Trade Integration, Specialization and Synchronization of Business cycles in ECO: Evidences of a Dynamic Correlation Index
Subject Areas : Labor and Demographic EconomicsSaeed Rasekhi 1 , Ahmad Jafari Samimi 2 , somayeh Sadeghi 3
1 - دانشیار دانشگاه مازندران
2 - استاد دانشگاه مازندران
3 - دانشجوی دکتری دانشگاه مازندران
Keywords: Business Cycles Synchronization, Trade Integration, GMM,
Abstract :
New international economic theories indicate that the increase of trade integrations is an important and effective element in Business cycles synchronization. This paper investigates the effects of trade integration and specialization on synchronization in ECO during 1993-2007, introducing a new and dynamic cross correlation index and using GMM methods. The results represent that increased trade (intra-industry trade and inter-industry trade) strengthen synchronization in ECO Countries. Also, more industrial similarities of a pair of countries induce higher bilateral synchronization.
منابع
- کریمی، فرزاد و طیبی، کمیل (1389). یکپارچگی تجاری و همزمانی سیکلهای تجاری درکشورهای عضو سازمان کنفرانس اسلامی برحسب ترتیبات منطقهای. فصلنامهپژوهشهاوسیاستهایاقتصادی، 18 (54): 146-123.
- منطقی، خسرو، ضیغمی، محمدعلی، نوروزی، بیتا (1389). بررسی جریان تجارت خارجی و تقارن سیکلهای تجاری ایران با کشورهای واقع در آسیای جنوب غربی. فصلنامهپژوهشنامهبازرگانی، (56): 58-33.
- گمرک جمهوری اسلامی ایران، ،آمارهای سالهای 2011-1993.
- Akin, C. (2007). Multiple determinants of business cycle synchronization. George Washington University, Department of Economics.
- Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations, The review of economic studies, 58: 277-297.
- Calderón, C., & Chong, A., & Stein, E. (2007). Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: Are developing countries any different? Journal of International Economics, 71 (1): 2–21.
- Cerqueira, P. A., & Martins, R. (2009). Measuring the determinants of business cycle synchronization using a panel approach. Economics Letters, 102(2): 106-108.
- Coe, D. T., & Helpman, E. (1995). International R&D spillovers. European Economic Review, 39(5): 859–887.
- Deardorff, A. (1998). Determinants of bilateral trade: Does gravity work in a neoclassical world. In: Frankel, J. (Ed.), The regionalization of the world economy. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
- Eichengreen, B. (1992). Should the maastricht treaty be saved? princeton studies in international finance, Princeton University, New Jersey.
- Fichtner, F. (2003). Macroeconomic synchronization in Europe: Analysis in an international real business cycle model. Mimeo, Köln University, Köln.
- Frankel, J., & Rose, A. (1998). The endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria. The Economic Journal, 108(6): 1009–1025.
- Grubel, H. G., & Lloyd, P. J., (1975). Intra-industry trade: The theory and measurement of international trade in differentiated products. New York: Wiley.
- Hsu, C. C., &Wu, J. Y., & Yau, R. (2011). Foreign direct investment and business cycle co-movements: The panel data evidence. Journal of Macroeconomics.
- Imbs, J. (2004). Trade, finance, specialization, and synchronization. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 86(3): 723–734
- Inklaar, R., & Jong-A-Pin, R., & de Haan, J. (2008). Trade and business cycle synchronization in OECD countries – a re-examination. European Economic Review, 52(2): 646–666.
- Jules-Armand, T. (2007). Bilateral trade and business cycles synchronization: African monetary integration perspective. Economics Bulletin, 6(2):1-15.
- Kose, M. A., & Yi, K.-M. (2001). International trade and business cycles: Is vertical specialization the missing link. American Economic Review, 91(2): 371-375.
- Krugman, P. (1993). Lessons of Massachusetts for EMU. in F. Giavazzi & F. Torres (Eds.), the transition to economic and monetary union in Europe (pp. 241–261). New York: Cambridge University Press.
- Lichtenberg, F., & van Pottelsberghe, B. (1998). International R&D spillovers: A comment. European Economic Review, 42(3): 1483–1491.
- McKinnon, R. I. (1963). Optimum currency areas. American Economic Review, 53(4): 717-725.
- Mundell, R. (1961). A theory of optimum currency area. American Economic Review, 51(4): 657–665.
- Otto, G., & Voss, G., & Willard, L. (2001). Understanding OECD output correlations. Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper No 2001/05.
- Rana, P. B. (2007). Economic integration and synchronization of business cycles in East Asia. Journal of Asian Economics, 8(6): 711–725.
- Shin, K., & Wang, Y. (2004). Trade integration and business cycle co-movements: The case of Korea with other Asian countries. Japan and the World Economy, 16(2): 213–230.
- Stockman, A. C. (1988). Sectoral and national aggregate disturbances to industrial output in seven European countries. Journal of Monetary Economics, 21(4): 387–410.