List of Articles Mohsen Mehrara

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  1 - Identifying the Determinants of Corruption: An Application of Instrumental Variable Bayesian Model Averaging
  Safoora Kashefi Mohsen Mehrara Ghahraman Abdoli
  10.30495/eco.2020.674216
  AbstractPrevious studies in the corruption literature have introduced numerous variables as the determinants of corruption. This articles aims to evaluate the robustness of potential determinants of corruption by addressing the model uncertainty and endogeneitry. The re More

  AbstractPrevious studies in the corruption literature have introduced numerous variables as the determinants of corruption. This articles aims to evaluate the robustness of potential determinants of corruption by addressing the model uncertainty and endogeneitry. The results derived from an instrumental variable Bayesian model averaging analysis indicate that based on the data of 123 countries, rule of law, with a posterior inclusion probability (PIP) of 1 and posterior mean of 0.662 has the most important role in keeping corruption under control among 36 explanatory variables. Government effectiveness, with a PIP of 0.964 and posterior mean of 0.358 is another significant variable in curbing corruption. Also, with a PIP of 0.965 and posterior mean of -0.194 the Asia dummy variable tells that corruption is a serious problem in the Asia region. Further, confining the analysis to 95 developing countries reveals that rule of law with a PIP of 0.999 and posterior mean of 0.684 is the most critical variable in the fight against corruption. Manuscript profile
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  2 - Modeling Extreme Dependence of Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) to Crude Oil Price: An Approach based on Copula Functions
  Hamid Abrishami Mohsen Mehara Mojtaba Mohammadian
  10.30495/eco.2022.1949896.2614
  20.1001.1.17359910.1401.16.57.1.0
  The objective of this study is to model the extreme dependence structure from the crude oil price to Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) index. For this purpose, the conditional extreme value theory (C-EVT) was used to model the marginal distribution of returns on stock and oil More

  The objective of this study is to model the extreme dependence structure from the crude oil price to Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) index. For this purpose, the conditional extreme value theory (C-EVT) was used to model the marginal distribution of returns on stock and oil market during the period 2008 to 2021. Then, the dependence structure of the extreme return was estimated by Copula models. The results showed that the crude oil market has contagion effects on the TSE. These effects are asymmetric and there is more dependence on the left tail. In other words, as crude oil price falls, decline of the total index is expected and these effects are greater when a positive simultaneous change occurs between variables. Due to the financial risks of the existence of contagion, considering structural extreme dependence can calculate the portfolio risk accurately and reliably. Therefore, it is suggested to pay attention to the structure of extreme dependencies between assets in order to optimize the portfolio. Manuscript profile
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  3 - Examining the Profile of Consumption and Income of Iranian Households During Life Cycles
  Farzaneh Anvari Sajjad Barkhordari Mohsen Mehrara
  10.30495/eco.2023.1991316.2767
  20.1001.1.17359910.1402.17.62.6.2
  This study, using the dynamic planning approach and using the statistics and information obtained from the cost and income of Iranian households in the theoretical framework of the life cycle theory of Modigliani and Brumberg (1954), examines the consumption and income More

  This study, using the dynamic planning approach and using the statistics and information obtained from the cost and income of Iranian households in the theoretical framework of the life cycle theory of Modigliani and Brumberg (1954), examines the consumption and income profile of the life cycles of Iranian households in the form of two versions. "Certainty Equivalent " and " Buffer stock " (which is equivalent to consumption under uncertainty) from Friedman's theory of permanent income and separate different educational groups and occupations. The results of this study show that in all of these profiles, consumption and income profiles follow entirely each other before the age of 45; In this way, it can be claimed that the CEQ theory is valid until the age of 45 and can explain the consumption and income profile of Iranian households well. The changes in the consumption behavior of Iranian households after the age of 45 show the change in preferences and the uncertainty of future incomes, so the profile of consumption and income after the age of 45 can only be explained with models that also consider uncertainty . Other results of this study show that Iranian households save up to the age of 45 with a "precautionary" motive; After the age of 45, the precautionary motivation to save is weakened, and with the change of preferences and the type of uncertainty, the motivation to "finance retirement expenses" is strengthened, and after the age of 65, they save with the motivation of inheritance. Manuscript profile
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  4 - SPECIFYING the EARLY WARNING MODEL for INFLATION by USING MARKOV SWITCHING APPROACH
  Mohsen Mehrara seyed Mohamad Hosein Fatemi
  Abstract This research is an application of the dependent models to the regime in order to determining major determinants of inflation in Iran on the base of seasonal data from 1990:3 to 2016:3, Accordingly, the two inflation regimes, high inflation regime (with an ave More

