Simulation of the Effect of Climate Change on Yield and Water Use Efficiency of Potato (Solanum Tuberosum L.) in Ardabil
Subject Areas :
Agriculture and Environment
Atousa Shafaroodi
1
(
PhD Student of Department of Agronomy and Plant Breeding, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran *(Corresponding Author)
)
Abdolghayom Gholipouri
2
(
Assistance Professor, Department of Agronomy and Plant Breeding, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
)
Broumand Salahi
3
(
Assistance Professor, Department of Geography, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
)
Received: 2019-12-25
Accepted : 2020-06-02
Published : 2021-08-23
Keywords:
LARS-WG model,
Emission scenarios,
HadCM3 Model,
SUBSTOR-Potato Model,
Abstract :
Background and Objective: Climate change causes changes in rainfall patterns, temperatures and their amount, and these changes can affect plant performance. In this study, the efficiency of DSSAT model in simulating tuber yield and water use efficiency of potato plant under future climate change in different irrigation treatments and cultivar as an adaptation strategy was investigated.Material and Methodology: For this purpose, the precipitation data, minimum and maximum temperatures were produced using the LARS-WG5 statistical exponential micro-scale model (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator) under the HadCM3 general circulation model. The A1B scenario was applied to future periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100 and the basic period 1988-2016. DSSAT model and SUBSTOR-Potato model were used to simulate potato growth and yield. Prior to use, field data collected from Ardebil, Iran that were calibrated and validated. Then the values of tuber yield and water use efficiency were simulated in future periods. Three irrigation treatments were used such as full irrigation (FI), 15% less than control (LI1) and 30% less than control treatment (LI2), with five potato cultivars Agria (the conventional cultivation of the area), Caeser, Savalan, clones 397081-1, and 397082-10 with 3 replications.Finding: According to the results, under the A1B scenario at the irrigation levels of FI and LI1, simulated values of tuber yield and water use efficiency showed the highest values for 2040 and 2070 compared to the basal period. It was also simulated by selecting Savalan cultivars, 397081-1, and 397082-10 the highest increase for tuber yield and water use efficiency values for 2040 and 2070 periods.Discussion and Conclusion: In following, The Less reduction in percentage of yield allowed the low irrigation (LI1) to replace the full irrigation (FI) treatment in future periods compared to the baseline period. Because of the importance of conserving and saving water resources in future climate change periods, irrigation of 15% less than full irrigation is recommended for irrigation of potato fields. The results of the simulation of water use efficiency can also emphasize the use of irrigation treatment 15% less than the control.
References:
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IPCC. 2007. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Summary for Policy Makers. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Dahal, K., Li, X.Q., Tai, H., Creelman, A., Bizimungu, B., 2019. Improving potato stress tolerance and tuber yield under a climate change scenario – A current overview. Fronti in Plant Science. Vol. 10, pp. 1-16.
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Luo, X., Xia, J., Yang, H., 2015. Modeling water requirements of major crops and their responses to climate change in the North China Plain. Environmental Earth Science, Vol. 74, pp. 3531-3541.
Hatfield, J.L., Boote, K.J., Kimball, B.A., Ziska, L.H., Izaurralde, R.C., Ort, D., Thomson, A.M., Wolfe, D., 2011. Climate impacts on agriculture: implications for crop production. Agronomy Journal, Vol. 103, pp. 351-370.
Jones, J. W., Hoogenboom, G., Porter, C.H., Boote, K.J., Batchelor, W.D., Hunt, L.A., Wilkens, P.W., Singh, U., Gijsman, A.J., 2003. Ritchie. The DSSAT cropping system model. Europian Journal Agronomy, Vol. 18, pp. 235- 265.
Mehan, S., Guo, T., Gitau, M.V., Flanagan, D.C., 2017. Comparative study of different stochastic weather generators for long-term climate data simulation. Journal Climate, Vol. 5, pp. 1-40.
