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Open Access Article
1 - Statistical analysis of the SPI index and discharge potential of the Khansar Sarcheshmeh springs
Babak Ebrahimi Mehrdad Pasandi Haniye NilforoushanPlanning the cultivation pattern and water rights allocation in the irrigated lands by the Khansar Sarcheshmeh springs requires knowledge of the discharge of the springs, estimated based on the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) in this research. The relationship betwee MorePlanning the cultivation pattern and water rights allocation in the irrigated lands by the Khansar Sarcheshmeh springs requires knowledge of the discharge of the springs, estimated based on the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) in this research. The relationship between the SPI index, precipitation, and discharges of Khansar Sarchesmeh springs has been evaluated over three different periods to estimate the groundwater resources and inflow to the streams. In a year with normal or near-normal climatic conditions and average annual rainfall between 295 to 494 mm, the average annual discharge of Sarcheshmeh springs is expected to be between 12.8 and 24.3 million cubic meters (average of 18.1 million cubic meters) with 67.5% probability and a frequency of 1.5 years based on the extreme value distribution. For a year with average dry climatic conditions (270 mm average annual rainfall), the predicted average annual discharge of Sarcheshmeh springs is 11.9 million cubic meters with a 9% probability and a frequency of 11 years. In extremely dry climatic years (with an occurrence frequency of 28 years), the discharge of Sarcheshmeh springs is expected to decrease to less than 10.1 million cubic meters per year. In normal and close to normal conditions, with average rainfall in the range of 236 to 326 mm in the first six months, the average annual (water year) discharge of Sarcheshmeh springs is expected to be 18.5 million cubic meters (ranging from 15.3 to 21.8 million cubic meters with a 67.5% probability based on the extreme value distribution). According to the results of this research, rainfall of less than 168 mm occurred in the first half of the water year is a warning of the occurrence of a moderate to extremely dry drought with an annual discharge of less than 11.6 million cubic meters that can be distributed in the streams. Precipitations of more than 394 mm during the first half of the water year also indicate the likelihood of a moderate to extremely wet year, with an annual rainfall of more than 28 million cubic meters. Results of the research indicate that less than 168 mm of rainfall in the first half of the water year signals the potential for a moderate to extremely dry drought, with an annual discharge of less than 11.6 million cubic meters that can be distributed in the streams, while more than 394 mm of precipitation during the same period suggests the possibility of a moderate to extremely wet year with an annual rainfall of more than 28 million cubic meters. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - Imamate and Genealogical Legitimacy: Imāmīyyah, Zaidīyyah and Mu'tazilah Controversy
Mohammad AhmadimaneshThe following article is a continuation of another article about genealogical legitimacy and its effect on the theory of Imamate. While in the previous article, the inconsistencies between the pre-Islamic genealogical culture of the Arabs and the issue of the tran MoreThe following article is a continuation of another article about genealogical legitimacy and its effect on the theory of Imamate. While in the previous article, the inconsistencies between the pre-Islamic genealogical culture of the Arabs and the issue of the transfer of the Imamate of Ali and his descendants were investigated, in this article, the difference between the Imāmīyyah and the Zaidīyyah in the genealogical explanation of the Imamate in the period of the third to fifth century A.H. will be analyzed. It shows that those two groups, in an attempt to explain the chain of imams with a coherent theory, put forward different understandings of the genealogical legitimacy, and based on it, when interpreting the important texts of the Ḥadith of Ṯhaqlayn and the verse of Taṭhīr, as well as the story of Mubāhilah, presented various definitions of the genealogical terms Ahl al-Bayt and 'Itrat". Regarding the mixing of Mu'tazila with Shiites and their participation in these discussions, the opinion of Qāzī 'Abdul Jabbār Mu'tazilī has also been examined. Finally, it can be said that while in the general attitude of Zaidīyyah, the mechanism of inheritance was accepted based on the concept of Zurrīyyah as the basis of genealogical legitimacy, Imāmīyyah In order to explain the chain of imams, which usually but not always followed the paternal mechanism, also use the criteria of virtue and Naṣṣ. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Shiite Imamate and Genealogical Legitimacy: An External Perspective
mohammad ahmadimaneshThe Umayyads, as a ruling dynasty had a great impact on the history of the East and West of the Islamic world. Despite the existence of many sources about the lives of the famous people of this family, their lineage has received less attention. The main question is abou MoreThe Umayyads, as a ruling dynasty had a great impact on the history of the East and West of the Islamic world. Despite the existence of many sources about the lives of the famous people of this family, their lineage has received less attention. The main question is about the validity of the reports related to the authenticity or non-authenticity of their attribution to the Quraysh. Although the power and influence of the Umayyads was a great obstacle to mentioning things contrary to their well-known lineage in the sources of the first history of Islam, some Shiite scholars and historians claim that they have valid reasons and sources for rejecting this attribution. Nevertheless, the views of those in favor of their relationship with the Quraysh are more widely accepted in historical perspective. In this study, while quoting the reasons for and against this attribution, their arguments have been examined and analyzed by descriptive-explanatory method. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Genealogy and the Strategies of the Innovation Discourse in Islamic Law
Hossein jalaliThe effects of widespread social changes in private and social lives of human beings made it more and more necessary to reform the laws in accordance with these changes. These reforms are presented in the form of innovation discourse in Islamic law. Accordingly, the pre MoreThe effects of widespread social changes in private and social lives of human beings made it more and more necessary to reform the laws in accordance with these changes. These reforms are presented in the form of innovation discourse in Islamic law. Accordingly, the present research was carried out for genealogy and to present the strategies of the innovation discourse in Islamic law by Laclau and Mouffe's discourse theory. The research results showed that the innovation discourse in Islamic law dismisses some signifiers of both philosophical and theological discourses and legal discourse in modernity, breaks down their structure, and uses some of their signifiers in a new structure. The signifiers of this discourse, simultaneous attention to the changing and fixed areas of law, promotion of attraction and effectiveness of law, the requirements of national and international society, the priority of subject scholarship to discovering the sentence, innovation while preserving the bases of Islamic law, and considering rational, consensual, and traditional sources are pivotal factors alongside text. A search in genealogy of different Islamic sciences including speech, principles, and the philosophy of jurisprudence proves them to be some abundant capital which in turn shows the necessity of paying attention to time and place conditions and legal innovations. Genealogical stages, understanding the environment with respect to the economy of power, passing through obstacles and challenges, paying attention to innovation sources, preparation, putting sources together, developing an efficient law, performance, the feedback of ... Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - بهرهگیری از روشهای رگرسیونمبنا در تعیین پارامترهای اکوهیدرولوژیک تاجپوشش توده پیسهآ کلاردشت
پریسا عباسیان پدرام عطارد* سید محمد معین صادقی ویلما بایرام زاده -
Open Access Article
6 - Deconstruction of the disability discourse in Iranian urban society
farzad mohamadipoor سروش فتحی طهمورث shBy representing disability in the written works of post-Islamic Iranian thinkers, the present study seeks to understand the situation of ignoring the disabled, and analyzes these changes by confronting the old and new discourses and exiting the dominant space in the fie MoreBy representing disability in the written works of post-Islamic Iranian thinkers, the present study seeks to understand the situation of ignoring the disabled, and analyzes these changes by confronting the old and new discourses and exiting the dominant space in the field of texts related to disability.which has been done with a qualitative approach or the focus group method among the physically disabled people of Isfahan urban society, in terms of methodology. It has beenalso by the help of Foucault's archeology and genealogy, and given the historical nature of the subject, the method of data collection is documentary and library analysis, and a text-based historical methodin particular.The works were divided into three categories: moral, educational, folk or folk works.The findings show that the negative attitude of the society towards the disabled, the incompatibility of physical facilities, supportive institutions, intra-group support, lack of social trust and the feeling of social deprivationisolates a large part of the disabled, and the discourse must change in the urban society. There have been two discussions in this regard: Some believe that independence of people with disabilities should be recognized, and this requires elimination of negative associations with the title of disabled.Another group believes that changing the name does not actually affect people's real lives.The right approach is to change people's thoughts and opinions about a social group - as the disabled here - and social change will not happen with changein names. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - The archeology of knowledge and discourse as an introduction to Foucault's theory
Seyed Vahid Aghili Amir Lotfi Haghighat -
Open Access Article
8 - Thermodynamic and Synoptic Analysis of exceptional rains of spring and role of cloud height in occurrence of rains in Shiraz
مهدی نارنگی فرد کمال امیدوار مهدی محمودآبادی مجتبی فخاری واحدMechanism, spring rains, mainly due to convective processes, the occurrence of rains and other climatic phenomena, such as the phenomenon as cut-off low provides conditions for heavy precipitation events. In this research first heavy rains of spring (rains of 30 mm with MoreMechanism, spring rains, mainly due to convective processes, the occurrence of rains and other climatic phenomena, such as the phenomenon as cut-off low provides conditions for heavy precipitation events. In this research first heavy rains of spring (rains of 30 mm with the highest total precipitation in the period 1335-1391) studied the city and two of the strongest of them were identified. To analyze these rains, we investigate instability indexes and sea level pressure, 500 hPa, Uwind, Vwind, omega and data of cloud height. The result show that main factor of heavy rains in the region is trough of east Mediterranean in the middle troposphere cut-off low phenomenon is well established, Therefore in both cases west instability systems change their ways to lower latitude so that the west systems get high level of humidity from southern warm water and make heavy rains in the region is significant. Also results instability indexes show that there is instability probability, the amount Omega negative and positive vorticity show severe Ascending movement in time is the occurrence of precipitation; but with investigation relation within thickness of cloud and heavy rains show thickness of clouds have increased. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - Temporal-Spatial Analysis of Rainfall Days Frequency Trend of Western Iran Regions
شهاب شفیعی غلامعلی مظفریPrecipitation including climatic elements in the dimension of time and space changes a lot. In the study of extreme precipitation because of the devastating effect it is of great importance. The aim of this study is to identify and analyze theslope of the western region MorePrecipitation including climatic elements in the dimension of time and space changes a lot. In the study of extreme precipitation because of the devastating effect it is of great importance. The aim of this study is to identify and analyze theslope of the western regions of extreme precipitation, which is to achieve this goalprecipitation data of 69 synoptic stations and climate (province of Kerman, Kermanshah, Hamedan, Ilam, Lorestan and Kurdistan), in during the statistical period (2010-1961) were used and the annual threshold of extreme precipitation West generalized method of distributing a limit to the western regions of the country to 22 mm respectively. The extreme precipitation for each month during the period under study western regions using Mann-Kendall method identified and analyzed. and in December this increase was observed in the western half of Kermanshah province and in February this positive trend observed in the northwestern province of Kurdistan conceptual framework, these areas are consistent with the Zagros mountains. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - Assessing the heavy spring rains and the earth outgoing long wave radiation, Case Study: North West of precipitation 15 April 2016
ali ghaffari محمد سلیقه محمدحسین ناصرزادهThe purpose of this study is assessing the spring precipitation and outgoing long wave radiation using Reviews Climate maps at different levels of the atmosphere, surface and Earth mapping reflecting long-wavelength radiation. For these data synoptic stations of the Nor MoreThe purpose of this study is assessing the spring precipitation and outgoing long wave radiation using Reviews Climate maps at different levels of the atmosphere, surface and Earth mapping reflecting long-wavelength radiation. For these data synoptic stations of the North West (15 April 2016) was obtained from the meteorological. The data from the induction by NCEP-resolution grid of horizontal 5 degrees of length and width of geographic and through the application Grads, maps of sea level, the 500 hpa daily, Vorticity 700 hpa, map convergence and divergence flow of moisture , long wavelength reflectance map of the earth's surface, atmosphere and map omega vertical advection map queries. Reviews maps indicate that the main cause of precipitation North West of Iran on 26 April, entry system, the rainfall from Eastern Europe and accompanying Western air mass with this system, and the effect of convection locally in the morning because of high levels of outgoing long wave earth is very minimal, but in the afternoon the existence of the local convection has intensified and the highest precipitation occurred in the study Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - Investigation and identification of synoptic patterns of pervasive and destructive floods in Iran
Ali Hanafi Vali AsfandyarIran has different rainfall conditions due to special geographical conditions and location, so that despite having a rainfall equal to one third of the global average rainfall, there is a sharp fluctuation in the rainfall regime. The purpose of this study is to investig MoreIran has different rainfall conditions due to special geographical conditions and location, so that despite having a rainfall equal to one third of the global average rainfall, there is a sharp fluctuation in the rainfall regime. The purpose of this study is to investigate and identify the synoptic patterns of flood and destructive precipitation moles in the period 24 to 27 March 2019. For this purpose, daily precipitation data for 100 synoptic stations in the country that had significant rainfall during this period were obtained and analyzed from the Meteorological Organization. A level of 850 hPa was obtained from the site of the US National Center for Atmospheric and its maps were prepared and analyzed using Grads software. The results of the analysis of synoptic maps showed that in the study period, except for the northwestern region of Iran, the rest of the country was affected by a low pressure system of Mediterranean origin. The stretching of the Siberian high-pressure tongue on the Caspian Sea and the north of the country has created a pressure pattern on the border between the two air masses and has prevented it from spreading to the northwest. Also, the passage of this system over the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman and the proper moisture supply by them, has greatly increased its instabilities. The intensity of rainfall in some stations has been such that the total rainfall of this period has been half the average annual rainfall of that station. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - Analysis and forecasting of precipitation in the Larestan area by Markov chain.
بهلول Alijani زین العابدین Jafarpoor حیدر GhaderiIn order to analyze the precipitation of the Larestan area, the rain days with 0.1millimeter or more were obtained from the Iranian Meteorological Organization for the1960-2003 period. First the rainy periods with different lengths were identified andtheir monthly and s MoreIn order to analyze the precipitation of the Larestan area, the rain days with 0.1millimeter or more were obtained from the Iranian Meteorological Organization for the1960-2003 period. First the rainy periods with different lengths were identified andtheir monthly and seasonal frequencies were calculated. On the monthly basis Januaryhad the highest wet days frequency and winter was the wettest but the spring was thedriest season. The wettest year had 44 rain days while only 11 days were experiencedduring the dry year. The mean daily density of rain was 8.2 mm and the mean timeinterval between successive rainy periods was 6.2 days. On the average the rainyperiod begins each year on 8 of December and ends on 6 of April.The first order Markov chain was applied to the data series to forecast the wetperiods. The model responded well and was able to forecast significantly andprecisely. The model was fitted best for the runs of one to six days proving thehypothesis of the study. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
13 - Synoptic Analysis of the Nature of Sudan Low Pressure Systems (Case Study: December 2001 Storm)
عباس Mofidi آذر ZarrinIn order to investigate some synoptic aspects of Sudan low systems such asupper and lower level tropospheric circulation pattern and moisture source and theiradvection way, the synoptic pattern on the occurrence time of December 2001 stormover Iran has been noticed. The MoreIn order to investigate some synoptic aspects of Sudan low systems such asupper and lower level tropospheric circulation pattern and moisture source and theiradvection way, the synoptic pattern on the occurrence time of December 2001 stormover Iran has been noticed. Therefore the maps of surface, 500, 200, 50hpa levelsbefore and after storm were studied. In order to understand the situation of subtropicaljet stream and how it strengthens, maps of zonal wind component and velocitypotential (x) of 200hpa level have investigated. Also, satellite images of cloud form ofstorm have been studied.The results showed that although like previous studies, there was low cycle indexand existence of a ridge in mid-troposphere over the west Mediterranean and a deeptrough over the east Mediterranean had important role on the formation and evolutionof Sudan low; but the main role belonged to the stretching of polar vortex in lowerstratosphere as the main source of vorticity for abnormal circulation and strengtheningof Hadley cell and Subtropical jet stream over Mediterranean and north of Africa.The results indicated that the suitable position of Subtropical jet stream core overMiddle East associated with the settlement and strengthening of a ridge in middle andlower troposphere over the Arabian Sea are necessary for the evolution and developingof Sudan lows.However, the position and speed of subtropical jet stream core over the MiddleEast and it’s axis direction in the upper troposphere control both the mid-troposphericcirculation pattern and the tracks of incoming Sudan lows to Iran.The consequences indicated that settlements and strengthening of ridge/high over theArabian Sea, while making a set positive feedback and subsequently intensify Hadleycell and strengthening subtropical jet stream over Red Sea region, lend to directtransportation of moisture from the Arabian Sea into Sudan lows.Moreover, it was found that the main sources of moisture of Sudan systems aretropical Eastern Africa and southwest sector of Arabian Sea which strengthening whenthey pass over the Read Sea and Persian Gulf. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - Comparison of pyroclastic units (pumice & lahar) in mallar and reyneh valleys at Damavand volcano
Amirhoushang Shirazi Manuchehr FarajzadehMain objective of this research is comparison between pyroclastic of Malar and Raynah valleys in Yakhar basin in south-east of Damavand volcano. studing of pyroclastic is very important in recognition of Dmavand volcano.this research is based on descriptive &ndash MoreMain objective of this research is comparison between pyroclastic of Malar and Raynah valleys in Yakhar basin in south-east of Damavand volcano. studing of pyroclastic is very important in recognition of Dmavand volcano.this research is based on descriptive – analytical and using Rayneh Topographic map and Geological map of Damavand, G.P.S AND G.I.S Software.A characteristic of the Reyneh deposite is that clasts below 10 cm are mostly light grey and vescular when broken open, while most larger clasts are dark grey to black.Mallar deposite is whiter than Ryneh pumice most of mallar pumices are fall but most of reyenah pumices are flow. .volume of lahar is more in reyenah. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - Estimating Flood potential of Zilaki and Firehrud drainage basins by emphasize on Geomorphologic characters by using SCS method
Mohammad reza Sarvati Ardavan BehzadFlood is amongphenomenon which bring about considerable damage each year.This has been attractedgreatly by hydrologists. The factors such as physiography,geomorphology and human factors can accelerate this phenomenon in basins. Forusing water source, flood management, d MoreFlood is amongphenomenon which bring about considerable damage each year.This has been attractedgreatly by hydrologists. The factors such as physiography,geomorphology and human factors can accelerate this phenomenon in basins. Forusing water source, flood management, damming, watershed management and themost basic hydrologic studies, peak discharge is important, so accuracy of studies andthe safeties’ level of the hydraulic structures and establishments are independent to it.In this research potential flood Zilaki and Firehrud drainage basins were studied byusing of SCS method and finally were compared together. So BasinHydrographdimensions calculated by using of 24 hour rainfall, time of concentration, CurveNumber, rainfall excess, time to peak and peak discharge.Then was designHydrograph for basins in 2,5,10,25,50,100 period time Results show, because ofphysiography of Firehrud basin, It has more ability for making flood than Zilaki basin. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
16 - Heavy rain of southern Khorasan
Mohammad Golkar Hossein MohammadiInvestigating the statistical and synoptical condition of a climate of an area requires statisticsthat have accrued daily and really. Some of frequency occurrence of phenomena on should betaken on to consideration. Maybe, in near past, the condition of upper atmosphere MoreInvestigating the statistical and synoptical condition of a climate of an area requires statisticsthat have accrued daily and really. Some of frequency occurrence of phenomena on should betaken on to consideration. Maybe, in near past, the condition of upper atmosphere was notconsidered and only the surface conditions wave analysed statistically. But today investigatorscan study atmospherically phenomenon in global earth and systematically and identity theclimate pattern with applying various technics and specialized software and remote sensing.Rains is considered to be the most Irregular climate element of sub arid areas. Specially, theunique condition of its case and also heavy rain that usually leads to flood, should be studiedand regarded in environmental programming. Investigating the condition of raining, inparticular heavy rain in southern Khorasan, making use of statistical and synoptically patternsalong with surface map and 500 hp surface in cooperation is a feature of this research Hope,in future, these kinds of practical research by researches in this field. Becomes of more notice. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
17 - The Role of Pressure Patterns on the Precipitation of the South Coast of Caspian Sea
بهلول Alijani حسین Mohammadi آتوسا BigdeliIn order to understand the role of pressure systems on the precipitation of the Caspian coastal lands, daily precipitation data of the weather stations of the area were obtained from the Meteorological Organization of Islamic Republic of Iran for the period 1986-2003. U MoreIn order to understand the role of pressure systems on the precipitation of the Caspian coastal lands, daily precipitation data of the weather stations of the area were obtained from the Meteorological Organization of Islamic Republic of Iran for the period 1986-2003. Using Cluster Analysis the study area was divided into three distinct regions on the basis station’s precipitation variables. In each region the daily rainfall runs of 2 days length and more were determined. For each rain run a representative run was selected. For each of these selected runs the weather maps of surface and 500 hPa levels were analyzed. On the basis of this analysis the main and dominant pressure patterns of the rain days were defined. The results of the study showed that the western migratory high pressure systems are the main cause of the coastal areas precipitation. This study did not find any significant role for the ever accepted Siberian High pressure in the area’s precipitation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
18 - Study of Arctic Oscillation Effect on Temperature and Precipitation Fluctuations at Winter in Central Iran
K. Omidvar M. JafarinadoshanAim of this research is to predict the fluctuations of winter (December-March) temperature and precipitation in central Iran using Tele-connection patterns. The applied data is included the Arctic Oscillation index and daily temperature (minimum , maximum and average) a MoreAim of this research is to predict the fluctuations of winter (December-March) temperature and precipitation in central Iran using Tele-connection patterns. The applied data is included the Arctic Oscillation index and daily temperature (minimum , maximum and average) and precipitation values during 45 years ( 1965-2010) in 9 stations in central Iran. After averaging the data, seasonal time series was made separately for each variable. The results of the correlation test revealed that winter temperature is decreased in central Iran in positive phase of Arctic Oscillation. Also, it was cleared that AO variations in autumn justify 25% of winter temperature variations in the under studying zone. Because of lack of significant correlation coefficients in the most under studying stations, we can conclude that there is not any relationship between Arctic Oscillation and winter precipitation in central Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
19 - The Clarification of Monthly Precipitation Fluctuations in Ahar Station in relation to the Tele-connection Patterns
Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust Yousef Ghavidel RahimiAuthors have studied the precipitation fluctuations and rainfall changes inAhar synoptic station in this paper, applying long term monthly records for the47 year period (1960-2006). Results of using Man-Kendal test indicatesignificant correlation between precipitation c MoreAuthors have studied the precipitation fluctuations and rainfall changes inAhar synoptic station in this paper, applying long term monthly records for the47 year period (1960-2006). Results of using Man-Kendal test indicatesignificant correlation between precipitation changes and tele-connectionpatterns in the study area. With regard to this matter, the relationship of autumnprecipitation with El-Nino atmospheric-oceanic pattern (so-called ENSO) duringwarm phase increases precipitation and the same linkages with La-Nina duringcold phases enhances droughts. The correlation of winter precipitation with teleconnectionpatterns of Northern Atlantic and Arctic Ocean has been alsosignificant in such a way that during the North Atlantic negative phases themagnitude of incoming cyclones to the area creates higher rates and on the otherhand, in positive phase causes a decrease in precipitation due to the dominanceof Azure Anticyclone. Testing of Standardized Precipitation Indexes (SPI) forevaluating monthly wet and dry periods also indicates that the occasionaloccurrence of drought periods in the area is irreversible. The independence ofmonthly wet and dry periods is also one of the main results of this study. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
20 - Study of the Likelihood of Climate change in Kerman Province Using Man – Kendall Method (Case Study: Kerman Station)
بتول BahakClimate change is one of the major challenges faced by man in the current age. Phenomena such as precipitation changes, global warmness, melting of polar ices, flood, unexpected and severe coldness and warmness in most parts of the world are so severe, damaging and stre MoreClimate change is one of the major challenges faced by man in the current age. Phenomena such as precipitation changes, global warmness, melting of polar ices, flood, unexpected and severe coldness and warmness in most parts of the world are so severe, damaging and stressful that have resulted in climate change to be at the top of the studies of climatic sciences researchers and extensive international, regional and local studies have already addressed that. In order to review the possibility of climate change in Kerman Province, precipitation average, minimum, average and maximum temperatures of synoptic station in Kerman during 1956-2005 were received from the website of meteorology organization and was adjusted in terms of time series and was then studied by using Man – Kendall test. In this research, type and time of changes in the aforesaid elements were identified by using the above model. The results obtained from the analyses indicate that commencement time of most changes is sudden and of both trend and fluctuation types. precipitation changes in warm months is considerable while minimum, average and maximum temperatures in April, November and December were more considerable. No significant changes are observed in other months. On the whole, precipitation in the station during the period of study decreased and average, minimum and maximum temperatures increased. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
21 - Synoptic analysis of heavy rainfall in November 21, 2011 in Kohkilooyeh and BoyerAhmad (Likak)
Majid Montazeri Mohammad Hassan Nami Hamideh DalaeiHeavy rainfall and its direct and indirect effects on human’s lives and activities not onlyjustify the attention to the peripheral phenomenon but also provide the way to predict theirfuture occurrence.In thisstudy, after selectin gcriteria for Iran’s heavy r MoreHeavy rainfall and its direct and indirect effects on human’s lives and activities not onlyjustify the attention to the peripheral phenomenon but also provide the way to predict theirfuture occurrence.In thisstudy, after selectin gcriteria for Iran’s heavy rainfallin theSouthWest, theperipheralto circulation approach was used and the synoptic conditions at thetime of the event(21November2011) was evaluated. Results show that the progression ofSudan low pressure from the South and the European high pressure from the North and thecollision of the setwohot and coldsystems have made the mass in West and SouthWest of thecountry. In addition,in the middle level of atmosphere deepening of the Mediterraneanlanding area and its East- toward movement on the same day has located the study area in theEast Region of the landing are a which is the positive volubility area and the created spin hasmoved to the East. Therefore, Due to the severe the rmalinstability and gradient this led torising air in the region.Highhumidity has also contributed to instability and has providedconditions for heavy rainfallin the region more than before Also, one of the other factorsaffecting the heavy rainfallin the study area is that he subtropical river windspeed core haslocated on the Red Sea andin the north of Arabia Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
22 - Assess the drought situation in Kashan desert of Kashan and Aran ShhrstanHay Bidgol (NushaBad) using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
Amir Fakhrabadi ALIREZA ENTEZARY Omolbanin BazErafshanDrought is creeping phenomenon, which affects and threatening human life. Drought in a period of unusually dry weather that lack enough water to cause hydrological imbalance faces define. Drought is studied in four main characteristics include intensity, duration, frequ MoreDrought is creeping phenomenon, which affects and threatening human life. Drought in a period of unusually dry weather that lack enough water to cause hydrological imbalance faces define. Drought is studied in four main characteristics include intensity, duration, frequency and areal extent. The aim of this study is mapping the intensity of droughts in Kashan. For this purpose, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as an indicator for drought monitoring stations located in the plains of the period of 20 years (1390-1369) in the time scale 3,6,9,12,24 and 48 months were used. The most frequent drought in 24 months and the most comprehensive range of acute and severe drought in the plains. SPI values for the severe drought in the province timescales for geostatistics techniques and were classified image. The maps show the extent of the drought and the reduced by increasing the time scale drought in the plains of the West to the East increased. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
23 - Thermodynamic and Synoptic analysis of torrential rain in the kermanshah
S. Ameneh sajjadiOne of the most important disaster in the west of Iran, Particularly in cold season isflood. The precipitation in the west regions is longer while tropical systems arepredominant. In this research we studied this percipitation which is accompany withconvective instabili MoreOne of the most important disaster in the west of Iran, Particularly in cold season isflood. The precipitation in the west regions is longer while tropical systems arepredominant. In this research we studied this percipitation which is accompany withconvective instability. one long precipitation period (1994) in the cold season ofkermanshah .Maps:surface, 500 & 300 hpa levels , upper atmosphere of kermanshahzone & skew-T diagrams at (1200UTC) hour were applied for synoptical analysis.Thermodynamical indexes mixing ratio,Potential temperature and instability ofAtmosphere (Si,Ki,CAPE)and pw were studied and It As a result west systems, inthese periods, accompany with a meditteranian low pressure system on the earthsurface and upper atmosphere Trouph and supplied enough moisture have suitablepattern for precipitation that . In this region the wind speed is at maximum which canbe identifical from maps 30 hpa levels. With calculation on torrential rain (average pw56 mm and 35 mm for start- average CAPE 1500 j/kg and 1000 j/kg for start - averageki 24 C° and 28 C° for start - average si -5 C° and -1 C° for start on torrential rain forabove factors we can opine about torrential rain not only in the kermanshah but also inother cases. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
24 - The Study of Precipitable Water and its use in Cloud Seeding with thermodynamic diagrams and Modis Satellite in Western Iran
سید علیرضا Sadeghi-HosseiniThe study of Precipitable water (PW) and determining the cloud seeding threshold areof great importance in reducing the considerable cost of unsuccessful seeding or overseeding which well result in a decrease in rainfall potentiality. The present study wascarried out wi MoreThe study of Precipitable water (PW) and determining the cloud seeding threshold areof great importance in reducing the considerable cost of unsuccessful seeding or overseeding which well result in a decrease in rainfall potentiality. The present study wascarried out within a four-year period covering from 2000 to 2003 where the amount ofrainfall in Tabriz and Kermanshah was recorded by precipitation stations. instabilityindices, PW were calculated using the data obtained through radiosonde,thermodynamic diagram, and Modis satellite. Using the curve and upon choosing thePW and the rainfall average as dependent variable, from among the PW, the suitablecloud seeding threshold was estimated.The thresholds obtained through Modis and radiosonde for cloud seeding and PWwere compared across 21 cases. The two methods employed showed high correlation.The thresholds obtained through Modis in East Azerbaijan and Kermanshah were 7mm and 12 mm respectively, while the thresholds obtained through radiosonde on thesame days for PW were 9 mm in East Azerbaijan and 15 mm in Kermanshah. Ingeneral, the amount of PW obtained through radiosonde proved to be greater thanthose achieved through Modis. It is mainly due to the fact that the clouds’ build uptime and satellite picturing were not synchronous; moreover, the Modis had highersensitivity to the back scattering of the infrared waves by heavy clouds and, at thesame time, and the low sensitivity in fogy condition on earth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
25 - Modeling rainfall event characteristics using D-vine copulas
مریم شفائی احمد فاخری فرد یعقوب دین پژوه رسول میرعباسیInvestigation of precipitation characteristics is necessitate in understanding and predicting phenomena of precipitation such as runoff and flood. Therefore in this study, dependence among the main characteristics of a rainfall event (i.e., rainfall depth R, maximum rai MoreInvestigation of precipitation characteristics is necessitate in understanding and predicting phenomena of precipitation such as runoff and flood. Therefore in this study, dependence among the main characteristics of a rainfall event (i.e., rainfall depth R, maximum rainfall depth M, wet period L, and dry period D) were modeled using D-vine structure. Firstly, different multivariate probability distributions were built, making all the permutations of the conditioning variables and then Archimedean and Elliptic copulas were used for fitting each pair-copula. The best copula family was selected for fitting on each pair-copula according to different criteria. In the next stage, M-R-D-L structure, i.e., with D conditioned by L, R by D and L, and M by R, D, and L, was known as the most suitable structure considering to AIC and BIC criteria. Finally, rainfall event characteristics were simulated using the selected structure. In order to evaluation of simulation accuracy of proposed model, the main statistics of simulated variables were compared with those of observed variables. The results showed that the majority of simulated statistics have good accordance with observed statistics. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
26 - Investigating effective parameters of surface flow and water resources spatial zoning in central Zagross, Iran
Nasser Shamskia Hossein Sedghi Mehrdad EsfandyariVarious parameters, such as rainfall, region height, evaporation rate, temperature, climate factors, drainage, topography and geology of the basin effect runoff in watersheds. Due to the interrelation of some of the mentioned parameters, their quality and effect on runo MoreVarious parameters, such as rainfall, region height, evaporation rate, temperature, climate factors, drainage, topography and geology of the basin effect runoff in watersheds. Due to the interrelation of some of the mentioned parameters, their quality and effect on runoff may be different for each region. This paper presents a statistic assessment of the parameters that are effective on runoff and spatial zoning of surface water resources in central Zagross, west of Iran. The results showed a relationship between logarithmic distribution of surface runoff, and temperature and height variables with a 0.795 - 0.851 R2 coefficient of determination, applying statistical analysis and multi-variable regression method for the parameters. Considering 80 selected stations of the studying area with a correlation of 0.923, the runoff distribution in the form of discharge logarithm related to rain logarithm and height variable with confidence level of 95% showed meaningful and acceptable relation .The zoning plan was prepared through ArcGIS software on the basis of weighting effect index of each variable. The analysis of factors which affect runoff formation, and also analysis of the effect of the mentioned variables on preparing zoning plan showed tremendous movement of potentially appropriate water resources regions from south towards north and east of the studying area. Furthermore, there was approximate correspondence between hydrological parameters and determination of suitable water resources location, and statistic multi-variable regression analysis, logistic and weighting index determination of variables methods. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
27 - Climate change impact assessment on extreme daily rainfalls in Kermanshah
Mojtaba Heidari Mohammad Reza KhazaeiOne of the potential impacts of climate change is the change on extreme rainfalls frequency and magnitude. For active adaptation strategy, it is required to assess the impacts of climate change on heavy rainfalls. Many downscaling methods have been developed, however mo MoreOne of the potential impacts of climate change is the change on extreme rainfalls frequency and magnitude. For active adaptation strategy, it is required to assess the impacts of climate change on heavy rainfalls. Many downscaling methods have been developed, however most of them are not adequate for assessing climate change impact on extreme rainfalls. Among them, the NSRP rainfall model, which is generally ignored in previous studies, have considerable capabilities for climate change impact assessment on extreme rainfalls. In this paper, capability of the NSRP for daily rainfall series generation and climate change impact assessment on extreme rainfalls in Kermanshah is evaluated. The results indicated that NSRP can realistically simulate daily rainfall series containing extreme rainfalls; and can be used for climate change impact assessment on extreme rainfalls. Using the model, 100 series of daily rainfall of length 30 years were generated under each of the future A2, B1 and A1B scenarios from the CGCM3 model. Based on the results, magnitude of annual maximum rainfall of durations of one to five days will increase in future. Seasonal cycles of monthly means and accordance of extreme rainfalls will change. Long-term average of rainfall will decrease while extreme rainfall magnitude will increase. So it can be concluded that change in rainfall averages in monthly or yearly timescales cannot provide credit information about change in rainfall extremes. Respect to the results, for the future plans which are impressible of heavy rainfalls, the climate change impacts on heavy rainfalls should be considered. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
28 - Prediction of SPI drought index using support vector and multiple linear regressions
Saeed Samadianfard اسماعیل اسدیDrought is a natural phenomenon, which has a complex mechanism as a result of interactions of meteorological parameters and usually occurs in all climates. So, predicting drought indices and their chronological evaluation is an effective way for the drought management a MoreDrought is a natural phenomenon, which has a complex mechanism as a result of interactions of meteorological parameters and usually occurs in all climates. So, predicting drought indices and their chronological evaluation is an effective way for the drought management and adaptation with its consequences. In the current research, prediction of drought indices are carried out for Tabriz synoptic station, using support vector regression, multiple linear regression and standard precipitation index (SPI) for the time period of 1979 to 2012. In this regard, for predicting SPI indices in the periods of 3, 6, 9, 12, 24 and 48 months, six different input combinations including the antecedent correspondent values of the mentioned index have been utilized. The results of statistical analysis showed that both methods had significant accuracy. Nonetheless, the support vector regressions for predicting SPI-6, SPI-9 and SPI-24 had better performances, regarding the root mean squared errors of 0.4985, 0.4340 and 0.2427, respectively. However, the multiple linear regressions showed lower relative errors, for predicting SPI-3, SPI-12 and SPI-48. Meanwhile, it can be concluded that both examined methods including support vector and multiple linear regressions had acceptable predictions of drought index and can be used with an admissible confidentiality for the management of drought consequences. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
29 - Evaluation of wavelet – least square support vector machine hybrid model to rainfall time series spatiotemporal disaggregation
nima farboudfam Vahid Nourani babak aminnejadThe need to simulate rainfall time series at different scales for engineering purposes on the one hand and lack of recording such parameters in small scales because of administrative and economic problems, on the other hand, disaggregation of rainfall time series to the MoreThe need to simulate rainfall time series at different scales for engineering purposes on the one hand and lack of recording such parameters in small scales because of administrative and economic problems, on the other hand, disaggregation of rainfall time series to the desired scale is an essential topic. In this study, for disaggregating the Tabriz and Sahand rain gauges time series, according to nonlinear characteristics of time scales, wavelet- Least Square Support Vector Machine (WLSSVM) hybrid model is proposed and daily data of four rain gauges and monthly data of six rain gauges from Urmia Lake Basin for ten years were decomposed with wavelet transform and then by using mutual information and correlation coefficient criteria, the subseries were ranked and superior subseries were used as input data of Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) model for disaggregating the Tabriz and Sahand rain gauges monthly rainfall time series to the daily time series. Results obtained from the WLSSVM disaggregation model were compared with the results of LSSVM and traditional multiple linear regression models. The results of WLSSVM model to LSSVM and multiple linear regression models at validation stage in the optimized case for Tabriz rain gauge were increased 10% and 37.5% and in the optimized case for Sahand rain gauge were increased 24.5% and 46.7% respectively. It was concluded that hybrid WLSSVM model has a higher accuracy than two other methods and can be considered as an accurate disaggregation model to disaggregate the rainfall time series. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
30 - Comparison and Assessment of Light Vehicles Damages Based on Stability Theories in Floodwater(Case Study: Shiraz Flood)
