• List of Articles Scenario

      • Open Access Article

        1 - Futuristic Scenarios Of The Mental Image Of Large Shopping Centers In Tehran (Old Context)
        Negar Salehi ZOHREH DAVOUDPOUR مریم خستو
        Nowadays, Large Shopping Centers As One Of Emerging And Popular Public Urban Spaces Have Found Their Place As One Of The Three Priorities Of Citizens In Metropolises. Meanwhile, These Large Shopping Centers Can Influence The Mental Image Of People And The Perceived Mean More
        Nowadays, Large Shopping Centers As One Of Emerging And Popular Public Urban Spaces Have Found Their Place As One Of The Three Priorities Of Citizens In Metropolises. Meanwhile, These Large Shopping Centers Can Influence The Mental Image Of People And The Perceived Meaning Of The Place, The Identity Of The Place, And Social Sustainability, Which Reveals The Necessity Of Futuristic Research About Them. The Purpose Of This Research Is To "Identify The Important Variables Affecting The Mental Image Of A Large Shopping Center Located In Old Context Of Tehran" And "Explain The Compatible Futures, In Front Of The Mental_Image Of A Large Shopping Center Located In Old Context Of Tehran" And Present Appropriate Strategies, Policies And Action Plans In To Control The Negative Effects Or Prevent Them From Happening In Future With These Strategies. The Main Question Of This Research Is, Which Futures, Ahead Of Mental_Image Of A Large Shopping Center In Old Context Of Tehran City Are Believable And Compatible, And What Strategies,Policies And Action Plans Can Control Their Negative Effects?In Order To Answer The Research Problem,The Futuristic Research Approach With Quantitative Method Is Used. Effective Variables Are Identified With Documentary Studies In Background Of The Research,Then With A Survey Method Using A Questionnaire From 15 Experts, With The Delphi Technique, The Main Non-Deterministic Variables Are Identified, And The Results In The Scenario Wizard Software Lead To The Explanation Of Compatible And Believable Scenarios.Then, With DPSIR-Framework-Technique, Strategies Are Extracted And Policies And Action Plans Are Formulated. The Findings Of Research Indicates That The Poor Quality And Unfavorable Perception Caused By The Large Saray_E_Delgosha Shopping Center Located In Old Context Of Tehran Will Bring Many Social And Economic Consequences In Future, Which According To The Strategies, Policies Proposed Appropriate Action Plans Can Control The Meaning And Mental_Image Perceived In Future. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        2 - Modeling & Analysis of Future Scenarios in Iranian Banking System
        Ali Rezaeian Hamidreza Fartokzadeh Meisam Rajabi Nahouji Nima Lotfi Foroushani
        The present study is a descriptive-analytical study aimed at mapping probable states in the future of the banking system of Iran. In the process of doing this research, at first, eight main actors, including government, parliament, judiciary, central bank, governmental More
        The present study is a descriptive-analytical study aimed at mapping probable states in the future of the banking system of Iran. In the process of doing this research, at first, eight main actors, including government, parliament, judiciary, central bank, governmental banks, private banks, microcredit customers and large-scale customers of banks, were interviewed. There were two influential actors in creating the future scenarios of the banking system (government and large-scale customers of banks i.e. financial resources applicants). The major options for each decision to create the future were examined. Thereafter, possible options and priorities were determined. At the end, the stability of probable situations were analyzed and different policies for each of the situations were proposed. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        3 - Foresight on the effects of Implementation of water transfer from the Sirvan River (The Arid Areas Project) on the Location-Spatial Changes in Mehran County (Iran)
        hamid jalalian farhad azizpour hossein mehdizadeh javad alibeygi
        Background: Nowdays, regarding to rapid environmental changes and uncertainties due to it, “Foresight” is considered as a strategy for Future research can be considered as one of these strategies for water comprehensive management Objective: This article di More
        Background: Nowdays, regarding to rapid environmental changes and uncertainties due to it, “Foresight” is considered as a strategy for Future research can be considered as one of these strategies for water comprehensive management Objective: This article discusses about the Foresight of locational-spatial changes due to implementation of the project from the Sirvan River to dried regions in the county of Mehran (Arid Areas Project) on the horizon of 2029.Methods: The theoretical framework of this research is based on new approaches to prospective, analytical, and exploratory science, which is carried out using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Due to the nature of this research, have been used of Delphi methods, structural analysis and scenario analysis findings: The data of this research includes 13 effective factors that were extracted from among 30 primary factors using Delphi method and Mick McAware software.Then, based on the idea of scenario planning, there were defined 52 possible and probable situations in the future of the county for the above factors and with the formation of a 52×52 matrix using the Scenario Wizard software, Finally extracted and analyzed 1 very desirable scenario, 11 desirable scenarios, 2 midway scenarios and continuation of the Continue current current situation, 8 scenarios on the eve of the crisis and 1 critical scenario that is in total of 23 believable scenarios. Conclusion: Possible scenarios, although they show high hopes for favorable conditions in the county, but on the other hand, do not consider the occurrence of critical situations as unexpected. Manuscript profile
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        4 - Designing the Brand Equity Model and Forecasting the future process in Alborz Insurance Company with using a System Dynamics Approach
        somayeh shafeiha Abbas Saleh Ardestani Mohammad Ali Afshar Kazemi Vahid Reza Mirabi
        In changing and dynamic world, the managers need to become sensitive to the dynamic uses of brand management. Have to look at marketing issues with a systematic approach to predict the effects of their decisions before occurring in the future by using an integrated tool More
        In changing and dynamic world, the managers need to become sensitive to the dynamic uses of brand management. Have to look at marketing issues with a systematic approach to predict the effects of their decisions before occurring in the future by using an integrated tool. Brand equity is a source of competitive advantage that reduces the Company's vulnerability to crises and competitors, then, creating a strong brand and its improvement appears to be the ultimate goal of marketing activities, especially service businesses, which can improve and increase the rate of return on brand investment. The aim of this study was to design and analysis system dynamics of brand equity capable of simulating the effect of variables (brand loyalty, perceived quality, brand awareness, brand association) over time. In this paper, brand equity in Alborz insurance company was designed within a systematic thinking, and using the system dynamic tools, the behavior of variables was predicted on a 72-month by using of Vensim software. The main variables were initially identified. Then, their relationships were completed in the form of causal loops and accumulation- flow diagram. Finally, the model was simulated in the software. Then, through analysis of sensitivity and policy, a valid model by an improved policy structure was obtained, which was used to develop the brand equity improvement scenario. It was clarified in the best scenario that by changing the parameters, brand equity will rise from 61.7% at the beginning of the base year to 84.2% at the end of the simulation. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        5 - Digital banking service scenarios in horizon 1408
        azam babki rad
        In the present study, we have used the Peter Schwartz scenariobulding method to identify digital banking service scenarios. This is done with the help of methods of Thematic Analysis, Analytical matrix of network effects, and uncertainty and narrative. And the scenario More
        In the present study, we have used the Peter Schwartz scenariobulding method to identify digital banking service scenarios. This is done with the help of methods of Thematic Analysis, Analytical matrix of network effects, and uncertainty and narrative. And the scenario method is used as a workflow connection loop for all of these methods. Identification of “driving forces" and "key factors" was performed using qualitative method, thematic network analysis, and with the help of QSR NVIVO 10 software. As a result of the macro and micro environment scans at the three levels of 'community context', 'business environment' and 'organizational environment', a total of 86 variables (driving forces and key factors) have been identified related to the future of digital banking services. Of the 86 variables obtained in the previous step, 50 variables were designated as the input of the effects network and uncertainties. The Impact network and Uncertainty, which is an analytical matrix, enables the positioning of identified elements in terms of the degree of uncertainty and significance (potential impacts) that are identified as critical uncertainties as a result of 'digital service quality' and 'digital lifestyle'. They affect the future space, and based on these two critical uncertainties, four scenarios have been narrated: technological governance; technological fascination; technological tragedy and technological backwardness, with emphasis on the structure of each scenario. Manuscript profile
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        6 - Futures investment and financing of rail transportation industry (machinery and equipment)
        Mohammad Reza Fathi Mohammad Hassan Maleki Hossein Moghaddam
        Transportation  industry  is  considered  as  one of the most important  elements  of  national  economy  and because  of  possessing  basically  role, has abundant  effects  on  proces More
        Transportation  industry  is  considered  as  one of the most important  elements  of  national  economy  and because  of  possessing  basically  role, has abundant  effects  on  process  of  economic  growth  of  the  country. Thus, without  existence of  transportation network, installations and  lateral equipment and desired fleet, imagination  of  growth and  general  development  of country  sounds  impossible. in  this research with  applying  two  methods  of  futures study  including structural  analysis  and  scenario  planning  at  first   proceed  to  identifying  and  analyzing  key effective  factors  and  then  futures  scenarios  of  investing  and  financing  in  railway transportation  industry (machinery and equipment sector) will be wrote. First data of this research are gathered with using interview with managers and experts of railway industry, literature review and review antecedent researches and   analyzed in the form of expert questionnaire and using Mic-mac software. among 40 effective factors, 16 important  factors  are  identified  and with analyzing Mic-mac software, eventually 3 effective key factors  including  economic  sanctions, inflation  and  monetary  and   financial   policies specified. These factors used as basically foundations in writing scenarios. Set of probable conditions of these factors specified by experts and then 7 uncertain conditions considered for them and entered to Scenario wizard software. with analysis of Scenario wizard  software, 5 scenarios with high consistency  presented and  then  with  regard  to  experts viewpoints, 2  effective  key  factors  including  economic sanctions and monetary and financial  policies that have high  uncertainty  and  high  importance, identified as pivots of  writing future scenarios  and then 4 scenarios for future of investing and financing in railway  transportation  industry  presented.   Manuscript profile
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        7 - Research on Iran's Economic Future Scenarios and Its Security Impacts: Critical Uncertainty Approach
        Hossein Esmaeili razi Alireza nasr esfahani
        Studying and planning to achieve a better economic future, plays an important role in the thinking of economic policymakers in every country, including Iran. But the achievement to the desirable and sustainable future requires answering these questions that the Iran's e More
        Studying and planning to achieve a better economic future, plays an important role in the thinking of economic policymakers in every country, including Iran. But the achievement to the desirable and sustainable future requires answering these questions that the Iran's economy has been influenced by what factors and policies? And what factors determine the future trend of Iran's economy? Accordingly, in this research, the study on past trends of the Iran's economy and the identification of factors that affecting the Iran's economy have been considered, in order to write the scenarios for the Iran's future economy and its security impacts. For this purpose, critical uncertainty approach were used.To write the future scenarios, Iran's economic factors with critical uncertainty were identified by using questionnaires that completed by economic experts. Accordingly, two uncertainties of "international economic sanctions" and "oil price" were selected as the critical uncertainties. Based on the results of these scenarios, the Iran's economy will face a decline in economic growth in three scenarios, and in only one scenario, conditions for economic growth and development will be provided without a serious impediment. From a security point of view, in three scenarios and due to changes in the economy, Iran will face security problems with regional, transnational and internal sources.   Manuscript profile
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        8 - Foresight of urban project delays by using GBN, CLA. fuzzy TOPSIS and SWOT
        Mahdi Kalhor Hossein Zabihi
        Urban projects are one of the integral parts of urban management tasks. Hence, different parts of an urban project management improvement are one of city executive concerns. Delay and Delay management is on of these parts. Any delay of construction project implementatio More
        Urban projects are one of the integral parts of urban management tasks. Hence, different parts of an urban project management improvement are one of city executive concerns. Delay and Delay management is on of these parts. Any delay of construction project implementations is a waste of resources and it will impose heavy costs on any project. Occasionally, this is so influential that it even affects project justification. This paper examines the causes of urban project delays by using Casual Layered Analysis (CLA). Then, it will use scenario-building to make most likely scenarios by using Global Business Network (GBN). GBN uses the most likely uncertainties ahead of project delay to make its scenarios. In this regard, two series of interviews, one structured and one structured, are performed. Then, based on them, The related uncertainties are ranked by using fuzzy Technique to Order Preferences by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOSIS). It uses SWOT to propose some strategies. Based on results, four scenarios are formed. Then, the impact of each scenario on the project delay conditions are examined. Some strategies are suggested to move toward the best scenarios. Based on the results, minimizing the government size and creating various infrastructures ,to make competence situation, are the future keys of having less delayed urban project. Manuscript profile
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        9 - Cultural intelligence futures research with a Scenario writing approach
        iman khaki Naser Mirsepasi Mahbobeh Montazer Ataei Hamid Erfanian Khanzadeh
        10.30495/jmfr.2022.55283.2254
        Background: Today, with the increasing speed, complexity, and extent of environmental changes, we are witnessing a continuing decline in the accuracy of traditional forecasts in the organization. Since people interact with each other and different organizations in a com More
        Background: Today, with the increasing speed, complexity, and extent of environmental changes, we are witnessing a continuing decline in the accuracy of traditional forecasts in the organization. Since people interact with each other and different organizations in a completely dynamic and culturally diverse environment, a deep understanding of possible futures can lead to greater productivity.Objective: This research has been compiled with the aim of studying the future of cultural intelligence with a scenario-building approach.Methods: The research method is qualitative research and is in accordance with the quasi-numerical or judgmental approach in the field of futures research methods. In addition to articles, the assessment tool was the compilation of questionnaires in two stages using the Delphi technique. In this Delphi panel study, 17 experts in the field of communication and organizational behavior were selected by researchers. For structural analysis, the matrix method of cross-sectional analysis coefficients using Mick Mac software has been used.Findings: The findings showed that cultural, environmental, educational, and media factors have the greatest impact on cultural intelligence, based on which four scenarios called cultural intelligence, the cradle of cultural empathy, cultural intelligence free of prejudice (free-thinking), cultural intelligence Underlying Cultural Shock and Cultural Intelligence is written unrealistic media representation feedback.Conclusion: Predicting the future of cultural intelligence can reduce communication barriers between different cultures and give people the power to manage culture. Manuscript profile
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        10 - Future studies of the banking industry with a scenario approach
        farhad shamshiri Abdulhamid Ebrahimi Roohalla samieee Majid Ashrafi
        Background: The banking industry, as one of the most important sectors of the economy, has encouraged experts and economic experts to recognize the future of its volatility and stabilize it in the face of changes and to provide growth and development. Purpose: The purpo More
        Background: The banking industry, as one of the most important sectors of the economy, has encouraged experts and economic experts to recognize the future of its volatility and stabilize it in the face of changes and to provide growth and development. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to formulate scenarios of the banking industry with a future research approach. Method: The methodology of this research is based on future research scenario writing. Data collection tools are questionnaires, interviews, check-ins, and statistical and information networks. In this study, the statistical population of banking managers and specialists and university professors are familiar with the field of banking, which, based on the type of information required to conduct the research, non-probable judgmental sampling was used. Results: After formulating the initial question and identifying the main topic, forming the panel of experts, conducting exploratory interviews and identifying the driving forces, 64 variables were identified as the primary influencing factors of the banking industry by a 64*64 matrix and then provided with the help of Mic Mac Software , 12 key factors were extracted and categorized into 38 different situations. These situations were then presented to the experts for all key factors in a 38*38 matrix and analyzed in the Scenario Wizard software and four scenarios were extracted. Conclusion: Finally, 3 strong scenarios, 1 believable scenario and 8 weak ones were identified and classified into three groups: desirable, static and crisis and presented strategies for developing the banking industry. Manuscript profile
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        11 - Developing Drug Prevention and Combat Scenarios
        abdollah hendiani
        Drug policy-making requires proper estimates of drug-related trends. This reveals the necessity of paying attention to future research in this field. In this regard, the present study seeks to investigate the future of the approaches of the Police against Drugs in Khora More
        Drug policy-making requires proper estimates of drug-related trends. This reveals the necessity of paying attention to future research in this field. In this regard, the present study seeks to investigate the future of the approaches of the Police against Drugs in Khorasan Razavi province. This research is a mixed research of documentary and survey method. Library studies and questionnaires and Delphi techniques were used to collect the data. The statistical population of the present study is all managers, deputies, senior experts and experts of police in Khorasan Razavi province, who are either decision makers or activists in this field, as well as officials of the Presidential Counter Narcotics Headquarters in the said province. Are people. The purpose of this study was to obtain the opinions of 13 experts. In the present study, Delphi and scenario-based methods were used among the future research methods and according to the nature of the research. They were first identified using the Delphi-uncertainty approach that the drug police will face in the future. Then, two key uncertainties are identified and expressed on the basis of binary scenario scenarios. Manuscript profile
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        12 - Assessment and Analysis of the Future Situation of the Favorable Urban Governance in Iranian Cities Based on Baseline Scenario (Case Study: Tehran City)
        kiyan shakarami masoud chharrahi mozzafar hasanvand
        Background: Today, among the various approaches proposed in the field of urban management, good urban governance is one of the most famous and most effective approaches Purpose: The purpose of the study was to identify and evaluate the most significant variables and pri More
        Background: Today, among the various approaches proposed in the field of urban management, good urban governance is one of the most famous and most effective approaches Purpose: The purpose of the study was to identify and evaluate the most significant variables and principal determinants affecting the future of urban governance up to the 2031 horizon for the Tehran metropolis. It was also looking for the most likely scenarios in the field of urban governance in the 2032 horizon for the Tehran metropolis. Research method: The present study used structural analysis and cross-effect analysis to look to analyze the data. The data and information required for the research were a combination of quantitative and qualitative data, which were gathered through documentary research and survey method (questionnaire) and interview with experts in a Delphi model. For data analysis, MICMAC software was used to analyze the interactions of variables and Morphol software to compile scenarios. Findings: Finally, out of a total of 100,000 output scenarios, 5000 scenarios were identified as valid and, given the impossibility of analyzing this number, 10 scenarios with high inertia were selected, and among these 10 scenarios, 4 scenarios with the highest inertia and repeat rates of over 90% were analyzed in subsequent scenarios. Conclusion: The results showed that there was no any ideal scenario among the scenarios and the only favorable scenario was the response variable that has been repeated in all four scenarios, which indicated the weakness of Tehran's metropolitan management structure in realizing good urban governance. Manuscript profile
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        13 - Scenarios for the development of Iran's renewable energy on the horizon of 2040 with future study approach
        Kiarash Fartash Mohammad Sadegh Khayyatian Yazdi Amir Ghorbani
        10.30495/jmfr.2022.19496
        Background: One of the main problems and concerns of today's world is the termination of fossil fuel resources as the most important current energy source in the world; for this reason, renewable energy has been considered as an alternative to fossil fuels.Objective: Th More
        Background: One of the main problems and concerns of today's world is the termination of fossil fuel resources as the most important current energy source in the world; for this reason, renewable energy has been considered as an alternative to fossil fuels.Objective: The aim of this study is to formulate scenarios for the development of renewable energy in Iran with future study approach.Methods: Based on the purpose, this research is an application that has collected information using qualitative-exploratory methods. We used interviews and expert panels for data gathering. In this study, the statistical population of managers and experts are knowledgeable and specialized in the field of energy, especially renewable energy, which according to the type of information required to conduct research, non-probabilistic sampling has been used.Findings: A panel of experts was formed and the driving forces were identified. In order to determine the main drivers, two indicators of importance and uncertainty were used. According to the indicators of importance and uncertainty, the two driving forces of "emerging technologies" and "green and sustainable economy" were selected. Four scenarios were developed: "Environmental sustainability with green gold", "Temporary and unsustainable rise towards sustainability", "Productivity with black gold" and "Continuation of the current trend and the sinister cycle of the black disaster".Conclusion: At the end of the scenarios compiled with the background, it was compared and analyzed to what extent the proposed scenarios of the present research are in line with the findings of those researchers. Manuscript profile
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        14 - Future Scenario Planning for the Impact of Organizational Excellence on Marketing Management in Universities
        Vahidreza Mirabi Nassim Heidari Jalal Haghighatmonfared
        10.30495/jmfr.2022.56706.2297
        In this study, the future scenario of the impact of organizational excellence on marketing management in the field of universities was investigated. The statistical population of this study is the participants of specialists or experts. They need sufficient knowledge an More
        In this study, the future scenario of the impact of organizational excellence on marketing management in the field of universities was investigated. The statistical population of this study is the participants of specialists or experts. They need sufficient knowledge and experience in the subject, willingness, sufficient time to participate, and effective communication skills. Statistical sample of this research 10 industry experts have been selected for interview. Data collection tools in this research, field research includes books, articles, the Internet or any appropriate scientific source and reference of experimental findings and questions from elites and experts in related fields (interviews). After the interview, the information was analyzed. The interview analysis method is theme analysis. Team analysis is a method of determining, analyzing, and expressing patterns (themes) within data. The main themes extracted from the current research are human resources, value management and competitor identification. In the first scenario, the outlook for the next 10 years of the Azad University in Iran will not be considered very favorable if the current situation continues. With the continuation of the current trend, the share of university students is very small due to its capacities in our country. In the second scenario (rapid growth and connection with the world) it is proposed that Iran connect with the global economy by attracting more students. The third scenario is balanced growth and connection with the world. A 30% increase in student enrollment is one of the goals of this scenario. Manuscript profile
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        15 - Determining Policy Priorities to Reduce Traffic Deaths Based on Scenario Building in 1404
        M. Majid Fouladgar Mohsen Bahrami
        The purpose of this paper is to determine policy priorities in order to reduce traffic deaths in a 10-year vision by concerning traffic deaths scenarios. In this regard, the methods of foresight are used to make policy intelligently and effectively. Therefore in th More
