Estimating of Natural Gas Supply and Demand in Iran and predicting them for 2025

Subject Areas : Labor and Demographic Economics

Received: 2015-04-25 Accepted : 2015-04-25 Published : 2010-04-01

Keywords: Supply, demand, Natural gas, Subsidy,

Abstract :

   In this paper, the major variables affecting the supply and demand of natural gas in Iran are introduced and by using the OLS technique, the natural gas supply and demand models are estimated in the forms of ARIMA. Short term income and price elasticities are 0.44 and 0.084 and long -term income and price elasticities are 8.8 and 1.68 .The short -term and long term elasticities of natural gas supply to natural gas export are 0.13 and 0.25. Using the estimated models and in 3 scenarios, natural gas supply and demand are predicted for the year 2025. In the first scenario natural gas supply and demand growth rates will be 3.5 and 4.5 percent per yearly. In the second scenario the annual growth rate of natural gas supply and demand will be 3.9 and 3.6 percent, and, finally, in the third scenario, these growth rates will be 2.1 and 3.51 percent.

References:

فهرست منابع

-    Abrishami, H. (2002). Applied Econometrics, Tehran University publications.

-    Abounoori, A. A. (2006). Microeconomics, first edition, Islamic Azad University Central Branch Publications.

-    Ahmadian, M. (1994). Market Theory and Exhaustible Energy Sources, Institute for International Energy Studies.

-    Rezaei Mierqaed, M., Mobini Dehkordi, A. (2006). Iran Outlook Horizon, Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance Publications.

-    National Iranian Gas Company, managing directorate annual reports, management information systems unit.

-    Gujarati, D'mour, Basic Econometrics, second edition, Hamid Abrishami translation, Tehran University Publications

-    Noferesti, M. (1998). Error correction model and integration, Shahid Beheshti University Publications.

-    Oil Ministry, Institute for International Energy Studies (1997). Twenty years comprehensive plan for natural gas, fifth edition.

-    Power Ministry, Energy Deputy, Energy Planning Department (2006). Energy balance.

-    Chedid, R. and Kobrosly, M. and Ghajar, R. (2006). A supply model for crude oil and natural gas in the Middle East. Energy Policy 35, 2069-2109

-    Huntington, G. Hillard. (2006). Industrial Natural Gas Consumption in the United States: An Empirical Model for Evaluating Future Trends. Energy Economics 29, 743-759.

-    Kaboudan, M.A. and Liu, Q.W., (2003). Forecasting quarterly us demand for natural gas.

-    Krichene, Noureddine, (2002), World crude oil and natural gas : a demand and supply model .Energy Economics 24, 557-576