Reyhaneh Golmohammadi Alireza ShokoohiIntroduction: Evaluation of damages caused by flash floods in urban areas is one of the most important concerns after their occurrence. Like other urban elements, vehicles suffer damage that should be considered for managing urban floods. The damage values in most car MoreIntroduction: Evaluation of damages caused by flash floods in urban areas is one of the most important concerns after their occurrence. Like other urban elements, vehicles suffer damage that should be considered for managing urban floods. The damage values in most car damage models in flood are presented with the assumption of their stability and purely in terms of depth, while the flood velocity as flood important variable is also effective on the severity of damages. In the present research, while evaluating the eight theories presented in the Australian Rainfall and Runoff Guideline (AR&R), an attempt is made to provide the best theory to provide a simple and accurate algorithm for determining the damage to sedan vehicles in flood as a function of depth and velocity.Methods: To achieve the goal of this research, the formulas and diagrams of the stability limit of eight theories presented in AR&R were evaluated and after deleting one of the theories and modifying the Melbourne Water presented in 1996 and DPW presented in 1986 formulas, the stability map of the sedan cars in Darwaze Quran flood on March 25, 2019 in Shiraz was produced for seven theories proposed in this guideline. Subsequently, by combining the stability limits of each theory with the HAZUS-MH depth-damage diagram and zoning below the stability limit diagram as stable areas, the risk map algorithm for stable sedan vehicles was provided separately for each theory. In the following, the risk map in the adjacent parking area of the water pool upstream of the Quran Gate of Shiraz for each theory and, with their help, the total damage for the Pride_131 was calculated as a common vehicle in Iran. Finally, the measures of maximum damage, as well as the total damages were obtained from each one.Results: One of the main and most important results of this research is providing an algorithm for determining the damage of the sedan vehicles in a certain range of depth and speed for each of the theories proposed in AR&R, which were used for producing the risk map. In addition, the total damages for the Pride-131 as an index car were calculated by the proposed algorithms. The minimum damage was obtained by using AR&R (1987) theory algorithm equal to 10 billion and 265 million toman and the maximum amount of damage was obtained by using achieved by using AR&R (2011) theory algorithm equal to 14 billion and 32 million toman.Conclusion: It was found that the use of the depth of flood as a hydrostatic index, which is now the criterion for calculating car damage, is not accurate enough and it is better to use velocity and depth composition as a hydrodynamic index for this purpose. At the same time, it was proved that among the other theories, the relation and the final limit of stability presented in the AR&R (2011) theory to provide a model for determining the damage to small and light vehicles in the flood as a function of depth and velocity has better and more reliable results. It is worth noting in order to achieve the more accurate damage amounts of vehicles in flood, more theoretical and experimental studies considering different types of vehicles are essential. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
31 - Evaluation of high spatio-temporal resolution precipitation products over Dareh-Roud Ardebil basin
Alireza Pilpayeh Afshin Shayeghi Aydin Bakhtar Akbar Rahmati Afshin VatankhahInappropriate distribution of precipitation measurement stations has increased the use of gridded precipitation datasets consisting of satellite, reanalysis and ground- based datasets .Accurate measurement and estimation of precipitation amounts and events is very impor MoreInappropriate distribution of precipitation measurement stations has increased the use of gridded precipitation datasets consisting of satellite, reanalysis and ground- based datasets .Accurate measurement and estimation of precipitation amounts and events is very important. With the increasing development of satellite technologies in recent decades, access to high spatio- temporal resolution of precipitation data has been provided in many parts of the world. Given that these precipitation datasets cannot be used without initial assessment due to uncertainties in estimating cloud and precipitation thickness. The purpose of this study was to evaluate CMORPH, PERSIANN and PERSIANN-CDR precipitation datasets based on statistical indices such as contingency table indices at Dare-roud basin which is located in Ardabil province. Results show that CMORPH product performs better in estimating basin precipitation in most of the stations with RMSE index less than 3 mm and CC index higher than 0.7. Also in terms of the contingency table indices, the CMORPH performs better in most of the indices (except Bias) than other products, so it is recommended to correct its bias and use this precipitation product in future studies in Darehroud basin. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
32 - Evaluation of the impact of climate change on extreme flows in Kan watershed
Baharak Motamedvaziri mehdi ahmadi Hasan Ahmadi Abolfazl Moeini Gholam Reza ZehtabianClimate change is one of the major challenges affecting the natural ecosystems and various aspects of human life. The effects of global warming on the hydrology and water cycle in nature are very serious, and the quantitative recognition of these effects creates more re MoreClimate change is one of the major challenges affecting the natural ecosystems and various aspects of human life. The effects of global warming on the hydrology and water cycle in nature are very serious, and the quantitative recognition of these effects creates more readiness to deal with its consequences. In the present study, the 2010-2100 periods is predicted based on SDSM and ASD. Finally, the effect of climate change on the hydrological conditions in the Kan watershed is simulated using the ANN and IHACRES. The results of the study, while confirming the efficiency of both SDSM and ASD models in climate simulations and ANN and IHACRES in hydrological simulation, showed that the increase in precipitation (2-27%) and temperature (0.3- 4/4 C) is probable in future climate conditions for the 2010-2100 periods. Runoff changes in the upcoming period (2010-2039) show an increase (5- 36 %) in the scenario of RCPs and a decrease (32- 41%) in scenario A2. The high flow value in the upcoming period is increased, and the low flow decrease. Most changes were observed in spring. The results of research, while highlighting the importance of effects of climate change, make it essential to apply them for proper management in order to adapt to climate change in the future policies of the Kan watershed management. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
33 - Evaluation of Daily, Decade and Monthly Data Satellite Images to Estimate of Precipitation Using Google Earth engine in Khuzestan Province
Arash Tafteh Sina Mallah Niazali EbrahimipakSince synoptic metrological stations have non-uniformed scattering pattern in Iran and on the other hand precipitation determination and forecasting is essential for irrigation planning, a method precisely determine precipitation of agricultural lands in farm level has MoreSince synoptic metrological stations have non-uniformed scattering pattern in Iran and on the other hand precipitation determination and forecasting is essential for irrigation planning, a method precisely determine precipitation of agricultural lands in farm level has great importance. This study was carried out in Google Earth Engine Code programming environment using GPM, TRMM and CHIRPS satellite data which is daily, decade and monthly, respectively in Ahwaz and Izeh metrological stations for calibration and 9 meteorological stations for validation during 2015-2016 and 2017 - 2018 Growing season. Results showed that monthly interval could obtain better accuracy with R2 of 0.99 and NRMSE = 0.36, respectively. The validation results of the rest 9 meteoroidal station indicated that precipitation prediction had 51% and 3.1 mm error and under estimation on average, respectively. The efficiency was reasonable and F-Test showed no significant difference between observed and prediction samples. The standard error value was 14.2 mm which is a significant error and need to work on updated better functions. It can be concluded that this method can be a useful tool for monthly precipitation prediction of areas with no climatic data if integrated with Kriging, co-Kriging and Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) geostatistical models for interpolation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
34 - Investigating the Effect of Meteorological Parameters on Heavy Rainfall Events in Different Climates of Iran using Quantile Regression
Sedigheh Bararkhanpour Ahmadi Mohammad Ali Gholami Sefidkouhi Mojtaba KhoshraveshBackground and Aim: Climate changes caused by the progress and industrialization of human societies have caused changes in the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation and floods, which have caused irreparable damages. In order to reduce these damages, it is neces MoreBackground and Aim: Climate changes caused by the progress and industrialization of human societies have caused changes in the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation and floods, which have caused irreparable damages. In order to reduce these damages, it is necessary to identify the changes in the threshold values of precipitation and factors affecting it each region. Quantile regression methods are able to examine the trends not only in the median, but also in different ranges of the data series. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to investigate the seasonal trend of different amounts of precipitation and also to investigate the relationship between the climatic parameters of minimum temperature, maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, maximum relative humidity and wind speed on different amounts of precipitation in different climates of Iran. Method: In the first step, the daily time series of climate data including precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, minimum and maximum relative humidity and wind speed for a period of 45 years in different seasons for 5 synoptic stations of Babolsar, Shiraz, Bandar Abbas, Khorram Abad and Torbat Heydarieh were formed. In the selection of study stations, we tried to select stations with different climates and with appropriate statistical period. Then, to investigate the trend of seasonal changes of different amounts of precipitation in different quantiles (quantiles 0.01, 0.05, 0.1, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 0.9, 0.95 and 0.99) was analyzed using the quantile regression method in all study stations. In the next step, the relationship between the climatic parameters on different amounts of precipitation (low to very high amounts of precipitation) in different seasons was investigated for each of the stations using the quantile regression method. Then the results were analyzed. Results: The results of examining the changes trend of daily precipitation are showed that the high amounts of precipitation in the spring season in Bandar Abbas, Shiraz, and Torbat Heydarieh stations were reduced significantly, but very high amounts of precipitation (0.95 and 0.99 troughs) in the station Babolsar and Khorramabad have increased. Also, very high daily precipitation amounts in summer have decreased in Bandar Abbas station but increased in Torbat Heydarieh and Khorram Abad stations, significantly. While in the winter season, different amounts of precipitation in all seasons have a decreasing trend and there was only a significant positive slope in very high amounts of precipitation (slope of 0.99) in Babolsar station. In the investigation of the parameters affecting the extreme precipitation, the results showed that the amount of impact on the occurrence of heavy rainfall was relatively higher than low to median rainfall. The parameters of minimum temperature, minimum humidity, maximum humidity and wind speed have a positive effect and the maximum temperature parameter has a negative effect on heavy rainfall in different seasons and stations. The highest positive effect coefficients were in spring for wind speed in Babolsar (1.8), in summer for wind speed in Babolsar (3.8), minimum and maximum temperature in Bandar Abbas (-4.03 and 1.53), in Autumn season for maximum humidity and wind speed in Babolsar (2.57 and 2.99) and wind speed in Khorram Abad (1.54) and in winter, for wind speed in Babolsar and Bandar Abbas (1.94 and 6. 2), and minimum temperature in Torbat Heydarieh (0.96). Also, the highest negative effect coefficients of maximum temperature were in autumn and winter seasons (-0.88 and -0.72) in Babolsar and autumn season (-0.63) in Shiraz. Conclusion: The significant changes in increasing and decreasing precipitation are mostly related to the amounts of heavy precipitation, which are different in different seasons and climates. Also, the precipitation of the stations near the north and south coasts have been influenced by climatic parameters to a greater extent. In general, it can be said that flood precipitations are influenced by climatic parameters such as wind speed, humidity and temperature in order of importance and this effect is different depending on the location and time and the influence of different factors. Therefore, it is necessary to apply accurate planning for the correct use of received rainfall and optimal management in the target area using the results of such studies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
35 - Comparison of MIKE NAM and AWBM models performance in simulation of daily runoff in Gokbad Catchment in Hamedan province
Yasamin Sajadi Bami Jahangir Porhemmat Hossein Sedghi Navid JalalkamaliApart from the understanding of the impact of land use and climate changes on the water cycle and hydrology regime, hydrological models are effective tools for designing and managing water resources. Currently, many hydrological models have been developed to simulate th MoreApart from the understanding of the impact of land use and climate changes on the water cycle and hydrology regime, hydrological models are effective tools for designing and managing water resources. Currently, many hydrological models have been developed to simulate the basin, though choosing the right model is a challenge. To this end, a correct understanding of the model, its advantages, and limitations is necessary. In this regard, several studies have been conducted to evaluate the hydrological models performance in different regions and conditions. In the present study, the performance of two integrated hydrological and conceptual rainfall-runoff models of AWBM and MIKE NAM in the simulation of the average daily runoff in Gonbad Hamedan basin was investigated. Although both models are lumped models for rainfall-runoff process, the MIKE NAM model has a more complex structure compared to the AWBM. In addition to considering the initial conditions, MIKE NAM model is also capable of simulating snowmelt. The results of the runoff simulation during the calibration and validation periods were evaluated using two statistical indicators of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS). The NSE and PBIAS during the calibration and validation periods for the MIKE NAM model were 0.8, 6.3 and 0.71, -4.2; and 0.6, 14.33 and 0.55, -9.2 for AWBM model, respectively. The results showed that MIKE NAM model has a better performance in simulating daily runoff in Gonbad Moarref basin compared to the AWBM model. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
36 - Comparison of performance of C-Vine and D-Vine tree copulas in multivariate analysis of precipitation characteristics
Maryam Shafaei Rasoul MirabbasiIn this study, the basic features of a tree vine copula such as the ability to decompose multivariate distributions into two-dimensional distributions, its flexibility in high-dimensional problems, and the use of conditional dependencies between variables have been cons MoreIn this study, the basic features of a tree vine copula such as the ability to decompose multivariate distributions into two-dimensional distributions, its flexibility in high-dimensional problems, and the use of conditional dependencies between variables have been considered. The purpose is to use C-Vine and D-Vine structures to determine the four-dimensional probabilistic distribution function of important characteristics of precipitation events of Cremona rain station located in Italy including maximum precipitation intensity total precipitation depth, wet period duration and dry period. So that, a combination of the most suitable Archimedean and elliptical copulas families was identified to fit the pair-copulas of each of the C-Vine and D-Vine structures. The optimal combined distribution functions of C-Vine and D-Vine structures were also calculated using chain density functions and compared with the four-dimensional experimental copula of important precipitation characteristics. Finally, the accuracy of C-Vine and D-Vine tree structures in determining the combined distribution functions of important precipitation characteristics was compared. The results showed that the RDLM C-Vine structure has a minimum value of evaluation criteria RMSE = 0.029 and MAE = 0.022, as well as a maximum of P-value = 0.35 and R2 = 0.998 among all C-Vine and D-Vine structures. As a result, it has the highest accuracy for frequency analyzing the of precipitation characteristics of Cremona station in Italy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
37 - Evaluation of Global Gridded Precipitation Datasets for Drought Monitoring (Case Study: Great Karoon Watershed)
Behzad Navidi Nassaj Narges Zohrabi Alireza Nikbakht Shahbazi Hossein FathianIn this study, the Spatio-temporal performance of 5 global gridded precipitation datasets including GPCC V8, CHIRPS V2, ECMWF ERA5, NASA MERRA2, and PERSIANN-CDR (PCDR) in drought monitoring has been evaluated. For this purpose, the standardized precipitation index (SPI MoreIn this study, the Spatio-temporal performance of 5 global gridded precipitation datasets including GPCC V8, CHIRPS V2, ECMWF ERA5, NASA MERRA2, and PERSIANN-CDR (PCDR) in drought monitoring has been evaluated. For this purpose, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and precipitation information of 13 synoptic stations of the Meteorological Organization of Iran during the thirty years of 1987-2016 has been used. Comparisons were carried out based on performance indices include correlation, mean square root error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, and modified agreement index (MAI) as well as drought detection accuracy metrics including False Alarm Ratio (FAR), probability of detection (POD) and the Critical Success Index (CSI). The results showed that GPCC, ERA5, PCDR datasets had a strong agreement with SPI observations so that they showed the drought trends and situations well and their R2 with observational SPI was Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
38 - Fluctuations Analysis of Rainfall and Runoff in Aras Border Basin under Climate Change Conditions
Amin Sadeqi Yagob DinpashohIn this study, rainfall and runoff data recorded of selected stations of Aras Boundary Basin were used to analyze rainfall and runoff fluctuations and they are projected for horizons, 2050. The Pettitt test was used to detect the breakpoint in rainfall and runoff time s MoreIn this study, rainfall and runoff data recorded of selected stations of Aras Boundary Basin were used to analyze rainfall and runoff fluctuations and they are projected for horizons, 2050. The Pettitt test was used to detect the breakpoint in rainfall and runoff time series. Trends in rainfall and runoff were also calculated using the original and modified Mann-Kendall test. To project the future, general circulation models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios i.e. RCP4.5 (low emission) and RCP8.5 (high emissions) were used. The Eureqa Formulize tool was used to simulate the rainfall-runoff process. Results showed that most of the abrupt changes have occurred in the second half of the 1990s. 83% of seasonal time series breakpoints were related to runoff. Also, 67% of the abrupt changes have occurred in the winter and spring seasons. The highest increase in annual rainfall (according to RCP4.5 scenario) at Nir station is expected to be 9% and the highest decrease in annual rainfall (according to RCP8.5 scenario) at Khoy station is predicted at 11%. It is also worth mentioning that in the seasonal time scale will have the highest rainfall reduction in summer. The Eureqa Formulize performed very well at all stations with NRMSE of less than 0.5%. The results indicated that the lowest slope of the base period runoff trend line (in seasonal time scale) was -1.3 million m3 in summer at Badalan station. There will be no significant change in the annual flow in the future period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
39 - Projection of extreme precipitation in climate change condition and sensitivity analysis of results to downscaling method
Mohammad Reza Khazaei Reza KazemiThe frequency and intensity of extreme rainfalls will increase over many areas of the globe due to climate change. So, it is required to revise result of such studies based on the climate change scenarios. One of the most effective tools in such studies is Weather Gener MoreThe frequency and intensity of extreme rainfalls will increase over many areas of the globe due to climate change. So, it is required to revise result of such studies based on the climate change scenarios. One of the most effective tools in such studies is Weather Generators, including LARS-WG. While GCMs predict future changes in the various characteristics of precipitation, usually in downscaling using LARS-WG, just changes of monthly averages are considered. In this paper, the future climate change impact on extreme precipitation in Gorgan and Khoramabad stations are assessed; while, the results of two methods of applying just change in averages (simple method) or applying changes in various characteristics of precipitation (complete method) in downscaling are compared. For future, CanESM2 outputs under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios for 2036-2065 period were used. The results showed that for climate change impact assessment on extreme rainfalls, additional to change in averages, change in other precipitation characteristics should be considered. Because the results of the two methods are different. In Gorgan, for example, the annual maximum daily rainfall with a return period of 15 years in the future will increase by 16 to 21 percent according to the more complete method, but between 37 and 49 percent according to the simpler method. Based on the complete, Intensity of the extreme rainfalls at both stations will increase in the future. This increase will be between 23% and 30% for the 2-year return period and between 25% and 29% for the 30-year return period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
40 - Application of the Nested Copula Functions for Analysis of Four variate of Meteorological Droughts (Case Study: West of Iran)
zabihollah khani temeliyeh Hossien Rezaie Rasoul MirabbasiDrought is a natural disaster and inevitable phenomenon, which should be considered preventable, but can be managed and organized. The main purpose of this study is to show how copula functions are used in the four-variable analysis of drought in the west of Iran. For t MoreDrought is a natural disaster and inevitable phenomenon, which should be considered preventable, but can be managed and organized. The main purpose of this study is to show how copula functions are used in the four-variable analysis of drought in the west of Iran. For this purpose, the drought characteristics, including severity, duration, inter arrival time and peak were extracted using modified Standardized Precipitation Index (SPImod). Then the frequency distributions were fitted to the mentioned drought characteristics and the best fitted marginal distribution were specified for every drought characteristics. The results showed that the gamma and exponential distributions had the best fitness on the drought severity and duration, respectively. Also, for drought peak and inter arrival time variables, the GEV function was known as the best fitted marginal distribution. In order to four variate analysis of drought characteristics, these variables were paired two by two using nested copula method. For this purpose, the fitness of nine copula functions, including Clayton, Ali-Mikhail- Haq, Farlie- Gamble- Morgenstern, Frank, Gamble, Gamble- Hougaard, Plackett, Philip Gamble and Joe were examined using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Maximum Likelihood (ML), and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) criteria. The results showed that Joe copula is the best function for constructing the multivariate distribution in the study area. Also, this study showed that a four-variate analysis of drought provide useful information for planners and managers for drought prediction and planning to cope with drought consequences. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
41 - Drought Prediction Using North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Over Western Regions of Iran
Mehdi Moghasemi Narges Zohrabi Hossein Fathian Alireza Nikbakht Shahbazi Mohammadreza YeganegiBackground and Aim: Drought as a natural hazard significantly impacts various sectors such as agriculture and water resources and causes considerable damage to these sectors worldwide. Therefore, adaptation strategies should be taken to reduce drought damage, and in the MoreBackground and Aim: Drought as a natural hazard significantly impacts various sectors such as agriculture and water resources and causes considerable damage to these sectors worldwide. Therefore, adaptation strategies should be taken to reduce drought damage, and in the meantime, planning and adaptation to drought conditions using drought forecasting is one of the most effective strategies. Due to the need for drought forecasting and the limited studies that evaluated drought indicators obtained from the rainfall forecast output from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) in Iran. This study evaluated these models in four catchments of Karkheh, Karun, Heleh, and Hindijan-Jarahi for1982-2018.Method: In this study, the monthly output of different NMME ensembles were evaluated in the forecast leads of 0 to 9 months from 1982 to 2018, the SPI drought index was calculated. Comparison of these data with GPCC data was used for evaluation. Three quantitative criteria, including correlation coefficient, RMSE, and BIAS, were used for evaluation. Also, to integrate the existing models, two methods: a: Arithmetic mean between the existing models and B: Weighted average between the models have been evaluated by considering the correlation coefficient (CC) results. Also, two criteria (i.e., POD and FAR) and the quantitative statistical criterion (i.e., correlation coefficient) were used to evaluate the SPI drought index.Results: The results of the precipitation evaluation of the models showed that the integrated models have better performance than the individual models. In this integrated model, the weighted model also had better performance. Evaluation of spatial distribution of precipitation models also showed the excellent performance of NMME models in Karun and Hindijan-Jarahi catchments in the zero-month forecast lead and Hindijan-Jarahi catchments in the one-month forecast lead. The results of drought index evaluation showed that integrated models, although having better performance in precipitation forecasting, but in drought forecasting, the best performance belongs to NASA-GMAO-062012 and CFSv2 models. The results also showed that drought index forecasts in three and six-month periods have better performance than one month. Spatial distribution evaluation also showed that the models perform better in the southern basins. In general, it can be concluded that NMME models have good performance in predicting drought in some places and specific forecast leads, so they should be evaluated at each point before use.Conclusion: The results of precipitation evaluation showed that, in general, integrating the output of dynamic models increases its proficiency, and integration in weighted mode (WeightedNMME) performs better than the non-weighted model (NMME). According to the zero-month forecast among individual models, the NASA-GMAO-062012 model has the most skills in terms of the correlation coefficient. However, in the one-month forecast lead in terms of the correlation coefficient, RMSE and BIAS, the best performance belongs to the CFSv2 model. Evaluation of drought indices showed that the model's performance could be different from their performance in predicting rainfall. WeightedNMME, for example, performed well in NASA-GMAO-062012 and CFSv2 months, although they performed well in predicting drought. The spatial evaluation also showed that the southern catchments perform better than other basins. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
42 - Uncertainty Evaluation due to TIGGE Global System Precipitation Data for Flood Forecasting
Soudabeh Behiyan Motlagh Afshin Honarbakhsh Asghar AzizianBackground and Aim: The occurrence of frequent floods in Iran necessitates a flood forecasting and warning system with a suitable lead time. The use of numerical rainfall forecasting models in flood forecasting and warning is one of the important measures taken by resea MoreBackground and Aim: The occurrence of frequent floods in Iran necessitates a flood forecasting and warning system with a suitable lead time. The use of numerical rainfall forecasting models in flood forecasting and warning is one of the important measures taken by researchers in most parts of the world. The TIGGE database includes mid-term precipitation forecasts simulated by global forecast centers. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the efficiency and the degree of uncertainty caused by the rainfall forecasts of four numerical models of the TIGGE database (including CPTEC, ECCC, ECMWF, and KMA) for simulating floods with the HEC-HMS hydrological model.Methods: In this research, the precipitation data of seven meteorological stations were used to evaluate the uncertainty of discharge from TIGGE database precipitation prediction models in the Poldokhtar watershed. Also, three flood events on March 24, 2017, April 6, 2018, and April 15, 2018, were studied. At first, precipitation forecasts were extracted from four centers CPTEC, ECCC, ECMWF, and KMA. Due to the existence of systematic error in the forecasts, a bias correction was done on them, and to correct the bias, the Delta method was used. Processed and raw forecasts of four rainfall forecasting models were entered into the HEC-HMS model for flood forecasting, and in the next step, the flow uncertainty assessment of the HEC-HMS model was performed in all members of the four rainfall forecasting models. In this research, 5 factors P, R, S, T, and RD were used for uncertainty analysis.Results: The results indicate the significant superiority of the ECMWF model in predicting precipitation events. The use of all 4 rainfall sources led to an acceptable simulation of the flood peak flow in three different events. Also, the predicted peak discharge time had little difference from the observed data. According to the results of the uncertainty analysis, the ECMWF model was considered the best model based on P, R, S, T, and RD factors. The KMA model performed well in severe and very severe floods. The group prediction system of TIGGE models also had an acceptable performance in all events. Also, the hydrological-meteorological prediction model predicted the time of flood occurrence and the probability of occurrence well.Conclusion: The intended research investigates flood forecasting and warning in the Poldokhtar watershed using the meteorological-hydrological system, based on meteorological forecasts of the TIGGE database and flood simulation using the HEC-HMS hydrological model. The final product of this system is probable discharge and flood forecast. The results reveal the success of the TIGGE database in flood forecasting. The ECMWF model excelled in predicting peak discharge. The upper and lower band calculation method was used to determine the uncertainty, which showed the uncertainty well. This system displayed the time of peak discharge well and with a small time delay, which indicates its good performance. The predicted rainfall from the four centers used in this study (ECMWF, ECCC, CPTEC, and KMA) have significant differences. To reduce these differences, we used a multi-model group forecasting system that had encouraging results. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
43 - Precipitation Trend Analysis in Zohre-Jirahi Basin in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province
Amirabbas Mahmoudian Bidgoli Mohammadsadegh Sadeghian Ali Saremi hooman HajikandiBackground and Aim: Water resources management has long been the focus of residents in Iran. Knowing of the time and the amount of rainfall contributes to better planning for water resources management, and this can be examined according to the available statistical dat MoreBackground and Aim: Water resources management has long been the focus of residents in Iran. Knowing of the time and the amount of rainfall contributes to better planning for water resources management, and this can be examined according to the available statistical data. The need for knowledge about precipitation trends in the study areas facilitates and legalizes water resources management and planning and helps to supply water with a higher reliability factor. The purpose of this research is to estimate and analyze the precipitation trends in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province within the Zohre-Jirahi basin.Method: This research is carried out in the Zohre-Jirahi basin in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province based on the data from 1966 to 2018. In this regard, first, meteorological stations related to the studied area were located and their statistics were extracted from the received data. The stations’ data homogeneity is calculated based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov method, and those without homogeneous data or with limited data are removed and, 30 stations are selected for data rebuilding. Rebuilding of missing data is done with Inverse Distance Weighted methods with the power of two and ordinary linear Kriging and after evaluating the methods by three criteria of Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, and Coefficient of Determination, the optimal method is selected to rebuild the missing data in this study area. After rebuilding the data, a multi-dimensional raster containing rainfall information related to the years of the statistical period is produced and the time series of the relevant data is created in an array and per surface unit. In this research, according to the surface of the study area, time series of 8915 points are analyzed, and the trend of changes based on the Mann-Kendall method and Sen's slope on an annual and monthly scale are assessed in these points and, raster maps are produced.Results: Among the methods used for rebuilding missing data, based on the evaluation of the models, the optimal method for rebuilding missing data in the study area was the Inverse Distance Weighted method with a coefficient of determination of 0.95.The results of calculations on an annual scale show that the average Sen's slope in the study area does not have a significant trend and is equal to 0.0011. The average Sen's slope in the study area on a monthly scale is 0.28 in April and has an upward trend, in May Sen's slope is equal to -0.03 and indicates a downward trend and in June and July, an unobserved trend, and the results of Sen's slope calculations are zero. In August, there is an upward trend, and it’s value is equal to 0.11. In September, there is an upward trend, and it is equal to 0.06. In October, there is no observed trend, and it is equivalent to zero. In November and December, the trend is upward, and the average Sen's slope in the study area is equal to 0.19 and 0.62, respectively, and in January, February and March, the downward trend is equal to -0.48, -0.55, and -0.14.Conclusion: The results do not demonstrate a significant trend on an annual scale, however on a monthly scale, in December, April, November, August, and September, respectively, the highest upward trend is observed, while in February, December, March, and May, respectively, have the highest downward trend, and June, July, and October lack trends. The maximum average Sen's slope is calculated for December and equal to 0.62, and its minimum is in February and equal to -0.55. The management of water resources, especially in the agricultural sector as the main consumer, has large economic and social dimensions and is inevitable, and due to the great impact of water supply time to optimize and increase productivity, this research can be used to review the pattern and time of cultivation in this area. Groundwater artificial recharge, storage process, and consumption process should adapt to the new changes. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
44 - Investigating Changes in the Intensity of Short-Term Rainfall in the Last Half Century in the Context of Data Scarcity (Case Study: Rasht City)
Mehdi Torabi Alireza ShokoohiBackground and Aim: With the increase in the production of greenhouse gases due to the industrialization of the countries of the world, we are witnessing the occurrence of global warming, which has caused climate changes all over the planet in recent years. One of the e MoreBackground and Aim: With the increase in the production of greenhouse gases due to the industrialization of the countries of the world, we are witnessing the occurrence of global warming, which has caused climate changes all over the planet in recent years. One of the effects of this phenomenon is the change in the behavior of weather parameters such as temperature and precipitation. The effects of climate change phenomenon on precipitation have led to changes in the intensity of precipitation and finally changes in intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves of precipitation for different regions of the world and country. Therefore, updating the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves is necessary because of their importance in the design of hydraulic structures used in urban flood management. One of the problems of producing intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves is the lack of access to rainfall data with different continuities. The purpose of this research is to use the fractal method to obtain precipitation with different continuities and then evaluate the effect of climate change on the intensity of precipitation in Rasht City. .Method: In this research, the accuracy of the fractal method for generating intensity-duration-frequency curves is first evaluated. Then intensity-duration-abundance curves are produced by using fractal theory and by determining the effect of climate change on rainfall intensity by TREND software, two periods before and after climate change are evaluated and compared.Results: In this research, the validation of the Fractal method shows that the IDF curve production for Rasht city using the Fractal method compared to the IDF curve production using observational data has about a three percent difference. Therefore, this method was used to generate IDF curves for the years when rainfall data with less than three hours of duration was not available. The evaluation of IDF curves with TREND software on the rainfall intensity for different durations demonstrates that the rainfall intensity jump occurred in 2003 towards becoming more intense due to the effect of climate change. For example, for 10 minutes with a return period of 100 years before the effect of climate change, the intensity of rainfall is 158 (mm/h) and after the effect of climate change, the intensity of rainfall is 225 (mm/h). Also, the results showed that the period of short returns has changed more than the period of large returns, that is, the 2-year return period has increased by about 70% and the 100-year return period has increased by about 40%.Conclusion: In this research, by evaluating the fractal method, it was determined that if there is no access to rainfall data with different durations, the fractal method is a suitable method for generating different rainfall durations and generating IDF curves with acceptable accuracy. be Also, the results showed that the jump of intensity-duration-frequency curves occurred under the effect of climate change in 2003, and in the period of climate change, compared to the period before climate change, the intensity of rainfall moved towards more intense rainfall, and this event occurred in the period Short-term returns show a greater increase. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
45 - Investigating the Effect of Changes in Frequency and Intensity of Daily Rainfall on its Annual and Seasonal Trends in Kurdistan province
Arash Ranjbar Niazali Ebrahimipak Arash TaftehBackground and purpose: Most of the studies that have been conducted in order to investigate the pattern of temporal and spatial changes of rainfall in rainfed areas have finally resulted in determining the trend of total annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall in the ta MoreBackground and purpose: Most of the studies that have been conducted in order to investigate the pattern of temporal and spatial changes of rainfall in rainfed areas have finally resulted in determining the trend of total annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall in the target areas. However, changes in the frequency and intensity of rainfall are among the important parameters that have a great impact on the trend of rainfall and the planning of rainfed areas. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of changes in the frequency and intensity of daily rainfall on the trend of annual and seasonal rainfall in Kurdistan province.Research method: For this purpose, the rainfall data of 30 years (1988 to 2017) of four synoptic stations of Sanandaj, Bijar, Qorveh, and Saqez, located in Kurdistan province, were used. After the data homogeneity test, the trend of changes in time series of frequency and amount of rainfall was calculated through the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator.Findings: The obtained results indicated a decreasing trend between 25 and 31% of total annual rainfall compared to the average of the studied period in four stations and this decrease was related to spring, summer, and winter seasons in most cases. The rainfall trend did not change significantly in the autumn season. Even though the trend of the rainy days in Sanandaj and Qorveh stations had a significant increase of 0.54 and 0.63 days per year, respectively, the results showed that this increase was related to spring rains which have had less intensity than five millimeters per day and cannot be very effective in providing water requirement. The noteworthy point was that the intensity of rainfall has decreased in all stations which is the main reason for the more than 40% decrease in the amount of rainfall during the spring and winter seasons of Sanandaj, Qorveh, and Saqez stations.Results: In general, increasing the frequency of low-intensity rains and decreasing the intensity of rains in rainfed areas can be a serious threat to reducing yield. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the changes in the frequency and intensity of rainfall, along with its values, in order to determine the distribution pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall in rainfed areas. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
46 - Comparison of Data Mining Models Performance in Rainfall Prediction Using Classification Approach (Case Study: Hamedan Airport Synoptic Weather Station)
Morteza Salehi Sarbijan Hamidreza DezfoulianBackground and Aim: Rainfall is one of the complex natural phenomena and one of the most crucial component of the water cycle, playing a significant role in assessing the climatic characteristics of each region. Understanding the amount and trends of rainfall changes is MoreBackground and Aim: Rainfall is one of the complex natural phenomena and one of the most crucial component of the water cycle, playing a significant role in assessing the climatic characteristics of each region. Understanding the amount and trends of rainfall changes is essential for effective management and more precise planning in agricultural, economic, and social sectors, as well as for studies related to runoff, droughts, groundwater status, and floods. Additionally, rainfall prediction in urban areas has a significant impact on traffic control, sewage flow, and construction activities. Method: The objective of this study is to compare the accuracy of classification models, including Chi-squared Automatic Interaction Detector (CHAID), C5 decision tree, Naive Bayes (NB), Quest tree, and Random Forest, k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) in predicting rainfall occurrence using 50 years of data from the synoptic station at Hamedan Airport. In this study, 80% of the data is used for training the models, and 20% for model validation and the results obtained from the model executions are compared using metrics such as confusion matrix, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and the Area Under the Curve (AUC) index. To create the classification variable for rainfall and non-rainfall data, based on rainfall data, the days of the year are categorized into two classes: days with rainfall (y) and days without rainfall (n). Data preprocessing is performed using Automatic Data Preprocessing (ADP). Then, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is employed to reduce the dimensions of the variables. Results: In this study, the PCA method reduces the dimensions of the variables to 5. Also, approximately 80% of the available data corresponds to rainless days, while 20% corresponds to rainy days. The research results indicated that the KNN model with an accuracy of 91.9% for training data and the SVM model with 89.13% for test data exhibit the best performance among the data mining models. The AUC index for the KNN model is 0.967 for training data and 0.935 for test data, while for the SVM algorithm, it is 0.967 for training data and 0.935 for test data. According to the ROC curve for Hamedan rainfall data, the KNN model outperforms other models. Considering the sensitivity index in the confusion matrix, the KNN and SVM models perform better in predicting non-rainfall occurrence for training data. In terms of the precipitation occurrence prediction, the RT and KNN models show better results according to the specificity index. Conclusion: The results demonstrated that for the RT, C5, ANN, SVM, BN, KNN, CHAID, QUEST, accuracy metrics was obtained 86.82%, 89.78%, 89.55%, 89.96%, 88.06%, 91.9%, 88.29%, 87.46%, 91.9%, respectively for training data. Moreover, for test data, the accuracy metrics for this model was obtained 83.82%, 87.9%, 88.12%, 89.13%, 87.12%, 89.13%, 87.12%, 88.19%, 86.93%, 86.76%, respectively. The AUC index in the training data for RT, C5, ANN, SVM, BN, KNN, CHAID QUEST models was 0.94%, 0.99%, 0.94%, 0.94%, 0.93%, 0.97%, 0.93%, 0.89%, respectively. In addition, for the test data, this metric was evaluated 0.89%, 0.89%, 0.93%, 0.94%, 0.92%, 0.90%, 0.92%, 0.88% respectively. As observed, considering accuracy metric and AUC index for training data KNN model and for test data SVM model were more sufficient in rainfall prediction. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
47 - Evaluation of temporal variation of splash erosion in different slopes and agricultural and forest land uses
