Economic Growth in the Middle East Countries

Subject Areas : Labor and Demographic Economics

amirreza souri ¹ ( دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد )
mohammad hassan sabouri deilami ² ( دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد )
javad attaran ³ ( دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت )

Received: 2015-04-22 Accepted : 2015-04-22 Published : 2011-04-01

Keywords: panel data, Oil Demand function, crude oil price, Gross Domestic Production, Stationary, Co-integration Tests,

Abstract :

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between crude oil demand and economic growth in Middle East by panel unit root and co-integration developed techniques during 1980-2007. By developing a model, the crude oil demand, oil price and GDP and their growth rates will be explained. In continue, we are going to estimate two various models for oil demand function and the effect of economic growth on Middle East oil demand. The findings represent that the demand function is asymmetric in respect to price and income. Also, economic growth rate is the most important factor for increasing crude oil consumption in Middle East countries. On the other hand, these countries’ oil demand elasticity based upon the price and income is low, but income elasticity is higher than price. However, the findings suggest that oil demand is more important than economic growth. It is because of these countries’ disability in replacing crude oil by new energy sources. 

References:

منابع

ــ تقوی­نژاد، احسان (1376). بررسی عدم تقارن تابع تقاضای نفت، پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد دانشگاه تهران، تهران.

ــ تقوی نژاد، احسان (1385). بررسی تاثیر قیمت‌های بالای نفت بر تقاضای جهانی نفت (با تاکید بر کشورهای در حال توسعه). فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی،3 (11): 62-43.

ــ زراء نژاد، منصور و انواری، ابراهیم (1384). کاربرد داده‌های ترکیبی در اقتصادسنجی. فصلنامه بررسی­های اقتصادی،2 (4): 89-65.

ــ قطمیری، محمدعلی و شرافتیان جهرمی، رضا (1386). مقایسه تأثیر تغییرات نرخ ارز بر تولید در کشورهای در حال توسعه منتخب با نظام‌های ارزی مختلف. فصلنامه بررسی‌های اقتصادی،4(1): 76-58.

ــ مهرگان، نادر و اشرف زاده، سید حمید رضا (1387).اقتصادسنجی داده­های پنل. انتشارات نورعلم،تهران.

ــ وافی نجار، داریوش (1385). تخمین تابع تقاضای کل انرژی بخش خانگی- تجاری مناطق مختلف OECD با در نظرگرفتن اثرات نامتقارن تغییرات قیمت بر تقاضا. فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی، 3(9): 102-84.

ــ همتی، عبدالناصر (1380). اقتصاد انرژی. مؤسسه مطالعات بین‌المللی انرژی،تهران.

ــ یادگاری، حسین (1383). برآورد تابع تقاضای فرآورده‌های نفتی در بخش صنعت ایران. مؤسسه مطالعات بین المللی انرژی،فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصاد انرژی،1: 124-105.

-    Al-faris, A.F. (1997). Demand for oil products in the GCC countries. Energy Policy, 25(1):55-61.

-    Al-Mutari, N.H. & Eltony, M.N. (1995). Price and income elasticities of energy demand: Some estimates for Kuwait using two econometric models. Journal of Energy and Development, 20(2):175-185.

-    BP, Amaco, Statistical Review of World Energy(2008).

-    Breitung, J. (2000). The local power of some unit root tests for panel data, In: Baltagi, B.H. ed Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration and Dynamic Panels Amsterdam: Elsevier: 161-177.

-    Brown, S.P.A. & Phillips, K.R. (1989). Oil demand and prices in the 1990s. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, January: 55-73.

-    Chakravorty, U., Fesharaki, F.  &Zhou, S. (2000). Domestic demand for petroleum in OPEC countries. OPEC Review, 24(1): 23-52.

-    Cooper, John C.B. (2003). Price elasticity of crude oil:Estimates for 23 Countries. OPEC Review, vol.XXVII, )1(:1-8.

-    Eltony, M.N. & Hoque, A. (1996). A cointegrating relationship in the demand for energy: The case of electricity in Kuwait. Journal of Energy and Development, 21:293-301.

-    Eltony, M.N. & Mohammad, H. (1999). Electricity demand by the commercial sector in Kuwait: an econometric approach. OPEC Review, 25(1): 23-32.

-    Eltony, M.N. & Mohammad, Y.H. (1993). The structure of demand for electricity in the gulf cooperation council countries. Journal for Energy and Development, 18(2):213-221.

-    Eltony, M.N. (1994). An econometric study of the demand for gasoline in the gulf cooperation council countries. Journal of Energy and Development, 19(2):265-273.

-    U.S. Energy information administration independent statistics and analysis (EIA), http://www.eia.gov/

-    Energy modeling forum (EMF), http://emf.stanford.edu/

-    Green. H. William. (1993). Econometric analysis, second edition, Macmillan Publishing Company,vol(no): 465-485.

-    Getely, D. (1993). The imperfect pricee reversibility of world oil demand. the Energy Journal, 14(4):163-182.

-    Getely, D., & Hillard G.H., (2001). The asymmetric effects of changes in price and incomon energy and oil demand. Energy Journal, 23(1):19-55. 

-    Ghouri, S.S. (2001). Oil demand in North America: 1980-2020. OPEC Review, 25(4): 339-355.

-    Hadri, K. (2000). Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. Econometrics Journal, 3: 148-161.

-    Huntington , H. G. (1993). OECD oil demand, estimated response surfaces for nine world oil policy models. Stanford University, 1992. Also printed in Energy Economics, January vol(no):49-56.

-    Mohammad, Y.H. & Eltony, M.N. (1996). The demand for natural gas in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Middle East Business and Economic Review, 8(1):41-48.

-    International Energy Agency (IEA), http://www.iea.org/

-    Dahl, C., (1994). A survey of energy demand elasticities for the developing world. Journal of Energy and Development, 17(1): 1-47.

-    Maddala , G.S., (1988). Introuduction to econometrics. University of Felorida, Macmillan Publishing Company, New York.

-    Levin, A. & Lin, C.F.,(1992). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties. University of California, San Diego, Discussion (7):92-93.

-    Kao, C. and Chiang, M.H. (2000). On the estimation and inference of a cointegrated regression in panel data. In: Baltagi, B.H., (ed.), Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 15, Nonstationary Panels, Panel cointegration and Dynamic panels, Amsterdam, JAI Press, 15: 179-222.

-    Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to PPP hypothesis: new results. Econometric Theory, 20(3): 597-627.

-    Pesaran, M.H., Ron. S. & Takamasa A.,(1998). Energy Demand in Asian Developing Countries, Oxford Uni.Press for the World Bank and Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Pindyck, R.S., (1979). Interfuel substitution & industrial demand for energy. The Review of Economic & Statics.