Determining Policy Priorities to Reduce Traffic Deaths Based on Scenario Building in 1404

Subject Areas : Futurology

M. Majid Fouladgar ¹ , Mohsen Bahrami ²

1 - PhD. Student in Technology Foresight, Technology Foresight Group, Department of Management, Science and Technology, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
2 - Technology Foresight Group, Department of Management, Science and Technology, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran (Corresponding author) [e-mail]

Received: 2017-05-31 Accepted : 2017-08-29 Published : 2017-07-23

Keywords: Technology Policies, Scenario, Analyze the effects of interac,

Abstract :

The purpose of this paper is to determine policy priorities in order to reduce traffic deaths in a 10-year vision by concerning traffic deaths scenarios. In this regard, the methods of foresight are used to make policy intelligently and effectively. Therefore in the first step, the historical process is achieved by literature review and interviews with experts. Then, by futures studies methods, factors affecting the traffic deaths issue  based on expert opinion has been recognized by using the Joseph Voros model in three levels of events and trends, structures and worldview, and then classified and categorized by cross impact analysis (CIA) method. The outputs of this method are the driving factors, political factors and indicators that policy making and evaluation will be provided by these possible scenarios. The scenario building with three main uncertainties in three levels including the value and discourses, rules and economic conditions, led to the formation of eight main scenario space that among these scenarios, 4 plausible scenarios were selected based on the expert opinions. Then, policies to reduce traffic deaths were formulated based on experts' opinions  and according to the overall health policies and Hadun matrix, and were examined by selected scenarios. Assessment process was performed by taking into account three main criteria of social justice, financial constraints and priority of prevention over treatment and finally, the policy of education and cultural policies (first priority), strengthening the punitive laws (second priority) and increasing the police surveillance and control with maximum participation of citizenship (third priority) were selected as sustainable policies to reduce traffic death.