Reaction of European Industries Importing Iranian Oil to Energy Prices: Inter-factor analysis and Inter-fuel analysis
Subject Areas : Labor and Demographic Economics
somayeh
azami
1
(razi university)
Kiumars
Soheili
2
(Associate Professor at Department of Economics, University of Razi, Kermanshah)
marjan
ghasemi
3
(Razi university)
Keywords: Seemingly Unrelated Regression, JEL Classification: C33, D21, Inter-fuel Substitution, Morishima Elasticity of Substitution, Q40. Keywords: Inter-factor Substitution,
Abstract :
Abstract The purpose of this study is evaluating European manufacturing Industries Importing Iranian Oil response to energy prices during 1970-2005. A two-stage translog model is used for estimating production factor and fuel demand elasticities. Results of inter-factor analysis show that in most of the countries, energy is inelastic input. Results of inter-fuel analysis show that natural gas is a good substitute for gasoil in European industries. With increasing price of electricity and natural gas, it is predicted that oil is a substitute for these energy carriers in most of countries. Demand elasticity for energy carriers (excluding gasoline) was low estimated. The results of this study have important implications for the industry energy suppliers and environmental policy makers.
منابع
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پیوست:
جدول 1. آزمون ریشه واحد فیشر
|
Q |
|
SGo |
SNg |
SO |
SM |
SE |
SL |
کشور |
|||||
|
21/89 (000/0) |
84/4 (099/0) |
80/15 (060/0) |
06/3 (000/0) |
49/105 (000/0) |
10/105 (000/0) |
16/95 (000/0) |
81/32 (017/0) |
68/101 (000/0) |
92/40 (0016/0) |
68/92 (000/0) |
72/85 (000/0) |
17/96 (000/0) |
آلمان |
|
60/61 (000/0) |
15/100 (000/0) |
89/23 (050/0) |
77/109 (000/0) |
63/100 (0000/0) |
59/55 (000/0) |
53/96 (000/0) |
68/46 (007/0) |
14/155 (000/0) |
90/65 (000/0) |
11/75 (000/0) |
77/74 (000/0) |
86/140 (000/0) |
ایتالیا |
|
1478/60 (000/0) |
15/100 (000/0) |
89/23 (058/0) |
007/92 (000/0) |
85/107 (000/0) |
30/97 (000/0) |
96/70 (000/0) |
49/186 (000/0) |
69/121 (000/0) |
17/91 (000/0) |
08/77 (000/0) |
53/36 (082/0) |
74/232 (000/0) |
هلند |
|
09/61 (000/0) |
63/81 (000/0) |
63/26 (042/0) |
86/83 (000/0) |
03/368 (000/0) |
09/416 (000/0) |
38/195 (000/0) |
73/48 (004/0) |
21/80 (000/0) |
14/7493 (000/0) |
93/83 (000/0) |
89/83 (000/0) |
60/76 (000/0) |
پرتغال |
|
71/55 (000/0) |
35/102 (000/0) |
17/32 (018/0) |
169/100 (000/0) |
39/59 (000/0) |
25/126 (000/0) |
55/71 (000/0) |
87/47 (0056/0) |
18/139 (000/0) |
38/61 (0001/0) |
97/73 (000/0) |
31/74 (000/0) |
10/84 (000/0) |
اسپانیا |
|
26/31 (021/0) |
72/15 (061/0) |
04/17 (052/0) |
36/46 (000/0) |
53/80 (000/0) |
60/65 (000/0) |
59/85 (000/0) |
45/53 (000/0) |
90/69 (000/0) |
05/47 (0002/0) |
65/40 (0336/0) |
13/55 (0007/0) |
35/68 (000/0) |
سوئد |
|
81/70 (000/0) |
5414/1 (000/0) |
79/34 (010/0) |
62/85 (000/0) |
19/110 (000/0) |
78/86 (000/0) |
78/80 (000/0) |
10/44 (0006/0) |
72/100 (000/0) |
76/187 (000/0) |
83/240 (000/0) |
54/112 (000/0) |
99/553 (000/0) |
انگلستان |
|
67/25 (048/0) |
1967/106 (000/0) |
43/36 (083/0) |
79/103 (000/0) |
77/167 (000/0) |
49/185 (000/0) |
26/186 (000/0) |
24/50 (002/0) |
66/76 (000/0) |
67/76 (000/0) |
58/108 (000/0) |
53/107 (000/0) |
71/112 (000/0) |
اتریش |
|
67/38 (052/0) |
24/68 (000/0) |
44/40 (035/0) |
54/74 (000/0) |
52/113 (000/0) |
33/382 (000/0) |
79/86 (000/0) |
82/55 (000/0) |
51/159 (0000/0) |
79/68 (000/0) |
07/50 (0004/0) |
64/53 (001/0) |
14/87 (000/0) |
بلژیک |
منبع: یافتههای تحقیق
جدول 2. آزمون استقلال جملات پسماند بریوش – پاگان
|
سیستم تقاضای سوخت |
سیستم تقاضای عوامل تولید |
کشور |
||
|
P-Value |
LM |
P-Value |
LM |
|
|
000/0 |
55/97 |
000/0 |
14/347 |
آلمان |
|
000/0 |
22/24 |
000/0 |
17/467 |
ایتالیا |
|
000/0 |
48/37 |
000/0 |
29/152 |
هلند |
|
000/0 |
25/40 |
000/0 |
70/220 |
پرتغال |
|
03/0 |
75/8 |
000/0 |
70/355 |
اسپانیا |
|
000/0 |
00/90 |
000/0 |
45/189 |
سوئد |
|
0009/0 |
48/16 |
000/0 |
17/405 |
انگلستان |
|
000/0 |
51/99 |
000/0 |
9/653 |
اتریش |
|
0079/0 |
82/11 |
000/0 |
88/351 |
بلژیک |
منبع: یافتههای تحقیق
_||_