Identification of Urban Resilience Propellants with Futuristic Approach of Baseline Scenario

Subject Areas : Urbanism

mir saeed moosavi ¹ , behnaz amin nayeri ² , ehsan davarpanah ³ , yaser khanmohammadi ⁴

1 - Department of Urban Planning, International Campus, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
2 - Department of Urban Planning, Aras International Branch, Islamic Azad university, Tabriz, Iran
3 - PhD student of Urban Planning, Aras International Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran.
4 - phd student in urban design,department of urbanism,Tabriz branch,idlamic azad,university,Tabriz,iran

Received: 2024-04-08 Accepted : 2024-09-14 Published : 2025-03-09

Keywords: Urban resilience, Futurology, Scenario planning, Sari City,

Abstract :

abstract:This paper examines the issue of resilience in urban development and planning, with a specific focus on the city of Sari. It highlights the challenges faced by Sari, such as its compact and densely populated structure, deteriorating fabric, and socio-economic disparities among residents. The research aims to identify the factors contributing to resilience in Sari through a scenario-based approach, utilizing surveys and interviews for data collection. The Delphi evaluation identified key influencing factors, including immigration and urbanization pressures, lack of awareness and absence of technical and executive mechanisms, instability of ecological resources, and physical exhaustion, as significant obstacles. Experts have identified dimensions of urban resilience in economic, social, institutional, and environmental categories and identified 20 primary variables impacting resilience in these dimensions. The economic indicator group selected five key variables: marginalization, migration, percentage of urbanization, income level, and employment rate. The Scenario Wizard software was used to propose 10 favorable and disastrous scenarios for enhancing future resilience. The research underscores the inadequate understanding of resilience and its relationship with urban planning goals in domestic research, emphasizing the need for more comprehensive studies in urban management and governance. It also highlights the challenges faced by urban management in Iran, leading to unresolved problems and wasted resources when dealing with crises. Overall, the text emphasizes the importance of understanding and addressing resilience in urban planning, especially in the face of challenges encountered by cities like Sari. It highlights the need for more comprehensive and strategic approaches to urban management and governance.

References:

- آراسته، مژگان، باغبان، امیر، باغبان، ساجده. (1399). شناسایی عوامل كلیدی مؤثر بر تاب آوری شهری با رویكرد آینده نگاری (مطالعۀ موردی: كلانشهر مشهد)، نشریه علمی – پژوهشی برنامهریزی توسعه کالبدی، 5(2)، 78-63.
- مبارکی، امید، لاله پور، منیژه و افضلی گروه، زهرا. (1396). ارزیابی و تحلیل ابعاد و مؤلفه های تاب آوری شهر کرمان، جغرافیا و توسعه،15(47)،104-89.
- نیکپور، عامر، یار احمدی، منصوره.(1400). شناسایی و تبیین پیشران های مؤثر در تاب آوری كالبدی (مطالعه موردی: نورآباد ممسنی(، نشریه علمی برنامهریزی توسعه کالبدی،6(1)، 98-85.

