Future Study of Decision Models in Business Using Scenario Planning Approach

Subject Areas : Futurology

Mohammad Hassan  Maleki ¹ (Department of Industrial Management, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Qom, Qom, Iran)
Mohammad Reza  Fathi ² (Assistant professor of management and accounting, Farabi campus of Tehran University, Qom, Iran (Corresponding Author))

Received: 2016-09-29 Accepted : 2017-01-03 Published : 2017-05-22

Keywords: Operations Research, Future study, Decision Models, Scenario Planning, Exploratory Scenarios, Plausible Scenario,

Abstract :

From the beginning, Operations Research or decision models have been met with several developments. Futures survey of OR and the necessity of planning for it in literature is considered less. Sporadic activities in the literature haven’t required methodological. This study aims to identify the exploratory scenarios of OR by Critical Uncertainties approach. To develop the plausible scenarios of OR, the comments of domestic and foreign experts were collected by questionnaire with Delphi approach. After extracting the uncertainties, the plausible scenarios of OR were identified by seminar workshops. These scenarios include: solar system, Esfandiar eye, competitor Satraps, Phoenix. Imagination of the single future for all academic departments is away from reality. According to the conditions, each of these futures and a combination of them are imaginable.