Economic  Modeling: 5 (10)

Open Access Article

1 - The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output in IRAN

The aim of this Paper is Evaluation of the Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output in IRAN during 1338-86. To this end, the Effects of Oil Income Shocks on Output Investigated by LSE Approach in the context of output function. Findings can be summarized as Follows. T More

The aim of this Paper is Evaluation of the Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output in IRAN during 1338-86. To this end, the Effects of Oil Income Shocks on Output Investigated by LSE Approach in the context of output function. Findings can be summarized as Follows. The Effects of Oil shocks on output are Asymmetric in both short and Long Run. In the short term positive oil shocks effects are greater than negative ones, but in the Long term negative shocks are grater. The effects of Positive oil shocks on output have decreased over the time but in the case of negative shocks this effects have been stronger. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

2 - The effect of Monetary Policy on the GDP by the Loan Channel of Bank System in Iran

Authorities and economists always try to use suitable monetary and financial tools to achieve economical development. About monetary policies, usually, the central bank tries to use means like legal reserve rate, bands and high rate of discount affecting the cash to pro More

Authorities and economists always try to use suitable monetary and financial tools to achieve economical development. About monetary policies, usually, the central bank tries to use means like legal reserve rate, bands and high rate of discount affecting the cash to provide the development facilities. Monetary policies affect the production and inflation by different channels such as interest rate, exchange rate and the price of the other assent and credits that are the most important of these channels. The aim of this research is to consider the effect of the monetary policy on the production and inflation through bank credit channel (Loan Channel) during 1368-1387 in Iran. So the effect of monetary policy will be considered through bank loan channel by Vector Error Correction model (VEC). In general the results show that with increasing the amount of money by developing bank debts to the central bank, only the production level will be expanded in short-term and even it has negative effect on in long-term. But the general level of prices will be increased in short and long-term. So, the use of this policy tools affecting the level of the production is not suitable but it can help as an anti-inflationary policy. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

3 - Factors affecting the level of investment in listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange

The objective of this paper is to identify the effective elements on the level of companies’ investment. So, affected by 7 selected variables like cash flow, Tobin ratio, growth rate of in come divided payments, announced payments, liabilities changes, paid-in cap More

The objective of this paper is to identify the effective elements on the level of companies’ investment. So, affected by 7 selected variables like cash flow, Tobin ratio, growth rate of in come divided payments, announced payments, liabilities changes, paid-in capital on the level of companies investment have been researched. By using the data of 100 companies as a sample and applying Regression OLS from 2002 to 2008, we will continue the research. The results represent that factors like cash flow, Tobin q ratio, divided payments and announcements and liabilities changes affect the level of investment. But the rate of growth   and paid-in capital don’t affect the level of investment. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

4 - Public Investment in the Transportation Sector and Economic Growth in Iran (1970-2008)

Transportation sector is an important Part of the production and consumption cycle. The expansion of Transportation increases the activity of the labor and capital and creates positive externalities for other economic sectors. Therefore, it has an important role in the More

Transportation sector is an important Part of the production and consumption cycle. The expansion of Transportation increases the activity of the labor and capital and creates positive externalities for other economic sectors. Therefore, it has an important role in the process of economic growth. This paper investigates the effect of government investment in the transportation sector on economic growth during 1973-2009 in Iran. For this purpose, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model will be developed. Our findings show that, in short term., the investment in transportation has a significant positive effect on GDP. In long run, GDP elasticity to public investment in transportation is a significant positive value equal to 0.08. Then, by the positive effects mentioned above, we recommend more and more governmental investment in this sector. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

5 - Evaluation of Fuzzy Labor by Fuzzy neural Network

In this paper, a new hybrid method based on fuzzy neural on fuzzy neural network for estimating the fuzzy coefficients (parameters) of fuzzy supply and demanding the labor function with fuzzy  inputs, is presented. Here a neural network is considered as a part of a More

In this paper, a new hybrid method based on fuzzy neural on fuzzy neural network for estimating the fuzzy coefficients (parameters) of fuzzy supply and demanding the labor function with fuzzy  inputs, is presented. Here a neural network is considered as a part of a large field called neural computing or soft computing. Moreover, in order to find the approximate parameters, a simple algorithm from the cost function of the fuzzy neural network is proposed. Finally, we illustrate our approach by some numerical examples. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

6 - Evaluation of Structure and Performance of Automobile Industry in Iran

Abstract Study this focuses on structure and performance of industry during1998-2007. According to the result of the analysis, the indices between the two top enterprises are in fluctuation between 77/93-99/21 based on Concentration Index, between 3625-4953 as per the More

Abstract Study this focuses on structure and performance of industry during1998-2007. According to the result of the analysis, the indices between the two top enterprises are in fluctuation between 77/93-99/21 based on Concentration Index, between 3625-4953 as per the Herfindhal-Hireshman Index, and between 0/415-0/488 according to the Entropy Index. From the calculated indices figures it can be proved that concentration level is very high in this market. Moreover, social cost (welfare loss) of monopoly in the same market is measured by the use of Cowling & Muller Methods in 2007. Due to the analyses, first the  functional cost of sedan automobile has been estimated in format of collating one sample data by separating 5 major institutes and manufacturer of vehicle including: Iran khodro, Saipa, Pars khodro, Bahman Group, Moratab in time intervals from 2000 to 2007. Result in dicats  welfare loss due to monopoly was 26% of product sale in this market in 2007 which represents high amount of concentration.   Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

7 - Credit Ranking of Parsian Bank legal Customers

In this research we are going to develop a model for evaluating the credit risk and credit ranking by customers in Parsian Bank by the help of the Logit and Probit regression and GMDH neural network methods. This model will be based on the qualitative and financial data More

In this research we are going to develop a model for evaluating the credit risk and credit ranking by customers in Parsian Bank by the help of the Logit and Probit regression and GMDH neural network methods. This model will be based on the qualitative and financial data a random sample of 400 customers receiving credit facilities. After analysis the credit files of each customers, we identified 11 explanatory variables including qualitative and financial aspects as follows: the type of security the type of the workplace owner ship, cooperation background, capital, current ratio, quick ratio, the ratio of current assent to total assents total asset turn over, turnover, current capital turnover, dept ratio an stock holder equity ratio that have significant impart on credit risk. The finding of the study corroborate the economic and financial theories of affection factors influencing credit risk, indicate that neural network model produce mare efficient and precise results than the other popular economic models like Logit and Probit. Also, a money explanatory variables, the type of collateral and dept ratio have the most effect, cooperation background, current ratio, stock holder equity have usual effect and the rest variables are less affection. Manuscript profile

Open Access Article

8 - The effect of the shocks OPEC oil price on the balance of Iran trades

This research tries to study the price the price changes of OPEC oil on trade balance of the economy of Iran. To do this, with the help of a 6-varible sample, we are going to play attention to the experimental study of the short-run and long-run relationship between so- More

This research tries to study the price the price changes of OPEC oil on trade balance of the economy of Iran. To do this, with the help of a 6-varible sample, we are going to play attention to the experimental study of the short-run and long-run relationship between so-called variable during 1967-2006 using an ARDL model. The results achieved represent that OPEC oil price change will affect the trade Balance negatively. Manuscript profile

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