        The purpose of this paper is to determine policy priorities in order to reduce traffic deaths in a 10-year vision by concerning traffic deaths scenarios. In this regard, the methods of foresight are used to make policy intelligently and effectively. Therefore in the first step, the historical process is achieved by literature review and interviews with experts. Then, by futures studies methods, factors affecting the traffic deaths issue  based on expert opinion has been recognized by using the Joseph Voros model in three levels of events and trends, structures and worldview, and then classified and categorized by cross impact analysis (CIA) method. The outputs of this method are the driving factors, political factors and indicators that policy making and evaluation will be provided by these possible scenarios. The scenario building with three main uncertainties in three levels including the value and discourses, rules and economic conditions, led to the formation of eight main scenario space that among these scenarios, 4 plausible scenarios were selected based on the expert opinions. Then, policies to reduce traffic deaths were formulated based on experts' opinions  and according to the overall health policies and Hadun matrix, and were examined by selected scenarios. Assessment process was performed by taking into account three main criteria of social justice, financial constraints and priority of prevention over treatment and finally, the policy of education and cultural policies (first priority), strengthening the punitive laws (second priority) and increasing the police surveillance and control with maximum participation of citizenship (third priority) were selected as sustainable policies to reduce traffic death.   Manuscript profile
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        16 - Exploring the Future of Commercialization of Higher Education in the Islamic Republic of Iran; a Necessity or an Obligation
        Alireza Hemmati Mohamad Ali Goudarzi Ibrahim Hajiani
        The future world will bring different and diverse social and economic realities. Population growth in developing countries leads to this fact that funding sources and budget are divided among more people. The people's demands increase and, subsequently, the price of liv More
        The future world will bring different and diverse social and economic realities. Population growth in developing countries leads to this fact that funding sources and budget are divided among more people. The people's demands increase and, subsequently, the price of livelihoods, health, security, education and transport increases as well. Globally speaking, education is subject to this phenomenon. The university, as an institution of higher education, is an ever-changing reality. Despite the significant increase in the number of students applying in this sector, budget allocation to universities lags behind. On the other hand, the nature of this population is changing as well because more middle-aged student groups as well as ordinary students enter into this field. Regarding their diverse family status, living conditions, social and professional needs, time to respond to demands and geographical distance, these students have different needs that affect the structure and implementation of education. As such, higher education sector and those universities that are not actively and professionally involved in this inevitable change as well as those universities that do not have a scientific future studies and planning to face this reality will lose market share. There are evidence that indicate that universities and higher education institutions and private sector will share the opportunity of commercialization of higher education and take advantage of this new opportunity. The necessity and demand for continuous and everlasting learning provides a great profitable and economic opportunity and capacity for universities. Commercialization of higher education in Iran is faced with important and challenging uncertainties. Future studies can examine the commercialization of higher education via investigating the past as well as main changes, trends, indicators and emerging phenomena in this domain. Furthermore, alternative scenarios for the future of commercialization of higher education in Iran in an active confrontation with main environmental uncertainties will be identified thereof. Manuscript profile
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        17 - Future Studies of Cultural Services in Islamic Advertising and Communication Department of Astan Quds Razavi
        Ahmad Borumand Kakhki Hamed Davari امیرناصر اخوان
        In 1394, Research and Planning Management of Islamic Advertising and Communication Department of Astan Quds Razavi in ​​order to their inherent missions had defined a research project about the future of its own cultural services. In this regard, futures studies expert More
        In 1394, Research and Planning Management of Islamic Advertising and Communication Department of Astan Quds Razavi in ​​order to their inherent missions had defined a research project about the future of its own cultural services. In this regard, futures studies expert team was formed and they selected scenario development method (GBN) as a favorable futuristic planning. So library and field studies concluded by huge volumes of baseline studies, review of dozens of articles and administrative documents in addition to interviews. After recognizing key elements and driving forces, experts accredited these factors by their interactions in four specialized PEST panels, and potential defects were resolved. Then researchers identified two elements of "economic situation" and "cultural integrated management" as critical uncertainties and constructive scenario development axes based on the findings and Cross Impact Analysis. We have been considered level of integrated management (organizational and more broadly) and caused to describe total six inductive scenarios including preferable, probable and possible ones. Meanwhile guidance indicators and advices were described in order to make fields to shape better decisions and policies besed on Astan Quds Razavi vision. Manuscript profile
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        18 - Investigation of Immigration to Tehran Using Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
        Aliollah Ghanbari
        Tehran's population growth and the entry of new immigrants has been one of the problems for governors, policy makers, and planners. Therefore, since the middle decades of the current century, as a concern, it has been considered as a threat to social, environmental, hea More
        Tehran's population growth and the entry of new immigrants has been one of the problems for governors, policy makers, and planners. Therefore, since the middle decades of the current century, as a concern, it has been considered as a threat to social, environmental, health, and disaster preparedness issues. However, the activities have been performed to prevent Tehran population growth, failed to achieve success and in spite of all these activities, the problem of Tehran population and immigration growth still exists.In this paper, causal layered analysis (CLA) as a futures study method is used for splitting and analyzing the several layers leading to the issue of Tehran immigration growth, and different scenarios are considered for the future. In this regard, based on analysis of the under layers and due to the uncertainty and importance, "development model" and "cultural orientation" are identified as its drivers and the scenarios are designed according to them. Manuscript profile
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        19 - Future Studies of Cultural Services in Islamic Advertising and Communication Department of Astan Quds Razavi
        Ahmad Borumand Hamed Davari Amirnaser Akhavan
        In 1394, Research and Planning Management of Islamic Advertising and Communication Department of Astan Quds Razavi in order to their inherent missions had defined a research project about the future of its own cultural services. In this regard, futures studies expert te More
        In 1394, Research and Planning Management of Islamic Advertising and Communication Department of Astan Quds Razavi in order to their inherent missions had defined a research project about the future of its own cultural services. In this regard, futures studies expert team was formed and they selected scenario development method (GBN) as a favorable futuristic planning. So library and field studies concluded by huge volumes of baseline studies, review of dozens of articles and administrative documents in addition to interviews. After recognizing key elements and driving forces, experts accredited these factors by their interactions in four specialized PEST panels, and potential defects were resolved. Then researchers identified two elements of "economic situation" and "cultural integrated management" as critical uncertainties and constructive scenario development axes based on the findings and Cross Impact Analysis. We have been considered level of integrated management (organizational and more broadly) and caused to describe total six inductive scenarios including preferable, probable and possible ones. Meanwhile guidance indicators and advices were described in order to make fields to shape better decisions and policies besed on Astan Quds Razavi vision. Manuscript profile
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        20 - Future Study of Decision Models in Business Using Scenario Planning Approach
        Mohammad Hassan Maleki Mohammad Reza Fathi
        From the beginning, Operations Research or decision models have been met with several developments. Futures survey of OR and the necessity of planning for it in literature is considered less. Sporadic activities in the literature haven’t required methodological. More
        From the beginning, Operations Research or decision models have been met with several developments. Futures survey of OR and the necessity of planning for it in literature is considered less. Sporadic activities in the literature haven’t required methodological. This study aims to identify the exploratory scenarios of OR by Critical Uncertainties approach. To develop the plausible scenarios of OR, the comments of domestic and foreign experts were collected by questionnaire with Delphi approach. After extracting the uncertainties, the plausible scenarios of OR were identified by seminar workshops. These scenarios include: solar system, Esfandiar eye, competitor Satraps, Phoenix. Imagination of the single future for all academic departments is away from reality. According to the conditions, each of these futures and a combination of them are imaginable. Manuscript profile
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        21 - Scenario Development by using Probability Trees; Case Study: The Future of Tehran Stock Exchange
        Ahmad Borumand Kakhki Mohsen Bahrami
        Scenario scripting and development, one of the most important method in futures studies, can be resulted by using logic sequence of events methods like "probability scenario tree ". This method, despite its special benefits, was less valued by researchers and scenario More
        Scenario scripting and development, one of the most important method in futures studies, can be resulted by using logic sequence of events methods like "probability scenario tree ". This method, despite its special benefits, was less valued by researchers and scenario planner. Trees were rarely used as a development tools but in this research, authors attempt to explain a special methods step by step that can set new writing and reading style for future scenarios examined in topics entities. In this way, contact to scenario is operated successively. Then possible future situations and images with conditional probabilities can be seen as a tree with a distinct routes from root (now status) to end which appear as a scenario. Identified key variables as driving forces of investigated matter and determining different and discrete status of them could make different chronological order of their occurrence apparent and the conditional probabilities from node to node towards the future can be calculated. In this study, the researchers scanned the scientific literature and developed a practice step by step in a case study entitled " Next 5 Years Tehran Stock Exchange Scenarios ". We tried to perform this method and deliver feedback to strengthen it through interviews and questionnaires and library studies too. The results of applying this method in Tehran Stock Exchange shows approval logic on probability calculations method and chronology of events. Events followed from the pre-known chance percent by experts and was so interesting. The advantages of this expert-based method are to strengthen the recognition and diagnosis of favorable and unfavorable scenarios with probability of their occurrence, appearing future state map at a glance, recognizing the transformational interruption points and Milestones in the future, sensitivity analysis and contingency planning. Results and outputs of this method can make fertile field for scenarios based planning and processing by experts, so that it provides to imagine the future through deeper understanding and insight in the complex decision-making. Manuscript profile
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        22 - Identify Plausible Scenarios Textile Industry
        Amirhussain Hassan-nejad Mohammadhassan Maleki
        This study was conducted to determine the future of textile industry of Qom. This is an applied and a survey research of descriptive groups, in terms of objective and data collection method, respectively. The statistical population is from textile industry experts and More
        This study was conducted to determine the future of textile industry of Qom. This is an applied and a survey research of descriptive groups, in terms of objective and data collection method, respectively. The statistical population is from textile industry experts and snowball sampling method was used to make a sample. Questionnaire was applied to collect the data. Scenario analysis method was employed to analyze the data for this study. To develop plausible scenarios, the techniques of crisis uncertainty would be used. The nature of the questions is considered based on the uncertainties in the field of textile industry in the country that have two limit states and there is uncertainty on the occurrence of one of these two. In order to analyze the questionnaires and use the results in writing scenarios, 3 indicators of specialty, consensus and significance were used. According to the indicators of consensus and the significance, two states of the "purchasing power by people" and "trade liberalization and the removal of tariffs" were selected. Due to both of uncertainties, four scenarios were developed, including textile of smiling, hope to grow, multi-stratified cemetery and window of life. Manuscript profile
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        23 - A Review Of Cross Impact Analysis Methods And An Introduction To the Correlation Logic Method
        Ebrahim Hajiani Alireza Hemmati
        Most of the futures study methods evaluate the concerning variables and drivers seperately to predict or examine the events. However, some times there is a need to analyze the event occurance probability in correlation with a series of predicted events. The Cross Impact More
        Most of the futures study methods evaluate the concerning variables and drivers seperately to predict or examine the events. However, some times there is a need to analyze the event occurance probability in correlation with a series of predicted events. The Cross Impact Analysis method is the key to this problem. Requiring more complex statistical processing to achieve the results, the Cross Impact Analysis method, like the Delphi method, is based on the experts opinions. The main approach in this method is to determine the event occurance probability or various driver forces seperately and ask the experts opinions for the event occurance probability in case of other event occurances and their cross impact. In advanced methods of this analysis, discussed in this study, event occurance probability is reviewed in the chain of reasons between events. Thus, a matrix of the primary probabilities and conditional probabilities and directed event cross impact relations and driving forces is designed. The common methods of this analysis defines rules based on the two logic of probabilities and structures relations for the events impacts on each other. However, both methods are not used for the cross impacts. In this study, authors presented a new method of correlation logic to cover both positive and negative impacts of events on each other using a review on available methods of cross impact analysis. Cross impact analysis method usually leads to a scenario Manuscript profile
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        24 - Scenario Development by using Probability Trees; Case Study: The Future of Tehran Stock Exchange
        Ahmad Boroumand Mohsen Bahrami
        Scenarioscripting and development, one of the most important method in futures studies, can be resulted by using logic sequence of events methods like "probability scenario tree ". This method, despite its special benefits, was less valued by researchers and scenario pl More
        Scenarioscripting and development, one of the most important method in futures studies, can be resulted by using logic sequence of events methods like "probability scenario tree ". This method, despite its special benefits, was less valued by researchers and scenario planner.Trees were rarely used as a development tools but in this research, authors attempt to explain a special methods step by step that can set new writing and reading style for future scenarios examined in topics entities. In this way, contact to scenario is operated successively. Then possible future situations and images with conditional probabilities can be seen as a tree with a distinct routes from root (now status) to end which appear asa scenario.Identified key variables as driving forces of investigated matter and determining different and discrete status of them could make different chronological order of their occurrence apparentand the conditional probabilities from node to node towards the future can be calculated. In this study, the researchers scanned the scientific literature and developed apractice step by step in a case study entitled " Next 5 Years Tehran Stock ExchangeScenarios". Wetried to perform this method and deliver feedback to strengthenit through interviews and questionnairesand library studies too.The results of applying this method in Tehran Stock Exchange shows approval logic on probability calculations method and chronology of events.Events followed from the pre-known chance percent by experts and was so interesting.The advantages of thisexpert-based method are to strengthen the recognition and diagnosis of favorable and unfavorable scenarios with probability of their occurrence, appearing future state mapat a glance, recognizing the transformational interruptionpointsand Milestones in the future, sensitivity analysis and contingency planning. Results and outputs of this method can make fertile field for scenarios based planning and processing by experts, so thatit provides to imagine the future throughdeeperunderstanding and insight in the complex decision-making. Manuscript profile
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        25 - Designing the Brand Equity Model and Forecasting the Future Process in Alborz Insurance Company with Using a System Dynamics Approach
        Somayyeh Shafeiha Abbas Saleh Ardestani M. A. Afshar Kazemi V. Reza Mirabi
        In changing and dynamic world, the managers need to become sensitive to the dynamic uses of brand management. Have to look at marketing issues with a systematic approach to predict the effects of their decisions before occurring in the future by using an integrated tool More
        In changing and dynamic world, the managers need to become sensitive to the dynamic uses of brand management. Have to look at marketing issues with a systematic approach to predict the effects of their decisions before occurring in the future by using an integrated tool. Brand equity is a source of competitive advantage that reduces the Company's vulnerability to crises and competitors, then, creating a strong brand and its improvement appears to be the ultimate goal of marketing activities, especially service businesses, which can improve and increase the rate of return on brand investment. The aim of this study was to design and analysis system dynamics of brand equity capable of simulating the effect of variables (brand loyalty, perceived quality, brand awareness, brand association) over time. In this paper, brand equity in Alborz insurance company was designed within a systematic thinking, and using the system dynamic tools, the behavior of variables was predicted on a 72-month by using of Vensim software. The main variables were initially identified. Then, their relationships were completed in the form of causal loops and accumulation- flow diagram. Finally, the model was simulated in the software. Then, through analysis of sensitivity and policy, a valid model by an improved policy structure was obtained, which was used to develop the brand equity improvement scenario. It was clarified in the best scenario that by changing the parameters, brand equity will rise from 61.7% at the beginning of the base year to 84.2% at the end of the simulation.   Manuscript profile
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        26 - Future Scorecard in Strategic Foresight Context
        Saeed Khazaee Sahneh Mehran Aslaniyan
        Context: Scenarios have traditionally been used to describe the possibility of replacing future developments in the external environment, which are then used to assess the current strategy and develop future strategies. However, with a shift in focus away from the marke More
        Context: Scenarios have traditionally been used to describe the possibility of replacing future developments in the external environment, which are then used to assess the current strategy and develop future strategies. However, with a shift in focus away from the market-based paradigm towards a resource-based view of strategies, scenarios can also be used to describe alternatives for internal development paths of an organization. Then, these two types of scenarios can be systematically developed and used as significant features of an early strategic warning system (Future Scorecard). This research tries to provide a systematic approach towards strategic foresight by combining internal scenarios (resource-based view) and external scenarios (market-based view) within a mechanism called the future scorecard that can be used to describe alternative ways of internal development in organizations. By studying existing literature, as well as numerous examples, tries to develop the concept of future scorecard. The findings suggest that the external (market-based) and internal (resource-based) approach to building an early strategic warning system should be combined. Objectives: This research tries to provide a systematic approach towards strategic foresight by combining internal scenarios (resource-based view) and external scenarios (market-based view) within a mechanism called the future scorecard that can be used to describe alternative ways of internal development in organizations. Methods: By studying existing literature, as well as numerous examples, this research tries to develop the concept of future scorecard. Finding and conclusions: The findings suggest that the external (market-based) and internal (resource-based) approach to building an early strategic warning system should be combined. It also showed that the future scorecard includes performance indicators, change indicators, critical market indicators, and strategy premises Manuscript profile
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        27 - Measuring effective components in trust and social participation for tax policy
        Alireza Rostami Abass Toolooee eshlagi Reza Radfar
        Todays, tax revenues play an important role in financing governments. The issue of increasing tax revenues and possible ways for this increase is an attractive issue for governments. Especially in a single-product economy like Iran, whose main source of income is the vo More
        Todays, tax revenues play an important role in financing governments. The issue of increasing tax revenues and possible ways for this increase is an attractive issue for governments. Especially in a single-product economy like Iran, whose main source of income is the volatile and unpredictable oil income. This research aims, while briefly introducing the presented models and classifying them, effective factors in increasing tax revenues and evaluating public trust and participation in the field of taxation have been examined and identified with a meta-integration approach, and the main components of this model include legal factors, social factors, there are cultural factors, managerial factors, political factors and managerial factors. Then, in order to better understand the variables affecting this relationship and understand the existing dynamics, using the approach of system dynamics modeling and drawing causal-loop diagrams (CLD), a model for evaluating trust and public participation in the field of taxation is presented and finally simulated so It was done by Vensim software. The simulation results indicate the positive effect of economic factors on public trust and participation in the tax field, with the point that the effect of economic factors is greater than the simultaneous application of all components. Manuscript profile
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        28 - Analysis and Investigating the Factors Affecting the Implementation of Policy in the Judiciary Based on the Nakamura and Smallwood Model
        akbar etbariyan roghaye keshvarianazad
        context: The judiciary, with its effective role in resolving contest, protecting public rights, expanding and enforcing justice, implements poblic policies that affect all sections of society. Objective: The purpose of this study was to examine and analyze the factors a More
        context: The judiciary, with its effective role in resolving contest, protecting public rights, expanding and enforcing justice, implements poblic policies that affect all sections of society. Objective: The purpose of this study was to examine and analyze the factors affecting the policy implementation policy in the judiciary Methods: Based on the literature on the implementation and policy implementation in the judiciary, the factors influencing the implementation of the policy based on the Nakamura and Smallwood approach, the research model was determined. To collect data, interviews were conducted with 28 experts working in the field of Policy, implementing and Evaluation judiciary policies. Sampling was done purposefully and data analysis was performed using qualitative approaches and interpretive analysis method for data analysis. Results: According to the results, all editors, administrators and evaluators are effective in implementing policies, and administrators have the most important role, and there is a deep and interdependent relationship between administrators and policy makers in the judiciary, the factors involved in this relationship are clearly Goals, the nature of the tasks, and the amount of control that they apply to each other. Manuscript profile
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        29 - Provide a model for evaluating the timing skills of capital market professionals combined multi-indicator decision making and scenario design
        behrooz nazari freydoun rahnama Mahdi Madanchi Zaj HAMIDREZA KORDLOUIE
        10.30495/jfksa.2023.21894
        In this study, we provide a model for evaluating the performance of capital market professionals (Case Study of Mutual Fund Managers) on how to apply market timing strategy in predicting future market movements, using a combination of multi-indicator decision making and More
        In this study, we provide a model for evaluating the performance of capital market professionals (Case Study of Mutual Fund Managers) on how to apply market timing strategy in predicting future market movements, using a combination of multi-indicator decision making and We have analyzed the scenario of "expert system proposed by Hosseini Nasab" using the network analysis process (ANP) [3]. In the mentioned method for modeling and analyzing data, the matrix of internal and external dependencies of strategies and criteria was calculated and using the designed network model, strategies for determining weight and the most important strategies were evaluated. This method is used to implement the model of capital allocation to corporate stocks, with the three objectives of return, risk and liquidity. Manuscript profile
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        30 - A Robust Scenario Based Approach in an Uncertain Condition Applied to Location-Allocation Distribution Centers Problem
        Mahdi Bashiri Amir Moslemi
        Manuscript profile
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        31 - Presenting a model of the effect of decision-making styles on scenario-based profit management by considering five neo personality factors in financial managers
        Manouchehr Aravand zohreh hajiha hamidreza kordlouie mohammad khanmohammadi tahereh mahmoodian
        10.30495/jma.2023.21909
        In the accounting literature, the decision-making approach as a dominant theory in accounting explains the theory of the company. The aim of this study was to provide a model of the effect of decision-making styles on scenario-based profit management by considering five More
