Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to apply the system dynamics approach to forecasting the price of gold in Iran, identify the factors affecting the price of gold and simulate the trend of the impact of monetary policy on the price of gold in the period 1405-2010. More
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to apply the system dynamics approach to forecasting the price of gold in Iran, identify the factors affecting the price of gold and simulate the trend of the impact of monetary policy on the price of gold in the period 1405-2010. The simulation is performed with Wenzim software. In different scenarios, the present paper simulates the change in liquidity volume, consumer price index and bank interest rates on the gold market. The results show that the price of gold is not only affected by the global ounce price and the value of the dollar, but also the control of liquidity and curbing inflation will play a significant role in stabilizing the gold market. The results confirm that the volume of liquidity and the consumer price index have a direct impact and a significant role in increasing the price of gold. The findings also show that changes in bank interest rates have no effect on changes in gold prices.
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