of exchange rates and the role of monetary and financial policies. For this purpose, we use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) for a small open economy during the period of 1990-2016. The results show that in different scenarios there are signs of Dutch disease as a weakening of the trade sector, the strengthening of the non-trade sector, the increase in prices in the trade sector, the reduction of prices in the commercial sector and the reduction of the real exchange rate. Based on the results, active financial policies are recommended to control exchange rate fluctuations. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
391 - Estimating Recreational Value of Maku Sardar Palace and Determining Effective Factors on the Visitors' Willingness for Payment
Maku Sardar Palace is located in Maku Town, East Azerbaijan province and is considered as one of the important historical monuments in Iran for both its tourist attractions and its location on the transit road to Turkey and Europe. The aim of this article is to estimate MoreMaku Sardar Palace is located in Maku Town, East Azerbaijan province and is considered as one of the important historical monuments in Iran for both its tourist attractions and its location on the transit road to Turkey and Europe. The aim of this article is to estimate the recreational value of Sardar Palace by applying contingent valuation method. To achieve the goal, a questionnaire has been designed and distributed randomly among 180 visitors in 2008. The results indicate that about 68 Percent of the people accept to pay the offered price and based on the estimated model, the average price that the visitors are willing to pay for each visit is IRR 8,437. Findings of this article can be a suitable guide for the policymakers and planners of the country's cultural heritage in determining appropriate prices of the tickets and financing the costs of providing services and renovation of the said monument. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
392 - A Research on Factors, Affecting National Savings in Iran
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the factors, affecting the rate of national savings in Iran's economy, using OSL, ARDL, and ECM models during 1959-2004. The results indicate that economic growth has positive effect on the rate of n MoreThe main purpose of this paper is to examine the factors, affecting the rate of national savings in Iran's economy, using OSL, ARDL, and ECM models during 1959-2004. The results indicate that economic growth has positive effect on the rate of national savings in both short-term and long-term. Fluctuations of oil incomes in short-term and long-term have negative effect on the rate of national savings. The ratio of net export to GNP in the short- and long-term affects the rate of national savings positively, whose short-term effects is much higher than the ones in the long run; so, the results confirm Maizels – Lee Theory in Iran's economy; whilst, inflation rate coefficient is positive, but not statistically meaningful in the short- and long-term period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
393 - The Effects of Accession to World Trade Organization on Electricity Exports of Iran
This paper examines the impacts of accession to WTO on Iran’s electricity exports to Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. To this end, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used during the period of 1383-1387. The estimation results of model with res MoreThis paper examines the impacts of accession to WTO on Iran’s electricity exports to Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. To this end, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used during the period of 1383-1387. The estimation results of model with respect to each mentioned country show a long-run relationship between variables. So in the long-run there is a negative relationship between the Integration of International Trade (IIT) index and electricity exports. The results reveal that the coefficient of globalization index is less than those of other variables. Also the results of short-run model show a negative relationship between variables. Manuscript profile