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Open Access Article
1 - Innovation Management Model in MAPNA Power Equipment Manufacturing with Future Approach
Abbas Khamseh Golnaz SardashtiIn order to grow, profitability and reduce the risk of innovative activities in power plants, its innovation and management has a special place. Innovation management can help in investing and choosing the right methods to acquire technology, which plays a significant r MoreIn order to grow, profitability and reduce the risk of innovative activities in power plants, its innovation and management has a special place. Innovation management can help in investing and choosing the right methods to acquire technology, which plays a significant role in developing and building the country's economic infrastructure. Innovation management process is influenced by several factors. To better manage the innovation process, it is necessary to understand the effective factors and the way each one works. The purpose of this research is to identify the factors affecting innovation management in the power industry in order to design an innovation management model. The statistical population of this research is the experts and managers of the MAPNA group with a bachelor's degree and above, with a seniority of over three years. In this research, a descriptive survey type has been used. Data were collected using two methods of library studies including studying books, dissertations, articles and sites and field method, such as data collection through questionnaires and interviews. To provide the model, the system dynamics and Vensim software have been used. According to the results of this study, 26 indicators were identified as final indicators in 5 factors including: organizational systems and infrastructure, search, selection, implementation and acquisition of value as factors influencing innovation management in power plant manufacturing industries and the innovation management model was designed based on the dynamics of the system. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - Future studies of aviation industry behavior based on demand and expansion capacity of passenger terminals scenarios using system dynamics
Ehsan Mohebbi Babak Shirazi Ali TajdinDue to the high speed of relocation, air transportation has particular importance for the development of socio-economic systems of each region or country. The wide area of Iran in order to the geographical characteristics and economic growth speed has the high potential MoreDue to the high speed of relocation, air transportation has particular importance for the development of socio-economic systems of each region or country. The wide area of Iran in order to the geographical characteristics and economic growth speed has the high potential for the expansion of air transport. The main purpose of this paper is to the future study of Iran’s air travel demand and passenger terminals capacity. The paper has presented a method for developing the air passenger demand forecast model and the scenarios related to runway and passenger terminals capacity expansion. The approach meets the future demand from the point of view of system dynamics in the horizon of 2020. Although there are a number of studies in the air transport field based on the system dynamics, the researchers have not been conducted to investigate the demand for air travel and the development of passenger terminals capacity in Iran. Due to the developed model and study, the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios different sensitivity values have been compared within these three scenarios . Scenarios are designed based on capacity factors, the number of flights per day, the use of airport runways, and airline congestion. Using the different conditions of scenarios and predicting the conditions that may occur in the future for the country's airline industry, it is possible to test the overall behavior of the model. In order to verification and validation of the proposed method, Vensim system dynamics simulation have been used for model development and sensitivity analysis. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Designing a Dynamic Model Based on Poverty and Deprivation Alleviation in Livelihood (Case study: Armed Forces Retirees)
Farshad Faezy Razi Nasrin Shamshiru Hadi Hematyan Mohamad ZargarToday, poverty is considered from the most important problems in a country. This study dynamically models the poverty and deprivation alleviation in community livelihoods, with emphasis on armed forces retirees. The modeling of this study was performed using system dyna MoreToday, poverty is considered from the most important problems in a country. This study dynamically models the poverty and deprivation alleviation in community livelihoods, with emphasis on armed forces retirees. The modeling of this study was performed using system dynamics, which is a computer simulation modeling technique. In this study, firstly, effective and impressive factors on poverty were identified and then analyzed by combining retirement empowerment policies. The results of the study on performing political scenarios and retiring decisions, such as the adoption of support services decisions, self-employment facilities, interest-free loans, sport services, consuming and educational services, show that the behaviors of the model variables tend to be in the direction of alleviating deprivation and poverty in society. In this regard, correct decision-making for retirees will improve empowerment, promote research and development, reduce demand for merchandise, increase entrepreneurship, improve wages and income, and further, reduce poverty. All analyzes are performed by Vensim software, which is the most comprehensive simulation software to improve the performance of actual systems. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Investigating the Impact of Prosperity of Future Employees on Organizational Agility(case study: Islamic Azad University of Khuzestan Province)
ghanbar amirnejadThe main objective of this research is to investigate the effect of future welfare facilities for organizational agility. The research is applied based on the purpose and is descriptive and exploratory based on the data collection method. The statistical population of t MoreThe main objective of this research is to investigate the effect of future welfare facilities for organizational agility. The research is applied based on the purpose and is descriptive and exploratory based on the data collection method. The statistical population of the study consisted of experts and experts of Islamic Azad universities in Khuzestan province, In a targeted sampling method, 25 individuals who have knowledge and expertise in the subject of research were selected to form the expert panel. After extracting the factors from the research background, using the semi-structured interview and the open questionnaire, expert opinions were drawn and the original model was designed. In the next step, each of the main factors and their type was subjected to expert judgment through another questionnaire, in interaction with other components. This questionnaire was designed to extract relationships between variables and determine the weight coefficients of indicators and determine the type and position of factors in relation to other components. Finally, data analysis was performed using the system dynamics method and through the scenario in Vensim software. The results showed that improvement of housing facilities is an attractive research scenario, which in addition to organizing the organization, also improves the quality of working life. Improvement of cultural and sport facilities was also identified as a desirable research scenario. Also, the results showed that the granting of grant facilities does not have much impact on organizational agility. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Creating an innovation ecosystem with system dynamics approach
rozita dabbagafrouz Alireza Bafandeh Zendeh Mohamd PasebaniThe main goal of the research is to Create innovation ecosystem with the systemic dynamics approach in the Tabriz. Data collection tools are research literature and semi-structured interviews. The statistical population of the study includes researchers from Tabriz Univ MoreThe main goal of the research is to Create innovation ecosystem with the systemic dynamics approach in the Tabriz. Data collection tools are research literature and semi-structured interviews. The statistical population of the study includes researchers from Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, managers of knowledge-based companies and health policy makers. Eighteen members of the statistical population were selected by targeted snowball sampling. According to this methodology, first to explain the problem and identify the boundary of the model, the key variables and the trend of these variables were studied over time. Then, the structure of the problem was identified in the form of causal-loop diagrams and accumulation stock and flow map. After testing the model in the fourth stage, four scenarios for improving the innovation ecosystem in the fifth stage were evaluated. Analysis of the scenarios showed that improving government rules, reducing bureaucracy, and increasing the percentage of profits that industry should devote to research and development have the greatest impact on the dissemination of health innovation. Improving international relations came in second, and the scenario of material and immaterial incentives came in fourth Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - Making the Scenarios of knowledge management component effects on supply chain with system dynamics approach
elham elmi adel azar farhad ghaffariBackground: In advanced organizations, managers' decisions and policies along the supply chain require the use of knowledge management. One of the most important decisions to be made in the supply chain is the production planning, that it’s management needs provid MoreBackground: In advanced organizations, managers' decisions and policies along the supply chain require the use of knowledge management. One of the most important decisions to be made in the supply chain is the production planning, that it’s management needs provident decisions and designing new capacities with a comprehensive and continuous approach, and it’s not achievable through a static approach. Objective: This study seeks to provide a dynamic model to investigate the impact of possible knowledge management scenarios on the components of the oil supply chain in the framework of systems thinking. Methods: Current study based on purpose ,is an applied research and based on data character is a quantitative and qualitative and based on data acquisition that is a casual-analytical research. This research is studied in a petrochemical products production company in a 20 years period .And thanks to questionnaire and expert validation ,first basic variables detected and their relations compiled in casual loops, then basic model completed by flow accumulation diagram and simulated by vensim software. Findings: The proposed scenarios evaluate the effects of knowledge management variables on production rate and reduction of wastage rate. Conclusion: This model has succeeded in increasing the production rate and reducing the waste rate in the supply chain by providing appropriate outputs and utilizing knowledge management components. Also, validation tests and sensitivity analysis performed on the model show its validity. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - Presentation of a Model of Sustainability Performance Assessment for scenario building in the LARG Supply Chain
Mehdi Izadyar Abbas Toloie Eshlaghy Zahra MehriBackground: Supply chain sustainability has become one of the most important issues in today's business environment and plays a very important role in increasing competitiveness. Improving sustainability in supply chains is one of the strategic objectives in the current MoreBackground: Supply chain sustainability has become one of the most important issues in today's business environment and plays a very important role in increasing competitiveness. Improving sustainability in supply chains is one of the strategic objectives in the current business. Therefore, it is essential to assess the sustainability performance of the newly implemented management strategies. Objective: The purpose of this paper is to provide a model for assessing the sustainability performance of LARG supply chain management practices in the automotive supply chain using the dynamics system. Methods: first, LARG supply chain management practices were identified by reviewing the literature and interviewing industry experts and were prioritized using fuzzy DEMATEL and fuzzy analysis network process and were presented as an integrated approach to LARG supply chain management practices. Finally, the dynamic system has been used to assess the dynamics of LARG supply chain management practices and their impact on sustainable performance in the supply chain. Results: The research findings show that the scenarios of improvement in in the implementation of total quality management (TQM) and just in time (JIT) lead to a more sustainable supply chain. The results of these scenarios show sustainability improvement in the supply chain. Conclusion: The results show that lean strategy is a very important for achieving sustainability in the supply chain. The proposed model helps industry managers and decision makers to identify the results achieved from implementing LARG supply chain management practices and improving effective practices on sustainability in the supply chain by adopting policies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - An analysiz on Yazd province tourism in 1404 by system dynamics
Seyed Habibollah Mirghafouri Mir Mohammad Asadi Mohammad saleh MazidiThe national development comprehensive document has mentioned that Iran must at the end of seventh development program in 1404 achieve to 20 million foreign tourists, Among our touristic provinces, Yazd province have a glorious aspects of historical civilization of Iran MoreThe national development comprehensive document has mentioned that Iran must at the end of seventh development program in 1404 achieve to 20 million foreign tourists, Among our touristic provinces, Yazd province have a glorious aspects of historical civilization of Iran. So it is very important we study the current situation and future of tourism in this province. So this study is going to find a dynamic model to estimate foreign incoming tourist to Yazd in 1404 with current situation and checking the probable scenarios.this research is applied by pupose and qualitative study by methodology and descriptive analytic. At the beginning by tourism research literature and resources for determining the tourism situation of a region and interviews with 20 Yazd tourism experts, try to fine out the effective variables of Yazd such as security, transportation … In next step by variables quantities and their effects on each others, its causal loops diagram designed and the flow diagram ran in vensim software. The results shows by current tourism situation of Yazd continue till 1404, instead of at least 1.3 millions foreign tourists at most will achieve to 100,000 foreign tourists. By this result, another couple of variables`s situations in scenarios form researched and offered some suggestions such as focus on human resources training, effective and meaningful advertisement, reinforcement the private section … and also reliability and stability of model confirmed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - Measuring effective components in trust and social participation for tax policy
Alireza Rostami Abass Toolooee eshlagi Reza RadfarTodays, tax revenues play an important role in financing governments. The issue of increasing tax revenues and possible ways for this increase is an attractive issue for governments. Especially in a single-product economy like Iran, whose main source of income is the vo MoreTodays, tax revenues play an important role in financing governments. The issue of increasing tax revenues and possible ways for this increase is an attractive issue for governments. Especially in a single-product economy like Iran, whose main source of income is the volatile and unpredictable oil income. This research aims, while briefly introducing the presented models and classifying them, effective factors in increasing tax revenues and evaluating public trust and participation in the field of taxation have been examined and identified with a meta-integration approach, and the main components of this model include legal factors, social factors, there are cultural factors, managerial factors, political factors and managerial factors. Then, in order to better understand the variables affecting this relationship and understand the existing dynamics, using the approach of system dynamics modeling and drawing causal-loop diagrams (CLD), a model for evaluating trust and public participation in the field of taxation is presented and finally simulated so It was done by Vensim software. The simulation results indicate the positive effect of economic factors on public trust and participation in the tax field, with the point that the effect of economic factors is greater than the simultaneous application of all components. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - Human Resource Planning Model of Mehr Eghtesad Bank Using System Dynamics