Ashkan Yusefi Ahmad Farrokhian Firouzi Bijan Khalili MoghaddamSoil erosion is one of the major worldwide environmental challenges and its related destructive effects cannot be ignored at both inside and outside of a region. Splash and transport of soil particles by raindrops are the initiating mechanisms of water erosion. The obje MoreSoil erosion is one of the major worldwide environmental challenges and its related destructive effects cannot be ignored at both inside and outside of a region. Splash and transport of soil particles by raindrops are the initiating mechanisms of water erosion. The objective of this research was to investigate temporal variations of splash erosion in different slopes and land uses using a rainfall simulator. The experiment was conducted as factorial based on completely randomized design with three replicates. The experimental treatments were consist of slope at two levels (5 and 15%), duration of rainfall at four levels (5, 10, 15 and 20 minute) and different land uses (forest and agriculture).The results indicated that amount of splash increased with increasing rainfall duration. The amount of splash erosion of the 20-min rainfall duration was 2.08, 1.76 and 1.08 times more than of 5, 10 and 15-min, respectively. The average soil loss by splash erosion in agricultual and forest land uses was 29.37 and 25.56g.m-2, respectively. Furthermore, the results showed that as slope increased from 5 to 15% the amount of splash erosion increased 11%. In general, at all rainfall durations, splash erosion increased significantly with changes in slope steepness (from 5 to 15%) and land use from forest to agriculture, but there was no significant difference between the15 and 20-min rainfall durations. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
48 - Determination of effective parameters on climate production functions for rainfed barley and sensitive analysis at cold and semi-cold regions of Lorestan province
Alireza Tavakoli Abdolmajid Liaghat Amin AlizadehIdentifying of effective parameters and planning for their management and coordinating agronomic operation with trend changes of effective parameters leads to improving production baseline and prediction for future. Plant growth and crop production under rainfed is a fu MoreIdentifying of effective parameters and planning for their management and coordinating agronomic operation with trend changes of effective parameters leads to improving production baseline and prediction for future. Plant growth and crop production under rainfed is a function of changes in climatic factors. In order to determination of climate-yield production functions, analyzed eight crop seasons data (1998-2006) of 25 climate parameters and rainfed barley grain yields of four cold and semi-cold regions of Lorestan province. These regions were including Aleshtar, Khoram-Abad, Aligodarz and Boroujerd. By path analysis method, correlation coefficient separated to direct and indirect effects. Results showed that in local and common models of production functions, the role of crop season vapor pressure deficit is very important. The local models necessary small input data but common model need more input data. Rain water productivity of all regions determined for eight crop seasons, and amounts of maximum, minimum and average of rain water productivity were 0.3, 0.15 and 0.224 kg per cubic precipitation, which its average was 6 percent lower than national average (0.239 kg.m-3). The maximum temperature, sunshine, absolute maximum temperature and crop season vapor pressure deficit parameters were the most sensitive parameters on grain yield prediction. We conducted the climate-yield models are useful tools to predict rainfed barley yield and so to assist managers and farmers for making decisions in rainfed agronomic activity under climate parameters changes. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
49 - Derivation of rainfall IDF curves from daily data in saveh hydro-meteorological station
Alireza Zamani NooriOne of the most important parameters for design of hydraulic constructions is standard project storm which is derived from IDF curves for specific durations and return periods. The previous methods to estimate IDF curves are time consuming. In addition, they r MoreOne of the most important parameters for design of hydraulic constructions is standard project storm which is derived from IDF curves for specific durations and return periods. The previous methods to estimate IDF curves are time consuming. In addition, they required many input parameters that tend to reduce their reliability. In previous methods, rainfall data should be recorded in different durations to extract the IDF curves. In some regions, only 24-hour rainfall data are recorded that they cannot build the IDF curves. In this study, temporal scaling properties of rainfall were used to extract the IDF curves for short durations from daily rainfall data. The used method has less complex stages and less number of parameters compares to previous methods. The proposed method was used in Saveh hydro-meteorological station as a case study and the results indicated its reasonable accuracy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
50 - Enhancement of flood warning system performance using stochastic rainfall threshold curve
Ahmad SharafatiFlood warning systems are the important and effective approaches to prevention or mitigation life and property loss in any flood event. All flood warning systems use one or more flood event indicator such as climatological signals. Rainfall threshold curve is one the co MoreFlood warning systems are the important and effective approaches to prevention or mitigation life and property loss in any flood event. All flood warning systems use one or more flood event indicator such as climatological signals. Rainfall threshold curve is one the conventional flood events indicator in many flood warning systems. In this respect, observed or forecasted rainfall was compared with rainfall threshold to notify flood event. Application of some assumptions like constant rainfall patterns and rainfall-runoff model parameters such as loss and base flow is known as the main drawback of using conventional rainfall threshold curves. This study has considered uncertainties of rainfall-runoff model parameters and variables for extracting rainfall threshold curve, while solving shortcomings of the previous works. Results of this study demonstrated that extraction of the rainfall threshold curves by considering uncertainties of the mentioned variables and parameters represents a very higher accuracy respect to conventional rainfall threshold curves. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
51 - Determining the Monthly Wet and Dry Regimes Using Angot Precipitation Index in Ardabil Station
Roghayeh Asiabi-hir Raoof Mostafazadeh Saied NabaviBackground and Objective: Drought is the main causes of socioeconomic and environmental issues and the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation has a great influence on water resources availability. The Angot Precipitation Index (ratio between the average value MoreBackground and Objective: Drought is the main causes of socioeconomic and environmental issues and the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation has a great influence on water resources availability. The Angot Precipitation Index (ratio between the average values of multiannual of precipitation over wet and dry periods) is an indicator to determine the precipitation variations. The API highlights the climate significance of every month to detect dry or rainy regime.Material and Methodology: This study aims to assess and calculation of API in analysis of dry-wet periods of monthly precipitation in Ardabil station. The API values were calculated based on average daily values of precipitation in a year. Based on API values, dry and wet months were identified and the relationship between API and monthly precipitation characteristics according to Pearson correlation coefficient.Findings: According to the results, the value of API was 2.33 for the May month as a wet month and the November and April months are determined as normal precipitation regime (1.65 and 1.57 values, respectively) and other months have been classified into dry months as the API is less than the unity. Also, the API had a negative correlation with precipitation coefficient of variation (R2=0.408), and a positive correlation is exist between average monthly precipitation amounts and the API (R2=0.998).Discussion and Conclusion: The maximum API index value was observed in November and May months. The results indicated that the amount of Angot index was inversely correlated with coefficient of variations; while a direct relationship is exist with average monthly precipitations. Application of Angot index allows the determination of monthly precipitation regime on the basis of the vale ranges of the calculated index. Comparing the results of other drought indices in determining wet and dry months in climatic zones of Iran needs further investigations. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
52 - Potential Expected Climate Change Impact on Persian Gulf Coastal Mangrove Ecosystems Based on Temperature and Precipitation Variables
Hana Etemadi Hossein DelshabBackground and Objective: Climate change and global warming are one of the most widespread and important environmental hazards. The purpose of this study is to investigate the trend of minimum, maximum and rainfall temperatures in the past period of Bushehr as a coastal MoreBackground and Objective: Climate change and global warming are one of the most widespread and important environmental hazards. The purpose of this study is to investigate the trend of minimum, maximum and rainfall temperatures in the past period of Bushehr as a coastal province of the Persian Gulf and predict its climatic future by the end of 2100 AD, as well as the possible effects on the mangrove forest ecosystems of the Persian Gulf. Method: In this research, the statistical down scaling model (SDSM) along with two different GCMs entitle CanESM2 in three RCP2.6, RCP4.5 RCP8.5 scenarios and HadCM3 in A2 scenario, were used to simulate climatic variables during base (1961-2005), current and future (2010–2099) periods in Bushehr synoptic station. Furthermore, model evaluation and uncertainty assessment performed by five different statistical criteria and a non-parametric bootstrapping technique, respectively. Findings: The linear regression of the observed winter and summer mean temperature showed that mean temperature has increased +1.8 and +1.7°C over the past 47 years, respectively. Both, CanESM2 and HadCM3 model simulation results demonstrated that the most raise of minimum and maximum temperatures will occur in the future cold seasons. But, CanESM2 simulation analysis revealed that a decrease trend will occur in the minimum and maximum temperatures through future warm months. Also, HadCM3 simulation results showed that precipitation will rise in summer and fall seasons, while CanESM2 results presented an increase in rainfall variable throughout the year. Discussion and Conclusion: Both of models have predicted warmer winter in the next several decades. Based on CanESM2 model results that we will have longer warmer seasons, there is a possibility of prolonging reproduction (germination and flowering) season in Persian Gulf mangroves from 3 to 6 months. Based on our results, future rainfall is more likely to become more frequent and intense. If those precipitations do not occur in extreme events, accompany with high temperature can cause more mangrove expansion and growth in future decades. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
53 - Effects of Global Warming and Climate Changes on Economic Growth (Case Study: Iran provinces during 2002-2012)
Hossein panahi Najmeh Esmaeel DarjaniBackground and Objective: Global warming and climate changes are currently one of the most important environmental challenges in the world, which are the consequences of rising temperatures, melting polar ice caps, rising free water levels and changes in climate thresho MoreBackground and Objective: Global warming and climate changes are currently one of the most important environmental challenges in the world, which are the consequences of rising temperatures, melting polar ice caps, rising free water levels and changes in climate thresholds.Method: The present paper has studied temperature and rain effects as climate changes and global warming on real economic growth by using panel data method in provinces in the period of 2002 to 2012.Findings: Climate change affects the economic sectors of the country and this impact on the sectors that are more interrelated with the agricultural sector. It is noteworthy that due to temperature and precipitation trends in recent years in the provinces of Iran, which do not show a favorable trend.Discussion and Conclusion: The results show that air temperature has a negative relationship with economic growth and is significant at the level of 5% and the amount of precipitation shows a positive and significant relationship at the level of 5% with the economic growth variable. With increasing global warming and climate changes, the economic growth of Iran's provinces is declining. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
54 - Assessing Spatial-Temporal Changes of Rainfall Variability Indices in Ardabil Province Rain gauge stations
hamed amini Raoof Mostafazadeh Mohammad AhmadiBackground and Objective: The rainfall is one of the main elements of the climate in each region. One of the characteristics of arid and semi-arid regions is a low rainfall with high fluctuations. Hence, changes in rainfall patterns, including spatial and temporal chang MoreBackground and Objective: The rainfall is one of the main elements of the climate in each region. One of the characteristics of arid and semi-arid regions is a low rainfall with high fluctuations. Hence, changes in rainfall patterns, including spatial and temporal changes in rainfall, are of particular importance. The patterns of rainfall distribution, determine the rainfall during the time. The purpose of the present study was to investigate spatial and temporal changes of rainfall variability indices in the gauge stations of Ardabil province.Material and Methods: In this study to determine the rainfall variability from the monthly rainfall with a 24-year period from the year of 1989 to 2013 (based on current statistics) in the watersheds of Ardabil province has been used. In order to calculate the quantitative variability of rainfall in the studied stations, Shannon, Simpson, Index of variability, rainfall variability index (RVI), MCIntosh, Berger-Parker, Rainfall anomaly Index (RAI) were used. After calculating these indices, the spatial variations of the indices at the studied stations were performed using the interpolation methods and the Inverse Distance Weighting method in the Arc Map software, and also the non-parametric Mann-Kendall method was used to determine the temporal variation of the values of rainfall variability indices.Findings: According to the results of the interpolation of these indices, the spatial variations of the Simpson, Index of Variability, McIntosh and the Berger-Parker indices are similar to the one in which the high variation values in the eastern regions include stations of Aladizgeh, Namin, Niaraq, Abi Beiglu and Khosh Abad and the northern part of the province are observed.Discussion and Conclusion: In general, it can be said that regions of the province, in the proximity of the provinces of Gilan and East Azerbaijan, have more variability in rainfall values due to the impact of the air masses and rainfall of the Caspian and Mediterranean fronts. Also, the results of the trend test indicated a significant increase in rainfall variability indices that could lead to a change in the seasonal distribution pattern of rainfall values in different months and the results show similar behavior in most of the indices. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
55 - Synoptic Analysis of Mashhad Severe Thunderstorms
framarz khoshakhlagh mohammad hasan mahoutchiIntroduction: Thunderstorms are one of the most destructive weather phenomena, and knowing the mechanism, development, and development of such storms can be of particular help in counteracting and mitigating the damage. Methodology: In the present study, thunderstorms MoreIntroduction: Thunderstorms are one of the most destructive weather phenomena, and knowing the mechanism, development, and development of such storms can be of particular help in counteracting and mitigating the damage. Methodology: In the present study, thunderstorms with rainfall of more than 10 mm of Mashhad synoptic station in a 61-year statistical period (2010-1901) have been investigated. Thus, first the codes related to the occurrence of the thunderstorm phenomenon and then the precipitation of more than 10 mm related to the mentioned phenomenon were extracted and then the daily data of the average sea level pressure from the series of retrieved data series. NCEP / NCAR were harvested within 12 days. Finally, with the method of basic component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis, sea level rotation patterns that played a role in the formation of thunderstorms were classified. Results and Discussion: The study showed that thunderstorms of the Mashhad region, has been created by two general patterns. The first pattern, in the SLP, formed the cell of the monsoon system over the country advocated hot and humid air needed for thunderstorm by motion of cyclonic and at the upper levels (850 and 500 hpa) the trough of westerly winds is located over the studied area that led to the thunderstorms occurrence. In The second pattern, the Sudan system expanded from southwest toward northeast and then passed over the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, that led the humid advection into the study area and at the upper levels (850 and 500 hpa) trough of westerly winds is located over the studied area that provided dynamic rise and consequently led to thunderstorms. In both precipitation pattern, main source of moisture was the South Seas and the major factor of uplifting was the western trough. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
56 - Climate Change Impact on Extreme Rainfalls in Arid Region of Iran
Mohammad Reza Khazaei hadis khazaee bahram saghafianBackground and Objective: One of the major impacts on climate changes is change in extreme precipitation regime in the future, which have to be predicted to counteract the harmful effects of climate change. In this paper, climate change impact is assessed on extreme rai MoreBackground and Objective: One of the major impacts on climate changes is change in extreme precipitation regime in the future, which have to be predicted to counteract the harmful effects of climate change. In this paper, climate change impact is assessed on extreme rainfalls in arid regions of Iran. Method: Future scenarios are downscaled using the NSRP model. Long-term daily rainfall series are generated for current climate and future scenarios. By comparing the distribution of extreme daily rainfalls for current and future conditions, the impacts of climate change on extreme rainfalls are assessed. In downscaling method, a wide range of statistics of large-scale scenarios has been transferred to downscaled scenarios. The understudying stations are in Bam, Zahedan, Tehran and Yazd synoptic stations as representatives of the arid regions of Iran. Findings: Validation results indicate that the performance of this method in simulating daily rainfall series and distribution of extreme rainfall is acceptable. Results for most of stations and scenarios show that intensity of extreme daily rainfalls will increase in the future while average rainfall will decrease. As instance, in Yazd, extreme rainfall of 50 years return period would increase between 14 to 58 percent, while the average precipitation will change between +3 to -20 percent. Discussion and Conclusion: These results indicate that the precipitation situation in arid areas of Iran will worsen in the future. Therefore, more extensive investments and taking preventive activities to adapt to climate change is essential. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
57 - Investigation of Synoptic Conditions coincided with the Occurrence of West and Southwest Floods on March 31 and April 1, 2019
mahdi khazaei Amir Hossain nikfalBackground and Objective: The purpose of this study is to identify and investigate the synoptic systems that led to the extensive and destructive flood events in the west and southwest of the country on March 31 and April 1, 2019. Method: In order to study the synoptic MoreBackground and Objective: The purpose of this study is to identify and investigate the synoptic systems that led to the extensive and destructive flood events in the west and southwest of the country on March 31 and April 1, 2019. Method: In order to study the synoptic conditions in coincided with the event of heavy rainfall leading to the floods, in addition to using NOAA18 satellite images, sea level pressure data, sea level specific humidity, geopotential height and omega at pressure level 850, 700 and 500 hPa, Relative humidity pressure at 700 hPa, U and V component from pressure 1000 to 200 hPa with a resolution of 2.5 ° to 2.5° latitude from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP / NCAR) Received and the maps were plotted. Findings: Existence of a deep cyclone at sea level pressure to 500 hPa pressure from eastern Mediterranean to western of Iran and also the establishment of a subtropical jet stream with meridian direction (southwest - northeast) in the southwest and west of the country and finally the intense vertical shear of horizontal wind from sea level pressure to 200 hPa in the study area, It is known as the main factors of cause of instability in the west and southwest of the country. existence Specific humidity of 14 to 18 g / kg at sea level pressure and relative humidity of 95 to 100% at a pressure of 700 hPa have also been identified as suitable moisture conditions in the study area. Discussion and Conclusion: The results of this study show that on March 31 and April 1, 2019, the atmosphere of the western and southwestern regions of the country in all depths of the troposphere layer experienced severe instability due to the establishment eastern part of a deep cyclone. Above the cyclone mentioned above, located meridional flows of subtropical jet stream which has intensificated the instability to the depth of the tropospheric layer. Also moisture advection from the western Arabian Sea, the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf has caused form cells from thick convective clouds throughout the west and southwest of the country. The heavy rains resulting from these convective clouds have caused severe and extensive floods in this area of the country. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
58 - Zoning of the degree of risk in the southern areas of Khuzestan province in the conditions Climate change with emphasis on industrial infrastructure
Arash Rahimi Reza Borna jafar Morshedi Jebreel GhorbanianBackground and Objective: climate change can be considered one of the biggest environmental challenges of the recent era, which indicates unusual changes in the internal climate of the earth's atmosphere and its consequences in different parts of the globe, which is a s MoreBackground and Objective: climate change can be considered one of the biggest environmental challenges of the recent era, which indicates unusual changes in the internal climate of the earth's atmosphere and its consequences in different parts of the globe, which is a serious threat to the environment. The purpose of this research is to prepare a vulnerability zoning map of infrastructures in the southern regions of Khuzestan in the conditions of climate change. Material and Methodology: for this purpose, using previous sources and interviews with experts, eleven variables of total annual precipitation, average temperature of hot and cold season, the trend of maximum precipitation of more than 5 mm per day, the number of dust codes, the occurrence of heat waves above the 95th percentile, precipitation changes, displacement of coastline, underground water changes, floods and inundation and temperature changes during 2019 to 2019 were investigated. By using two trend analysis tests, i.e. Sence slope estimator trend analysis test and Mann-Kendall trend analysis test, the trend of the 32-year time series of these elements during the basic statistical period (1985-2017) was investigated. Findings: The southern parts of the studied region of Khuzestan had an average temperature of more than 38 degrees Celsius per year, while the northern and central parts of the studied region had a temperature of more than 38.5 degrees Celsius per year.The southern part of Khuzestan has an annual rainfall equivalent to more than 273 mm per year, while the southern parts of the studied area have less than 200 mm of rainfall per year and in some cases about 156 mm per year. Discussion and Conclusion: The results show that high and very high risk areas cover 80% of the region. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
59 - Exploration of Randomness Characteristic of Rainfall Pattern Using RDP Model in Symareh Catchment.
Ahmad Sharafti Mohammad Reza KhazaeiBackground and Objective: Rainfall pattern is one of the most important and effective variable in flood simulation. Variation of rainfall intensity in each event is illustrated by rainfall pattern. Many random variable cause the stochastic property of rainfall pattern. MoreBackground and Objective: Rainfall pattern is one of the most important and effective variable in flood simulation. Variation of rainfall intensity in each event is illustrated by rainfall pattern. Many random variable cause the stochastic property of rainfall pattern. According to the relation between rainfall pattern and flood, uncertainty of flood is related to the variability of rainfall pattern. Method: In this study, the RDP (Rainfall Data Processor), is used to quantify randomness characteristic of rainfall pattern in Symareh catchment. Findings: The obtain result shown, the Brust factor in rainfall events with long time duration and more depth is less than others. Also, more than 60 percent of observed events in Symareh catchment are belong to type 1 and 2 categories. Discussionand Conclusion the obtained result shown, the fraction of cumulative rainfall depth has not the same pattern. Also, the minimum uncertainty are related to the rainfall patterns that belong to the type 2 and has less depth and also more duration. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
60 - Modeling of Precipitation-Elevation Spatial Relationships in the Northeast of Iran by Using the GWR Model
Mokhtar Karami Elham KadkhodaBackground and Objective: Precipitation is one of the most variable climatic parameters. These changes occur both in terms of location and time in terms of the region's climate. This study was conducted to model the spatial relationships of seasonal rainfall in the nort MoreBackground and Objective: Precipitation is one of the most variable climatic parameters. These changes occur both in terms of location and time in terms of the region's climate. This study was conducted to model the spatial relationships of seasonal rainfall in the northeast of the country with a joint monthly statistical period of 30 years (1980-2010). Method: In order to achieve spatial variation of rainfall, new methods of spatial statistics such as spatial autocorrelation, global Moran, spatial dispersion index and geographic weight regression model (GWR) were used in GIS software. Findings: The results of this study showed that rainfall changes in northeastern Iran have a high cluster pattern or positive. The Global Moran Index for each of the four seasons and the annual sum is above 0.93, the highest Global Moran index with the value of 0032191 is for the summer season. Discussion & Conclusion: The results of the GWR model showed that rainfall in the northern parts of the study area had positive spatial auto-correlation and in the southern parts, which are mostly desert areas had negative spatial auto-correlation. Also, the results of dispersion data were the result of cluster pattern of precipitation in the northeast of the country. Based on the frequency index of clusters or the ICF, the winter season is the largest cluster with a numerical value of 2646.26 in Northeast of the country. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
61 - Stochastic Generation of Rainfall Pattern with RPG Model
Ahmad Sharafti Bagher ZahabiyounIntroduction: The existence of random variables is the major reason for uncertainty in floodmodeling. One of the major random variables that can affect the shape of flood hydrographs is stormpattern among others. Storm pattern include duration, depth and time distributi MoreIntroduction: The existence of random variables is the major reason for uncertainty in floodmodeling. One of the major random variables that can affect the shape of flood hydrographs is stormpattern among others. Storm pattern include duration, depth and time distribution for any eventproducing its corresponding flood event. Therefore, uncertainty analysis of flood modelingdepends on uncertainty analyses of those effective variables of storm pattern.Material and method: RPG model is introduced and it used of Monte Carlo simulation andBootstrap Resampling to generate rainfall pattern on Seymareh catchment.Result and discussion: Result of this paper show that 90 percent of observed rainfall duration and 98percent of observed rainfall pattern exit in generated RPG band. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
62 - Simulation of Rainfall-Runoff for Gharesou Watershed Using SWAT Model
Mohammadreza Goodarzi Bagher Zahabiyoun Alireza Massah BavaniBackground and Objective: Rainfall-runoff Simulation is very important in many hydrological studies, such as investigating the effects of climate change on river flow, flood prediction and planning of water resources. SWAT model was used to simulate stream flow transpor MoreBackground and Objective: Rainfall-runoff Simulation is very important in many hydrological studies, such as investigating the effects of climate change on river flow, flood prediction and planning of water resources. SWAT model was used to simulate stream flow transport, sediment and quality variables (nitrogen and phosphorus...) in the watershed areas. SWAT model is a distributed time series model with physical basis. This model has an ability to connect to GIS, in a way that vast volumes of data as information layers such as land use, soil map and the DEM using GIS capabilities are used by the model. The main purpose of this study is testing SWAT model performance as a simulator of flow at the catchment scale. Method: This study attempts to prepare a model for Gharesou catchment. Moreover, the parameters were optimized using SWAT-CUP optimizer. Findings: The model was calibrated for the years 1992-1996 and validated for the years 1998-2000. The coefficient of determination (R2) for monthly flow was equal to 0.82 and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (Ens) was equal to 0.8 in the calibration period while in the validation period these coefficients were 0.77 and 0.73, respectively. Conclusion: These results indicate the success of the SWAT model, using optimized parameters, for the stream flow simulation in Gharesou catchment. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
63 - The study of relation between aerosols and quality of rain water over Tehran during 2012-2013 years
Dina Abdemanafi Amir-Hussain Meshkatee Sohrab Hajjam Majid VazifedoustBackground and Objective: Precipitation is one of the most efficient mechanisms for washing the atmospheric pollutants, specifically particulate ones out.The study chemistry of rain water was shown pollutions in atmosphere. Method: Accordingly, to do that 16 rain MoreBackground and Objective: Precipitation is one of the most efficient mechanisms for washing the atmospheric pollutants, specifically particulate ones out.The study chemistry of rain water was shown pollutions in atmosphere. Method: Accordingly, to do that 16 rainwater samples from two Mehrabad and Aghdasieh synoptic stations collected during the autumn and winter of 2012 and spring of 2013 (the city rainy seasons). Concentrations of major inorganic ions () and pH in bulk precipitation samples collected in the Tehran city of I.R. of Iran were analyzed. In this article, Enrichment Factors, Correlation Analysis and Principal Component Analysis had been used in order to identify the sources of ions found in sampled rain waters. Findings: Results show that concentrations of the found substances were higher over the Mehrabad station. The mean concentration of ions indicated that,, and were the main anions, while ,, were the main cations. anion had important role in acidity of the rain water. The Bicarbonate anion had the highest concentration, among all other ions, over both stations and plays an important role in reduction of the acidity of the rain water. Study upon the potential sources of the ions over Tehran by means of Correlation Analysis, Enrichment Factor and Principle Component Analysis indicate that existence of Qom salt lake and desert in the south of the city were the main source of the and. There are anthropogenic sources for. The other ions were from anthropogenic and dust origin. Discussion and Conclusion: The pollutants in rainwater over Tehran were derived from long range and local (industry and traffic) sources. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
64 - Climate Modeling in Tehran & Mazandaran Provinces by LARSWG and Comparing Changes in Northern and Southern Central Alborz hillside
Nafise Haghtalab Mohsen Goodarzi Majid Habibi Nokhandan Ahmad Reza Yavari Hamid Reza JafariAbstractIn recent decades increasing the green house gases caused damage to the Earth climate balance whichis named Climate Change. Most important effects are increasing in mean temperature, flood, storm,hail and sea levels. In this article, synoptic stations in Mazanda MoreAbstractIn recent decades increasing the green house gases caused damage to the Earth climate balance whichis named Climate Change. Most important effects are increasing in mean temperature, flood, storm,hail and sea levels. In this article, synoptic stations in Mazandaran and Tehran provinces isinvestigated from 1988 to 2005 and by LARS-WG modeling and by downscaling GCM data which ispredicted for 2010-2039. The main purpose of this research was comparing changes between Northernand Sothern hillside of Central Alborz Mountain. Finally, according to the rain and temperatureincensement in both provinces, development of deserts happens and this negative expanding in theSouthern side of Alborz will be more extensive. Also, heavy rain falls may increase in both sides, butin Mazandaran more sever rain fall will occur and in Tehran rain fall will happen in short period oftimes and more frequently. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
65 - Evaluation of drought in South Khorasan province (Iran) using normal precipitation index (PNPI) and standardized method index (Z)
Mohammad Hossein Jahangir Mohammad SaraniradBackground and Objective: Drought is among the natural disasters which happens in a long period of time and intermittently makes problems for human societies and consequently the economy through negative effects on water resources and agriculture compared to other natur MoreBackground and Objective: Drought is among the natural disasters which happens in a long period of time and intermittently makes problems for human societies and consequently the economy through negative effects on water resources and agriculture compared to other natural phenomena. Thus, the basic step in drought studies is to select appropriate indicators for each area based on severity, duration and magnitude of drought in the study area. The aim of this study is to select appropriate indicators to classify and determine the degree of severity of the drought and wet and to identify the drought prone regions in South Khorasan province for planning and better management of drought. The values of drought severity were calculated by the desired index for each station using Matlab software. Then, based on the tables for each index, the drought and wet intensities were determined. Method: In this study, the situation of drought in South Khorasan province was evaluated using the drought index, weather percent of normal precipitation (PNPI) and standard methods of index (Z). Since most stations do not cover the long-term (30 years) statistics of precipitation data, the available stations with the precipitation data for period of 24 years (2014- 1990) were used. Findings: PNPI index results showed that among the studied stations, Khor Birjand stations with 5 months, Boshrooyeh, Ghain and Ferdous stations with 4 months and Birjand and Nehbandan stations with 3 months has the longest wet period. Drought is in the range of moderate drought to moderate humidity in most stations. The highest Z (wet 1/84) belongs to Nehbandan station in March and most of the stations experience moderate drought in June, July, August, September and October. Discussion and Conclusion: The two methods show that the drought is in the range of moderate drought to moderate humidity in most of the stations. According to the results of hypothesis evaluation, the drought has been very severe and has led to occurrence of minimum annual precipitation. In this study, PNPI index was found to be a more appropriate index for the region. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
66 - Analyzing and Monitoring the Meteorological Droughts in the Region of Sistan and Balouchestan
Hamid Zare Abianeh Aliakbar Sabziparvar Safar Marofi Fereshte Ghiyami Sayede Shaghayegh Mirmasoud Azade KazemiIn this research, analyzing the meteorological drought is performed by using of five commonly usedindices including: Rainfall Standard Index (ZI), Deviation from Mean Index (SDI), Percent of NormalPrecipitation Index (PNPI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) and Precipitatio MoreIn this research, analyzing the meteorological drought is performed by using of five commonly usedindices including: Rainfall Standard Index (ZI), Deviation from Mean Index (SDI), Percent of NormalPrecipitation Index (PNPI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) and Precipitation Classification range (PC)on seasonal and yearly precipitation data in the four synoptic stations of Zahedan, Zabol, Chabaharand Iranshahr, using the same period starting from 1964 and ending to 2005. The result showed thatSDI method performs more reliable estimation compared with PNPI, ZI, RAI methods in the annualand seasonal time scales. Based on SDI method, Sistan and Balouchestan Province has experiencedfrequent meteorological drought in both seasonal and annual time scales. In annual time scale, thefrequency (percent) of intense and severe droughts was smaller than frequency of mild and mediumdroughts. In the seasonal time scale, on average, based on SDI method, most (42%) of severe andintense droughts occurred in summer, but in winter, the risk of severe and intense droughts wassmaller (12%), We also used 3-year and 5-year moving averages method for evaluation of trends anddrought duration in the annually time scale in the mentioned sites. The results showed that the rainfallstandard index (RAI) performs different results from other indices. Other results also indicate that theintensity and frequency of meteorological drought are increasing in this province Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
67 - Daily Stream Flow Simulation in a Data-Poor Basin
Mohammad Reza Khazaei Bagher Zahabiyoun Bahram SaghafianIntroduction: Rainfall-runoff modeling is one of the keystones of scientific hydrology andenvironmental management. Therefore the researchers continuously try to find new approaches forimprovement of existing models or modeling methodologies.Material and Methods: In thi MoreIntroduction: Rainfall-runoff modeling is one of the keystones of scientific hydrology andenvironmental management. Therefore the researchers continuously try to find new approaches forimprovement of existing models or modeling methodologies.Material and Methods: In this paper, daily stream flow at the outlet of a watershed in southwesternIran was simulated using a conceptual continuous rainfall-runoff model. In encountering with theproblem of poor quality data, required data such as runoff, rainfall and PET were prepared using aspecific approach.Results and Discussion: The results showed that the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 0.80 and thecoefficient of determination was 0.82 during calibration and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 0.83and the coefficient of determination was 0.83 during validation. Furthermore statistics of observedstream flow were preserved in simulated stream flow. The results showed that this approach issuccessfully applicable for daily rainfall-runoff modeling when the quality of the input data is notadequate Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
68 - The case study of impacts of Tehran ambient air pollution on the cloud and precipitation characteristics
Dina Abdemanafi Sohrab Hajjam Amir-Hussain Meshkatee Majid VazifedoustBackground and Objective: Concentration and type of atmospheric aerosols are among of the most important factors affecting the macro and micro structure of clouds and their precipitation. Method: In this article, the case study has been carried out to investigate the r MoreBackground and Objective: Concentration and type of atmospheric aerosols are among of the most important factors affecting the macro and micro structure of clouds and their precipitation. Method: In this article, the case study has been carried out to investigate the relationship between atmospheric air pollution, microphysics of cloud and their precipitation over Tehran city. The case study in this paper (2012/12/06) was performed before the the rainfall that increased AQI index for particulate matter which made Tehran to be closed for two days. This event was compared with two similar rainfalls shortly before or after it and it was found out that in the two similar rainfalls the AQI index had been healthy during the days before precipitation. Ion concentrations in the rainwater were measured by ion-chromatography and microphysics of clouds were studied by MODIS on board Aqua and Terra satellite. Findings: The results showed that ions concentration, especially anthropogenic ions (nitrate, nitrite, chloride and fluoride), in rainwater samples in polluted air was higher than in clear air. Also particulate pollution reduced the effective radius droplet of the mixed-phase clouds before the rain, and increased the cloud optical thickness, cloud water path and cloud top pressure and temperature during the precipitation. Discussion and Conclusion: The ions in rain water and the cloud microphysics characteristics related to the concentration of aerosols in the atmosphere. Also, local particle pollutions changed regional microphysics of cloud Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
69 - Phylogeny and genetic diversity of Indian crested porcupine (Hystrix indica) based on mtDNA cytochrome b in Fars province
AliReza Sahraeian Jahromi Jalil Imani Harsini Hamidreza rezaeiBackground and Objective: In recent years, Hystrix indica as the biggest rodent in Iran has been in conflict with humans regarding the destruction of gardens and agricultural products, and the population of this species has been decreased due to illegal hunting and the MoreBackground and Objective: In recent years, Hystrix indica as the biggest rodent in Iran has been in conflict with humans regarding the destruction of gardens and agricultural products, and the population of this species has been decreased due to illegal hunting and the use of pesticides and chemical poisons. Meanwhile there is not effective information which provide the possibility of developing a management and conservation plan for this species, so the aim of this study is to investigate the structure and genetic diversity of Hystrix indica in Fars province habitats. Material and Methodology: 15 quill and tissue samples of this species were collected in the Fars province habitats. After DNA extraction, mitochondrial cytochrome b gene was amplified in 13 samples by polymerase chain reaction and 912 nucleotide pairs of this gene were sequenced and edited for each sample. Findings: Based on the Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Phylogenetic Tree, all the studied samples are related to the same clade and belong to Hystrix indica species. Among the studied samples, only two different haplotypes were identified and the haplotype diversity was equal to 0.282 and the nucleotide diversity was estimated to be 0.00029. Discussion and Conclusion: the results showed that haplotype diversity of Hystrix indica is low in Fars province, so it is suggested to avoid further environmental crises like disruption of its food chain, while conducting demographic studies in order to develop a conservation and management plan for this species. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
70 - Etymology of Comparative Interpretation Method by Najjarzadgan in Interpretive Heritage
Ensiyeh Asgari Interpretive works called “comparative interpretation” increase remarkably in last decades while research interpretation has not grown equally. One the important issues is the comparison method which needs to be known and recognized. This research stud More Interpretive works called “comparative interpretation” increase remarkably in last decades while research interpretation has not grown equally. One the important issues is the comparison method which needs to be known and recognized. This research studies comparison method specifically in Najjarzadgan works. His method involves three stages of quotation, expression and ideas criticism. Since the mentioned stages form the general criteria of interpretive texts, an etymology could be done on his method. The present research studies fourth and sixth centuries which are known as historical turning point. The results show that Najjarzadgan method goes back to traditional interpretations and his works developed gradually by considering some preferences. Quotation and expression of ideas are developed based on documentaries; but arbitration and decision making are done with the same tools and basics. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
71 - تأثیر بارش مغزی بر راهبردهای مقابلهای و خلاقیت دانشآموزان
امینه احمدی معصومه صمدی -
Open Access Article
72 - تحلیل آسیبپذیری شهرهای کشور از شاخصهای حدی بارشی در دوره (2010-1981)
حمیده دالایی منوچهر فرج زاده امیر گندم کار محمد حسن نامی -
Open Access Article
73 - A Study of the Discourse of Political Islam and Genealogy of Islamism
Javad Bostan Afrooz Hamed Mohagheghnia Ruhollah Shahabi Fraidoon AkbarzadehThe purpose of the present study is to review the discourse of political Islam and genealogy of Islamism. The research method is descriptive-analytic and Laclau and Mouffe’s discourse theory has been used. The results indicate that political Islam is a discourse a MoreThe purpose of the present study is to review the discourse of political Islam and genealogy of Islamism. The research method is descriptive-analytic and Laclau and Mouffe’s discourse theory has been used. The results indicate that political Islam is a discourse among Muslims which represents a special formulation of society and politics focusing on the signifier of Islam and it attempts to emphasize on Islam from a political perspective, not within a merely religious hemisphere. It also seeks to turn Islam into the best signifier for Islamic community discourse. Determination of signifiers of Islamic discourse is a battlefield between western modernity and Islamism. For determination of the signifiers of political Islam, intellectual, social, and movement approaches have been used; however, the discourse approach has a more extensive and flexible potential to explain movements in Islamic communities. Among formulations in this discourse, democratic political Islam versus some new categories such as democracy, election, government, and policy-making has attempted to redefine various signs in traditional political Islam including the role of council, consultation, enjoining good and forbidding evil, Jihad, economic justice, the status of non-Muslims and women in Islamic society. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
74 - Study the effect of some different Environmental factors on dispersal of dominant broadleaf weeds in irrigated wheat fields.
