تحليل روند تغييرات بلندمدت شاخص تراکم بارش (PCI) روزانه به عنوان شاخصي از تغيير اقليم در حوضه آبريز خليج فارس و درياي عمان
محورهای موضوعی : خشکسالی در هواشناسی و کشاورزیپیمان محمودی 1 , ابراهیم فتاحی 2 , محسن حیدری 3 , اله بخش ریگی 4 , علیرضا قائمی 5 , جبار رضایی 6
1 - دانشيار، گروه جغرافياي طبيعي، دانشگاه سيستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ايران.
2 - دانشيار، پژوهشگاه هواشناسي و علوم جو، تهران، ايران
3 - دانش آموخته کارشناسي ارشد مهندسي کشاورزي، اداره کل هواشناسي استان سيستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ايران.
4 - دانش آموخته کارشناسي ارشد رياضي، اداره کل هواشناسي استان سيستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ايران.
5 - دانش آموخته دکتراي مهندسي عمران-مديريت منابع آب، گروه مهندسي عمران، دانشگاه سيستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ايران.
6 - دانشجوي دکتراي اقليم شناسي، گروه جغرافيا، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ايران.
کلید واژه: شاخص تراکم بارش (PCI), تخمينگر شيب سن, تغيير اقليم, بارش, روند,
چکیده مقاله :
زمينه و هدف: حوضه آبريز خليج فارس و درياي عمان به دليل موقعيت خاص جغرافيايي- اقليمي و قرارگرفتن در پهنه خشک و نيمه خشک کره زمين، در مواجه با ناهنجاريهاي اقليمي به شدت آسيب‌پذير است به طوري که يکي از مهمترين عناصر اقليمي آن يعني بارش، تغيير پذيري شديدي از خود نشان مي‌دهد. به طوريکه در جايي سبب بروز خشکسالي‌هاي ممتد و در مکان ديگر مسبب سيل و طغيان رودخانه‌ها مي‌شود. لذا لزوم بررسي و پيش بيني تغييرات اقليمي در اين حوضه آبريز، جهت کاهش خطرات و زيان‌هاي احتمالي در سطوح مختلف اجتماعي، اقتصادي و زيست محيطي از اهميت خاصي برخوردار است.
روش پژوهش: در اين پژوهش از دادههاي بارش روزانه 47 ايستگاه هواشناسي براي يک بازه زماني 30 ساله (2022-1993) که از سازمان هواشناسي ايران دريافت شد، استفاده گرديد. بعد از اخذ داده‌ها و تشکيل بانک اطلاعاتي آنها، شاخص تراکم بارش (PCI) روزانه براي تمامي ايستگاه‌هاي مورد مطالعه محاسبه شد. مقدار شاخص تراکم بارش (PCI) روزانه عددي در بازه صفر و يک است. هر چقدر مقدار شاخص تراکم بارش (PCI) به عدد يک نزديک‌تر باشد نشان دهنده تمرکز مقدار زياد بارندگي در تعداد روزهاي محدود است که احتمال وقوع سيل و بارندگي‌هاي شديد در اين مناطق بيشتر مي‌شود. در نهايت با استفاده از تخمينگر شيب سن روند تغييرات بلندمدت آنها مورد تحليل قرار گرفتند.
يافته‌ها: ميانگين بلندمدت مقادير شاخص تراکم بارش (PCI) روزانه براي حوضه آبريز خليج فارس و درياي عمان نشان از بالا بودن اين شاخص در حوضه آبريز مورد مطالعه دارد. بالاترين مقادير اين شاخص متعلق به نوار ساحلي جنوب تا جنوب شرق از بوشهر تا چابهار و پايين‌ترين آن نيز در غرب و جنوب غرب حوضه آبريز از آبادان تا پيرانشهر مشاهده مي‌شود. نتايج تحليل روند اين شاخص نشان داد که کل حوضه آبريز به استثناي چند ايستگاه محدود (بروجن، جاسک و مسجد سليمان) که روند آنها منفي مي‌باشد بقيه ايستگاه‌هاي واقع در حوضه آبريز تحت سيطره روندهاي افزايشي بوده‌اند. لذا شيب روند تغييرات افزايشي حاکي از تمرکز بارش‌ها در تعداد روزهاي بارشي کمتر است است که اين مي‌تواند باعث افزايش روزهاي همراه با بارش‌هاي سنگين و سيل آسا در اين حوضه آبريز باشد.
نتايج: نتايج تحليل روند اين شاخص نشان داد که بيشتر مساحت حوضه آبريز مورد مطالعه داراي روند افزايشي بوده‌اند يعني بارش‌ها در تعداد روزهاي بارشي کمتري تمرکز پيدا کرده‌اند. اين روند افزايشي که مي‌تواند ناشي از افزايش خشکسالي‌ها در اين حوضه آبريز باشد مي‌تواند وقوع بارش‌هاي سيل‌آسا را در داخل اين حوضه آبريز تشديد کند. لذا تغييرات اين شاخص در زير حوضه‌هاي بندرعباس-سديج، بلوچستان جنوبي، کارون
Background and Aim: The Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman basin, due to its specific geographic-climatic position and location in the arid and semi-arid regions of the globe, is highly vulnerable to climatic anomalies, such that one of its most important climatic elements, precipitation, exhibits severe variability. This leads to prolonged droughts in some areas and causes floods and river overflows in other locations. Therefore, the study and prediction of climatic changes in this basin is crucial for reducing potential hazards and damages at various social, economic, and environmental levels.
Method: In this research, daily precipitation data from 47 meteorological stations over 30 years (1993-2022) were obtained from the Iranian Meteorological Organization. After acquiring the data and creating a database, the daily Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) was calculated for all studied stations. The PCI value is a number between zero and one. The closer the PCI is to one, the higher the concentration of precipitation within a limited number of days, increasing the likelihood of floods and heavy rainfall events in those areas. Ultimately, the long-term trends of the PCI were analyzed using Sen's slope estimator.
Results: The long-term average of the daily PCI values for the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman basin indicates a high level of this index in the studied basin. The highest values of this index are observed along the southern to southeastern coastal strip from Bushehr to Chabahar, while the lowest values are found in the western and southwestern parts of the basin from Abadan to Piranshahr. The trend analysis results showed that, except for a few stations) Brujen, Jusk, Masjed Soleiman) with negative trends, the entire basin has been dominated by increasing trends. The increasing trend slope indicates that precipitation is concentrated within fewer rainy days, which could lead to an increase in heavy rainfall and flood events within this basin.
Conclusion: The PCI trend analysis results showed that most of the studied basin area has experienced increasing trends, meaning that precipitation has become concentrated within fewer rainy days. This increasing trend, which could be due to an increase in droughts in this basin, may exacerbate the occurrence of flood-like rainfall events within the basin. Therefore, the changes of this index in the sub-basins of Bandar Abbas-Sadij, South Baluchistan, Karun and Western Marzi have been statistically significant. This trend highlights the need for serious attention to flood, drought, and other hydroclimatological hazard management in this basin.
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