Amir behboudi gol khatmi Houshang Taghizadeh Alireza Bafandeh ZandehBackground and objective: Adopting a strategic approach in the field of human capital management and human resource planning can be used to transform the strategic goals of the organization into human resource strategies and adapt people to the strategic needs of the or MoreBackground and objective: Adopting a strategic approach in the field of human capital management and human resource planning can be used to transform the strategic goals of the organization into human resource strategies and adapt people to the strategic needs of the organization, both in the short and long term. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to present the human resource planning model of Mehr Eghtesad Bank using system dynamics. Method: The study is a qualitative research that in terms of purpose is a developmentapplied and in terms of research method, is a descriptive-analytical type that has been performed with Delphi technique. The statistical population of this study consists of 15 human resource planning experts who have executive background in the bank or scientific activity in the university.In this study, a questionnaire and documents in Mehr Eghtesad Bank were used to collect data and in order to analyze the data in this research, Delphi method and system dynamics modeling were used. The identified effective factors on human resource planning in Mehr Eghtesad Bank were used as system boundary variables and a dynamic hypothesis was developed based on causal diagrams and based on it, flowaccumulation diagrams were drawn and formulated. Results: According to experts, employment indicators, staff resignations, workload, new skills, skilled and specialized staff, number of employees, manpower supply, manpower training, training time, training costs, quality of services, variety of services, new bank technology and number of customers Fourteen factors affecting human resource planning in Mehr Eghtesad Bank. The findings of the modeling section show that the parameter of maximum employment in Bank Mehr Eghtesad has a direct relationship with the number of manpower, manpower outflow and training hours. Conclusion: The results of this study, by creating a dynamic system framework, help human resource planning to overcome the limitations of the existing system for human resource planning, and by providing different scenarios for Bank Mehr Eghtesad, provide a suitable decision-making framework for bank managers and them. Enables them to make more appropriate decisions and to predict the system's response to changes in key variables using simulation execution. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - Presenting a policy model for managing the supply chain risks of raw materials in conditions of uncertainty with a systems dynamics approach (Case study: Refractory industries)
Mehdi Yousefzadeh Naser Feghhi Farahmand Soleyman IranzadehBackground and Aim: Due to the existing dynamics, it is necessary to achieve the goals of supply chain management of refractory industries, creating coordination between different levels of supply chain, identifying influential factors and identifying how different risk MoreBackground and Aim: Due to the existing dynamics, it is necessary to achieve the goals of supply chain management of refractory industries, creating coordination between different levels of supply chain, identifying influential factors and identifying how different risks interact, which ultimately requires analyzing large volumes of information. For this purpose, the purpose of the present study is to provide a mesh line model in the management of supply chain risks of raw materials in conditions of uncertainty with a dynamic approach to systems in refractory industries. Method: In terms of purpose, the present study is part of applied research. The statistical population of the study included the managers of refractory industries in the country, which was selected as a sample size by a purposeful method available to 15 people. Library and field methods and refractory industry database tools were used to collect information. In order to analyze the data, the systems dynamics approach and Wensim software were used. Results: The simulation results showed that there are two mesh lines to reduce supply chain risks that in the structure of cooperation between suppliers and partners, it is important to pay attention to long-term returns and in shaping key factors to reduce supply chain risks in the absence of conditions. Certainty in the refractory industry, it is necessary to focus on the fact that long-term returns should be considered in the short run. Conclusion: According to the findings, in order to reduce supply chain risks in the uncertainty of refractory industries, in the short term, they should focus on reducing the level of differences in work situations and conflicts between them, and partners and suppliers in the long run to resolve conflicts. They should be non-functional in the system and keep its level to a minimum. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - A dynamic modeling of future pricing for investment asset with known income
Reza Tehrani Amirali Abbaszadeh Asl masoud FekriThere are different ways of system analysis. System thinking is a novel and very effective method in this field. Actually, system dynamic approach offers a dynamic model of a process in the real world and systematically analyzes related factors. In other words, it indic MoreThere are different ways of system analysis. System thinking is a novel and very effective method in this field. Actually, system dynamic approach offers a dynamic model of a process in the real world and systematically analyzes related factors. In other words, it indicates the influence of changes on each effective factor on the entire system in each moment. In this paper, primarily, a dynamic model is proposed by investigating different effective factors on future price of assets which include known income and the way of arbitrage opportunities with non-correct prices are simulated. Thus, scenarios are offered to illustrate the changes of different effective factors on system and arbitrage opportunities made as a result to these changes Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
13 - The Effects of Value Co-Creation on the Effectiveness of Digital Health Platforms: A Dynamic Process Model
mohsen radpour seyed hassan hataminasab shahnaz nayebzadehIntroduction: The positive and negative effects of value co-creation and patient participation in the field of digital healthcare and its feedback together and in the form of a model is a topic that has been less addressed. The main goal of this research is to investiga MoreIntroduction: The positive and negative effects of value co-creation and patient participation in the field of digital healthcare and its feedback together and in the form of a model is a topic that has been less addressed. The main goal of this research is to investigate the effects of value co-creation on the effectiveness of digital healthcare platforms in the form of a dynamic process model. Methods: In order to achieve the goals of the research, the indicators of the effectiveness of digital health platforms were extracted from the selected information society. In the next step, using the system dynamics approach and Vensim PLE software, the cause and effect diagrams of the three subsystems of the problem were drawn, and the research model was extracted in the form of an accumulation and flow diagram. Results: In this research, patient empowerment was considered as a bridge between value co-creation and effectiveness of digital health platforms. After carrying out the research steps, cause and effect diagrams of three process readiness subsystems, value network and process achievements were extracted. Then the research model was completed by adding its complexities and dynamics in the form of accumulation and flow diagram. Conclusion: The obtained model, while depicting the dynamics of the problem, can be used as a reference for simulating and testing value co-creation development strategies in the effectiveness of digital health platforms. Although it is necessary to formulate and simulate the model to predict the effect of co-creation of value on the effectiveness of digital health platforms, but considering the prevalence of positive feedback over negative in the obtained model, it seems that paying attention to the approach of co-creation of value in the development of digital health functions has positive effects. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - Dynamic Modeling of Economic System in Iran
Mahdi Alvani Golam Reza Memarzadeh Mohammad Ali Afshar Fahimeh Aghajani -
Open Access Article
15 - A Simulation Based of Setting Policy in Project Acceptance Based on Experiences in Project-Driven SME's
S. Izadin R. Radfar J. Nazemi -
Open Access Article
16 - Analyzing the effect of internet advertising on Iran’s industrial market, using a systemic approach and Fuzzy DEMATEL method
ALI SHAHABI reza radfarNowadays, advertising has become an inseparable part of human life. Considering the principal that says ‘as long as there is a need the advertising exists’, an industrial and civilized, or in other words, today’s society, cannot sustain without adverti MoreNowadays, advertising has become an inseparable part of human life. Considering the principal that says ‘as long as there is a need the advertising exists’, an industrial and civilized, or in other words, today’s society, cannot sustain without advertising goods and services. In order to recognize the affecting variables In the area of internet advertising on industrial market, and to understand its relating dynamisms, Delphi method and literature of the subject is used, and a primary model using System Dynamics Modeling approach and drawings of Casual Loop Diagram were suggested, which illustrate variables and dynamisms in this field. To study the effect of variables and obtaining the final model, fuzzy DEMATEL technic is used. Based on the proposed model, Industrial market development, website development, online advertising, profits and user engagement, has the greatest influence.The results show a strong mutual relationship between advertisement and the level of industrial market development, and this procedure can improve in a dynamic cycle through the time. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
17 - AIDA model simulation with an emphasis on integrated marketing communications (Case of study: Ligno activator product of Jahan Kesht Falat Sabz)
seyyed moslem alavi Seyyed Mohammadhashem musavee HaghighiIn this study using system dynamics approach we tried to forecast the behavioral pattern of each of the four dimensions of Aida model with an emphasis on the role of integrated marketing communication (IMC) elements. Required data to forecast the behaviors of variables MoreIn this study using system dynamics approach we tried to forecast the behavioral pattern of each of the four dimensions of Aida model with an emphasis on the role of integrated marketing communication (IMC) elements. Required data to forecast the behaviors of variables are extracted from a database of jahan Kesht Company and using Vensim software we performed scenario based analysis. Findings showed that at the end of 10 years of predictions if company increase its budget on integrated marketing communication elements including public relation, advertising, personal selling and promotion (0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2), the number of customers in terms of the number of people who are attracted, motivated, intended to buy and loyal, goes up to (2572,1276, 621, 402) respectively. In addition, scenario analysis showed that if marketing budget share of company's total budget and especially budget share of IMC of company's marketing budget will increase, the number of customers in each of the 4 levels would be increased and in consequence the second policy will be the most attractive one. Another finding of the scenario analysis revealed that the scenario of retaining old customers against attracting new customers, although during the next 5 years can lead to more loyal customers and less new customers, but after 6th year, it will result in less new customers and even less loyal customers. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
18 - Analyzing the Effect of Internet Advertising on Iran’s Industrial Market, Using Fuzzy Dematel Method and a Systemic Approach
R. Radfar A. ShahabiNowadays, advertising has become an inseparable part of human life. Considering the principal that says ‘as long as there is a need the advertising exists’, an industrial and civilized, or in other words, today’s society, cannot sustain without adverti MoreNowadays, advertising has become an inseparable part of human life. Considering the principal that says ‘as long as there is a need the advertising exists’, an industrial and civilized, or in other words, today’s society, cannot sustain without advertising goods and services. In order to recognize the affecting variables In the area of internet advertising on industrial market, and to understand its relating dynamisms, Delphi method and literature of the subject is used, and Fuzzy Dematel Techniques were used to determine the effect of variables. According to results, there was a strong bilateral relationship between internet advertising and the development of the industrial market that this process can be strengthened over time as a dynamic cycle. Also industrial market development, development of online website advertising, and participation of users, has the greatest influence. Finally, a dynamic model was provided using systems dynamics modeling approach and drawings of Casual Loop Diagram(CLD) to better understand this dynamics relationship. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
19 - Designing A Dynamic Model of Iranian Financial Markets Using System Dynamics
Masoumeh Mirzaie Nejad Limoie reza radfar mir feyz fallah kiamars fathiExamination of macro indicators and the level of economic development shows the inefficiency of financial markets. A limited portion of GDP is devoted to investing in the production of goods and services, and a significant portion of it is absorbed in speculative activi MoreExamination of macro indicators and the level of economic development shows the inefficiency of financial markets. A limited portion of GDP is devoted to investing in the production of goods and services, and a significant portion of it is absorbed in speculative activities in unproductive financial markets. The present study has modeled the performance of financial markets using system dynamics. For this purpose, first using the financial markets data of gold, land and construction, capital market, bank deposits, market dynamics and financial consequences of investing in markets were examined. The financial markets dynamics model was designed and after model validation, simulation was performed on a ten-year horizon (1408-1398). According to the behavior of variables and model sensitivity analysis, financial market development policies including "capital market development", "liquidity reduction monetary policy", "land and building market organization" and "gold market organization" are identified and identified separately. The model was applied and the results of comparison and behavior were analyzed. According to the model findings, hybrid policies have been presented as the best policies for the development of productive financial markets based on the dynamics of Iran's financial markets. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
20 - Evaluation of the effect of cropping pattern on groundwater resources of Mehranplain using the system dynamics approach under scenarios of energy price changes
Ebrahim Darvishi Abdolrahim Hooshmand Hamza ali alizadeh zahra Izadpanahcropping pattern changes and increasing energy tariffs helps groundwater resources management. The aim of this investigation was to study the effect of crop pattern on groundwater level in Mehranplain using the system dynamics approach under different scenarios of energ Morecropping pattern changes and increasing energy tariffs helps groundwater resources management. The aim of this investigation was to study the effect of crop pattern on groundwater level in Mehranplain using the system dynamics approach under different scenarios of energy price changes. To develop the model, a conceptual framwok was designed and the dynamic hypotheses were formulated. The calibration and validation of the model were performed for a period of 8 and 6 years, respectively, and the model simulated in a 25-year period until 1420 in nine scenarios. The results showed that changing the crop pattern from alfalfa to conola with increasing 100 percent in energy tariff would have the most positive impact on aquifer is equivalent to an increase of about 55 million cubic meters of aquifer water volume, and an increase of about 8 meters in the groundwater level. Also changing the crop pattern from alfalfa to corn with increasing 50 percent in energy tariff lead to groundwater level stability. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
