Investigation of Immigration to Tehran Using Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
Subject Areas : Futurology
Aliollah Ghanbari
1
(
دانشجوی دوره دکتری آینده پژوهی
)
Keywords: causal layered analysis, deconstruction, Scenario, Litany, systemic causes, discourse/worldview, myth/metaphor,
Abstract :
Tehran's population growth and the entry of new immigrants has been one of the problems for governors, policy makers, and planners. Therefore, since the middle decades of the current century, as a concern, it has been considered as a threat to social, environmental, health, and disaster preparedness issues. However, the activities have been performed to prevent Tehran population growth, failed to achieve success and in spite of all these activities, the problem of Tehran population and immigration growth still exists.In this paper, causal layered analysis (CLA) as a futures study method is used for splitting and analyzing the several layers leading to the issue of Tehran immigration growth, and different scenarios are considered for the future. In this regard, based on analysis of the under layers and due to the uncertainty and importance, "development model" and "cultural orientation" are identified as its drivers and the scenarios are designed according to them.
