Effect of Climate Change on Land Use and Land Cover in Fars Province: Application of System Dynamics Approach

Subject Areas : Agricultural Economics Research

Sadaf bahmanpouri ¹ (Ph.D. Economics of Natural Resoureces and Environment, Shiraz University)
Mohammad Bakhshoodeh ² (Professor of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University)
Mansoor Zibaei ³ (Professor of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University)

Received: 2021-07-17 Accepted : 2023-09-20 Published : 2023-10-23

Keywords: Climate Change, System Dynamics, Fars province, Land Use and Land Cover,

Abstract :

In this study, we used a system dynamic systemic approach, as a useful tool for analyzing the relationships between all components of a complex system, to study the behavior of the land use and land cover system in Fars Province. Dynamic simulation allows observing the behavior modeling and reaction of a system to various changes over time. The behaviors of key variables (land use and land covers area) were simulated based on the defined scenarios after calibrating the model. The results showed that during the simulation period, the areas of agricultural, urban and unused lands are expected to be uptrend, over a period of 40 years. In contrast, forest cover, rangeland and water areas have had a downward trend in area changes. Thus, standing with the phenomena such as desertification, reduction of land cover and water resources requires proper management and careful planning to use the correct methods of water resources exploitation, avoiding the indiscriminate conversion of natural resource areas into industrial and urban units, restoration of aquatic ecosystems and desertification monitoring systems.

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