Potential Expected Climate Change Impact on Persian Gulf Coastal Mangrove Ecosystems Based on Temperature and Precipitation Variables

Subject Areas : ارزیابی پی آمدهای محیط زیستی

Hana  Etemadi ¹ (Assistant Professor of Environmental Sciences, Persian Gulf Research Institute, Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran *(Corresponding Author))
Hossein  Delshab ² (PhD in Environmental Science, Science and Technology Unit, Azad University, Tehran, Iran.)

Received: 2017-09-24 Accepted : 2018-04-18 Published : 2020-04-20

Keywords: Down-Scaling, Climate Change, Persian Gulf Mangroves, temperature, Precipitation,

Abstract :

Background and Objective: Climate change and global warming are one of the most widespread and important environmental hazards. The purpose of this study is to investigate the trend of minimum, maximum and rainfall temperatures in the past period of Bushehr as a coastal province of the Persian Gulf and predict its climatic future by the end of 2100 AD, as well as the possible effects on the mangrove forest ecosystems of the Persian Gulf. Method: In this research, the statistical down scaling model (SDSM) along with two different GCMs entitle CanESM2 in three RCP2.6, RCP4.5 RCP8.5 scenarios and HadCM3 in A2 scenario, were used to simulate climatic variables during base (1961-2005), current and future (2010–2099) periods in Bushehr synoptic station. Furthermore, model evaluation and uncertainty assessment performed by five different statistical criteria and a non-parametric bootstrapping technique, respectively. Findings: The linear regression of the observed winter and summer mean temperature showed that mean temperature has increased +1.8 and +1.7°C over the past 47 years, respectively. Both, CanESM2 and HadCM3 model simulation results demonstrated that the most raise of minimum and maximum temperatures will occur in the future cold seasons. But, CanESM2 simulation analysis revealed that a decrease trend will occur in the minimum and maximum temperatures through future warm months. Also, HadCM3 simulation results showed that precipitation will rise in summer and fall seasons, while CanESM2 results presented an increase in rainfall variable throughout the year. Discussion and Conclusion: Both of models have predicted warmer winter in the next several decades. Based on CanESM2 model results that we will have longer warmer seasons, there is a possibility of prolonging reproduction (germination and flowering) season in Persian Gulf mangroves from 3 to 6 months. Based on our results, future rainfall is more likely to become more frequent and intense. If those precipitations do not occur in extreme events, accompany with high temperature can cause more mangrove expansion and growth in future decades.

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