Omid Lotfifar سمانه متقی hamid Mostafavi Seyed Mehdi MirtaheriThis research was conducted to study the 7 common broadleaves dispersal of irrigated wheat fields in response to some environmental factors. Research data were obtained from sampling of weed communities and using weed dispersal maps (produced by GIS). The effects of env MoreThis research was conducted to study the 7 common broadleaves dispersal of irrigated wheat fields in response to some environmental factors. Research data were obtained from sampling of weed communities and using weed dispersal maps (produced by GIS). The effects of environmental factors (climates, soil order and annual mean of soil temperature, rainfall and evaporation) on dispersal of dominant weed were studied. Result showed the effect of studied factors on each weed dispersal was different. The highest dispersal of Descurainia sophia was observed in semiarid climate, 250-500mm rainfall, 0-6°C soil temperature, 3500-4000 mm evaporation, eridisols soil and 1600-1800 m elevation. The highest Galium tricornatum dispersal was observed in wet climate, 1000-1250 mm rainfall, 6-12°C soil temperature, 1500-2000 mm evaporation, inceptisol soil and 1800-2000 m elevation. Cardaria draba in wet climate, 50-250 mm rainfall, 0-6°C soil temperature, 1500-2000 mm evaporation, aridisol soil and 2600-2800 m elevation had highest dispersal. The highest dispersal of Polygonum aviculare was observed in sever-arid soil, 50-250 rainfall, 12-18°C soil temperature, 2000-2500mm evaporation, aridisol soil and 2400-2600m elevation. Alhagi psudalhagi in arid soil, 50-250mm rainfall, 18-24°C soil temperature, 2000-2500mm evaporation, aridisol soil and 1000-1200m elevation had the highest dispersal. The highest dispersal of Carthamus oxycantha was observed in 50-250mm rainfall, 6-30°C soil temperature, 2500-3000mm rainfall, entisol soil and 200-400m elevation. Also the highest Convovulus arvensis dispersal was observed in moderate semiarid climate, 250-500mm rainfall, 6-12°C soil temperature, 1000-4000mm evaporation, inseptisol soil and 2600-2800m elevation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
75 - Efficiency of instruction based on the effects of cognitive load on the experimental sciences Case Study: experimental science of elementary third grade
Ali AbdiThis research was conducted with the aim of to investigate the efficiency of teaching based on the effects of cognitive load on the experimental science of elementary third grade. A quasi-experimental research design was utilized. The statistical population of this stud MoreThis research was conducted with the aim of to investigate the efficiency of teaching based on the effects of cognitive load on the experimental science of elementary third grade. A quasi-experimental research design was utilized. The statistical population of this study included all female students of Kermanshah's 3rd elementary school in the academic year of 2017-2018. Two classes were selected using available sampling (Experimental N = 39 and Control N =38). In the control group, traditionally, students learned the lessons, and in the experimental and in the experimental group, students were presented content based on the cognitive load effects (Worked Example Effect and Completion Problem Effect, Attention Split Effect, Modality Effect, Redundancy effect). The efficiency of educational program was evaluated by a test of academic achievement in sciences and the one item Subjective Rating Scale (SRS) developed by Paas and Van Merrienboer (1993) was used to measure stu-dents’ cognitive load for both experimental and control group students. Confirmation of the validity of the academic achievement tool was based on the content validity and opinion of the experts and its reliability was done in the Richardson 21 method, which was 0.91 in the pre-test and 0.72 in the post-test. To analyze the statistical data, statistical descriptive statistics and inferential statistics including multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA), z score and independent t-test were used by SPSS software version 22.used. The results showed that there is a significant difference between the two methods of teaching based on the effects of cognitive load and traditional method in terms of efficiency (p <0.001), which means that the academic achievement level of students who through the educational program Trained cognitive effects were higher than those trained by conventional and conventional teaching methods. Also, students in the experimental group experienced a lower cognitive load of control group students. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
76 - The Impact of Cognitive Load and Augmented Reality Technology Methods on Students' Learning-Retention in Mathematics
Alireza Badeleh Abdoljalal Toomaj Moslem GhobadiyanThe purpose of the present study was to investigate the effect of cognitive Load and augmented reality technology methods on the learning-retention of 12th grade students of experimental sciences field in the mathematics 3 course in the academic year of 2018-2019. The r MoreThe purpose of the present study was to investigate the effect of cognitive Load and augmented reality technology methods on the learning-retention of 12th grade students of experimental sciences field in the mathematics 3 course in the academic year of 2018-2019. The research method is quasi-experimental with pre-test and post-test with three groups: one control group and two experimental groups. The statistical population of the study consisted of all 12th grade students of experimental sciences field of Gorgan city that were 726 students. Mustafa Khomeini high school was selected by cluster sampling method from 22 high schools of Gorgan as the sample. Then, from the 12th grade students of this school, the experimental sciences field was selected which consisted of 3 classes with 90 students. Among these students, those students who had average above 17, and who were discipline-desirable were selected. Finally, according to the criteria set, 60 students were selected as research sample. The research instrument consisted of a 30-questions researcher-made test with different levels of Bloom's cognitive domain. The coefficient of distinction and difficulty of each question was reported and was desirable. The results showed that cognitive Load and augmented reality technology methods have a positive and significant effect on students' learning and retention. And augmented reality-based teaching methods have a greater impact on students' learning and retention than other cognitive-based teaching methods and traditional methods. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
77 - Assessment of clouds seeding project in increasing of water harvesting in the Fars province using remote sensing and geographic information system techniques
Mahboubeh Olumi Majumerd Mohammad Zare Samaneh PourmohammadiDrought and climate change phenomena have severe negative impacts on natural vegetation and agricultural section in Central Iran during the last decades. Cloud seeding is one of the efficient methods to reduce the effects of climate change. The purpose of this study was MoreDrought and climate change phenomena have severe negative impacts on natural vegetation and agricultural section in Central Iran during the last decades. Cloud seeding is one of the efficient methods to reduce the effects of climate change. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of clouds seeding on rainfall in Fars province. November, December, February and April months in the water year of 2010-2009, selected as the prone month of precipitation in Iran, were evaluated cloud seeding projects in Fars province. Historical regression was used to evaluate the cloud seeding project. In the first step, raster monthly precipitation maps for each month of year in the period was 34 years (1977-2010) were plotted using the Kriging method to measure rainfall amounts of each year. Then, the volume of precipitation in April, February, January, and November in the target area stations were calculated and used as a dependent variable. Next, precipitation time series for each month of the period of 1977-2010 in the control area stations were calculated and entered into the regression as independent variables. Correlation between the volume of rainfall in both regions (target and control) were analyzed. Then, expected rainfall in the region was estimated and its confidence was determined using statistical methods. Comparing expected and actual rainfall, percentage of changes in precipitation due to clouds seeding in Fars province were determined. Results showed an increase of about 15% in precipitation in Fars province during the four months of the water year of 2009-2010. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
78 - An agro-climatic zoning of wheat cultivation in the Kermanshah province
Rastegar Mohamadi Javad Khoshhal Dstjerdi Daryoush Rahimi Razieh NouriSince the most cultivated areas allocated to dry land wheat in Kermanshah province, therefore the climatic zoning wheat cultivation seemed necessary for this province. To reach the research objectives was used the climatic data 6 synoptic stations (1989-2012) and climat MoreSince the most cultivated areas allocated to dry land wheat in Kermanshah province, therefore the climatic zoning wheat cultivation seemed necessary for this province. To reach the research objectives was used the climatic data 6 synoptic stations (1989-2012) and climate data 8 climatological stations (2008-2013). Initially for analyzing and performance steps, used software SMADA for different distribution possibilities, selected planting date and the best statistical distribution Then extracted map precipitation, temperature and thermal stresses and applied contribution of each layer in the layer zoning, So that the highest percentage of participation is related to precipitation The germination period With 31.5% and the lowest percentage of participation is related to heat stress (30) degrees Step reaching With 8.1%. The results showed that Between Elements of climate, precipitation and temperature There are important factors of wheat cultivation in the end By combining layers To the Method Weighted overlap in ArcGIS environment, were extracted wheat climatic zoning map. The results showed that the very appropriate areas with an area of 16.7% in parts of the northwest, west and southwest, appropriate areas with an area of 14.36% in the northwest, west and southwest, the average areas with 15.27% in the southwest, west, central, north, northeast and southeast and poor areas with 53.64%, is located more in central and northeast. This research can be used in order to the more prominently capability of geographical information systems in the composition and production of spatial and attribute data, and help managers and decision makers to access information and provide appropriate model according to the type of crop planning. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
79 - Monitoring and prediction land use/ land cover changes and its relation to drought (Case study: sub-basin Parsel B2, Zayandeh Rood watershed)
Shahin Mohammadi Khalil Habashi Saeed PormanafiLand use and land cover (LULC) change because of its impact on natural ecosystems has become a concern for natural resources protectors and managers. The present study aimed to predict LULC changes and also to study the relation of drought with these changes in the sub- MoreLand use and land cover (LULC) change because of its impact on natural ecosystems has become a concern for natural resources protectors and managers. The present study aimed to predict LULC changes and also to study the relation of drought with these changes in the sub-basin Parsel B2 with an area of 21100 hectares using CA-Markov model and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). For this purpose, using the preprocessed images of the sensors TM, ETM+, and OLI for the years 1986, 2001 and 2016, respectively, the LULC map was provided with supervised classification and maximum likelihood method. To validate the CA-Markov model, the LULC maps have been predicting for 2016 and they were compared to the reference land use map of 2016. After ensuring the accuracy of the predicted results for the year 2016, the related land use and land cover maps were predicted for the year 2030. The result showed a relation between LULC changes and drought condition. Based on result predicted for the year 2030, rain-fed agriculture 6.95% increase and range land 6.66% decrease in area. Thus In the event of drought and abandonment rain-fed agriculture land, soil erosion, increasing and also grazing pressure on the remaining range land causing range land degradation. Therefore, if the current land use strategy with current management remain, land degradation in the region will be inevitable. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
80 - Surveying of the past, present, and future of vegetation changes in the central Alborz ranges in relation to climate change
Diana Askarizadeh Hosein Arzani Mohammad Jafary Javad Bazrafshan Iain colin PrenticeAcceleration of climate trend change is caused by the swift shift of rangeland conditions that using modern methods of evaluation to them are counted to sustainable management of the rangelands. In order for an investigation of trend change of rangeland vegetation due t MoreAcceleration of climate trend change is caused by the swift shift of rangeland conditions that using modern methods of evaluation to them are counted to sustainable management of the rangelands. In order for an investigation of trend change of rangeland vegetation due to climate change, central Alborz rangelands were selected. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the period of 30-year (1987-2016) was extracted by Landsat satellite, TM, ETM+, and OLI series. Drought periods were determined using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The Markov Chain model was used to anticipate the future changes of rangeland vegetation. The results showed that the vegetation cover index’s changes have risen and fallen for three decades in which, despite of increasing for some years 1986 (0.86), 2002 (0.87), 2005 (0.87), and 2015 (0.86); the changes trend was decreasingly for 1995 (0.53), 1998 (0.65), 2000 (0.62), and 2008 (0.61) years, especially for fair to very poor classes. The highest correlation (91.5%) between the SPI and NDVI was shown that severe to moderate drought has taken place along with decreased vegetation periods. Moreover, the Markov Chain model has anticipated a forcible declined change of vegetation cover for 2031 and 2046 periods. Therefore, range management approaches have to prepare itself in order to the gradual increase of temperature, which has destructive effects on vegetation cover, via regulating of grazing capacity and replacing of highly performance livestock in the future. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
81 - Downscaling TRMM satellite-based precipitation data using non-stationary relationships between precipitation and land surface characteristics
Bahareh Zanjani Hesam Seyed Kaboli Mohsen RashidianSatellite-based precipitation dataset has been widely used to estimate precipitation, especially over regions with sparse rain gauge networks. However, the low spatial resolution of these datasets has limited their application in localized regions and watersheds. So, ha MoreSatellite-based precipitation dataset has been widely used to estimate precipitation, especially over regions with sparse rain gauge networks. However, the low spatial resolution of these datasets has limited their application in localized regions and watersheds. So, having an accurate estimation of precipitation by satellites along with the adequate spatial scale in hydrologic studies is the main goal of this study. In this research, Geographically weighted regression (GWR) method was investigated to downscale the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-3B42 Version 7) over the DEZ river basin in the southwest of IRAN for 2010-2011. Downscaling was performed based on the non-stationary relationships between the TRMM precipitation and the Digital elevation model (DEM) derived products, the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the Enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and the Land surface temperature (LST). The result shows that the downscale precipitation at 1 km spatial scale had significantly improved spatial resolution, and agreed well with data from the rain gauge stations. For the 16-day precipitation, Mean square root means square error (RMSE) and absolute mean error (MAE) values are 22.7 mm and 7.45 mm, respectively. However, the accuracy of the model varies in a different location and depends on the vegetation condition. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
82 - Evaluation of indices based on remote sensing in drought monitoring of Neyriz city
Mohammad ShabaniBackground and Objective Knowing the extent and severity of drought in a region and planning to reduce its effects is one of the most important principles of management in regional planning to combat drought. Drought monitoring and management in an area using remote sen MoreBackground and Objective Knowing the extent and severity of drought in a region and planning to reduce its effects is one of the most important principles of management in regional planning to combat drought. Drought monitoring and management in an area using remote sensing data and satellite imagery as a suitable tool in temporal and spatial monitoring of agricultural drought has always been the focus of regional managers. The purpose of this study is to investigate the efficiency of remote sensing data and satellite images in the zoning of agricultural drought in the years 2000 to 2021 in Neyriz city. For this purpose, three vegetation condition index (VCI), temperature condition index (TCI), and vegetation health index (VHI) were extracted from MODIS satellite images for the desired time period. The results of these indices were compared with the values of the standard precipitation index (SPI) in time series of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, and 48 months.Materials and Methods The study area in this study is Neyriz city located in the southeast of Fars province with an area of 10787 Km2 and is part of one of the watersheds of Bakhtegan Lake. The average altitude of the region is 1798 meters, the maximum altitude of the region is 3235 meters and the minimum altitude is 1476 meters above sea level. The average annual rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration of the basin are 204.8 mm, 19 °C, and 1058.3 mm, respectively. In this study, the rainfall data of Neyriz synoptic station during the statistical period of 22 years (2000-2021) were used to calculate the SPI index in time series of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, and 48 months. Then, 3 indices based on satellite imagery including vegetation condition (VCI), temperature condition index (TCI), and plant health index (VHI) were extracted from Modis measured data for May month from 2008 to 2021 and with standard precipitation index (SPI) were compared in time series of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24 and 48 months based on the correlation coefficient. Finally, the most appropriate drought index based on satellite images was selected from the indices and the percentage of drought classes was determined based on the selected index in the study area.Results and Discussion The results of calculating the values of the SPI index using DIP software in time series of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, and 48 months in the statistical period of 2000-2021 showed that the trend of curves in some years is decreasing, in some years it has been increasing and in most years it has been almost normal. On average, the incidence of droughts and wetlands according to the SPI index in different time series during the statistical period is 68% in normal conditions, 18% in wet conditions, and 16% in drought conditions. The results of calculating the SPI index in different ground series were analyzed based on data from synoptic stations and remote sensing data. For this purpose, the values obtained from all indices based on satellite images including VCI, TCI, and VHI are extracted and compared and their correlation coefficient with the ground SPI index in time series 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, and 48 became. VCI index values in 2000 have the lowest value (32.1%) and in 2020 have the highest value (41.3%) during May. Therefore, based on the value of the VCI index during the statistical period in 2008, severe drought conditions prevailed in the region, and in 2020, more favorable vegetation and wetting conditions prevailed in the region. The results obtained from the SPI index in different time series also confirm the fact that the most severe drought and wet season during the statistical period studied in the two years 2000 and 2020, respectively, in the region. In addition, the VCI index is most correlated with the SPI index in different series and the SPI relationship is significant with the all-time series. TCI index has no significant correlation with any of the time series and has a weak correlation with the SPI index in different time series. In addition, the VHI index has a significant correlation with time series of one, three, six, and twelve months only at the level of 5% and its correlation with the SPI index in different time series is much less than the VCI index. Spatial distribution of drought intensity based on the values of the studied indices in May 2008 showed that the eastern parts of the region, which is also located at low altitudes, have been more affected by drought. The study of the area affected by drought classes based on the TCI index in 2008 showed that there is no very severe drought in the study area, 11% of the area suffers from moderate drought, 22% of the area suffers from mild drought and 67% has no drought. According to the VCI index, the level of severe drought on the date is 0.14%, severe at 0.33%, moderate at 17%, mild at 77%, and no drought at 6%. Also, according to the VHI index, there is no severe or severe drought in the study area only 9% of the area suffers from moderate drought and 91% does not have a drought. Spatial distribution of drought severity based on the values of the studied indices in May 2020 shows that in the study area according to the TCI index there is no very severe drought on the target date and 5% of the area has moderate drought, 22% drought Mild and 73% lack drought. According to the VCI index on the target date, the percentage of drought is very severe 0.5%, severe 0.8%, moderate 5%, mild 31%, and no drought 62%. Also, according to the VHI index in May 1999, 0.2% of the area has a moderate drought, 30% has a mild drought and 69% has no drought. According to this index, there is no very severe drought in the region.Conclusion Drought is one of the most important natural disasters that affect millions of people and large parts of the world every year. This phenomenon, which starts slowly and has a creeping nature, can cause a lot of damage to agriculture, natural resources, and the environment. Knowing how to occur and preparing drought severity maps based on new methods has a very positive and serious impact on drought management in an area. One of the new and widely used methods in temporal and spatial monitoring of drought is the use of drought indices based on satellite images, which has recently been used in drought-related topics. The results of the SPI index analysis showed that in most time series, the most severe drought and wet season during the study period occurred in 2000 and 2020, respectively. The results also showed that the temperature condition index (TCI) has no significant correlation with any of the time series and has a weak correlation with the SPI index in different time series. The plant health index (VHI) with time series of one, three, six, and twelve months has a significant correlation at the level of 5% and its correlation with the SPI index in different time series is less than the vegetation condition index (VCI). The value of the VCI index in 2008 had the lowest value (32.1%) and in 2020 had the highest value (41.3%) during May, which is consistent with the results obtained from the SPI index in the region. A comparison of the results of this study with the results of other researchers shows the excellent accuracy of remote sensing indices in drought monitoring. Therefore, the use of remote sensing technology in drought monitoring in areas that do not have meteorological stations or have meteorological stations with low density or scattered is recommended. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
83 - Investigate of Precipitable Water in dusty conditions using satellite images (Case study: Southwest of Iran)
Tahereh Ensafimoghaddam Taher SafarradWhile the Greenhouse gases impacts of Powerhouse، cars، and other man-made particulate matter on air quality and public health، well known، their impact on climate is not fully understood. Scientists have shown that aerosols can lower surface temperatures either directl MoreWhile the Greenhouse gases impacts of Powerhouse، cars، and other man-made particulate matter on air quality and public health، well known، their impact on climate is not fully understood. Scientists have shown that aerosols can lower surface temperatures either directly، by reflecting sunlight skyward، or indirectly، by increasing the reflectivity of clouds، but until now have not figured out the role airborne particles play in shaping the distribution of rain and snowfall around the world. Suspended dust particles, especially in urban and industrial areas, act as a reducing agent for rainfall. Large fine dust (larger than 1 micron) can increase rainfall. But very fine dust particles in the upper atmosphere can suppress heavy rainfall. The current study aimed at investigating atmospheric precipitable water capacity and its relationship with periods of dust occurrences data in South west of Iran during (1986 –2016). In this paper، MODIS surface classification data was used to consider this influence. In this paper، the effect of dust occurances on rainfall studied by using classified data of MODIS/Terra Calibrated Radiances (MOD06). The results of this study by examining remote sensing data such as the amount of atmospheric precipitable water content and the occurrences of dust in some selected cases، showed that over time when dust rises، the amount of atmospheric precipitable water content which indicates the potential for rainfall، significantly reduced.The results of this study showed that one of the effects of dust events in southwestern Iran، there was a decrease in rainfall during a period of thirty years(1986-2016) and dust can significantly to act as reducing agent or rain suppressor in study region. On the other hand، in this study، in proof of dust reducing effect on atmospheric precipitable water content، the high performance of the MOD06 product appeared in the southwestern region of Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
84 - Drought prediction and modeling by hybrid wavelet method and neural network algorithms
Jahanbakhsh Mohammadi Alireza Vafaeinezhad Saeed Behzadi Hossein Aghamohammadi Amirhooman HemmasiBackground and Objective A drought crisis is a dry period of climate that can occur anywhere globally and with any climate. Although this crisis starts slowly, it can have a serious impact on health, agricultural products, the economy, energy, and the environment for a MoreBackground and Objective A drought crisis is a dry period of climate that can occur anywhere globally and with any climate. Although this crisis starts slowly, it can have a serious impact on health, agricultural products, the economy, energy, and the environment for a long time to come. Drought severely threatens human livelihood and health and increases the risk of various diseases. Therefore, modeling and predicting drought is one of the most important and serious issues in the scientific community. In the past, mathematical and statistical models such as simple regression, Auto-regression (AR), moving average (MA), and ARIMA were used to model the drought. In recent years, machine learning methods and computational intelligence to model and predict drought have been of great interest to scientists. Computational intelligence algorithms that have been previously considered by scientists to model drought include multilayer perceptron neural network, RBF neural network, support vector machine, fuzzy, and ANFIS methods. In this research, the purpose of modeling and predicting drought is by using three neural network algorithms, including multilayer perceptron, RBF neural network, and generalized regression neural. The drought index used in this research is the standardized precipitation index (SPI). In this research, the wavelet technique in combination with artificial neural network algorithms for modeling and predicting drought in 10 synoptic stations in Iran (Abadan, Babolsar, Bandar Abbas, Kerman, Mashhad, Rasht, Saqez, Tehran, Tabriz, and Zahedan) have been used in different climates and with suitable spatial distribution throughout Iran.Materials and Methods This study, initially using monthly precipitation data between 1961 and 2017, SPI drought index in time scales of 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 48 months through programming in soft environment MATLAB software implemented. The results of this step were validated using the available scientific software MDM and Drinc. Then, prediction models were designed using the Markov chain. In this study, a total of six computational intelligence models, including three single models of multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP), radial basis function neural network (RBF), and generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and three hybrids wavelet models with these three models (WMLP-WRBF-WGRNN) have been used to model and predict the SPI index in 10 stations of this research. In implementing all these six models, the MATLAB software programming environment has been used. In this study, four types of discrete wavelets were used, including Daubechies, Symlets, Coiflets, and Biorthogonal. Due to the better performance of the Dobbies wavelet, this type of wavelet was used as a final option in the research. In the Daubechies wavelet used between levels 1 to 45, level 3 showed the best performance among different SPI time scales; therefore, the Daubechies level 3 wavelet was used in all hybrid models of this study. After training all six algorithms used, the evaluation criteria of coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) was used to measure the difference between actual and estimated values.Results and Discussion The results of this study showed that computational intelligence methods have high accuracy in modeling and predicting the SPI drought index. In the first stage, the results showed that the individual MLP, RBF, and GRNN models, if properly trained, have close results in modeling and predicting the SPI drought index. In the next step, it was observed that the wavelet technique would improve the modeling results. In using the wavelet technique in combination with three single models MLP, RBF, and GRNN, the choice of wavelet type is also more effective in modeling, so in this research, the first of the four types of discrete wavelets Daubechies, Symlet, Qoiflet, and Biorthogonal in combination with Three single models of this research were used and the results of these four types of wavelets showed the relative superiority of the Daubechies wavelet over the other three wavelets. In using the Daubechies wavelet, since this wavelet has 45 times and the choice of order was also effective in modeling, it was observed by testing the wavelet 45 times that the 3rd wavelet, in general, has higher accuracy in all time scales of SPI index, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24 and 48 months and also in all three algorithms MLP, RBF, and GRNN. Therefore, in this research, the third-order Daubechies wavelet was used in all three algorithms of this research, as well as in all time scales. The results showed that combining the wavelet technique with all three models MLP, RBF, and GRNN will improve the results. The research graphs showed that for the quarterly time scale, the values obtained from the single model prediction in MLP and RBF modeling have a somewhat one-month phase difference compared to the hybrid model, while in the GRNN model, this prediction difference is negligible. The modeling results for both single and hybrid modeling modes indicate that there is no phase difference between the single and hybrid modeling methods in time scales of 6, 12, 18, 24, and 48. For the 12- and 24-month time scales, the single GRNN model had more fluctuations and errors in SPI monthly modeling and forecasting, while the hybrid model in these two-time scales had much better behavior in monthly modeling and forecasting. Distribution diagrams of data related to observational SPI of Abadan station showed that the modeling results for single and hybrid modes in 3 and 6-month time scales are less accurate than other time scales and fit line separation, and its uncertainty is higher than others. However, in all neural network models and in all time scales, the hybrid method has shown more accuracy. The numerical results of the study indicate that in all SPIs and stations under study, the differential values of R2 are positive, which indicates higher values of R2 in the hybrid model than in single neural network modeling, which indicates an improvement in hybrid modeling compared to individual models. Also, the differential values of RMSE are negative in all studied models and stations, which indicates that the amount of RMSE in predicting hybrid models is lower than individual neural network models. In the research graphs, it can be seen that the amount of differences in RMSE and R2 indicates a greater difference in time scales 3 and 6 than the time scales 12, 18, 24, and 48, which somehow goes back to the nature of the data of these time scales. The most significant improvement in R2 and RMSE is from the 3-month low to the 48-month high, respectively.Conclusion From the findings of this study, it can be concluded that artificial neural network algorithms are efficient methods for modeling and predicting the SPI drought index. The use of wavelets in all three models of artificial neural networks will also improve the results. It can also be concluded that for better modeling of the SPI drought index, it is necessary to select the optimal wavelet type and order. From the results of this study, it can be concluded that the wavelet technique has a greater impact on the lower time scales, i.e., 3 and 6 months, than the higher scales, i.e., 24 and 48 months. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
85 - Evaluation of rainfall on a daily, monthly and annual basis using satellite imagery (Case study: west boundary basin of Iran)
Ghazaleh Madadi Saeid Hamzeh Ali Akbar NorooziPrecipitation variable is the key parameter of agricultural and hydrometeorology studies. Therefore, measurement and estimation of rainfall at the regional level help to understand the manner of water and energy cycles. In spite of the high variability of te MorePrecipitation variable is the key parameter of agricultural and hydrometeorology studies. Therefore, measurement and estimation of rainfall at the regional level help to understand the manner of water and energy cycles. In spite of the high variability of temporal and spatial precipitation quantity, precipitation monitoring using ground stations at regional scales is considerably difficult. The use of satellite images with high spatial resolution is therefore recommended. However, it is first necessary to evaluate temporal and spatial accuracy of data. The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data for estimating daily, monthly, and annual rainfall on a regular spatial scale (0.25° ×0.25°) during 2000-2012, and to compare these estimated data with precipitation data at 30 stations (synoptic and climatological) in the west boundary basin of Iran. The Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated daily, monthly, and annually for the mentioned rainfall period changes. The results indicated a significant correlation (p<0.05) among the monthly and annual collected data of terrestrial and satellite precipitation. The relationship between monthly precipitation data from satellite images and observed data from stations were also determined using a linear and nonlinear regression for each year. The model reliability was also subsequently determined using statistical validation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
86 - Regionalization Of the Rainfall Temporal Patterns,Less Than 6 Hours In Iran
Farhad Khamchin moghadamStorms, as the main cause of producing floods, runoffs, soil erosion and the like, have important specifications which affects differently on the resulting floods. Temporal patterns are functions of rainfall intensity in time. These patterns in their one-peak states are MoreStorms, as the main cause of producing floods, runoffs, soil erosion and the like, have important specifications which affects differently on the resulting floods. Temporal patterns are functions of rainfall intensity in time. These patterns in their one-peak states are estimated by triangle. If the length of the storm peak point is given, then the triangular shape of the storm intensity function for the basin is available. In the present study, a new profile for storm intensity function in different regions in Iran is considered and according to other important specifications such as rainfall amount, rainfall duration, and storm peak intensity, the storm peak time is measured in a nonlinear relationship. The total number of storm gauging stations throughout Iran is 396. The number of the acceptable stations in terms of the rainfall duration less than 6 hours is 130. According to maximum daily precipitation, Iran is regionalized to 7 areas. A sample of each area’s storm with different duration is selected by systematic sampling method. The results showed that the storms with duration less than 6 hours behave properly in all our regions and about 43.6% of them have one-peak. About 34.6% of the total storms in Iran have one-peak and contain 10 to 48 hours duration. In this study, the analyzed storms had one-peak and less than six hours duration. Through linear and nonlinear regression and multiple regressions, the relationship between peak-time and other storm specifications was gained for all the regions in Iran. The most fitted patterns were nonlinear (log-regression) patterns. These patterns include 3 log-regression variables, namely duration specifications (Td), the proportion of rainfall amount (P) to rainfall intensity (IP), for regions 1 to 5. The best pattern for regions 6 and 7 was gained through 2 log-regression variables according to rainfall duration. Comparison of the presented patterns in this study showed their advantageous over other patterns which had been suggested so far. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
87 - The Effect of Conventional and Conservation Tillage Methods on the Improvement of Wheat Yield in Different Planting Dates and Seeding Rates
Nosratolla Haidarpour Raham Mohtashami Amin NamdariProduction in areas under rainfed cultivation is always associated with different constraints that among them, changes in precipitation and air temperature from year to year are widespread and uncontrollable. In this regard, the current study was conducted in order to c MoreProduction in areas under rainfed cultivation is always associated with different constraints that among them, changes in precipitation and air temperature from year to year are widespread and uncontrollable. In this regard, the current study was conducted in order to compare conservation and conventional tillage methods on wheat yield in sowing dates before and after effective autumn rainfall. The experiment was carried out as split-split plots based on a randomized complete block design with 3 repetitions in two years 2018 to 2020. Experimental treatments included planting time as main plots with two levels D1= before rainfall and D2= after rainfall tillage method as sub-plots including T1= conservative and T2= conventional and seeding rate as sub-sub-plots including S1= 200, S2=300 and S3= 400 seeds. The results demonstrated that although the planting date and seeding rate had no significant effect on the studied traits, the values obtained from the cultivation before rainfall and under 300 and 400 seeding rates were remarkably better. Tillage method caused a significant difference in grain yield and biomass of treatments 3634 and 8394 kg. ha-1, respectively, whereas conventional tillage the values were 2819 and 6114 kg. ha-1. Conservation tillage and cultivation before rainfall associated by using 300 seeds/m2 led to the highest values in number of plants, spikes, and 1000-grain weight compared to conventional method and cultivation before rainfall. Consequently, considering the cost of production, pre-autumn rainfall sowing under conservation tillage and with a 300 seeds/m2 is recommended for Gachsaran region. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
88 - اثر نوسان قطبی بر تغییرات دما و بارش فصول سرد سال در ایران مرکزی
کمال امیدوار مهدی جعفری ندوشن -
Open Access Article
89 - کلاسه بندی زمانی و مکانی بارش سنگین درگیلان با استفاده از GIS
بهمن رمضانی سوده ایزک مهری -
Open Access Article
90 - تحلیلی بر الگوهای سینوپتیکی مولد بارشهای رگباری (مطالعه موردی: بارش 132 میلیمتری مورخ 22/7/1391 شهرستان بهشهر)
برومند صلاحی ابراهیم ابراهیمی تبار محمد روشنعلی هانیه امید زاده -
Open Access Article
91 - واکاوی رابطه جوی اروپا-اقیانوس اطلس شمالی و اثر آن بر تغییرپذیری بارش در نیمه غربی ایران
محمد امین حیدری فرامرز خوش رفتار مهرداد محمد مرادیان -
Open Access Article
92 - تحلیل فضایی تغییرات آب وهوایی ایران طی دهه های اخیر
علی داودی شیرین مرادجانی -
Open Access Article
93 - الگوسازیARIMA برای بارش سالانه مشهد
آتوسا خجسته حسین عساکره -
Open Access Article
94 - ارزیابی مدلهای CMIP5 جهت شبیه سازی بارش با استفاده از ترکیب دادههای بارش شبکهای APHRODIT و بارش ماهواره ای PERSIANN-CDR در سراسر استان خوزستان
کاظم رنگزن علی شهبازی زهرا جریده مصطفی کابلی زادهیکی از مهم ترین محدودیت های مدل های گردش عمومی جو، بزرگ مقیاس بودن متغیرهای اقلیمی شبیه سازی شده می باشد. بنابراین می بایست به روش های مختلف ریزمقیاس شوند تا توانایی لازم جهت برازش به منطقه مورد مطالعه را داشته باشند. انتخاب مدل GCM مناسب ب Moreیکی از مهم ترین محدودیت های مدل های گردش عمومی جو، بزرگ مقیاس بودن متغیرهای اقلیمی شبیه سازی شده می باشد. بنابراین می بایست به روش های مختلف ریزمقیاس شوند تا توانایی لازم جهت برازش به منطقه مورد مطالعه را داشته باشند. انتخاب مدل GCM مناسب برای محدوده مورد مطالعه نقش بسیار مهمی در شبیه سازی پارامتر موردنظر (بارش) برای آینده دارد. در این تحقیق از مدل های CMIP5 شامل BCC-CSM1.1.M، MPI-ESM-MR و MPI-ESM-LR به منظورارزیابی مدل ها در دوره پایه و مشخص کردن بهترین مدل جهت برازش به منطقه مورد مطالعه استفاده شد. بدین ترتیب که ابتدا هیستوریکال مدل و دیتای شاهد (ترکیب بارش ماهواره ای پرژین و بارش شبکه ای آفرودیت) به دو دوره تقسیم شد دوره اول 1992-1983 به عنوان دوره پایه و دوره دوم 2003-1994 به عنوان دوره ارزیابی. شاخص های راست آزمایی میانگین خطای مطلق و شاخص امتیاز مهارتی میانگین خطای مطلق بین مدل ها و شاهد در دوره ارزیابی قبل و بعد از اصلاح و ریزمقیاس نمایی به صورت فصلی در نرم افزار متلب برای تمامی پیکسل های استان خوزستان محاسبه شد. .نتایج حاکی از آن است که قبل از اعمال روش ریزمقیاس نمایی عامل تغییر (دلتا) مدل BCC-CSM1.1.Mدارای خطای کمتر نسبت به دو مدل دیگر بود و دو مدل دیگر از لحاظ میزان خطا تقریبا مشابه بودند. .بعد از اعمال روش دلتا مدل BCC-CSM1.1.M بهترین بهبود را از خود نشان داد و مدل های MPI-ESM-MR, MPI-ESM-LR به ترتیب در رتبه های دوم و سوم اهمیت قرار گرفتند. بنابراین بیشترین اعتماد بعد از ریزمقیاس نمایی به روش دلتا برای آینده تحت سناریوی RCP5.4 برای استان خوزستان به مدل BCC-CSM1.1.M اختصاص یافت. Manuscript profile -
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95 - برآورد بارش رواناب و تهیه نقشههای کاربری اراضی و سطوح کشاورزی با استفاده از فن آوری سنجش از دور در حوضه آبریز رود زرد در استان خوزستان
رحیم آورند حسن ترابی پوده امروزه فن آوری سنجش از دور، در تمام زمینههای علمی و اطلاع رسانی در دنیا مورد استفاده است و نتایج بسیار رضایت بخشی داده است. در این تحقیق با بکار گیری فن آوری سنجش از دور و استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره ای، ضریب شماره منحنی با دقت بالایی برآورد شد ودبی پی More امروزه فن آوری سنجش از دور، در تمام زمینههای علمی و اطلاع رسانی در دنیا مورد استفاده است و نتایج بسیار رضایت بخشی داده است. در این تحقیق با بکار گیری فن آوری سنجش از دور و استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره ای، ضریب شماره منحنی با دقت بالایی برآورد شد ودبی پیک سیلاب، با دقت خوبی محاسبه گردید.در این مطالعه از جهت تاثیر تغییرات کاربری اراضی روی دادههای یک واقعه تاریخی، برای تصمیم گیری و ارزیابی تغییرات دوره بلند مدت کاربری اراضی حوضه نیز استفاده شده است. اندازه گیریهای بارش و جریان روزانه هم زمان، نشان داد که تغییرات کاربری اراضی، بر روی رابطه بارش- رواناب، در حوضه رودخانه مذکور تاثیر دارد. ولی به دلیل اینکه تصاویر ماهواره ای (به غیر از دو دوره 1990 و 2002 ) در دورههای زمانی مختلف، موجود نبود، نتایج ارزیابی تغییرات کاربری اراضی و تاثیر آن بر نتایج رابطه بارش- رواناب، نشان داده نشده است. در این مطالعه سیمای کلی حوضه، از سال 1990 تا 2002 تغییرات محسوسی نداشته است. نتایج، نشان داد که سنجش از دور و تکنولوژی GIS، برای تجزیه و تحلیل توزیع عمق رواناب، زیر حوضههای مورد مطالعه، مناسب می باشد. این فن آوری برای پیش بینی رواناب در آبخیزداری و منابع آب، می تواند مورد استفاده قرار گیرد. Manuscript profile -