21 - A Dynamic Modeling for Effects of Dual-Fuel Vehicles on the Production of Pollution and Energy Consumption
Hamid Reza Fartookzadeh Hassan EshraghiBackground: Subsidies for energy and emissions from fossil fuel consumption in large cities, due todual-fuel policy in the country, given the widespread use of this policy, economic and environmentalimpacts need to be studied more in the long run.Methods: After reviewin MoreBackground: Subsidies for energy and emissions from fossil fuel consumption in large cities, due todual-fuel policy in the country, given the widespread use of this policy, economic and environmentalimpacts need to be studied more in the long run.Methods: After reviewing the literature on the advantages and disadvantages of dual-fuel vehicles,using the methodology of dynamic systems that is one of modeling methods for social and dynamicsystems, create a dynamic model about the influence of dual-fuel cars on energy consumption,subsidiaries for energy and pollution. So by running the model, the long-term effects of the currentpolicy, is examined.Results: Based on the outputs of the simulation model, dual-fueling policy, only reduces the growthrate subsidies and air pollution, and does not solve the problem basically.Conclusion: Considering the costs of dual-fueling policy and not getting the desired output, seemsprimitive to other strategies, such as creating a basket of fuel or the development of CNG vehiclesburning in the matter, and, secondly, in the process of dual-fueling, the supplement policies should beused. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
22 - An Environmental Pattern for Sustainable Urban Transportation Planning Using a Dynamics System Model
Mahdi Ostadi Jafari Amir Abbas RassafiAcceptance of a worldwide sustainable development strategy result is the need to design the relevant comprehensive measures. Furthermore، the inevitable complication in economical، social and environmental interactions and their effects on the society needs efficient ur MoreAcceptance of a worldwide sustainable development strategy result is the need to design the relevant comprehensive measures. Furthermore، the inevitable complication in economical، social and environmental interactions and their effects on the society needs efficient urban system models. The current study، utilizing a dynamics system model، presents an approach to simulate cause and effect relationships between transportation and those parts of the society that usually considered in sustainable development studies. A management scheme for Mashhad is suggested to improve environmental indicators by evaluating the forecasted 15 scenarios during the years 2009 to 2029. In this evaluation، increasing cost of energy contents and limitation for single occupancy vehicles، have the most environmental effects as well as the ability to minimize the growth of environmental measures during 20 years. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
23 - Dynamic analysis of a comprehensive model of risk management in the banking system using a systems thinking approach
seyyed yahya asadollahi aliasghar taherabady farhad shahveisi farshid kheirollahiThe banking industry, as one of the most important sectors of the economy, plays a very important role in attracting and directing depositors, providing services to people and participating in economic and social development, and in this way, it faces many risks that ar MoreThe banking industry, as one of the most important sectors of the economy, plays a very important role in attracting and directing depositors, providing services to people and participating in economic and social development, and in this way, it faces many risks that are particularly important to manage and control. One of the important steps for management of the risk is determination of the factors affecting on it. The purpose of the study is to present a dynamic model for bank liquidity risk management. For this purpose, system dynamics methodology has been used to find the risk-generating structure and provide an effective solution to manage it. In this method, the stimulation of different scenarios is possible by providing a mathematical model. In this regard, the results of the implementation of the four decision-making scenarios on the model were simulated and analyzed. The results show that decreasing the legal deposit and deferred loans and increasing the deposit attraction will affect on reducing banks' liquidity risk. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
24 - Simulation of Model Changes by Exchange Rates and Gold Price on the Tehran Stock Exchange Performance with System Dynamics Approach
A. Naghi Mosleh Shirazi M. Hashem Moosavihaghighi Hooman PashootanizadehIn this study, after considering the important impact of Stock market on the country’s economy, it will analyze the long-term relationship between Tehran Stock exchange market and the variables of exchange rate and gold’s price. Keeping this in mind, by usin MoreIn this study, after considering the important impact of Stock market on the country’s economy, it will analyze the long-term relationship between Tehran Stock exchange market and the variables of exchange rate and gold’s price. Keeping this in mind, by using the System Dynamics method and the relationship between Financial, Stock exchange, exchange rate and gold market’s data, it will analyze and simulate the movement of large capitals from the stock market (in this study, Chemical industry) to the currency and gold market and vice versa. The simulation is done with the Vensim DSS Software. The overall result is showing that the change in the Macro Economic variables will increase the value of the stock market. In this study, it has used different scenarios for changing the macro economic variables and the results are showing that decreasing and increasing the interest rate by 5% will increase and decrease the stock market’s value respectively 21.86% and 3.14% on future. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
25 - Presenting of Investment Model for Interaction Between Industry and University with System Dynamic
Mahdi Homayounfar Abbas Toloie Ashlagy Mahdi Fadaei AshkikiSystem dynamic as emergency approach in modeling & Complex System analysis. In this paper, we use based on SD, modeling for interaction between industry and university. The research result show that can design casual chart between inventory and flow.System dynamic as emergency approach in modeling & Complex System analysis. In this paper, we use based on SD, modeling for interaction between industry and university. The research result show that can design casual chart between inventory and flow. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
26 - پیش بینی الگو برای واحدهای تصمیم گیرنده در تحلیل پوششی داده ها
مرتضی شفیعی فرهاد حسین زاده لطفی هیلدا صالحاگرچه تحلیل پوششی داده­ها یک ابراز قدرتمند برای ارزیابی عملکرد واحدهای تحت ارزیابی می­باشد ولی این تکنیک دارای محدودیت­هایی نیز می­باشد. به عنوان نمونه یکی از محدودیت­های این روش، ارزیابی عملکرد سیستم براساس ورودی و خروجی­های قدیم است بنابر Moreاگرچه تحلیل پوششی داده­ها یک ابراز قدرتمند برای ارزیابی عملکرد واحدهای تحت ارزیابی می­باشد ولی این تکنیک دارای محدودیت­هایی نیز می­باشد. به عنوان نمونه یکی از محدودیت­های این روش، ارزیابی عملکرد سیستم براساس ورودی و خروجی­های قدیم است بنابراین نتایج ارزیابی به­دست آمده از مدل­های کلاسیک DEA، برای پیش بینی تغییرات کارایی واحدها در آینده و در نتیجه ارایه الگوی مناسب برای رسیدن به یک واحد کارا، کاربردی نمی­باشد . بنابراین هدف این مقاله پیشنهاد یک روش جدید به منظور پیش بینی کارایی سیستم براساس ورودی و خروجی شبیه سازی شده با استفاده از سیستم پویا و تکنیک­های شبیه سازی است. زیرا با پیش بینی کارایی واحد تحت ارزیابی، مدیران در یک سیستم می­توانند برنامه ریزی دقیق­تری برای آینده داشته باشند. برای این منظور با استفاده از یک حلقه بازخورد، ورودی­ها و خروجی­ها در واحدهای تصمیم گیرنده در آینده مورد پیش بینی قرار گرفت سپس با استفاده از مدل CCR و ورودی­ها و خروجی­های پیش­بینی، شده به پیش بینی کارایی واحد تحت ارزیابی پرداختیم. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
27 - توسعه مدل برای ارزیابی پایداری در زنجیره های تامین لارج با استفاده از پویایی سیستم
مهدی ایزدیتر عباس طلوعی علیرضا آقاقلیزاده زهرا مهریبه دلیل رشد فشارهای جهانی برای پایدارشدن سازمانها در تمام سطوح سازمانی برای دستیابی به زنجیره تامین پایدار با شیوه های مدیریتی جدید روبرو هستند. هدف این مقاله فراهم آوردن مدلی برای ارزیابی عملکرد پایداری شیوه های مدیریت زنجیره تامین ناب، چابک، تاب آور و سبز (لارج) با اس Moreبه دلیل رشد فشارهای جهانی برای پایدارشدن سازمانها در تمام سطوح سازمانی برای دستیابی به زنجیره تامین پایدار با شیوه های مدیریتی جدید روبرو هستند. هدف این مقاله فراهم آوردن مدلی برای ارزیابی عملکرد پایداری شیوه های مدیریت زنجیره تامین ناب، چابک، تاب آور و سبز (لارج) با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی سیستم می باشد. در این مقاله، شیوه های مدیریت زنجیره تامین لارج شناسایی و اولویت بندی می شوند با استفاده از دیمتل فازی و فرایند تحلیل شبکه ای فازی. یافته ها تحقیق نشان می دهد که سناریوهای بهبود در اجرای مدیریت کیفیت جامع، تولید به موقع، حمل و نقل انعطاف پذیر و سناریوی ترکیبی (تولید به موقع و روابط بلندمدت با با تامین کنندگان) منجر به پایداری بیشتر در زنجیره تامین می گردد. نتایج این سناریوها نشان دهنده بهبود پایداری در زنجیره تامین می باشد. همچنین نتایج نشان می دهد که استراتژی ناب د ر دستیابی به پایداری در زنجیره تامین بسیار مهم می باشد Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
28 - Modeling Liquidity Risk Management in Banking Using System Dynamics Approach
Seyyed Yahya Asadollahi Ali Asghar Taherabadi Farhad Shahveisi Farshid Khairollahi -
Open Access Article
29 - Designing the Optimal Model of Banking Assets and Liabilities Management based on System Dynamics Approach
fatemeh Taheri Mohammad Setayesh mohammad hasan janani mahmoud hematfar -
Open Access Article
30 - Modelling the effect of monetary policies of central bank on macroeco-nomic indicators in Iran using system dynamics and fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making techniques
Mehdi Memarpour Ashkan Hafezalkotob Mohammad Khalilzadeh Abbas Saghaei Roya SoltaniThe most important policymaker entity in the bank-centered economy of Iran is central bank of Islamic Republic of Iran which has always been trying to manage and improve macroeconomic indicators by applying monetary policies. However, investigation of Iran's economy aft MoreThe most important policymaker entity in the bank-centered economy of Iran is central bank of Islamic Republic of Iran which has always been trying to manage and improve macroeconomic indicators by applying monetary policies. However, investigation of Iran's economy after four decades shows that this country has always suffered from double-digit inflation rates and 15000-fold liquidity throughout this period, while GDP of Iran has grown only by two times during this period. This paper tries to evaluate the effect of monetary policies of central bank on macroeconomic indicators by analytical-descriptive and library method via combining system dynamics and fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making using Vensim and Super Decision software. Monetary policy instruments in this re-search include foreign exchange rate, deposits interest rate, facilities interest rate, required reserve ratio, and open market operations. Further, the macroeconomic indicators include inflation, liquidity, national foreign exchange value, and eco-nomic growth. The results indicated that the most important macroeconomic indi-cators in the country according to economic experts are "national foreign ex-change value" and "inflation". The most important tool for monetary policies of central bank is "foreign exchange rate". Indeed, in order to improve the economic misery index, this bank should take measures to improve the national foreign exchange value, then manage inflation and liquidity, and eventually adjust the banking interest rate Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
31 - A System Dynamics Approach to Designing Technological Innovation Management Model in Downstream Petrochemical Industries
Hamid Doulabi Abbas khamseh Taghi Torabi -
Open Access Article
32 - Dynamic System Analysis of R&D Based on Localization Capabilities in the Commercial Auto Industry
Soraya Lashgari Sadegh Abedi Seyedjavad Iranban -
Open Access Article
33 - Modeling Optimal Capital Structure Via System Dynamics Approach
Hamid Abdoli Reza Tehrani Amen Khadivar -
Open Access Article
34 - Simulating the Maintenance Performance on the Attractiveness of Data Center Services: A System Dynamics Approach
Mohammedreza Bahrami Gholamreza Hashemzadeh -
Open Access Article
35 - Modeling Open R&D Ecosystem Via System Dynamics Approach A Case Study: Nanotechnology
Pourya Abbasi Reza Radfar -
Open Access Article
36 - Designing and implementation of a fuzzy-dynamic model to evaluate system’s risk and reliability
Majid VaziriSarashk Sohrab KhanMohammadi Mahmood Alborzi Seyed Mohammad Seyed Hoseini -
Open Access Article
37 - A Study on Productivity Model of Supply Chain in Industrial Units by System Dynamic Approach
Farideh Bornaee Bojd Keyvan Shahgholian Bagher Kord -
Open Access Article
38 - Designing Hybrid Simulation Model Using Paradigms of Discrete Event Simulation and System Dynamics in Order to Analyze Insurance Company
Reza Shakerin Abbass Toloie Eshlaghy Reza RadfarAccording to the increasing role of competition among insurance companies in achieving greater market share, insurance companies are forced to seek methods for increasing customer satisfaction and loyalty. The insurance companies pay special attention to the provided se MoreAccording to the increasing role of competition among insurance companies in achieving greater market share, insurance companies are forced to seek methods for increasing customer satisfaction and loyalty. The insurance companies pay special attention to the provided service quality and thus the duration of service delivery plays an important role in customer perception of service quality.This study attempts to design a model for increasing customer satisfaction and its effect on the market of insurance sales by using simulation paradigms. The present study is descriptive in terms of purpose because it tests the relationship between the declared variables during the research in a particular community and in terms of method, a quantitative study based on the mathematical modeling approach with combined simulation paradigms using Anylogic software. The research findings show the designed model is matched with the real world, which means the output data is accurate and valid. After relating the Discrete Event Simulation Model by identifying the interaction points with the System Dynamics Simulation Model, the mixed scenario in increasing sales has been implemented. Considering the Discrete Event Simulation Model and System Dynamics Model are implemented interactively with each other at the beginning of the simulation model, so due to high rate of customer satisfaction, the input rate is raised by the System Dynamics Model and percentage of employee performance is increased. As the number of dissatisfied customers increases over a period of time, the input rate is reduced by the System Dynamics Model until the system is finally balanced. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
39 - Test and Validating the Group Model Building with the Reference Model
Ali Haji Gholam Saryazdi Manuchehr ManteghiIn recent years, in system dynamics society has increased attention to qualitative approaches. One method of extracting models of qualitative system dynamics has been many used is a Group Model Building. In this method, clients are involved in the modeling process. Base MoreIn recent years, in system dynamics society has increased attention to qualitative approaches. One method of extracting models of qualitative system dynamics has been many used is a Group Model Building. In this method, clients are involved in the modeling process. Based on Participants mental models are extracted key structures and latent variables in the system. In this regard, compare the group models with reference models from the literature can be a way to test and evaluate a model. And provide new insights. In this paper we evaluate and compare models of group modeling sessions extracted from the project "Designing Aviation Technology Park" with the reference model derived from the literature review, by using the distance ratio approach of three levels, including the elements, the causal loops and the full model level. As became clear from the results of this approach the MDR = 6.84 which indicates that the model as the reference model and the group models were similar. EDR and LDR values indicate between model elements and the loops level were similar. In conclusion we can say that the model is a valid model and the resulting models are consistent with other studies in the literature. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
