Scenario planning and explanation of urban management development with an emphasis on earthquake vulnerability management with a future research approach using GIS, a case study of Mantasa Municipality 6, Tehran

Subject Areas :

poya  amiri ¹ (PhD student in geography and urban planning, Islamic Azad University, Lar Branch, Lar, Iran)
mohammad ebrahim  afifi ² (Assistant Professor of Islamic Azad University, Larestan branch)
Marziyeh  Mogholi ³ (faculty member Department of Geography, Larestan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Larestan, Iran)

Received: 2022-08-03 Accepted : 2022-10-11 Published : 2022-08-23

Keywords: fuzzy logic, scenario planning, Future Research, urban development management, earthquake vulnerability,

Abstract :

The research is applied in terms of purpose, explanatory in nature and combined method (qualitative-quantitative). The data collection method is library-documentary. The statistical population was formed by 124 experts and experts from the government agencies of the city of Tehran. Probability and stratified sampling method. The tool for collecting information is the questionnaire of the type of closed questions. For the future research of Tehran city management and to investigate the desired drivers, the criteria influencing the development management of Tehran city have been ranked using the TOPSIS model based on the experts' score. By examining these criteria, possible, probable and desirable scenarios have been developed. The aim of the current research is scenario planning and explanation of the development of urban management with an emphasis on earthquake vulnerability management with a future research approach using GIS. The indicators used for medical centers and hospitals were population density, open spaces, distance from the fault, road network. In the fuzzy inference zoning maps of AND operator, 1453.13, 499.17, 154.9, 35.11 hectares are located in very low, low, medium, high and very high risk areas, respectively. In the OR zoning model, 7.02 hectares are in the very low risk category, 35.11 hectares are in the low risk category, 358.19 hectares are in the medium risk zone, 1755.85 hectares are in the high risk zone, and 2156.18 are in the very high risk zone. The results of the research show that Among the evaluated criteria, the emphasis on the decentralized and integrated management structure with a score of (0.967) has taken the first place. Based on the future research method in Tehran city development management, three scenarios were formulated. The first scenario: change in the structural criteria of Tehran city management (integrated approach in urban planning and management). The second scenario: change in the functional criteria of Tehran city management. The third scenario: Governance is digital democracy. In this zoning, the most vulnerable areas are located in the northern part of the city.Therefore, in the zoning map resulting from the AND operator, more relief and relief centers will be needed in times of earthquakes. In the OR zoning model, 7.02 hectares are in the very low risk category, 35.11 hectares in the low risk category, 358.19 hectares in the medium risk zone, 1755.85 hectares in the high risk zone, and 2156.18 hectares in the very high risk zone. Therefore, the largest area in this zoning model is in the very low class, and this logic considers many areas without risk due to the convergence between criteria, and only a very small part of the center of the study area has been identified as having a high risk. And finally, the zoning model of the GAMA operator, respectively, 185.23, 557.92, 595.88, 643.62, 158.76 hectares were in the very low, low, medium, high, very high risk classes, and the medium risk class covered most of the study area. In this zoning, the most vulnerable areas are located in the northern part of the city.