Foresight on the effects of Implementation of water transfer from the Sirvan River (The Arid Areas Project) on the Location-Spatial Changes in Mehran County (Iran)

Subject Areas : Futurology

hamid jalalian ¹ , farhad azizpour ² , hossein mehdizadeh ³ , javad alibeygi ⁴

1 - Associate Professor of Rural Planning Department, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University
2 - Associate Professor of Rural Planning, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University
3 - Assistant Professor, Department of Entrepreneurship and Rural Development, College of Agriculture, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran
4 - Ph.D. student in Geography and Rural Planning, Department of Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University

Received: 2017-11-14 Accepted : 2018-04-23 Published : 2018-04-21

Keywords: Arid Areas Project, Mehran County, Locational-Spatial Changes, Foresight, Scenariosing,

Abstract :

Background: Nowdays, regarding to rapid environmental changes and uncertainties due to it, “Foresight” is considered as a strategy for Future research can be considered as one of these strategies for water comprehensive management Objective: This article discusses about the Foresight of locational-spatial changes due to implementation of the project from the Sirvan River to dried regions in the county of Mehran (Arid Areas Project) on the horizon of 2029.Methods: The theoretical framework of this research is based on new approaches to prospective, analytical, and exploratory science, which is carried out using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Due to the nature of this research, have been used of Delphi methods, structural analysis and scenario analysis findings: The data of this research includes 13 effective factors that were extracted from among 30 primary factors using Delphi method and Mick McAware software.Then, based on the idea of scenario planning, there were defined 52 possible and probable situations in the future of the county for the above factors and with the formation of a 52×52 matrix using the Scenario Wizard software, Finally extracted and analyzed 1 very desirable scenario, 11 desirable scenarios, 2 midway scenarios and continuation of the Continue current current situation, 8 scenarios on the eve of the crisis and 1 critical scenario that is in total of 23 believable scenarios. Conclusion: Possible scenarios, although they show high hopes for favorable conditions in the county, but on the other hand, do not consider the occurrence of critical situations as unexpected.