Economic  Modeling: 1 (29)

Open Access Article

1 - Identification and Prediction of Banking Crisis in Iran
Z. Zarei A. Komijani

Abstract This study uses the early warning system approach to predict banking crisis in Iran during 1990Q1– 2013Q4. To achieve the goal, Money Market Pressure index approach will be used by Markov Switching Model. The results indicate that, although, based on gov More

Abstract This study uses the early warning system approach to predict banking crisis in Iran during 1990Q1– 2013Q4. To achieve the goal, Money Market Pressure index approach will be used by Markov Switching Model. The results indicate that, although, based on governmental supporting, the banking section in Iran has never encountered the phenomena such as bank run and bankruptcy, but it has also experienced banking crisis. Likewise, the assessment of probit model suggests that some indexes are leading banking crisis probability. These indicators include the variables of real exchange rate growth, the growth rate of credit endowed to private sector, real GDP, housing price, and real interest rate. Furthermore, the measures of expectation-prediction represent that the model developed has considerable potential to predict in sample banking crisis. Also, this model is unsuccessful in the prediction of the crisis in only 12 percent, but capable of predicting crisis in 77 percent of cases, where the crisis has occurred with probability of more than 40 percent. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

2 - The Effect of Prices Changes on Income and Welfare Distribution in Urban Areas
teymoor mohammadi Abbas Shakeri Mahnoosh Abdollah milani Ali Shahabi

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of price changes on the distribution of income and social welfare in Iranian urban areas during 1991-2011. To get the end, a linear expenditure system is estimated by the use of budget data in urban households t More

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of price changes on the distribution of income and social welfare in Iranian urban areas during 1991-2011. To get the end, a linear expenditure system is estimated by the use of budget data in urban households to obtain the Engel coefficients for 12 good groups estimating seemingly unrelated regressions. Equivalent Income Index is calculated for 10 cost deciles based on what Atkinson’s inequality measure and social welfare index is calculated. The results represent that income inequality of urban households has been increased during the periods of high inflation, while social welfare has experienced a decreased growth. Meanwhile, it is clear that a remarkable part of social welfare changes is aroused by the changes of household's private welfare. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

3 - Economic Investigation of the Crime and It's Inter-Provincial Spillover Effects in Iran: A Spatial Panel Approach
mohsen mehrara Ehsan mohammadian nikpey

Abstract This study investigates the effects of economic and social variables on crimes in Iran by using provincial panel data during 2000-2010. Spatial econometrics is used to study the crime both in space and spillover effects in the model. Research findings suggest More

Abstract This study investigates the effects of economic and social variables on crimes in Iran by using provincial panel data during 2000-2010. Spatial econometrics is used to study the crime both in space and spillover effects in the model. Research findings suggest that spillover effects caused led by the crimes in provinces are significant in the investigation period. Therefore, any change in crime rate will affect the province and the neighbors by the spillover effects or contagion across boundaries. Furthermore, the results indicate that economic variables of "Income and Industrialization index" and social variables of "Marriage to Divorce Ratio", "Urbanization Ratio" and "Population Increase" all have significant and important effects on the crime along the country. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

4 - The Effect of Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and International Business on Greenhouse Gas Emission in Iran
taghi torabi Amin khajooeipour samaneh tarighi mohammadreza pakravan

Abstract Nowadays the people all over the world are increasingly worried about the emission of greenhouse gas and the environmental changes resulted. Since Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the main source of pollution and emission of greenhouse gas, this paper is to study the r More

Abstract Nowadays the people all over the world are increasingly worried about the emission of greenhouse gas and the environmental changes resulted. Since Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the main source of pollution and emission of greenhouse gas, this paper is to study the relationship between the emission of this gas caused by energy consumption, economic growth and international trading in Iran during 1971-2011 based on environmental biology Kuznets Curve in practice. So, auto-distribution method with vast stops is used. The results represent that the use of energy, real gross national production per person and the rate of economy openness has a positive and significant effect on the emission of CO2. Furthermore, for the acceleration of short-term dividend pattern adjustment toward long-term balancing, error correction pattern is used. The coefficient estimated for ECM is -0.49 representing that imbalance of CO2 emission can be adjusted after two years by changing the level of energy consumption, national gross production and the rate of economy openness. By considering the increase of CO2 emission in Iran, it is necessary to make new environmental policies to decrease environmental destruction. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

5 - Study of Pollution Abatement Policy by Using Comparative Static Analysis and Endogenous Growth Model: Case Study of Iran Economy
sharareh majdzadeh tabatabaei ali hosein ostadzad

Abstract In past decade, paying attention to the environment sustainability has been an important macroeconomic goal in different countries by moving towards a low-carbon economic growth. Therefore, this paper attempts to design and calibrate an endogenous growth model More

Abstract In past decade, paying attention to the environment sustainability has been an important macroeconomic goal in different countries by moving towards a low-carbon economic growth. Therefore, this paper attempts to design and calibrate an endogenous growth model and use comparative static analysis to study the policies such as promoting green R&D, imposing an eco-tax, subsidizing less polluting factors of input for pollution abatement and then, to control the pollution effects on Iran economy. The results represent that the government can adjust the behavior of agents in order to reach a sustainable economic growth with the help of appropriate policies, and so to choose an optimal decision in the allocation of resources. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

6 - Modeling and Ranking the Criteria in Providing Favorable Financing for Public Sector by Using MCDM: Case study of Mashhad Metropolis
rasool ghorbani mitra azimi

Abstract This study is to use a library and comparative analysis method for ranking the criteria affecting the optimal model in Mashhad municipal finance and then providing a scheme for the model developed. To get the goal, 23 people are selected in Mashhad Municipalit More

Abstract This study is to use a library and comparative analysis method for ranking the criteria affecting the optimal model in Mashhad municipal finance and then providing a scheme for the model developed. To get the goal, 23 people are selected in Mashhad Municipality officials and economic experts to complete the questionnaire. The data are analyzed based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Expert Choice software. Finally, after weighting and ranking the criteria and decision options, a funding desired pattern is provided for Municipality of Mashhad in three Macro, medial and local levels. The results represent that   renovation tax, building and land tax (except municipal consolidation taxes), value- added tax and the costs of utilities, are respectively the most important policy priorities on the stabilization of municipal revenues. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

7 - Optimal Budget Modeling for Technical and Vocational Training Organization
zarir negintaji akbar zamanzadeh

Abstract Technical and Vocational Training Organization considers the improvement and promotion of financial resource efficiency as one of the main strategies to implement a comprehensive system of skills and technology across the country. Therefore, the identification More

Abstract Technical and Vocational Training Organization considers the improvement and promotion of financial resource efficiency as one of the main strategies to implement a comprehensive system of skills and technology across the country. Therefore, the identification of influential factors in the financial resource allocation is very crucial for policy makers and managers in the organization. This is the main objective of this research. Statistical society includes all provincial departments of vocational training used in this study during 2012-2013. The methodology is based on Panel Data.The results represent allocating financial resource to vocational and technical training centers in provinces should consider five influential variables, namely unemployment, educational commitment, number of instructors and staffs, and finally, number of workshops. This means that the allocation of financial resources in provinces must be done according to the coefficients %15, %26, %30, %28 and %4 respectively, based on unemployment rate, responsible training hours, number of instructors, number of administrative staffs and number of workshops. Manuscript profile

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