        In the accounting literature, the decision-making approach as a dominant theory in accounting explains the theory of the company. The aim of this study was to provide a model of the effect of decision-making styles on scenario-based profit management by considering five personality factors in financial managers. Descriptive research method is correlation. Decision-making styles are independent variables and profit management is the dependent variable, and the five personality factors of Neo are the moderating variables. The statistical population includes all the financial managers of the member companies of the Tehran Stock Exchange in 1400. The total number of companies is 540 companies, and finally 120 companies were selected as a sample after screening (systematic exclusion). In order to measure the profit management based on the study of Klikman and Henning (2000), a scenario was first designed and then the scores extracted from the scenario were considered as the score of profit management. The tools used include Scott and Bruce's general decision-making styles questionnaire and Neo's five-factor questionnaire. Structural model with Smartpls software was used to analyze the results. The results showed that 45.7% of the changes related to scenario benefit management by decision-making styles interacted with extraversion personality trait, 51.4% interacted with flexibility trait, 42.2% interacted with adaptability trait, 6.6 46% is explained by the interaction with the characteristic of conscientiousness and 46.8% by the interaction with the personality characteristic of neuroticism. And due to the importance of personality traits in the decision-making process of managers, the implementation of personality tests during the selection of managers can be one of the most essential parts of recruitment and selection of human resources. Manuscript profile
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        32 - Prediction of runoff changes in Zarrineh river basin under climate change conditions via hydrological simulation
        Maliheh Rahvareh Baharak Motamedvaziri Alireza Moghaddamnia Ali Moridi
        10.30495/jrnr.2022.19241
        It is necessary to study the behavior of the river under the effect of climate change, especially the runoff in the future periods. This study evaluated the effect of climate change on the runoff of Zarrineh river basin (the largest sub-basin of Lake Urmia) co More
        It is necessary to study the behavior of the river under the effect of climate change, especially the runoff in the future periods. This study evaluated the effect of climate change on the runoff of Zarrineh river basin (the largest sub-basin of Lake Urmia) considering the General Circulation Model (GCM) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (2.6 and 8.5). For this purpose, temperature and precipitation changes in the future periods in Zarrineh river basin were studied using climate data of Had GEM2-ES model during the period 2025-2050. The Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) was used to downscale climate data. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was used to evaluate the impact of climate change on runoff the basin. Also, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using monthly runoff. Then, downscaled results of the general circulation model interoduced to the SWAT model. And runoff changes at the outlet of the basin were simulated during 2025-2050. The results showed that the SWAT model has good performance in runoff simulation. The average results of the CCT model revealed that the maximum and minimum temperatures would increase in 2025-2050. The annual precipitation could increase 3.6% under RCP 2.6 and decrease 2.9% under RCP 8.5. The seasonal trends in the runoff showed a decreasing trend in winter, spring and summer while an increasing trend in autumn. Annual runoff under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 has decreased 6.5% and 30% respectively. Which subsequently reduces the discharge of this river to Lake Urmia.  Manuscript profile
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        33 - Simulation of a Suitable Pattern of vegetation Cover for Protection and Restoration of Tajan Watershed Using TOPSIS and AHP
        فاطمه رجائی عباس اسماعیلی ساری عبوالرسول سلمان ماهینی مجید دلاور علی رضا مساح بوانی مصطفی قلی پور
        Abstract Change and destruction of the environment by human activities, has been increased that results can be pointed out to the landscape change. This paper aims to determine the best scenario to protect and restore land cover changes in the future with an emphasis on More
        Abstract Change and destruction of the environment by human activities, has been increased that results can be pointed out to the landscape change. This paper aims to determine the best scenario to protect and restore land cover changes in the future with an emphasis on the patches connection of natural vegetation. Predict the ecological impacts of management scenarios based on metrics values determine and then the best scenario-based TOPSIS method was selected. In addition, the implementation of the scenario of protection and restoration in the watershed Tajan will be reduce the number of patches from 7600 to 4657 patches in natural vegetation and will cause better connectivity that is a sign of decreasing degradation and fragmentation of the landscape in the study area. The approach used in this study the possibility of predicting the ecological results of land use for achieve the objectives of the assessment and better integrated management of the watershed changes provides. Manuscript profile
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        34 - ‌Analysis of key drivers that influence pattern of land cover in rural areas of East Guilan in order to making a foresight
        mohammad ali rahimi pour sheikhani nejad
        In this study in order to making a foresight and sustainable land planning in rural areas of east guilan as a special ecological zone including 744 villages Essential variables Were collected by using questionnaire & Delphi Method with cooperation of experts. Influe More
        In this study in order to making a foresight and sustainable land planning in rural areas of east guilan as a special ecological zone including 744 villages Essential variables Were collected by using questionnaire & Delphi Method with cooperation of experts. Influence coefficient was calculated. Number of influential variables on changes in land cover were 93 ones. (in the local, regional& national level) key drivers were detected by MIC-MAC. In order to creating scenario 19 influential key drivers on changes in land cover were homogenized by a 20-person professional pannel.9 main descriptors were defined, then for every descriptor 3 Variant were defined( express possible moods from most critical to the best). In the next step three scenario based on strong consistency with 15 years interval were obtained by Cross-Impact Balance matrix and Monte Carlo Simulation in Scenario Wizard. Finally, the resulting scenarios, based on the most effective in conservation of earth's natural coverage and continuity of stability, with titles balanced ecological changes, relatively balanced ecological changes and imbalanced ecological changes were named. Manuscript profile
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        35 - Evaluation of the participation of local communities in the development of tourism in the 22nd district of Tehran Municipality
        mohsen souri yousef ali ziyari naser eghbali
        10.30495/sarzamin.2023.71970.2087
        Neglecting local communities in the activities of the tourism industry is considered a fundamental gap in participatory planning in order to achieve sustainable development of tourism. The model of community-oriented tourism development tries to fill a part of this basi More
        Neglecting local communities in the activities of the tourism industry is considered a fundamental gap in participatory planning in order to achieve sustainable development of tourism. The model of community-oriented tourism development tries to fill a part of this basic gap. The current research, focusing on the community-oriented tourism development model, has sought to determine the participation status of the local residents of Sareen in the field of sustainable tourism, as well as introducing the participatory approach as a strategy for the sustainable development of tourism in the study area. The method of this research is descriptive-analytical, and two documentary and field methods have been used to explain and describe the topic. The purpose of this research was the relationship of social belonging and social participation with the development of sustainable tourism with the mediating role of perceived effects in the local community of Kashan. The participants were 120 people from the community of experts who used Scenario Wizad software in 8 scenarios between economic, social, institutional and environmental factors at the local level, all of which are scales of social belonging, social participation, perceived benefits and costs, and support. For the development of sustainable tourism, they have been examined for a better understanding. Finally, after the final analysis, a general summary of the presentation of the role of each factor has been determined.Keywords: participation, scenario wizard, region 22 Manuscript profile
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        36 - Application of Era-Based Cellular Planning for Crisis Management of Earthquake in Tehran with Emphasis on Scenario Planning
        mohadeseh Azimi A. A. Pourezzat آرین Gholipour A. A. Saadabadi
        Tehran including earthquake-prone cities in the world those Seismic scientists have repeatedly warned about the earthquake in it. Recently, scientists have considered scenario planning and comprehensive programs for disaster. Therefore, era-based cellular planning (ECP) More
        Tehran including earthquake-prone cities in the world those Seismic scientists have repeatedly warned about the earthquake in it. Recently, scientists have considered scenario planning and comprehensive programs for disaster. Therefore, era-based cellular planning (ECP) which has many scenarios to confront with probability future is suggested. For investigating the possibility of using this planning was interviewed with ten experts at universities and related organizations and used thematic technique for analysis data. 6 themes- how to scenario planning, relations between scenarios, step by step scenario planning and the most important scenarios for each phase - has finally been found. Paying attention to knowledge of scenario planning based on ECP's characteristics such as dividing scenarios to sub-scenarios, creating synergetic relations between sub-scenarios and consideration to era of each scenario is the innovation of research which shows that scenario planning is possible and it is necessary for studying in infrastructures to create better crisis management. Manuscript profile
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        37 - Qualitative Modeling for Managing Water Allocation in Rivers
        Sepideh Sahami Alireza Shokoohi Behnaz Khatar Farbod Chehrzad
        10.30495/wsrcj.2022.19231
        Background and Aim: Evaluating the response of rivers to natural changes and man-made manipulations are of great importance in managing river water quality. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the negative effects of quantitative management without qualitative More
        Background and Aim: Evaluating the response of rivers to natural changes and man-made manipulations are of great importance in managing river water quality. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the negative effects of quantitative management without qualitative management of river flow. In this regard, by simulating water quality in river exploitation scenarios based on environmental policies, including minimum flow allocation, reduction of flow quality from aquaculture standards, taking into account the quality factors and pollution caused by the development of marginal urban communities, will be discussed.Method: The present study, which should be omitted was conducted on the Azadrud River in the Sarvabad region of Kurdistan Province. In this regard, by measuring quantitative and qualitative parameters in two monthly periods, the QUAL2KW quality model was calibrated and validated. In the first part of the study, the quality of the river along 22 km was simulated by changing the flow rate based on flow allocation scenarios in the Tenant method, and in the second part, the values of qualitative parameters in different flow management scenarios were compared with the accepted standard values for aquaculture (fish).Results: Based on the results, while the minimum environmental discharge according to the Tenant method for the studied river is 1.1 m3/sec, the critical quality discharge for March and April were estimated at 7.7 and 10 m3/sec, respectively. The study showed that the poor tenant scenario is not suitable for allocating the minimum environmental flow to meet the quality requirements of the river at all. Conclusion: The results showed that the conventional flow allocation method, i.e., without considering the quality conditions of the river, is not suitable and can cause serious damage to the environmental conditions of the river. This study showed that ignoring the quality conditions at the time of flow allocation causes the ecological health of the stream to be lost and the river to not meet the required standard for aquaculture. Manuscript profile
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        38 - Investigation the effect of climate change on sugarcane growing season and water requirement under RCP scenarios
        Nozar Ghahraman Iman Babaeian Muhammadreza Tabatabaei
        Water and food security are the key challenges under climate change as both are highly affected by continuously changing climatic patterns. In this study, attempts have been made to investigate the effects of climate change on length of growing season and water use of s More
        Water and food security are the key challenges under climate change as both are highly affected by continuously changing climatic patterns. In this study, attempts have been made to investigate the effects of climate change on length of growing season and water use of sugarcane under RCP scenarios in 4 stations of Khuzestan province, southwest of Iran, namely Abadan, Ahvaz, Bostan and Dezful. The outputs of EC-EARTH global climate model data which were dynamically downscaled by Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) under RCP 8.5 and 4.5 scenarios were used as future projections. The climatic observed data of 4 study stations were collected and used to calibrate the model downscaled outputs. The changes of precipitation, crop evapotranspiration and length of growing period of sugarcane were worked out. The results showed that except for Dezful station, growing season rainfall would increase comparing to climatic normal. Besides, the length of growing season under RCP8.5 scenario would decrease significantly in all stations. Future trend of evapotranspiration changes were non-significant and less than 5%   Manuscript profile
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        39 - Effect of different land- use management scenarios on soil erosion using USLE model in Kalaybarchay watershed
        حبیب نظرنژاد اسلام قهرمان‌نژاد میرحسن میر‌یعقوب‌زاده
        Soil erosion is one of the environmental problems which can be considered as a threat for natural resources, agriculture and the environment. Thus, determining the temporal and spatial extent of soil erosion is an effective way to management of soil erosion and sediment More
        Soil erosion is one of the environmental problems which can be considered as a threat for natural resources, agriculture and the environment. Thus, determining the temporal and spatial extent of soil erosion is an effective way to management of soil erosion and sediment control through watershed management. Todays, the misuse of lands and converting forests and grasslands into agricultural land, overgrazing, tillage on steep slopes leads to increase soil erosion and sediment yield. Therefore, defining the contribution of different land uses has a significant role in preventing erosion and prioritization of land management activities The objective of this study is to estimate and compare the rate of soil erosion in in different land uses on the current status and prediction of erosion in Two main scenarios and each mail scenario has three sub-scenarios (25, 50 and 75 percent of area) at KalaybarChay watershed with an area of 452 km2 in the province of East Azerbaijan using USLE model. To predict the foregoing, land use map was prepared Using Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and TM Sensor of satellite image Landsat5 on the ENVI 4.3 software. After the preparation of USLE model factors includes R, K, LS, C and P model was performed and mean value of each factor was calculated and soil erosion map was prepared by multiplying the average values. Results showed that the average amount of soil erosion rate is 12.3 (ton/ha/yr). Also the highest and least rate of erosion is assigned on conversion of rangeland to dry farming scenario; and the rangeland to tree dryland scenario equal to 15.43 and 9.03 (ton/ha/yr), respectively. Manuscript profile
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        40 - Outlook for the effects of climate change on drought according to the fifth IPCC report (case study: Ilam)
        Hadi Ramezani Etedali Fariba hodabakhshi Elahe Kanani
        10.30495/wsrcj.2022.20455
        Background and Aim: The process of climate change, especially the change in temperature and precipitation, and its effect on the drought phenomenon constitute the most important topic of discussion in environmental sciences. Studying climate change and its effect on the More
        Background and Aim: The process of climate change, especially the change in temperature and precipitation, and its effect on the drought phenomenon constitute the most important topic of discussion in environmental sciences. Studying climate change and its effect on the severity and frequency of droughts in the coming decades can considerably contribute to the planning for the proper use of water resources and adapting to the destructive effects of droughts. To this end, based on the SDSM microscale method, precipitation and temperature during the 2020-2100 period were predicted in the present study using the large-scale CanESM2 model, and the effects of climate change on the meteorological drought in Ilam Province were studied using the SPI and RDI indices.Method: In this study, the required climatic data are obtained through one of the data reporting sites of the IPCC AR5. Twenty one CMIP5 models have been used to predict Precipitation and temperature parameters in the future. The weighting method of observational means was used to investigate the uncertainty caused by using the studied models. Then, using the SDSM model, meteorological data are generated under three scenarios: RCP 2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of the CanESM2 model. Model historical data from 1993 to 2005 will be used to analyze the SDSM model using NCEP re-analysis data, and data from 2006 to 2100 will be used to estimate future climate change. The SPI and RDI time series were calculated in three scales of 3, 6 and 12 months for the historical and future period. The intensity, duration and frequency of the drought, according to the run theory for the spi and RDI on scale 3, 6 and 12 months.Results: According to the results of the uncertainty analysis, the CanESM2 model had the highest weight compared to other models for both temperature and precipitation variables. Analysis of trend in precipitation and temperature data by non - parametric mann - kendall test showed that temperature in scenario rcp8.5 has a significant positive trend ( increasing ) at 0.01 and precipitation has decreasing trend. The results of drought monitoring showed that in both SPI and RDI indices, the frequency of dry period’s decreases with increasing time scale, which is accompanied by an increase in the severity and duration of drought. The RDI index shows higher drought characteristics than SPI due to considering the average temperature in calculating dry periods. The greatest drought in the historical period according to the SPI index on a 12-month scale has an intensity of 38.22 and a duration of 26 months. RDI index on a 12-month scale has an intensity of 39.14 and a duration of 26 months.The study area will experience more severe and longer droughts in the future according to all three scenarios than in the historical period. The severity of droughts produced by RCP4.5 RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios based on 12-month SPI is 11%, 52% and 65%.Conclusion: The results of the analysis with the SDSM model and the SPI and RDI drought indices indicated that in the future climatic conditions in the 2020-2100 period, an increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation are probable. To wit, temperature rises by 3.798 C and precipitation decreases by 6.8%. The results also revealed that the study area will experience more severe and longer droughts in the future than in the historical period under all three RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. As the time scale of the drought index increases, the severity and duration of the drought increases. The RDI index has a high behavioral similarity to the SPI, but the RDI index is sensitive to environmental changes and provides better results. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        41 - Identification of Appropriate Solutions for Managing Surface Water Consumption of West Azerbaijan Province Using Dynamic System Modeling
        Sheida Yousefi Seyed Mahdi Mirdamadi Seyed Jamal Farjollah Hosseini Farhad Lashgarara
        10.30495/wsrcj.2022.20005
        Background and Aim: The share of agricultural sector in West Azerbaijan province, Iran from surface water abstraction is 91.2%. Excessive consumption of water resources, drought and destruction of agricultural lands, dependence of work and livelihood of 1.2 million popu More
        Background and Aim: The share of agricultural sector in West Azerbaijan province, Iran from surface water abstraction is 91.2%. Excessive consumption of water resources, drought and destruction of agricultural lands, dependence of work and livelihood of 1.2 million population of province on the agricultural sector, the adoption of long-term development plans, have intensified the water crisis in agricultural sector. Therefore, managing the consumption of surface water is essential. This study investigates the effect of agricultural, economic, policy-making, climatic, socio-cultural and educational scenarios on management of surface water consumption and availability.Method: The present study is an applied research has been carried out using the dynamic system approach in order to achieve sustainable management of water resources in West Azerbaijan province. First, the statistical data from the previous years (1991-2018) are entered into the system using Excel and SPSS software. Then, the dynamic system model is developed in VENSIM software. To ensure the efficiency of the model in evaluating policies, the model validation test is performed. After making sure that the model works efficiency, population growth scenarios with different fertility rates, PS1 (2.11 children), PS2 (1.95 children), PS3 (1.5 children) and PS4 (2.6 Children) and climatic scenarios with a probability of 20% annual rainfall reduction, continuation of the current rainfall trend and 20% annual rainfall improvement are introduced to the model. Additionally, investment scenarios with the aim of 0.5% improvement in the annual irrigation efficiency and the crop scenario such as low-consumption cultivation pattern are introduced to the model. Moreover, the impacts of participatory and education scenarios, are simulated up to the horizon of 2051.Results: The results showed that in the validation test there is a high correlation between the simulated values ​​and the observed values ​​of surface water, and the model is effective in evaluating policies. Upon continuation of the rainfall current trend, available surface water decreases by 3.76% during the simulation period (2018-2051). Droughts intensify with a decrease of 20% of annual rainfall due to the direct effect of rainfall on runoff, available surface water is reduced by 20.54%. The largest decrease in the surface water content is related to the scenario of reduced rainfall (-20%) together with the scenario of increasing fertility rate (ps4), which cause a decrease in the available surface water by 46.15%. Population growth has increased the total water consumption and even agricultural water demand by 27% over the 2051 horizon. Simultaneously using low-consumption cultivation pattern scenarios, investment to improve irrigation efficiency, participatory activities and training programs to improve water management, water consumption decrease by 29.20% and agricultural water demand from the surface water decrease by 31.37% under these conditions, the available surface water improves by 9.12% to the horizon of 2051.Conclusion: The results showed that, it is necessary to review population scenarios at the national level. Also, the agricultural scenario of observing the pattern of low-consumption cultivation with reducing water demand per hectare is known as the best scenario and its application has increased the available surface water by 2.45 times.Keywords: Water resource management, Economic/policy-making scenarios, Climatic scenarios, West Azerbaijan provinceBackground and Aim: The share of agricultural sector in West Azerbaijan province, Iran from surface water abstraction is 91.2%. Excessive consumption of water resources, drought and destruction of agricultural lands, dependence of work and livelihood of 1.2 million population of province on the agricultural sector, the adoption of long-term development plans, have intensified the water crisis in agricultural sector. Therefore, managing the consumption of surface water is essential. This study investigates the effect of agricultural, economic, policy-making, climatic, socio-cultural and educational scenarios on management of surface water consumption and availability.Method: The present study is an applied research has been carried out using the dynamic system approach in order to achieve sustainable management of water resources in West Azerbaijan province. First, the statistical data from the previous years (1991-2018) are entered into the system using Excel and SPSS software. Then, the dynamic system model is developed in VENSIM software. To ensure the efficiency of the model in evaluating policies, the model validation test is performed. After making sure that the model works efficiency, population growth scenarios with different fertility rates, PS1 (2.11 children), PS2 (1.95 children), PS3 (1.5 children) and PS4 (2.6 Children) and climatic scenarios with a probability of 20% annual rainfall reduction, continuation of the current rainfall trend and 20% annual rainfall improvement are introduced to the model. Additionally, investment scenarios with the aim of 0.5% improvement in the annual irrigation efficiency and the crop scenario such as low-consumption cultivation pattern are introduced to the model. Moreover, the impacts of participatory and education scenarios, are simulated up to the horizon of 2051.Results: The results showed that in the validation test there is a high correlation between the simulated values ​​and the observed values ​​of surface water, and the model is effective in evaluating policies. Upon continuation of the rainfall current trend, available surface water decreases by 3.76% during the simulation period (2018-2051). Droughts intensify with a decrease of 20% of annual rainfall due to the direct effect of rainfall on runoff, available surface water is reduced by 20.54%. The largest decrease in the surface water content is related to the scenario of reduced rainfall (-20%) together with the scenario of increasing fertility rate (ps4), which cause a decrease in the available surface water by 46.15%. Population growth has increased the total water consumption and even agricultural water demand by 27% over the 2051 horizon. Simultaneously using low-consumption cultivation pattern scenarios, investment to improve irrigation efficiency, participatory activities and training programs to improve water management, water consumption decrease by 29.20% and agricultural water demand from the surface water decrease by 31.37% under these conditions, the available surface water improves by 9.12% to the horizon of 2051.Conclusion: The results showed that, it is necessary to review population scenarios at the national level. Also, the agricultural scenario of observing the pattern of low-consumption cultivation with reducing water demand per hectare is known as the best scenario and its application has increased the available surface water by 2.45 times. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        42 - Modeling and Bivariate Analysis of Meteorological Drought Using Data Generation with Climate Change Approach (Case Study: Lake Urmia)