- Aghdasi, Asieh and Abbaspour, Majid, Ahmadi, Aida (2020). Identifying and prioritizing the risks of urban rail transportation networks with an emphasis on resilience (case example: Tehran Metro). health and hyginie. 1, 13 (1), pp. 110-122 (In Persian).
- Ajibade, I. (2017). Can a future city enhance urban resilience and sustainability? A political ecology analysis of Eko Atlantic city, Nigeria. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 26, 85-92.
- Akbary, M., Sayad, V. (2021). Analysis of climate change studies in Iran. Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 53(1), 37-74. (In Persian).
- Arjan Wardekker, A., Wilk, B., Brown, V., et al. (2020). A diagnostic tool for supporting policy making on urban resilience. Cities, 101, 102691.
- Banica, A., Rosu, L., Muntele, I., & Grozavu, A. (2017). Towards urban resilience: A multi-criteria analysis of seismic vulnerability in Iasi City (Romania). Sustainability, 9(2), 270. -(In Persian).
- Beilin, R., & Wilkinson, C. (2015). Introduction: Governing for urban resilience. Urban Studies, 52(7), 1205-1217.
- Borsekova, K., Nijkamp, P. & Guevara, P. (2018). Urban resilience patterns after an external shock: An exploratory study. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 31, 381-392.
- Cai, H., Lam, N. S., Qiang, Y., Zou, L., Correll, R. M., & Mihunov, V. (2018). A synthesis of disaster resilience measurement methods and indices. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 31, 844-855.
- Cariolet, J. M., Vuillet, M., & Diab, Y. (2019). Mapping urban resilience to disasters–A review. Sustainable cities and society, 51, 101746.
- Chand, A. (2018). Place Based Approach to plan for Resilient Cities: a local government perspective, Procedia Engineering 212, Pp. 157–164. www.sciencedirect.com.
- Chelleri, L., & Baravikova, A. (2021). Understandings of urban resilience meanings and principles across Europe. Cities, 108, 102985.
- Chelleri,L., Baravikova,A. (2020). Understandings of urban resilience meanings and principles across Europe. Cities,108. https://doi.org/1016/10/j.cities.102985/2020.
- Cimellaro, G. P. (2016). Urban Resilience for Emergency Response and Recovery, Fundamental Concepts and Applications. Springer International Publishing, Switzerland.
- Cloke, H. L., & Pappenberger, F. (2009). Ensemble flood forecasting: A review. Journal of hydrology, 375(3-4), 613-626.
- Cobbinah, P.B., Addaney, M. (Eds.), 2019. The Geography of Climate Change Adaptation in Urban Africa. Springer International Publishing.
- Donovan, B. & Work D. B. (2017). Empirically quantifying city-scale transportation system resilience to extreme events. Transportation Research, 79, 333–346.
- Fenga, X.,Xiu,CH., Bai,L., Zhong,Y., &Wei,Y.(2020). Comprehensive evaluation of urban resilience based on the perspective of landscape pattern: A case study of Shenyang city.104.
- Folke, C. (2006). Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social–ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change, 16(3), 253-267. doi:1016/10/j.gloenvcha.04/002/2006
- Gimenez, R., Hernantes, J. H. & Labaka, L. (2016). A maturity model for the involvement of stakeholders in the city resilience building process. Technological Forecasting & Social Change.
- Grabowski, Z. J., P. Zion Klos & Monfreda, Ch. (2018). Enhancing urban resilience knowledge systems through experiential pluralis. Environmental Science and Policy, 96, 70-76.
- Havko, J., Titko, M., Kováčová, J (2017). Vulnerability of the city infrastructure as a part of the resilient city concept. Procedia engineering, 192, 307-312.
- Hawley, R. J., Bledsoe, B. P., Stein, E. D., & Haines, B. E. (2012). Channel Evolution Model of Semiarid Stream Response to Urban‐Induced Hydromodification 1. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 48(4), 722-744.
- Heinzlef, C., Barroca, B., Leone, M., & Serre, D. (2022). Urban resilience operationalization issues in climate risk management: A review. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 75, 102974.
- Hogan, D. M., Jarnagin, S. T., Loperfido, J. V., & Van Ness, K. (2014). Mitigating the effects of landscape development on streams in urbanizing watersheds. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 50(1), 163-178.
- Iran Census Center (2016): "Population and Housing Census".
- Kutty, A. A., Kucukvar, M., Abdella, G. M., Bulak, M. E., & Onat, N. C. (2022). Sustainability performance of European smart cities: a novel DEA approach with double frontiers. Sustainable Cities and Society, 81, 103777.
- Lu, Peiwen; Stead, Dominic (2013). “Understanding the notion of resilience in spatial planning: A case study of Rotterdam, The Netherlands,” CITES, PP. 200-212.
- Marana, P., Labaka, L., & Mari S. J. (2017). A framework for public-private-people partnerships in the city resilience-building process. Safety Science.
- Mavhura, E., Manyangadze, T., & Aryal, K. R. (2021). A composite inherent resilience index for Zimbabwe: An adaptation of the disaster resilience of place model. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 57, 102152. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212420921001187
- Meerow, S., & Newell, J. P. (2019). Urban resilience for whom, what, when, where, and why? Urban Geography, 40(3), 309–329.
