Evaluation of the impact of climate change on extreme flows in Kan watershed

Subject Areas : Farm water management with the aim of improving irrigation management indicators

Baharak Motamedvaziri ¹ , mehdi ahmadi ² , Hasan Ahmadi ³ , Abolfazl Moeini ⁴ , Gholam Reza Zehtabian ⁵

1 - Department of Forest, Range and Watershed Management, Faculty Natural Resources and Environmental, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 - Department of Forest, Range and Watershed Management, Faculty Natural Resources and Environmental, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
3 - Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
4 - Department of Forest, Range and Watershed Management, Faculty Natural Resources and Environmental, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
5 - Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran

Received: 2019-08-19 Accepted : 2019-12-18 Published : 2020-01-21

Keywords: Rainfall- Runoff, Climate modeling, HadCM3, CanESM2,

Abstract :

Climate change is one of the major challenges affecting the natural ecosystems and various aspects of human life. The effects of global warming on the hydrology and water cycle in nature are very serious, and the quantitative recognition of these effects creates more readiness to deal with its consequences. In the present study, the 2010-2100 periods is predicted based on SDSM and ASD. Finally, the effect of climate change on the hydrological conditions in the Kan watershed is simulated using the ANN and IHACRES. The results of the study, while confirming the efficiency of both SDSM and ASD models in climate simulations and ANN and IHACRES in hydrological simulation, showed that the increase in precipitation (2-27%) and temperature (0.3- 4/4 C) is probable in future climate conditions for the 2010-2100 periods. Runoff changes in the upcoming period (2010-2039) show an increase (5- 36 %) in the scenario of RCPs and a decrease (32- 41%) in scenario A2. The high flow value in the upcoming period is increased, and the low flow decrease. Most changes were observed in spring. The results of research, while highlighting the importance of effects of climate change, make it essential to apply them for proper management in order to adapt to climate change in the future policies of the Kan watershed management.

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