40 - Prioritizing Strategic Indicators and Objectives Based on Balanced Scorecard at Iranian Oil Pipelines and Telecommunication Company and Providing Model Dynamics Model
Somaieh Alavi Isa Nakhai Ali AzariAchieving strategic goals is a prerequisite for reaching out to the prospect. Since prioritization is important in all strategic systems, the priorities in the first phase must be cleared in order to exclude some goals in favor of others, and then in the second stage, t MoreAchieving strategic goals is a prerequisite for reaching out to the prospect. Since prioritization is important in all strategic systems, the priorities in the first phase must be cleared in order to exclude some goals in favor of others, and then in the second stage, the obstacles to the progress of these goals are examined and then Solutions to address these barriers. The purpose of this study was to identify and prioritize strategic objectives based on balanced scorecard funds in the Isfahan oil and gas pipeline company and provide solutions to remove barriers to their implementation. In the first stage, the goals were weighed and prioritized by multi-criteria AHP decision-making methods. The results showed that among the indicators of performance evaluation, the landscape of internal processes in the first priority and customer landscape, growth and learning, and finance are in the next order, respectively. The results of the ranking of different units of the company using the Topsis method indicate that the Repairs Unit has the first rank, and then the line repair and mechanical repair department respectively ranked second and third respectively. At the end, a system dynamics model was mapped and key variables were simulated in a 60-year period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
41 - Measuring the Readiness of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises to Enter E-Commerce
Abbass Toloie Ashlaghi Reza Radfar Naghei Shoja Farshid FarokhizadehGiven the growing importance of small and medium-sized enterprises and the role that e-readiness and e-commerce development have in reducing their costs and expanding their operations, evaluating e-readiness status for entering e-commerce field is important in SMEs. The MoreGiven the growing importance of small and medium-sized enterprises and the role that e-readiness and e-commerce development have in reducing their costs and expanding their operations, evaluating e-readiness status for entering e-commerce field is important in SMEs. Therefore, the design of e-readiness assessment models is appropriate to the internal and environmental conditions of organizations and communities with the aim of measuring their e-readiness level and without assessing the electronic readiness of the organization, the activity in the world of the impossible network or its barriers will be very high. In this paper, while introducing a brief overview of the proposed models for assessing e-readiness and their classification, the factors influencing the e-readiness of SMEs in order to enter the e-commerce field have been investigated and identified with a meta-integration approach. Then, in order to better understand the variables that affect this relationship and understand the existing dynamics, using a modeling of system dynamics approach and drawing causal loop diagrams (CLD), was introduced an e-readiness assessment model for SMEs to enter the e-commerce field and finally, simulation was carried out by Vensim software. The two major scenarios of increasing advertising and system quality were evaluated and analyzed as model levers. The simulation results indicate a positive impact of system quality and advertising on the e-readiness of firms, with the difference, the impact of system quality on e-readiness of firms is more than the impact of advertising on increasing e-readiness. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
42 - Dynamic Analysis of Ordering System in the Supply Chain with the Dynamics of Systems Approach
sayyed mohammad reza davoodi Shahab forutan chehrThe supply chain is a dynamic system that includes all activities related to the creation and delivery of a product, from the raw material stage to the final customer. Sapco's supply chain management needs future decisions and the design of new capacities with a compreh MoreThe supply chain is a dynamic system that includes all activities related to the creation and delivery of a product, from the raw material stage to the final customer. Sapco's supply chain management needs future decisions and the design of new capacities with a comprehensive and interconnected approach. One of the management tools based on this approach is the system's dynamic knowledge. This science has the ability to simulate the supply chain, with the help of this simulation, the uncertain outcomes of decisions are revealed. An analysis of the fluctuations in the behavior of customer orders can provide a key role in predicting customer demand, sales, timely delivery, sales staff adjustments, and other factors. In this paper, the dynamic analysis of the order system in the supply chain with the dynamics of the system is examined. In this paper, based on the principles of the dynamics of the system, following the statement of the ordering system problem in the supply chain, the hypotheses that give rise to the problem are explained; then the dynamic model related to the problem of fluctuations in the ordering system of presentation It will be. first, the main variables were identified and their relationships were formulated in the form of Ali rings, then, by designing the main model, in the form of flow accumulation chart, was simulated in the software. After designing and simulating the final model, validation tests and sensitivity analysis were performed on the model that showed the validity of the model. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
43 - Development of a dynamic model of knowledge management in Iran's oil industry Using the system dynamics approach (SD)
reza moeini jazani Ahmad Reza Kasrai AHMAD ASLIZADEH Tsohrabi sohrabiThis study simulates and simulates the knowledge industry management system of the oil industry using the system dynamics approach (SD) in order to policy the development of knowledge management of the oil industry to eliminate the gap between existing knowledge capital MoreThis study simulates and simulates the knowledge industry management system of the oil industry using the system dynamics approach (SD) in order to policy the development of knowledge management of the oil industry to eliminate the gap between existing knowledge capital and applied knowledge. First, with the participation of the planners involved in the Ministry of Oil, the organizational infrastructure of the success of the knowledge management system was identified and a causal chart was drawn based on the knowledge management process. The flow model was designed based on oil industry data and simulated on a 20-year horizon. After validating the model based on the results of the analysis of the sensitivity behavior of the variable knowledge gap, the development policies of the knowledge management system of the oil industry were extracted and analyzed. According to the research findings, three policies for the development of knowledge creation, the development of knowledge documentation infrastructure and the development of knowledge sharing in the oil industry, as well as the selection of a combination of policies were identified and simulated. As a result, the selected simulation is a combination of policies including the development of cooperation with the country's scientific poles, design of experience registration systems, culture-building of knowledge sharing, knowledge-based team building, respect for intellectual property rights, commercialization of oil industry knowledge as the best solution. , For the policy and planning of success, the establishment of the knowledge management system of Iran's oil industry was presented. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
44 - Development a dynamic model for analyzing and evaluating Startup scenarios in Iran
Farzad Haghighi-Rad Afshin Neshatitartups are the engine of the economy and the development of these businesses has a major impact on economic growth. To transform a startup into a powerful business in the business environment, finding an investor is a vital step that can drive startup companies to grow Moretartups are the engine of the economy and the development of these businesses has a major impact on economic growth. To transform a startup into a powerful business in the business environment, finding an investor is a vital step that can drive startup companies to grow and expand. In this way one of the major challenges of the founders of the emerging business is to attract investors to invest in supporting new ideas. To achieve this, by identifying the key factors affecting the success of emerging businesses based on the results of previous research, and using simulation models, different policies and scenarios can be made before implementing in an environment Laboratory test and scenario where the results of its implementation are justified in terms of investment. In this paper, the generic model of system dynamics presented by Huang and Konk (Xiaojun Huang, Martin Kunc, 2012) is intended as the base model. By defining a new variable, market attractiveness, the model is developed and various scenarios that are followed by the founders of startups have been evaluated. The simulation results indicate that increasing the attractiveness of the market will lead to an increase in potential customers and the process of converting it to actual customers Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
45 - A dynamic model for the optimal and sustainable development of the use of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) buses in Tehran
Seyed Jamalaldin Razavinasab Mahdi Fadaei Ashkiki Mahdi Homayounfar Maryam OoshaksaraieEnergy consumption management is essential because the natural resources should be preserved for the future people, and environment, the economy and the energy security of the country are also considered. Air pollution in Tehran has increased very much and thousands of MoreEnergy consumption management is essential because the natural resources should be preserved for the future people, and environment, the economy and the energy security of the country are also considered. Air pollution in Tehran has increased very much and thousands of people die every year because of it. In addition, the supply of diesel fuel under the current political circumstances of the country and the allocation of high value of subsidies to it have become a big problem for the government; the use of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) buses for public transportation can be a solution to this problem. However, the CNG buses are not widely used in recent years. Based on historical approaches and using system dynamics (SD), the factors and feedback affecting the sustainable increase in the number CNG buses are identified in this paper and a dynamic model is introduced for the optimal and sustainable development of CNG buses. The model was validated and a 10-year period was simulated; according to the results, if the government does not increase the rate of its purchased CNG buses, the rate of the CBG buses being used now will be reduced from 38 percent to 14 percent in 2032. If 282 new CNG buses are purchased annually, the number of CNG buses and the number of diesel buses will be almost the same in 2032. Accordingly, fuel pollution produced by the buses and the fuel subsidies will be reduced. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
46 - Studying and Analyzing Influential Demographic Variables on Support Ratio in Iranian Social Security Pension Fund Using System Dynamics
zahra karimian sichani mohammad hassan cheraghali ali dehghaniEvaluation and reform of pension systems are among the complex issues that due to the multiplicity of variables affecting each other and significant changes in the variables in the long term horizons, they can not be easily studied and analyzed. The purpose of this arti MoreEvaluation and reform of pension systems are among the complex issues that due to the multiplicity of variables affecting each other and significant changes in the variables in the long term horizons, they can not be easily studied and analyzed. The purpose of this article is to study and analyze demographic variables on the support ratio(Ratio of insured to pensioners ) in Iran’s Social Security Pension Fund. This shows to some extent the ratio of input to output of the fund, and based on it, the pressure on the fund can be estimated according to the amount of current insurance premiums and pension amounts. In this article, using information and statistics of mentioned fund and Iran Statistics Center in the years from 2016 to 2018, a model based on system dynamics was designed and By testing the model under certain conditions, reproducing past behavior and examining different policies, the model was validated. By 2033, the country's elderly population will double, while the working age population will grow by nearly 12 percent. These changes will affect the demographic structure, Also, according to the forecast, if the current conditions are maintained, the support ratio of the Social Security Fund will reach 2.19 by 2033. Informal (non-salaried) job participation, unemployed youth employment, women's economic participation and fertility rate are the most important influential population variables that can increase the support ratio to 3, 1/2, 1/4 0/5 units respectively ،if appropriate policies and planning are implemented. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
47 - Provide a system dynamics model for optimizing multi-objective production-inventory-routing in the green supply chain under conditions of uncertainty
Katayoun Naderi Roya M.ahari Javid Jouzdani Atefeh AmindoustThis study examines the cost, customer satisfaction and environmental protection to design a multi-objective optimization model using system dynamics and to provide a system dynamics model for multi-objective production-inventory-routing in the green supply chain under MoreThis study examines the cost, customer satisfaction and environmental protection to design a multi-objective optimization model using system dynamics and to provide a system dynamics model for multi-objective production-inventory-routing in the green supply chain under uncertainty. Considers.By customer demand for several periods, the model can make decisions by focusing on decisions such as the choice of supplier and retailer according to the distance between them, production models and the nascent level of transportation technology. For this purpose, to collect information, first using previous studies, the variables affecting the model (20 variables) were determined, then according to the experts, these variables were analyzed, then the relationships between the selected variables using the model. Cause and effect were identified and then the research modeling was completed by designing a system dynamics model and evaluating it through tests defined by execution in vensim software. Finally, three scenarios were developed to determine the strategies affecting the model. The results indicate the most effective strategies in achieving the desired situation, maximum customer satisfaction, minimum cost and inventory and maximum production with proper implementation of ongoing projects in the direction of green production using appropriate technical knowledge. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
48 - Designing a Model for Employment Development in Yazd Province by the System Dynamics Approach
Hamed Fallah Tafti Syed Ali Naghavi Mir-Mohammad Asaadi FiruzabadiThe inquiry about labor market evaluation in provinces of the country shows that Yazd is one of the provinces that have been faced with the more increasing unemployment rate in the recent years; as the unemployment rate in this province has increased from 5.2% in 1375 t MoreThe inquiry about labor market evaluation in provinces of the country shows that Yazd is one of the provinces that have been faced with the more increasing unemployment rate in the recent years; as the unemployment rate in this province has increased from 5.2% in 1375 to 9.4% in 1389. In this research, we intend to identify the major effective factors on employment development by designing the Yazd province employment model. We also intend to anticipate the future of the province employment with regard to the reciprocal relations of the factors and with attention to various environmental and demographic circumstances. The implementation of this model offers several scenarios in employment development on the basis of system dynamics principles; that can help the major decision makers choose the appropriate policies. The mentioned model is designed on the basis of system dynamics methods. For this reason, the Yazd province employment development was simulated by “Vensim PLE” software concerning the public and private sectors. A period of 30 years from 1385 to 1415 was selected for implementation and test validity of the model. In the end, after explaining the conceived situation for the future of the province employment, with presenting results of the model, a number of suggestions will be given to help choose the appropriate policies in taking future opportunities and increasing the management power against future threats. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
