Application of Era-Based Cellular Planning for Crisis Management of Earthquake in Tehran with Emphasis on Scenario Planning

Subject Areas : Urban Management Studies

mohadeseh Azimi ¹ , A. A. Pourezzat ² , آرین Gholipour ³ , A. A. Saadabadi ⁴

1 -
2 -
3 -
4 -

Received: 2014-09-23 Accepted : 2014-11-22 Published : 2014-11-22

Keywords: Crisis management, Earthquake of Tehran, Scenario Planning, Era-Based Cellular Planning,

Abstract :

Tehran including earthquake-prone cities in the world those Seismic scientists have repeatedly warned about the earthquake in it. Recently, scientists have considered scenario planning and comprehensive programs for disaster. Therefore, era-based cellular planning (ECP) which has many scenarios to confront with probability future is suggested. For investigating the possibility of using this planning was interviewed with ten experts at universities and related organizations and used thematic technique for analysis data. 6 themes- how to scenario planning, relations between scenarios, step by step scenario planning and the most important scenarios for each phase - has finally been found. Paying attention to knowledge of scenario planning based on ECP's characteristics such as dividing scenarios to sub-scenarios, creating synergetic relations between sub-scenarios and consideration to era of each scenario is the innovation of research which shows that scenario planning is possible and it is necessary for studying in infrastructures to create better crisis management.

References:

پور عزت، علی اصغر.  (1389). مدیریت راهبردی عصرمدار (رویکرد آینده پژوهانه به منافع عمومی). تهران: دانشگاه امام صادق.

زنگی آبادی، علی و نازنین تبریزی.  (1385). زلزله­ی تهران و ارزیابی فضایی آسیب­پذیری مناطق شهری. پژوهش­های جغرافیایی. شماره 56. 130-115

عزیز پور، ملکه و علی زنگی آبادی و زهرا اسماعیلیان.  (1390). اولویت­بندی عوامل مؤثر در مدیریت بحران شهری در برابر بلایای طبیعی  (مطالعه موردی سازمان­های مرتبط با بحران شهر اصفهان ). مجله جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی محیطی. سال 22. شماره 3. 124-107.

گزارش پژوهشگاه بین المللی زلزله­شناسی و مهندسی زلزله با عنوان" تعیین ضرایب بزرگنمایی ساختگاه و استخراج توابع شکنندگی و روابط برآورد تلفات انسانی در اثر زلزله برای ساختمان­های شهر تهران"1389. 511-1

گزارش نهایی پروژه ریزپهنه بندی لرزه ای تهران بزرگ (جایکا).1380

Ainoya, N. and Myrtle, R.C.  (2005), "Responding To a Natural Disaster: How Japanese Government's Responses To The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Were Mirrored In The Eye Of The Media", International Journal of Organization Theory and Behavior, Vol. 8, pp. 287-312.

Ashtari. J, M.  (2010). "Statistical prediction of the next great earthquake around Tehran, Iran".Journal of Geodynamics .Vol. 49: 14–18

Baltar, F., I. Brunet.  (2012). "Social research 2.0: virtual snowball sampling method using Facebook", Internet Research, Vol. 22  (1) :57 – 74

Bishop, P., A. Hines and T. Collins.  (2007). "The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques". Foresight. Vol. 9  (1) : 5-25

Cabinet Office Government of Japan.  (2013), The Scenario-Based Plan for a Large-Scale Earthquake in Tokyo Metropolitan Area. 7th Senior Disaster Management Officials Forum Bali, Indonesia.

Chen, N.  (2009). "Institutionalizing public relations: A case study of Chinese government crisis communication on the 2008 Sichuan earthquake". Public Relations Review. Vol. 35,pp.187–198

Chen, T. Y., Y. Olivers, H. George. J .y, H. Fang. M and S. We. N.  (2009). "Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: A case study for Taiwan". Energy Policy. Vol. 37, pp. 2900–2906

Chermack, T, J.  (2005). "Studying scenario planning: Theory, research suggestions, and hypotheses". Technological Forecasting & Social Change. Vol .72 : 59-73

City and County of San Francisco Emergency Response Plan  (Earthquake Annex).  (2008)

Clarke, V., V. Braun.  (2006). "Using thematic analysis in psychology". journal of Qualitative Research in Psychology. Vol. 3, pp. 77-101

Coombs, W. T.  (2007)." Crisis Management and Communications". Institute for Public Relations. Access at www.instituteforpr.org.

