An Empirical Examination of Stability, Predictability and Volatility for Capital Markets in Persian Gulf Rim

Subject Areas : Labor and Demographic Economics

yadollah Dadgar ¹ , Behzad Vamaziari ²

1 - دانشیار اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید بهشتی
2 - دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد دانشگاه تهران

Received: 2015-04-21 Accepted : 2015-04-21 Published : 2011-04-01

Keywords: Stability, Risk Premium, Predictability, volatility, Emerging Stock Markets,

Abstract :

This paper examines the dynamic relationship of stock markets, stability, predictability, volatility, and persistence of shocks volatility of stock markets in Iran, Saudi Arabia, United Arabic Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman. In this paper, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity model (GARCH) and Autoregressive Moving Average model (ARMA) are implemented by using monthly data during 1990-2010. The results indicate that stock market doesn’t have notable predictability in Iran and there is Cluster volatility for return of stock in most markets and almost, in none of these markets except Oman, explosive volatilities are observed. It is also indicated that the return for markets of Bahrain and Oman doesn’t have stability in significant level of 5 percent and for Iran it doesn’t have stability and durability in significant level of 1 percent. In addition, although the markets of these countries have high capacities for return of investment, but, in particular, the findings show a low correlation between these markets. Also, the results for the period in question explain that none of these markets has the ability of leadership among others.

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