Scenario planning of the future of Iran's power sports with a future research approach in the horizon of 2036

Subject Areas : International Journal of Finance, Accounting and Economics Studies

Mohhmadreza Moochani ¹ , Ali Zarei ² , Zahra Hajianzahaei ³

1 - Faculty of Physical Education and Sports Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran
2 - PhD. Candidate Curriculum Study, University of Tehran
3 - Sports Management, Islamic Azad University, Central Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran

Received: 2024-09-02 Accepted : 2024-11-12 Published : 2025-02-02

Keywords: Foresight, Zurkhaneh sports, Scenario planning, Cross-impact matrix,

Abstract :

Background: Foresight is widely used today. This term encompasses a wide range of approaches that improve the decision-making process, approaches that involve thinking about the long-term future.

 

Objective: The main goal of this research is to conduct a foresight study on Zurkhaneh sports by the horizon of 1415 (2036).

 

Methods: Two foresight methods, including structural analysis and scenario planning, were used to first identify the key uncertainties of Zurkhaneh sports in Iran and then develop future scenarios for this sport. The initial data for the research was collected through interviews with experts and a review of the literature and research background. This data was analyzed using expert questionnaires and the MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. The experts in this research included 23 professors and specialists in Zurkhaneh sports.

 

Findings: The results of the t-test showed that 25 factors out of the initial 75 factors have the highest impact and high uncertainty. These 25 important factors were placed in a 25*25 matrix, which was then completed by the experts and analyzed using software, identifying 7 factors as key factors.

 

Conclusion: In the desirable scenario, which shows the best situation, among the 7 factors, except for the factor of establishing ancient sports leagues at the provincial level, the other factors are desirable. If conditions are met, the strongest probable scenario for Zurkhaneh sports in the country by the horizon of 1415 (2036) is considered.

 

References:


Abdulahi, Z; Safania, A.M., Naqshbandi, S. and Bagharian-Farah-Abadi, M., (2024), future research of the future scenarios of equestrian sports in the horizon of 1410 with the approach of scenario writing, Scientific Quarterly of Applied Researches in Sports Management, 13(2) ), pp. 36-51.
Abdulmaleki, H., Heydari, F., Al-Hayari, M., Zakizadeh, B., 2016, the future of sports management research in the country's universities, Sports Management and Development Quarterly, No. 4, pp. 1-15.
Aghababaei, N. and Afshari M., (2023), Future research in Iran's sports economy (case study: sports events), Sports Management Journal, Volume 14, Number 2, pp. 99-116.
Ali Dost Qahfarkhi, A; Sajjadi, N. and Mahmoudi, A. (2013). Examining the priorities and strategies for the development of the country's judo championship, Sports Management Journal, Volume 6, Number 2, pp. 246-231.
Bawanpour, J., Nikrovan, M. and Yektayar, M. (2023), Future research of the key drivers of Iran's sports network governance in the horizon of 1414, Sports Management Journal, 15(3), pp. 333-351.
De Bosscher, V., Shibli, S., Westerbeek, H., & van Bottenburg, M. (2022) Convergence and Divergence of Elite Sport Policies: Is There a One-Size-Fits.
Farahani, Abolfazl; Keshavarz, Luqman and Sadeghi, Ali, (2015), Compilation of strategies for the development of championship sports in Iran, applied researches in sports management, volume 5, number 3, pp. 125-140.
Green, M. (2017). Olympic glory or grassroots development?. Sport policy priorities in Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom, 1960 2006. The international journal of the history of sport, 24 (7): 921- 953.
Hassanvand, A., Hassanvand, M. and Karimi, H. (2023), Researching the future of knowledge-based companies in the field of sports industry in Iran, the first Entrepreneurship Festival of Ithargaran, Tehran.
Hosseini, S.; Hamidi, M. and Rajabi, A. (2012), identifying the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of finding talent in the country's championship sports and examining the bottlenecks and challenges facing it, Sports Management, No. 17, pp. 29-54.
Khairgo, M. and Shukri, Z. (2017). Development of the policy-making process using the foresight strategy, Military Management Scientific Quarterly, Volume 11, Number 42, pp. 71-102.
Naser Abadi, Z. (2021), future research, Center for Strategic Planning and Studies, Defense Industries Educational and Research Institute, Tehran, pp. 10-10.
Nazari, Somia; Razavi, Mohammad Hossein, Amirnejad, Saeed, (2019), Scenarios of Iran's public sports in the horizon of 1412, Iran's Future Research Quarterly, 5th year, pp. 309-333.
Qara, M. A. (2013). The state of sports in Iran and its comparison with several different countries of the world, doctoral thesis, Tarbiat Moalem University, Tehran, Faculty of Physical Education and Sports Sciences.
Rashidalmir, A.; Dehghan Qahfarkhi, A and Tayibi, B (2017). Compilation of the strategic plan of the National Federation of Power Sports, Physiology and Sports Management Research, Volume 10, Number 3, pp. 139-155.
Shabani, A; Rezaei Sofi, M. and Farahani, A. (2014), Studying the challenges in the four sports sectors of the country (Delphi study), Contemporary Researches in Sports Management, Volume 4, Number 8, pp. 65-79.
Shaholi Koh-Shouri, J., Askari, A.R., Nazari, R. and Naqsh, A.R. (2020), Development scenarios of Iranian student sports, research in sports management and movement behavior, 11th year, number 21, pp. 186-208.
Slaughter, R. A ,(2019),New Thinking for a New Millennium.London: Routledge.
Sotiriadou . K, Shilbury .D , (2022(,Australian Elite Athlete Development: An Organisational Perspective,Sport Management Review 12(3):137-148
Vesey, T; Nikrovan, M., Foroghipour, H. and Yektayar, M. (2022), Future research of Iran's professional sports in the horizon of 1414 based on scenario, Knowledge Management in Sports, 14(3), pp.1-15;