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96 - استفاده از روشهای شبکه عصبی موجکی و سیستم استنتاج فازی عصبی تطبیقی در پیشبینی بارش ماهانه
اباذر سلگی حیدر زارعی بهداد فلامرزیپیش بینی بارش به دلیل ماهیت تصادفی آن در مکان و زمان همواره با مشکلات بسیاری مواجه بوده است و این عدم قطعیت از اعتبار بسیاری از مدل های پیش بینی می کاهد. امروزه شبکه های غیرخطی به عنوان یکی از سیستم های هوشمند در پیش بینی یک چنین پدیده های پیچیده ای بسیار مورد استفاده ق Moreپیش بینی بارش به دلیل ماهیت تصادفی آن در مکان و زمان همواره با مشکلات بسیاری مواجه بوده است و این عدم قطعیت از اعتبار بسیاری از مدل های پیش بینی می کاهد. امروزه شبکه های غیرخطی به عنوان یکی از سیستم های هوشمند در پیش بینی یک چنین پدیده های پیچیده ای بسیار مورد استفاده قرار می گیرند. یکی از روش هایی که در سال های اخیر در زمینه هیدرولوژی مورد توجه قرار گرفته است، استفاده از تبدیل موجک به عنوان روشی نوین و مؤثر در زمینه آنالیز سیگنال ها و سری های زمانی است. در پژوهش حاضر، تجزیه و تحلیل موجک به صورت ترکیب با شبکه عصبی مصنوعی و مقایسه با سیستم استنتاج فازی- عصبی تطبیقی برای پیش بینی بارش ایستگاه وراینه در شهرستان نهاوند انجام شد. برای این منظور، سری زمانی اصلی با استفاده از تئوری موجک به چندین زیرسیگنال زمانی تجزیه شد، پس از آن این زیرسیگنال ها به عنوان داده های ورودی به شبکه عصبی مصنوعی برای پیش بینی بارش ماهانه استفاده شد. نتایج به دست آمده نشان داد که مدل ترکیبی موجک- شبکه عصبی عملکرد بهتری نسبت به مدل سیستم استنتاج فازی- عصبی تطبیقی دارد و می تواند برای پیش بینی بارش کوتاه مدت و بلند مدت استفاده شود. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که مدل ترکیبی موجک- شبکه عصبی در برآورد نقاط حدی به خوبی عمل می کند. Manuscript profile -
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97 - بررسی تاثیر تغییراقلیم بر بارشهای حداکثر و حداکثر سیلاب محتمل رودخانه کارون
زهرا رامک جهانگیر پرهمت ابراهیم فتاحی مهران زند حسین صدقیتغییر اقلیم یکی از مهم ترین چالش هایی است که بخش های مختلف زندگی انسان را در روی زمین تحت تاثیر قرار داده است و یکی از آثار آن، تاثیر بر وقایع حدی (سیلاب و خشکسالی) می باشد. امروزه یکی از مهم ترین موضوعات مورد بحث این است که در آینده شدت بارش های سنگین و سیلاب ها نسبت ب Moreتغییر اقلیم یکی از مهم ترین چالش هایی است که بخش های مختلف زندگی انسان را در روی زمین تحت تاثیر قرار داده است و یکی از آثار آن، تاثیر بر وقایع حدی (سیلاب و خشکسالی) می باشد. امروزه یکی از مهم ترین موضوعات مورد بحث این است که در آینده شدت بارش های سنگین و سیلاب ها نسبت به دوره کنونی چگونه تغییر خواهد کرد. در این تحقیق تلاش شده است تا تاثیر این پدیده بر بارش های حدی و حداکثر سیلاب محتمل (PMF) رودخانه کارون در محل پل شالو مورد بررسی قرار گیرد. برای اینکار، دما و بارش دوره آتی (2039-2011) با استفاده از مدل HadCM3 و بر اساس سناریوهای انتشار A1B، A2 و B1 و مدل ریزمقیاس نمایی آماری LARS-WG شبیه سازی شده است. در گام بعدی حداکثر بارش محتمل حوضه به روش سینوپتیکی برآورد و پس از آن، با استفاده از مدل بارش- رواناب HEC-HMS و مدل ذوب برف SRM، حداکثر سیلاب محتمل این حوضه برآورد و در نهایت تاثیر تغییر اقلیم بر بارش های حداکثر و نیز حداکثر سیلاب محتمل این حوضه بررسی شده است. نتایج حاصل از این تحقیق نشان می دهد که حداکثر بارش محتمل حوضه در دوره 2039-2011 نسبت به دوره کنونی تحت سناریوی A1B، با 5 درصد کاهش و تحت سناریوهای A2 و B1 به ترتیب با 5 درصد و 10 درصد افزایش روبه رو خواهند شد. همچنین پیش بینی می شود سهم سیلاب ناشی از ذوب برف در مطالعات PMF، تحت سه سناریوی ذکر شده به ترتیب 24/1 ، 58/1 و 23/1 برابر افزایش داشته باشد. به همین ترتیب حداکثر سیلاب محتمل (PMF) این حوضه در تداوم های مختلف تحت سناریوی A1B کاهش و تحت سناریوی A2 و B1 افزایش خواهد داشت و شدت تغییرات تحت سناریوی B1 شدیدتر خواهد بود. Manuscript profile -
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98 - مطالعه مناسبترین روش برآورد بارش مؤثر جهت تعیین نیاز آبی گندم دیم در اصفهان
شمیم لاریجانی محمد سالاریان حسین بانژاد معصومه نجفیمحاسبه مقدار بارش مؤثر به‎عنوان یکی از منابع تأمین آب مورد نیاز برای کشت گندم از اقدامات مطالعاتی زیربنایی به شمار میرود که میتواند در برنامهریزیهای مربوطه مورد استفاده قرار گیرد. لذا شناسایی و به‎کارگیری روشی مناسب برای برآورد بارش مؤثر به‎خصوص در کشت د Moreمحاسبه مقدار بارش مؤثر به‎عنوان یکی از منابع تأمین آب مورد نیاز برای کشت گندم از اقدامات مطالعاتی زیربنایی به شمار میرود که میتواند در برنامهریزیهای مربوطه مورد استفاده قرار گیرد. لذا شناسایی و به‎کارگیری روشی مناسب برای برآورد بارش مؤثر به‎خصوص در کشت دیم اهمیت دوچندان پیدا میکند. در این پژوهش به ارزیابی روشهای مختلف تعیین بارش مؤثر ازجمله: روشهای سرویس حفاظت خاک اداره کشاورزی ایالات متحده (SCS)، بارش قابل اطمینان، تجربی، روش وزارت کشاورزی ایالات متحده (USDA)، درصدی و رنفرو، به کمک نرمافزار SPSS و با آزمون آماری دانکن در شهرستان اصفهان و برای کشت گندم دیم، پرداخته شده است. نتایج حاصل از این ارزیابی نشان داد که روش رنفرو به‎دلیل آنکه مقادیر بارش مؤثر را بیش‎تر از خود بارش نشان میدهد مورد پذیرش واقع نشده است. روشهای SCS و بارش قابل اطمینان و تجربی، به دلیل بدست آمدن مقادیر زیاد منفی (صفر)، بیش‎تر مناسب مناطق مرطوب میباشند. نتایج نشان داد که روش درصدی و USDA تطابق بیش‎تری با میزان بارش نسبت به سایر روشها دارند. باتوجه به تطابق بیش‎تر با مقدار بارش متوسط ماهانه بهترین روش برای محاسبه بارش موثر در اصفهان و برای گندم روشUSDA پیشنهاد گردید. Manuscript profile -
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99 - بررسی روند تغییرات زمانی و خصوصیات مکانی بارش و خشک سالی هواشناسی، در غرب کشور طی چند دهه اخیر
صفر معروفی حسین طبری علی آئینی حسین معروفیخشک سالی یکی از جدی­ترین مشکلات جوامع بشری و اکوسیستم­ها، در نتیجه تغییرپذیری اقلیمی است. این پدیده، سالانه موجب میلیاردها دلار خسارت در سطح جهان می­گردد و نسبت به دیگر بلایای طبیعی، مردم بیشتری را تحت تأثیر قرار می­دهد. در این تحقیق، روند تغییرات سری&sh Moreخشک سالی یکی از جدی­ترین مشکلات جوامع بشری و اکوسیستم­ها، در نتیجه تغییرپذیری اقلیمی است. این پدیده، سالانه موجب میلیاردها دلار خسارت در سطح جهان می­گردد و نسبت به دیگر بلایای طبیعی، مردم بیشتری را تحت تأثیر قرار می­دهد. در این تحقیق، روند تغییرات سری­های زمانی بارندگی و خشک سالی هواشناسی در ده ایستگاه واقع در غرب کشور، در دوره آماری 1384-1355 مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. مقادیر شدت خشک سالی با استفاده از شاخص بارش استاندارد (SPI)، در مقیاس زمانی 12 ماهه محاسبه گردید. همچنین تحلیل روند داده­ها با استفاده از آزمون من-کندال و تخمین گر سِن انجام شده است. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد که داده­های بارندگی و شدت خشک سالی، دارای تغییرات زیادی نسبت به میانگین در دوره مورد مطالعه بوده­اند. این تغییرات با افزایش خشکی به سمت شرق منطقه مورد مطالعه، فزونی یافته است. نتایج آزمون­ها نشان داد که سری­های زمانی بارندگی، دارای روند معنی­دار کاهشیمعنی­دار در ایستگاه­های سرپل ذهاب، بیجار، سنندج و سقز به ترتیب به میزان 99/7، 68/6، 51/5 و 03/5 میلی­متر در هر سال بوده است. همچنین شدت خشک سالی در ایستگاه­های کرمانشاه، سقز، سنندج و خرم­آباد در چهار دهه گذشته روند معنی­دار افزایشی داشته است. نتایج بدست آمده نشان داد که تمامی ایستگاه­های مطالعاتی، حداقل یک خشک سالی بسیار شدید را در دوره مورد مطالعه تجربه نموده­اند. Manuscript profile -
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100 - بررسی روند تغییرات دما و بارش ایستگاههای هواشناسی استان خوزستان
سعید پاکدل نرگس ظهرابیپدیده تغییر اقلیم یکی از مسائل حیاتی برای بشر امروزی محسوب میشود و خشکسالی نیز به عنوان یک ناهنجاری اقلیمی با علائم کمبود بارش و منابع آب در دسترس، در گستره وسیعی در طول زمان اتفاق میافتد. از میان متغیرهای اقلیمی، دما و بارش مهمترین متغیرهایی هستند که تغییرات آنها بطو Moreپدیده تغییر اقلیم یکی از مسائل حیاتی برای بشر امروزی محسوب میشود و خشکسالی نیز به عنوان یک ناهنجاری اقلیمی با علائم کمبود بارش و منابع آب در دسترس، در گستره وسیعی در طول زمان اتفاق میافتد. از میان متغیرهای اقلیمی، دما و بارش مهمترین متغیرهایی هستند که تغییرات آنها بطور مستقیم در رطوبت خاک و جریانهای سطحی و زیرزمینی منعکس میشود. در مطالعه حاضر پس از گردآوری داده های ماهانه بارش و دما در دوره آماری 2012-1983 و بررسی کیفیت و همگنی و صحت سنجی آنها، با استفاده از آزمون ناپارامتری من – کندال به بررسی روند تغییرات دما و بارش در ایستگاه های منتخب هواشناسی استان خوزستان پرداخته شد. نتایج دوره آماری مطالعه شده نشان دهنده افزایش روند تغییرات دمایی سالانه در کلیه ایستگاه­های منتخب استان است که با توجه به نتایج بدست آمده متوسط دمای سالانه به ترتیب در ایستگاه­های رامهرمز، بستان و آبادان با 8/7 ، 5/7 و 7 درجه سانتی­گراد در دوره مطالعاتی 2012-1983، بیشترین روند افزایشی را نشان می­دهند. به همین ترتیب ایستگاه مسجدسلیمان کمترین شیب افزایشی را با افزایش دمای سالانه ی 2/4 درجه سانتی­گراد را در دوره ی سی ساله بصورت افزایشی نشان می­دهد. براساس نتایج ، متوسط بارش سالانه، روند کاهشی این متغیر را در اکثر ایستگاهها نشان میدهد. اما متغیر بارش برخلاف دما، تغییرات یکنواختی نشان نمیدهد. در این مطالعه ایستگاههای بندر ماهشهر و امیدیه که در حدود بخش جنوب شرقی استان قرار دارند، افزایش نسبی بارش را در دورهی 30 ساله 2012-1983 نشان داده است. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
101 - کاربرد تابع انتقال در مدل سازی بارش- تراز آب زیرزمینی در استان گلستان
یول امان ناظری نادر جندقی مجتبی قره محمودلو مجید عظیم محسنیﺁﺏﻫﺎی ﺯﻳﺮﺯﻣﻴﻨﻲ ﺍﺭﺯﺷﻤﻨﺪﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁبی در کشور ایران بوده که ﻋﻤﺪﺗﺎ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎی ﺑﺎﺭﺵ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ. در پژوهش حاضر از آمار 30 ساله بارش و تراز آب زیرزمینی در سه حوضه آبخیز گالیکش، رامیان و محمدآباد جهت مدل ­سازی بارش-تراز آب زیرزمینی استفاده شد. پیش ­ Moreﺁﺏﻫﺎی ﺯﻳﺮﺯﻣﻴﻨﻲ ﺍﺭﺯﺷﻤﻨﺪﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺁبی در کشور ایران بوده که ﻋﻤﺪﺗﺎ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺍﻟﮕﻮﻫﺎی ﺑﺎﺭﺵ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺭﻧﺪ. در پژوهش حاضر از آمار 30 ساله بارش و تراز آب زیرزمینی در سه حوضه آبخیز گالیکش، رامیان و محمدآباد جهت مدل ­سازی بارش-تراز آب زیرزمینی استفاده شد. پیش ­بینی مقادیر تراز آب زیرزمینی با استفاده از داده ­های بارش برای 12 ماه آینده به کمک مدل تابع انتقال با استفاده از نرم­افزار SPSS انجام شد. در مرحله بعد اعتبارسنجی مقادیر پیش ­بینی شده با استفاده از شاخص ­های MAD، RMSE و MAPE مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج نمودار خودهمبستگی متقابل نشان داد در حوضه­ های گالیکش و محمدآباد بارش با سه ماه تاخیر بر تراز آب زیرزمینی تاثیر مستقیم گذاشته است، اما در حوضه آبخیز رامیان این تاخیر یک ماهه بود. همچنین مشخص شد مدل تابع انتقال در برازش مقادیر تراز آب زیرزمینی ماهانه در هر 3 حوضه آبخیز مورد بررسی عملکردی مناسبی داشته است. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
102 - کارآیی مدل برنامه ریزی ژنتیک در شبیه سازی فرآیند بارش- رواناب (مطالعه موردی : حوضه آبریز رودخانه خرم آباد)
حمیدرضا باباعلی زهره رامک رضا سپهوندپیش­بینی میزان دبی رودخانه یکی از مسایل مهمِ مهندسی منابع آب است؛ این موضوع از نظر برنامـه­ریـزی، مـدیریت، و سیاست­گذاری منابع آبی در راستای توسعة اقتصادی و زیستمحیطی به­ویژه در کشوری مثل ایران، با منابع آبی محدود اهمیت بسیار زیادی دارد. آگاهیازچگونگیارت Moreپیش­بینی میزان دبی رودخانه یکی از مسایل مهمِ مهندسی منابع آب است؛ این موضوع از نظر برنامـه­ریـزی، مـدیریت، و سیاست­گذاری منابع آبی در راستای توسعة اقتصادی و زیستمحیطی به­ویژه در کشوری مثل ایران، با منابع آبی محدود اهمیت بسیار زیادی دارد. آگاهیازچگونگیارتباطبینبارندگیورواناب حوضه­هایآبریزبخشجدانشدنیمطالعاتطرح­هایآبی می­باشد. فقدانداده­هایکافیبارش-رواناببهدلیلنبود ایستگاه­هایآبسنجیمناسب،اهمیتبه­کارگیری روش­های نامستقیم و الگوریتم­های فراکاوشیرابرایبرآوردمیزانروانابحوضه­های آبریزبیشازپیشنمایانمی­سازد. در این تحقیق از مدل برنامه­ریزی ژنتیک به­منظور شبیه­سازی فرآیند بارش-رواناب حوضه آبریز رودخانه خرم­آباد استفاده شده است و برای معرفیالگوهاوشناساییبهترینالگویحاکمبرماهیت جریان، با استفاده از توابع برازش و انجام فرآیندهای توسعه­ای و تکرار به منظور یافتن تعداد تکرار بهینه، همه داده­های دوره آماری به دو دسته آموزش و آزمایش(52% آموزش و 48% آزمایش) تقسیم شدند و برنامه برای 1000 تکرار اجرا گردید. همچنین جهت ارزیابی روابط حاصله از مدل شبیه­ساز، از شاخص­های جذر میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE)،میانگین خطای مطلق(MSE) وضریب تعیین (R2) استفاده شده است. بررسی­های انجام شده حاکی از آن است که فرمول استفاده شده شماره 3 بیشترین انطباق را با داده­های مشاهداتی دارد. بنابراین پیشنهاد میشود جهت مطالعات بارش- رواناب این حوضه از فرمول ذکر شده استفاده گردد. نتیجه این تحقیق مدل برنامه­ریزی ژنتیک را یک روش صریح و دقیق برای پیش­بینی جریان رودخانه­ در حوضه آبریز رودخانه خرم­آباد پیشنهاد می­نماید. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
103 - Comparative Effectiveness of Teaching by the idea of saving (SCAMPER), brainstorming and traditional way to change level of creative self concept and openness to experience
Ezato Allah Ghadam Pour Zeynab Beyranvand Mehdi Yosef VandAbstract: Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of the method saving ideas, brainstorming and traditional way on creative self concept and openness to change the of experience in secondary school students in the city of Khorramabad. Methods: MoreAbstract: Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of the method saving ideas, brainstorming and traditional way on creative self concept and openness to change the of experience in secondary school students in the city of Khorramabad. Methods: A quasi-experimental design 60 students selected by multistage cluster sampling and randomly divided into three groups. All groups Kafman creative concept questionnaire and Bauer (2004) and openness to experience Costa and Mac Lycra (1992) in the pre-test, post-test and follow-up of 2 months, respectively. Data were analyzed by analysis of covariance. Results: The results showed that in the post-test and brainstorming ways to increase the level of self-seeking creative ideas and openness has been experienced. In the follow- up work and brainstorming ways to increase the level of self-seeking creative ideas and openness to experience were not significantly different. and Brainstorming use. Conclusion: saving ideas and brainstorming ways to increase the creative concept and openness are effective experience. So it is better that secondary school teachers to increase creativity and its underlying variables, methods like brainstorming ideas and energy use. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
104 - The Effect of Teaching Methods of Brain Presenting on the Creativity and Academic Achievement of the 7th grade Male Students in the First and Secondary Schools in the Area of Three Karaj, 1395-1394
Ali Rahbar Alireza Assareh Gholamali Ahmadi Bahram SalehsadgpoureObjectives: The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the method of teaching the brainstorming on the creativity and academic achievement of the 7th grade male students in the first and second grade schools in the area of Karaj in the 1395-1394 academic MoreObjectives: The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the method of teaching the brainstorming on the creativity and academic achievement of the 7th grade male students in the first and second grade schools in the area of Karaj in the 1395-1394 academic year. Method: The research method was semi-experimental in a pre-test-posttest design with control group. The statistical population includes all male students of the first grade of the first grade of the first grade of Karaj 3rd district. The sample of this study was 64 male students of the 7th grade of primary school who were selected by purposeful sampling method. In control and experimental groups, 32 and 32 subjects were selected and the pretest and post-test groups were used after two months. To measure creativity, the Abedi Creativity Test (1372) was used before and after Brainstorming, and to measure academic achievement, the motivation for Hermann's academic achievement (1970) was used. Brain education for the experimental group received 5 sessions of 45 minutes, and after the training period, two post-test groups were taken. During this period, no training was performed for the control group. Covariance test was used to analyze the data. Results: The results of this study showed that the method of teaching brain drain in increasing the creativity and academic achievement of the experimental group was effective and there was a significant difference between the experimental and control groups in the components of creativity (fluidity, initiative, elasticity and flexibility ) Is seen. Conclusion: It is suggested that the Brain Critical Method be used to increase the creativity and academic achievement of students in the course of work and technology. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
105 - An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Creativity Teaching Techniques on Architectural Design with emphasis on the process of idea- finding and idea-generation
Mahnaz Talebi Mir Saeed Moosavi Kambiz PoshnehAbstract:Objective: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of creativity training technique for architectural designMethods: This study is an experimental study with pre-test and post-test design with experimental and control groups. Sampling method MoreAbstract:Objective: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of creativity training technique for architectural designMethods: This study is an experimental study with pre-test and post-test design with experimental and control groups. Sampling method in this research is visual and based on the selection of thermal unit of architecture students of plan 3 in the first semester2017-2018 of the available samples There are a total of 40 people in the two groups. In the experimental group, the training method is based on creativity techniques and in the control group, conventional training is followed. Creativity measurement tools were available in both pre-test and post-test stages of the Torrance questionnaire and a drawing test with 4 components of creativity, and the research data were analyzed using comparison and standard deviation criteria in SPSS software.Results: The results of the study indicate the improvement of creativity with the training of creativity techniques in the experimental group compared to the control group. The difference is that the technique of brainstorming is in the field of idea generation and can be achieved in a short time, while the scamper technique is in the field of idea generation and is acceptable in the long run.Keywords: Creativity training, Brainstorming, Scamper, Problem solving thinking, Design skills Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
106 - Comparison of Bybee and Traditional Teaching Methods on the Creativity and Cognitive Load in Chemistry Course
Mohammad Zare Rahele Sarikhani Javad Mehraban Mostafa salari Background: Tylmand training in the field, nowadays, the mechanisms for promoting creative thinking, because of unfamiliarity with new models to enhance creativity and application of passive patterns of traditional teaching to teach, are not enough. More Background: Tylmand training in the field, nowadays, the mechanisms for promoting creative thinking, because of unfamiliarity with new models to enhance creativity and application of passive patterns of traditional teaching to teach, are not enough. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare Bybee and traditional teaching methods on the creativity and cognitive load in chemistry course. Method: Quasi-experimental study design was a pretest-posttest control group. The study population included all first grade high school students in Malayer enrolled in the academic year of 1393-1394. 30 researches, by sampling randomly, assigned 15 people in two classes. Instruments for data collection included the Torrance test form Band questionnaire, cognitive load Brunken, Plass &Leutner. In order to collect data the creativity test was conducted on students. At the end of each training session (which included three half-hour sessions) cognitive load questionnaires were distributed among the students. In the end, creativity test was conducted on students. To analyze the data from the pretest and posttest scores of independent t-test and analysis of covariance were used. Data were analyzed using SPSS 18 software. Results: The results showed that the application of Bybee teaching methods to enhance creativity of students would also reduce the cognitive load (p=.0/001). Conclusion: The results showed that the application of Bybee teaching methods to enhance creativity of students would also reduce the cognitive load; therefore, it is recommended to train executives of the teaching methods used in teaching. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
107 - Comparing the effectiveness of two method (TRIZ and brainstorming) on the creativity of the E-learning training students of Khaje Nasir University
A. Amiri D. NorouziObjective: The aim of this article is to compare the efficiency of educational programming with respect to the two innovative methods for solving problems and brainstorming and their influences on creativity of university students who were studying in the E-learning cou MoreObjective: The aim of this article is to compare the efficiency of educational programming with respect to the two innovative methods for solving problems and brainstorming and their influences on creativity of university students who were studying in the E-learning course in the Khaje Nasir University in the first semester of academic year 1388-89. Method: As an experimental method, tow groups were used (one group as control and another as experiment group. This group consisted of Khaje Nasir University first semester students studying in E-learning course of the year 1388-89. The pre-test and post-test program was controlled by the two subsidiary control groups. The two groups were tested twice, the first test was conducted with a pre-test and the second were conducted with a post-test in order to establish it. Results: Results showed that the overall assessment of students at the Khaje Nasir University was higher than that of Brainstorming method. There was no statistically significant difference between the two groups regarding specialized questions about online search skills between TRIZ groups and brainstorming group. Conclusion: These findings could have some practical suggestions in applying appropriate teaching methods. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
108 - Comprising the effectiveness of creative thinking techniques training on student’s creativity among first grade high school students
A. Yaghobi H. Mohagheghi N. Erfani S. A. MortazaviThis research was conducted with the objective of examining the effect of three methods of creativity thinking (brainstorming, scamper and synectics) on creativity development among first grade guidance­­ school students in. Method: statistical population of thi MoreThis research was conducted with the objective of examining the effect of three methods of creativity thinking (brainstorming, scamper and synectics) on creativity development among first grade guidance­­ school students in. Method: statistical population of this study were all first grade guidance­ school students in Sardrood township. Present study was a pretest-posttest quasi - experimental design with control group. Four classes of first grade guidance school students (including 70 male students that all wer boy) were standed in 4 groups (brainstorming, scamper, synectics and control group) by using cluster sampling. In order to measure the dependent variable, namely creativity, Abedi (1372) Test of Creative Thinking was used. Results: The results revealed differences between pretest and posttest scores of brainstorming and scamper groups with control group. But these differences were significant between brainstorming and control group only (p<0.05). Conclusion: Regardless of the results, brainstorming technique training can lead to an increase in students creativity. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
109 - Prediction of the changes in some climate variables in Darehrood River of Aras Basin over next decades using of GCM Models
Ebrahim Fataei Ali i Aziz Seiied Taghi Seiied Safaviyan Ali Akbar Imani Akram Ojaghi Habib FarhadiClimate change is one of the natural features of atmospheric circulation anomalies and fluctuations in the meteorological parameters such as rainfall and temperature can be achieved. These anomalies in most of the world led to impair in natural ecosystems. Studies show MoreClimate change is one of the natural features of atmospheric circulation anomalies and fluctuations in the meteorological parameters such as rainfall and temperature can be achieved. These anomalies in most of the world led to impair in natural ecosystems. Studies show that emissions of greenhouse gases in recent decades have increased considerably. These gases increase in the atmosphere, causing changes in Earth's climate parameters. With widely varying meteorological simulation models of generators weather in recent decades, it is essential that these changes in a series of simulated apply. In this study, using statistical downscaling techniques, GCM models under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) for the period 2039-2011 using statistical models LARSE-WG daily data of temperature, precipitation and radiation small scale, and the results were evaluated on synoptic stations. The results show that changes in climate parameters will be created during the study period. So that the average temperature between the stations under study between 31.0 to 69.3 ° C will increase and rainfall will increase to 2.8 to 21.5 percent Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
110 - The chaotic nature of monthly rainfall in the Tabriz under climate change
Rasoul Jani Mohammad Ali Ghorbani Abolfazle ShamsaiPopulation increase, changes in land usage and industrial activities' development have caused climate changes indifferent regions of the Earth. So studying these effects on rainfall process which is one of the most importantcomponents of water engineering studies. To co MorePopulation increase, changes in land usage and industrial activities' development have caused climate changes indifferent regions of the Earth. So studying these effects on rainfall process which is one of the most importantcomponents of water engineering studies. To considering ,extraordinary capabilities in chaos theory formodeling nonlinear and complex hydrological phenomena such as rainfall. In this study, monthly precipitation ofTabriz in the historical condition and climate change condition has been studied with this theory. For estimatelag time and phase state is using autocorrelation function and for chaos dimension applying correlationdimension method. Thus, the statistical period 1971-2000 as a historical period is chosen and the results of theLARS-WG model under two scenarios are (B1) and (A2) in three periods (2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099) as future periods. Results show historical period data with the fractal dimension of 5/96 which has a goodchaotic nature. In scenario A2, three series of data, has chaotic nature and their fractal dimension is lower ofhistorical data while in scenario B1, The three periods have stochastic behavior. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
111 - Evaluation of environmental effects of Ayoshan Dam using Leopold and Matrix modified matrix method
MahmoudReza Maghouli Mahmoud Zakeri Niri Masomeh SohrabiMajor Dam construction projects have increased due to the widespread climate change, because of increased drought, human population growth and, consequently, increased global demand for energy and water. However, without comprehensive research, a large project such as a MoreMajor Dam construction projects have increased due to the widespread climate change, because of increased drought, human population growth and, consequently, increased global demand for energy and water. However, without comprehensive research, a large project such as a dam will have an irreversible and unpredictable impact on the environment. A survey on the history of dam construction projects shows that many of them have been designed and exploited regardless of environmental considerations, thus causing various contamination and destruction of major parts of natural resources have been. In this research, the environmental impacts of the Eyvashan earth dam were identified in two phases of construction and exploitation on biological, physical-chemical, economic-social, cultural and strategic environments, using Leopold modified matrix and rapid impact assessment matrix (RIAM). The results showed that the most negative and negative effects in the construction phases and exploitation in the modified Leopold matrix and the Rapid Impact Assessment matrix related to the physical-chemical environment. In addition, the most positive effects in construction and exploitation phases for the modified Leopold matrix are related to the strategic and socio-economic environments and for the matrix of the assessment of the Rapid Impact Assessment of the socioeconomic environment on both phases. The results show a very good fit between the two matrices and confirm the accuracy of the results in the environmental assessment of the Eyvashan Dam in two stages of construction and exploitation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
112 - Study of the rainfall effects on bacterial concentration in the selected karst water resources, in typical arid and semi-arid region of Maharlu basin, Shiraz
Ehsan Pouryasin Mehrdad Rahnemaei Mohammad ManshouriEach karstic aquifer has its own singular hydrodynamics behavior, flow pattern and infiltration capacitycharacteristics. Recent studies have shown that the karst aquifers responses to infiltration events are veryimportant. In this research, studies reveal the effectiven MoreEach karstic aquifer has its own singular hydrodynamics behavior, flow pattern and infiltration capacitycharacteristics. Recent studies have shown that the karst aquifers responses to infiltration events are veryimportant. In this research, studies reveal the effectiveness of rainfall events on the index bacterialconcentration in dry and wet period in a semi-arid region, Maharlu basin. But total rainfall does not have anydetermined relationship with total bacterial concentration in the selected karst water resources, so we need toprospect any event as unique. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
113 - Assessment of Islamshahr Watershed Environmental Reaction by Kinematic Wave Theory in GIS Base
Mahmood Zakeri NiriHydrologic problems are important in urban management. Hydrograph is an efficient tool in this management. In this paper behavior of synthetic and real watershed is studied. In first equations of Kinematic Wave Theory have coded in MATLAB and finally by achieved model i MoreHydrologic problems are important in urban management. Hydrograph is an efficient tool in this management. In this paper behavior of synthetic and real watershed is studied. In first equations of Kinematic Wave Theory have coded in MATLAB and finally by achieved model in MATLAB and use of GIS, reaction of watershed have assessment. In real watershed state, computed results have compared with a set of laboratory data (Observed Results). Comparison showed accuracy in regression. In second step, Islamshahr Watershed as a real watershed has assessment and by making isochrones, Time-Area curve was result by variety in rainfall intensity Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
114 - The Analytic Study of Patricide Mythology in Shahnameh and the World’s Myths
nosratolah ahmadifard Dr.ali heydari Dr.masood sepahvandi Myth has been one of the constituting elements of culture as well as ethnic and national identity of societies. Some mythologists consider it as the religion of the early civilizations and the era before the expansion of the monotheistic religions. Myths of diffe More Myth has been one of the constituting elements of culture as well as ethnic and national identity of societies. Some mythologists consider it as the religion of the early civilizations and the era before the expansion of the monotheistic religions. Myths of different nations have similarities and uniformities. The confrontation between myths against each other and their hard-fought battle together with each other have been transmitted to us today in the stories that are subject to various interpretations. In Shahnameh, the mythical characters inherit special credit and in the Avesta and Pahlavi books are of the supernatural aspect. By touching upon the first patricide myth in Shahnameh, in the current study it has been tried to show that events leading to patricide in the myths of Shahnameh and the world have overt and covert angles; however, the mythological patricide is one of their supernatural aspects. By examining the reasons for patricide and studying the similar and different aspects of mythological, epic, and historical characters of Iran and the world, it seems that gaining power and reign have the highest frequency; the gods have obvious interferences in the western world's patricide, while in the eastern world, it seldom happens due to the father’s sanctity. Other reasons include magic, love, maternal, intentional, and unintentional parenting provocations. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
115 - بررسی اثر پسکنشی زبان دوم بر زبان اول در یادآوری کلمه و فعالسازی واژگان
Afsaneh Alsadat Movahedpour Amin Naeimiهدف تحقیق حاضر بررسی تاثیر یادگیری زبان انگلیسی به عنوان زبان دوم بر یاداوری و به کارگیری لغات در بین زبان آموزان ایرانی بود. به این منظور یک نمونۀ آماری که شامل 45 زبانآموز مونث و مذکر بود، انتخاب شدند و به دو گروه آزمایش و کنترل تقسیم شدند. هرکدام شامل پانزده داوطلب. Moreهدف تحقیق حاضر بررسی تاثیر یادگیری زبان انگلیسی به عنوان زبان دوم بر یاداوری و به کارگیری لغات در بین زبان آموزان ایرانی بود. به این منظور یک نمونۀ آماری که شامل 45 زبانآموز مونث و مذکر بود، انتخاب شدند و به دو گروه آزمایش و کنترل تقسیم شدند. هرکدام شامل پانزده داوطلب. به منظور آزمون یاداوری لغات یک آزمون با زمان محدود در بین سه گروه اجرا شد. آنها باید به شانزده کلمۀ فارسی غیر همخانواده گوش میدادند. هرکدام در 2 ثانیه باید آنها را به یاد میآوردند و بازگو میکردند. برای فعالسازی واژگان، یک آزمایش انجام شد که طی آن شرکت کنندگان باید لغاتی را که بر روی صفحه می دیدند، بازگو کنند. نتایج نشان داد که شرکتکنندگانی که در معرض آموزش زبان نبودند نسبت به گروه زبان آموزان با سطح متوسطه یا پایین عملکرد بهتری داشتند. همچنین نمرات گروه اول در آزمون یادآوری لغت از دوگروه دوم بالاتر بود. در آزمون یادآوری کلمه، میانگین نمرات گروه کنترل از دو گروه دیگر بالاتر بود. اگرچه نتایج تفاوت معناداری بین سه گروه را در این آزمایش نشان نداد، نتایج تحقیق حاضر نکاتی برای مدرسان زبان انگلیسی و گردآورندگان مطالب آموزشی دارد. مدرسان میتوانند، ارتباطی بین دانش واژگان دو زبان پیدا و بیان کنند و از این طریق به زبان آموزان کمک کنند تا دانش لغوی خود را با بار شناختی کمتری فعال کنند. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
116 - Study on seasonal fluctuations of the fungus Alternaria alternata population, causal agent of Thomson Navel black rot disease in North of Iran
Seyed Vahid Alavi Parsa TeymuriBlack rot, caused by Alternaria alternata (Fr.) Keissl., is one of the important pre and postharvest diseases on Thomson Navel orange fruits in East of Mazandaran. During two years 2010-2011, the experiment was done in two citrus orchards with previous record of the inf MoreBlack rot, caused by Alternaria alternata (Fr.) Keissl., is one of the important pre and postharvest diseases on Thomson Navel orange fruits in East of Mazandaran. During two years 2010-2011, the experiment was done in two citrus orchards with previous record of the infected fruit drop, a 12-years old orchard of Thomson Navel trees on sour orange and an 8-years old orchard of Thomson Navel trees on citrange, with 10 kilometers distance between them in north of Sari. Diameter mean of 50 fruits were measured in each orchard at 10 days intervals from 20 May to 20 September. Stylar end of the fruits was rinsed with Lacto-Tween solution and collected. Total and germinated spores mean on the fruit stylar end was calculated for each orchard. Regression analysis was determined between meteorological and collected data by SAS statistical software. Year effect had a distinctive trait on the results and number of germinated spores was related to temperature and rainfall in first and second years, respectively. Maximum spores accumulation and germination is predictable when the ten days precipitation average reach to more than three millimetre and the temperature mean more than 22 degrees centigrade, based on the results and the maximum infected fruit drop record in summer. This is optimum time for control of the disease. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
117 - Comparison of Soil Moisture Accounting model and Neuro-fuzzy for Rainfall-Runoff Modeling (Case study: Zola Chay watershed)
Ebrahim Yousefi MobarhanHydrological simulation of watersheds applies for estimating peak discharge and runoff volume from rainfall, flood routing in rivers and flood hydrograph analysis. The purpose of this study is application of soil moisture accounting (HMS SMA) and Neuro-fuzzy models in d MoreHydrological simulation of watersheds applies for estimating peak discharge and runoff volume from rainfall, flood routing in rivers and flood hydrograph analysis. The purpose of this study is application of soil moisture accounting (HMS SMA) and Neuro-fuzzy models in daily flow, The purpose of this study is application of soil moisture accounting (HMS SMA) and Neuro-fuzzy models in daily flow. runoff volume and hydrograph analysis of the simulated rainfall - runoff in the Zola Chay watershed. In this study after of Zola Chay watershed modeling with HEC-GeoHMS Extension, In this study after of Zola Chay watershed modeling with HEC-GeoHMS Extension. the model entered to HEC-HMS program and by parameters estimating of soil moisture accounting model, the rainfall- runoff simulation in other scales has been done. By analysis of time scales for calibration and optimization of HMS SMA model parameters we can claim that the monthly time scale rainfall - runoff simulation accurate than annual, seasonal, semiannual and annual time scales can be better than the other time scales of flow to estimate peak. Comparing the calibration and optimization soil moisture and Neuro-fuzzy methods revealed that fuzzy method can simulate rainfall- runoff relationship better than SMA model by best statistical coefficients (E= 0.76 and RMSE= 0.18). Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
118 - Regional analysis and evaluation of the rain-gauge and hydrometric station networks of Jarrahi- Zohre Basin using discrete transinformation entropy
Seyed Morteza Tabatabae Seyed Amir Shamsnia Alireza ValipourAssess the quality of rainfall and stream flow information have an important role in improving the efficiency and correct their deficiencies. For an optimal monitoring network design, they should be reviewed periodically based on the information needs and future water r MoreAssess the quality of rainfall and stream flow information have an important role in improving the efficiency and correct their deficiencies. For an optimal monitoring network design, they should be reviewed periodically based on the information needs and future water resources development plans. In this study evaluates regional values of rain-gauges and stream-gauges in Jarrahi- Zohre basin using the discrete entropy. To determine the regional value of each station within a region, several information parameters, were calculated to identify essential rain gauge and critical area. Based on the obtained results, 39.7% of the area of the area does not have a rain-gauge station, while nearly 53% of the area of the area is in the class of lack, severe lack and lack of information exchange, and 40% of the area of the area is in the middle class. Therefore, the density of the 42 selected stations of the rain gauge network in Jarrahi - Zohre basin is not acceptable and it is necessary to seriously reconsider the distribution and layout of the rain-gauge stations in the area. Also, 21.16% of the area of the area does not have a water measuring station. While more than 5.7% of the district area is in the class of deficiency, severe deficiency and lack of information exchange, and more than 73% of the area of the district is in the middle, upper middle and surplus class. Therefore, the density of the 16 selected stations of the water measurement network is optimal and other active water measurement stations can be removed from the monitoring network of the area. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
119 - تجزیه وتحلیل آماری مقادیر طولانی مدت بارش جهت برازش توزیع آماری مناسب ( مطالعه موردی ایران)
بهلول علیجانی حمیده افشارمنش -
Open Access Article
120 - Confrontation of Samanid and Buids genealogical thought in the context of political and territorial conflicts; Case study of Ray region
Mina SafaFrom the second century AH, with the rise of Iranian dynasties in the political arena, Iranian and archaic tendencies gradually entered the political structure from the cultural sphere, including the efforts of the Samanids and the Buyids to attribute their dynasty to t MoreFrom the second century AH, with the rise of Iranian dynasties in the political arena, Iranian and archaic tendencies gradually entered the political structure from the cultural sphere, including the efforts of the Samanids and the Buyids to attribute their dynasty to the families of ancient kings, nobles and heroes. The choice of such a relative dynasty provided national acceptance in the social context, proving the merit and legitimacy of the regime, and consequently fulfilling many of their goals in the field of cultural, political, and territorial conflicts. The most important manifestation of these tendencies and the means of propagating and introducing the lineage of the ruling system were historical books.In this article, in order to reveal the opposition between the Samanid and Al- Al-Buyid genealogical thought and discourse in the context of political and territorial conflicts, with emphasis on the Ray region, the data related to the genealogical discourse of these dynasties were described and analyzed with a semantic approach. As a result, it became clear that the Samanids and the Buyids dynasty, in their territorial disputes, especially the conflict over the strategic Ray region, used genealogical claims to assert the legitimacy of their sovereignty by proclaiming it in historical texts. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
121 - The Comparison the Effectiveness of Cooperative and Brain Stroming Learning on the Student Social Adjustment and Self-Efficacy
Amir Yekanizad akbar soleimannezhad Norieh HajizadehThe current research was conducted with the aim of comparing the effectiveness of cooperative learning and brainstorming on students' social adaptation and self-efficacy. The research method was quasi-experimental with pre-test and post-test with two experimental groups MoreThe current research was conducted with the aim of comparing the effectiveness of cooperative learning and brainstorming on students' social adaptation and self-efficacy. The research method was quasi-experimental with pre-test and post-test with two experimental groups. The statistical population includes all the male students of the third year of the second year of high school in the field of humanities in Khoi city in the academic year of 1401-1400, and their number is 510, from among the statistical population, 70 people were selected using the multi-stage cluster sampling method, of which 35 people 35 people were trained in cooperative learning method and brainstorming method. To collect data, compromise behavior questionnaire (Lambert et al., 1974) and Scherer general self-efficacy questionnaire were used. Covariance analysis was used to analyze the data. The obtained results showed that the effectiveness of collaborative learning and brainstorming on increasing social adaptation and self-efficacy of students is significantly different. In other words, the effect of collaborative learning on increasing social adaptation is greater than the brainstorming method, and the effect of brainstorming on increasing self-efficacy is greater than the collaborative learning method. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
122 - aa
mahnaz rahmanimehr Ali Falahnejad nader pourakhondi Ali Fallahi Seif Aldinaa -
Open Access Article
123 - The Effect of Brainstorming Method on Reducing Reading Learning Disorder in Elementary School Students of Hamedan City
elaheh zahedi no Azam ghavidelThe present study was conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of brainstorming teaching method on reducing reading learning disorder in elementary school students of Hamadan city. The present study was a cross-sectional study in terms of practical purpose, a MoreThe present study was conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of brainstorming teaching method on reducing reading learning disorder in elementary school students of Hamadan city. The present study was a cross-sectional study in terms of practical purpose, a cross-sectional study in terms of time, a quantitative data type, and a semi-experimental one in terms of research method, with a pre-test-post-test design with a control group. The statistical population of the study consisted of all the students with learning disabilities of the reading type, in the primary level, who had referred to the learning disabilities center in Hamedan city in the academic year of 2001-2001. From the aforementioned statistical population, 30 people were selected by available sampling method and were randomly divided into two experimental and control groups, then the experimental group underwent 8 training sessions (two sessions in one week) for 45 minutes. brainstorming training, but the intervention was not implemented for the control group. Then, both groups were given a post-test using the mentioned questionnaire. The research tools include the brainstorming program based on Le Francois (1991) brainstorming protocol and Shirazi and Nilipour's reading disorder test (2013), in order to analyze the data and examine research hypotheses from multivariate and univariate covariance analysis. used. The results showed that the effects of brainstorming teaching on reading comprehension are significant and the effects of brainstorming teaching do not affect reading speed and reading accuracy. The brainstorming teaching method could not create a significant difference between the experimental and control groups in the components of reading speed and correctness of the material. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