        Farzad Khezri Mohsen Irandost Navid Jalalkamali Najme Yazdanpanah
        10.30495/wsrcj.2021.19213
        Background and Aim: Climate Climate change is one of the important factors that will affect different parts of human life on the planet and will have detrimental effects on the environment, socio-economic, and especially water resources. Knowledge of climate change More
        Background and Aim: Climate Climate change is one of the important factors that will affect different parts of human life on the planet and will have detrimental effects on the environment, socio-economic, and especially water resources. Knowledge of climate change can provide comprehensive plans in various areas of management regarding the monitoring of droughts and their potential risks. Drought can occur in any area, even wetlands. This phenomenon depends on various factors and parameters and one of the most important symbols of this phenomenon is the occurrence of drought is a decrease in rainfall and therefore the analysis of precipitation data is of special importance to study drought. The purpose of this study is to analyze drought variables using SPI and SPImod indices and detailed functions.Method:  In this study, to model the multivariate analysis of drought in Lake Urmia basin using RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 representative concentration pathway scenarios, data and models of atmospheric circulation of historical data (1991-2010) for three near horizons (2030- 2011), medium (2065-2046) and round (2099-2080) were simulated and produced. Then, using SPImod index and copula functions, drought multivariate analysis was performed in MATLAB software environment. In general, first, using the mentioned indicators (two indicators, SPI and SPImod), the characteristics of drought intensity and duration were extracted, then, using coding in MATLAB software environment, eight families of Archimedean detailed functions were used.Results: The results of multivariate analysis showed that the Joe copula function is the best copula function for drought multivariate analysis (For analysis of both severity and duration of drought for the study area). Also, the results of probability and the joint return period showed that in the coming periods, at least droughts of the same level as historical droughts and even more severe will occur. Thus, by studying the period of combined and conditional returns and Kendall, the results showed that at a certain critical probability level, the amount of Kendall return period is much more than the standard return period, so that this difference increases with increasing that certain amount.Conclusion: The results obtained with the climate change approach on the meteorological drought of Lake Urmia showed that in the coming periods we will see an increase in temperature, which will affect the rate of trade in the region and water resources, on the other hand, because the data Meteorology and hydrology are used to calculate the types of droughts, so droughts affected by climate change will be so that in future periods 46% to 48% of the months will be dry in different horizons. Finally, the results of the time series of indicators showed that during the statistical period at least 40% of the months were dry and this intensity of droughts in the Urmia station is much higher than others. The modified SPI largely eliminates the disadvantages of conventional SPIs and takes into account seasonal variations in precipitation in the calculation of the SPI index. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        43 - System Dynamic Modeling of Scenarios for the Protection of Groundwater Resources in Drought Conditions in South Khorasan Province, Iran
        Mostafa Teimoori Sayed Mehdi Mirdamadi Sayed Jamal Farajolah Hosseini Samad Rahimi Sooreh Mohamad ALI Afshar kazemi
        10.30495/wsrcj.2023.31551.10825
        Background and Aim: The purpose of this research is to model scenarios for the protection of underground water resources in South Khorasan province in drought conditions. Methods: In this regard, this problem was followed using the system dynamics approach and the beha More
        Background and Aim: The purpose of this research is to model scenarios for the protection of underground water resources in South Khorasan province in drought conditions. Methods: In this regard, this problem was followed using the system dynamics approach and the behavior of the reference variable "Volume of underground water resources of South Khorasan Province" was simulated against different scenarios during the years 2013 to 2014 through the use of Vensim software. The required information was collected by referring to relevant organizations such as South Khorasan Regional Water Organization, South Khorasan Agricultural Jihad Organization and Iran Statistics Center, and the input data of the model was called into the model in the form of an Excel file.  Results: The results of the research showed that applying the control scenario of water resources exploitation in normal drought conditions and drought with low intensity is useful, but applying this scenario in drought conditions of more than 20% will have negative effects on the economic indicators of the agricultural sector. Also, the fourth scenario of the cultivation pattern (emphasis on strategic crops) along with the fifth scenario of the cultivation pattern (drought-resistant crops) have brought the least pressure on underground water resources. Nevertheless, considering that cultivation pattern No. 4 has created the least added value, it cannot be an efficient pattern. Conclusion: According to the results of the research, if the severity of droughts increases in the coming years, but the current agricultural conditions of South Khorasan province continue in terms of cropping patterns, droughts will not have an effect on economic indicators, because in these conditions, farmers By breaking the ground and extracting more from underground water sources, they will compensate for the lack of rainfall and will show the negative effects of drought on the stock of underground water resources. Considering the effect of the cultivation pattern on underground water resources and economic indicators, it is necessary to think of measures to change the cultivation pattern. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        44 - Developing optimal scenarios of creative regeneration of gorgan city
        kazem taghinejad saeed yazdani Ali Reza Sheikholeslami Abbas Malek Hosseini
        10.30495/jest.2019.46146.4769
        Background and Objective: in order to address the problems and problems of city monuments, the urban knowledge is obliged to replace it in a creative and creative way to recreate it. Therefore, future futures studies have emerged as a new paradigm for long - term view o More
        Background and Objective: in order to address the problems and problems of city monuments, the urban knowledge is obliged to replace it in a creative and creative way to recreate it. Therefore, future futures studies have emerged as a new paradigm for long - term view on issues facing cities, with the aim of responding to unpredictable problems, futures futures and desirable futures in recent decades. In this regard, the present study attempts to formulate the optimal scenarios of creative regeneration of the city of gorgan city.Material and Methodology: in this study, first with the environment scan and Delphi method, 40 primary factors are extracted in four different social - cultural fields, management and planning, physical factors and economic factors, and then by using the Delphi method. In the next step, using structural analysis in MICMAC software has been attempted to analyze the matrix.Findings: Based on the results of the Wizard Scenario, Scenario Nos. (2, 3, 4, 6, 11, 12, 14, 15 and 16) are obtained as static or unbelievable scenarios. The historical context of Gorgan is imaginable.Discussion and Conclusion: Thus, in the short term (1404), the scenario of gradual decline in the quality of historical texture in Gorgan, with the short-term improvement of management factors and the decline of economic factors, is the most likely scenario, but in the long-term future, the cross-sectional improvement of management factors and policy inefficiencies may provide the opportunity to enhance economic factors. Do not allow this scenario to move to a disaster scenario. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        45 - Prediction of the results of implementation of air pollution control strategies using the Geo-Artificial Neural Network for Tehran metropolis
        Mehran Ghoddousi Farideh Atabi Jafar Nouri Alireza Gharagozlu
        10.22034/jest.2019.23618.3275
        Background and Objective: Predicting the results of the implementation of strategic air pollution control policies is the first and most important challenge for Tehran municipality. The main objective of this study was to define a specific method for assessing the resul More
        Background and Objective: Predicting the results of the implementation of strategic air pollution control policies is the first and most important challenge for Tehran municipality. The main objective of this study was to define a specific method for assessing the result of urban air pollution controlling strategies in Tehran metropolis using a multi-dimensional decision support system. Method: First, the most appropriate air pollution control strategies were selected based on existing conditions and structures in each zone of the city and then weighed according to selected criteria. Based on the spatial monitoring of air pollution formation patterns in the past and present time, as well as the analysis of their effects, the results of implementing air pollution control strategies were simulated using Geo-Artificial Neural Network models. In the next step, variables of time series and uncertainty variables were simulated for predicting the potential future air pollution patterns and finally, the results of the defined control strategies were evaluated based on spatial thematic layers. Findings: Definition of final clusters of air quality control strategies, weighting and ranking of the selected policies based on defined criteria have been the first findings of this research. Also, extraction of time series zoning based on the data collected during a four-year period, as well as simulation of the baseline scenario models and spatial data layers of their output were among the achievements of this study. Finally, the modeling of the predictive variables, design of the air quality control software and the prediction of the results of the the implementation of air pollution control strategies were presented. The results showed that by applying the Geo-Artificial Neural Network models (GANN), the urban managers could effectively predict the results of implementing the air pollution control strategies. Discussion and Conclusion: The results of this study showed that the spatio-temporal analysis supports the process of evaluation and prediction of the effects of pollution and can be used to determine the best pollution control strategies for the zones affected by air pollution. The final results of GANN models indicate that if the selected strategies are implemented based on the scenarios defined, in the "optimistic scenario", air quality in all areas of Tehran is completely stable and remains healthy, while in the "ordinary scenario" will reduce the level of air pollution up to 70 percent in the autumn and winter season if the selected strategies are implemented compared to the lack of implementation of control plans. The final model of the verification process model also confirmed that the pattern of pollution predicted by the model in each of the urban areas had a proper trend and adaptation compared to the pattern of contamination obtained from the actual results of the field data.   Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        46 - Management of energy carrier’s consumption and emission of pollutants using the Leap model in Lea Industrial Park of Qazvin province
        mohammadsaied mohammadi Seyed Mostafa Khezri Alireza Vafaeinejad
        10.30495/jest.2022.58253.5274
        Background and Objective: Industrial-economic development in developing countries has created a double need for greater access to energy carriers compared to developed countries. In addition, improving living standards in developing societies in recent decades has led t More
        Background and Objective: Industrial-economic development in developing countries has created a double need for greater access to energy carriers compared to developed countries. In addition, improving living standards in developing societies in recent decades has led to an increase in the demand for energy carriers for access to greater facilities and amenities. In this study, the effect of applying different policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and energy savings in Iranian industries has been investigated and evaluated by the energy planning model. Material and Methodology: First the input values of various energy sources such as gas, electricity and fossil fuels in the industrial production process were investigated. Then, the factors affecting the production of greenhouse gases in industries were identified, then the past trend and the current state of Iranian industries and government policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as well as the development of new energy efficiency technologies in industry were used to estimate energy demand. In line with this goal, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in a baseline scenario in accordance with the continuation of the current trend (BAU) in current industries and also to determine the current and future demand of Iranian industries during the years 2019 to 2035 has been studied. Findings: four alternative scenarios of energy saving technologies and reduction of carbon dioxide emissions were considered, including industry development and capacity building, possible increase in fuel and electricity prices, implementation of fuel consumption standards, and use of CHP technologies for a period of 15 years. Therefore, the combined implementation of these two policies will lead to a reduction of 8 million tons of emissions (equivalent to a 13% reduction in emissions) equivalent to total CO2. Discussion and Conclusion: The results show that the total CO2 emissions equivalent to the industry will increase from 61 million tons in the baseline scenario to 53 million tons in the 2035 emission reduction scenario. However, due to the implementation of the fuel change policy, the total amount of carbon dioxide emissions has been reduced to 58 million tons (equivalent to 4.9% reduction) and also the implementation of energy efficiency policy has led to the emission of 55 million tons (equivalent to 9.8% reduction) equivalent CO2 will run until 2035. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        47 - Optimization of future land use changes using CLUE-s model in the Ramian Township
        Majid Mohammady Jafar Dastorani
        10.22034/jest.2018.18459.2721
        Background and Objective: land use changes and conversion of natural resources to agricultural and residential area is an important problem in many countries. Land use change is an essential determinant factor in hydrological processes and is known as an affecting facto More
        Background and Objective: land use changes and conversion of natural resources to agricultural and residential area is an important problem in many countries. Land use change is an essential determinant factor in hydrological processes and is known as an affecting factor on hydrological parameters such as runoff volume, flood frequency, base flow, subsurface and surface flow. Regard to importance of land use many models was presented to simulate land use changes. The main objective of this research was to simulate the land use changes of Ramian Township for future as a case study site.   Material and Methodology: The main objective of this research was to simulate the land use changes of Ramian Township as a case study site. At first, land use maps related to years of 2000 and 2012 were prepared using remote sensing techniques and Landsat images, and then CLUE-s model was applied to simulate land use map of 2030 and create scenarios. Four scenarios were designed using CLUE-s model and define some limitation of land use change. Discussion & Conclusion:  the results showed that the main land use change in Ramian Township was the conversion of forest and rangeland areas to agriculture and residential land. 18.07 km2 of forest and range were converted to agriculture and residential area. Of course in the designed scenarios conversion of this land use types were limited at the specific locations. Land use simulation and scenario design can be very useful for programmers and natural resources managers. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        48 - The Effect of Climate Change on Evaporation variations from the chah nimeh reservoirs of sistan
        hossein bazzi hossein ebrahimi babak aminnejad
        10.30495/jest.2020.48196.4861
        Background and Objective: Evaporation is one of the wasteful methods of water resources in geographical areas and is of special importance in the study of water resources.Material and Methodology: In the present study, databases including Chah Nimeh dam evaporation data More
        Background and Objective: Evaporation is one of the wasteful methods of water resources in geographical areas and is of special importance in the study of water resources.Material and Methodology: In the present study, databases including Chah Nimeh dam evaporation data and large-scale network data have been prepared. The SDSM model is used to simulate the evaporation of the coming decades under three scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The basic modeling period is from 1983 to 2005 (23 years)Findings: Comparison of evaporation estimates for the next two time periods and under different scenarios showed that for the time period 2100-2080 scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 estimated higher values for evaporation. Examination of inputs showed that air temperature, geopotential height and wind indices have the greatest impact on the evaporation of wells in SistanDiscussion and Conclusion: The results of this study showed that the rate of evaporation in the period of increasing 2100-2080 will experience more than 300 mm per year. The greatest increase in evaporation will be in the warm period of the year. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        49 - Evaluation of the effects of SSP scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) on water resources and agricultural crop in Hashtgerd region with the approach of applying an adaptation strategy
        Mostafa Rezayi zaman Ali Reza Massah Bavani Saman Javadi
        10.30495/jest.2023.65251.5606
        Background and Objective: Considering the not very suitable state of the country's water resources as well as the phenomenon of climate change and its effects, simulating the state of climate change in the future and evaluating its effects in order to reduce vulnerabili More
        Background and Objective: Considering the not very suitable state of the country's water resources as well as the phenomenon of climate change and its effects, simulating the state of climate change in the future and evaluating its effects in order to reduce vulnerability and deal with it can be very important in future decisions. In this regard, in order to reduce the negative effects of climate change and benefit from its possible positive effects in watersheds, various adaptation strategies are presented. In this research, adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector under the CMIP6-SSP climate change scenarios has been investigated and evaluated. Considering the characteristics of the Hashtgerd region and the risks that threaten agriculture in the region, this research tries to have a comprehensive view of this system. For this purpose, adaptation strategies to reduce the negative effects of climate change in the agricultural sector were evaluated. Material and Methodology:  In this research, the SWAT model was used to simulate and evaluate the adaptive strategy in Hashtgerd region in 2018. To model climate change conditions in the region, the NorESM2-MM climate model related to the 6th IPCC report and different SSP scenarios (SSP1.26, SSP2.54, SSP3.70, SSP 5.85) were used and minimum and maximum temperature data and the precipitation were downscaled for the years 2020 to 2049. After calculating the changes in temperature and rainfall compared to the current conditions, the values ​​of these changes were applied to the SWAT model in order to investigate its effect on the water resources of Hashtgerd region. Finally, the values ​​of water stress and crop performance were estimated under the conditions of climate change. Findings: The results indicated an average increase in water stress and also a decrease in yield of crops other than corn in all SSP scenarios. After evaluating the effects of climate change in the region, in order to adapt to these changes in the agricultural sector, two adaptation strategies were used 1) The strategy of changing the cultivation pattern from tomato and alfalfa crops to wheat and barley and 2) Changing the cultivation pattern from tomato and alfalfa to corn. These strategies were evaluated with criteria such as changes in water stress and yield of crops compared to BAU conditions. Discussion and Conclusion: The results showed that changing the cultivation pattern to wheat and barley has reduced the water stress of regional crops. In general, in the strategy of changing the cultivation pattern, the yield of all three crops, wheat, barley and corn, was increased compared to the BAU strategy. In the strategy of changing the cultivation pattern to corn, a significant reduction in water stress was estimated and, accordingly, the yield of this product was acceptable. This increase in performance is due to the reduction of water stress caused by the increase in available water. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        50 - Simulation of the Effect of Climate Change on Yield and Water Use Efficiency of Potato (Solanum Tuberosum L.) in Ardabil
        Atousa Shafaroodi Abdolghayom Gholipouri Broumand Salahi
        10.30495/jest.2021.49801.4934
        Background and Objective: Climate change causes changes in rainfall patterns, temperatures and their amount, and these changes can affect plant performance. In this study, the efficiency of DSSAT model in simulating tuber yield and water use efficiency of potato plant u More
        Background and Objective: Climate change causes changes in rainfall patterns, temperatures and their amount, and these changes can affect plant performance. In this study, the efficiency of DSSAT model in simulating tuber yield and water use efficiency of potato plant under future climate change in different irrigation treatments and cultivar as an adaptation strategy was investigated.Material and Methodology: For this purpose, the precipitation data, minimum and maximum temperatures were produced using the LARS-WG5 statistical exponential micro-scale model (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator) under the HadCM3 general circulation model. The A1B scenario was applied to future periods of 2011-‎‎2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100 and the basic period 1988-2016. DSSAT model and SUBSTOR-Potato model were used to simulate potato growth and yield. Prior to use, field data collected from Ardebil, Iran that were calibrated and validated. Then the values of tuber yield and water use efficiency were simulated in future periods. Three irrigation treatments were used such as full irrigation (FI), 15% less than control (LI1) and 30% less than control treatment (LI2), with five potato cultivars Agria (the conventional cultivation of the area), Caeser, Savalan, clones 397081-1, and 397082-10 with 3 replications.Finding: According to the results, under the A1B scenario at the irrigation levels of FI and LI1, simulated values of tuber yield and water use efficiency showed the highest values for 2040 and 2070 compared to the basal period. It was also simulated by selecting Savalan cultivars, 397081-1, and 397082-10 the highest increase for tuber yield and water use efficiency values for 2040 and 2070 periods.Discussion and Conclusion: In following, The Less reduction in percentage of yield allowed the low irrigation (LI1) to replace the full irrigation (FI) treatment in future periods compared to the baseline period. Because of the importance of conserving and saving water resources in future climate ‎change periods, irrigation of 15% less than full irrigation is recommended for irrigation of potato ‎fields. The results of the simulation of water use efficiency can also emphasize the use of irrigation treatment 15% less than the control. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        51 - Forecasting the current and future range of Bromus tomentellus Boiss species under two climate warning models (Rcp4.5 and Rcp8.5) in rangeland ecosystems of Ardabil province
        Javad Motamedi Morteza Khodagholi Razieh Sabohi Ali Reza Eftekhari
        10.30495/jest.2023.66908.5666
        Background and Objective: Climate change has been a serious issue in the last two decades and many studies have focused on its various aspects. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the potential habitat of rangeland index species, currently and in the coming years, u More
        Background and Objective: Climate change has been a serious issue in the last two decades and many studies have focused on its various aspects. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the potential habitat of rangeland index species, currently and in the coming years, under climate warning models. Therefore, in the present study, by preparing a prediction map of the current and future range of Bromus tomentellus species, under two climate warning models (Rcp4.5 and Rcp8.5 scenarios), its movement, in latitudes, at the level of rangeland ecosystems of Ardabil province was investigated. Material and Methodology: For this purpose, in the growing season of 2020, from 19 bioclimatic variables and three physiographic variables and a logistic regression model, to determine the quantity of climate change in the next three decades (2050) and to carefully examine its effects on the change in the range of B. tomentellus species now and in the future, used. The output maps are divided into four categories with the probability of occurrence between zero and one; unsuitable habitat (0-0.25), almost suitable habitat (0.25-0.5), habitat with high suitability (0.5-0.75) and habitat with very high suitability (0.75-1), it was grouped and based on the coefficients of the variables in the regression relationships, the effective variables for the current and future range were introduced. Findings: The average annual temperature (BIO1), the annual temperature range (BIO7) and the average temperature of the coldest season (BIO11) are the most important for the suitability of the habitat, and their values increase with the harsher climatic conditions. The average annual temperature of its suitable habitats will increase by 1.6 to 2.1 degrees Celsius in the next three decades. The height of its suitable habitats will increase from 115 to 190 meters. As a result, the level of its suitable habitat decreases in response to climate change. Also, under climate scenarios, 30.2% of suitable climate habitats will be lost in 2050, and current unsuitable habitats will increase by 29.4%. Discussion and Conclusion: In general; climate change and increase in temperature will cause B. tomentellus species to move to higher latitudes along the altitude gradient. Therefore, in the next three decades, there is a risk of removing it from the rangeland ecosystems of Ardabil province. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        52 - Investigating the role of market timing as a model and investment strategy on the performance of capital market professionals
        Behrouz Nazari mahdi Madanchi Zaj HAMIDREZA KORDLOUIE
        AbstractThe purpose of this study is to study the market timing and provide a model for investors to make the right and responsible decisions against their capital and tries to examine the capabilities of man-angers of mutual funds in the Iranian capital market, whether More
        AbstractThe purpose of this study is to study the market timing and provide a model for investors to make the right and responsible decisions against their capital and tries to examine the capabilities of man-angers of mutual funds in the Iranian capital market, whether they are time skills Have market assessments in choosing their investment portfolio or not. Therefore, the variables of the present study, using the implementation of a combined method of multi-attribute decision making and scenario analysis of "expert system proposed by Hosseini Nasab" [2], we used the A N P method. The results showed that it is possible to provide a comprehensive "timing" model for the capital market and In-prove the performance of professionals, and the future movements of the market can be predicted using the market timing strategy; Also, comparing the models of market timing strategy, the results showed that the timing strategy of seasons and dates, in comparison with the strategies of using moving average and seasonal timing of Sai Harding, have an effect on managers' performance and predicting future market movements; But compared to Mark Walker's seasonal timing strategies and Hirsch's best six-month timing strategies, it is less effective. Manuscript profile
