Codification of Effective Scenarios for the Development of Informal Settlements in Ahvaz with Emphasis on the Application of Futures Studies

Subject Areas : Regional Planning

Nadia Daripour ¹ (Ph.D. Student of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.)
Mohammad ali Firouzi ² (Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran)
Majid Goudarzi ³ (Associate Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran)

Received: 2022-01-21 Accepted : 2022-03-08 Published : 2024-05-21

Keywords: informal settlements, Scenario, Future Studies, Wizard, Ahvaz City,

Abstract :

Following the accelerated urbanization process and its various consequences, housing and a few other things became one of the issues facing the city and urban management. Poverty, inequality, and the inability of some groups to provide adequate housing, and the shortcomings of the urban planning and management system in creating the necessary conditions for these groups to enjoy adequate housing have led to informal settlements. In order to gather information to gain the necessary theoretical insight and review the literature on the subject, documentary and library methods and 12389 blocks taken from the data of the Statistics Center of Iran in 2016 have been exerted. In addition, the method of structural interaction analysis has been exploited to investigate the extent and how the factors affect, and finally, to identify the key factors influencing the future status of urban low-income settlements. In scenario-based planning, attempts are made to discover ways to influence the future consequences of these choices by understanding the implications of today's choices. In order to work accurately at this stage, 30 experts (urban planning and urban management) and executives (in executive bodies, such as road and urban planning, municipality and management and planning) were considered, and finally, defined for 16 key factors, based on the scenario perspective.Using Wizard scenario software analysis, 2 strong scenarios, 7 believable scenarios, and 109 weak scenarios were extracted. Possible situations for the agent were different from other factors and their only common feature is the existence of a range of desirable and undesirable situations, some of which are divided into two and three situations according to the key conditions.
 
Extended Abstract
 
Introduction
Following the accelerated urbanization process and its various consequences, housing and a few other things became one of the issues facing the city and urban management. Poverty, inequality, and the inability of some groups to provide adequate housing, and the shortcomings of the urban planning and management system in creating the necessary conditions for these groups to enjoy adequate housing have led to informal settlements. This study aims to develop effective scenarios for the development of informal settlements in Ahvaz with an emphasis on the future use of research. The present research is descriptive-analytical in terms of type and theoretical-applied in terms of purpose.
 
Methodology
In order to gather information to gain the necessary theoretical insight and review the literature on the subject, documentary and library methods and 12389 blocks taken from the data of the Statistics Center of Iran in 2016 have been exerted. The method of environmental scanning (descriptive questionnaire, interview, and environmental survey) through 30 experts (in the fields of urban planning and urban management) and executors (in executive bodies, such as General Directorate of Roads and Urban Development, Municipality and Governorate) have been used to identify the most important factors affecting the future status of informal settlements in the city of Ahvaz. In addition, the method of structural interaction analysis has been exploited to investigate the extent and how the factors affect, and finally, to identify the key factors influencing the future status of urban low-income settlements. The most important drivers of future studies on the prospects of informal settlements in Ahvaz have been studied according to the current situation using scenario design in the Micmac software environment.
 
Results and Discussion
To evaluate the degree of reliability in the two dimensions of effectiveness and dependence in the first turn, it shows that the numbers assigned to them are equal to 100%, respectively, which indicates the high reliability of the questionnaire. The direct relationships between variables are an intertwined network of reciprocal relationships. Micmac software divides the indicators in the Cartesian coordinate system into four categories of influencing, two-dimensional, impressionable (regulatory), and independent factors. Finally, out of 44 factors selected by experts and specialists, 16 key factors were selected; covering the unemployed, creating opportunities for job expansion, quick-paying jobs, reducing the interest on loans to residents, land and housing value, microfinance, participation and solidarity, the existence of infrastructure networks (including water, electricity, gas, etc.), housing quality, tendency of children to education, supply of handicrafts and household products, level of health, sewage and waste disposal system, exemption of housing unit builders from tolls and tariffs, construction materials, access to the transportation system, absence of environmental pollutants and occupational security, which will play the most significant role in the future situation of informal settlements in Ahvaz. After identifying the most critical key factors, in order to determine the most important drivers affecting the status of informal settlements, various situations can be imagined that these possible situations are very important on the perspective and future of informal settlements in Ahvaz. For this reason, a detailed analysis of the situation ahead of the possible situations is necessary to formulate scenarios. The purpose of defining scenarios is not to choose only a preferred future and wish for it to come true or to find the most probable future and try to adapt to it, but to make strategic decisions that are wise enough for "all possible futures." In scenario-based planning, attempts are made to discover ways to influence the future consequences of these choices by understanding the implications of today's choices. In order to work accurately at this stage, 30 experts (urban planning and urban management) and executives (in executive bodies, such as road and urban planning, municipality and management and planning) were considered, and finally, defined for 16 key factors, based on the scenario perspective.
 
