Identify Plausible Scenarios Textile Industry
Subject Areas : FuturologyAmirhussain Hassan-nejad 1 , Mohammadhassan Maleki 2
1 - Master of Industrial Management - Islamic Azad University of Arak (Corresponding Author)
2 - PhD in Industrial Management - University of Qom
Keywords: Textile Industry, Futures study, Scenario,
Abstract :
This study was conducted to determine the future of textile industry of Qom. This is an applied and a survey research of descriptive groups, in terms of objective and data collection method, respectively. The statistical population is from textile industry experts and snowball sampling method was used to make a sample. Questionnaire was applied to collect the data. Scenario analysis method was employed to analyze the data for this study. To develop plausible scenarios, the techniques of crisis uncertainty would be used. The nature of the questions is considered based on the uncertainties in the field of textile industry in the country that have two limit states and there is uncertainty on the occurrence of one of these two. In order to analyze the questionnaires and use the results in writing scenarios, 3 indicators of specialty, consensus and significance were used. According to the indicators of consensus and the significance, two states of the "purchasing power by people" and "trade liberalization and the removal of tariffs" were selected. Due to both of uncertainties, four scenarios were developed, including textile of smiling, hope to grow, multi-stratified cemetery and window of life.
