Prediction Probable Flood and Maximum precipitation Using Poldukhtar Basin Suffered partial Series
Subject Areas : forestمهدی Mehdinasab 1 , تقی Tavoosi 2 , رضا Mirzaei 3
1 - دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد خرم آباد، باشگاه پژوهشگران جوان و نخبگان، خرم آباد، ایران
2 - دانشیار اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، دانشکده جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی، گروه جغرافیا طبیعی، زاهدان، ایران
3 - کارشناس ارشد آب های زیرزمینی، دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی، واحد علوم تحقیقات، گروه زمین شناسی، تهران، ایران
Keywords: Flood, the city Poldukhtar, partial series, the return period, Maximum sustained rainfall,
Abstract :
Floods are natural phenomenon that human societies have accepted it as an inevitable event but the event size and frequency of flooding is caused by several factors That is, depending on climatic conditions, natural and geographical each region changes. Annually in different parts of the world, many people's lives and properties due to flood risk falls And millions of tons of precious soil are destroyed by floods. One of the world is a flood natural disaster losses Bartryn. Statistical analysis has shown that about 70 percent of flood damage is caused by natural disaster in Iran This study estimated the a probable flood and maximum precipitation using Poldukhtar suffered minor series is action. The number 20 Heavy rainfall 24Hours over 40 millimeters The number 30 seals with more than 500 cubic meters per second was chosen discharge. Selection criteria for floods had chosen the first seal is attached to the previous flood. Thus, the interval between Two flood peaks from each other, must be at least 3 times the amount of time discharge began to reach the stage of the flood hydrograph peak flow needs. Secondly, the amount of discharge after the first flood and before the second flood in less than one third flood peak is reached first.The series detailed method to estimated the flood discharge and The maximum sustained 24-hour rainfall return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 and 200 years has been And the results showed that each year, probably 99.99 percent slapped with a flow rate 606.32 cubic meters and a 24-hour precipitation amount of 43.07 millimeters Poldukhtar happening in theBasin
References
1- Adamowski, K., 2000. "Regional analysis of annual maximum and partial duration flood data by nonparametric and l-moment methods", Journal of Hydrology, 229, 219-231.
2- Foody, G.M., E.M. Ghoneim, W.N. Arnell, 2004. Predicting Location Sensitive to Flash Flooding in Arid Envirinment, Journal of Hydrology, 292: 48-58.
3- Hijazi Zadeh, Z., T. Salehi Pake, 2002. Estimating maximum sustained rainfall in the catchment Bryzmamlv, Journal of humanities literature,58-51.
4- Khoshhal, J., h. A. Ghayur, d. Rahimi, 2005. The Gumbel Mixed Model Applied to Analysis for Frequency Maximum Precipitations in North Karun Basin, Geography and Development, Third Year, Serial No. 5,68-53.
5- Kumar, R., C. Chatterjee, 2005. Regional flood frequency analysis using L-Moments for North Brahmaputra region of India, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 10, 1-7
6-Liong, Sh., WE. Lim, T. Kojiri, T. Hori, SY. Liong, WH. Lim, M. Anderson, N. Peters, D.Walling, 2000. Advance Flood Forcasting for Flood Stricken Bangladesh with a Fuzzy Reasoning Method, Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources.
7- Mahdavi, M., 2007. Applied Hydrology, Vol 2, Tehran University Publications, Edition6.
8- MohammadPour, R., T. Sabzwari, 2007. Flood zonation using GIS (design studies QAREAGHAJ part of the river in the province), the first urban GIS Conference.
9- Negaresh, h., T. Tavosi, M. Mehdi Nasab, 2011. Assessing the severity of flooding Kashkan River catchment, Journal of physical geography, fourth year, Serial No. 13, Fall, 58-49.
10- Ouarda, T.B.M.J., J.M.Cunderlik, A. St-Hilaire, M. Barbet, P. Bruneau, B. Bobée, 2006. Data-based comparison of seasonality-based regional flood frequency methods, Journal of Hydroloy, Article in Press.