49 - Simulating the Impacts of Innovation Investment Policies on Organizational Knowledge Stock Using System Dynamics Approach
Mohammad Mirkazemi Mood Ali MohagharKnowledge is always recognized as an important factor in innovation. However, the needed knowledge for innovation is not always available to organizations readily and it requires that the organization generates a major part of the knowledge. Such knowledge creation can MoreKnowledge is always recognized as an important factor in innovation. However, the needed knowledge for innovation is not always available to organizations readily and it requires that the organization generates a major part of the knowledge. Such knowledge creation can happen through investing in innovation and developing new products. This study aims at investigating the complicated and dynamic nature of the relationship between knowledge creation and investment decision on innovation. Therefore, present paper uses a systematic view and system dynamics approach, as well as its tools such as casual diagrams, the flow diagram, and simulation. The tools are used to study the impacts of different investing policies on organizational knowledge stock. A case study is provided to test the applicability of represented model in the real world. The findings show that the most appropriate policy is allocating resource based on the gap between real knowledge stock and goal knowledge stock. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
50 - Designing an intelligent dynamic model of preventive maintenance and repairs in the textile and clothing industry in the interaction of production with the help of simulation (a case study of Borujerd textile factories)
سیدشهرام فاطمی مهرداد جوادی اسماعیل نجفی امیر عزیزیAbstractThe aim of the research is "designing a smart dynamic model of preventive net using simulation in interaction with production" based on the documentation of textile and clothing industries under the title of dynamic preventive net model. In order to calculate th MoreAbstractThe aim of the research is "designing a smart dynamic model of preventive net using simulation in interaction with production" based on the documentation of textile and clothing industries under the title of dynamic preventive net model. In order to calculate the dynamics of the system, Vansim software and research data were prepared based on a sample of 2000 data and reports from the textile and clothing industries during the years 2016 to the end of 2014 and the textile factories of Borujerd as the location of the project on a semi-annual basis. The results of the research show that the growth rate of "working environment on the net" has reached the lowest growth rate of 1.2% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2018 and a higher growth of 6% in 2014. The growth rate of "Internet technology" has reached an average growth rate of 1.2% in 1396, 5% in 1398, and a higher growth of 8.5% in 1400. The dynamic growth rate of the variable "Strategy in Net" has reached the maximum growth rate of 1% in 2016, 6% in 2018, and a higher rate of growth in 2014, i.e. 9.5% (optimal state). Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
51 - A New Robust Control Design
علی عجمی احد چهاندیده شندی -
Open Access Article
52 - Designing a model for optimizing talent management: with a system dynamics approach
Sayed Salman Zakaryayi Hossain khanifar.ir Salahedin Ebrahimi Bahman GholamiTalent management is the performance of a series of integrated activities to ensure the recruitment, retention, motivation and development of talented employees required by organizations now and in the future. This research seeks to identify the factors affecting talent MoreTalent management is the performance of a series of integrated activities to ensure the recruitment, retention, motivation and development of talented employees required by organizations now and in the future. This research seeks to identify the factors affecting talent assessment, optimal talent management, better understanding of the talent management process and its future prediction, which ultimately designed an optimal model and for this purpose has used the system dynamics (SD) method. The sample includes 150 managers, professors, and skilled staff in various organizations (universities, Ministry of Science and Education) and the data were collected by previous research, interviews with human resources experts of the organizations and a questionnaire collected, with the opinion of experts and groups. Focal point, cause-and-effect relationships were identified and plotted in vensim software, proposed scenarios and policies that indicated important influential factors for predicting future talent management, and finally an optimal model was designed to better understand talent management, optimal talent management and its future. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
53 - Human factors design strategy map focuses on the age composition of the labor force based on interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and a cognitive map of gray dynamic scorecard approach
nasim roudabr Meysam Jafari eskandariAging on the size and composition of the workforce has an important role in economic growth, impact. Countries with low or declining fertility rates, with very little increase or decrease labor supply face. Negative effects on economic growth may reduce the number of em MoreAging on the size and composition of the workforce has an important role in economic growth, impact. Countries with low or declining fertility rates, with very little increase or decrease labor supply face. Negative effects on economic growth may reduce the number of employees and the public welfare is at the macro level. . In the institutes level this object featuring itself in different area such as increasing insurance costs, absence from work place, increasing wage costs and also at growing disjoin rate and losing knowledge. In this paper we first survey workforce composition trend in Iran .then with surveying impacts of this object in institutes performance, the strategy map is drawn based on interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and a cognitive map of gray dynamic scorecard approach and express a strategic overview at organizations human resources focused on composition of the workforce. Results were analyzed with using Pajek software and FC mapper, then the key factors in strategic plan were identified based on centrality Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
54 - System Dynamics of strategic approach to Talent Management in Knowledge-based Organizations
somayeh shamani Seyyed Mohammad zargar Seyed Abdollah Heidarieh, hadi Hemathian,Today, the most important factor in the success of organizations is human resources, and talent management is important for the optimal use of human resources capabilities. Especially in knowledge-based companies, where manpower is the most valuable asset of these compa MoreToday, the most important factor in the success of organizations is human resources, and talent management is important for the optimal use of human resources capabilities. Especially in knowledge-based companies, where manpower is the most valuable asset of these companies. The purpose of this paper was to simulate and evaluate a model for talent management in knowledge-based companies using the system dynamics method and balanced scorecard. The model variables are extracted by studying the references related to the subject of previous research and by using the performance evaluation indicators of the balanced scorecard in 4 dimensions of finance, customer, growth and learning and, internal processes and design in the form of a dynamic model. After designing the model and confirming it by experts, the model was quantified and then evaluated by dynamic model validation tests, and finally, the scenarios were developed and simulated. The results of the scenario test showed that increasing the amount of substitution and training in the first scenario by increasing the number of talented people in the organization will increase organizational performance and increase competency management and career development in the second scenario By using talent in the organization as well as increasing the variable of the service compensation system and organizational justice in the third scenario, by maintaining talent, it will increase organizational performance. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
55 - Dynamic Risk Analysis of Bank service system, Supply Chain Stability Using social Network analysis(SNA) and System Dynamics(SD)
mitra khoshnevis farshad faezy razi kiamars fathi hafshejaniThe present research has analyzed the dynamic risks of the stability of the supply chain of banking services using social network analysis (SNA) and system dynamics (SD) in order to policy the stability of the supply chain of banking services. According to the results o MoreThe present research has analyzed the dynamic risks of the stability of the supply chain of banking services using social network analysis (SNA) and system dynamics (SD) in order to policy the stability of the supply chain of banking services. According to the results of SNA; Corruption risks of receiving facilities, customer dissatisfaction, shareholder dissatisfaction, bank service costs, the cost of establishing a new bank branch, demand for facilities, payment claims to customers and the bank's supervisory weakness as critical risks and risks of paper waste, urban traffic, cyber security, supervisory weakness and Lack of human resources were identified as the most causal risks . Next, the SD model was designed based on the interactions of critical risks and its effects on the stability of the supply chain of banking services using the data of Iran's Mehr Bank. According to the sensitivity analysis, the sustainability policies of the bank service supply chain, including financial, social and environmental sustainability, were identified and the results were compared and analyzed, finally, the selected combined policies included:1-Managing 5% reduction in bank costs through agility processes and expenditure monitoring; 2-Increasing the efficiency of the validation process by 4 times; 3-Increasing the fee income of banking services by increasing the allocation 3 times to the development of electronic banking infrastructure; 4-Implementation of employee empowerment training programs;5-Proportionalization of the number of employees; 6-Increasing electronic services in order to increase access to the bank; 7-Appropriate location of branches and ATMs; 8-Awareness and promotion of electronic services were provided Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
56 - Dynamic Modeling of Social System in Iran
Seyyed Mahdi Alvani Gholam Reza Memarzadeh Mohammad Ali Afshar Fahimeh AghajaniManagement can achieve the long term goals in a system by means of a dynamic framework. This article considers the problem of social development in macro level. Since social development has a dynamic and multidimensional nature, the system dynamics method has been used MoreManagement can achieve the long term goals in a system by means of a dynamic framework. This article considers the problem of social development in macro level. Since social development has a dynamic and multidimensional nature, the system dynamics method has been used in this article. In system dynamics approach, sustainability of social system is not increasing or decreasing in a system, moreover, it is not a static goal, making it impossible to achieve it. In this regard, four indicators of social development that is, population means, employment, water, and food are utilized for dynamic evaluation modeling. This model evaluates social development in Iran over the period 1989-2009 and predicts it until 2019. The results indicate there is a relationship between social development components. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
57 - System dynamics modeling for assessment of customer satisfaction criteria at the level of comprehensive quality management
Hasan Dehghan Dehnavi Zahra DelshadSuccess of comprehensive quality management is associated with the ability to learn, absorb, adapt and implement changes in organizational attitudes and their integration into the organization. The condition of the organization's success is to improve the company's perf MoreSuccess of comprehensive quality management is associated with the ability to learn, absorb, adapt and implement changes in organizational attitudes and their integration into the organization. The condition of the organization's success is to improve the company's performance in the area of rapid accountability in a customer-focused organization and operations based on comprehensive quality management. The purpose of this study is to investigate and improve the quality of customer-orientation using the system's dynamical approach. In this study, by reviewing the theoretical literature and a survey of experts and experts, the criteria for customer expectations were identified. After identifying components and customer expectations variables, simulation was started by providing dynamic hypotheses and causal circles, flow diagrams, and mathematical equations were completed. For this purpose, the Vensim software dynamics model provides a way to find out the relationship between the factors associated with meeting customer expectations. The results of this research can be used for industries that intend to plan for meeting the expectations of customers at the level of comprehensive quality management. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
58 - Employee Empowerment Model in Automotive Companies
Keyvan Shahgholian Shahed NaderiThis paper examines and simulates the job empowerment of the employees of the Saipa Automobile Company, and has achieved seven key factors as a major source of empowerment through library studies and field studies and the integration of theories of previous researchers; MoreThis paper examines and simulates the job empowerment of the employees of the Saipa Automobile Company, and has achieved seven key factors as a major source of empowerment through library studies and field studies and the integration of theories of previous researchers; then, in order to prioritize And determination of dependencies between the indices obtained from the instrument of ANP questionnaire with 5-point Likert scale were used for data collection and distributed among qualified experts. The data were analyzed using SPSS software. Weighted average of responses The results and for analyzing the interactions of variables on each other, the data entered into the soft The Super Decision has been ranked by the ANP method; the choice component is in the first rank and the other factors in the next rank; the results are obtained for a simulation model and the possibility of changing in each indicator And analyze the results of that change, are modeled through the System dynamics and different scenarios are simulated from constants and values of surface variables. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
59 - Assessing the impact of environmental aspects, land use, and R&D policies on peri-urban agriculture using a system dynamics approach
Armin Cheraghalipour Emad Roghanian -
Open Access Article
60 - A dynamics approach for modeling inventory fluctuations of the pharmaceutical supply chain in covid 19 pandemic
Parvaneh Tavakol Bijan Nahavandi Mahdi Homayounfar -
Open Access Article
61 - The Impact of Research and Development on the Organizational Agility and Productivity of Production Factors Using Structural Equations and Dynamical System Approach