- Meerow, S., Newell, J. P. & Stults, M. (2016). Defining urban resilience: A review. Landscape and Urban Planning, 147, 38-49.
- Meerow, S., Newell, J. P., & Stults, M. (2016). Defining urban resilience: A review. Landscape and urban planning, 147, 38-49.
- Merilinen, E. (2020). The dual discourse of urban resilience: Robust city and self-organised neighborhoods. Disasters, 44(1), 125–151.
- Mitchell, T., & Harris, K. (2012). Resilience: A risk management approach. ODI background note, 1-7.
- Moaddab, R., & Amini Hosseini, K. (2022). Development of a model for evaluating system performance in resilience of historical-commercial fabrics (traditional bazaars) against earthquake- Case study: Tabriz historical bazaar. Bulletin of Earthquake Science and Engineering, (InPersian), -. doi: 10.48303/bese.2022.548668.1061
- Moaddab, R., & Amini Hosseini, K. (2022). Development of a model for evaluating system performance in resilience of historical-commercial fabrics (traditional bazaars) against earthquake- Case study: Tabriz historical bazaar. Bulletin of Earthquake Science and Engineering, (), -(In Persian). doi: 10.48303/bese.2022.548668.1061
- Moghim, S., & Garna, R. K. (2019). Countries' classification by environmental resilience. Journal of environmental management, 230, 345-354. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30293019/
- Mohamadi dehcheshme, M., & Shanbehpour, F. (2021). Spatial analysis of risks in critical infrastructures of Yasuj City. Scientific- Research Quarterly of Geographical Data (SEPEHR), 29(116), 167-180. . (In Persian).doi: 10.22131/sepehr.2021.242867
- Morelli, F., Benedetti, Y., Ibáñez-Álamo, J. D., Tryjanowski, P., Jokimäki, J., Kaisanlahti-Jokimäki, M. L., ... & Møller, A. P. (2020). Insurance for the future? Potential avian community resilience in cities across Europe. Climatic Change, 159, 195-214.
- Nikpour, A., lotfi, S., & Yarahmadi, M. (2021). Assessing the Resilience of the city of Noorabad mamassani against Natural disasters (Earthquake). Emergency Management, 10(1), 57-71. doi: 20.1001.1.23453915.1400.10.1.5.5 (In Persian).
- Norris, F. H., Sherrieb, K., & Pfefferbaum, B. (2011). Community resilience: concepts, assessment, and implications for. Resilience and mental health: Challenges across the lifespan, 162.
- parizadi, T., shaikholeslami, A., & karimi razakani, A. (2019). Analysis of the state of urban resilience against natural hazards (Case Study: Baqer-shahr City). , 10(37), 41-54. (In Persian).
- Parori Amirreza, Ziyari Karamatullah, Yazdani Saeed (2023). Analysis and evaluation of the dimensions of urban resilience in the face of floods (case study: Khorram River, Khorramab city). Geographical studies of mountainous regions. 4 (1), pp. 121-147. (In Persian).
- Patrick, B. C., Michael, P.B (2018). Towards resilient cities in Ghana: Urban planners’ perspective and strategies. Futures. 101, 55-66.
- Pickett, S. T., McGrath, B., Cadenasso, M. L., & Felson, A. J. (2014). Ecological resilience and resilient cities. Building Research & Information, 42(2), 143–157.
- Pizzo, B. (2015). Problematizing resilience: Implications for planning theory and practice. Cities, 43, 133–140.
- Rahnama, M. R., Ganbari, M., Mohammadi Hamidi, S., & Hosseini, S. M. (2019). Evaluation and measurement of livability in Ahvaz metropolis. Sustainable city, 2(2), 1-17. doi: 10.22034/jsc.2019.197229.1090 (In Persian).
- Ribeiro, P. J. G., Gonçalves, Pena Jardim, & L., A (2019). Urban resilience: A conceptual framework. Sustainable Cities and Society, 50.
- Ronald Mcgill. (2020). Urban resilience – An urban management perspective. Journal of Urban Management, 9, 372–381.
- Sharifi, A., & Yamagata, Y. (2018). Resilient urban form: A conceptual framework. Resilience-oriented urban planning (pp. 167–179). Cham: Springer.
- Sun, H., Zhen, F., & Xie, Z. (2021). Urban resilience assessment based on contradiction between supply and demand of the daily activity–environment system: A case study on Nanjing, China. Science of The Total Environment, 765, 144567.
- Sun, Y., Garrido-Baserba, M., Molinos-Senante, M., Donikian, N. A., Poch, M., & Rosso, D. (2020). A composite indicator approach to assess the sustainability and resilience of wastewater management alternatives. Science of The Total Environment, 725, 138286.
- Thomas Elmqvist, T., Erik Andersson, E., Niki Frantzeskaki, N., et al. (2019). Sustainability and resilience for transformation in the urban century. Nature Sustainability, 2, 267–273.
- UN Habitat (2022). World Cities Report 2022, Envisaging the Future of Cities. https://unhabitat.org/sites/default/files/2022/06/wcr_2022.pdf
- UN-Habitat. (2018). The State of Sri Lankan Cities 2018 report.
- United Nations, 2019. Climate Change. Accessible here: https://www.un.org/en/ sections/issues-depth/climate-change/.
- URBACT (2016). Urban Resilience: A concept for co-creating cities of the future. EU (European Regional Development Fund), 1-479.
- Zhan, D., et al,. (2018). Assessment and determinants of satisfaction with urban livability in China. Cities. https://doi.org/1016/10/j.cities.02/025/2018 .www.elsevier.com/locate/cities.
- Zhang, X., & Li, H. (2018). Urban resilience and urban sustainability: What we know and what do not know?. Cities, 72, 141-148.
- Zhang, X., & Li, H. (2019). Urban resilience and urban sustainability: What we know and what do not know? Cities, 72, 141–148.