Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on the Aridity Index Under the Scenarios of the CMIP6 in Iran: looking at Industries

Subject Areas : Drought in meteorology and agriculture

Hadi Ramezani Etedali ¹ , Sakine Koohi ²

1 - Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
2 - PhD Student, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

Received: 2024-07-27 Accepted : 2024-10-19 Published : 2024-12-11

Keywords: climate change, SSP scenarios, De Martonne index, industrial workshops,

Abstract :

Background and Aim: Due to the global warming and climate change and its outcomes are among the most significant environmental challenges today. Iran, as a country with a semi-arid and arid climate, has always faced issues such as water scarcity and drought, climate change can exacerbate these problems and have destructive effects on the environment, economy, and human societies. Thus, a precise understanding of the impacts of climate on the land is crucial for reducing societal vulnerability, enhancing resilience against climate changes, and preserving the country's natural resources. In this context, this study aims to examine the effects of climate change on the aridity index on seasonal and annual scales under the climate scenarios of the latest climate report (CMIP6). This study aims to offer a comprehensive outlook on the number of industries likely to be affected by varying intensities of climatic drought across Iran by providing long-term drought forecasts under the SSP climate scenarios.

Method: In this study, data from 31 synoptic stations distributed across the country were utilized. Precipitation and temperature data from the statistical period 1997 to 2014 served as observational data, while high-resolution climate data from NEX-GDDP provided the basis for projections for the three future periods of 2025-2049, 2050-2074, and 2075-2099. These data were analyzed under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The climate models used in this research included CNRM-CM6-1, CanESM5, GFDL-ESM4, HadGEM3-GC31-LL, and MIROC6. The monitoring of changes in the aridity index was performed using the De Martonne aridity index. An evolutionary algorithm was employed to optimize the coefficients of the climate models and their integration. The statistical indices RMSE, MAE, and MBE were used to evaluate the performance of the climate outputs compared to the observed values in the base period.

Results: The climatic classification of the studied stations, based on the De Martonne aridity index for the period from 1997 to 2014, indicates that 39% of the stations are situated in semi-arid climates, while 23% are in dry climates. The findings reveal that the stations in Sistan and Baluchistan, Yazd, Khuzestan, and Hormozgan are classified as very dry climates. The evaluation of the climatic output accuracy, using statistical indices, demonstrated that there is no significant bias in precipitation and temperature estimations for 81% and 90% of the stations, respectively. An analysis of changes in the De Martonne aridity index for the upcoming three periods, relative to the base period, shows a trend toward increased dryness in the stations of Isfahan, Qom, Semnan, Kerman, Hormozgan, Mazandaran, Golestan, Ilam, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Fars, and Tehran. Furthermore, a review of the distribution of industrial facilities and their water consumption reveals that provinces such as Isfahan, Fars, Tehran, Alborz, East Azarbaijan, and Razavi Khorasan each host over 1,250 industrial workshops. The industrial water usage in East Azarbaijan, Tehran, Isfahan, Khuzestan, Bushehr, and Razavi Khorasan exceeds 62,217,790 m³.

Conclusion: The results indicate that, based on observational data from the base period, a significant portion of the country falls within semi-arid to very arid climate classes. The base period’s results suggest that precipitation and temperature data from the sixth climate change report are valuable resources for monitoring future drought conditions under various climate scenarios. The findings reveal that the decrease in the DMI is more pronounced during the summer and autumn seasons compared to spring and winter. Overall, the results demonstrate that, under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, many provinces in the country will experience a shift towards semi-arid, dry, and very dry climate conditions. Given the concentration of industrial workshops in these provinces, it is imperative to develop and implement strategies for water resource management in these areas. The outcomes of this research can significantly contribute to the sustainable management of water resources in the face of climate change.

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