Conclusion
Using Wizard scenario software analysis, 2 strong scenarios, 7 believable scenarios, and 109 weak scenarios were extracted. Possible situations for the agent were different from other factors and their only common feature is the existence of a range of desirable and undesirable situations, some of which are divided into two and three situations according to the key conditions. In this step, the scenario wizard software was used, which is designed to perform complex scenario writing calculations. Given the size of the matrix and its dimensions of 11 × 11, the processor has analyzed the combined scenarios based on the entered data and reported the number of the following scenarios:1- Strong (probable) scenarios: 2 ones; 2- Believable scenarios (with high internal compatibility): 7 ones. First Scenario (optimistic state): In this scenario, key factors and driving forces emphasize the mobilization of all potential facilities, resources, and factors to create employment, housing, and improvement in the living conditions of poor communities. And it has allowed residents of informal settlements to improve their living and working conditions according to their priorities and needs. The second scenario (static state): The status of this scenario will help to continue the problems and issues in informal settlements according to the existing conditions and even its aggravation. These settlements have always been neglected due to illegality, poor environmental health, lack of educational spaces, and lack of access to a proper transportation system, etc. The third scenario (pessimistic state): In this scenario, the situation of improving informal settlements in the city of Ahvaz is declining. So that the expansion of these settlements is one of the most important threatening factors for citizens, it seems that among the prevailing views in informal settlements, this view has taken the attitude of destruction and coercion for these settlements. This policy has a disgusting attitude towards informal settlements and coercive action in dealing with this form of settlement. In this form, it is considered not to deal with informal settlement problems' root causes and take immediate measures. In this view, forced destruction and evacuation deprive the poor and deprived of the capital available in cities, including economic, social, and cultural capital, and never reduces poverty.
 
 

References:

1. Bogdan, S & Daniel Gabriel, V. (2013). Informal settlements and squatting in Romania: Socio-Spatial. Journal of Studies & Research in Human Geograghy, 7(2), 65-75


2. Bardi, R., Malekshahi, G.H., & Mohammadi, A. (2014). Assessing the role of informal settlements in the spatial rupture of urban structure, a case study: Gonbad Kavous. Quarterly Journal of Spatial Planning (Geography), Year Fourth, fourth issue, consecutive 15(5), 27 - 48 [In Persian].


3. Dadashpour, H., & Alizadeh, B. (2011). Informal settlement and security of land occupation. Azarakhsh Publications. 5 [In Persian].


4. Gilbert, A., & Joseph, G. (2005). Cities, Poverty and Development (Urbanization in the Third World). Translated by Parviz Karimi Naseri, Tehran, and Samat.


5. Garau, P. (2005). A Home in the city, Elliott D.Sclar-Gabriellay, Carolina Eearthscan.


6. Ghasemi Siani, M., & Haghi, M. (2016). Explaining the extent of urban poverty and identifying informal settlements from the perspective of spatial justice, a case study: Tehran city planning. Regional Planning Quarterly, 6(24), 245-256. [In Persian].


7. Haj Yousefi, A. (2003). The phenomenon of marginalization before the revolution. Collection of articles on marginalization and informal housing, No. 1, University of Medical Sciences and Rehabilitation, 206-177. [In Persian].


8. Irandoost, K., Azami, M., & Toulaei, R. (2014). Indicators for defining and determining informal settlements in Iran, urban and regional studies and researches of the sixth year, No. 21, 43-60. [In Persian].


9. Irandoost, K. (2010). Informal settlements and the myth of marginalization. Tehran Municipality Information and Communication Technology Organization Publications. [In Persian].


