Assessment and Analysis of the Future Situation of the Favorable Urban Governance in Iranian Cities Based on Baseline Scenario (Case Study: Tehran City)
Subject Areas : Futurologykiyan shakarami 1 , masoud chharrahi 2 , mozzafar hasanvand 3
1 - PHD student
2 - Master of Geography and Urban Planning
3 - PHD student
Keywords: "Urban Management", "Tehran City", "Urban Governance", "Scenario",
Abstract :
Background: Today, among the various approaches proposed in the field of urban management, good urban governance is one of the most famous and most effective approaches Purpose: The purpose of the study was to identify and evaluate the most significant variables and principal determinants affecting the future of urban governance up to the 2031 horizon for the Tehran metropolis. It was also looking for the most likely scenarios in the field of urban governance in the 2032 horizon for the Tehran metropolis. Research method: The present study used structural analysis and cross-effect analysis to look to analyze the data. The data and information required for the research were a combination of quantitative and qualitative data, which were gathered through documentary research and survey method (questionnaire) and interview with experts in a Delphi model. For data analysis, MICMAC software was used to analyze the interactions of variables and Morphol software to compile scenarios. Findings: Finally, out of a total of 100,000 output scenarios, 5000 scenarios were identified as valid and, given the impossibility of analyzing this number, 10 scenarios with high inertia were selected, and among these 10 scenarios, 4 scenarios with the highest inertia and repeat rates of over 90% were analyzed in subsequent scenarios. Conclusion: The results showed that there was no any ideal scenario among the scenarios and the only favorable scenario was the response variable that has been repeated in all four scenarios, which indicated the weakness of Tehran's metropolitan management structure in realizing good urban governance.
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