Araya, A., Kisekka, I., Lin, X., Vara Prasad, P.V., Gowda, P.H., Rice, C., Andales, A., 2017. Evaluating the impact of future climate change on irrigated maize production in Kansas. Climate Risk Management. Vol. 17, pp. 139–154.
Daccache, A., Weatherhead, E.K., Stalham, M.A., Knox, J.W., 2011. Impacts of climate change on irrigated potato production in a humid climate. Agriculture and Forest Meteology. Vol. 151, pp. 1641-1653.
Hoogenboom, G.J., Jones, W., Wilkens, P.W., Porter, C.H., Boote, K.J., Hunt, L.A., Singh, U., Lizaso, G.L., White, J.W., Uryasev, O., Royce, F.S., Ogoshi, R., Gijsman, A.J., Tsuji, G.Y., 2010. Decision support system for agro-technology transfer (DSSAT), university of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA.
Raymundo, R., Asseng, S., Robertson, R., Petsakos, A., Hoogenboom, G., Quiroz, R., Hareau, G., Wolf, j., 2018. Climate change impact on global potato production. European Journal Agronomy, Vol. 100, pp. 87-98.
Stastna, M., Toman, F., Dufkova, J., 2010. Usage of SUBSTOR model in potato yield prediction. Agriculture Water Management, Vol. 2, pp. 286-290.
Taei Semiromi, J., Amiri, E., Aeen, A., Borumand, N., Jowkar, M., 2017. Evaluation of DSSAT model for potential yield prediction of potato (Solanum tuberosum) under autumn cropping system (Case study: Jiroft, Iran). Journal Agriculture Crops Production, Vol. 19, pp. 893-905. (In Persian)
Li-li, ZH., Shu-hua, L., Zhi-min, W., Pu, W., Ying-hua, Zh., Hai-Jun, Y., Zhen, G., Si, Sh., Xiao, L., Jia-hui, W., Shun-li, Zh., 2018. A simulation of winter wheat crop responses to irrigation management using CERES-Wheat model in the North China Plain. Journal Integrative Agriculture. Vol. 17, pp. 1181-1193.
Saymohammadi, S., Zarafshani, K., Tvakoli, M., Mahdizadeh, H., Amiri, F., 2017. Prediction of climate change induced temperature & precipitation: the case of Iran. Sustainable Journal, Vol. 9, pp. 1-13.
Ababaei, B., Sohrabi, T., and Mirzaei, F., 2014. Development and application of a planning support system to assess strategies related to land and water resources for adaptation to climate change. Climate Risk Management, Vol. 6, pp. 39-50.
Arora, V.K., Nath, J.C., Singh, C.B., 2013. Analyzing potato response to irrigation and nitrogen regimes in a sub-tropical environment using SUBSTOR-Potato model. Agric. Water Management. Vol. 124, pp. 69-76.
Malkia, R., Hartani, T., Dechmi, F., 2016. Evaluation of DSSAT model for sprinkler irrigated potato: A case study of Northeast Algeria. African Journal Agriculture Research, Vol. 11, pp. 2589-2598.
Adavi, Z., Moradi, R., Saeidnejad, A.H., Tadayon, M.R., Mansouri, H., 2018. Assessment of potato response to climate change and adaptation strategies. Scientia Horticulture. Vol. 228, pp. 91-102.
Haverkort, A. J., Franke, A.C., Engelbrecht, F.A., Steyn, J.m., 2013. Climate change and potato production in contrasting South African agro-ecosystems 1. Effects on land and water use efficiencies. Potato Research. Vol. 56, pp. 31-50.
IPCC. 2007. (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Summary for Policy Makers. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Dahal, K., Li, X.Q., Tai, H., Creelman, A., Bizimungu, B., 2019. Improving potato stress tolerance and tuber yield under a climate change scenario – A current overview. Fronti in Plant Science. Vol. 10, pp. 1-16.
