Futures investment and financing of rail transportation industry (machinery and equipment)

Subject Areas : Futurology

Mohammad Reza Fathi ¹ ( Assistant Professor, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Farabi Campus, Tehran University, Iran, (Corresponding Author) [e-mail] )
Mohammad Hassan Maleki ² ( Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics and Management, Qom University, Iran )
Hossein Moghaddam ³ ( Master of Industrial Management, Institute for Management and Planning Education and Research, Iran )

Received: 2017-05-13 Accepted : 2018-10-09 Published : 2018-07-23

Keywords: Futures study, Railway transportation industry, writing scenarios, investment, Financing,

Abstract :

Transportation  industry  is  considered  as  one of the most important  elements  of  national  economy  and because  of  possessing  basically  role, has abundant  effects  on  process  of  economic  growth  of  the  country. Thus, without  existence of  transportation network, installations and  lateral equipment and desired fleet, imagination  of  growth and  general  development  of country  sounds  impossible. in  this research with  applying  two  methods  of  futures study  including structural  analysis  and  scenario  planning  at  first   proceed  to  identifying  and  analyzing  key effective  factors  and  then  futures  scenarios  of  investing  and  financing  in  railway transportation  industry (machinery and equipment sector) will be wrote. First data of this research are gathered with using interview with managers and experts of railway industry, literature review and review antecedent researches and   analyzed in the form of expert questionnaire and using Mic-mac software. among 40 effective factors, 16 important  factors  are  identified  and with analyzing Mic-mac software, eventually 3 effective key factors  including  economic  sanctions, inflation  and  monetary  and   financial   policies specified. These factors used as basically foundations in writing scenarios. Set of probable conditions of these factors specified by experts and then 7 uncertain conditions considered for them and entered to Scenario wizard software. with analysis of Scenario wizard  software, 5 scenarios with high consistency  presented and  then  with  regard  to  experts viewpoints, 2  effective  key  factors  including  economic sanctions and monetary and financial  policies that have high  uncertainty  and  high  importance, identified as pivots of  writing future scenarios  and then 4 scenarios for future of investing and financing in railway  transportation  industry  presented.