Seyyed mohammad Zargar Seyyed Abdollah Heydariyeh Seyyed Majid TaheriResearch and development (R & D) play an important role in the development of societies and the country's economic growth and developed and industrialized countries have put a considerable investment on these issues. The aim of this study was to investigate the effe MoreResearch and development (R & D) play an important role in the development of societies and the country's economic growth and developed and industrialized countries have put a considerable investment on these issues. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of research and development on the organizational agility and productivity of the manufacturing companies in the industrial town of Semnan. In this research, after reviewing theoretical foundations and previous studies, a model of the effects of research and development on organizational agility and productivity was presented and validated using structural equation method. Then, based on the obtained results and using experts' opinions, a dynamic model was designed to show the dynamics of the variables over time. The validity of the model was evaluated and validated using system dynamic approach. The results in the first section indicate the positive significant impact of research and development activities on the agility and productivity. Additionally, the results of different simulations in the model revealed that an increase in research and development budget through a self-reinforcing loop after the twelfth month from the twelfth month after can make an increase in the agility and productivity in the form of exponential growth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
62 - Project Efficiency Estimation Based on Dynamic Simulation Model of Earned Value Management
Mojtaba Bakhshandeh Yahya Zare MehrjerdiEarned Value Management (EVM) is known as an efficient and well-known tool for project management. Examining various sources, it was observed that although the EVM analytical model has introduced good indicators for measuring project progress, it is weak in estimating t MoreEarned Value Management (EVM) is known as an efficient and well-known tool for project management. Examining various sources, it was observed that although the EVM analytical model has introduced good indicators for measuring project progress, it is weak in estimating the final cost of the project and does not predict the process of cost change and project efficiency. On the other hand, nothing has been done so far to use system dynamics in EVM.Therefore, considering the capacity of system dynamics in modeling complex systems and setting parameters dynamically based on model variables, the main problem of modeling research is the value model obtained by simulating system dynamics. The dynamic hypothesis of the research was that there are dynamics between the main indicators of EVM. Identifying these dynamics and the way they affect each other can lead to estimating the process of changing costs and project efficiency by the end of the project.Through presenting the causal loop diagram and the stack flow diagram of the proposed model, the variables were determined and after simulation, the model was validated by performing various tests and different policy scenarios were presented.The comparison of the results of the research simulation model with the results of the EVM analytical model revealed that there is a slight difference between the results and the efficiency. The main contribution of the research is the creation of a simulation model based on system dynamics as the core of the simulation to estimate the trend and the final amount of efficiency and cost of the project, which can be part of a more comprehensive simulation model.This can be used to determine the impact of various project management functions on improving project efficiency, which is the main suggestion for further research. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
63 - A System Dynamics Approach to Assessing Sustainability Performance of LARG Supply Chain Management Practices in Auto Parts Industry
Mehdi Toloie Eshlaghy Abbas Toloie Eshlaghy Seyed Mohammad Seyed HosseiniGrowing global pressures for higher industrial sustainability has persuaded organizations to implement new managerial techniques at all organizational levels to achieve supply chain sustainability. However, such novel management practices should be measured in terms of MoreGrowing global pressures for higher industrial sustainability has persuaded organizations to implement new managerial techniques at all organizational levels to achieve supply chain sustainability. However, such novel management practices should be measured in terms of the extent to which they may promote sustainability performance. The purpose of this study was, thus, to examine the dynamic behavior of LARG supply chain management practices and their impact on sustainability in the auto parts supply chain. Expert views were utilized in the present study to prioritize the LARG practices to achieve sustainability through fuzzy DEMATEL and the fuzzy analysis network process to present an integrated approach to LARG practices. Finally, the system dynamic approach was employed to assess the sustainability performance of LARG supply chain management practices. The finding indicated theAuto parts Supply Chain, Fuzzy Analytic Network Process, Fuzzy DEMATEL, System Dynamics, Sustainability significant role of improvement scenarios in the implementation of comprehensive quality management and punctual production, and thereby, in supply chain sustainability. The proposed model can assist industrial managers and decision makers to identify and adopt effective practices on sustainability in LARG supply chain management. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
64 - Presenting the system dynamic model to evaluate the performance of the technology supply chain based on the balanced scorecard
MMEHDI AMIRMIANDARAGH dariush faraji seyed ahmad shayan nia -
Open Access Article
65 - The effect of climate change on the distribution pattern of droughts in time and space using the index reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo)
Shahmorad Alizadeh Hosein Mohammadi Parviz KardavaniSeveral factors in the development of effective drought , which change and intervene in order to keep them from victory and their occurrence , and it is impossible to be foreign humanOn the same principle, the possibility that lives up to these requirements in any regio MoreSeveral factors in the development of effective drought , which change and intervene in order to keep them from victory and their occurrence , and it is impossible to be foreign humanOn the same principle, the possibility that lives up to these requirements in any region of the Earth's surface country rich and poor, wet and dry, developed and developing, etc. occur.In this study, meteorological data gathered from 19 weather stations in Iran during 2003-1961 using a composite index (CI) of meteorological drought analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics of drought in Iran. The frequency, scope and severity of drought calculated to reveal the spatial and temporal patterns in different sectors were examinedAnd then the system dynamics approach was to simulate the effects of different aspects. . ETo values in all stations in July reached its highest value. In all stations, ETo values from January to July increased and is then reduced until December. ETo Iran in the period 1961 to 2003 the average annual total is about 1154 mm. The annual average of 9.2 millimeters per year upward trend in Iran ETo (mm / yr) during the period indicated. Most of ETo in the year 1970 (mm / yr 1309) and then in 1999 and 2001 (mm / yr 1308) happened and minimum on the years 1979 (mm / yr 893) and 1990 (mm / yr 974) Find respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
66 - The Effects of Money Market on Gold Market with a Systemic Dynamics Approach
fatemeh khani Ahmad Jafari Samimi amirmansor tehranchian mohammdali ehsaniAbstract The purpose of this paper is to apply the system dynamics approach to forecasting the price of gold in Iran, identify the factors affecting the price of gold and simulate the trend of the impact of monetary policy on the price of gold in the period 1405-2010. MoreAbstract The purpose of this paper is to apply the system dynamics approach to forecasting the price of gold in Iran, identify the factors affecting the price of gold and simulate the trend of the impact of monetary policy on the price of gold in the period 1405-2010. The simulation is performed with Wenzim software. In different scenarios, the present paper simulates the change in liquidity volume, consumer price index and bank interest rates on the gold market. The results show that the price of gold is not only affected by the global ounce price and the value of the dollar, but also the control of liquidity and curbing inflation will play a significant role in stabilizing the gold market. The results confirm that the volume of liquidity and the consumer price index have a direct impact and a significant role in increasing the price of gold. The findings also show that changes in bank interest rates have no effect on changes in gold prices. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
67 - Designing a Dynamic Model for Iranian Tourism Industry Horizon in 2025 by Using System Dynamics Approach
Ali Hsein Samadi Ali Naghi Mosleh shirazi Anahita RoohiBy using SD approach in this study, we have developed a dynamic model for the future of Iranian tourism industry and simulated it during 2007-2025. Besides, to understand the dynamics involved, the purpose of this study is to forecast the industry’s future and to MoreBy using SD approach in this study, we have developed a dynamic model for the future of Iranian tourism industry and simulated it during 2007-2025. Besides, to understand the dynamics involved, the purpose of this study is to forecast the industry’s future and to observe the requirements to get the objectives in the horizon of 2025. The model designed includes three main sub-systems, namely; the demand for tourism, tourism activities, and tourism capacity building. By Vensim software, the simulation results of the model explain that, if the current rates of capacity development, advertisements, and human resource development activities continue in this industry, then, we will absorb only a demand about 5.5 million tourists in 2025, that is, well below the standard of 20 million tourists per year in the horizon of 2025. The results of the simulation reveal that, to reach the tourism objectives planned, firstly, 3 sub-systems mentioned above must be coordinated and worked well together, and secondly, some prompt actions should be planned to boost the effectiveness of advertisement, the training of workforce in this regard. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
68 - Impact of Type and Impedance Value of Fault Current Limiters on the Transient Stability of the Power System Taking in to Fault Clearing Time
Mahdi Dehghani Ashkezari Sayed Mahmod Modaresi Modaresi Sayed Amin Saied Tahera Daemi HamidReza AkbariIn general, the basis of operation of most fault current limiters is to reduce the short-circuit current by adding a large impedance to the system at the time of the fault. However, fault current limiters differ in the type of impedance and how the impedance adds and re MoreIn general, the basis of operation of most fault current limiters is to reduce the short-circuit current by adding a large impedance to the system at the time of the fault. However, fault current limiters differ in the type of impedance and how the impedance adds and removes the system. In this paper, taking into account three different locations for installing fault current limiter in a sample power network, as well as changing the type (inductance or resistance) and its impedance value in an extensive range, the effects of these parameters on the stability of the power system have been investigated and analyzed. The criterion used for the first time in this article by the authors to examine and evaluate the transient stability of the power system is the method of the difference between the accelerating and decelerating area. The basis of this method is based on the equal area criterion. Other issues addressed in this paper are presenting a method for locating and determining the optimal value of fault current limiter impedance to improve the stability of the power system. Also, the effect of fault clearing time on transient stability has been studied when the fault current limiter is present in the power grid. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
69 - Presenting a model based on factors affecting sustainable production according to the systems dynamics approach in the heavy vehicle industry
Ardalan Hosseini Hasan Mehrrmanesh Ahmad Reza KasraeiIn the current competitive environment, it is very important to produce and present products of interest to customers in the market so that companies can compete with foreign and domestic competitors, which requires choosing and implementing a suitable and valuable prod MoreIn the current competitive environment, it is very important to produce and present products of interest to customers in the market so that companies can compete with foreign and domestic competitors, which requires choosing and implementing a suitable and valuable production strategy in order to gain an advantage. It is competitive and more important to make it stable. The aim of the current research is to present a model based on factors affecting sustainable production in the heavy vehicle industry. The mentioned research is descriptive-analytical in terms of the basic purpose and in terms of the research method, and the data collection tool is a semi-structured interview. In this research, the statistical population is the managers and experts of one of the factories in the heavy automotive industry (Iran Khodrodiesel) and the sample number of 31 people was selected by snowball. In carrying out the simulations of the present research with Vensim software, a time horizon of 5 months was considered and the quantitative values and relationships between the variables were determined using a semi-structured interview. In this research, the model based on the factors affecting sustainable production with the systems dynamics approach, including numerous components and indicators, has been displayed in a tree diagram, with the four factors of sustainable supply, lean production, agile production, and production resilience, respectively. They have the most positive impact on the development of sustainable production in the heavy vehicle industry. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
70 - An Exploratory Perspective of Systematic Decision Making in Corona Crisis for SME Corporation Based on Grounded Theory and System Dynamics
Masoud Borhani Alireza Shirvani Zahra Alipoor Darvishi Roya M. Ahari In spite of the sufferings and problems that Corona crisis created for people all around the world it has had the advantage that the decision-making process needed to be reviewed it through institutions , organizations and More In spite of the sufferings and problems that Corona crisis created for people all around the world it has had the advantage that the decision-making process needed to be reviewed it through institutions , organizations and companies. It is helpful in order to reduce the risk of decision-making error for the public interest and the sustainability of organizations by maintaining human resources, providing financial resources , upgrading knowledge and the ability of the organization. To manage the crisis situations, at first it requires to know the complexity and level of crisis, then understanding the environmental conditions and finally the speed of changes and the uncertainty that caused by crisis. In order to make a decision – making model in this condition we require basic theory for answering the research questions and this will be done by grounded theory process after creation the theory and trying to improve that by secondary data analysis. In this paper , we explain how to develop basic theory to know decision making process in Corona crisis for SME’s that in line with qualitative goals of research. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
71 - Providing a System Dynamic Model to Predict Construction Status in Iran Using Sustainable Development Indicators
Morteza Golshanimanesh Hamidreza Abbasianjahromi Mohammad Ehsanifar S.Mohammad Mirhosseini -
Open Access Article
72 - System Dynamics Modeling and Simulation to Analyze the Role of Solar Energy in Secure Access to Sustainability
Maryam Ebrahimi Nazanin Pilevari -
Open Access Article
73 - Designing a Dynamic Model of Banking Services Sustainable Supply Chain Management Using System Dynamics (Case Study: Mehr Iran Bank)
Mitra Khoshnevis Farshad Faezy Razi kiamars Fathi Hafshejani -
Open Access Article
74 - Evaluation of trade and production policy in Iranian SME (a system dynamics model)
Farzad Haghighi‑Rad Ramin Ghadimi Farshad Goldoust -
Open Access Article
75 - The effect of supply network configuration on occurring chaotic behavior in the retailer’s inventory
M.J Tarokh N Dabiri A Shokouhi H Shafiei -
Open Access Article
76 - Dynamic modeling to determine production strategies in order to maximize net present worth in small and medium size companies
B Kiyani P Shahnazari Shahrezaei H Kazemipoor M Fallah -
Open Access Article
77 - Dynamics of Knowledge Management Behavior on Supply Chain Transportation and Logistics Based on System Dynamics Methodology
