Analyzing Long-Term Changes Trend of Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) as an Indicator of Climate Change in the Persian Gulf and Oman sea Basin
Subject Areas : Drought in meteorology and agriculturePeyman Mahmoudi 1 , Ebrahim Fattahi 2 , Mohsen Heydari 3 , Allahbakhsh Rigi 4 , Alireza Ghaemi 5 , Jabbar Rezaei 6
1 - Associate Professor, Department of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran
2 - Associate Professor, Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center, Tehran, Iran.
3 - M. Sc. of Agricultural Engineering, Sistan and Baluchestan Province Meteorological Administration, Zahedan, Iran.
4 - . Sc. of Mathematics, Sistan and Baluchestan Province Meteorological Administration, Zahedan, Iran
5 - PhD of Civil Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
6 - PhD student of Climatology, Geography Department, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.
Keywords: Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI), Sen's slope estimator, climate change, precipitation, trend ,
Abstract :
Background and Aim: The Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman basin, due to its specific geographic-climatic position and location in the arid and semi-arid regions of the globe, is highly vulnerable to climatic anomalies, such that one of its most important climatic elements, precipitation, exhibits severe variability. This leads to prolonged droughts in some areas and causes floods and river overflows in other locations. Therefore, the study and prediction of climatic changes in this basin is crucial for reducing potential hazards and damages at various social, economic, and environmental levels.
Method: In this research, daily precipitation data from 47 meteorological stations over 30 years (1993-2022) were obtained from the Iranian Meteorological Organization. After acquiring the data and creating a database, the daily Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) was calculated for all studied stations. The PCI value is a number between zero and one. The closer the PCI is to one, the higher the concentration of precipitation within a limited number of days, increasing the likelihood of floods and heavy rainfall events in those areas. Ultimately, the long-term trends of the PCI were analyzed using Sen's slope estimator.
Results: The long-term average of the daily PCI values for the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman basin indicates a high level of this index in the studied basin. The highest values of this index are observed along the southern to southeastern coastal strip from Bushehr to Chabahar, while the lowest values are found in the western and southwestern parts of the basin from Abadan to Piranshahr. The trend analysis results showed that, except for a few stations) Brujen, Jusk, Masjed Soleiman) with negative trends, the entire basin has been dominated by increasing trends. The increasing trend slope indicates that precipitation is concentrated within fewer rainy days, which could lead to an increase in heavy rainfall and flood events within this basin.
Conclusion: The PCI trend analysis results showed that most of the studied basin area has experienced increasing trends, meaning that precipitation has become concentrated within fewer rainy days. This increasing trend, which could be due to an increase in droughts in this basin, may exacerbate the occurrence of flood-like rainfall events within the basin. Therefore, the changes of this index in the sub-basins of Bandar Abbas-Sadij, South Baluchistan, Karun and Western Marzi have been statistically significant. This trend highlights the need for serious attention to flood, drought, and other hydroclimatological hazard management in this basin.
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