Precipitation Trend Analysis in Zohre-Jirahi Basin in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province

Subject Areas : Hydrology, hydraulics, and water transfer buildings

Amirabbas  Mahmoudian Bidgoli ¹ (Department of Civil Engineering, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.)
Mohammadsadegh  Sadeghian ² (Department of Civil Engineering, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.)
Ali  Saremi ³ (Department of Water Engineering and Sciences, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran)
hooman  Hajikandi ⁴ (Department of Civil Engineering, Central Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.)

Received: 2022-08-20 Accepted : 2022-10-16 Published : 2023-07-23

Keywords: Mann-Kendall, Sen's slope, Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad, Precipitation, Trend analysis,

Abstract :

Background and Aim: Water resources management has long been the focus of residents in Iran. Knowing of the time and the amount of rainfall contributes to better planning for water resources management, and this can be examined according to the available statistical data. The need for knowledge about precipitation trends in the study areas facilitates and legalizes water resources management and planning and helps to supply water with a higher reliability factor. The purpose of this research is to estimate and analyze the precipitation trends in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province within the  Zohre-Jirahi basin.Method: This research is carried out in the Zohre-Jirahi basin in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad province based on the data from 1966 to 2018. In this regard, first, meteorological stations related to the studied area were located and their statistics were extracted from the received data. The stations’ data homogeneity is calculated based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov method, and those without homogeneous data or with limited data are removed and, 30 stations are selected for data rebuilding. Rebuilding of missing data is done with Inverse Distance Weighted methods with the power of two and ordinary linear Kriging and after evaluating the methods by three criteria of Root Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, and Coefficient of Determination, the optimal method is selected to rebuild the missing data in this study area. After rebuilding the data, a multi-dimensional raster containing rainfall information related to the years of the statistical period is produced and the time series of the relevant data is created in an array and per surface unit. In this research, according to the surface of the study area, time series of 8915 points are analyzed, and the trend of changes based on the Mann-Kendall method and Sen's slope on an annual and monthly scale are assessed in these points and, raster maps are produced.Results: Among the methods used for rebuilding missing data, based on the evaluation of the models, the optimal method for rebuilding missing data in the study area was the Inverse Distance Weighted method with a coefficient of determination of 0.95.The results of calculations on an annual scale show that the average Sen's slope in the study area does not have a significant trend and is equal to 0.0011. The average Sen's slope in the study area on a monthly scale is 0.28 in April and has an upward trend, in May Sen's slope is equal to -0.03 and indicates a downward trend and in June and July, an unobserved trend, and the results of Sen's slope calculations are zero. In August, there is an upward trend, and it’s value is equal to 0.11. In September, there is an upward trend, and it is equal to 0.06. In October, there is no observed trend, and it is equivalent to zero. In November and December, the trend is upward, and the average Sen's slope in the study area is equal to 0.19 and 0.62, respectively, and in January, February and March, the downward trend is equal to -0.48, -0.55, and -0.14.Conclusion: The results do not demonstrate a significant trend on an annual scale, however on a monthly scale, in December, April, November, August, and September, respectively, the highest upward trend is observed, while in February, December, March, and May, respectively, have the highest downward trend, and June, July, and October lack trends. The maximum average Sen's slope is calculated for December and equal to 0.62, and its minimum is in February and equal to -0.55. The management of water resources, especially in the agricultural sector as the main consumer, has large economic and social dimensions and is inevitable, and due to the great impact of water supply time to optimize and increase productivity, this research can be used to review the pattern and time of cultivation in this area. Groundwater artificial recharge, storage process, and consumption process should adapt to the new changes.

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