124 - Comparing the Effectiveness of Brainstorming and TRIZ Training on Students' Academic Engagement and Academic Buoyancy
Seyyed Mohammad Fatehi Sinesar asgar nakhostin goldost Somayeh TaklaviThis research was conducted with the aim of comparing the effectiveness of brainstorming and TRIZ training on students' academic engagement and academic buoyancy. The research method was semi-experimental with a pre-test-post-test design with two experimental groups. Th MoreThis research was conducted with the aim of comparing the effectiveness of brainstorming and TRIZ training on students' academic engagement and academic buoyancy. The research method was semi-experimental with a pre-test-post-test design with two experimental groups. The statistical population of the research included 750 male students of the second year secondary schools in Garmy city in the academic year of 2022-2023, of which 30 were selected by available sampling and after obtaining the inclusion criteria, they were divided into two groups 15 Test subjects 1 and 2 were placed. The instrument used in this research was the Reeve 's academic engagement scale, academic buoyancy scale of Dehghanizadeh and Hossein Chari. Brainstorming training program during 6 sessions of 90 minutes for the experimental group 1 and the TRIZ program during 6 sessions of 90 minutes for the experimental group 2 were implemented by the teachers. Data analysis was done using univariate analysis of covariance in SPSS program. The results showed that there was no significant difference between the post-test scores of academic engagement of the groups (P<0.05), but a significant difference between the scores of the academic buoyancy post-test of the groups (F=6.658, P=0.016). The academic buoyancy scores of TRIZ training group have increased more compared to the brainstorming training group, as a result, TRIZ training has been more effective in improving academic buoyancy compared to brainstorming training. In general, according to the findings of the research, the TRIZ method is superior to the brainstorming method in increasing the academic buoyancy of students, and if teachers are trying to improve the academic vitality of students, they can achieve this goal faster and better by implementing the TRIZ teaching method. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
125 - The study of the effect of creativity techniques on academic achievement of female first-grade high school students in social studies course at District 2 of Tabriz
Seyyed Davoud Hosseini-nasab Mehri LotfollahiThe present study aimed at investigating the effect of creativity Techniques on academic achievement of female first-grade high school students in social studies course at District 2 of Tabriz. Eighty six students participated in these researches who were assigned to tw MoreThe present study aimed at investigating the effect of creativity Techniques on academic achievement of female first-grade high school students in social studies course at District 2 of Tabriz. Eighty six students participated in these researches who were assigned to two experimental and one control groups. In teaching social students` course, in one of the experimental groups, brain storming and in the other one creative study techniques were employed. All three groups took pre- and post tests. The results gained through the analysis of variance and covariance showed that using creative techniques in social studies course is effective in enhancing students` academic achievement. There was no significant difference between two creativity techniques brain storming and creative study, with regard to academic achievement. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
126 - The Effect of Instruction Based on Cognitive Load theory on Academic Achievement, Perceived Cognitive Load and Motivation to Learning in Science Courses
Ali Abdi Maryam RostamiThe purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of instruction based on cognitive load theory on academic achievement, perceived cognitive load and motivation to learning in science courses. The method of research was a quasi-experimental with non-equivalent gro MoreThe purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of instruction based on cognitive load theory on academic achievement, perceived cognitive load and motivation to learning in science courses. The method of research was a quasi-experimental with non-equivalent groups, which includes pre and post-test design with the control group. A total of 58 sixth grade students from two different classes were involved in the study (experimental group N=28 and control group N=23). They were selected through available sampling. The experimental group were trained through the science course syllabus based on cognitive load effects (Worked Example Effect and Completion Problem Effect, Attention Split Effect, Modality Effect, Redundancy effect) and the control group through traditional and common teaching methods for six weeks. For collecting the data, a teacher-made achievement test on sciences which consisted of 20 multiple choice questions and a motivation toward sciences questionnaire were applied. Also, at the end of each unit, the Subjective Rating Scale (SRS) was used to measure the students’ cognitive load. Both descriptive and inferential statistical (ANCOVA) techniques were used for analyzing the data. The results showed that instruction designed by CLT principles was effective for teaching sciences. Also, the findings showed that students in the experimental group developed more positive motivation towards science after the treatment. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
127 - Introducing the PRIZ
Parviz Abdoltajedini Ali delavar Hasan Ahadi Hadi bahrami -
Open Access Article
128 - The effect of Sale and Operation planning on total supply chain performance (a case study in forming industry)
Mehrdad Madhoshi Abdolhamid Safaei Ghadikolaei Yaser NematiNowadays, Sales and Operations Planning has become a well-knownand widely used process, yet, up to now, its usefulness has beenneglected. This paper intended to assess the performance process of saleand operation planning through mathematical modelling procedure.Three M MoreNowadays, Sales and Operations Planning has become a well-knownand widely used process, yet, up to now, its usefulness has beenneglected. This paper intended to assess the performance process of saleand operation planning through mathematical modelling procedure.Three Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) models have been developedin this study, namely fully integrated (with centralized sales, production,distribution and procurement planning), partially integrated (withcentralized sales and production, but separated procurement anddistribution planning), and decoupled (with centralized sales, butdecentralized production, distribution and procurement planning). Allthree models have been developed for a multi-site manufacturingcompany. The results demonstrated the superiority of fully integratedmodel over the others. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
129 - Spatial analysis and modeling the relationship between atmospheric action centers with widespread anomalies precipitation of Iran
Hosain Mohammadi Faramarz Khoshaghlagh ghasem azizi Mohammad Amin HeidariVariability is one of inherent properties of the climate system. In addition to the dynamic nature, the climate system is extremely intertwined nature also, so that its components interact with each other and eventually they change each other.. In general, the climate o MoreVariability is one of inherent properties of the climate system. In addition to the dynamic nature, the climate system is extremely intertwined nature also, so that its components interact with each other and eventually they change each other.. In general, the climate of a region or geographic location is controlled by various factors, including Atmospheric Action Centers (AAC's). AAC's behaviors have an effective role in short and long term changes in weather and climate conditions and also their components. AAC's can change the climate system. A climatic index is defined here as a critical value that can be used to describe the states and the changes in the climate system. Changes on climate are much slower than on the weather, that can change strongly day by day. Each climatic index is based on certain parameters and describes only certain aspects of the climate, so there are a variety of climate indices that have been defined and examined in numerous publications. For each climate index there is a defining equation that uses the so-called climate elements. These are measurable parameters that influence the properties of the climate system, primarily, for example, atmospheric parameters such as air pressure, air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation, but also non-atmospheric parameters such as sea surface temperature or ice cover. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
130 - Examining Snow Cover Changes in Relation to Drought Using Remote Sensing Techniques and GIS (Case Study of the West and East Azerbaijan Provinces)
Fahimeh Hooshmand mohammadebrahim afifiIn this research, to determine the changes in the level of snow cover in relation to drought, satellite data has been used in order to determine the snow cover and meteorological station data has been applied to estimate the drought. In this regard, at the first stage, MoreIn this research, to determine the changes in the level of snow cover in relation to drought, satellite data has been used in order to determine the snow cover and meteorological station data has been applied to estimate the drought. In this regard, at the first stage, satellite data was collected from NASA's Web site from 1385 to 1395, and after geometric and atmospheric corrections based on the NDSI index and using of bands 4 and 6, was applied to determine the level of snow cover and drought rate has been estimated based on SPI index. Studies of snow cover reveal that the level of snow cover has been reduced and this is proportional to the drought rate, and the prevailing trend in the level of snow cover and SPI is a downward trend. However, in spite of the prolonged and increased SPI index, the level of snow cover has been reduced or vice versa. The reason for this can be investigated through the type of precipitation during these years and it is possible that most type of the precipitation, during the years in which snow cover has been less, has been rainy type and in the drought years with increased snow cover, type of downfall has been more snowy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
131 - Synoptic-thermodynamic analysis and modeling of heavy spring rains in Lorestan province
Farzad Nourizadeh Amir Gandomkar Morteza KhodagholiHeavy rains are one of the most important climatic hazards of Lorestan province, which has increased during recent decades in the context of climate change.In this research, the main goal is to reveal the synoptic-thermodynamic patterns that generate heavy spring rains MoreHeavy rains are one of the most important climatic hazards of Lorestan province, which has increased during recent decades in the context of climate change.In this research, the main goal is to reveal the synoptic-thermodynamic patterns that generate heavy spring rains in Lorestan province.In this regard, three categories of daily precipitation data from Lorestan stations, synoptic factors from NCEP/NCAR climate database, and upper atmosphere data from University of Wyoming database were used.First, using the 95th percentile method, the heavy rainfalls of the studied stations during the statistical period of 1995 to 2020 were determined in Lorestan province. Two cases of heavy spring rain (April 14, 2016, April 1, 2019) were extracted by applying the percentile method on the daily rainfall of Hamdid stations in Lorestan province. The results of synoptic analysis in the middle and upper level of the atmosphere, in the selected samples of the spring season, showed a deep trough over the eastern Mediterranean Sea and the western part of Iran, which has prepared the conditions for the ascent and entry of low pressure systems for the west of the country.At the surface of the earth, low pressure has prevailed in the west of Iran. The center of Wachrokhandi is formed over the Oman Sea and the Persian Gulf, which directs moisture from the Oman and Arabian Seas to the south and southwest of Iran. But the thermodynamic indicators did not reveal a significant difference in the atmospheric conditions of high spring rains. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
132 - Analysis of Synoptic Patterns of the Two Heaviest Rainfall Events in Zayandeh Rood Dam Basin
Shahideh Dehghan Amir Gandomkar Alireza AbbasiPrecipitation is one of the most important climatic elements, and its importance increases especially when heavy rains occur. Investigating rainfall or heavy rainfall in a region requires analysis of synoptic patterns. This research was conducted with the aim of investi MorePrecipitation is one of the most important climatic elements, and its importance increases especially when heavy rains occur. Investigating rainfall or heavy rainfall in a region requires analysis of synoptic patterns. This research was conducted with the aim of investigating the heavy rains in the catchment area of Zayandeh Rood Dam. For this purpose, the daily rainfall data of Kohrang, Fereydon Shahr, Shahrekord, Daran, Pol Zaman Khan, Farrokh Shahr, Chadegan and Saman stations during the statistical period of 1958-2019 were used. After examining the data, two rainfall events on 7/1/2004 and 12/3/2005, which were heavy rains (rainfall above 20 mm) in the study area, were selected and their co-occurrence patterns were analyzed. The data related to geopotential height of three levels of 500, 700 and 850 hectopascals was obtained from the NOAA site and its maps were drawn in Arc Gis software. The obtained results showed that heavy rains occur in the studied basin when cold air in higher latitudes moves to lower latitudes and obtains the necessary moisture over the Red Sea and the Mediterranean. When the trough axis is located in the eastern Mediterranean and there is a lot of humidity, it causes heavy rains in the studied area. In general, it can be stated that the heaviest rains in the studied area occur in March and the Mediterranean and Sudanese systems cause heavy rains in this area. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
133 - Simulating and predicting the effects of climate change using some new scenarios of SSP and CMIP6 models on rainfall changes in Ardabil County
Bromand Salahi Mahnaz Saber Fatemeh Vatanparast Ghaleh JuqIn this research, the annual rainfall changes of Ardabil City have been modeled and analyzed based on the downscaling of the output of some CMIP6 models under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios in the SDSM6.1 software. For this purpose, the daily precipitation of the MoreIn this research, the annual rainfall changes of Ardabil City have been modeled and analyzed based on the downscaling of the output of some CMIP6 models under the greenhouse gas emission scenarios in the SDSM6.1 software. For this purpose, the daily precipitation of the Ardabil synoptic station from 1979 to 2014 was considered as observational data, and its changes were analyzed for the next decades until 2043. The downscaled results in the base period under CanESM5 and NorESM2-MM general circulation models showed relatively good performance in estimating the monthly precipitation of Ardabil station. The results showed that in March, April, and May, there is an underestimation, in July there is an overestimation and in the other months there is a relatively good performance with the observational data. The annual average precipitation of the future period based on the output of the CanESM5 model under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios was calculated as 245 and 243 mm respectively, which shows a decrease of about 38 and 40 mm compared to the average of the historical period. The results of the Ardabil rainfall simulation with the CanESM5 model showed that on a monthly scale, the rainfall in the next 20 years in April and May under the SSP1-2.6 scenario is between 14 and 15 mm and under the SSP5-8.5 scenario between 16 and 17 mm will decrease and in July to September and December, it will increase by at least 5 mm compared to the base period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
134 - Drought effects on surface water quality in Golestan province for Irrigation Purposes, Case study: Gorganroud River
Nader Jandaghi Ali Heshmatpour Mojtaba Ghareh Mahmoodlu Saeedeh PasandIn this study, a part of the Gorganroud basin was selected to evaluate of the drought effect on 13 water physicochemical parameters. After collecting meteorological and hydrometric stations data in a period of 43-year (1350-1393), a 5-year drought index was determined u MoreIn this study, a part of the Gorganroud basin was selected to evaluate of the drought effect on 13 water physicochemical parameters. After collecting meteorological and hydrometric stations data in a period of 43-year (1350-1393), a 5-year drought index was determined using the standard precipitation index and moving average method. Then, the water quality parameters were obtained for a long-term and a drought period using the available hydrometric stations data. The average concentration of most of anions and cations, electrical conductivity, and sodium adsorption ratio have increased from upstream to downstream, so that, this increase in the downstream station is about seven times higher than its upstream station in the drought period. The average of anions, cations, electrical conductivity, and sodium absorption ratios were increase during the drought period compared to the long-term period. Using the Wilcox diagram, agricultural water quality is decreases in the direction of river flow, so that the water category changes from C2S1 (suitable for agriculture) in the upstream to C4S3 (harmful to agriculture) in the downstream. Therefore, it can be concluded that the occurrence of drought periods has a significant effect on the water quality factors in comparison with the long-term period, so that, the agricultural water quality drastically has reduced by a decrease in rainfall and subsequently decrease in river discharge within the drought period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
135 - Zoning of agricultural climate of corn crop in lorestan
gholamreza ahmadi parviz kardovani hossein mohammadiThis study analyzes the climatic-agricultural zoning of rain-fed corn in Lorestan province and its role in reducing environmental risks. The study method in this research is citation-descriptive in which the information (precipitation, temperature, etc.) of a 20-year st MoreThis study analyzes the climatic-agricultural zoning of rain-fed corn in Lorestan province and its role in reducing environmental risks. The study method in this research is citation-descriptive in which the information (precipitation, temperature, etc.) of a 20-year statistical period (1377-1397) has been gathered on a daily, monthly, seasonal and annual basis from 53 synoptic stations, climatology and rain gauge, inside and outside of this province. Then, considering the required conditions for this crop such as heat thresholds, growth period and the amount of water requirement, suitable growth zones has been determined by GIS and after that the zoning of agricultural climate of corn crop in this province has been mapped. On the base of the final obtained map, this province has 8588.15 kilometers of potential lands, 13938.13 square kilometers of semi-potential lands and 5631.57 square kilometers of non-potential lands. Kriging interpolation method has been used to create coordination in data integration and also auxiliary points to find the regions with the same amount of temperature and rainfall. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
136 - Downscaling of satellite-based precipitation considering the spatially heterogeneous relationship between precipitation and environmental variables
Arman Abdollahipour Hassan Ahmadi Babak AminnejadThe satellite-based precipitation products are one of the sources of rainfall estimation. Nonetheless, for usage in the local regions and, or for parameterizing of meteorological and hydrological models at basin scales, their spatial resolution is often coarse. Therefor MoreThe satellite-based precipitation products are one of the sources of rainfall estimation. Nonetheless, for usage in the local regions and, or for parameterizing of meteorological and hydrological models at basin scales, their spatial resolution is often coarse. Therefore, in this study, a downscaling– calibration method was developed for global precipitation measurement (GPM) satellite estimates (at 0.1° spatial resolution), for one year from 01/04/2014 to 31/03/2015, by considering the spatial heterogeneity of the relationship between precipitation and the environmental variables using the mixed geographically weighted regression (MGWR) model for Golestan province. In obtaining improved precipitation data with 1 km spatial resolution at an annual scale, the results showed that (1) the proposed method not only improved the spatial resolution of precipitation but also increased accuracy; (2) the downscaled and calibrated precipitation data (CC = 0.74, bias = 0.23) performed better than the original data (CC = 0.58, bias = 0.35) against ground observations. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
137 - Seasonal monitoring of drought in the country Using CRU network data
Azadeh ArbabyDrought is a natural and recurring feature of the climate that occurs in all climatic regions, but its structure and important effects vary from region to region.The main purpose of this study is to investigate the country's meteorological droughts over a long period of MoreDrought is a natural and recurring feature of the climate that occurs in all climatic regions, but its structure and important effects vary from region to region.The main purpose of this study is to investigate the country's meteorological droughts over a long period of time using network data with appropriate spatial and temporal resolution. Data analysis was performed using SPEI multivariate index. The results of drought calculation showed that in terms of time during the period (1966-2015) the rainfall of the cold period of the year decreases in general, the decrease in rainfall in different parts of the country mainly starts from the late 90s In the last years of the study period, except in autumn, we see more repetition of dry periods and unlike the late 80s, droughts have occurred more. Moderate drought intensities are significant and experience of severe droughts, which are among the most critical areas of the country. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
138 - Fractal analysis of daily rainfall in Karkheh and Dez catchment
ziba hasanvand Dariush Yarahmadi hasan lashkari Hamid MirhashemiPrecipitation is important climatic varibles which is directly involved the hydrological cycle. Iran is considered the most arid and semi – arid regions of the world due to lack rainfall and their inappropriate distribution, which has always faced water shortage i MorePrecipitation is important climatic varibles which is directly involved the hydrological cycle. Iran is considered the most arid and semi – arid regions of the world due to lack rainfall and their inappropriate distribution, which has always faced water shortage important limitations of natural resources.Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of extracting scale behavior and identifying (long – term and short – term) precipitation memory of two Karkheh and Dez catchment. For this purpose, Precipitation data of two Karkheh and Dez catchment were used over a period of 60 years (1959 – 2019). The results showed that the stations both areas have 2 rainfall regimes. In the study precipitation regimes all stations, two basins were identified. The small – scale precipitation regime has a long – term memory and a stable time series. However the large – scale precipitation regimes has a short – term memory and its time series is static except Doab and Darreh Takht station. both precipitation regimes show completely different scale behavior. the relationship between precipitation scale behavior and topography of the study area was calculated using pearson correlation test. The results show that there is no significant relationship between Karkheh basin both precipitation regimes. but in Dez basin, there is a significant correlation the small – scale precipitation regime, but there is no significant correlation the large – scale precipitation regime. This can be due to the conflicting and heterogeneous topographic situation in different parts of the region in Karkheh Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
139 - Sensitivity analysis of rivers in arid regions to changes in atmospheric elements under climate change conditions Case study: Central catchment area of Iran
forozan esvandzibaie Manochehr Farajzadeh asl Yousef GhavidelIn recent decades, climatic variables have become more pronounced, making the flow rate sensitive to these changes. This study used climatic data of 39 synoptic stations and nine hydrometric stations in the statistical period of 1994-2015 and prospective data of 2021-20 MoreIn recent decades, climatic variables have become more pronounced, making the flow rate sensitive to these changes. This study used climatic data of 39 synoptic stations and nine hydrometric stations in the statistical period of 1994-2015 and prospective data of 2021-2080. Maan Kendall test in MATLAB environment has been used to detect annual changes. Maan Kendall statistics, Sen's slope estimates, and coefficient variation have been used from the relevant formulas in the Excel environment. The results show that the trend of precipitation in region 1, temperature in region 7, and evapotranspiration in basin eight are increasing, and the most changes in flow sensitivity analysis to precipitation changes in region 8, the temperature in regions 3 and 8, and the results of sensitivity analysis to evapotranspiration parameter It is different. The temperature in the three scenarios studied had a significant upward trend, and the changes in precipitation were different in different regions, and the most changes in the decrease in precipitation were in regions 1 and 4. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
140 - Investigation of latent droughts hyper-arid climate of Iran (Case study: center, south and east of Iran)
Majid Gozalkhoo Reza Borna Hossein Mohammadi Farideh AsadianDrought is one of the climatic hazards that is of special importance. One of the problems of drought studies is the over-normal rainfall along with a relatively long period of drought. This divert SPI index; To the extent that sometimes, despite the occurrence of drough MoreDrought is one of the climatic hazards that is of special importance. One of the problems of drought studies is the over-normal rainfall along with a relatively long period of drought. This divert SPI index; To the extent that sometimes, despite the occurrence of drought, the index incorrectly shows that period as normal or even wet and leads to incorrect decisions in drought management plans. In this study, SPI drought index in 8 provinces with 27 synoptic stations located in the center, south and east of Iran with De Martonne hyper-arid climate in a period of 34 years (1985-2019) for a period of twelve months was calculated and analyzed. In this study, for the first time, the EP-SPI hybrid index is presented in which effective precipitation data was used as program input. Thus, the effect of older rainfall is reduced and the index provides a better estimate of drought. The results of statistical analysis of EP-SPI versus SPI values show a significant correlation at the level of 5%. 83% of the events with a difference of more than one in October to March and the highest difference between the two methods is equivalent to four levels of drought index displacement from wet Severe to moderate drought. In this study, it was found that 9.3% of the events of the 12-month drought remained hidden from the SPI index. Therefore, it can be said that the efficiency of EP-SPI method for detecting latent droughts in a period of twelve months is confirmed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
141 - Assessment of the Vegetation Dryness Index Based on Satellite Imagery in Sistan & Balouchestan province
kamal omidvar Masoumeh NabaviZadeh Hamid Reza Ghafarian malmiri Ahmad MazidiDecreasing of precipitation and Increasing of temperature, leads to extreme climate events such as drought which drastically impact on agricultural. Knowledge about the timing, severity and extent of drought can aid planning and decision-making. Drought indices derived MoreDecreasing of precipitation and Increasing of temperature, leads to extreme climate events such as drought which drastically impact on agricultural. Knowledge about the timing, severity and extent of drought can aid planning and decision-making. Drought indices derived from in-situ meteorological data have coarse spatial and temporal resolutions. Thus, obtaining a real-time drought condition over a large area is difficult. Therefore, drought indices which is derived from remote-sensing data, has been widely used for drought monitoring..In this study, Vegetation Drought Index (VDI) was evaluated in Sistan & Balouchestan Province To do this, Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MODIS (MOD02HKM and MOD11A1 ), Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and monthly precipitation data GLDAS from 2000 to 2018 were utilized to evaluate VDI.Accuracy of the Drought spatial distribution maps based on Pearson correlation coefficient was used data. Results indicate high significant correlation rate in the study area. Thus VDI, has the potential to monitor agricultural drought in the case of study and the drought indices based on remote sensing data could well use in drought early warning systems. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
142 - Analysis of the effect of precipitation anomalies during the occurrence of severe wet in southern Iran in the last three solar cycles
FARNAZ mashayekh hassan lashkari Seyed jamaledin Daryabary mohsen RanjbarIn this study, the impact of precipitation anomalies during the occurrence of severe and extremely severe Wet in southern Iran has been investigated. The research design involves the following steps. 1- The daily and annual rainfall data of the synoptic stations of the MoreIn this study, the impact of precipitation anomalies during the occurrence of severe and extremely severe Wet in southern Iran has been investigated. The research design involves the following steps. 1- The daily and annual rainfall data of the synoptic stations of the study area were extracted from the data of the Meteorological Organization. 2- The statistical base has been chosen to adapt to the solar cycles of a 33-year period corresponding to the years 1986-2019. 3- The number of 19 synoptic stations that had these conditions were selected. 4- Wet years were determined based on standard precipitation indices (SPI), Chinese Z (CZI), Z score (ZSI). 5- To check the anomaly of precipitation RAI index is used. 6- Based on the declared indicators, with the criteria of 30% repetition in selected stations, 6 severe wet and based on 50% repetition in selected stations, three severe wets have occurred in the statistical period of 33 years. 7- In this research, two seasons of 1992-1993 and 1995-1996 have been examined in terms of anomaly indices and other rainfall characteristics. In the wet and extremely severe years, the annual rainfall was more than two and sometimes three times the long-term average in many stations. In terms of the number of rainy days in the years 1993-1992 in 10 stations and in the wet years 1996-1995 in 17 stations, rainy days over 30 days have been recorded. However, the number of rainy days in both wet years does not show a proportional Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
143 - Analysis of the effect of drought phenomenon on dust events in different regions of Ghazvin province
Samira Zandifar mohammad khosroshahi Zohre Ebrahimi-KhusfiThis study was conducted to investigate the effect of drought on dust events in different cities of Qazvin province. Rainfall and temperature data were used to calculate the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and three-hourly dust events data wer MoreThis study was conducted to investigate the effect of drought on dust events in different cities of Qazvin province. Rainfall and temperature data were used to calculate the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and three-hourly dust events data were used to calculate the number of dusty days in the study stations. Based on the Spearman correlation coefficient, the impact of dust events on the drought phenomenon was investigated by considering different time delays. The maximum correlation between SPEI and the number of dusty days in Ghazvin city without considering the time delay of -0.38 and at the level of 99%, was significant, indicating the simultaneous impact of dust events from the drought phenomenon in the center of the province. The results also showed that the response time of dust events to meteorological drought with a delay of one year in Moallem Kalayeh city is significant at 90% confidence level (r = -0.52). Meanwhile, in other cities of Ghazvin province, no significant relationship was observed between the two phenomena of dust occurrence and meteorological drought. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
144 - A Comparative Study of the Performance of CHIRPS and ERA5-Land Precipitation Datasets in Detecting Droughts in Iran
Soroush Gholami Manuchehr Farajzadeh Yousef GhavidelThe aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of two precipitation datasets, CHIRPS and ERA5-Land, in detecting droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) over Iran. To achieve this, the raster data of the two datasets were evaluated using the stan MoreThe aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of two precipitation datasets, CHIRPS and ERA5-Land, in detecting droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) over Iran. To achieve this, the raster data of the two datasets were evaluated using the standardized precipitation index in 11 time steps, along with precipitation data from 110 meteorological stations and correlation analysis. The study results revealed that both CHIRPS and ERA5-Land datasets exhibited a high degree of correlation with station data in time steps ranging from 1 to 12 months across Iran, except for the northern region (RCHIRPS = 0.56, RERA5 = 0.76). Furthermore, the ERA5-Land dataset demonstrated an acceptable level of performance in higher time steps (24-72 months) compared to CHIRPS. Additionally, the study revealed that the areas affected by drought were relatively similar between both datasets for time steps up to 12 months, although the reliability of CHIRPS was questionable at higher time steps. Moreover, based on the results, it was found that in general, the accuracy and capability of databases in high time steps, with a statistical period length of 30-40 years, have been significantly reduced, and for longer time steps, a longer statistical period should be used. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
145 - Synoptic Investigation of heavy rainfall led to flooding on January 11, 2020 in southern Sistan and Baluchestan
Mahyar Ahadi Batool Zeynali Atefeh Hossini Sadr Amir Siah SaraniHeavy rains often lead to destructive floods, so discovering the prevailing pattern any climate system will allow for optimal analysis and forecasting. The present study was conducted to explain the synoptic of heavy rainfall leading to floods on 22 January 2020 in MoreHeavy rains often lead to destructive floods, so discovering the prevailing pattern any climate system will allow for optimal analysis and forecasting. The present study was conducted to explain the synoptic of heavy rainfall leading to floods on 22 January 2020 in southern Sistan and Baluchestan province. Maps of different levels of the atmosphere were analyzed before a day the flood. In order to accomplish this, the required data have been extracted from NCEP/NCAR affiliated with the National Organization of the Oceanography of the United States. In the next step, the geo-potential height, vorticity, omega, wind direction, wind speed, specific humidity, Moisture Flux Convergence maps and Hoff Miller diagram was drawn and analyzed. The results showed that settle of trough vorticity in Saudi Arabia zone in the middle of the atmosphere along with the jet core at the upper levels provided favorable conditions for unstable weather and ascent in the southeastern region of Iran, so that the omega reached 0.45 Pascal per second. Special humidity maps also showed that at the same time as the settle of trough vorticity in region, considerable moisture flowed from the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf to southeastern Iran. Therefore, rapid conversion of atmospheric moisture to precipitation in trough vorticity has been the main cause of heavy rainfall on the above day. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
146 - Climate change detection Persian Gulf region using data output CGCM. A1B
Zahra Hejazizadeh Mohamad salighe Samad KamaliFirst, it was determined to detect climate change of temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure and not particularly Persian Gulf, And was divided into two parts, the northern coast and South Coast. Specified period (2015-1970) was selected for the stations listed w MoreFirst, it was determined to detect climate change of temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure and not particularly Persian Gulf, And was divided into two parts, the northern coast and South Coast. Specified period (2015-1970) was selected for the stations listed were selected and were taken from the website of climate change Canada's network of station data (rainfall, temperature, heights, and not special). And then the same process was used for the next period (2050-2016). Given that the quantities mentioned factors are affecting climate change, The quantity mentioned in the current and future period, seasonally and annually were investigated based on the output of the model for all stations CGCM2.3.2a SR_A1B. The results showed that temperature changes in winter has changed dramatically in the southern part of the Persian Gulf, As predicted to rise in the coming period, roughly 3 degrees relative to the current time. In spring, temperatures are expected(Abu Musa area, Bandar Lengeh, Kish Island and western parts of the island) to increase compared to the current period in the southern coast of the Persian Gulf and The temperature will be 28 to 31 degrees Celsius.In the summer monsoon summer dominated by an increase in temperature across the Persian Gulf as the total area, the temperature is between 30 and 38 degrees Celsius. This chapter also predicts that in the coming period will be automatically increased as temperatures increase. In the autumn season is also expected to be higher than 28 ° C extended temperature zones and involve large part of the Persian Gulf. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
147 - Evaluation of air temperature and precipitation changes in the rainy region of western Iran under climate change conditions
Sadi Abdoli Ghasem Azizi Reza BornaThe phenomenon of climate change is one of the vital issues for human beings today. Investigation of air temperature and precipitation in the second rainiest region of the country, namely the western half; It is important. In the present study, observational data of 51 MoreThe phenomenon of climate change is one of the vital issues for human beings today. Investigation of air temperature and precipitation in the second rainiest region of the country, namely the western half; It is important. In the present study, observational data of 51 meteorological stations in the region were used as baseline data. For the next period up to 2061 horizon, the output of simulation models in the fifth report of climate change was used in two models of induced upper and middle limits, as microscale data. The non-parametric Man-Kendall test was used to investigate the trend of changes in air temperature and precipitation series. The results showed that in the base period based on observational statistics, in most areas in the series and the pattern of air temperature, there is a significant upward trend. For rainfall, a significant decreasing trend was observed in most areas and a negative slope was observed in all stations. Evaluation of the output of the models in comparison with the base period showed that in the western and Zagros regions of the country, the minimum and maximum air temperatures in the coming decades in the upper and middle limits pattern, respectively, will increase by 3.1 and 1.1 ° C, respectively. Will have. Precipitation in some stations will increase slightly in the spring months, but in the annual pattern in most areas the precipitation will be lower than the base period. Therefore, the rainy region of the western half in the Zagros region of Iran will be accompanied by an increase in air temperature and a decrease in precipitation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
148 - مدل سازی تغییرات شاخص سبزینگی پوشش گیاهی با بارش های جوی در منطقه زاگرس
منوچهر فرج زاده یوسف قویدل رحیمی فروزان عیسوند زیباییارزیابی ارتباط کمی بین الگوی پوشش گیاهی و عناصر اقلیمی یکی از کاربردهای سنجش از دور در مقیاس جهانی و منطقه ای می باشد. مطالعه بارندگی یک منطقه و اثرات مخرب یا مفیدی که بر جا می گذارد، شرایط را برای برنامه ریزی و حفظ و حراست از آن محیط، مدیریت بهتر خاک و شناخت وضعیت پوشش Moreارزیابی ارتباط کمی بین الگوی پوشش گیاهی و عناصر اقلیمی یکی از کاربردهای سنجش از دور در مقیاس جهانی و منطقه ای می باشد. مطالعه بارندگی یک منطقه و اثرات مخرب یا مفیدی که بر جا می گذارد، شرایط را برای برنامه ریزی و حفظ و حراست از آن محیط، مدیریت بهتر خاک و شناخت وضعیت پوشش گیاهی فراهم می کند.بارش پدیده ای است اقلیمی که مقدار آن در مکان پیوسته تغییر می کند. برای انجام این تحقیق از داده های بارش روزانه 36 ایستگاه اقلیمی منطقه زاگرس در بازه ی زمانی 2000 تا 2010 میلادی و تصاویر ماهواره MODIS و TRMM استفاده گردید. به همین منظور برای رسیدن به نتیجه مطلوب، منطقه مورد مطالعه را به سه قسمت، منطقه دارای سبزینگی حداکثر، متوسط و حداقل تقسیم شده است. با توجه به این که بیشترین تراکم سبزینگی در ایران در ماه می می باشد، اخذ و بررسی تصاویر ماهواره ای به نحوی بوده است که، محصولات 16 روزه پوشش گیاهی تمام روزهای ماه می را پوشش دهند و بتوان به برآورد درستی رسید و بر اساس آن نیز روزهای بارشی همان بازه زمانی ( 23 آوریل تا 9 ژوئن) انتخاب گردیده است. سپس برای هر دوره 16 روزه با دوره زمانی 11 سال یک میانگین بدست آورده که در مجموع برای هر فاکتور سه تصویر برای هر 16 روزه مطالعه گردید. نتایج بررسی ها نشان میدهد که مناطق با بارش بیشتر دارای سبزینگی بیشتری بوده و در بیشتر موارد تغییرات مکانی بارش باعث تغییر در میزان میانگین سبزینگی شده و همچنین شبیه سازی داده های بارش ماهواره ای با سبزینگی نسبت به بارش ایستگاهی سبزینگی بالاتری را پیش بینی می کند. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
149 - Detection of air temperature and precipitation changes in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad provinces under climate change conditions using MIROC5 model
Ahmad Fakhir Nasab Behlol Alijani Farideh AsadianThe abnormalities and the occurrence of climate hazards, the importance of the phenomenon of climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. Changes in air temperature and precipitation play a significant role in detecting the effects of climate change. In this study, MoreThe abnormalities and the occurrence of climate hazards, the importance of the phenomenon of climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. Changes in air temperature and precipitation play a significant role in detecting the effects of climate change. In this study, the perspective of changes in air temperature and precipitation in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad provinces was evaluated with a statistical approach. In this regard, the statistics of weather stations in the period (1986-2015) was used as the base period. For future period, the output of the MIROC5 as general circulation model (GCM) under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios in the form of downscaled data from the MarksimGCM database was used. Results of projecting the future period in the form of high and medium radiative forcing scenarios (RCP) shows an upward trend in the minimum and maximum temperatures of the study area in the future period compared to the base period. This incremental deviation is greater in the decades relative to the present period. Spatially to the time horizon 2061; areas with cooler and warmer temperatures will be added in the province. From the low altitudes or southern part of the province, with the passage to the following decades, the range of milder and warmer temperatures will gradually increase compared to the base period. The Precipitation parameters in the coming period will face a sharp and significant decrease compared to the base period, especially in the wet months of the year. This rainy region of high Zagros range,will face a significant decrease in rainfall in the coming period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
150 - The Role of Topography in Intensification of Precipitations in the south and South-west of Iran((Case Study:3 December 2015))
