The chaotic nature of monthly rainfall in the Tabriz under climate change
Subject Areas :
Rasoul Jani
1
(
دانشجوی دکترای عمران دانشگاه آزاداسلامی واحد تبریز
)
Mohammad Ali Ghorbani
2
(
دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه تبریز
)
Abolfazle Shamsai
3
(
استاد دانشکده علوم پایه واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران
)
Keywords: Climate Change, Tabriz, rainfall, Chaos theory, LARS-WG model,
Abstract :
Population increase, changes in land usage and industrial activities' development have caused climate changes indifferent regions of the Earth. So studying these effects on rainfall process which is one of the most importantcomponents of water engineering studies. To considering ,extraordinary capabilities in chaos theory formodeling nonlinear and complex hydrological phenomena such as rainfall. In this study, monthly precipitation ofTabriz in the historical condition and climate change condition has been studied with this theory. For estimatelag time and phase state is using autocorrelation function and for chaos dimension applying correlationdimension method. Thus, the statistical period 1971-2000 as a historical period is chosen and the results of theLARS-WG model under two scenarios are (B1) and (A2) in three periods (2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099) as future periods. Results show historical period data with the fractal dimension of 5/96 which has a goodchaotic nature. In scenario A2, three series of data, has chaotic nature and their fractal dimension is lower ofhistorical data while in scenario B1, The three periods have stochastic behavior.