  Abstract This research is an application of the dependent models to the regime in order to determining major determinants of inflation in Iran on the base of seasonal data from 1990:3 to 2016:3, Accordingly, the two inflation regimes, high inflation regime (with an average annual rate of 28%) and low inflation regime (with an average annual rate of 12%), are identified and causes of regime transition have been surveyed. The results show the significant impact of liquidity growth and the output gap on inflation in both regimes. On the other hand, inflationary impact of liquidity growth in low inflation regime estimated less than the high inflation regime. The results of the Markov model indicate that liquidity growth and money market disequilibrium are the factors of transmission from low inflation to high inflation regime but these variables do not contain any significant implications for the transition from high inflation to low inflation regime. So according to the results, it can be concluded that the use of monetary expansionary policies in a low inflation regime can be more effective on the production than high inflation regime. Manuscript profile
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  5 - Bank and Macroeconomic Variables Efficiency in Risk Management
  Mohsen Mehrara Mehdi Mehran far
  This study investigates the factors affecting risk management efficiency of banking industry during 2001-2009, taking 15 public and private operating banks in Iran. For this purpose, capital adequacy ratio is considered as risk management efficiency indicator and other More

  This study investigates the factors affecting risk management efficiency of banking industry during 2001-2009, taking 15 public and private operating banks in Iran. For this purpose, capital adequacy ratio is considered as risk management efficiency indicator and other determinants are divided into bank specific indicators and macroeconomic variables. Empirical results represent a positive relationship between the liquidity, profitability, operating efficiency, economic growth and capital adequacy ratio while credit risk and inflation rates have a negative effect on capital adequacy ratio as an indicator of risk management efficiency in banks. Manuscript profile
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  6 - Economic Investigation of the Crime and It's Inter-Provincial Spillover Effects in Iran: A Spatial Panel Approach
  mohsen mehrara Ehsan mohammadian nikpey
  Abstract This study investigates the effects of economic and social variables on crimes in Iran by using provincial panel data during 2000-2010. Spatial econometrics is used to study the crime both in space and spillover effects in the model. Research findings suggest More

  Abstract This study investigates the effects of economic and social variables on crimes in Iran by using provincial panel data during 2000-2010. Spatial econometrics is used to study the crime both in space and spillover effects in the model. Research findings suggest that spillover effects caused led by the crimes in provinces are significant in the investigation period. Therefore, any change in crime rate will affect the province and the neighbors by the spillover effects or contagion across boundaries. Furthermore, the results indicate that economic variables of "Income and Industrialization index" and social variables of "Marriage to Divorce Ratio", "Urbanization Ratio" and "Population Increase" all have significant and important effects on the crime along the country. Manuscript profile
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  7 - Relation Between Electricity Consumption and Economical Growth in Selected Exporting Oil Countries
  mohsen mehrara razieh farmahini farahani Ayat hasanzadeh
  The purpose of this study is to estimate the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption growth in the selected oil exporting countries during 1972-2008 using both country time series and panel data. The empirical results based on panel data indicat More

  The purpose of this study is to estimate the relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption growth in the selected oil exporting countries during 1972-2008 using both country time series and panel data. The empirical results based on panel data indicated that there is a mono-directional short-run causality running from electricity consumption growth to economic growth and a bi-directional long-run causality between electricity consumption growth and economic growth. The findings implied that economic growth in the selected exporting oil countries is highly depended to the electricity energy, and thus, electricity conservation policies will have a reverse effect on their economic growth. Manuscript profile
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  8 - Institutions and development in the Middle East Countries
  mohammad hosein fatehi dabanloo Kambiz hojabr kiani abbas memarnejad mohsen mehrara
  The main purpose of this study is to investigate the interaction between institutions and development in the Middle East countries. To testing the hypotheses the Middle East countries were divided into two groups of oil exporting and non-oil-exporting, then the research More

  The main purpose of this study is to investigate the interaction between institutions and development in the Middle East countries. To testing the hypotheses the Middle East countries were divided into two groups of oil exporting and non-oil-exporting, then the research models as systematic and three-stage least squares have been used by the data during the period 1996 to 2014 for the two groups. Wald, Kruskal-Wallis and least significant difference tests were also utilized in appraising the interaction between institutions and development.  The findings show that there is a significant difference between institutions and development interaction in the oil exporting and non-oil-exporting countries in the Middle East. In both groups, the estimated coefficient for the impact of development on institutions is more than the impact of institutions on development. Therefore, pay attention to development, automatically, in addition to improving its indices, upgrades the institutions conditions and improves the indices performance. This impact is exist by institution, also, but the variation speed is more by development.  Manuscript profile