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        53 - Future scenarios of the banking industry
        morteza TAVAKOL Akbar Etebarian Amirhushang Heidari Amirreza Naghsh
        Changes in customer needs, behaviors and expectations,Trends in digital technology, banking business trends and the emergence of non-bank competitors (fintech), intensifying market competition between banks and non-bank credit institutions, changing pricing models and c More
        Changes in customer needs, behaviors and expectations,Trends in digital technology, banking business trends and the emergence of non-bank competitors (fintech), intensifying market competition between banks and non-bank credit institutions, changing pricing models and costs of banking services, changing the ecosystem of banking activities and rules and The new regulations have challenged banks. The advent of distributed networks such as blockchain, by creating transparency in transactions and open participation in operations, has moved the banking and business processes towards an automated, coordinated and unreliable global framework; While aiming to reduce intermediaries, it also warns banks of the risk of eliminating banks or reducing customers. The present study examines the banking industry by asking the question "What are the future scenarios of the Iranian banking industry?" with library studies and combining two qualitative and quantitative approaches, "Schwartz critical uncertainties" and "Cross impact analysis" and constructing four scenarios: "Phoenix Rises" "Busy Architects-Drugs Awake" "Farang City" and "Burnt City", and analysis of factors and drivers affecting the banking industry, pave the way for charting the future of the country's banking industry and creating and maintaining their competitive advantage has done. Manuscript profile
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        54 - Application of stress test models in risk management
        Marziyeh Nourahmadi
        Financial networks are potential channels for the propagation of crises shocks which are considered as the main factor for systematic stability. The term stress test refers to different techniques and methods used to assess the impact of events or combinations of events More
        Financial networks are potential channels for the propagation of crises shocks which are considered as the main factor for systematic stability. The term stress test refers to different techniques and methods used to assess the impact of events or combinations of events, which may occur normally for business units. The methodology of this research is based on historical cognitive method through library method and aimed at knowledge development using scientific resources such as books and articles. In this study, after a short review on the application of stress tests in different researches, we will study the different aspects of the application of stress tests, then we deal with the steps to apply stress tests in risk management using different charts and diagrams. Then we will introduce variety of different methods to run stress tests and will explain the advantages and disadvantages of stress tests, and finally we will offer some recommendations regarding the implementation of this method.   Manuscript profile
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        55 - A Fast Strategy to Find Solution for Survivable Multicommodity ‎Network‎
        M. Anisi
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        56 - Sustainable Development of Ecotourism in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiyari Province, Iran, a Scenario Study
        Farahnaz Ebrahimi Vahid Etemad
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        57 - Find the Best Answer in the Conflict Scenario of Fighters with Electronic Warfare and a set of Defense Radars without Having Complete Information from Each other
        Houman Akbarzade KhoshkeRood Seyed Mohammad Alavi
        10.52547/mjtd.10.2.61
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        58 - Identification and analysis of drivers affecting the development of the urban tourism industry with an emphasis on foresight and scenario writing (case study: Zanjan city)
        Ali Khaksari Rafsanjani Akbar Lotfi
        10.30495/juepd.2023.1976932.1134
        In planning and managing of tourism development using modern methods is highly important. One of these new methods is the use of the future-research method and the use of different scenarios for the development of tourism, which by using these methods tries to draw diff More
        In planning and managing of tourism development using modern methods is highly important. One of these new methods is the use of the future-research method and the use of different scenarios for the development of tourism, which by using these methods tries to draw different futures according to the key effective factors for the development of Zanjan tourism. The purpose of the current research is future research and scenario planning in the development and improvement of the tourism industry in City of Zanjan based on the method of cross-effects analysis. It is exploratory and based on future-research and scenario planning. In this research, in order to find key factors, available documents, library documents and semi-open interviews were used, and after identifying the components, MIC MAC and Scenario Wizard software were used to analyze and prioritize the factors. Analysis of 13 factors were selected as key factors. These 13 factors respectively are: urban integrated management, implementing encouraging policies, decreasing the constraints, internal security, private sector, citizen participation, NGOs, urban branding, strategic location of the city, the international role of the city and province, enhancing environmental awareness, economic growth rate, religious and ritual events, qualitative and quantitative development of handicrafts.The 13 factors were used to write the scenarios. Consequently by using experts opinions and setting up panels, 46 desirable to undesirable cases could be classified and finally 4 scenarios with high compatibility for the city of Zanjan identified. 3 scenarios were in desirable situation and one in critical situation for the city of Zanjan was imaginable. At the end in order to pass through the critical situation to desirable situation strategies and plans were suggested.Extended AbstractIntroductionThe strategic location of Zanjan province and city of Zanjan on the transit route from the center to the west and northwest of the country and the existence of historical, cultural and natural tourist attractions of Zanjan make the province and city a suitable case for attracting tourists and use it a tool for development. Although with such capacities the province has not adequately used them for its development. Tourism development needs to be redefined by provincial managers and planners so that they can reach a suitable future for the economic and social progression. By examining the effective components in the tourism development of City of Zanjan, the first and most important question that comes to mind is in which direction the future of tourism in City of Zanjan is moving and how and with what factors and components this future can be achieved and be led to the desired future?Theoretical foundations of research:Foresight: Ben Martin defines foresight as follows: "Foresight is the process of systematic effort to look at the long-term future of science, technology, environment, economy and society, with the aim of identifying emerging common technologies. And the strengthening of strategic research areas, which probably bring the most economic and social benefits. (Nazimi and Qadiri, 1385, 27)Scenario: A scenario refers to stories related to several plausible futures that a government, organization or company will likely face.Tourism: "The set of activities of a person or people who travel to a place other than their normal place of life and stay there for at least one night and at most one year, and the purpose of their travel is to spend leisure time. Of course, goals such as employment and earning are not included in it.”              ( Heydari Chianeh, 2009,9) Accordingly, those who include this definition are also called touristsUrban tourism: Urban tourism refers to tourism activities that take place in urban areas and include interactions between visitors and urban environments.Research materials and methods:In terms of practical purpose, in terms of method, the present research has been carried out qualitatively and in some cases, quantitatively and qualitatively mixed at the exploratory level and based on the future-research approach and scenario planning. In this research, expert Delphi model, MIC MAC and Scenario Wizard software, future research and scenario planning approaches have been used.Research findings13 factors were extracted from among the influential factors in the findings of the research and the effective factors in the upper-level documents of the province, which seem to have a high impact on the prosperity and development of the tourism industry in City of Zanjan, which are the key effective factors in tourism and attracting tourists, were identified as follows: integrated urban management and application of incentive policies, reducing restrictions, internal security, private sector, citizen participation, non-governmental organizations, urban branding, strategic location of the city, international role of the city and province , promotion of environmental awareness, economic growth rate, ritual and religious ceremonies, quantitative and qualitative development of handicraftsTo write the scenario, a total of 46 possible situations were determined for 13 identified key factors. These situations are considered for each variable from a very desirable situation to a critical situation. Scenario Wizard software with heavy calculations makes it possible to extract all kinds of scenarios, including strong scenarios, scenarios with weak probability, scenarios with compatibility and high compatibility. The scenarios presented by the scenario wizard are: 4 scenarios with high compatibility, 6222 scenarios with weak compatibility and 206 incompatible scenarios. The results show that 4 scenarios are more likely to occur in the future tourism development of the province.Conclusions and suggestions:According to the findings, scenarios 1, 2, and 3 are the best leading scenarios for the development of tourism in the province, although scenario 1 is more favorable and ideal than the other two scenarios. Scenarios 2 and 3 are also considered favorable scenarios, which are different from the first scenario only in the two factors of internal security and strategic location of the city, and are on intermediate and relatively favorable scenarios. Scenario 4 will also be a critical scenario, and with the realization of this scenario, the situation of the influencing factors of tourism development will reach the worst state. In this scenario, all 13 key factors of the trend are on the verge of crisis or crisis, this scenario does not have positive points and favorable key factors. As a result, with the realization of the first scenario, 100% of the determining factors of tourism development will be realized. All 13 key factors in this scenario are desirable key factors and none of the factors were in a static or critical trend and with the passage of time, there are positive changes in the tourism development of City of Zanjan. The possible situations selected in this scenario are: strengthening development-oriented and program-oriented management and applying extensive incentive policies, removing some of the disturbing restrictions to attract tourists, strengthening internal security, paying attention to the private sector and large-scale investment. The high participation of citizens, in the extensive strengthening of non-governmental organizations, in the field of branding, the creation of new features and the development of current unique features, the development of relations between Iran and Europe and the colorful role of the corridor from the center to the northwest, the transformation of the province into the regional center of the northwest country, extensive production of educational content to increase environmental awareness, positive economic growth rate, highlighting of existing ceremonies through media power, state of development and extensive support of handicrafts in City of Zanjan, all of these factors have a great positive impact on the development of tourism. As a result, the perspective of this scenario will show an ideal situation of tourism in City of Zanjan. Considering that Zanjan province and especially City of Zanjan has high tourism capacities, but this potential has not been fully used yet. In this regard, there is a need to provide proposals to improve the current situation and clarify a clear path to achieve that desirable future, considering the favorable scenario for the future of Zanjan tourism. These suggestions based on the desired scenarios are as follows:Reviewing the current management that has little integration and moving towards development-oriented, target-oriented and integrated urban management and using experienced and expert managers in organizations, institutions and sectors that are interested in city tourism, removing or reducing some of Limitations in the future plans, optimal use of the strategic location of City of Zanjan, holding festivals, as well as holding craft exhibitions, modifying the norms and behaviors of accepting tourists, participation of local people in urban development plans and programs, use of branding. religion of the city, identification and investigation of regions and areas with potential for tourism and introducing them to domestic and foreign investors, development of infrastructure, improvement and strengthening of service and entertainment centers, improvement of city entrances, strengthening and development of handicraft and traditional industries of the province with Cultural and artistic attitude in relation to the development of the tourism industry. 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        59 - Service Process Modeling through Simulation and Scenario Development for Insurance Analysis
        Reza Shakerin Abbas Toloie Eshlaghy
        10.30495/jsm.2020.677238
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        60 - Marketing Strategy Evaluation by Integrating Dynamic Systems Modeling and Network Data Envelopment Analysis
        Mojtaba Kaveh Saeid Saeida Ardekani Seyed Mohammad Tabatabaeenasab
        10.30495/jsm.2020.673643
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        61 - Futurology of Multi-Criteria Decision Making Techniques Using Philosophical Assumptions of Paradigms in Scenario Writing
        Mehdi Roghani Mahmoud Modiri Kiamars Fathi Hafshjani AbuTurab Alirezaei
        10.30495/jsm.2021.678899
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        62 - Designing Cell Production Arrangement Scenarios with the Approach of Artificial Neural Networks
        Mahdi Ahmadipanah Kamyar Chalaki Roya Shakeri
        10.30495/jsm.2022.1964485.1673
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        63 - Scenario Development of Talent Management System in Iran's National Oil Products Distribution Company
        Gholam Reza Ghadiri Nezhad Mojtaba Rajab Baigy abdolkhalegh gholami chenarestan olya
        10.30495/jsm.2023.1984177.1812
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        64 - بررسی تغییرات رواناب حوضه آبریز تحت شرایط تغییراقلیم (مطالعه موردی حوضه آبریز کارون در محل پل شالو)
        زهرا رامک جهانگیر پرهمت حسین صدقی ابراهیم فتاحی مهران لشنی زند
        تغییر اقلیم یکی از مهمترین چالش هایی است که رژیم رواناب رودخانه ها را تحت تأثیر قرار داده است. شرایط اقلیمی گرمتر باعث تشدید چرخه آب، تغییر بارش و تغییر در مقدار و زمان ظهور رواناب می گردد. در رابطه با این موضوع، مطالعات بسیاری در نقاط مختلف جهان صورت گرفته که نتایج متف More
        تغییر اقلیم یکی از مهمترین چالش هایی است که رژیم رواناب رودخانه ها را تحت تأثیر قرار داده است. شرایط اقلیمی گرمتر باعث تشدید چرخه آب، تغییر بارش و تغییر در مقدار و زمان ظهور رواناب می گردد. در رابطه با این موضوع، مطالعات بسیاری در نقاط مختلف جهان صورت گرفته که نتایج متفاوتی حاصل شده است. با توجه به اهمیت حوضه آبریز کارون از نظر منابع آبی و عدم مطالعات کافی تحت سناریوهای مختلف در این حوضه، در تحقیق حاضر تلاش شده است تا تاثیر این پدیده بر رواناب حوضه مذکور مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. در ابتدا مقادیر دما و بارش ماهانه مدل HadCM3 تحت سه سناریوی A1B ، A2 و  B1 با استفاده از مدل LARS-WG به لحاظ مکانی و سپس با استفاده از روش عامل تغییر به لحاظ زمانی کوچک مقیاس گردیدند. در مرحله بعد برای شبیه سازی رواناب حوضه از مدل SRM استفاده گردید که پس از واسنجی، با معرفی مقادیر دما و بارش کوچک مقیاس شده دوره آتی به مدل، رواناب حوضه مورد شبیه‌سازی قرار گرفت. نتایج تحقیق نشان از افزایش دما و تغییر در بارندگی دوره 2039-2011 نسبت به دوره پایه را دارد. همچنین مقایسه رواناب دوره 2039-2011 با دوره پایه نشان می دهد که تغییراقلیم باعث تغییر در رژیم رودخانه خواهد شد و در آینده، دبی رودخانه در ماه های خشک و کم آب، کمتر و در ماه های با جریان سیلابی، بیشتر خواهد شد. همچنین، بیشترین کاهش دبی رودخانه در ماه سپتامبر رخ خواهد داد و این ماه به لحاظ منابع آبی بحرانی خواهد بود. علاوه بر این، بیشترین افزایش دبی رودخانه مربوط به فصل ذوب برف خواهد بود که این موضوع لزوم برنامه ریزی در زمینه مدیریت منابع آب این حوضه را نشان می دهد. Manuscript profile
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        65 - anking Contract Types in Construction Projects with Scenario Planning Approach and Max-Min Method (case study: ghaem specialist group)
        Hamid Mirzaie meghdad haji mohammad ali jahromi
        Regarding to the policy of country’s motion towards development, every year a high percentage of annual budget of government is dedicated to civil projects. Implementation of these projects requires spending time, cost and other resources. Lack of proper contract More
        Regarding to the policy of country’s motion towards development, every year a high percentage of annual budget of government is dedicated to civil projects. Implementation of these projects requires spending time, cost and other resources. Lack of proper contract arrangement and unfair distribution of responsibilities and authorities have led to many challenges among projects’ employers and contractors. On one hand, civil projects confront with threats and opportunities regarding the key elements of project like time, cost and quality in order to achieve the specified goals. The roots of most threats ad chances can be find in a set of uncertainty conditions that regarding to varying and unstable conditions of country, they have great effect on the process of project execution, and the probable conditions shall be recognized and predicted. Types of civil project contracts were conducted by multi-indicator decision-making techniques and approach of scenario planning. At first, types of contracts being able to conclude in organization were recognized. Then, the options’ rating indicators was specified by studying the organization’s strategy document. Moreover, to determine the uncertainty, by reviewing the literature we identified the effective factors on indicators and they were classified into under control and out of control factors. Uncertainties were specified through out of control factors, and scenarios were developed. Ultimately, by Max-Min method, strategic options were rated according to 4factor method, E.P.C, design and construction method, P.E, 3 factorial method and turning key method, respectively. Manuscript profile
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        66 - Development scenarios of Tehran metropolis with a policy approach
        morteza mohammadkhani Zainab Krake Abadi Abbas Argan
        AbstractUrban development policy is an important issue in the field of urban development and planning. This issue refers to solving how to create prosperous cities and communities, improve the quality of life of citizens and meet current and future needs. In this regard More
        AbstractUrban development policy is an important issue in the field of urban development and planning. This issue refers to solving how to create prosperous cities and communities, improve the quality of life of citizens and meet current and future needs. In this regard, the present research has been carried out in order to compile the prosperity scenarios of Tehran metropolis based on the principles of future studies. This research is practical in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method and based on future research approach. The statistical population was 20 urban experts based on snowball sampling. 49 primary drivers in 6 statistical categories and identified by structural interaction analysis and scenario writing methods have been processed in MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. The results of this research show that the golden scenario or high prosperity of Tehran metropolis will happen when the quality of life factors face a growing trend and the status of social cohesion and equality factors are in line with the prosperity of Tehran metropolis. In fact, in these scenarios, the key factors are more favorable than critical. This group of scenarios includes only the first scenario among the 21 believable scenarios, and with 100% favorability, it prevails over other conditions (static and critical) that show a positive and hopeful state in front of the urban prosperity of Tehran metropolis. Manuscript profile
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        67 - Makran regional development policy with a future research approach
        abolfazl Shahali rahim sarvar
        Among the criteria of regional planning to determine inequalities is determining the status of regions according to development indicators. In the literature and development policy, it is generally believed that the growth of GDP and high per capita income is the main a More
        Among the criteria of regional planning to determine inequalities is determining the status of regions according to development indicators. In the literature and development policy, it is generally believed that the growth of GDP and high per capita income is the main axis of development.. The purpose of this research is the regional development policy of Makran, the current research has been done using the descriptive-analytical method and based on future research methods with a combination of documentary and survey methods. In this research, after studying the upstream documents, two-stage Delphi method was used to identify the key variables affecting the sustainable development of Makran region, and the analyzed data includes 36 variables in the form of 8 areas as primary variables affecting sustainable development. The findings show that the ideal institutional model for the development of Makran will be to go through sectoral approaches and move gradually in the direction of institutional capacity building. Non-institutional models based on the theory of neo-regionalism play high capacities for the institutional capacity building of Makran. As a result, in regional governance, Makran Development Organization should play the role of leadership and policy-making in the credit of the political support of the central government. Manuscript profile
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        68 - The future of Foolad Mobarakeh Cultural and Sports Club of Sepahan; Based on the scenario method in the horizon of 2034
        Amin Ferdosipour Mehdi Salimi Ahad Rezayan
        10.30495/kmsj.2023.1985099.1104
        Objective: Cultural and sports clubs are one of the most important cores of developing championship sports and attracting audiences and entertainment in the future. The current research aims to look into the future in Foolad Mobarakeh Sports Cultural Club of Sepahan, to More
        Objective: Cultural and sports clubs are one of the most important cores of developing championship sports and attracting audiences and entertainment in the future. The current research aims to look into the future in Foolad Mobarakeh Sports Cultural Club of Sepahan, to discover possible futures for the club and to formulate its scenarios for 2034.Method: Foresight has been done with the approach of scenario planning based on the method of intuitive logic. To design the scenarios, the method of analyzing drivers and uncertainties based on Schwartz's eight-stage model has been used. The participants of the current research included 20 internal and external stakeholders of Foolad Mobarakeh Sepahan cultural and sports club, who were selected based on the purposeful sampling method. Data was collected through interviews and open questionnaires. Results: Based on the findings, the analysis of the 18 main factors obtained finally led to the production of two strategic uncertainties including: 1. the economic performance of the club, 2. the professional performance of the team, which is the basis for the construction of two scenarios a) Sleep confused and b) thought magic. Conclusion: As a result, it is suggested that for the success of Foolad Sepahan Sports Cultural Club in the future, "revision of the club's economic plans and programs" and "reorganization of the team's management processes" should be included in the agenda of the club's planners and managers so that the club plays a greater role in to be compatible with the future and build a favorable future. Manuscript profile
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        69 - Evaluation and presentation of solutions to reduce heavy metals in groundwater of Garmsar plain
        Moslem Soltanian Hossein Hassanpour Darvishi Seyed Habib Musavi Jahromi Mohammad Nasri
        Iran is one of the water-scarce countries in the world. The management of available water resources is one of the most important issues in water engineering. Part of the water in the surface and underground is combined with heavy metals and their quality is reduced. Thi More
        Iran is one of the water-scarce countries in the world. The management of available water resources is one of the most important issues in water engineering. Part of the water in the surface and underground is combined with heavy metals and their quality is reduced. This article examines the quality of water resources in Garmsar plain. The required data was obtained in the field from wells and soil of the region and GMS software was used for modeling. In the following, a solution is presented to improve the existing situation and the result is compared with the current situation. The results showed that Scenario 2 had the greatest impact on the reduction of heavy metals and on the other hand Scenario 4 had the least impact on the values. If the solution is used, the amount of heavy metals in the water of Garmsar plain will be reduced. Manuscript profile
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        70 - Estimating damages caused by earthquake using RADIUS and GIS model (case study of Tabriz region 8)
        Seyed ahmad Mirdehghan Ashkezari Seyed Ali Almodaresi Mohamad Reza Rezaei Mohammad Reza Nojavan Mostafa khabazi
        10.30495/jrors.2023.1971648.1168
        Natural disasters are phenomena that have always exposed human life in all ages and centuries and had harmful effects. Today's cities in different parts of the world are always exposed to risks caused by natural disasters such as earthquakes due to many reasons such as More
        Natural disasters are phenomena that have always exposed human life in all ages and centuries and had harmful effects. Today's cities in different parts of the world are always exposed to risks caused by natural disasters such as earthquakes due to many reasons such as the type of location, inappropriate physical development, non-compliance with necessary standards and lack of proper management. Assessing the vulnerability of cities against these hazards from different aspects and as one of the factors that determine the level of risk, can lead to the reduction of physical, economic and social damages caused by the occurrence of such incidents. In this research, the 8th region of Tabriz municipality was chosen as the historical and cultural region due to its dilapidated texture, heavy traffic and high and vulnerable population density. The method of research and analysis of the collected information is carried out according to the methods based on the information base and using the Radius program, and three scenarios, according to the fault in the north of Tabriz (scenarios 5, 6 and 7 on the Richter scale) to estimate the damages caused by a possible earthquake in The study area was considered. The results indicate that the results of the damages and casualties caused by the earthquake based on the considered scenarios indicate that, in the 5 Richter scenario, 20-26% of the buildings will be destroyed, in the 6 Richter scenario, 35-45% of the buildings will be destroyed, and in the 7 Richter scenario, 55-60% Buildings will be destroyed. Manuscript profile