Elham Elmi Adel Azar Farhad GhaffariToday, supply chains in organizations are moving towards the use of effective systems and undoubtedly, knowledge is one of the integral components of such systems, in the supply chain is the most important and fundamental transportation process. Knowledge management com MoreToday, supply chains in organizations are moving towards the use of effective systems and undoubtedly, knowledge is one of the integral components of such systems, in the supply chain is the most important and fundamental transportation process. Knowledge management components to help the organization achieve higher performance in transportation and distribution. The aim of this study was to provide a dynamic model for evaluating knowledge management components to help the organization achieve higher performance in transportation and distribution. For a better understanding of system behavior, relationships between system variables must be developed and the amount of variables should be simulated over time using computers. vensim software has been used for this purpose. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
78 - Optimization of supply chain delivery to customer and demand management using knowledge management: system dynamics approach
Elham Elmi Adel Azar Farhad GhaffariIn global competition, a variety of products should be made available according to the customer's request, customer's demand for high quality and fast service, increasing the pressures that have not existed before; Consequently, companies for this global competition hav MoreIn global competition, a variety of products should be made available according to the customer's request, customer's demand for high quality and fast service, increasing the pressures that have not existed before; Consequently, companies for this global competition have to use knowledge management and are aware of the necessity of using knowledge in the organization. In this research, we are looking for a model to optimize the supply chain delivery to the customer using knowledge management in petrochemical products manufacturing company, and also due to the dynamic nature of knowledge management and the impact of its components on the supply chain, the system dynamic methodology has been used. More demand and ultimately leads to increased delivery of goods and greater customer satisfaction Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
79 - Operation of Multiple Reservoirs by utilization of Simulation Method for Analysis of System Dynamics
A Mansoori V Khatib -
Open Access Article
80 - تحلیل تأثیر بازار بورس بین المللی بر بازار بورس ایران : استفاده از رهیافت سیستم دینامیکی و GARCH
نعمت فلیحی تیمور محمدی معصومه شاه کرم اوغلی -
Open Access Article
81 - Novel Adaptive Recurrent Neural Controller based on VSC HVDC Damping Controller to Improve Power System Stability
Naser Taheri -
Open Access Article
82 - Application of Generalized Geometric Bravoni Motion Model by Markov Switching Regime Process in Stock Price Simulation: System Dynamics Approach
Nahid Malekiniya Hosein Asgari Alouj zaher sepehrianObjective: In this study, the changes of the stock price of Iran Khodro Company listed in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) has been studied on the issue of prediction modeling during of 9/13/1387 to 13/12/1396 based on Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model generalized by the MoreObjective: In this study, the changes of the stock price of Iran Khodro Company listed in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) has been studied on the issue of prediction modeling during of 9/13/1387 to 13/12/1396 based on Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model generalized by the Markov switching regime (MSR).Methods: The research model was designed by system dynamics (SD) approach and Vensim DSS software in the causal- loop diagrams (CLD) firstly and then after specifying the flow-state variables, mono-loop and two-loop stock–flow diagrams (SFDs) was designed and daily final stock price was simulated. Two-parameter of noise seed and time step were identified and applied as sensitivity analysis parameters.Results: The simulation error was estimated for the random variations of the noise seed and the time step configured by default user parameters up to 22/74 and 30/35 percent, respectively. Both parameters were calibirated due to higher simulation error than acceptable error of 15 percent. Trial - error and field observation methods was performed in order to appropriate estimation of the calibration parameters range.The post-calibration accuracy of simulation per noise seed parameter increased from 77/26 to 91/5 percent and per time step from 69/65 to 96/37 percent.Conclusion: Findings indicate that the error roots have reached to the ideal mode by optimizing of the calibration parameters as covariance inequality error approached to one unit and base inequality error and variance inequality error approached to zero and indicate functionality accuracy of the GBM generalized by the MSR in stock price simulation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
83 - Development of a Hybrid Model of Dynamic Simulation Systems and Network Data Envelopment Analysis to Predict and Evaluate Services Supply Chain (Case Study of Hormozgan Social Security Branches)
taleb pargar Morteza Shafiee Mohamadali Afsharkazemi kiamars fathihafshjaniThe Social Security Organization is the main focus of insurance in the private sector and is the largest insurer and is one of the major economic institutions responsible for providing support to other economic, social and household institutions. Therefore, in order to MoreThe Social Security Organization is the main focus of insurance in the private sector and is the largest insurer and is one of the major economic institutions responsible for providing support to other economic, social and household institutions. Therefore, in order to provide optimal service in the social security organization, it is necessary to design and implement a system of performance evaluation of the appropriate supply chain. For this purpose, in this study, NDEA was used to evaluate the efficiency and performance of the service supply chain in the social security organization. Because conventional DEA models operate on historical information, their greatest weakness is to determine the efficiency of decision-making units in the past and do not provide a framework for the future, so to solve this problem in this study and to predict future inputs and outputs from the method Simulation of system dynamics is used. In order to show the theoretical findings of the new model presented in a practical way, the performance prediction and performance evaluation of 15 Hormozgan provincial social supply chain branches in three years from 95 to 97 have been discussed.Finally, the efficient and inefficient branches were identified. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
84 - Modeling of exchange rate fluctuations with systems dynamics approach
mohammad hadi damiri parviz saeedi Hosein Didehkhani ebrahim abbasiAbstract The purpose of this research is Modeling of exchange rate fluctuations with systems dynamics approach. In this research, all the factors affecting the exchange rate have been identified and evaluated their systemic relationships. First, the trend and the exchan MoreAbstract The purpose of this research is Modeling of exchange rate fluctuations with systems dynamics approach. In this research, all the factors affecting the exchange rate have been identified and evaluated their systemic relationships. First, the trend and the exchange rate price were predicted using the system dynamics from 2004 to 2022 , and the results were compared with the trend and real exchange rate of the exchange rate. The results show that the exchange rate trend over the 19-year period has always been with a slight upward slope, but during the years 2012 -2013 and 2018-2017 there was a sharp rise in price and slope that is exactly the same as the real exchange rate trend. Also, comparing the exchange rate data to the market price and the expected exchange rate until 2018 shows that this model has been able to accurately assess the trend and predict possible failures. Key word: Exchange rate, system dynamics, forecast, trend. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
85 - Provide a dynamic model of financing small and medium enterprises (SMEs) with DANP approach
Bizhan Nosrati Barandagh Abbas toloie Ehsan Sadeh zeinolabedin aminisabeghThe purpose of present article is to design a dynamic model (DM) of financing SMEs according to Decision Making Trial And Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) based on Analytical Network Process (ANP) (DANP) approach. The innovation of this article is to take hybrid of DANP MoreThe purpose of present article is to design a dynamic model (DM) of financing SMEs according to Decision Making Trial And Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) based on Analytical Network Process (ANP) (DANP) approach. The innovation of this article is to take hybrid of DANP and DM in financing SMEs approach. This article has paid using different scenarios in financing SMEs and model simulation. The dynamic model is formulated therefore, based on previous literature and the fuzzy screening method, extracting effective factors on financing SMEs and causal link identified. Then it was included in the model using the DANP the relationships between them and the amount of impact coefficients are determined. Finally identify new financing methods over a 10 month period in order to test the accuracy of the model and to determine the behavior of the state and rate variables, we collected data from 24 SMEs. The behavior of research variables analyzing by evaluated in the framework of the model as well as sensitivity analysis the validity of the DM is designed. The results showed that SMEs use the designed model and the scenarios can be used to finance their business optimally. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
86 - Analysis of Cost and Asset Retrenchment Strategy on Corporates’ Financial Turnaround: Rent Creation Theory and System Dynamics Modeling
Mostafa Beheshti Seresht Mohammad Ali Dehghan Dehnavi Ali Naghi Mashayekhi Meysam AmiryCost and asset retrenchment strategy is one of the most common financial turnaround strategies followed by the firms facing performance decline and financial difficulties. In cost retrenchment, the main goal is to improve liquidity by reducing the cash outflow rate. In MoreCost and asset retrenchment strategy is one of the most common financial turnaround strategies followed by the firms facing performance decline and financial difficulties. In cost retrenchment, the main goal is to improve liquidity by reducing the cash outflow rate. In asset retrenchment, the first goal is to increase productivity through redeployment of assets and the second goal is to finance through the divestment of low-yield assets. Although this strategy has been considered by many researchers as a necessary and effective strategy in financial turnaround of the firms, the results of several empirical studies have shown in some cases this strategy is the cause of further decline and a barrier to financial turnaround. In this paper, we intend to show how the cost and asset retrenchment strategy affects Schumpeterian and Ricardian rent creation mechanisms in the firm, and to find the conditions under which it improves or deteriorates the effectiveness of financial turnaround, using the system dynamics modeling method. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
87 - Simulate the Model of the Effects of Alternative Assets Volatility on Overall Index of Tehran Stock Exchange and Housing Prices with Using System Dynamics
habibollah Ranaei Kordsholi abbas abbasi Hooman PashootanizadehAccording to the importance of effectiveness and influence of alternative assets in the portfolio theory framework and proportional to the fluctuation of these assets in our country, predicting the probable changes in the price of these assets and their influence on the MoreAccording to the importance of effectiveness and influence of alternative assets in the portfolio theory framework and proportional to the fluctuation of these assets in our country, predicting the probable changes in the price of these assets and their influence on the Tehran Stock Exchange's index and the price of real estate proportional to the changes on the international price of oil, is vital to get analyzed from different angles. The purpose of this research is to present a model to predict the influence of the alternative assets on the Tehran Stock Exchange's index. This model is built with the factors including system dynamics, currency rate, gold price, international price of oil and real estate's price. The virtual model is built with Vensim DSS software. The conclusion is that on the long run, the changes of gold price and currency rate have a reverse effect on the Tehran Stock Exchange's index and real estate's price. Considering that the Iran's economy is factor based and is mostly dependent on the oil's price, increasing the price of oil will cause the Tehran Stock Exchange's index and real estate's price to increase on the long run Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
88 - Evaluating The Impact Of Oil dependence and Innovation On The Economic Resilience Using System Dynamics Approach
Farshad Momeni Momeni Hossein Mirzaei Azandaryani mehdi biglari kamiResilience of economy against internal and external shocks is an important concept that has been of interest to economists in the last decade. In this paper, we propose a model based on Schumpeter economic theory using system dynamics analysis approach and also discuss MoreResilience of economy against internal and external shocks is an important concept that has been of interest to economists in the last decade. In this paper, we propose a model based on Schumpeter economic theory using system dynamics analysis approach and also discuss on resilience and vulnerability of economy. Based on the proposed model, vulnerability of Iran’s economy and 5 other countries (i.e. Sweden, USA, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia) is forecasted for next 50 years. Major contributions of this paper can be explained in two aspects: first, the concept of economic resilience, that mostly expressed qualitatively, is explained quantitatively. Second, the concept of economic resilience and system dynamics are combined and the capability of studying different scenarios is provided. Five different scenarios are proposed in this paper and it is found that if the current level of innovation is double increased and decrease 50 percent Oil dependence, the vulnerability risk in Iran’s economy will decrease by 70 percent. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
89 - NONLINEAR CONTROL OF HEAT TRANSFER DYNAMIC USING HOMOTOPY PERTURBATION METHOD (HPM)
Jamal Ghasemi -
Open Access Article
90 - Dynamic analysis of the performance of the iranian banking system in uncertainty condition
Soheila Azadeh Ahmad Aslizadeh Morteza Khakzar bafrueiPurpose: The present study explains a dynamic model for developing the performance of the Iranian banking system.Methodology: first, by examining the country's economic trend, uncertainties affecting the performance of the banking system based on international indicator MorePurpose: The present study explains a dynamic model for developing the performance of the Iranian banking system.Methodology: first, by examining the country's economic trend, uncertainties affecting the performance of the banking system based on international indicators of CAMELS were identified, and the network of uncertainties in the Iranian banking system to determine critical uncertainties using the approach SNA was evaluated. In the next stage, the dynamic model of the banking system performance in uncertainty conditions was designed using the SD based on the data of Bank Saderat Iran, and the model was simulated over a 20-year horizon.Findings: According to the research findings, four strategies of bank assets and costs management, the attraction of financial resources and profitability, bank management empowerment and banking infrastructure development, and a selected mixed strategy were identified and simulated, which includes 1- increase investment in banking infrastructure, 2- Create special mechanisms for collecting receivables, 3- Manage bank costs by the agility of processes and empower human resources, as well as monitor the bank's costs, 4. Increase the efficiency of the appropriate customer validation process, 5. Increase the trust and security of depositors by providing financial transparency reports and effective communication with key stakeholders.Originality / Value: Reforming the structure of the banking system, formulating efficient monetary and financial policies and regulations, and effective supervision of the country's banks can transfer uncertainties to the banks with less severity, and only in this situation can banks develop their performance with long-term planning. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