10. Kavousi, N., & Moradi, S. (2014). Empowerment as the Newest Strategy for Dealing with Informal Settlements, Case Study: Shatrabad Neighborhood, Kermanshah, and International Congress on Architectural Structure and Urban Development. [In Persian].


11. Khazaei, Z., & Ziviar, P. (2012). Study and evaluation of socio-economic and physical characteristics of informal settlements, a case study of Ahwaz metropolitan tourist dormitory. Sarzamin Geographical Quarterly, 9(33) [In Persian].


12. Khosh Dahan, A. (2009). Future Research with Scenario Making Technique. Tehran, Iran Industrial Training and Research Center. [In Persian].


13. Lloyd, P. (2014). The working class and the urban poor in the Third World. Translated by Hossein Ali Nozari, Tehran, Ashian Publishing.


14. Mohammadi, M. A., & Shams, M. (2017). An Analysis of Spatial-Physical Inequalities and Its Impact on Resident Satisfaction, Case Study: Informal Settlement in Hamadan (Valiasr Alley). Quarterly Journal of New Attitudes in Human Geography, Year Ten, First Issue, 109-124. [In Persian].


15. Movahed, A., Vali Nouri, S., Hatami Nejad, H., Zanganeh, A., & Kamanroudi Kojouri, M. (2016). Spatial analysis of urban poverty in the metropolis of Tabriz. Economics and Urban Management, fourth year, third issue, PP. 36-19. [In Persian].


16. Movahed, A., & Taghizadeh, A. (2009). Study of development orientations in the suburbs of Ahvaz using GIS and RS. Human Geography Research, No. 70, 15-28. [In Persian].


17. Mohammad Panahi, S. (2015). Study of the role of informal housing in the instability of urban development in Ilam. Master Thesis, West Higher Education Institute of Ilam.


18. Roumian, A., Rahimi, M., & Honari, F. (2011). Planning and foresight of sustainable tourism development in Khuzestan province. Regional Planning Quarterly. [In Persian].


19. Roustaei, Sh., Ahmadnejad, M., Asghari Zamani, A., Zanganeh, A.R., & Saeedi, Sh. (2015). Assessment of urban poverty in informal settlements in Kermanshah using a factor-analytical model Abad and Shater Abad. Journal of Geography and Planning, 19(35), 166-137. [In Persian].


20. Sheikhi, M., Ebrahimnia Samakoush, S., & Damadi, M. (2012). Study of housing indicators in informal settlements: a case study: East and West Katie neighborhood of Babol. Haftshahr Quarterly, 3(39), 1- 20. [In Persian].


21. Salehi Amiri, S.R., & Khodaei, Z. (2011). Marginalization and Informal Housing, Challenges and Consequences. Tehran, Qoms Publishing. [In Persian].


22. Sarrafi, M. (2003). Review of the characteristics of spontaneous housing in Iran, in search of empowerment strategies, in marginalization and informal housing,Proceedings of the University of Social Welfare Sciences, Volume II. 5 [In Persian].


23. Sadeghi, Y., Meshkini, A., & Amiri, M. (2011). Informal economy, poverty alleviation in informal settlements and sustainable development; passing on Requirements and Practices. the third conference on urban planning and management. [In Persian].


24. Tessa, G. (2016). Low-income Housing Provision in Mauritius: Improving Social Justice and Place Quality. Habitat International, No 53, 502-516.


25. Wokekoro, E., & Owei, O.B. (2014). An Assessment of Residential Quality of Life in Informal Settlrments in Port Harcourt Municipality, IOSR Journal Of Humanities And Social Scince (IOSR-JHSS), 19(3), 11-26: www.iosjournals.org


26. Zhang, L. (2011). The political economy of informal settlements in post-socialist China: The case of chengzhongcun(s), journal homepage: elsevier.com, 1-11.


27. Zangiabadi, A., & Mobaraki, O. (2012). Study of effective factors on the formation of suburbanization in Tabriz and its consequences, a case study: Ahmadabad, Beheshti and Khalilabad neighborhoods. Journal of Geography, Environmental Planning, Year 20 And Third, No. 5 [In Persian].45, pp. 80-67.