zynab mohammadi hasan lashkariIn this study, 10 precipitation systems were selected as prototypes between October and June 2016-2015. Then, 70 stations from the country's satellite stations were divided into four general groups in the south, southwest and center of Iran. The daily precipitation of t MoreIn this study, 10 precipitation systems were selected as prototypes between October and June 2016-2015. Then, 70 stations from the country's satellite stations were divided into four general groups in the south, southwest and center of Iran. The daily precipitation of the stations was extracted from each platform. To determine the patterns of precipitation occurrence in the Sudan low pressure region, atmospheric data from 1000 to 500 HPa are extracted from the NCEP / NCAR site and in the GRADS the maps of these ten systems were mapped. One of the most important systems that provide rainfalls in the Middle East is Sudan low pressure Lashkari (1996). The results showed that the systems entering Iran and the Middle East from the mentioned Sudan low pressure have a special mechanism. These systems have strong convection mechanisms because of having a thermal nature in their source and receiving a huge amount of moisture from the surrounding warm seas. They form deep boiling clouds and cause intensive and torrential showers when accompanied by deep waves in layers 700 and 850 HPa. Therefore, the cloud always forms in a convective way, and the height does not play a significant role in the intensification of its precipitations. In other words, it does not have a significant role by itself, at least in the windward slopes of the Zagros Mountains. The intensity of precipitation is, therefore, sometimes higher in the plains compared to the mountain summits. It seems heights play a more effective role in elevations above 1,500 meters in both windward and leeward slopes. However, in the Alborz mountain chain, there is a very clear and impressive correlation between precipitation and height because of re-creation of systems Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
151 - واکاوی همدیدی دینامیکی بارش ابر سنگین 4 آذر 1393 مطالعه موردی کهگیلویه و بویراحمد
کمال امیدوار نظام تنی رضا ابراهیمی ابراهیم قیاثیبارش علاوه بر مزیت های که دارد می تواند به عنوانیک بلایطبیعیخسارتهایسنگینمالیوجانیبرایانسانهادربرداشتهباشد. هدفازاینمطالعهبررسیوشناساییعواملهمدیدی،دینامیکیمؤثردربارشسنگین4 آذرماه 1393دراستانکهگیلویهوبویراحمداست. ابتدادادههایبارشروزانه 6 ایستگاههمدیدیازسازمانهواشناسیک Moreبارش علاوه بر مزیت های که دارد می تواند به عنوانیک بلایطبیعیخسارتهایسنگینمالیوجانیبرایانسانهادربرداشتهباشد. هدفازاینمطالعهبررسیوشناساییعواملهمدیدی،دینامیکیمؤثردربارشسنگین4 آذرماه 1393دراستانکهگیلویهوبویراحمداست. ابتدادادههایبارشروزانه 6 ایستگاههمدیدیازسازمانهواشناسیکهگیلویه و بویراحمداخذگردید. سپسدادههایسطوحفوقانیجوازسایتNCAR/NCEPاستخراجشد.نقشههایرودباد، نقشههایفشارسطحدریا،ارتفاعژئوپتانسیل،ضخامتجو،پیچانه،وزشرطوبتی،همگراییوواگراییرطوبت،آبقابلبارش،حرکاتقائمهوادرروزقبلوروز بعدازبارشبااستفادهازنرمافزارGrADSترسیم و تحلیل شدند. همچنین جهت شناسایی منابع رطوبتیازتصاویرماهوارهایTRMMنیزاستفادهشد. نتایجنشاندادالگویغالببارشتشکیل پدیدهبلوکینگبررویدریایمدیترانهوعمیقشدنناوهبررویکشورعراقتانواحیجنوبغربیایرانودرنتیجهریزشهوایسردوفرارفتحاصلازعرضهایجنوبیتر بوده کهسببرخداداینبارشسنگینشدهاستمنابععمدهرطوبتاینبارشدریایسرخ، خلیجفارس ومدیترانهجذب شدهاست. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
152 - FutureProjection of temperature and precipitation changes in the southern coast of Caspian sea
مریم کثیری مسعود گودرزی مسعود گودرزی غلامرضا جانباز قبادی غلامرضا جانباز قبادی صدرالدین متولی صدرالدین متولیTemperature and precipitation are among the most important climatic elements in the study of climate change due to significant temporal and spatial changes, and the projection of their changes is agreat importance in environmental planning and hazards. Therefore, in thi MoreTemperature and precipitation are among the most important climatic elements in the study of climate change due to significant temporal and spatial changes, and the projection of their changes is agreat importance in environmental planning and hazards. Therefore, in this study, future projection of temperature and precipitation changes in the southern cost ofcaspian sea was investigated. For this purpose, the data of CanESM2 model was used under three scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) using the SDSM downscaling model the temperature and precipitation changes in three different periods (2021-2050, 2051-2080- and 2081-2100) were examined in relation to the basic period (1989-2018). To calibration and validation the SDSM model, stationary observation data and NCEP data were used, as well as MAE, MSE, RMSE and R2 indicators. The results showed that the SDSM model has the ability to simulate temperature and precipitation changes in the study. Based on the results of the CanESM2 model output, the minimum and maximum temperatures will be increase in all studied periods and each period compared to the previous period, the average amount for the minimum temperature is 2 oC and for the maximum temperature, it will be 2.2 oC compared to the base period. Most of the temperature changes are related to the western regions of the study area. The projection of precipitation changes also shows that except ofGorgan station in other stations study, the amount of precipitation will decrease in all future periods compared to the base period, the average of which will be during the next period (2021-2100),Will be equal to 3.6%. Most of its changes are related to the central and western areas of the study area. Also, the RCP8.5 scenario showed the most changes in temperature and precipitation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
153 - An Agro-Climatic Zoning of dryland whea Based on the date of the first rainfall 10 mm In the cultivation season in Kermanshah
Rastegar Mohammadi Javad Khoshhal Dasjerdi Daryosh RahimiClimate is the most important factor that determines the type of crop to planting in each region. Due to the fact that the cultivation of dryland wheat is a priority in the province, this study was selected. In this study, climatic data of 6 synoptic stations (1989-2012 MoreClimate is the most important factor that determines the type of crop to planting in each region. Due to the fact that the cultivation of dryland wheat is a priority in the province, this study was selected. In this study, climatic data of 6 synoptic stations (1989-2012) and 8 climatology stations (2008-2013) were used. Due to the date of the beginning of autumn rains, planting date was suggested for each region of the province. Then different types of probabilistic distributions were fitted to the planting date. The best statistical distribution was selected from the coefficient of determination and different growth stages of dryland wheat were determined. From the precipitation element, the required types of precipitation maps were extracted. Also from the temperature element, various temperature maps and temperature stresses were prepared. Finally, climatic zoning map of dry land wheat were extracted and from this map the areas with no potential of cultivation were omitted. The final map comprised four very good, good, medium and weak areas. And maps of zoning for 5 mm Precipitation revealed that very suitable area for cultivation of wheat was located in some parts of the Northwest, West and South west of Kermanshah province. And suitable areas, was in the Northwest, West, Southwest and medium areas was located in Southwest, West,Center, North, Northeast, and southeast, And weak areas are often located in center and northeast. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
154 - پهنه بندی اقلیم کشاورزی محصول گندم دیم در استان لرستان با استفاده از تکنیکهای سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی
غلام رضا احمدی غلام رضا احمدی پرویز کردوانی پرویز کردوانی حسین محمدیاین مقاله می کوشد به منظور بهرهبرداری بهینه از شرایط اقلیم- زراعی و شناخت دقیق نیازهای آب و هوایی محصول گندم دیم به ارائه یک بانک اطلاعات تخصصی جهت کاهش مخاطرات کشاورزی(سرمازدگی و خشکسالی) بپردازد. از اینرو تحقیق حاضر به پهنه­بندی اقلیم-کشاورزی محصول گندم دیم در اس Moreاین مقاله می کوشد به منظور بهرهبرداری بهینه از شرایط اقلیم- زراعی و شناخت دقیق نیازهای آب و هوایی محصول گندم دیم به ارائه یک بانک اطلاعات تخصصی جهت کاهش مخاطرات کشاورزی(سرمازدگی و خشکسالی) بپردازد. از اینرو تحقیق حاضر به پهنه­بندی اقلیم-کشاورزی محصول گندم دیم در استان لرستان وبررسی نقش آن در کاهش مخاطرات محیطی پرداخته است. اطلاعات(بارش، دما و...) در یک دوره آماری 17 ساله(1377- 1394) مربوط به 53 ایستگاه سینوپتیک، کلیماتولوژی و باران سنجی استان و خارج استان تهیه و سپس با در نظرگرفتن شرایط موردنیاز محصول پهنه های مناسب رشد به کمک سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی مشخص و سپس نقشه پهنه­بندی اقلیم زراعی گندم دیم استان تهیه گردید. در نقشه نهایی 2559 کیلومتر مربع از اراضی استان دارای مناطق مناسب و مستعدکشت، 13978کیلومتر مربع دارای اراضی با استعداد متوسط، 9137 کیلومتر مربع از اراضی دارای استعدادضعیف و 85/2483کیلومتر مربع از اراضی بسیار ضعیف و غیر مستعد می باشند. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
155 - Classification of changes in the length of rainfall-dependent dry periods in Iran
seyed keramat hashemi anaTo study the behavior of dry period lengths, precipitation data were used on a daily scale for 45 synoptic stations in Iran (1985-2017). In order to spatially distribute the dry periods, sequences of 10, 20, 30 and more than 30 days were used and turned into zones. The MoreTo study the behavior of dry period lengths, precipitation data were used on a daily scale for 45 synoptic stations in Iran (1985-2017). In order to spatially distribute the dry periods, sequences of 10, 20, 30 and more than 30 days were used and turned into zones. The results showed that the highest frequency of long-term dry periods (30 days and more), with 86 events is related to the south-eastern part of Iran and Iranshahr station. The lowest frequency with 3 cases belonged to Rasht station on the southwest coast of the Caspian Sea in northern Iran. The second-order Markov probability distribution was used to evaluate the type of dry period distribution, return continuity and their probability of occurrence. Probability matrix and return period for 10, 20 and 30 day continuities were calculated on a monthly scale and it was determined that June and April were the shortest dry period return periods (18 days) in the arid central and eastern regions of the country with the highest probability of occurrence ( 89%) and the longest return period is related to October and November in the wetlands of the north and northwest coast of the country (338 days) and the lowest probability of occurrence (28%). Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
156 - Trend Analysis of Extreme Climate Changes Index’s in Precipitation and Temperature in Bushehr Province
Reza Borna Aigin JahanClimate variability and change behavior of extreme events is important. To review some events, some climate indices for the detection surface by the Working Group on Climate Change and the World Meteorological Organization and climatology Committee research program on c MoreClimate variability and change behavior of extreme events is important. To review some events, some climate indices for the detection surface by the Working Group on Climate Change and the World Meteorological Organization and climatology Committee research program on climate variability and predictability are introduced. In this paper, the changes in temperature and precipitation at the weather station 6 Bushehr Province during the period 1391-1371 using threshold values, and the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test for the presence of a linear trend has been used. The results show, Bushehr is highly exposed to the mean temperature, the frequency profile so reducing heating and cooling profiles. Cold nights and warm nights to other index increased thresholds of them have been impressive. Prolonged periods of increased summer heat in recent decades to a great show. DTR drop in the station area, tropical nights and warm nights increase in the length of the stations there. The research findings showed that: During the study period, a negative trend for the series of one-day maximum precipitation (Rx1day), maximum 5-day precipitation (Rx5day) and the simple daily intensity (SDII) can be seen in the province. The R10 index in research stations with positive trends. Check the index R20 and R25, shows that during the period studied, the research station has negative trends in the linear gradient. CDD index of consecutive dry days with precipitation have also increased in recent years coordinated. CWD index showed a decrease in rainfall in the region in recent years, coordinated by the number of consecutive wet days (CWD) is greatly reduced. Indexes Series R95 p and R99 p represent the province at the station volatility and decline in the latter years of the study period. Trends in Bushehr Province PRCPTOT index shows that the average rainfall in this region is low, thus decreasing trend is coupled with high volatility Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
157 - Climatic Classification for Hormozgan Province Based on Litynski Method
صدیقه پرون صدیقه پرون غلامرضا یاوری غلامرضا یاوری مریم رضازاده مریم رضازادهTraditional climate classification methods are very diverse. Despite their historical and comparative importance, these methods have weaknesses that reduce their efficiency. Implementing sustainable developments in disadvantaged areas in need requires precise planning b MoreTraditional climate classification methods are very diverse. Despite their historical and comparative importance, these methods have weaknesses that reduce their efficiency. Implementing sustainable developments in disadvantaged areas in need requires precise planning based on talents and resource constraints. The climate of each region is one of the most important determinants of local development potentials. The purpose of this research is to determine the climate of Hormozgan province based on the Litynski method which is described in this paper. In the Liyinski system, three primary elements of temperature, precipitation and barry coefficient are used. This method utilizes auxiliary indicators for categorical comprehensiveness, which includes three indicators of the coincidence, a dry season and the state of sunlight. Required data were collected from seven weather stations of Hormozgan province including Haji Abad, Minab, Bandarlenge, Qeshm, Rudan, Jask and Bandar Abbas during the years 2002-2017 and used in Excel and SPSS environment. Finally, the climate of stations was estimated using five indicators. The results showed that the two stations of Bandar Abbas and Qeshm are more similar in terms of climate. Rudan has a warm tropical climate based on temperature division. Jask also has the most dry months. Regarding the compliance index of all stations, the main precipitation is in the cold season. In terms of the radiation status index, the same results were obtained for all stations. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
158 - شناسایی الگوهای همدید بارشهای سنگین در حوضه مارون (مطالعه موردی: بارش 29 آبان 1392)
رضا برنادر این پژوهش با هدف تحلیل همدید بارش سنگین 29 آبان 1392 حوضه مارون، نخست رفتار زمانی بارش روزانه 8 ایستگاه حوضه طی دوره زمانی مورد مطالعه بررسی شد. تحلیل نقشه های فشار تراز دریا آشکار نمود که رخداد بارش سنگین 29 آبان 1392 حوضه مارون غالباً متأثر از حضور فرود دریای سرخ و Moreدر این پژوهش با هدف تحلیل همدید بارش سنگین 29 آبان 1392 حوضه مارون، نخست رفتار زمانی بارش روزانه 8 ایستگاه حوضه طی دوره زمانی مورد مطالعه بررسی شد. تحلیل نقشه های فشار تراز دریا آشکار نمود که رخداد بارش سنگین 29 آبان 1392 حوضه مارون غالباً متأثر از حضور فرود دریای سرخ و سامانه کم فشار سودانی منطبق بر خاستگاه فضایی دریاهای سرخ، خلیج فارس و جنوبغربی ایران بوده و بیشتر منشأ سودانی دارد. وقوع این بارشها در سطح hpa700 با استیلای الگو و زبانه های پرارتفاع بر روی جنوب غربی ایران و در سطح hpa500 با حضور ناوه عمیق در غرب خاورمیانه همراه است. بررسی نقشه های رطوبت و بردار باد نشان داد که مهمترین کانونهای رطوبتی تأثیرگذار بر بارشهای منطقه در دریاهای سرخ و مدیترانه قرار دارند. انطباق حرکت زبانه های هم سرعت باد (جنوب غربی- شمال شرقی) با هسته های بیشینه نم ویژه مستقر در دریای سرخ و مدیترانه باعث تزریق رطوبت به منطقه شده است. بررسی نقشه ادغامی تاوایی نسبی و ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل تراز میانی جو نشان داد که در هنگام وقوع بارش یاد شده، مرکز بیشینه تاوایی نسبی بر روی خلیج فارس و جنوب غرب ایران شکل گرفته است. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
159 - واکاوی تاثیر سامانه کم فشار سودانی بر بارش های رگباری ناحیه کوه پایهای داخلی ایران
محسن فنودی کمال امیدوار احمد مزیدی -
Open Access Article
160 - Projections of Variation in precipitation extream values in Sabzevar by LARS-WG downscaling model during 2011-2030 to 2046-2065
SeyedMohammad askarizadeh GolamAli mozaffari Ahmad mazidyfacing mankind ( Ipcc,2008 ). Infact one of the important aspects of climate change is understanding its behavior To have an outlook on future projections of climate extremes part Changes in extreme climate events has significant effects which caused a it to become as t Morefacing mankind ( Ipcc,2008 ). Infact one of the important aspects of climate change is understanding its behavior To have an outlook on future projections of climate extremes part Changes in extreme climate events has significant effects which caused a it to become as the most important challenges icularly precipitation, the outputs derived from three coupled general circulation models (HadCM3, CNCM3, NCCCSM) contributing to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCCAR4, under A1B emission scenarios have been downscaled by LARS-WG during three period 2011-2030, 2046-2065 for Sabzevar, station. The extremes are described by seven indices based on precipitation including (PRCPTOT,R10mm, R20mm,R95p,R99p,RX1day,RX5day,SDII) Results show that averages of Rx5day and SDII during The period of 2011-2030 will be probably increase under A2 sceranario . Inddition , alarge fraction of total annual precipitation is progected to occure in The form of heavy and showery events in 95th and 99th percentile . Regarding to The resultso incroases of 95th and 99th indices means That The frequency of flash floode and its intencity will be increased during 2011-2030 . Howerer , the intencity of precipitation and SDII will be probably to decreabse during2046-2064. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
161 - Change Time Study Pricipitain of Hamadan Province Using Statistic’s and Neural Network Methods
Zohreh Maryanaji Hamed AbbasiClimate change is one of the common problems in today’s societies and considerate as threat for earth. Increasing of earth temperature is cased to extensive changes in earth climates and also it laded to same variations of spatial and temporal of precipitation so MoreClimate change is one of the common problems in today’s societies and considerate as threat for earth. Increasing of earth temperature is cased to extensive changes in earth climates and also it laded to same variations of spatial and temporal of precipitation so that these variations cased to a lot of damages especially in last decade. This study to identify of variations and the trend of season and duration of precipitation in different times intervals. Then it is predicted same changes in the future by the method of artificial neural network. In this study we have us of the data from two synoptic stations Hamadan and Nojeh .The statistic’s years in this study; it seems the rainfall season in the central part of Hamadan province in started later and ended later in last decade. In other words the starter of rainfall season in Hamadan which occurred in the fall season, at present tend to ward the winter season and the fall season is more dryer than before ages. This shows that the rainfall season is interchanged in this district. in using of the method of artificial neural network we should consider to two main points in the predicting of precipitation the first one, the low attention of this method in the long –term predicting of precipitation and the second one, the exaggerate in the minimum and maximum amount of precipitation in different seasons of year. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
162 - تحلیل ارتباط الگوهای پیوند از دور با خشکسالی حوضه قرهقوم با استفاده از مدل شبکه عصبی
مونا فلاحزاده پرویز رضایی سعید اسلامیان علیرضا عباسیدر این پژوهش نقش الگوهای پیوند از دور در رخداد خشکسالیهای حوضه قرهقوم مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. در این راستا دادههای بارش 30 ایستگاه بارانسنجی و سینوپتیک و نیز دادههای مربوط به 32 نمایه عددی پیوند از دور از سایت نوآ طی دوره آماری 1987-2013 اخذ گردید. در ابتدا داد Moreدر این پژوهش نقش الگوهای پیوند از دور در رخداد خشکسالیهای حوضه قرهقوم مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. در این راستا دادههای بارش 30 ایستگاه بارانسنجی و سینوپتیک و نیز دادههای مربوط به 32 نمایه عددی پیوند از دور از سایت نوآ طی دوره آماری 1987-2013 اخذ گردید. در ابتدا دادههای شاخص بارش استاندارده شده با روش تحلیل عاملی طبقهبندی، سپس رابطه میانگین شاخص خشکسالی هر پهنه با تک تک الگوهای پیوند از دور ارزیابی شد. همچنین مقادیر شاخص خشکسالی با شاخصهای از دور به روش شبکه عصبی مصنوعی شبیهسازی گردید. نتایج نشان داد 5 شاخص پیوند از دور نوسان دههای اقیانوس آرام، نینو4، چند متغیره انسو، دو قطبی اقیانوس هند و نوسان مادن جولیان در منطقه 1 اقیانوس آرام با پهنه اول (عامل اول) در مقیاس زمانی 6 ماهه در ارتباط بوده و بهترین نتایج را با کمترین خطا و بیشترین ضریب همبستگی ارائه دادهاند. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
163 - پیشبینی بارش فصلی با حداقل متغیرهای اقلیمی مطالعه موردی: ایستگاه کرمان
Fateme Bayatani غلام عباس فلاح قالهری غلام عباس فلاح قالهری الهام فهیمی نژاد الهام فهیمی نژاد پیش­بینی بارش و برآورد نزولات جوی، به عنوان یکی از مهمترین پارامترهای اقلیمی در حوزه مدیریت منابع آبی، از اهمیت ویژه­ای برخوردار است. بنابراین در این مقاله، امکان کاربرد شبکه عصبی در برآورد بارش با حداقل پارامترهای اقلیمی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. به این منظو More پیش­بینی بارش و برآورد نزولات جوی، به عنوان یکی از مهمترین پارامترهای اقلیمی در حوزه مدیریت منابع آبی، از اهمیت ویژه­ای برخوردار است. بنابراین در این مقاله، امکان کاربرد شبکه عصبی در برآورد بارش با حداقل پارامترهای اقلیمی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. به این منظور از شبکه عصبی پرسپترون چند لایه با قانون پس انتشار خطا و الگوریتم سیگموئید همراه با داده های میانگین رطوبت نسبی(meanHR)، کمینه رطوبت نسبی (minHR)، بیشینه رطوبت نسبی (maxHR)، میانگین دما (meanT)، کمینه دما (minT)، بیشینه دما (maxT)، میانگین فشار (meanP)، کمینه فشار (minP) و بیشینه فشار (maxP) ماه اکتبر ایستگاه هواشناسی سینوپتیک کرمان، طی دوره آماری 2014-1969 به عنوان ورودی مدل استفاده گردید. نتایج نشان داد در صورت کمبود پارامترهای اقلیمی، تنها با اندازه گیری minT و meanT میتوان با خطایی معادل 8/9 میلیمتر، برآورد مناسبی از بارش با استفاده از شبکه­های عصبی مصنوعی در منطقه مورد مطالعه به دست آورد. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
164 - Functional Analysis of the dynamic equilibrium of monthly and annual precipitation in Shiraz synoptic stations
Abdolali Kamane Mahdi Narangifard Ahmad Mazidi Gholamali MozafariApplying the logic of chaos, fractal and fuzzy understanding of many details natural phenomena so far unexplained and were described as helpful and resourceful. In this framework with the aim of determining the equilibrium dynamics governing the behavior of long-term st MoreApplying the logic of chaos, fractal and fuzzy understanding of many details natural phenomena so far unexplained and were described as helpful and resourceful. In this framework with the aim of determining the equilibrium dynamics governing the behavior of long-term structural (1951-2014) monthly and annual rain in Shiraz synoptic stations parameters of nonlinear analysis functions simplex is used. In order to analyze the logic of the Shiraz station is the process algebraic of frequency of occurrence of each of the real values of monthly and annual rain in a chordal matrix was used, Then the correlation between the inputs (x) and outputs (y) trigonometric functions resulting from chordal matrix absolute values of rain and the frequency of their occurrence calculation was extracted the desired Criteria. Research findings showed that the dynamics of monthly rain Shiraz argument simplex to algebra as a function of Y = 0/5717x-906 is defined And given that the correlation between the input and output simplex is at its highest among the functions resulting from chordal matrix calculation and compliance with the Criteria 2kΠ cycle trigonometric quadratic polynomial than the vectors x & y with a correlation more than 0/5 (0/6) is, Therefore governing structure of the fractal parameters of monthly rain will be followed. This is process annual time format follows the same structure. In other words structure monthly and annual rain in Shiraz parameter of the chaos structure to the fractal structure and of Disequilibrium to Nonequilibrium desire is Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
165 - Assessment of NARX Neural Network in Prediction of Daily Precipitation in Kerman Province
Kamal Omidvar Maasomeh Nabavizadeh Meysam SamarehghasemPrecipitation is one of important parameters of climatology and atmospheric science that have more importance in human life. recently, extensive flood and drought entered many damage to most parts of the world. Precipitation forecasting has important role in management MorePrecipitation is one of important parameters of climatology and atmospheric science that have more importance in human life. recently, extensive flood and drought entered many damage to most parts of the world. Precipitation forecasting has important role in management and warning of this problem. Due to the interaction of various meteorological parameters in the calculation of rain, leads it to a very irregular and chaotic process. The purpose of this study, assessment of forecasting precipitation, using data from meteorological stations of the using common statistical period (2012-1989) in Kerman, Baft, Miandeh Jiroft. In this way, to the training of the artificial neural networks with structure Perceptron, Nonlinear Autoregressive External. Effective Factors in the rain, as input for Artificial Neural Networks and precipitation was considered as the output of the Network. Statistic indicators MSE, R were used for performance evaluation of the models. The analysis of output results from, Nonlinear Autoregressive External Neural Networks shown that these models have better accuracy and a high ability to forecast precipitation than Perceptron Neural Networks. The results showed the more exact method concerned to the (NARX) model. The 42 models with all parameters with Levenberg Marquat rule and sigmoid function had the best topology of the model in three stations. Overall, evaluation of NARX results showed that the errors of ANN were negligible. The NARX showed high sensitivity to relative humidity. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
166 - Synoptic analysis of devastating floods July 2015 in north of Iran
Mahmoud Ahmadi Farzaneh JafariDreadful and torrential precipitations in the summer cause heavy damages in the sections of constructive and agricultural installation in different regions of the country because of their unexpected. In this research we proceed to synoptic and thermodynamic of torrentia MoreDreadful and torrential precipitations in the summer cause heavy damages in the sections of constructive and agricultural installation in different regions of the country because of their unexpected. In this research we proceed to synoptic and thermodynamic of torrential flooding of 28 to 31 july2015 in the half north, west and central of the country. First with using territorial stations data the precipitation of under studied stations analyzed and then with using upper atmospheric data and tracing the related maps, precipitations analyzed. The results showed that spreading the black sea high pressure on north half of the country and penetrating the Warm low pressure of Persian Gulf-Pakistan from south, meanwhile, northern flowing cause severe gradient pressure in the sea level. In the middle levels stretching the trough axis from central Asia till south of Iran cause severe ascending of air. Analyzing the omega maps on Iran indicates the settlement of maximum negative omega in north of Iran. Also analyzing of moisture advection showed that in the levels of 1000 and 850HPA, the black and Caspian seas are the sources of supplying moisture. But in the levels of 700 and 500 HPA, the Oman and Arab Sea and India peninsula has the main rule in transferring the moisture on the studied region.The point worthy of attention is that the jet stream located only above the level of 300 hpa and upper the latitude of 38 northern degree and out of the occurrence boundary of supper heavy precipitation of ending days in July 2015.And it's impact was indirect which caused offloading the warm and humid air to the through and consequently strengthen the instability. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
167 - Analysis and Comparison of SPI and GRI Indices in Assessing Meteorological Drought and Groundwater, Case Study: Mehran Plain, Ilam Province
Ali Abbasinia jafar morshedi Mnizheh Zohoriyan Jebrael GhorbaniyanDroughts are one of the most devastating weather events, causing significant damage to both natural resources and human life. The purpose of this study is to analyze and compare meteorological drought and groundwater of Mehran plain using standardized precipitation inde MoreDroughts are one of the most devastating weather events, causing significant damage to both natural resources and human life. The purpose of this study is to analyze and compare meteorological drought and groundwater of Mehran plain using standardized precipitation index (SPI) and groundwater index (GRI). In order to study the meteorological drought, the monthly rainfall information of Mehran synoptic station was used and in order to study the dryness of the groundwater of Mehran plain, the changes of groundwater level of Mehran plain were analyzed based on water level data of 23 observation wells. Also, SPI index was used for meteorological drought monitoring and GRI index was used for hydrological drought monitoring of Mehran plain. The statistical period required for drought analysis of a 25-year statistical period from the water year of 75-74 to 97-96 was selected. After determining the moisture periods of the indices, monthly groundwater zoning maps were prepared. To prepare these maps, the kriging model was selected from among different models. Finally, by applying the optimal half-change model in kriging and entering groundwater data as a point layer, raster maps were prepared using Arc GIS software. The results of the study of SPI index show that during the statistical periods in question, 4 severe droughts occurred, the most severe of which was 90-91, with a value of SPI index of -1.73. Also, the results obtained from the GRI index in the region show that an 11-year drought period of groundwater occurred, ie it started from the water year 88-87 and continued until the water year 98-97, the most severe of which was 90-91 with the amount of The index is -1.11. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
168 - پیش بینی وقوع بارش روزانه با استفاده از داده های هواشناسی روزهای قبل (مطالعه موردی: شهر اصفهان)
Ghorban Mahtabi فرشید تاران سعید مظفریهدف از این تحقیق، پیش­بینی وقوع بارش روزانه شهر اصفهان با استفاده از داده­های هواشناسی 1 تا 7 روز قبل می­باشد. برای این منظور،داده­های هواشناسی دوره 2009-2000 با استفاده از مدل­های هوشمند بردار پشتیبان، k-نزدیک­ترین همسایگی، شبکه عصبی مصنوعی و در Moreهدف از این تحقیق، پیش­بینی وقوع بارش روزانه شهر اصفهان با استفاده از داده­های هواشناسی 1 تا 7 روز قبل می­باشد. برای این منظور،داده­های هواشناسی دوره 2009-2000 با استفاده از مدل­های هوشمند بردار پشتیبان، k-نزدیک­ترین همسایگی، شبکه عصبی مصنوعی و درخت تصمیم بررسیگردید. نتایج نشان داد که در هر چهار روش، دقت پیش­بینی بهترین سناریوها با استفاده از داده­های 6 و 7 روز قبل، کمتر از 75 درصد بود، اما با استفاده از داده­های روزهای 1 تا 5 روز قبل، بارش روزانه با دقت بیش از 80 درصد پیش­بینی شد. عملکرد روش درخت تصمیم بهتر از سه روش دیگر بود و به علت ارائه درخت تصمیم­گیری، نتایج سناریوهای 1 تا 5 روز قبل این روش ارائه شد. نتایج سناریوها با استفاده از داده­های 1 تا 3 روز قبل نشان داد که رطوبت نسبی هوا مناسب­ترین پارامتر برای پیش­بینی وقوع بارش روزانه است، اما در شرایط استفاده از داده­های 4 و 5 روز قبل، دمای هوا مناسب­ترین پارامتر برای انجام پیش­بینی بود. در نهایت عملکرد بهترین سناریوها با استفاده از داده­های دوره 2016-2010 صحت­سنجی گردید. بهترین نتایج در بخش صحت­سنجی به ترتیب مربوط به سناریوی 1 روز قبل(با پارامتر حداقل رطوبت نسبی) و سناریوی 4 روز قبل(با پارامتر دمای حداکثر) بود. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
169 - تحلیل روند تغییرات بارش در شرق گیلان
پرویز رضائی آتیه قربان پورپدیده تغییر اقلیم یکی از مسائل بسیار مهم در محافل علمی در سطوح مختلف جهانی محسوب می گردد و بنوعی ابعاد تاثیرات آن جهانی بوده و اکوسیستم کره زمین را تحت الشعاع خود دارد. محدوده مورد مطالعه در این تحقیق شرق استان گیلان در شمال کشور است. داده های مورد استفاده از اطلاعات 13 Moreپدیده تغییر اقلیم یکی از مسائل بسیار مهم در محافل علمی در سطوح مختلف جهانی محسوب می گردد و بنوعی ابعاد تاثیرات آن جهانی بوده و اکوسیستم کره زمین را تحت الشعاع خود دارد. محدوده مورد مطالعه در این تحقیق شرق استان گیلان در شمال کشور است. داده های مورد استفاده از اطلاعات 13 ایستگاه هواشناسی مستقر در سطح منطقه و مجاور آن در یک دوره آماری40 ساله (1394-1354) بدست آمده است. روش مورد استفاده در تحقیق، آزمون آماری و گرافیکی من _کندال است. نتایج حاصل از روش نشان می­دهد، نوسانات بارشی در این ایستگاه­ها از روند ثابتی تبعیت نمی کند. به این صورت که در اکثر ماه­ها تغییر مشاهده شده در جهت افزایشی و روند مثبت بوده است. اما در فصل پاییز و زمستان، هیچگونه تغییر مهمی مشاهده نمی شود. همچنین بالاترین روند تغییرات سالانه در جهت مثبت در ایستگاه لاهیجان و سپس پارودبار بدست آمده است. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
170 - بررسی ارتباط دمای سطح آب شمال اقیانوس هند با بارش های فصلی ایران
امان اله فتح نیا محمد احمدی روشنک یاریدر این پژوهش رابطۀ دمای شمال اقیانوس هند و بارش 50 ایستگاه سینوپتیک طی دورۀ 2014-1961 مطالعه شد. با استفاده از سری زمانی دادهها، بهروش پیرسون ارتباط بارش با نوسان و تغییرات واداشت دمایی بررسی شد. ابتدا دادههای ماهانه دمای شمال اقیانوس هند از مرکز هواشناسی جهانی NOAA Moreدر این پژوهش رابطۀ دمای شمال اقیانوس هند و بارش 50 ایستگاه سینوپتیک طی دورۀ 2014-1961 مطالعه شد. با استفاده از سری زمانی دادهها، بهروش پیرسون ارتباط بارش با نوسان و تغییرات واداشت دمایی بررسی شد. ابتدا دادههای ماهانه دمای شمال اقیانوس هند از مرکز هواشناسی جهانی NOAA تهیه گردید. سپس با طبقهبندی شاخص NINDSST دو بازه 5 ساله مقادیر بالا و پایین دما، نقشههای همدید تراز سطح زمین و 500 هکتوپاسکال ترسیم شد. یافتهها نشان داد؛ هرچه دمای شمال اقیانوس هند بالاتر رود، به ترتیب بارش فصل پاییز با همبستگی 17/0 و سطح معنیداری 03/0 و فصل تابستان با همبستگی 12/0 و سطح معنیداری 05/0 در بیشتر نقاط کشور افزایش مییابد، اما بارش فصل زمستان و بهار تغییر معناداری نمیکنند. سازوکار حاصل از واکاوی همدید نشاندهندۀ تقویت بیشتر ناوه مدیترانه و کمفشار دریای سرخ (در فصل پاییز) همزمان با افزایش دمای شمال اقیانوس هند و افزایش بارش این سامانهها است، اما در دماهای پایین، عمدتاً در فصل پاییز شرایط همدید منطقه، وارونه میشود و بارش کاهش مییابد. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
171 - الگوهای جوی تداوم بارش های غرب ایران
شیدا منصوری رضا دوستانالگوهای جوی تداوم بارش های غرب ایرانبر مبنای 268 تداوم دو روزه و 162 تداوم سه روزه و بیشتر باروش تحلیل مولفه اصلی و خوشه بندیباداده ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل متر تراز 500 هکتوپاسکال از مرکز ملی پیش بینی محیطی و تحقیقات جویدر دوره 1961-2010 تعیین گردید.چنانکهدر تداوم دوروزه بارش Moreالگوهای جوی تداوم بارش های غرب ایرانبر مبنای 268 تداوم دو روزه و 162 تداوم سه روزه و بیشتر باروش تحلیل مولفه اصلی و خوشه بندیباداده ارتفاع ژئوپتانسیل متر تراز 500 هکتوپاسکال از مرکز ملی پیش بینی محیطی و تحقیقات جویدر دوره 1961-2010 تعیین گردید.چنانکهدر تداوم دوروزه بارش، حرکت نصف النهاری بادهای غربی در خاورمیانه جدای از آرایش مداری بادهای غربی درعرض میانی غالب است.،اما آرایش نصف النهاری یکدست بادهای غربی از عرض بالا تا دریای سرخ، وقوع سردچال آناتولی و عمیق تر شدن فرود شرق مدیترانه در سطوح میانی جو، همراه با ترکیب دو پرفشار سیبری و جنوب اروپا تا شمال آفریقا در دو طرف کم فشارهای مدیترانه شرقی و سودان در سطح زمین، شکل گیری سیکلون های قوی تر و تداوم بیشتر بارش های غرب ایرانرا موجب میگردند.چنانکه در الگوهای جوی،جریانات مرطوب با جهت جنوب و جنوب غربی با موقعیت واچرخند غالب در عمان و چرخند های مدیترانه شرقیو غرب ایران، با گذر از جلگه عراق و خوزستان بر ارتفاعات بلند زاگرس صعود و بیشترین ریزش ها مداوم را در غرب ایران به همراه دارند. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
172 - Investigating the effects of rainfall and drought changes on Zarivar Lake ecosystem
Amir Gandomkar Nader Fallah Alireza AbbasiWatersheds and wetlands are the most biologically diverse ecosystems on Earth due to the presence of water. They are spread all over the planet and play an important role in the water cycle. Due to the importance of this issue, the present study was conducted to investi MoreWatersheds and wetlands are the most biologically diverse ecosystems on Earth due to the presence of water. They are spread all over the planet and play an important role in the water cycle. Due to the importance of this issue, the present study was conducted to investigate the changes in precipitation and drought in Zarivar Lake and their effects on the lake ecosystem. In this regard, the annual rainfall statistics of Zarivar Lake station during the statistical period of 1397-1397 has been used. After normalization of the studied data using Anderson Darling test, it was found that they have an abnormal distribution, so the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to calculate their trend. Then SIAP index was used to study the lake drought. The results show an increasing trend of precipitation during the statistical period under study. Studies on drought also showed that the years 1999 to 2003 were part of the dry years of the lake. During the period 1383-1387, the conditions were almost normal. Wet conditions have prevailed on the lake since 2008. The year 1397 also has very wet conditions. Due to the fact that 1397 was a very rainy year, but it will cause overflow and flow of water in Zarivar river and also strengthen and nourish groundwater in the southern plain of the lake and increase water quality along the river and play a significant role in reviving and strengthening the lake ecosystem. has it. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
173 - Classification of residential and tourism comfort using climatic indicators (Case study: Ilam province, Iran)
Ali Arefi Mohsen Ranjbar Reza BornaIdentifying areas prone to residential comfort and tourism based on climatic parameters is one of the most used topics for climate, geography and tourism researchers. Considering the importance of the topic, the current study aimed to classify the climatic and tourism c MoreIdentifying areas prone to residential comfort and tourism based on climatic parameters is one of the most used topics for climate, geography and tourism researchers. Considering the importance of the topic, the current study aimed to classify the climatic and tourism comfort using climatic indicators in Ilam province. First, using climatic data of rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and speed from six synoptic stations, descriptive statistics were analyzed. The statistical period of the study case was 30 years (water year 2010-2018 to 2019-2019). Next, using Baker's climatic indices, effective temperature and probability distribution, the degree of climatic comfort was determined for each month. This research analyzed the consequences of changes in temperature and precipitation on the climatic comfort of Ilam province in terms of geographical territory. The results of Baker's climatic indices, effective temperature and probability distribution showed that the months of April, May, October, November and March are prone to climatic comfort. According to the results, the cities of Darreh Shahr and Lomar have the greatest potential for climatic comfort in the months of transition from heat to cold (October and November) and cold to heat (April and May). In general, the northern and eastern cities of Ilam province have higher climatic comfort in spring and autumn. On the other hand, in winter season, the southern and border cities (Mehran and Dehloran) have a comfortable climate. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
174 - Investigation of arid vegetation compatibility toward precipitation variation with NDVI index (a case study, Ardakan-Aghda plain)
منیرالسادات Tabatabaii Zadeh فاطمه Hadian S.Z Hosseini جلال Barkhordari حسن KhosraviDrought monitoring is a important management program, but have some limitation as economical, huge and arduous natural areas. Then nowadays have been used satellite images for drought monitoring and management of areas as fastest and low cost method. In this research ha MoreDrought monitoring is a important management program, but have some limitation as economical, huge and arduous natural areas. Then nowadays have been used satellite images for drought monitoring and management of areas as fastest and low cost method. In this research have been used NOAA satellite images and annual/seasonal precipitation data during 2005-1982 then studied effect of Precipitation on vegetation cover in a part of Yazd province (Ardakan- Aghda area). The 92 precipitation maps have been prepared For determination of precipitation value in every vegetation type by using climate data and classified by distance weighting interpolation method. The results show an alone vegetation index could not define vegetation cover of study area that necessary to used multi-regression methods with other climatic factors. Furthermore, this index is not useful for arid area because have very low correlation between INDVI index and precipitation then is necessary to use other indexes and satellite images with more quality. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
175 - Prediction Probable Flood and Maximum precipitation Using Poldukhtar Basin Suffered partial Series
مهدی Mehdinasab تقی Tavoosi رضا MirzaeiFloods are natural phenomenon that human societies have accepted it as an inevitable event but the event size and frequency of flooding is caused by several factors That is, depending on climatic conditions, natural and geographical each region changes. Annually in diff MoreFloods are natural phenomenon that human societies have accepted it as an inevitable event but the event size and frequency of flooding is caused by several factors That is, depending on climatic conditions, natural and geographical each region changes. Annually in different parts of the world, many people's lives and properties due to flood risk falls And millions of tons of precious soil are destroyed by floods. One of the world is a flood natural disaster losses Bartryn. Statistical analysis has shown that about 70 percent of flood damage is caused by natural disaster in Iran This study estimated the a probable flood and maximum precipitation using Poldukhtar suffered minor series is action. The number 20 Heavy rainfall 24Hours over 40 millimeters The number 30 seals with more than 500 cubic meters per second was chosen discharge. Selection criteria for floods had chosen the first seal is attached to the previous flood. Thus, the interval between Two flood peaks from each other, must be at least 3 times the amount of time discharge began to reach the stage of the flood hydrograph peak flow needs. Secondly, the amount of discharge after the first flood and before the second flood in less than one third flood peak is reached first.The series detailed method to estimated the flood discharge and The maximum sustained 24-hour rainfall return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years has been And the results showed that each year, probably 99.99 percent slapped with a flow rate 606.32 cubic meters and a 24-hour precipitation amount of 43.07 millimeters Poldukhtar happening in theBasin Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
176 - Flood warning system established by the integrated management of hydrological and hydraulic modeling
وحید Yazdani احسان Behjati عاطفه ArfaAbstract Study more about the different points of view Hydrometolojy flood drainage systems and catchment model analysis of rainfall, runoff and flood designated area according to hydrological and hydraulic retention basins, not only financially, but also t MoreAbstract Study more about the different points of view Hydrometolojy flood drainage systems and catchment model analysis of rainfall, runoff and flood designated area according to hydrological and hydraulic retention basins, not only financially, but also the legal and the pre warning system to predict and help the decoder is represents the flooding. The purpose of this study is to provide an appropriate mechanism to establish flood warning system hydrological model HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS hydraulic model for the catchment dam is Garmi Chay. After restructuring the data in hydrological studies, flood frequency analysis, maximum a day at selected stations has been distributed to all stations, the three-parameter normal distribution. Applying the ratio of the maximum instantaneous flood peak flood one day, maximum instantaneous flood levels with return periods Garmi Chay River at the dam site Garmi Chay was calculated. The model calculations show that the contribution of the sub-basin outlet flood peak flows sub watershed is not necessarily proportional to the sub basin with high peak flows are not necessarily more effective flood basin outlet. Based on the results pre alerts dam hot tea in Group C (no more than 3 to 6 hours) floor was packed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
177 - Phylogenetic survey of chloroplast matK sequences in some medicinal plant species of Mentheae tribe (Lamiaceae) with emphasis on Zhumeria majdae Rech. & Wendelbo.