91 - Providing a Strategy to Improve the Quality of Customer Services in the Supply Chain
Alireza Agha gholizade sayar Mehdi Izadyar Reza Gharaeepour Fatemeh EskandarIn advanced organizations, the decisions and strategies of managers throughout the supply chain require the use ofIn advanced organizations, the decisions and strategies of managers throughout the supply chain require the use of knowledge management. Production of high MoreIn advanced organizations, the decisions and strategies of managers throughout the supply chain require the use ofIn advanced organizations, the decisions and strategies of managers throughout the supply chain require the use of knowledge management. Production of high quality product to meet market demand and delivery in quantity and on time to customers is one of the most important goals of production units. Therefore, the issue of service and delivery of goods to customers is of special importance, according to which the company's strategy in interaction with customers is determined. Therefore, the management of this strategy requires forward-looking decisions and the design of new capacities with a comprehensive and interconnected approach and cannot be achieved through a static approach. Also, knowledge management in different organizations has been adapted by effective use of resources and improving customer service and achieving competitive advantage. In this study, we seek to provide a dynamic model to evaluate the impact of knowledge management on improving customer service in the framework of system thinking. This study has been studied in a petrochemical company over a period of 20 years. In this field, first the main variables are identified and their relationships are formulated in the form of causal loops, then completed by designing the main model in the form of flow accumulation diagram and simulated in Vensim software, which finally presents the proposed strategy at the end of the period. Finally, the amount of customer service increases by 15%, which leads to more demand coverage by 12% in the whole system. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
92 - Analyzing the Elites Emigration and the Impacts of Preventive Policies by Using System Dynamics
seyedhamed mosavi hosein ghodsianThe issue of elite emigration from our country to the developed countries as a social phenomenon is the result of economic, cultural, social and political factors in Iranian society. This phenomenon had harmful impacts on the economic, political and social growth and de MoreThe issue of elite emigration from our country to the developed countries as a social phenomenon is the result of economic, cultural, social and political factors in Iranian society. This phenomenon had harmful impacts on the economic, political and social growth and development processes. Elite emigration has been neglected over the years. Statistics reports show that by each emigration of an elite person from Iran, $ 5 million of the Iran's capital will be lost. Therefore, it is essential to find the motivations of elite emigration and explore the strategies and practical solutions for the elite emigration. Thus, the aim of this study is to analyze a variety of scenarios and their impacts on the rate of emigration. Due to the complexity of the problem and causal relations, feedbacks and causal loops, system dynamics approach was used in this study. The model performed in Vensim software. Results show that the policy of reducing tension in foreign relations has not a significant impact on the rate of elite emigration. In addition, according to the results of proposed policies, it is recommended to the government and policy makers to respect the meritocracy in the scientific, management job appointments as well as improve the job security and employment status of elites. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
93 - Simulation of Enhanced Oil Recovery Technology RoadMapping with System Dynamics Method
Pegah Kiarsi Heydar reza radfar mahmood alborzi abas toloi: The process of interal Research and Development is in order to develope, implement, maintain, promote, and upgrade of the new technology. considering that development of new technology in the process of interal Research and Development leads to increase costs. The co More: The process of interal Research and Development is in order to develope, implement, maintain, promote, and upgrade of the new technology. considering that development of new technology in the process of interal Research and Development leads to increase costs. The costs of Research and Development in the oil industries are enormous and must be mapped to the development for each of the key equipments of a detailed technological path map.However, the formulation and implementation of the road map is associated with variety of risks. Therefore, the limits of the financial resources to invest in research and development in the process of compiling the road map for increasing oil harvest technology in the process of development of oil harvesting technologies are presented as the current research problem, which have been studied by System Dynamics in the Oil Industries Engineering and Construction Group.The key variables and Causal Loop Diagram were identified via expert opinion and data. After that the mathematical relationships of variables were determined according to research background and in approximately two years, a mathematical model of the system was developed using computer simulations in Vensim. The results indicated two types of Damped oscillation and Goal-seeking dynamic behaviors for model variables. Further, the dynamic hypotheses testing indicated that increased technological maturity and education reduces costs while increased technologic complexity increases costs. The best scenario was identified as a combination of highly-mature technology, high complexity, and high education level as it incurred minimum costs. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
94 - Strategic Analysis of Mobile Value Added Services (M-VAS) Market in Iran Using the System Dynamics Approach
Mohammad Ali Valafar naser hamidi mahmood alborzi Seyed Javad Iranban FardDespite the launch of mobile app markets in Iran, these markets have not been able to capture a significant market share under a highly competitive environment. Therefore, it is very important for industry managers to review and improve the acceptance process of these m MoreDespite the launch of mobile app markets in Iran, these markets have not been able to capture a significant market share under a highly competitive environment. Therefore, it is very important for industry managers to review and improve the acceptance process of these markets. After identifying the factors influencing the acceptance and attractiveness of marketplaces, this study examined the network effect by providing a dynamic model based on bass diffusion theory and modeled and simulated the studied market. This was done by presenting dynamic hypotheses, plotting causal loop diagram (CLD), stock-flow diagram (SFD), and entering mathematical equations in Vensim software. Then, after validating and ensuring the correctness of the model's performance, two different policies were implemented in the model. The research findings show that under the pressure of the Play Store, Iranian markets are still forced to improve their services and at the same time try to reduce the competitive distance with it. These marketplaces need to reconfigure their existing resources and core competencies, given the market dynamics and to gain emerging opportunities. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
95 - Modeling And Dynamic Analysis of Factors Affecting Data Quality of University Portal with an Integrated Approach of System Dynamics and Quality Function (Case Study: Amirkabir University of Technology)
Maedeh Alizadeh Mohammad Reza Motadel Navid NezafatiThe purpose of this paper is to provide data quality model of a university portal with an integrated approach of system dynamics and quality function deployment. The present study is applied in terms of descriptive – survey method research. Following paper aims to MoreThe purpose of this paper is to provide data quality model of a university portal with an integrated approach of system dynamics and quality function deployment. The present study is applied in terms of descriptive – survey method research. Following paper aims to provide a model and identify the concept and its dimensions for an academic portal and through using library study methods as well as field methods such as questionnaires, content analysis methods and Fuzzy Delphi method simultaneously, collect the voices of different users regarding data quality and finally, with the formation of four quality house matrices, it led to design requirements. Based on Quality Deployment Function analysis, found out that Extensible Markup Language (XML) could be more proper programming language to achieve flexibility as one of the most important engineering characteristics to fulfill user’s requirements. The important ambiguous issue in this context was how the internal communication between the requirements was; As a result of simulating these relationships, it was found that the way of communication overshadows the whole results. At the time of planning in the field of data quality and presenting a model in this regard, it should be considered that the factors may have conflicting relationships and unilaterally addressing a requirement or characteristic without considering its relationship with other cases could have the opposite result and efforts related to it will be fruitless. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
96 - Designing strategic model of waste reduction in the supply chain : systems dynamics approach
Alireza Agha gholizade sayar Majid Ghaderi rahghi Kamran Rahimi Mehdi IzadyarIn today's world, the economic and social development of societies, due to the scarcity of resources, is highly dependent on the planned and optimal use of resources and facilities. The increasing trend of waste in the supply chain is one of the main challenges of most MoreIn today's world, the economic and social development of societies, due to the scarcity of resources, is highly dependent on the planned and optimal use of resources and facilities. The increasing trend of waste in the supply chain is one of the main challenges of most countries, especially developing countries. Therefore, the optimal use of resources and reducing the amount of waste play a key role in improving the efficiency of organizations. Therefore, in this study, we seek to provide a dynamic strategic model for reducing waste in the supply chain of petroleum products in the framework of systems thinking. This research has been studied in a petrochemical company for a period of 20 years. In the proposed model, using the opinions of experts, first 26 knowledge management variables are refined by fuzzy cognitive mapping methods and the importance of each of them is determined, then using the concepts of systems dynamics, their effect on supply chain variables in the form of cause chart. Finally, according to the flow diagram and the proposed scenarios, at the end of the study period, the amount of waste is reduced by 45%, which leads to a reduction in system costs. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
97 - A Dynamics Approach for Maturity Assessment of Hospital Supply Chain Management
Marla Setiawati Togar Mangihut Simatupang Liane OkdinawatiMaturity Assessment strives for continuous improvement in hospitals. Maturity assessment serves as one of valuable tools for hospitals to diagnose problems within their supply chain management processes and implement targeted solutions to improve overall performance and MoreMaturity Assessment strives for continuous improvement in hospitals. Maturity assessment serves as one of valuable tools for hospitals to diagnose problems within their supply chain management processes and implement targeted solutions to improve overall performance and address challenges effectively and efficiently. Customer satisfaction, inventory management, technology and collaboration are the main problem that needs to be addressed in hospitals. This study aims to understand better the components of various variables in maturity assessment consisting of people, processes, technology, and partners of hospital supply chain management. Hospital Supply Chain Management (HSCM) is a supply chain management that focuses on reducing hospital costs while improving hospital services. This study utilizes qualitative data analysis using content analysis on semi-structured interview transcripts. The variables identified are modelled causal loop diagrams to provide and illustrate the interrelationship of the decision factors. Furthermore, the study found 27 decision factors from the interviews and then modelled them in the causal loop diagram. It showed four dominant factors influencing the maturity assessment in Hospital Supply Chain Management. Those are the number of trainings in the people area, the number of patients in the process area, supply chain integration in the technology area, and inventory management in the partner area. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
98 - Designing a green supply chain management model using a system dynamics
mahnaz khansari Keyvan Shahgholian Somayeh NematiToday, one of the main challenges facing organizations is to find methods for the production cycle that are in accordance with environmental standards. Therefore, using the green supply chain is considered as a suitable method. Paying attention to this philosophy in org MoreToday, one of the main challenges facing organizations is to find methods for the production cycle that are in accordance with environmental standards. Therefore, using the green supply chain is considered as a suitable method. Paying attention to this philosophy in organizations has caused the workforce to be able to think, create and innovate better, and on the other hand, investment has become more targeted and productivity has increased. This research has been done with the aim of providing a model for evaluating green supply chain management and using the system dynamics method. For this purpose, the effective parameters in green supply chain management were identified and the relationship between them and their effect on each other were determined. Then the cause and effect diagram and green supply chain management flow diagram were designed and after validating the model, its simulation was done using Vensim software and in the time horizon ( 1395 - 1405 ). According to the validation of the model, green supply chain management policies were identified and the results were compared and analyzed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
99 - Identifying the cause and effect circles of investing in the sports industry by determining the effect of economic growth
Elnaz Sadeghi dizaj Mohammad Rahim Najafzadeh Jafar Barghi Moghadam َAli Reza Bafandeh ZendehOne of the most important indicators of real development and progress of countries is sports. Considering the gap of a comprehensive model in the organizations of the country and consequently the sports industry, in order to use the potential of investment and planning MoreOne of the most important indicators of real development and progress of countries is sports. Considering the gap of a comprehensive model in the organizations of the country and consequently the sports industry, in order to use the potential of investment and planning to achieve economic growth, there is a need for investigation and research. Therefore, the purpose of this research was to identify the cause and effect circles of investment in the sports industry by determining the effect of economic growth based on the dynamics of the system. And they were used for the analysis based on the systemic approach and the interactions between the components and subsystems of investment in the sports industry. The participants of the research were managers and experts in the field of sports industry, 20 of whom were purposefully selected as samples. Data analysis was done using Vansim software. The results of this research show that the investment system in the sports industry has the main subsystems of commercialization, privatization, infrastructure development, sports tourism and gaps in the market. In fact, these five subsystems are under the policies of the investment system in the sports industry; In other words, the policies of the investment sector in the sports industry act as the input of these subsystems. Also, the cause and effect circles obtained from the multiple subsystems of investment in the sports industry, draw the influencing variables and how they interact with each other and provide as a basis for the solution. Manuscript profile
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