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        71 - Scenario planning and explanation of urban management development with an emphasis on earthquake vulnerability management with a future research approach using GIS, a case study of Mantasa Municipality 6, Tehran
        poya amiri mohammad ebrahim afifi Marziyeh Mogholi
        The research is applied in terms of purpose, explanatory in nature and combined method (qualitative-quantitative). The data collection method is library-documentary. The statistical population was formed by 124 experts and experts from the government agencies of the cit More
        The research is applied in terms of purpose, explanatory in nature and combined method (qualitative-quantitative). The data collection method is library-documentary. The statistical population was formed by 124 experts and experts from the government agencies of the city of Tehran. Probability and stratified sampling method. The tool for collecting information is the questionnaire of the type of closed questions. For the future research of Tehran city management and to investigate the desired drivers, the criteria influencing the development management of Tehran city have been ranked using the TOPSIS model based on the experts' score. By examining these criteria, possible, probable and desirable scenarios have been developed. The aim of the current research is scenario planning and explanation of the development of urban management with an emphasis on earthquake vulnerability management with a future research approach using GIS. The indicators used for medical centers and hospitals were population density, open spaces, distance from the fault, road network. In the fuzzy inference zoning maps of AND operator, 1453.13, 499.17, 154.9, 35.11 hectares are located in very low, low, medium, high and very high risk areas, respectively. In the OR zoning model, 7.02 hectares are in the very low risk category, 35.11 hectares are in the low risk category, 358.19 hectares are in the medium risk zone, 1755.85 hectares are in the high risk zone, and 2156.18 are in the very high risk zone. The results of the research show that Among the evaluated criteria, the emphasis on the decentralized and integrated management structure with a score of (0.967) has taken the first place. Based on the future research method in Tehran city development management, three scenarios were formulated. The first scenario: change in the structural criteria of Tehran city management (integrated approach in urban planning and management). The second scenario: change in the functional criteria of Tehran city management. The third scenario: Governance is digital democracy. In this zoning, the most vulnerable areas are located in the northern part of the city.Therefore, in the zoning map resulting from the AND operator, more relief and relief centers will be needed in times of earthquakes. In the OR zoning model, 7.02 hectares are in the very low risk category, 35.11 hectares in the low risk category, 358.19 hectares in the medium risk zone, 1755.85 hectares in the high risk zone, and 2156.18 hectares in the very high risk zone. Therefore, the largest area in this zoning model is in the very low class, and this logic considers many areas without risk due to the convergence between criteria, and only a very small part of the center of the study area has been identified as having a high risk. And finally, the zoning model of the GAMA operator, respectively, 185.23, 557.92, 595.88, 643.62, 158.76 hectares were in the very low, low, medium, high, very high risk classes, and the medium risk class covered most of the study area. In this zoning, the most vulnerable areas are located in the northern part of the city. Manuscript profile
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        72 - Possible Future Scenarios of Diplomatic Relations with Neighboring Countries in the Field of Water
        Mehdi shafaghati Amir houshang Mirkooshesh saeid kamyabi masoumeh zahiri
        Water is the most valuable factor of life, therefore, the lack of water resources plays an important role challenges between nations and governments. Competition for water resources will cause problems. Today, many countries are facing the problem of water shortage and More
        Water is the most valuable factor of life, therefore, the lack of water resources plays an important role challenges between nations and governments. Competition for water resources will cause problems. Today, many countries are facing the problem of water shortage and are on the verge of water stress. in addition to an interdisciplinary research, the connection of political science and hydro politic science in the issue of the disputes governing the border rivers of Iran should be addressed to the solutions of the disputes related to the northeast neighbors. In the intended research with the research method and the current research according to its purpose, it is developmental-duplicative. In this research, in line with the inductive-comparative strategy, two qualitative and quantitative methods have been used, and based on the determination of possible scenarios, the importance of diplomacy in the field of water, with two neighboring countries, will be explained. Manuscript profile
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        73 - Prediction of Digital Governance in the Direction of Urban Smartness with Sustainability Approach (Case Study: Tehran)
        Bahram Parvin Ali Shayan Alireza Poorebrahimi Reza Radfar
        10.22094/jcr.2023.1987987.1304
        Manuscript profile
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        74 - Forecasting the exchange rate using futures studies methods and examining the effect of currency fluctuations on the performance of companies: A case study of Iran Tobacco Company
        Alireza Fathinia Ali Badizadeh
        Exchange rates always have a high priority and attractiveness in society, especially among companies. Different methods are used to predict the exchange rate, among which structural methods as methods of fundamental analysis, a little precision in advance. They have an More
        Exchange rates always have a high priority and attractiveness in society, especially among companies. Different methods are used to predict the exchange rate, among which structural methods as methods of fundamental analysis, a little precision in advance. They have an accurate forecast of the exchange rate, but they are very useful as a long-term perspective and illuminate the movement of the exchange rate. Technical compensation can be used to compensate for the shortcomings of these methods. Using futures research techniques, in addition to covering the study gap of futures research techniques in forecasting exchange rates, errors due to quantitative methods have been minimized so that companies are prepared for the occurrence of various situations. In the final part of the article, the effect of currency fluctuations on the performance indicators of the tobacco company during the last three years is examined. The results of the study indicate that currency fluctuations have the first and greatest impact on the implementation of development projects and also sudden economic shocks are not immediately reflected in the performance of companies and due to the presence of shock absorbers such as inventory in Warehousing, borrowing purchases and long-term debt creation, over time, gradually affect and weaken the company's performance. Manuscript profile
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        75 - Scenario analysis of factors affecting the attraction and special use of generation z employees in Bushehr petrochemical industry
        Dariush Dehghan rasool aghadavood Mohammad reza Dalvi Esfahan
        10.22094/jdem.2023.705868
        The current research is a descriptive-analytical type of research and is practical in terms of its purpose. The statistical population of the research included 12 specialists and experts in the petrochemical industry, who were selected based on the homogeneous sampling More
        The current research is a descriptive-analytical type of research and is practical in terms of its purpose. The statistical population of the research included 12 specialists and experts in the petrochemical industry, who were selected based on the homogeneous sampling method as one of the qualitative sampling methods. . In this study, 22 indicators were confirmed through the method of identification theme analysis and the fuzzy Delphi method, and the indicators were finally examined using the method of structural-interpretive equations and scenario analysis. The results of the research identified 6 important levels in identifying effective factors in attracting and hiring generation Z employees. In the first level, 5 indicators (merit selection index, organizational selection system improvement index, organizational attractiveness index, highlighting goals and values index, index of creating an environment of accountability and acceptance of transformational managers) were determined and finally variables of needs assessment and public information, attractive Making a job for generation z, measuring the capacity and efficiency of a person when hiring, measuring people's computer skills,, applying for a job online and building a personal brand were identified as the most fundamental elements of the model. And 21 sub-indicators were identified, which are the scenarios of measuring the capacity and efficiency of a person when hiring, applying for a job online and building a personal brand, giving benefits according to the scientific and skill capabilities of the job, planning the design of attractive jobs based on the science and capabilities of the next generation. Manuscript profile
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        76 - A Scenario-Based Robust Compromise Programming Approach for Design of Bioethanol and Electricity Supply Chain in Iran
        Babak Rostami-Ranjbar Mohammad Saidi-Mehrabad
        10.22094/joie.2022.1953244.1941
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        77 - The international future order scenario in the years leading to 2030
        ali asghar naeimi amirhoshang mirkooshesh ali mohammadzadeh
        From the past, predicting the future and that the global system will be in accordance with its various variables, both the side and the other, and the political actors and the governing authorities in order to supply national interests and safeguard and protect their in More
        From the past, predicting the future and that the global system will be in accordance with its various variables, both the side and the other, and the political actors and the governing authorities in order to supply national interests and safeguard and protect their independence and territorial integrity, as well as a concern and issue. Therefore, actors of the international arena, which are the same political countries, compete with other actors in order to redress their citizens ' rights, and pursue unwritten conflicts. Therefore, due to the efforts of some effective activists, including China, Russia and the European Union to form the governing order of the international arena, or to change and transform it, have a writer with a multi-scenario design, the future of international order in the years leading to 2030 using scenario-oriented approach in the theoretical framework of the idea of the cause of mining. Therefore, it can be predicted that, in addition to the growing economic, military, political and diplomatic growth of China, alongside the Russian offensive approach and the increasing nationalism of the European Union, at the end of the Third Decade of the twenty-one ad we will not only see the stresses and changes in international order, but also the ruling system of its current form and the Monopolator towards a single - Multipolar system with us and a few Influential focus including China, Russia and the European Union will redirect. Manuscript profile
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        78 - Foresight of Entrepreneurial University using The integrated method of processing scenarios and cross-impact analysis 1404
        Noor Mohammad Yaghoubi masoud dehghani Malihe Omidvar
        Due to the rapid changes and uncertainty resulting from the necessity of strategic planning and future studies to deal with possible changes in the future will be more and more evident. The theoretical framework of this research, normative paradigm and planning approach More
        Due to the rapid changes and uncertainty resulting from the necessity of strategic planning and future studies to deal with possible changes in the future will be more and more evident. The theoretical framework of this research, normative paradigm and planning approach is faithful to the upstream documents. The present study is the time horizon of the year 1404. Preliminary data research using semi-open interviews and academic experts in the field of entrepreneurship Delphi collection and analysis have been using the software MicMac. More used. The ideal scenario, 59 possible and probable future entrepreneurial university was defined by a matrix of 59 × 59 using the software scenario wizard, 5 scenarios the probability is very high, 19 scenario with the likelihood of average to high 291 scenarios with low probability and weak, were very strong in the article 5 scenarios and 19 moderate to high probability scenario is analyzed. Manuscript profile
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        79 - Modeling and Predicting Climatic Elements of Temperature and Precipitation (Case Study: Ahar Synoptic Station)
        shahram lotfi gharanchai Alireza shakiba amene dashtbozorghi Fatima rabbani Tayyaba akbari Azirani
        Today, climate change is considered a serious challenge to human societies and the environment and has caused anomalies in the Earth's climate system. According to scientists, an increase in the average global temperature is inevitable. In this study, the climatic eleme More
        Today, climate change is considered a serious challenge to human societies and the environment and has caused anomalies in the Earth's climate system. According to scientists, an increase in the average global temperature is inevitable. In this study, the climatic elements of temperature and precipitation of Ahar synoptic station for the near future (2026-2045), middle future (2046-2065) and distant future (2066-2085) using the outputs of the CanESM2 climate change model. Based on RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with SDSM exponential microscale model and also the annual trend of these changes was investigated using Mann-Kendall test. Based on the output of the model, it was determined that in the near future, precipitation will occur in February and November, and in the next two periods, mid and distant, in October, the greatest decrease will occur, and for April, May and August, the precipitation will increase. On average, the minimum temperature will increase to 0.38 degrees Celsius, the average temperature to 0.52 degrees Celsius and the maximum temperature to 0.82 degrees Celsius. Based on the results of Mann-Kendall test, the annual trend of precipitation in the future will be decreasing, the average temperature in the three scenarios will have an increasing and significant trend and the temperature elements (minimum, medium and maximum temperature) in RCP8.5 will be increasing and significant. Manuscript profile
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        80 - Presenting a model for increasing the Environmental Resilience of Kanarak city against Floods Caused by Tropical Storms with an emphasis on Futures Studies
        Ebrahim Forozan Mehr azadeh arbabi sabzevari Fatemeh Adibi Saadinejad
        Today, the Resilience of cities against natural Hazards has become one of the important topics in Urban Management. On the other hand, paying attention to this issue from the point of view of future research has made it easier to plan to improve the future situation, . More
        Today, the Resilience of cities against natural Hazards has become one of the important topics in Urban Management. On the other hand, paying attention to this issue from the point of view of future research has made it easier to plan to improve the future situation, . The statistical population of this research included relevant experts and elites, who according to the objectives of the research and to achieve the desired model with a future research approach through interviews with elites and experts and using a non-random purposeful sampling method (in a predetermined manner) done), and finally the number of 15 people was obtained. In order to identify the key drivers, structural analysis method (interaction effects) in the form of MICMAC software was also used for scenario writing using Scenario Wizard software. The findings of the research showed that the drivers of "Surface Water Collection Channel" will have the most influence through their alternative futures (probable state) on other drivers in determining the futures, and the drivers of "Changing the Structure of Organizations" Based on the Relationship of Alternative futures, it has received the most influence from other alternative futures. Also, the drivers of Flood Zoning Map, "Early Warning System of Natural Hazards and (GIS) and It has been Alternative futures of that part Intermittent propellants. Manuscript profile
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        81 - Investigation of Climate Change on the Southern Coastal of the Caspian Sea Using SDSM, LARS-WG and Artificial Neural Network
        Elham Ghasemifar Bohloul Alijani Mohammad Salighe
        Introduction   Average  surface  temperatures  of the Northern Hemisphere  have risen in response to climate change by 0.76°C over the past 150 years (IPCC, 2007) .These temperature  increases  have been  accompanied  by More
        Introduction   Average  surface  temperatures  of the Northern Hemisphere  have risen in response to climate change by 0.76°C over the past 150 years (IPCC, 2007) .These temperature  increases  have been  accompanied  by a reduction in snow  and  ice cover, retreat of sea ice and mountain glaciers, a longer growing season and earlier arrival of spring,  increased  frequency of extreme rainfall events, and more than 25,000  other changes in physical and biological indicators of global warming (Rosenzweig et al., 2008). Numerical models have used in such research after the late of year 1970s. The downscaling software such as SDSM,LARS_WG and ANN (Artificial Neural Network) became very common in the recent decades(e.g. Khan, et al., 2006).The results have showed that  the SDSM is the most capable of reproducing various statistical characteristics of observed data in its downscaled  results  with 95%  confidence  level, the  ANN  is the least capable in this respect, and the LARS-WG  is in between SDSM and ANN. According to Lopes et al (2008) in Assessment of climate change in Lisbon, the SDSM tool was able to better represent the minimum and maximum temperature whereas LARS-WG simulations is slightly better for  precipitation.   Material and methods This research  has used downscaled methods for  the minimum  and maximum temperatures of  five stations  including Anzali,  Rasht, Babolsar, Ramsar and Gorgan in the southern coastal of the Caspian sea by three models  namely LARS-WG, SDSM and ANN during 1961-90 and 2010-2039 period under three scenarios of A1 , A2 , And  B2 . For this purpose, first the observed data of 1961-90 period were obtained from Meteorological Organization of Iran. Since GCMs are restricted in their usefulness for local impact studies with their coarse spatial resolution (typically 50,000 km2) and inability to resolve important sub–grid scale features such as clouds and topography, the three downscaling models namely SDSM, LARS_WG and ANN  were used to downscaling these coarse data. Two GCM data were obtained from the website: http://www.cics.uvic.ca/scenarios/index.cgi?Scenarios. Root Mean square error (RMSE), Mean absolute error (MAE) and Coefficient of determination ( ) were used to assessing the capability of the models.   Result and discussions SDSM model results showed very small error ( 0.01 to 0.06°C) between observed and generate data using NCEP predictors-based data with  a little more discrepancy using HADCM3 predictors-based data . The model output showed minimum and maximum temperature will rise during the future period with the exception of the months including April ,May and November. This warming trend was same for ANN with error range of   0.2 to 0.8°C. LARS-WG simulation showed temperature will rise for all months of the year with the error range of  0.1 to 0.2°C.  The comparison betweem three models showed that the SDSM tool was able to better represent the minimum and maximum temperature.   Conclusion                   According to this study the temperature increased during the target period. Temperature will increase during future period too.The SDSM  and ANN model showed decrease in the temperature of the months including April, May and November. But the LARS_WG showed increase in the temperature in all month and all stations. The comparison of the models showed that the SDSM model has recorded the lowest error in the predicting of future temperatures. Manuscript profile
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        82 - Performance Evaluation of BNU-ESM and MIROC-ESM models in Global Warming with a view to Future Climatic Parameters and Droughts (Case study: Gorganrood Catchment, Golestan Province)
        دنیائی Donyaii
        In the present study, the effect of climate change on climatic parameters such as temperature, precipitation and future droughts in Gorganrood catchment were evaluated using the output of two general circulation models called MIROC-ESM ﻭ BNU-ESM under three scenarios (i More
        In the present study, the effect of climate change on climatic parameters such as temperature, precipitation and future droughts in Gorganrood catchment were evaluated using the output of two general circulation models called MIROC-ESM ﻭ BNU-ESM under three scenarios (i.e.,  RCP 2.6, RCP4.5 ﻭ RCP8. 5) for the two periods as the near future (2025-2060) and the far future (2061-2095). The outputs of MIROC-ESM and BNU-ESM model were downscaled by SDSM model and Change Factor method, respectively. In order to evaluate the performance of the two methods, the statistical indices such as R, RMSE and NSE were applied. And to assess droughts, the standard precipitation index (SPI) was used annually during the baseline (1961-2020) as well as the future periods. The results showed that the SDSM model has a higher performance in predicting both temperature and precipitation parameters than the Change Factor method. The results of temperature and precipitation changes in both near and far future periods determined the effect of Global Warming on the future climate of Gorganrood catchment, so that the average annual temperature increases in all scenarios in both models, while reduction in the average annual rainfall. Moreover, according to the results of both MIROC-ESM ﻭ BNU-ESM models, the annual SPI values will decrease in both near and far future periods under all three scenarios compared to the baseline period while the increases in meteorological drought. The results of general circulation models showed that the MIROC-ESM model estimates the lowest amount of rainfall, the highest values of temperature and the highest number of years with severe drought compared to the BNU-ESM model. Manuscript profile
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        83 - The Foresight of Urban Development with Emphasis on Infrastructure Development (A Case study of Ardabil)
        Simin Abafat masoumeh hafezrezazadeh maryam karimiyanbostani
        In the present study, the researchers have considered 30 major factors which were identified as indicators in the city's development in Ardabil. After determining the role, relationship and weight of the influential factors in the urban development, the indicators were More
        In the present study, the researchers have considered 30 major factors which were identified as indicators in the city's development in Ardabil. After determining the role, relationship and weight of the influential factors in the urban development, the indicators were fed into the Mike Mac software. Finally, after scoring for compiling the scenarios, they were processed using the Wizard scenario software. Finally, 38 cases were obtained for 30 key factors affecting the future of Ardabil urban development. Combining these possible scenarios, 7176 combined scenarios were extracted. These scenarios included 22 high-compatibility, 7012 low-compatibility, and 142 incompatible scenarios. The results of the study showed that two scenarios were more likely to occur in the future development of Ardabil of which one was favorable and under ideal conditions (progressive scenario) while the other one was relatively favorable and intermediate.     Manuscript profile
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        84 - Evaluation of Urban Regeneration Scenarios in old Urban Fabrics (A Case of the Eighth District of Tabriz)
        seyamak safori basher beygbabaee parviz noorozy
        Based on the findings of this study, out of the 27 identified factors that contribute to fabric regeneration in Tabriz's Eighth District, nine factors were selected as critical drivers for screening. Among the scenarios, strong scenarios were selected as desirable ones. More
        Based on the findings of this study, out of the 27 identified factors that contribute to fabric regeneration in Tabriz's Eighth District, nine factors were selected as critical drivers for screening. Among the scenarios, strong scenarios were selected as desirable ones. Among the strong scenarios, the first, second, third, and fourth ones were identified as the most favorable scenarios due to the high degree of utility. The results show that improvement of indices: managerial factors, tourism development, restoration of monuments and traffic management are necessary for the recreation of Tabriz's Eighth District because these indices are on the verge of becoming a crisis and thus the continuation of this process impedes favorable regeneration in the Tabriz’s Eighth District.   Manuscript profile
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        85 - Targeting the Price of Energy Carriers and Consumption Behavior of Urban Households in Iran
        S.M. Ahmadi J. Pajooyan E. Gholami
        The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the composition of consuming expenditures of urban households in Iran under various scenarios of the price of energy carriers. For this purpose, initially, goods and services consumed by urban households are divided into More
        The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the composition of consuming expenditures of urban households in Iran under various scenarios of the price of energy carriers. For this purpose, initially, goods and services consumed by urban households are divided into 7 groups and the share of total household expenditures is estimated by applying an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) and the data of the years 2001-2010 for 10 cost deciles. Then, the average of the share of each of these groups is simulated for the years 2011 -2013 under two scenarios of 20 and 85 percentage of the price. The results indicate that using either of these two scenarios does not change the consumption composition of urban households and consumers preferences before relating the price to the needs and priorities. So, if the government plans to impose steep price scenarios, it should follow supporting supplements policies to compensate the decline of consumer welfare. Manuscript profile
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        86 - Forsight of Golestan province tourism industry: scenario and Suggested solutions
        zahra aldaghi abdolhamid ebrahimi samereh shojaee hossein didehkhani
        The purpose of this research is to Forsight of tourism industry of Golestan province with a scenario approach. This research is in terms of its purpose, in terms of the method, a combination of documentary and scrolling methods and in terms of nature, based on new metho More
        The purpose of this research is to Forsight of tourism industry of Golestan province with a scenario approach. This research is in terms of its purpose, in terms of the method, a combination of documentary and scrolling methods and in terms of nature, based on new methods of futuristic, analytical, and explorative science. The statistical population of this research includes all theoretical and experimental experts. The non-probabilistic sampling method is using two methods for judging and snowball sampling. The data gathering tool was a questionnaire and an interview with experts. The results of the first stage led to the identification of five factors And 24 variables related to the future of the tourism industry in Golestan province. And in the results of the second stage of the research (the interaction matrix) based on the output of the Mick Mac application were identified 8 effective factors. The eight factors were used in uncertainty questionnaire Based on the twofold "uncertainty" and "importance" Four scenarios were identified and selected from the combination of two axes: "Tourism entrepreneurship" and "Tourism acceptance culture". Finally, there are suggested solutions for each scenario. Manuscript profile