Creswell, J., D. Miller.  (2000). "Determining Validity in Qualitative Inquiry", Theory into Practice, 39 (3), 124–30

Davis, James. F., Jhon ,H. Bennett., Glenn , A.Borchardt., James, E.Khale., Salem, J. Rice and Michael, A. Silva.  (1982), "Earthquake planning scenario for a magnitude 8.3 earthquake on the San Andreas fault in the San Francisco Bay Area" , Published by California Dept. of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology . Access at https://openlibrary.org

EARTHQUAKE MASTER PLAN FOR ISTANBUL.  (2003)

Farzipour. S., A, R. Farzipour- S.  (2012)," Assessment of the site effect vulnerability within urban regions by data envelopment analysis: A case study in Iran", Computers & Geosciences doi:10.1016/j.cageo.2012.01.018.

FEMA.  (2011)," Scenario Exercise for Community Planning", Access at www.fema.gov

FEMA.  (2014)," INTRODUCTION TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT", Access at www.fema.gov in Jun 2014.

Global Business Network, "What If? Scenario Thinking for Non-Profits". Access at GBN website www.gbn.com.

Heinzen, Barbara J.  (1995), "Crisis Management and Scenarios the search for an appropriate methodology". Ministry of Home Affairs, the Netherlands.

Jaques, T.  (2009). "Issue and Crisis Management: Quicksand in the Definitional Landscape. Public". Relations Review. Vol. 35 No. 3, pp. 280-286

Kvale, S.  (1996). "Interviews: An Introduction to Qualitative Research Interviewing". Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks California.

Montoya- M, A. L.  (2002)," Urban Disaster Management: A Case Study of Earthquake Risk Assessment in Cartago, Costa Rica", ITC Publication Series, No. 96.

Nateghi-A, F.  (2001), "Earthquake scenario for the mega-city of Tehran", Disaster Prevention and Management, Vol. 10, pp. 95 – 101.

Parlak, A. I., J. H. Lambert, T. M. Guterbock and J. L. Clements.  (2012). "Population behavioral scenarios influencing radiological disaster preparedness and planning". Accident Analysis and Prevention. Vol.  48 : 353– 362

Phelps, R. C., S.C. Chan.  (2001). "Does scenario planning affect performance? Two exploratory studies". Journal of Business Research.Vol. 51, pp. 223-232

Pourezzat, A, A., G. Taheri Attar and S, M. Sharifmousavi.  (2011). "Application of Era-Based Cellular Planning for Development of E-Government in Developing Countries". International Journal of Innovation in the Digital Economy, Vol. 2: 1-11

Pourezzat, A. A., M. Nejati, G. Taheri. A and S. M. Sharifmousavi.  (2011). "Scenario planning and futurology of the Persian Gulf post-oil economy". Foresight. Vol.  (13) : 18 – 33

Rafee, N., Karbassi, A. R., Nouri, J., Safari, E. and Mehrdadi, M.  (2008) "Strategic Management of Municipal Debris aftermath of an earthquake". Int. J. Environ. Res, 2 (2): 205-214, ISSN: 1735-6865

Shaw, R., R. Sinha.  (2003). "Towards Sustainable Recovery: Future Challenges after the Gujarat Earthquake, India". Risk Management, Vol. 5 No. 3, pp. 35-51

Varum, C. A., C. Melo.  (2010). Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades. Futures. Vol. 42: 355-369

Volkery, A., T. Ribeiro.  (2009). "Scenario planning in public policy: Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors". Journal of Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Vol. 76: 1198-1207

Ways, B, S., C. Burbank.  (2005). "Scenario Planning". Public Roads. Vol. 69  (2) : 1-11

Wollenburg, E., D. Edmunds and L. Buck.  (2000). "Using scenario to make decisions about the future: Anticipatory learning for the adaptive co-management of community forests". Landscape and urban planning, Vol. 47: 65-77

Zafarani, H., A. Noorzad, A. Ansari and K. Bargi.  (2009)," Stochastic modeling of Iranian earthquakes and estimation of ground motion for future earthquakes in Greater Tehran", Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, Vol. 29, pp.722-774.

Zegras, C., L. Rayle.  (2012). "Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning’s role as a catalyst for urban policy integration". Futures. Vol. 44: 303–318