Hamed Khodayari Elham Khalili fourogh Sanjarian Yunes AsriThe aim of this research is elucidation of molecular taxonomic and phylogenetic relationship between Zhumeria and other genera of Mentheae tribe using sequencing of chloroplastic matk gene. The aim of this research is taxonomic and phylogenetic status of Mentheae tribe MoreThe aim of this research is elucidation of molecular taxonomic and phylogenetic relationship between Zhumeria and other genera of Mentheae tribe using sequencing of chloroplastic matk gene. The aim of this research is taxonomic and phylogenetic status of Mentheae tribe with emphasis Zhumeria majdae Resh. f. & Wendelbo. (Moorkhosh) belonged to Lamiaceae family that endemic of Hormozgan province, Iran and it have not been reported in elsewhere, using sequencing of chloroplastic gene matK. Zhumeria majdae has long been used in traditional medicine as antispasmodic, antimicrobial, carminative especially in infants and for dysmenorrheal. The therapeutic benefits of medicinal plants are often attributed to their antioxidant properties. It is used for treatment of the stomach ulcer, headache, reduce pain, cold and healing of wounds. The methods are as follow: Extraction of DNA, amplification of a part of matk by specific primers, DNA sequencing, and sequence analysis by FINTCH TV software, drawing phylogenetic tree by PAUP software. The heuristic search of the Cladogram analysis resulted in 10000 shortest trees, 3 tree with lengh of 20 steps and statistic coefficient (Retention index = 0.963) and Consistencies index=0.950. In the trees resulting from maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood methods, Mentheae tribe was monophyletic and composed of three distinct monophyletic clades (subtribes Menthinae, Salviinae and Nepetinae). The The tree derived from the combined data matrix, including in-group and out-group taxa, has a total of 74 sequences. results of this study showed that Zhumeria majdae grouped with Salvia clad. Our results comfirm previous studies done by morphological, trnL-F, psbA-trnH and ribosomal DNA phylogeny. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
178 - Genealogy and Study of the Semantic Evolution of the Quranic Word "Sarad"
Mojtaba Noroozi Mahnaz TafaghodiAccording to some thinkers, sarad is one of the words entered into the Arabic language. For this word, upon entering the Arabic language, a semantic evolution has occurred. The importance and necessity of this research is due to the fact that this word has an Iranian or MoreAccording to some thinkers, sarad is one of the words entered into the Arabic language. For this word, upon entering the Arabic language, a semantic evolution has occurred. The importance and necessity of this research is due to the fact that this word has an Iranian origin and has changed its meaning in the Arabic language, and understanding it is effective in understanding the divine word and its miracles. With the historical and analytical method, this research analyzes the historical and genealogical origin of the word sarad, the course of its semantic evolution in the Arabic language, and the historical application of the derivatives of the word sarad in the context of the verses of the Qurʾan. The results of this research show that the word sarad is from the Persian root of "armor" and using the historical use of the word armor in ancient Iran and its widespread use in Iranian cavalry from the first dynasties and also the powerful evidence of the Shāhnameh in describing the Iranian armorers, it can be said that sarad is a Persian word with a military origin. In the Arabic language, this word has evolved into the concepts of "piercing and sewing leather", "weaving armor" and "consecutiveness of something". The word sarad is used in the Holy Qurʾan as a single use and in the sense of "rings of armor". Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
179 - Comparing the Extraneous Cognitive Load of Designing an Instruction with Merrill's Model between Instruction by Multimedia and Traditional Methods
Mohammad Zare Esmail Zarei Zavaraki Mohammad Hasan Amirteimoury Rahele SarikhaniThis study intends to examine the extraneous cognitive load within instruction that it had been designed building upon Merrill's model and conducted by multimedia and traditional methods in a biology course. This study was a practical research and also the quasi-experim MoreThis study intends to examine the extraneous cognitive load within instruction that it had been designed building upon Merrill's model and conducted by multimedia and traditional methods in a biology course. This study was a practical research and also the quasi-experimental research methodology had been utilized. The research statistical population was the whole of the senior high school students in Malayer city. Research sampling was selected via convenience sampling and then they categorized into control and experimental groups. The experimental group instructed through independent variable (instructional multimedia according to Merrill's instructional design model) and the designed biology content based on Merrill's instructional design model instructed to the control group. Likewise, Brunken, Plass and Leutner questionnaire of extraneous cognitive load assessment with the reliability of 0.83 was applied to gathering data. The result showed that extraneous cognitive load in the instruction of biology course, which was designed according to Merrill's model, in traditional method is lower than multimedia method. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
180 - The impact of educational multimedia design based on the principles of cognitive load on learning, remember and educational progress motivation in math lesson
fateme hosizadeh Hassan Rastegarpour Nasrin Mohammadhasni sasan salimiThe present study aims to investigate the effecs of multimedia design education based on the principles of cognitive theory on learning, remembering and educational progress motivation of grade-five female students at math. the study was pseudo-educational and pretests MoreThe present study aims to investigate the effecs of multimedia design education based on the principles of cognitive theory on learning, remembering and educational progress motivation of grade-five female students at math. the study was pseudo-educational and pretests and posttests administered to the control group. The population of the study includes allfemale students at grade five across the city of Ahvaz. The sampling of the study was done according to multi-level cluster sampling from Ahvaz, area4. Among the schools of this region, Bahar School with 325 students was chosen. Fromthe five grades in school only grade five students were taken into account.At this grade two classes named A and B, each with 30 students were available. Due to lack of cooperation of the teacher in classB, onlythe classA was considered.Next, thestudents were devided into two groups:control and experimental group(15 students each).Data collection instruments include two learning and remembering tests devised by the author and Keller's educational progress questionnaire (1993).In order to analyze the data covariance analysis tests were used. The results of the study showed that educational multimedia design based on principles of cognitive theory has an effect on learning,remembering and educational progress motivation of female students at grade five. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
181 - تحلیل آسیبپذیری شهرهای کشور از شاخصهای حدی بارشی در دوره (2010-1981)
حمیده دالایی منوچهر فرج زاده امیر گندم کار محمد حسن نامی -
Open Access Article
182 - FLOOD FORCASTING USING HEC-HMS (CASE STUDY: MAROON CATCHMENT-Eidenak Hydro clammology station )
Mohammad AMIN Gandomi Babak sheheni darabiThe Maroon River, one of the Jarahi River head waters, is located in Maroon Catchment and the upstream of Behbahan City. Maroon Dam with maximum volume of 1193 MCM was built on this river by Khuzestan Water & Power Authority [1]. The dam prevents from seasonal high MoreThe Maroon River, one of the Jarahi River head waters, is located in Maroon Catchment and the upstream of Behbahan City. Maroon Dam with maximum volume of 1193 MCM was built on this river by Khuzestan Water & Power Authority [1]. The dam prevents from seasonal high flood damages and saves large amounts of water for agriculture consumptions. The river has flash floods with high peaks, so it seems that flood control and management are cases of high importance in this catchment and it's necessary to have information about flood volume for flood management, downstream programming and consumption estimation in a water year. Therefore, runoff data were calibrated based on the real precipitation data, using HEC-HMS Rainfall-Runoff Model and Schneider Method. Considering 12 observed floods in the past years, observed and calculated runoff values were compared and the best parameters were calculated for initial & final soil infiltration and time of concentration &Good results from this review were obtained Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
183 - A Genealogical Look at the Concept of Nature and the Manifestation of its Presence in the Architecture of Iranian Houses
Qader Bayzidi kianoush farajiIntroduction Living spaces and in their context “houses”, have been one of the lasting needs created by human beings in every society. Despite of many years passing from their construction and living in them, they are still evidently, memorable and decent in MoreIntroduction Living spaces and in their context “houses”, have been one of the lasting needs created by human beings in every society. Despite of many years passing from their construction and living in them, they are still evidently, memorable and decent in all their dimensions. These spaces are the most noble, beautiful and tangible property of architecture as well as serve comfort the users, represent identity and fulfill owners dream, hopes in the best possible ways. The nature and concepts derived from it are important components and as a meaningful factor. The main purpose is to identify influential factors in Foucault’s genealogy and their role in the creation of divers’ concepts of nature and how they are present in the architecture of Iranian houses. Methodology The research method is Foucault’s genealogy and semiotic method were used for data analysis. Geographical area of research In this research, significant houses and settlements in the architecture of different periods of Iranian history - from antiquity to the second Pahlavi period - have been studied. Results and discussion The result of the study shows that the meanings of nature are not limited to the primary, secondary and abstract appearance of nature in the form and structure of houses; Rather, these concepts have created an identity and a mentality linked to power in the framework of specific discourses and in accordance with the conditions of society in each historical period. Conclusion The physical, functional and content presence of nature, in addition to recalling the past through explicit and implicit meanings, under the influence of developments in each historical period has led to the production of new knowledge and meanings in the field of industry, art and architecture. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
184 - -
marzieh tatina mahmood roshani atoosa bigdeli -
Open Access Article
185 - -
ghasem azizi seyed omid nabavi esmaeil abasi -
Open Access Article
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hossein asakareh reza khoshraftar fatemeh sotoodeh -
Open Access Article
187 - Drought in Gorgan Synoptic Station. Estimation and Analysing
Hossein Mohammadi Mohsen Soltani Ali HanafiDrought is the most important kinds of natural hazards and it is a secret and slow phenomena which results from climate processes. The intensity and frequency of it depends on geographical position. it occurs due to decrease of raining rate once at several years. In ord MoreDrought is the most important kinds of natural hazards and it is a secret and slow phenomena which results from climate processes. The intensity and frequency of it depends on geographical position. it occurs due to decrease of raining rate once at several years. In order to study of Gorgan station droughts we used from Meteorological organization data for a period (1976-2005).After primary investigation, drought was analysed by using of standard distribution, Percentage Normal and Deciles, so that it was extracted the weak and intermediate droughts and its trend on station. Results showed that 85-95 decades were the driest decade in statistical duration and according to used indexes, the year of 1990 had the severest drought value. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
188 - The genealogy of political process of reform in relation with Religious Intellectual intellectual readings after the Islamic revolution in Iran.
lafteh mansoori Ahmad Ali Hesabi nabiollah iderHolding a novel and different approach, this study aims to investigate the nature of both social identity construction and social system development as two subjective and challenging issues in a dialectic process and based on an integrative sociological and socio-psycho MoreHolding a novel and different approach, this study aims to investigate the nature of both social identity construction and social system development as two subjective and challenging issues in a dialectic process and based on an integrative sociological and socio-psychological approach in the light of three theoretical perspectives at macro, micro and medium scales (vis-a- vis mainly the suggested subjective orientations).. The main question addressed is whether individuals’ sense of social identity construction subject to Facilitating Factors of youths' Social Identity Construction in Social System. To this end, facilitating factors of social system-based construction among youths was addressed with a sample of 445 probability stratified sampling selected students from Tehran University. Attending this field study, they attempted a researcher-made tablet-rendered valid and reliable questionnaire. Content and construct validity measures of the instrument were measured through expert judgment and factor analysis, respectively and its reliability was estimated through Cronbach alpha correlational analysis. One sample parametric t-test and Binomial test-based analyses of the data supported the main hypothesis predicting that social system through precipitating factors has no effective role (T=21/45) on identity construction of youth. This study mainly suggests a scientific, different and comprehensive applied model for social identity construction on the basis of facilitating factors of social system. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
189 - Study of influence of Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index on Siberian High Pressure and their probable impacts on precipitation in southern coastal region of Caspian Sea
T. Azizian A. AskariIn this research, to investigate the relationship between AO (Arctic Oscillation) index and Siberian high pressure and the impact of it on the amount of rainfall in seven synoptic stations that have the ability to cover the southern coasts of Caspian Sea, we used 30- ye MoreIn this research, to investigate the relationship between AO (Arctic Oscillation) index and Siberian high pressure and the impact of it on the amount of rainfall in seven synoptic stations that have the ability to cover the southern coasts of Caspian Sea, we used 30- year period (1976 to 2005) precipitation data of those stations using correlation and regression analyses. We also used mean sea level pressure maps to analyze synoptically some special cases of extreme rainfalls. Our obtained results showed significant correlation at 95% level between extreme rainfalls and AO indices and also between rainfall and extreme AO indices in some stations of this region at monthly, seasonal and annual scales. In this context, using multiple regression analysis, rainfall was considered as the dependent variable and features of Siberian high pressure considered as independent variables. Results of this analysis showed that there is a strong relationship between precipitation and features of Siberian high pressure for eastern stations of the region under study in January and February. This relationship was quite evident for western stations in October. In most cases, coefficient of correlation of rainfall with central pressure of Siberian high was negative and, with latitude it was positive. Multiple regression analysis between AO indices and features of Siberian high pressure showed negative relationship between central pressures in Siberian high with AO indices and positive relationship between longitude of Siberian high pressure centers and AO indices in most months of autumn and winter. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
190 - The analysis of seasonality and seasonal precipitation anomaly changes in Iran during 1977-2006
S. ZarrinkamarMajd P. S. Katiraie-BoroujerdyRainfall change as a result of climate change is one of the important issues of recent decades. Climate change can be represented as changes in the inter-annual precipitation distribution and seasonality. Furthermore, the seasonality changes and the transposition of the MoreRainfall change as a result of climate change is one of the important issues of recent decades. Climate change can be represented as changes in the inter-annual precipitation distribution and seasonality. Furthermore, the seasonality changes and the transposition of the seasonal precipitation are very important for agricultural and hydrological domains decision makings. In this paper, in order to quantitatively investigat the inter-annual distribution of precipitation, at first the seasonality index and the normalized seasonal precipitation anomaly are calculated. For this purpose the monthly rainfall of 33 synoptic stations are used over Iran. The spatial distribution of the seasonality index average and also the year occurrence of maximum and minimum index for each station are identified. Then the significant trends of seasonality indices and also the normalized seasonal precipitation anomaly are examined using Mann-Kendall test for the period 1977-2006.The results show the minimum seasonality index for Gorgan station in the south east of the Caspian Sea, and the maximum seasonality index for Bandarabas station in the south of the country (the coast of the Persian Gulf). The precipitation tends to be concentrated in few months of the year in most stations for the study period (only three stations show significant trends). The maximum seasonality index is observed after 1990 in most stations. However, the trends of seasonal rainfall anomalies for all four seasons in the northwest parts of Iran are negative, but in the central and western regions changes in anomaly trends are positive. This means that seasonal rainfall year to year variations are reduced in the northwest of the country. Highest number of significant trends is observed in winter precipitation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
191 - Application of Caspian Sea SST and SLP data for studying drought in Mazandaran Province
M. Abediny H. Askary Shirazi A. RanjbarIn this research, application of seasurface temperature, sea surface pressureandprecipitationin theprovince ofMazandaranwasstudied. Meanmonthlyseasurfacetemperaturedatain30-yearperiodwas obtainedfrom NOAA. Thirty-yearaveragemonthlyprecipitationdata was taken frommeteoro MoreIn this research, application of seasurface temperature, sea surface pressureandprecipitationin theprovince ofMazandaranwasstudied. Meanmonthlyseasurfacetemperaturedatain30-yearperiodwas obtainedfrom NOAA. Thirty-yearaveragemonthlyprecipitationdata was taken frommeteorologicaloffice of Mazandaran provinceforBabolsar, Qharakhyl,Noshahrand Ramsar stations. The correlation betweenseasurfacetemperaturesand rainfallindifferent months inthe provincewas calculated. Ineachmonth,the thirddegreeregressionlinewasusedforstatisticalestimation. In thepresent study it wasshownthat there is negative correlation,with 95 percent confidence interval,betweensea surface temperatureof Caspian Seaagainstprecipitation and standardizedprecipitationindex inthe inMazandaran Province. It can be deducedthat decreasing sea surface temperature at different months of the year decreases precipitationand rising seasurfacetemperature increases rainfall. Sea surface pressure study also showed that increase in SSP increases rainfall and decrease in SSP increases drought in Mazandaran province. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
192 - Synoptic analysis of Caspian torrential rains, Case Study: Winter floods in 2012 Noushahr
A. Mohammadi M. Salighe E. Hamidy A. HesamyTorrential rains in the southern Caspian Sea, has been of interest for researchers and different solutions have been offered. The analysis shows that thesuggested mechanisms are all derived from a single model. These theories are different only in appearance. This singl MoreTorrential rains in the southern Caspian Sea, has been of interest for researchers and different solutions have been offered. The analysis shows that thesuggested mechanisms are all derived from a single model. These theories are different only in appearance. This single model is the basic mechanism of the Caspian Sea rainfall in autumn and winter. Torrential precipitation more occurs in autumn and less in winter. In this paper, winter floods in Noushahr city in 2012 have been studied. By posing different theories governing the precipitation of the Caspian Sea, next to one another, the pattern was introduced for the torrential rains. Results indicated that the floods were caused by the passage of low pressure systems from the North Caspian Sea. Low pressure cold front has passed over Noushahr on 11 November 2012. The cold front on 12 November 2012, located near the center of Iran, at 35 latitude. With the influx of cold air behind the cold front caused floods in Noushahr city. Cold advection over the sea caused too much moisture absorption by the air. The results also showed that the ridge of high pressure that immigrated from the north Mediterranean had important role in the passage of the cold front is Noushahr city. The ridge is moving cold front to lower latitude finally passes through the north of Iran. The cause of ridge formation was cold air advection on the Caspian Sea. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
193 - Study of effect of NAO Index on temperature and precipitation of southern coastal region of Caspian Sea in 1977-2009 periods
S. Tabarestani A. AsgariThe North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is one of the effective indices in changing atmospheric situation of northern hemisphere .Southern coastal region of Caspian Sea is affected by different atmospheric systems and teleconnections such as NAO because of its special geog MoreThe North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is one of the effective indices in changing atmospheric situation of northern hemisphere .Southern coastal region of Caspian Sea is affected by different atmospheric systems and teleconnections such as NAO because of its special geographical situation. In this research, precipitation and temperature data of southern coastal region of Caspian Sea are examined for 8 synoptic stations in 1977-2009 period. NAO index data are also received from cpc.noaa.gov website. Precipitation and temperature data were examined with their corresponding NAO indices data by correlation test in monthly and yearly time scales. Furthermore, we found that in this region, when NAO index increases, precipitation will increase and temperature will decrease and vice versa. During recent years, NAO index shows negative trend, so we expect decrease of precipitation and increase of temperature in the region. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
194 - Evaluation of precipitation forecasts of WRF model for daily heavy rain in Qazvin Province during 2002-2011
F. Arkian N. Mashatan P. S. Katiraie Borojerdi E. Mirzaei Haji BaghloIn this study, the precipitation forecasts by WRF model for daily pervasive heavy rains in Qazvin province was evaluated. For this purpose, 30 cases of the heavy and pervasive rains in Qazvin province during (2002-2011) with two different configurations (KFMYJ, GDMYJ) s MoreIn this study, the precipitation forecasts by WRF model for daily pervasive heavy rains in Qazvin province was evaluated. For this purpose, 30 cases of the heavy and pervasive rains in Qazvin province during (2002-2011) with two different configurations (KFMYJ, GDMYJ) schemes by the WRF model at intervals of 24, 48 and 72 hours, have been simulated. Because of various heights and different climates of Qazvin and considering average rainfall, Qazvin was divided into five precipitation regions containing plain, plain margins, submontane, and mountains of Northeast and Southwest. Then with the two methods, point and areal, simulated rainfall and the corresponding observed values were evaluated. According to evaluated results, for GDMYJ configuration, root mean square error and bias multiple, with respective values of about 8.7 and 1.7 for 24-hour rainfall simulation are better than 48 and 72 hours. Also correlation coefficient between observations and model simulations of precipitation in the submontane region in comparison with other regions has slightly higher accuracy of approximately 0.5. In general, the fraction of systematic error to total error is very low and it is more due to random errors. Considering the rainfall threshold ≥10 mm and the 2×2 contingency tables for the occurrence or absence of precipitation, skill scores were calculated for the model in Qazvin region. The results showed that the model skill in predicting precipitation in 24, 48 and 72 hours on the threshold has acceptable accuracy and on average about 71% of cases were correctly predicted. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
195 - مقایسهی برآورد حداکثر بارش محتمل به دو روش آماری در حوضهی آبریز رودخانهی کرج
افسانه عباسی زین العابدین جعفرپور -
Open Access Article
196 - بررسی و تحلیل بارش همرفتی درشمالغرب ایران
قاسم عزیزی فاطمه ربانی -
Open Access Article
197 - Mohammed Arkoun and using post structuralism in critic of Islamic intellect
Hameh Aliakbarzadeh Mostafa SoltaniMohammed Arkoun is one of foremost scholars in the Muslim World. His efforts to liberate Islamic history from dogmatic constructs have led him to a radical interpretation of traditional history. He is looking for a new approach to Islamic thought .Critique of Islamic Re MoreMohammed Arkoun is one of foremost scholars in the Muslim World. His efforts to liberate Islamic history from dogmatic constructs have led him to a radical interpretation of traditional history. He is looking for a new approach to Islamic thought .Critique of Islamic Reason is Arkoun project He criticizes the Salafiism (fundamentalism), Orientalist and philological approaches. He has applied post-structuralist method and has been influenced by the modern French philosophers such as Jacques Derrida and Michel Foucault. Arkoun has opposed dogmatism and Mythical – orthodoxy attitude in Islam by using archaeology and deconstruction. At this paper, we have explained and analyzed that how Arkoun has applied post structuralism in critique of Islamic intellect. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
198 - The Role of People in Iran's Islamic Revolution: An analysis based on Foucault's Perspective
Mahin Niroomand Alankesh Garineh Keshishyan Siraki Jahangir KaramiNowadays, it is no longer possible to ignore the agency of people in creating effective events in societies. In other words, in the researches and analyzes of researchers and thinkers, the role of the people in changing the structures of their society and sometimes the MoreNowadays, it is no longer possible to ignore the agency of people in creating effective events in societies. In other words, in the researches and analyzes of researchers and thinkers, the role of the people in changing the structures of their society and sometimes the direction or change in the political behavior of the rulers is prominently observed, and the analysts and thinkers by addressing People's agency, contemporary movements and uprisings are investigated. Based on this, the purpose of this article is to investigate the position of the people in the Iranian revolution with Michel Foucault's genealogical perspective and find an answer to these questions: what role did the people play in the Islamic revolution of Iran and how can it be done? From the perspective of Foucaultian genealogy, did he analyze the position of the people in the Iranian revolution? The claim of the authors is that based on a genealogical perspective, the Iranian revolution of 1357 can only be understood based on the agency of the people.To investigate this claim, Foucault's genealogical method was used and the topics were presented in the form of theoretical sections, the process of the revolution, general analysis of the revolution and genealogical analysis of the revolution, and conclusions were drawn from the topics. The findings of the article showed that without an understanding of the process of people's participation in the Iranian revolution, it is impossible to get a clear understanding of this great phenomenon of the 20th century. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
199 - Comparison Effects of Cooperative Learning and Brain Stroming Learning on Students’ Social Adjustment
amir yekanizad akbar SoleimannezhadAbstractThe present study aimed comparison effects of cooperative learning and brain stroming learning on social adjustment in students of the fifth elementary school in Khoy city. The research method was quasi-experimental with pre-test and post-test design with two ex MoreAbstractThe present study aimed comparison effects of cooperative learning and brain stroming learning on social adjustment in students of the fifth elementary school in Khoy city. The research method was quasi-experimental with pre-test and post-test design with two experimental groups. The statistical population consisted of all male students of the fifth elementary school in Khoy city in the academic year 2019-2020. The sample consisted of 60 people who were selected by multistage random cluster sampling and assigned in cooperative learning and brain storming learning groups (30 in each group). In order to collect data in this study, questionnaires adaptive bdhavior inventory for children (Lambert & et al, 1984) were used. Data analysis was performed using multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). The results of this study showed in social adjustment significant difference between Students with the cooperative learning method and brain storming learning method. In other words, the effect of cooperative learning on increasing social adjustment is more than the brain storming learning method (P <0.005). In sum, the results of this study confirm the usefulness and impact of cooperative learning on increasing the social adjustment of students. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
200 - Precipitation-runoff Simulation with Neural Network(Case study: Nasa Bam Plain)
mehdi shahrokhi sardoo mojtaba jafari kermanipourShort-term runoff forecasting is of particular importance due to its direct relationship with how managers interact with life risks caused by floods. In this research, by using artificial neural networks, simulation of rainfall-runoff process has been done on a daily ba MoreShort-term runoff forecasting is of particular importance due to its direct relationship with how managers interact with life risks caused by floods. In this research, by using artificial neural networks, simulation of rainfall-runoff process has been done on a daily basis in the Nasa Bam watershed. In order to predict the future process of using the water resources of the mentioned plain, different combinations of rainfall and temperature data and discharge and discharge difference of two consecutive days were used. The number of hidden layer neurons in the neural network varied between 2 and 10 neurons. The statistical criteria of root mean square error RMSE, mean absolute value of error MAE and correlation coefficient R were used to evaluate and compare the performance of neural networks in runoff forecasting. The results showed that by having 2 inputs and feedforward neural network or 1 input and newrbe network, the best performance was achieved and the rainfall-runoff process was predicted with higher accuracy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
201 - Necessities and non necessity Foucault reading of power
Afshin Eshkevar kiaei Ali Ashraf Nazari ahmad saee Kamal pooladiUnderstanding the nature of "power" from ancient political philosophy to modern philosophy has been considered in various ways, but here we analyze the concept of power from Foucault's methodological point of view, which had many critiques of different views of power. I MoreUnderstanding the nature of "power" from ancient political philosophy to modern philosophy has been considered in various ways, but here we analyze the concept of power from Foucault's methodological point of view, which had many critiques of different views of power. In this research, we first seek to understand the concept of power from Foucault's point of view and then examine the difference between his perception and that of others. Accordingly, the question that this article seeks to answer is what exactly does Foucault mean by power and what does not, and what is the meaning of power in Foucault's method apparatus? in this study, to answer this question, since the discussion of power in Foucault's genealogical method is an important and central concept, and Foucault himself always tried to express his distinction from the concept of power and others' understanding of power; Here we have also tried to examine this concept in Foucault's methodology in two parts called what is not power and what is power With a qualitative research approach and a descriptive method and through documentary and library study. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
202 - Foucault's reading of the functions of language: A new project to understand the functions of the Persian language from the beginning of the Abbasid rule to the fifth century
Afshin Eshkevar kiaeiThe invasion of Muslim Arabs is one of the most influential identity events in the history of Iran, especially in the discussion of language; But there is a difference of opinion about how and how much, and to what extent this change is on Iranians, which has led to var MoreThe invasion of Muslim Arabs is one of the most influential identity events in the history of Iran, especially in the discussion of language; But there is a difference of opinion about how and how much, and to what extent this change is on Iranians, which has led to various research topics and various narratives of this historical period. In this study, while examining the essentialist and constructivist narratives about the effects of language on historical developments, we examine the various functions of language from the beginning of the Abbasid rule to the beginning of the fifth century with the help of Michel Foucault's method of historical genealogy.The finding of this study of language in this period is that, given the acceptance of the argument about language that, while language plays an important role in shaping the collective life of ethnic groups and nationalist beliefs, it is nevertheless inappropriate to consider language as the collective spirit of a nation. Although language is the builder of mentality, it should by no means be considered an unwritten whiteboard. Rather, language has different functions throughout history and it must be examined in its time frame. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
203 - ٍEvaluation of drought return period using standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Fars province, Iran
Nader Pirmoradian Seyyed Amir Shamsnia Fardin Boustani Mohammad Ali ShahrokhniaDrought is one of the natural disasters and it is very much frequent in dry and semidry areas of Iran. Lack of rainfall has different effects on underground waters, soil moisture and river currents. Examining and analyzing of drought severity duration curves and evaluat MoreDrought is one of the natural disasters and it is very much frequent in dry and semidry areas of Iran. Lack of rainfall has different effects on underground waters, soil moisture and river currents. Examining and analyzing of drought severity duration curves and evaluation curves are essential to water resources and agricultural management planning. So, the drought indices should be used. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) is one of the most important indices that aims to assign numeric values to the most important climate factor (rainfall). It is used to determine precipitation deficit in different time scales. Time scales show the drought effects on water resource abilities. In present study, the drought severities were determined in a 30 year statistical period for 20 stations across Fars province of Iran in three 6, 12 and 24 months scales. Then based on drought severities in different months, the change process curves of SPI index were provided at different scales. Considering the short-time, mid-time and long-time scales, and the drought was examined from different view points and its severest events and their alternation periods were compared and analyzed. The results showed that Fars province has been encountered with droughts for many years and it has deteriorated in recent years. Other results showed that the short-time droughts had very much fluctuation and were much sensitive to the moisture changes. But in long-term time scale, the sever droughts had long standing and reflected the drought in better fashion. Thus, since drought severity and its frequency are all directly or indirectly time scale depended functions, they may be regarded as the initial warning for drought and help to evaluate it. Result was also revealed the changes process from low severity to high one from northwest to the southeast of the province. The alternation period of drought occurrence with a mild severity varied 3-10 years in average at the studied stations. These quantities for moderate and severe droughts were obtained 5-15 and 10-15 years, respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
204 - Effect of Hungarian vetch residues on initial establishment and yield of wheat cultivars in field condition
Bahman Abdolrahmani Gholamreza ValizadehTo investigate the effect of different amounts of Hungarian vetch residues on growth and yield of wheat cultivars in cold regions, an experiment was conducted in a strip plot design based on randomized complete block design with three replications during the growing yea MoreTo investigate the effect of different amounts of Hungarian vetch residues on growth and yield of wheat cultivars in cold regions, an experiment was conducted in a strip plot design based on randomized complete block design with three replications during the growing years of 2014-2017 at Dryland Research Institute of Iran, Maragheh Station. The amounts of vetch residues in three levels of 0, 1.5 and 3 ton/ha as horizontal factor and wheat cultivars including Homa, Azar2 and Baran as vertical factor were evaluated. The experiment was carried out on forage – wheat rotation farm, and the plant residues of the vetch were added to the experimental plots spread uniformly on the surface of the soil. Plant residues of 1.5 tons per hectare had a positive effect on early establishment of seedlings in the field, yield and yield components of wheat. Homa cultivar had the highest positive reaction to the addition of green vetch residues in the amount of 1.5 tons per hectare in terms of thousand kernel weight, grain yield, biomass yield, harvest index, productivity rate and recipitation efficiency index. Therefore, the maintenance of vetch residues of 1.5 tons per hectare can improve the yield of wheat. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
205 - Data-based mechanistic modeling of rainfall-runoff process, case study: upper Karoun subbasin data analysis
Navid Jalalkamali Hossein Sedghi A major part of hydrological researches focused on complex and non-linear rainfall-runoff process. Mathematical models were presented to describe this process including a wide range from simple black-box representation to complex physically-based mode More A major part of hydrological researches focused on complex and non-linear rainfall-runoff process. Mathematical models were presented to describe this process including a wide range from simple black-box representation to complex physically-based models. Considering inherent uncertainty associated with the process as a result of uncertain input variables and uncertain calibrated parameters, stochastic modeling seemed preferable to deterministic approaches. In this study, data-based mechanistic modeling (DBM) was selected to identify non-linearities of the process. The method is categorized as a stochastic approach relying upon recursive parameter estimation using Kalman filtering algorithm in state space system of equations. In addition, it is capable to reflect a physical interpretation of rainfall-runoff conversion to describe the behavior of the system. The later capability differs it from other black-box modeling approaches. In this research, a parallel structure of flow routes was identified in upper-Karoun subbasin of the great Karoun catchment. Sensitivity analysis was also carried out based on Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method and the reliability of the presented model were quantified. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
206 - The effect of primitive seed phosphorous content on growth and yield of barley varieties in dryland condition
Bahman Abdolrahmani Gholamreza ValizadehTo evaluate the effects of primitive seed phosphorus content through different phosphorus use on parent plants on growth traits and grain yield of three barley cultivars; a research was conducted as factorial experiment based on randomized complete block design wi MoreTo evaluate the effects of primitive seed phosphorus content through different phosphorus use on parent plants on growth traits and grain yield of three barley cultivars; a research was conducted as factorial experiment based on randomized complete block design with three replications during 2012- 2013 at Dryland Agricultural Research Institute (DARI), Maragheh station, Iran. Factors were cultivars including Sahand, Abidar and Dayton and primitive seed phosphorous contents that applied in previous year on parent plants at 0, 15, 30 and 45 kg.ha-1 rates. Seed phosphorus percentage was measured in parent plants in different seasons and results showed significant difference in seed phosphorus content through different phosphorus fertilizers application in parent plants and using of 30 and 45 kg.ha-1 of phosphorus fertilizer was more effective than other treatments. Sahand × 30 kg.ha-1 combination was a superior treatment in seed phosphorus content, grain yield, productivity degree, harvest index and green cover percentage but biological yield and can be recommended in fall cultivation of rainfed barley in this and other climatically similar regions. Manuscript profile
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