11-Rezaei Pzhnd, H., b. Ghareman, 2006. Estimating of maximum sustained 24-hour rainfall stations were provided by the North Khorasan, Iran Water Resources Research, second year, 53-43.
12- Salinger.M., G. James. 2005. Climate variation and change: Past, Present and Future, An Overview . Climatic Change 70: 9-29.
13- Silviera, L.F., Charbonnier and L. Genta, 2000. The Antecedent Soil Moisture Condition. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 45(3): 3-12.
14-Tajbakhsh, M., b. Ghareman, 2009, Estimating maximum sustained 24-hour rainfall statistical methods in the North East of Iran, Journal of Soil and Water Conservation Research, Volume XVI, Number One,141-123.
15- Vaskov, I., 1993. Rainfall analysis and regionalization computing intensity duration – frequency curves, Universidad polytechnic devalencia 95- 109.
16- Yazdani, M.R., 2000. Determination of maximum flood discharge from small watersheds using the SCS graphical M.S Watershed, Supervisor doctor Mohammad Mahdavi, Department of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, p 120.
_||_References
1- Adamowski, K., 2000. "Regional analysis of annual maximum and partial duration flood data by nonparametric and l-moment methods", Journal of Hydrology, 229, 219-231.
2- Foody, G.M., E.M. Ghoneim, W.N. Arnell, 2004. Predicting Location Sensitive to Flash Flooding in Arid Envirinment, Journal of Hydrology, 292: 48-58.
3- Hijazi Zadeh, Z., T. Salehi Pake, 2002. Estimating maximum sustained rainfall in the catchment Bryzmamlv, Journal of humanities literature,58-51.
4- Khoshhal, J., h. A. Ghayur, d. Rahimi, 2005. The Gumbel Mixed Model Applied to Analysis for Frequency Maximum Precipitations in North Karun Basin, Geography and Development, Third Year, Serial No. 5,68-53.
5- Kumar, R., C. Chatterjee, 2005. Regional flood frequency analysis using L-Moments for North Brahmaputra region of India, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 10, 1-7
6-Liong, Sh., WE. Lim, T. Kojiri, T. Hori, SY. Liong, WH. Lim, M. Anderson, N. Peters, D.Walling, 2000. Advance Flood Forcasting for Flood Stricken Bangladesh with a Fuzzy Reasoning Method, Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources.
7- Mahdavi, M., 2007. Applied Hydrology, Vol 2, Tehran University Publications, Edition6.
8- MohammadPour, R., T. Sabzwari, 2007. Flood zonation using GIS (design studies QAREAGHAJ part of the river in the province), the first urban GIS Conference.
9- Negaresh, h., T. Tavosi, M. Mehdi Nasab, 2011. Assessing the severity of flooding Kashkan River catchment, Journal of physical geography, fourth year, Serial No. 13, Fall, 58-49.
10- Ouarda, T.B.M.J., J.M.Cunderlik, A. St-Hilaire, M. Barbet, P. Bruneau, B. Bobée, 2006. Data-based comparison of seasonality-based regional flood frequency methods, Journal of Hydroloy, Article in Press.
11-Rezaei Pzhnd, H., b. Ghareman, 2006. Estimating of maximum sustained 24-hour rainfall stations were provided by the North Khorasan, Iran Water Resources Research, second year, 53-43.
12- Salinger.M., G. James. 2005. Climate variation and change: Past, Present and Future, An Overview . Climatic Change 70: 9-29.
13- Silviera, L.F., Charbonnier and L. Genta, 2000. The Antecedent Soil Moisture Condition. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 45(3): 3-12.
14-Tajbakhsh, M., b. Ghareman, 2009, Estimating maximum sustained 24-hour rainfall statistical methods in the North East of Iran, Journal of Soil and Water Conservation Research, Volume XVI, Number One,141-123.
15- Vaskov, I., 1993. Rainfall analysis and regionalization computing intensity duration – frequency curves, Universidad polytechnic devalencia 95- 109.
16- Yazdani, M.R., 2000. Determination of maximum flood discharge from small watersheds using the SCS graphical M.S Watershed, Supervisor doctor Mohammad Mahdavi, Department of Natural Resources, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, p 120.
