Analysis and Foresight of AI Scenarios in Iran's Sports Industry
Subject Areas : Sport Sciences Quarterly
Shadi Rahbar Yaghoobi
1
(Ph. D. Student of Sports Management Department, Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University, Karaj, Iran )
Mahvash Noorbakhsh
2
(استاد گروه مدیریت ورزشی، واحد کرج، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرج، ایران)
Mehdi Kohandel
3
(Associate professor in department of spot management .karaj branch.islamic Azad university. Karaj .Iran )
سید نعمت خلیفه
4
(استادیار مدیریت ورزشی، دانشکده تربیت بدنی و علوم ورزشی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد کرج، کرج، ایران)
Keywords: Scenario-based planning, Technological Determinism, Creation of Surprise, Sports Industry, Artificial Intelligence,
Abstract :
This study analyzes and foresees AI scenarios in Iran's sports industry. The research is applied in nature and exploratory in nature, based on new methods of futures studies, and conducted using cross-impact analysis and scenario planning. The statistical population included relevant articles and experts in AI and the sports industry. Purposeful sampling was performed, including 18 studies and 18 experts selected based on specific criteria. Data collection tools included checklists, questionnaires, and 27×27 and 13×13 matrices. To evaluate the validity and reliability of the results, strategies such as credibility, confirmability, process audit studies, Delphi in two rounds, face validity, and split-half reliability coefficient were used. Content analysis was employed for literature review and expert opinions, followed by Delphi analysis, cross-impact analysis (structural analysis), and balance impact analysis (scenario writing). The results identified 27 key drivers, five of which (job transformation, investment, AI expansion scope, AI technology acceptance readiness, and infrastructure and equipment) shape the future of AI in sports. Two scenarios with high scores and higher probability of occurrence were identified: one with promising conditions (technological determinism) and the other with critical conditions (creation of surprise). The most credible scenario was technological determinism, indicating that the coexistence of the sports industry with AI facilitates the development of this industry.
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