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        87 - Identifying and Explaining the Cultural Tourism Scenarios in the Post-Corona Era (A Case Study of Geographical Area in Ardabil Province)
        Javad Madani
        Cultural tourism is one of the types of tourism that is affected by the serious damage of the Corona epidemic. Most countries in the post-Corona era are trying to promote cultural tourism, which has required them to adopt new approaches and methods. The main purpose of More
        Cultural tourism is one of the types of tourism that is affected by the serious damage of the Corona epidemic. Most countries in the post-Corona era are trying to promote cultural tourism, which has required them to adopt new approaches and methods. The main purpose of this study is to identify and explain the scenarios of cultural tourism in the post-Corona era, which is focused on Ardabil province. The research method is a mix of two methods, ‘focus group’ and ‘scenario planning’, using a sequential exploratory approach. The main tool used in the qualitative phase is a semi-structured interview in the form of an online focus group and the quantitative phase is a questionnaire. The participants of the present study were 8 experts and academic and executive experts of the country in the field of cultural tourism who participated in the focus group. According to the research findings, in the qualitative phase, 13 main codes were extracted in the form of three basic concepts, which were categorized using the three-pronged model. According to the discussion and the results, 4 scenarios were created, each of which can help to create the necessary flexibility in the field of cultural tourism and make this type of tourism with synergy and innovation in Ardabil province. Manuscript profile
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        88 - Coping Uncertainty in the Supplier Selection Problem Using a Scenario-Based Approach and Distance Measure on Type-2 Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets
        Ali Sorourkhah
        10.30495/fomj.2022.1953705.1066
        Manuscript profile
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        89 - Futures Studies of Gas Industry in Iran based on Fuzzy MCDM Methods and Critical Uncertainty Approach
        Mohammad Reza Fathi Abolfazl Khosravi Somayeh Razi Moheb Saraj Amirhossein Behrooz
        10.30495/fomj.2023.1990204.1101
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        90 - Scenarios for the future of relations of Iran and Saudi Arabia
        roghayeh javidi Gholamreza Behroozi Lak
        Abstract: Interactions and relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia as two regional powers are affecting the regional development and themselves. These interactions are important and one can predict the future trend of these foreign policy directions and formulate desira More
        Abstract: Interactions and relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia as two regional powers are affecting the regional development and themselves. These interactions are important and one can predict the future trend of these foreign policy directions and formulate desirable and timely policies and make appropriate decisions. The present paper wants to use a combination of methodology of scenario writing of James Dytor and second step analysis to predict the trend, events and future scenario of Iran and Saudi Arabia relations in order to have a better planning and policy making. The main question raised by the paper is "what are the future scenario of coming decade of Iran and Saudi Arabia relations?" By understanding the events and the driving force which strengthen the relations and obstacles which impedes the relations one comes to the conclusion that the scenario of straining relations is more probable and the scenario of cooperation is having list possibility. Besides that the scenario of breaking our war or conflict is also probable depending on factors which strengthen the driving force. Therefore, taking into consideration the above scenarios it is necessary that the political leaders in their strategic planning adopt the pattern of cooperation and constructive interaction. They should strengthen the cultural and ideological drivers and encourage the regional countries to further cooperation scenario. Manuscript profile
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        91 - Identifying scenarios affecting the future of public diplomacy under the influence of cyberspace metropolitans with a structural analysis
        Davood Kiani keyhan barzegar mohammad mahdi afshar
        10.30495/pir.2020.680006
        Given the position and effectiveness of cyberspace metropolises in all areas of collective and even individual life and its effective role in the superiority of countries in defending the interests of their nation, this research seeks To examine and analyze the role of More
        Given the position and effectiveness of cyberspace metropolises in all areas of collective and even individual life and its effective role in the superiority of countries in defending the interests of their nation, this research seeks To examine and analyze the role of this important and sensitive factor in the future of public diplomacy A list of cyberspace metropolises, affecting the future of public diplomacy, was designed using the futuristic methods of identifying, matrix of interaction effects..By analyzing the data obtained with the software, it was possible to identify strategic trends and effective actors, including the promotion of artificial intelligence, increasing connections, new business models, external threats, globalization, protection of intellectual capital, global trade, political stability, discourse change. The Library of Power, Strategic Communication, Increasing Virtual Networks, Economic Communication, Cultural and Social CommunicationWith the scenario writing technique and using the Wizard scenario software, the effects of each of the situations occurring or not occurring were identified.The results of this study indicate that seven factors are the main and effective actors in the future of public diplomacy, which were implemented in two categories of desirable scenarios, including three scenarios and undesirable, including one scenario. Manuscript profile
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        92 - Alternative Scenarios of Iran vs. Saudi Arabia’s Regional Coalition-Building among Arab Countries: (2011-2019)
        davoud ahmadzadeh Kayhan Barzegar Hamid hmadi Asadollah Athari Marian
        10.30495/pir.2019.684612
        AbstractCurrent developments in the Middle East indicate a high probability of tension in the region which provided the basis for regional coalitions. In a way that, Saudi Arabia, as one of the major players in the Middle East region and the main competitor of the Islam More
        AbstractCurrent developments in the Middle East indicate a high probability of tension in the region which provided the basis for regional coalitions. In a way that, Saudi Arabia, as one of the major players in the Middle East region and the main competitor of the Islamic Republic of Iran, has sought to increase its regional influence in the major conquest centers. In this regard, the main question of the research is that, what alternative scenarios does Iran face in dealing with Saudi regional coalitions in the years after 2011? Considering Saudi Arabia's regional alliance in the Middle East against Iran, Alternative Scenarios of the Islamic Republic of Iran are at the Micro Level (Yemen Crisis) Consolidation of Ansarollah's Position in the country’s Political System, at the regional level, creating gaps in regional coalitions and at the trans-regional level, the deterioration and reinforcement of Iranian cultural diplomacy. This study is based on future research methodologies and based on the deductive approach and the use of Peter Schwartz's Global Business Network Improvement Model. Keywords: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Scenario Building, Coalition Building, Arab Countries. Manuscript profile
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        93 - Scenarios of regional order with the withdrawal of American troops from the Middle East (from the perspective of the TAIDA model)
        Ebrahim Meraji Hossein Daheshiar Mohammadreza Dehshiri
        10.30495/pir.2021.686819
        Proper planning based on future trends to advance national security goals and national interests is one of the most important tasks of strategists in each country.Considering the importance of scenario planning in strategic studies, present paper attempts to use the res More
        Proper planning based on future trends to advance national security goals and national interests is one of the most important tasks of strategists in each country.Considering the importance of scenario planning in strategic studies, present paper attempts to use the research methodology of the future research and using the TAIDA model, which focuses on the five approaches of " Tracking, Analyzing, Deciding, and Action", The author seeks to examine possible scenarios for regional order in the event of the withdrawal of US troops from the region. With this statement, the main question of the present study is: What will be the possible scenarios regarding the regional order of the withdrawal of American troops from the region?Scenarios include: - The vacuum of power and the development of the activities of non-governmental forces such as ISIS and the resulting disorder.- The possibility that some countries in the region will prevail and its order will be formed based on their interests.- Formation of regional convergence for security by the countries of the region.Finally, the author will try to express the desired scenario from the point of view of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Manuscript profile
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        94 - Possible scenarios about Russia's use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war
        MOHAMMADHAMED KIANI Mohammad Reza Aghareb Parast Bashir Esmaeili Gonharani
        10.30495/pir.2024.1998899.3686
        Russia's military conflict in Ukraine, which began in February 2022 has global dimensions and various effects on the politics, economy and security of the international system. In the meantime, the evaluation of possible scenarios has a special place from the perspectiv More
        Russia's military conflict in Ukraine, which began in February 2022 has global dimensions and various effects on the politics, economy and security of the international system. In the meantime, the evaluation of possible scenarios has a special place from the perspective of future studies.The main question of this article:What scenarios can be imagined if Russia uses nuclear weapons? The hypothesis that is raised following the mentioned question is that the use of nuclear weapons by Russia will have major geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic effects for global security in the short and long term. The present article tries to present some possible scenarios in relation to the future of this war and its effects on the international system in the framework of scenario planning and using the descriptive-analytical method with emphasizing on component of nuclear weapons.For this purpose, offensive realism has been chosen as theoretical framework to better explain the behavior of the Russian government in Ukrainian war.The findings of the research show that Russia's use of nuclear weapons can, on the one hand, lead to a mutual reaction by the United States and NATO, and on the other hand, instead of helping to disarm nuclear weapons, lead to its spread Manuscript profile
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        95 - Investigation of Rainfall and Air Temperature Changes Under Different Scenarios of Climate Change (Case study: Shahrekord)
        Zohre Izadi Ali Heidar Nasrollahi Bizhan Haghighati Borujeni
        In this research outputs of the general circulation model HadCM3 under the three climatic change scenarios A1, B1 and A1B are downscaled using LARS-WG model in Shahrekord synoptic weather station and the results were evaluated for the base period (1971-1995) and the fut More
        In this research outputs of the general circulation model HadCM3 under the three climatic change scenarios A1, B1 and A1B are downscaled using LARS-WG model in Shahrekord synoptic weather station and the results were evaluated for the base period (1971-1995) and the future periods 2011-2030 and 2046-2065 for weather parameters of temperature and precipitation. The results of prediction of the model in future periods indicate that the maximum and minimum temperatures increase for all months and scenarios in the study area compared to the base period. Accordingly, the maximum increase in maximum and minimum monthly temperatures was 3.62 and 3.55 °C, respectively, which was observed under the A1B scenario during 2046-2065. Although, the results of the model for the precipitation were very fluctuating and no specific order was observed. However, rainfall decreased in the vegetative seasons of the plants, especially in spring and April and May. Manuscript profile
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        96 - Evaluation of Key Factors Affecting the Creative City with a Scenario-Based Approach: (Case Study: Birjand City)
        Massoumeh Hafiz Rezazadeh Morteza Sadegh bakhtiari Zahra sarabandi Sajad poudineh
        10.30495/uf.2021.1932954.1003
        The concept of the creative city has become a common paradigm and a new model of urban planning and policy since the mid-1990s, first in Britain and then in the United States. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the key factors affecting the creative city in Birjan More
        The concept of the creative city has become a common paradigm and a new model of urban planning and policy since the mid-1990s, first in Britain and then in the United States. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the key factors affecting the creative city in Birjand with a scenario-based approach in the horizon of 1430. This research is applied based on its purpose; the research method is descriptive-analytical and in terms of the nature, it is analytical-exploratory due to its futurology approach. Data and information required for the research have been collected by documentary and survey methods (questionnaire). The statistical population of the research includes 20 experts, specialists and elites. MicMac and Scenario Wizard software have been used to analyze the indicators and criteria. The results of the analysis of the findings show that 16 key factors affect the future of the creative city of Birjand. Five scenarios, with different combinations of three  optimal، static and critical situations, are also likely to occur in the creative city of Birjand، of which 26.25% are critical، 46.25% are static and 27.5% are optimal. Considering this situation, it seems that the optimal and static situations have occupied a major part of the scenario page, and the critical and static situations are in the next priorities, respectively. In the most optimistic case, this (fourth) scenario will have an almost suitable situation out of 5 scenarios affecting the city of the creator, which alone has 6 favorable situations, and the other 4 scenarios are less desirable than this (fourth) scenario. Manuscript profile
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        97 - Strategies for Realizing Smart Tourism in Mashhad City With a Scenario Writing Approach
        Mahsa Ghafourian
        10.30495/uf.2023.1973666.1063
        Mashhad, as one of the most important tourist destinations in the country, needs access to affordable accommodation centers, suitable parking places, information about weather conditions, shopping centers and souvenirs, and visiting tourist attractions.  In this re More
        Mashhad, as one of the most important tourist destinations in the country, needs access to affordable accommodation centers, suitable parking places, information about weather conditions, shopping centers and souvenirs, and visiting tourist attractions.  In this regard, the aim of the research is to identify possible scenarios and strategies for the realization of smart tourism in Mashhad until the horizon of 1410.  In the way of conducting the research, the primary variables have been discussed among ten experts through targeted non-random sampling using the Delphi method.  In this way, effective factors and variables have been collected.  Then, coding and definition of the primary variables have been done in Mic Mac software, and the cross effects matrix table has been obtained and given to 5 elite people for scoring in the range of 0 to 3.  In the following, after analyzing the amount of direct influence, variables with high influence have been obtained, and according to expert opinions, among the variables with high uncertainty, the main drivers have been selected.  Then, based on the snowball interviews with five experts, five descriptors and fifteen different situations, it was entered into the Wizad scenario software, and the raw interaction matrix was provided to the elites for scoring in the range of -3 to +3.  Is.  According to the comments, the standardized matrix and compatible scenarios have been extracted from the scenario wizard.  Next, two critical drivers from scenarios compatible with high uncertainty were paired together and formed the logic of the scenario, and in line with the interviews conducted with 5 experts, the scenarios were described and interpreted in three situations: favorable scenario, continuation of the process, and disaster.  has taken.  Finally, according to the review of the current situation, strategies are presented with the SWOT model. Manuscript profile
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        98 - Evaluation and Creation of Urban Spatial Development Scenario in the Framework of Smart Growth Pattern(Case Study: the City of Rasht)
        sadegh kazemkhah Jalal Azimi Amoli mostafa ghadami gholam reza janbaz ghobadi
        Smart growth is a comprehensive strategy covering various aspects of urban development, and scenario planning attempts to focus on alternative futures using quantitative and qualitative categories. In this regard, the first and most critical step is to determine the key More
        Smart growth is a comprehensive strategy covering various aspects of urban development, and scenario planning attempts to focus on alternative futures using quantitative and qualitative categories. In this regard, the first and most critical step is to determine the key drivers, based on which the changes can be made to attain the goals. The present study is aimed at identifying the key effective factors for the spatial development of Rasht in the framework of smart urban growth pattern. The research method has a descriptive-analytical nature. The required data and information were gathered using both library and survey research methods, as well as the Delphi method. The interaction effects analysis of variables and MICMAC software were used to analyze the data. The results demonstrated that 55 factors are effective in the future development trend of Rasht based on smart growth, which are classified as three dimensions of use, traffic, and density. More than 62% of the factors affected each other. The dispersion plane of factors effective in the future of spatial development in Rasht based on smart growth indicated instability in the system. The results of matrix analyses and evaluation of effectiveness and susceptibility plan of the factors using direct and indirect methods determined 14 factors with the most substantial roles in the future spatial development of Rasht in the framework of smart growth pattern. Manuscript profile
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        99 - Identification and analysis the Key Factors Affecting Urban Creativity With the scenario writing approach (Case study: Rasht metropolis)
        Masomeh Mirqaravi Rasoul samadzadeh mohammad taqi masoumi
        The expansion of different problems in cities has clarified the necessity for comprehensive attention to useful strategies to optimize the life of residents in cities. In line with these new developments, new concepts and terms like creative city entered the area of urb More
        The expansion of different problems in cities has clarified the necessity for comprehensive attention to useful strategies to optimize the life of residents in cities. In line with these new developments, new concepts and terms like creative city entered the area of urban management and planning and was used by urban scholars and planners for describing the new roles and functions of cities.Cross impact analysis is a method for identifying the key factors. Micmac software was used for this analysis.In this regard, the results of studies indicated that seven factors (Modern technologies, Tourism quality, Access to internet technologies, Educational programs and activities, Variety of job opportunities, Handicrafts and local exhibitions and Number of entrepreneurs) can be identified as the key factors in creating the creative city of Rasht. Then, a 21 * 21 cross matrix was designed for seven key factors based on the possible states of Rasht development with a creative approach to prepare the scenario portfolio and it was then provided to experts along with a questionnaire and a guide on how to respond. The data collected at this stage were entered into scenario wizard software for analysis. Based on the combination of 21 probable states, 2187 hybrid scenarios were extracted including all probable states and the progress of Rasht creativity development in the future. The scenarios provided by the Scenario Wizard software included:- Four scenarios with high compatibility- 1542 scenarios with low compatibility - and 641 scenarios without compatibility Manuscript profile
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        100 - ارزیابی اثرات تغییرات اقلیمی بر منابع آب زیرزمینی استان خراسان جنوبی با استفاده از رویکرد سیستم دینامیک
        مصطفی تیموری سیدمهدی میردامادی Seyed Jamal Farajollah Hosseini
            هدف تحقیق حاضر بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم و خشکسالی بر منابع آب زیرزمینی استان خراسان جنوبی می باشد، در این راستا این مسئله با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی سیستم طی مراحل مدل سازی پویایی سیستم شامل  بیان مسئله، شرح سیستم، توسعه مدل، تست مدل و استفاده از More
            هدف تحقیق حاضر بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم و خشکسالی بر منابع آب زیرزمینی استان خراسان جنوبی می باشد، در این راستا این مسئله با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی سیستم طی مراحل مدل سازی پویایی سیستم شامل  بیان مسئله، شرح سیستم، توسعه مدل، تست مدل و استفاده از مدل برای تجزیه و تحلیل سیاست ها دنبال شد و تاثیر اعمال سناریوهای مختلف برون‌زا شامل سناریوهای خشکسالی، مدیریت عرضه آب و رشد جمعیت ارزیابی گردید و رفتار متغیرهای حجم منابع آب و حجم سرانه آب تجدید پذیر استان طی سال های 1392 تا 1420 از طریق کاربرد نرم افزار Vensim شبیه سازی شد. اطلاعات مورد نیاز با مراجعه به سازمان های زیربط مانند سازمان آب منطقه ای خراسان جنوبی، سازمان جهاد کشاورزی خراسان جنوبی و مرکز آمار ایران جمع آوری گردید و اطلاعات ورودی مدل در قالب فایل اکسل به مدل فراخوانی شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که سناریوی کنترل بهره برداری از منابع آبی، اثر مثبت چشمگیری بر موجودی آبخوان های استان خراسان جنوبی داشته به طوری که موجودی آبخوان های استان در سناریوی اعمال کنترل بهره برداری از منابع آب، نسبت به سناریوی عدم کنترل در خشکسالی های مختلف، در تمامی سال های مورد بررسی، تفاوتی فاحش داشته است، همچنین نتایج بررسی آب تجدید پذیر استان نشان می دهد که خشکسالی ها تاثیر منفی بر حجم آب تجدید پذیر استان داشته و وجود خشکسالی ها به همراه افزایش نرخ جمعیت، سرانه آب تجدید پذیر استان را کاهش داده است. Manuscript profile
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        101 - Designing a model of Human Resource Competency with a Strategic Foresight approach in the Customs of the Islamic Republic of Iran
        Bagher Babanejad Mohsen Taheri Demneh samereh shojaei Mohammad bager Gorji
        Today, the importance of the role of human capital as a vital and privileged factor for the survival and success of organizations has been increasingly considered.Organizations should be familiar with the techniques of this action in order to identify and attract capabl More
        Today, the importance of the role of human capital as a vital and privileged factor for the survival and success of organizations has been increasingly considered.Organizations should be familiar with the techniques of this action in order to identify and attract capable HR.Competency identification is the common language for describing the needs of each job, and the competency model is an appropriate tool for identifying competencies.The purpose of this study is to present a model of HR competencies for customs organization in Futuristic approach. Identifying the factors Effective the Customs by studying processes by environmental scanning method (PESTEL technique) and identification of drivers is done by analyzing the data in Micmac software. Then, the future Customs scenarios was adjusted (CBI) and analyzed by data in Wizard scenario.To identify indicators of HR competency, while using the scenarios of Customs, the interview method was used and a questionnaire was used to assess the model. Data were analyzed using structural equation modeling and statistical tests in SPSS and PLS software. Identifying environmental factors affecting the organization, identifying drivers, uncertainties, and Customs future scenarios can improve long-term forecasting. Results show; Value, knowledge and skills have been identified as effective dimensions of the competency model and core values,professional, operational and managerial competencies have been identified as model areas (levels). Develop competency model with a futuristic approach as a practical solution can help customs managers define the skills and knowledge needed for jobs, evaluate and improve employee performance, align the talent management process with organizational strategy. Manuscript profile
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        102 - Robust optimization of a mathematical model to design a dynamic cell formation problem considering labor utilization
        Moghadaseh Vafaeinezhad Reza Kia Parisa Shahnazari-Shahrezaei
        Manuscript profile
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        103 - Developing a fuzzy inference system to devise proper business strategies: a study on carpet industry
        Nasrin Hemayatkar Kaveh Khalili-Damghani Hosein Didehkhani Roohalla Samiee
        Manuscript profile
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        104 - A multi-product, multi-period model to select supplier for deteriorating products while considering uncertainty as well as backorder
        Mohsen Lashgari Seyed Jafar Sadjadi Misugh Sahihi
        Manuscript profile
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        105 - Seismic Assessment And Strengthening Of An Existing Steel Bridge In Portugal
        Catarina Fernandes Humberto Varum
        Manuscript profile
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        106 - The Impact of New Approaches in Qur'an Interpretation on Political Islam Thought
        Mohammad Jafar Ariannejad Ali Asghar Davoudi Saeed Gazerani
        Manuscript profile
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        107 - Prediction of aquifer reaction to different hydrological and management scenarios using visual MODFLOW model-Case study of Qazvin plain
        N Faghihi F Kave H Babazadeh
        Manuscript profile
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        108 - Implikimet e sigurisë të pavarësisë së rajonit të Kurdistanit të Irakut në zonat kufitare perëndimore të vendit
        hannaneh darashti alireza najafi
        The national security of any country is a function of the set of internal developments and movements of the security environment of that country. The issue of the Kurds and the events related to them is one of the most important political issues in the Middle East. The More
        The national security of any country is a function of the set of internal developments and movements of the security environment of that country. The issue of the Kurds and the events related to them is one of the most important political issues in the Middle East. The main problem of the researcher in this research is that what are the most effective scenarios of the security consequences of the Iraqi Kurdistan region on the western border regions of the country for a period of 5 years. Accordingly, the main goal of this research is to design the scenarios of the security consequences of the Iraqi Kurdistan region on the western border regions. It is the country. . The result of the evaluation of the eight designed scenarios shows that Kurdistan, on the part of the world powers, raises the tension between the countries with Kurdish minority and the integration between the Kurdish minority in the neighboring countries, the best situation for declaring and implementing the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan and for the security of the west of the country is dangerous and the scenario that is opposite to this scenario It is possible (non-recognition by world powers, alignment of countries with Kurdish minority and differences among Kurds in the region) is the best scenario that indicates the lack of independence of Kurds. Manuscript profile
