تدوین سناریوهای مؤثر گسترش سکونتگاه های غیر رسمی شهر اهواز با تأکید بر کاربرد آینده‌پژوهی
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
نادیا داری پور
1
(دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران)
محمد علی فیروزی
2
(استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران)
مجید گودرزی
3
(دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران)
کلید واژه: شهر اهواز, سکونتگاههای غیر رسمی, آینده‌پژوهی, سناریو, ویزارد,
چکیده مقاله :
به دنبال روند شتابان شهری شدن و پیامدهای مختلف آن، مسکن و چند و چون آن به یکی از مسائل فراروی شهر و مدیریت شهری بدل شد. فقر و نابرابری و ناتوانی گروه‌هایی از اجتماع در تأمین مسکن مناسب و کاستی‌های نظام برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت شهری در ایجاد زمینه‌های لازم جهت برخوردار شدن این گروه‌ها از مسکن مناسب باعث شکل‌گیری سکونتگاههای غیر رسمی گردید. هدف از این پژوهش تدوین سناریوهای مؤثر گسترش سکونتگاه های غیر رسمی شهر اهواز با تأکید بر کاربرد آینده‌پژوهی می‌باشد. تحقیق حاضر از نظر نوع توصیفی- تحلیلی و به لحاظ هدف نظری- کاربردی است. برای شناسایی مهم‌ترین عوامل مؤثر بر روند وضعیت آینده سکونتگاههای غیر رسمی در شهر اهواز، از روش پویش محیطی از طریق 30 نفر از گروه متخصصان، کارشناسان و مجریان استفاده شده است. جهت شناسایی مهم ترین عوامل تأثیر گذار از نرم افزار میک مک استفاده شده است. مهم‌ترین پیشران‌های تأثیر گذار آینده‌پژوهی بر چشم‌انداز سکونتگاههای غیر رسمی در شهر اهواز با توجه به وضع موجود با استفاده از سناریوپردازی در محیط نرم‌افزار Micmac مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. از میان 44 عامل منتخب توسط خبرگان و متخصصان، تعداد 16 عامل کلیدی انتخاب شدند. پس از شناسایی مهم‌ترین عوامل کلیدی، به منظور تعیین مهم‌ترین پیشران‌های مؤثر بر وضعیت سکونتگاههای غیر رسمی، وضعیت‌های مختلفی قابل تصور است که این وضعیت‌های احتمالی بر چشم‌انداز و آینده سکونتگاههای غیر رسمی در شهر اهواز بسیار حایز اهمیت است. با توجه به وسعت ماتریس و ابعاد آن به اندازه 11× 11، پردازنده سناریوهای ترکیبی را بر اساس داده‌های وارد شده، تحلیل و تعداد سناریوهای زیر را گزارش داده است: 1-سناریوهای قوی (محتمل): 2 سناریو 2-سناریوهای باور کردنی (با سازگاری زیاد درونی).
Following the accelerated urbanization process and its various consequences, housing and a few other things became one of the issues facing the city and urban management. Poverty, inequality, and the inability of some groups to provide adequate housing, and the shortcomings of the urban planning and management system in creating the necessary conditions for these groups to enjoy adequate housing have led to informal settlements. In order to gather information to gain the necessary theoretical insight and review the literature on the subject, documentary and library methods and 12389 blocks taken from the data of the Statistics Center of Iran in 2016 have been exerted. In addition, the method of structural interaction analysis has been exploited to investigate the extent and how the factors affect, and finally, to identify the key factors influencing the future status of urban low-income settlements. In scenario-based planning, attempts are made to discover ways to influence the future consequences of these choices by understanding the implications of today's choices. In order to work accurately at this stage, 30 experts (urban planning and urban management) and executives (in executive bodies, such as road and urban planning, municipality and management and planning) were considered, and finally, defined for 16 key factors, based on the scenario perspective.Using Wizard scenario software analysis, 2 strong scenarios, 7 believable scenarios, and 109 weak scenarios were extracted. Possible situations for the agent were different from other factors and their only common feature is the existence of a range of desirable and undesirable situations, some of which are divided into two and three situations according to the key conditions.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Following the accelerated urbanization process and its various consequences, housing and a few other things became one of the issues facing the city and urban management. Poverty, inequality, and the inability of some groups to provide adequate housing, and the shortcomings of the urban planning and management system in creating the necessary conditions for these groups to enjoy adequate housing have led to informal settlements. This study aims to develop effective scenarios for the development of informal settlements in Ahvaz with an emphasis on the future use of research. The present research is descriptive-analytical in terms of type and theoretical-applied in terms of purpose.
