Projection of extreme precipitation in climate change condition and sensitivity analysis of results to downscaling method

Subject Areas : Farm water management with the aim of improving irrigation management indicators

Mohammad Reza Khazaei ¹ , Reza Kazemi ²

1 - Department of Civil Engineering, Payame Noor University, I.R of Iran
2 - Technical and Engineering Department, Tehran Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

Received: 2020-03-09 Accepted : 2020-07-26 Published : 2020-10-22

Keywords: Extreme precipitation, Downscaling method, Uncertainty, Climate Change,

Abstract :

The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfalls will increase over many areas of the globe due to climate change. So, it is required to revise result of such studies based on the climate change scenarios. One of the most effective tools in such studies is Weather Generators, including LARS-WG. While GCMs predict future changes in the various characteristics of precipitation, usually in downscaling using LARS-WG, just changes of monthly averages are considered. In this paper, the future climate change impact on extreme precipitation in Gorgan and Khoramabad stations are assessed; while, the results of two methods of applying just change in averages (simple method) or applying changes in various characteristics of precipitation (complete method) in downscaling are compared. For future, CanESM2 outputs under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios for 2036-2065 period were used. The results showed that for climate change impact assessment on extreme rainfalls, additional to change in averages, change in other precipitation characteristics should be considered. Because the results of the two methods are different. In Gorgan, for example, the annual maximum daily rainfall with a return period of 15 years in the future will increase by 16 to 21 percent according to the more complete method, but between 37 and 49 percent according to the simpler method. Based on the complete, Intensity of the extreme rainfalls at both stations will increase in the future. This increase will be between 23% and 30% for the 2-year return period and between 25% and 29% for the 30-year return period.

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