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        109 - The Crisis in Yemen and the Regional Security Strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran
        Farzad Rostami Kamran Lotfi Saeid Pirmohamadi
        Often, in studies related to international relations, the security of activists, especially in the regional arena, is considered as one of the most important principles in the foreign policy of countries. Especially since the political-security issues after the Arab Spr More
        Often, in studies related to international relations, the security of activists, especially in the regional arena, is considered as one of the most important principles in the foreign policy of countries. Especially since the political-security issues after the Arab Spring in the region, have made common interests among the regional actors, and added to the growing concern of Middle East about security. For this reason, today, the regional counterparts in the Middle East who have common interests have generally focused on regional security assemblies in order to maintain their survival. In this regard, the security agenda in the Middle East concerns the crisis in Yemen, which may extend to other areas and challenge the other players' interests. That’s why, the Islamic Republic of Iran, as an active actor and regional hegemony, has been struggling to adopt a protective approach for the Yemeni nation-state in order to secure its regional security since the beginning and growth of the crisis in Yemen. Therefore, the focus of this study is on the efforts of the Islamic Republic of Iran to maintain the axis of resistance, the geopolitical security of Yemen, and to maintain its ideological and regional influence. So, the main question of the present research focuses on the issue which is "what approach of the foreign policy can be relied on for the analysis of the position of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding the crisis in Yemen. Manuscript profile
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        110 - The Future Study of the Special US-British Relationship in the Post-BREXIT
        ali mohammmadian Ahmad Naghibzadeh
        DOR:20.1001.1.24234974.1398.12.47.3.8
          Abstract: The June 23, 2016 referendum and the 51% vote on Britain's separation from the European Union have caused numerous ambiguities and many uncertainties for foreign policy researchers on the future of British politics at the national and international leve More
          Abstract: The June 23, 2016 referendum and the 51% vote on Britain's separation from the European Union have caused numerous ambiguities and many uncertainties for foreign policy researchers on the future of British politics at the national and international levels. One of those uncertainties is the future of special relations between Britain and the United States, which has so far had a unique and unique status in its foreign policy. The United Kingdom and the United States are the countries that have enjoyed joint interests over the past decades in their unique international and regional affairs. Therefore, the present paper aims to answer the question by analyzing the descriptive-analytical method with the emphasis on the futuristic approach and collecting and analyzing the question of how the US's relations with the United Kingdom in the post-Treasury period will go. Thus, after examining the relations between the two countries over the past years, using the three scenarios (desirable, probable, and possible), the future of the two countries with the impact of the international environment, and in particular the European Union, will be understandable with the political, economic, cultural and security implications. What the researcher says is that Britain's withdrawal from the European Union will not only impede relations between the two countries, but will also make Britain take more serious action. Manuscript profile
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        111 - The Future of Iraq and Its Related Scenarios (2010 - 2020)
        Malektaj Khosravi Khosravi Ehsan Khosbani Yazdani
        DOR:20.1001.1.24234974.1398.12.46.3.6
        Since the Second World War up to now and in contemporary political history, Iraq was one of the most challenging countries in south west Asia (Middle East). Unmistakable, determinant and important role of Iraq in political conditions in geopolitics of the region is one More
        Since the Second World War up to now and in contemporary political history, Iraq was one of the most challenging countries in south west Asia (Middle East). Unmistakable, determinant and important role of Iraq in political conditions in geopolitics of the region is one of the main reasons of these challenges. Like the past, Iraq has the key and determinant role in the current developments of the region. This role will lead to interest and actions conflict among different regional and international powers in this supersensitive region. The main objective of this research is the future of Iraq with respect to political and security conditions of this country. In the context of secondary objectives we can refer to influence of internal, regional and international actors in Iraq’s current developments, predicting territorial future of Iraq and feasibility study of Iraq’s disintegration. Researcher based on the future studies, with respect to the type of current trends and also through the game theory, surveyed the subject. Within analyzing the subject, the role of different actors and alter ant factors in geopolitical scene of Iraq and its impacts on the future and territorial integrity of Iraq is surveyed. Finally after planning probable scenarios about disintegration or non-disintegration of Iraq through the next decade, the future of this country is anticipated as follows: 1- Iraq disintegration scenario 2- Iraq civil war scenario3- democratic and square distribution of power scenario.  At last, the position of actors in respect to mentioned scenarios, before and after ISIS outbreak in Iraq as well as determinant factors of actors’ role in Geopolitical scene of Iraq are surveyed. And finally the result of this research is that: disintegration of Iraq through the next decade is not possible. Manuscript profile
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        112 - Using SWAT Model to Investigate the Impact of Rangeland Management Practices on Water Conservation (Case Study: Gorganroud Watershed, Golestan, Iran)
        Mohadeseh Zadsar Mojgansadat Azimi
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        113 - Prioritization of Rangeland Species Functions with Emphasis on Indigenous Knowledge of Range Holders (Case study: Titoeieh Area in Baft Township, Kerman, Iran)
        Hossein Arzani Nahid Hamzehnejad Reza Bagheri Seyed Akbar Javadi
        Manuscript profile
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        114 - Scenarios of building an Islamic society based on the middle links of the advancement of the Islamic Republic of Iran
        nafise akhavan nilchi mohamad rahim eivazi mahdi naderi
        The Islamic revolution is now in the stage of building an Islamic society on the way to the realization of the new Islamic civilization. In the Islamic society, the connection of people with people under the shadow of Islam pursues the growth of the individual and the s More
        The Islamic revolution is now in the stage of building an Islamic society on the way to the realization of the new Islamic civilization. In the Islamic society, the connection of people with people under the shadow of Islam pursues the growth of the individual and the society. The construction of such a society depends on the participation of people, and the focal point of bringing people to the stage in the direction of ideals, based on the theoretical model of the Supreme Leader, is the flow of middle circles. Therefore, this article, considering the mission and functions of middle circles, depicted the future scenarios of building an Islamic society based on the flow of middle circles. The statistical population is 12 experts related to the subject and Peter Schwartz's scenario writing method was used. Two uncertainties, the uncertainty of people's trust in the government and the recognition and empowerment of popular groups provided the logic of drawing scenarios and finally it was determined that the ideal scenario of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the new capacity building of the middle circles to take advantage of people power Manuscript profile
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        115 - Energy Scheduling in Power Market under Stochastic Dependence Structure
        Mehdi Farhadkhani
        Manuscript profile
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        116 - Asset allocation in pension funds by using an integrated approach of scenario planning and best-worst method (BWM)
        seyed mahdi razavi mosa bozorgasl meisam amiry Mohammadhasan Ebrahimi Sarve Olya Vahid Khasehi Varnamkhasti
        Public pension funds in Iran, due to several factors like elder population, accumulation of government debts, increasing the number of pensioners in comparison with the current employees, inefficient management of investments, and lack of good investment policies, will More
        Public pension funds in Iran, due to several factors like elder population, accumulation of government debts, increasing the number of pensioners in comparison with the current employees, inefficient management of investments, and lack of good investment policies, will encounter serious crises in the coming years. One of the solutions to tackle this problem is to employ scientific asset allocation models of pension funds. According to the strategic nature of these decisions, in this research, scenario planning was employed to identify the possible scenarios pension funds encountering with. In order to identifying the most important and relevant uncertainties and scenarios, a combination of Fuzzy Delphi Method, Wilson Matrix, and Morphological analysis were used. Findings depicted five scenarios of oil Inflation, currency inflation, non-oil inflation, and resistant economy are the most probable scenarios and pension funds will have to allocate their assets according to the characteristics of these scenarios. Next, best worst method (BWM), was employed to extract each scenario weight and asset classes weights in each scenario as well. To our knowledge, this was the first time to combine such methods in an integrated manner to tackle the asset allocation problem. Manuscript profile
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        117 - Multi-period portfolio optimization model design with a new approach to fuzzy uncertainty
        Zahra Khandan Barkousaraee Emran Mohammadi Farzad Movahedi Sobhani
        Portfolio optimization and selection is one of the most important issues in the financial world, so investors are trying to make decisions that are most in line with the real world. But the uncertainty in data and parameters, and the contradiction in the investor's goal More
        Portfolio optimization and selection is one of the most important issues in the financial world, so investors are trying to make decisions that are most in line with the real world. But the uncertainty in data and parameters, and the contradiction in the investor's goals, adds to the complexity of the stock portfolio optimization problem, and the other hand because of the efficient market, it is necessary to use multi-period models that, unlike single-period models, allow the investor to review their wealth at the beginning of each period. This paper introduces a new approach to optimizing a multi-period portfolio optimization based on fuzzy general theory and using scenario tree to deal with uncertainties. In addition to considering all of the above constraints, It has made it possible for the investor to be able to apply his manner by changing the parameter to optimistic-pessimistic, and there is no need to model in credibility, necessity or possibility mode. Then the proposed model is solved by the Epsilon constraint method. Finally, using the data of 17 companies from different industries operating in the Tehran Stock Exchange Market in 1398, we examine the validity of the model and its efficiency. Manuscript profile
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        118 - Design portfolio using a scenario planning approach using Assumption-based planning
        feridoon Rahnamay Roodposhti Neda Shirinbayan
        The market capitalization of the main pillars of the economy of any country is mentioned as a showcase and a thermometer of the economy, which represents the country's economy. Design portfolio as one of the most important issues in the financial sector has been conside More
        The market capitalization of the main pillars of the economy of any country is mentioned as a showcase and a thermometer of the economy, which represents the country's economy. Design portfolio as one of the most important issues in the financial sector has been considered by capital market participants. This research started by identifying the most important factors affecting capital markets and the use of questionnaires and enjoying views of financial experts to select the critical factors deals. Data obtained from this phase was followed by an assessment questionnaires matched. Experts in this questionnaire to select one of the dimensions of uncertainty and its impact on the index were equal exchange industry. In order to calculate the similarity between uncertainty and industries Kappa test was used. Then analyzes the results of the previous stage using planning assumptions were based. Finally, with regard to the selection of possible scenarios and possible choice of industry-based planning method was assumed. To examine and analyze statistical data and drawing graphs Spss and Excel used. Assumption-based planning of futures studies  methods. In this study, a new quantitative approach to portfolio design was introduced. The results show assumption-based planning used for portfolio optimization  and also outperformed the market index is. Manuscript profile
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        119 - Effect of climate change on phenological stages and growth stages of wheat in Zabol region
        Hamid Mohammadi Mahmoud Ramroudi Mohammad Bannayan Mohammadreza Asghripour Hamid Reza Fanaee
        Climate change can affect the crop yield and water consumption in agriculture by changing duration of phenological stage, crop yield and evapotranspiration. In this research a number of GCM models were selected and forecasted annual mean temperature of the region was va More
        Climate change can affect the crop yield and water consumption in agriculture by changing duration of phenological stage, crop yield and evapotranspiration. In this research a number of GCM models were selected and forecasted annual mean temperature of the region was validated. The climate models forecast 2 to 5 °C by the end of this century in Zabol. Therefore, three temperature scenarios (zero, +2 and +5), representing no temperature change, the minimum temperature increasing and the maximum temperature increasing, respectively were added to the observed data temperature. The effect of climate change was examined on duration the growth season and phonological stages of wheat (Triticum aestivum), as well as evapotranspiration in Zabol based on planting date and conventional variety. The GDD method was used for calculating the phonologic stages. Hargreaves – Samani model was used for measuring the effect of climate change scenarios on evapotranspiration. Results showed that 2 °C increasing temperature by the end of the century reduced growth duration of wheat by 14 days compared to no temperature change. In addition, early growth evapotranspiration decreased by 20 percent. Increasing 5 °C decrease growth duration of wheat by 32 days and increasing early evapotranspiration by 46 % growth in region. Climate change influenced wheat culture in region. Coping with these changes require planning for production components change according to today's conditions or define new conditions based on adaptive patterns. Manuscript profile
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        120 - Consequence Modeling of a Rupture of Methyl Diethanolamine (MDEA) Storage Spherical Tank (Catastrophic Rupture Scenario)
        Mojtaba Khorani Mohsen Mansouri Seyyed Hossein Hosseini Naimeh Setarehshenas
        10.22034/jchr.2020.1875552.1043
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        121 - The Genre and Aesthetic Essence in Drama and Screen Play
        Abbas Baghi Nezhad
        Abstract Both drama and screen play can be deemed either as literary genres or artistic types. Due to their linguistic structures as well as the linguistic capacity and rhetorical artifice implemented in the content by writers, drama and screen play are categorized as More
        Abstract Both drama and screen play can be deemed either as literary genres or artistic types. Due to their linguistic structures as well as the linguistic capacity and rhetorical artifice implemented in the content by writers, drama and screen play are categorized as literary types in a fashion that both of them are regarded as a literary genre and a type of prose. In effect, it is the textual dramatic capacity, dramatic diction, and the rendering of the dramatic words into objective symbols and emblems that delineate the discrepancy between works of drama and screen play and other literary genres. Although drama and screen play do not have a long history in Iran, they have gained such a stature that a great deal of contemporary competent writers have been dealing with writing them. Accordingly, despite their dramatic and artistic affiliation with the realm of theater and cinema, these literary genres, together with their specific styles of writing, maintain a highly significant status in contemporary Iranian literature. This study surveys the background of drama and screen writing in Iran in order to investigate analytically the essence of these two literary genres. Correspondingly, the confluence, similarities and dissimilarities between these two genres and other types of art and literature have been explored. Manuscript profile
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        122 - Design of Fuzzy Scenario-Based Cognitive Map of Environmental Indicators of Performance Excellence Model (Case Study: Yazd Steel Industries)
        omid golshan tafti seyed heidar mirfakhradini davood endelib ardakani habib zare ahmadabadi
        Economic activities use and depend on natural resources, and the nature of their processes is such that they potentially pollute the environment. Therefore, environmental evaluation practices in various industries, including the steel industries, should be reviewed. The More
        Economic activities use and depend on natural resources, and the nature of their processes is such that they potentially pollute the environment. Therefore, environmental evaluation practices in various industries, including the steel industries, should be reviewed. The purpose of this study is to identify the environmental indicators of performance excellence model of Yazd Steel Industries and design the relationships between them through fuzzy cognitive map. This study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of type and data collection. At first, with the meta-synthesis approach, 40 articles were reviewed as samples and in order to identify complementary indicators, environmental activists in the steel industry were interviewed, in which 269 environmental indicators, 36 concepts and 9 categories of performance excellence model were identified. In order to collect data and examine the relationship between environmental concepts, industrial and academic experts have completed the questionnaires and with the fuzzy cognitive map technique and FCMapper and Pajek softwares, a linking model between factors and scenario making has been designed. The research findings from the designed fuzzy cognitive map show 157 relationships between 36 concepts, of which six scenarios are obtained in two ways, backward scenario and forward scenario Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        123 - Identifying Strategic Factors and Scenario Planning in the Banking Industry with an Uncertainty Approach
        Mahdi Joneidi Jafari AliReza Jalali Farahani
        The main purpose of this study is to identify the most likely future scenarios of the banking industry in order to investigate and analyze the sub-objectives of the research, including identifying key factors and strategic drivers affecting the Iranian banking industry. More
        The main purpose of this study is to identify the most likely future scenarios of the banking industry in order to investigate and analyze the sub-objectives of the research, including identifying key factors and strategic drivers affecting the Iranian banking industry. Therefore, this study seeks to identify the most important possible scenarios for the banking industry while identifying the strategic factors affecting the future of the banking industry and also examining and analyzing their interactions. The research is practical in terms of purpose and cross-sectional in time. In order to identify the strategic factors affecting the banking industry, the library method was used and 84 factors were identified. Then, using the fuzzy Delphi method, strategic factors were selected and academic and industry experts selected 37 factors. Then, the interaction analysis matrix method and Micmac software were used to evaluate and identify key factors, and 9 strategic factors were included in the scenario wizard software to form the portfolio of future scenarios of the banking industry. Finally based on the output of the scenario wizard, two scenarios including two optimal and critical modes are drawn and analyzed Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        124 - Developing Transition Scenarios to the Improved Situation of Science and Technology Policy Structure in Iran
        esmaeel kalantari gholamali montazer Seyed Sepehr Ghazinoory
        The institutional structure of science and technology policy-making has been the focus of scholars in recent decades. Despite the importance of this issue in Iran, the turbulence of the institutional structure has meant the multiplicity of policy makers and their ineffe More
        The institutional structure of science and technology policy-making has been the focus of scholars in recent decades. Despite the importance of this issue in Iran, the turbulence of the institutional structure has meant the multiplicity of policy makers and their ineffective interactions have caused a great deal of criticism among scholars. In this study, firstly, through the policy documents of science and technology and interviews with 20 experts in this field in Iran, the status of the institutional structure of science and technology policy making in Iran at national level is explained. Then, in order to get out of the current situation and based on the views of experts, two scenarios have been proposed as an improved structure of science and technology policy making in Iran is based on the OECD model in three stages of "formulating national policies and priorities"; "designing programs and policies"; and "policy evaluation". The two main presuppositions in designing these scenarios have been to avoid eliminating policy makers, at least in the short term, and to avoid establishing a new institution in this field. It is worth noting that these scenarios are designed as transitional scenarios from the current situation to the desired situation. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        125 - Banking Industry Macro Strategies through Scenario Approach
        farhad shamshiri Abdulhamid Ebrahimi
        The purpose of this study is to determine the scenarios of the banking industry with a future studies approach and how to achieve the possible scenarios. This research by purpose is research-practical oriented that collects information using qualitative methods. Data co More
        The purpose of this study is to determine the scenarios of the banking industry with a future studies approach and how to achieve the possible scenarios. This research by purpose is research-practical oriented that collects information using qualitative methods. Data collection tools are questionnaires, interviews, taking notes and statistical and information networks. In this research, the statistical population is the managers and specialists of the banking industry who, according to the type of information needed to conduct the research, a sample of 66 experts in the field of banking was selected in a way non-probability and judgmental sampling. The methodology of this research is based on scenario writing. So, after formulating the initial question and identifying the main subject, forming an expert panel, conducting exploratory interviews and identifying the driving forces, 64 variables were provided to the experts in the form of a 64 * 64 matrix as the primary factors affecting the banking industry. Then, using the Mic Mac software, 12 key factors were extracted and classified into 38 different situations. Then, these situations were presented to the experts for all key factors in a 38 * 38 matrix and analyzed in the Scenario Wizard software. Finally, 3 strong scenarios, 1 believable scenario and 8 weak scenarios were identified and Strategies were presented to develop the banking industry. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        126 - Potato Irrigation Planning based on Moisture depletion using AquaCrop
        Mohammad Ali Ansari Aslan Egdernezhad Niazali Ebrahimipak
        In order to potato irrigation planning based on moisture depletion, calibrated AquaCrop was used. This model was calibrated using data collected from a research station in Chahartakhteh, Shahrekord, in two years. Then, Aquacrop was implemented under multi run in differe More
        In order to potato irrigation planning based on moisture depletion, calibrated AquaCrop was used. This model was calibrated using data collected from a research station in Chahartakhteh, Shahrekord, in two years. Then, Aquacrop was implemented under multi run in different depletion and irrigation scenarios (DyIx; which y indicates depletion amount and x indicates irrigation amount in mm). Results revealed that there was no water stress under 40 mm depletion and 40 mm irrigation. Crop yield and biomass was so low when depletion was more than 80 mm. In order to apply deficit irrigation, depletion must be between 40 to 70 mm. Based on the results, maximum yield was observed for D40I40 (22.6 ton.ha-1) and minimum yield was observed for D70I20 (10.8 ton.ha-1). In the case of water deficit, D60I40, D60I30, and D65I30 were the best scenarios so that the yields for mentioned scenarios were 16.8, 22.2, and 27 percent less than D40I40 yield. Biomass values for mentioned scenarios were 16.6, 21.8, and 26.7 percent less than D40I40 biomass. Water use efficiency for this scenarios were 0.7 (more), 0.7 (less), and 1.9 (less) than D40I40 one. So, D40I40 and D60I40 were the best scenario in full and deficit irrigation, respectively. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        127 - Drawing scenarios for the opportunities and threats of Arab ethnocentrism in relation to the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran
        Hossein Torki MohammadAli Khosravi Ali ghorbanpour
        National security is the basic condition and, of course, the most important condition for the preservation, survival, progress and development of any country in all fields. In order to predict the security situation of the country in the coming years, it is absolutely n More
        National security is the basic condition and, of course, the most important condition for the preservation, survival, progress and development of any country in all fields. In order to predict the security situation of the country in the coming years, it is absolutely necessary to pay attention to the ethnic situation and ethnic challenges. The purpose of this study is to outline scenarios for the opportunities and threats of Arab ethnicity in relation to the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran.This research is applied in terms of nature and purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of method and due to the futuristic nature of the research, it is also exploratory. For this purpose, the effective factors in the field of Arab ethnocentrism were identified using the method of environmental monitoring and reviewing specialized studies in this field and were provided to 15 experts in the form of a matrix questionnaire. The obtained variables were spectroscopically cross-sectionalized using Mick Mac software and analyzed using scenario wizard software while obtaining expert opinions, and finally possible and compatible scenarios were identified and extracted.The findings of this study showed that scenario number one is the strongest and most probable scenario obtained from Wizard scenario software. Condition means (reduction of fine dust) is the desired condition. Manuscript profile

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