Forecasting the exchange rate using futures studies methods and examining the effect of currency fluctuations on the performance of companies: A case study of Iran Tobacco Company
Subject Areas : Food SecurityAlireza Fathinia 1 , Ali Badizadeh 2
1 - PhD student, Department of Industrial Management, Qazvin branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran (in charge of correspondence)
2 - Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran
Keywords: Futures studies, Scenario Writing, Exchange rate forecasting, money quantity theory, currency movement trends,
Abstract :
Exchange rates always have a high priority and attractiveness in society, especially among companies. Different methods are used to predict the exchange rate, among which structural methods as methods of fundamental analysis, a little precision in advance. They have an accurate forecast of the exchange rate, but they are very useful as a long-term perspective and illuminate the movement of the exchange rate. Technical compensation can be used to compensate for the shortcomings of these methods. Using futures research techniques, in addition to covering the study gap of futures research techniques in forecasting exchange rates, errors due to quantitative methods have been minimized so that companies are prepared for the occurrence of various situations. In the final part of the article, the effect of currency fluctuations on the performance indicators of the tobacco company during the last three years is examined. The results of the study indicate that currency fluctuations have the first and greatest impact on the implementation of development projects and also sudden economic shocks are not immediately reflected in the performance of companies and due to the presence of shock absorbers such as inventory in Warehousing, borrowing purchases and long-term debt creation, over time, gradually affect and weaken the company's performance.
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