Methodology
In order to gather information to gain the necessary theoretical insight and review the literature on the subject, documentary and library methods and 12389 blocks taken from the data of the Statistics Center of Iran in 2016 have been exerted. The method of environmental scanning (descriptive questionnaire, interview, and environmental survey) through 30 experts (in the fields of urban planning and urban management) and executors (in executive bodies, such as General Directorate of Roads and Urban Development, Municipality and Governorate) have been used to identify the most important factors affecting the future status of informal settlements in the city of Ahvaz. In addition, the method of structural interaction analysis has been exploited to investigate the extent and how the factors affect, and finally, to identify the key factors influencing the future status of urban low-income settlements. The most important drivers of future studies on the prospects of informal settlements in Ahvaz have been studied according to the current situation using scenario design in the Micmac software environment.
Results and Discussion
To evaluate the degree of reliability in the two dimensions of effectiveness and dependence in the first turn, it shows that the numbers assigned to them are equal to 100%, respectively, which indicates the high reliability of the questionnaire. The direct relationships between variables are an intertwined network of reciprocal relationships. Micmac software divides the indicators in the Cartesian coordinate system into four categories of influencing, two-dimensional, impressionable (regulatory), and independent factors. Finally, out of 44 factors selected by experts and specialists, 16 key factors were selected; covering the unemployed, creating opportunities for job expansion, quick-paying jobs, reducing the interest on loans to residents, land and housing value, microfinance, participation and solidarity, the existence of infrastructure networks (including water, electricity, gas, etc.), housing quality, tendency of children to education, supply of handicrafts and household products, level of health, sewage and waste disposal system, exemption of housing unit builders from tolls and tariffs, construction materials, access to the transportation system, absence of environmental pollutants and occupational security, which will play the most significant role in the future situation of informal settlements in Ahvaz. After identifying the most critical key factors, in order to determine the most important drivers affecting the status of informal settlements, various situations can be imagined that these possible situations are very important on the perspective and future of informal settlements in Ahvaz. For this reason, a detailed analysis of the situation ahead of the possible situations is necessary to formulate scenarios. The purpose of defining scenarios is not to choose only a preferred future and wish for it to come true or to find the most probable future and try to adapt to it, but to make strategic decisions that are wise enough for "all possible futures." In scenario-based planning, attempts are made to discover ways to influence the future consequences of these choices by understanding the implications of today's choices. In order to work accurately at this stage, 30 experts (urban planning and urban management) and executives (in executive bodies, such as road and urban planning, municipality and management and planning) were considered, and finally, defined for 16 key factors, based on the scenario perspective.
Conclusion
Using Wizard scenario software analysis, 2 strong scenarios, 7 believable scenarios, and 109 weak scenarios were extracted. Possible situations for the agent were different from other factors and their only common feature is the existence of a range of desirable and undesirable situations, some of which are divided into two and three situations according to the key conditions. In this step, the scenario wizard software was used, which is designed to perform complex scenario writing calculations. Given the size of the matrix and its dimensions of 11 × 11, the processor has analyzed the combined scenarios based on the entered data and reported the number of the following scenarios:1- Strong (probable) scenarios: 2 ones; 2- Believable scenarios (with high internal compatibility): 7 ones. First Scenario (optimistic state): In this scenario, key factors and driving forces emphasize the mobilization of all potential facilities, resources, and factors to create employment, housing, and improvement in the living conditions of poor communities. And it has allowed residents of informal settlements to improve their living and working conditions according to their priorities and needs. The second scenario (static state): The status of this scenario will help to continue the problems and issues in informal settlements according to the existing conditions and even its aggravation. These settlements have always been neglected due to illegality, poor environmental health, lack of educational spaces, and lack of access to a proper transportation system, etc. The third scenario (pessimistic state): In this scenario, the situation of improving informal settlements in the city of Ahvaz is declining. So that the expansion of these settlements is one of the most important threatening factors for citizens, it seems that among the prevailing views in informal settlements, this view has taken the attitude of destruction and coercion for these settlements. This policy has a disgusting attitude towards informal settlements and coercive action in dealing with this form of settlement. In this form, it is considered not to deal with informal settlement problems' root causes and take immediate measures. In this view, forced destruction and evacuation deprive the poor and deprived of the capital available in cities, including economic, social, and cultural capital, and never reduces poverty.
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