Dynamic Modeling of Social System in Iran

Subject Areas : مدیریت

Seyyed Mahdi Alvani ¹ (استاد دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی قزوین، ایران)
Gholam Reza Memarzadeh ² (دانشیار دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران، ایران)
Mohammad Ali Afshar ³ (دانشیار دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران، ایران)
Fahimeh Aghajani ⁴ (دانشجوی دکتری دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، قزوین، ایران (عهده¬دار مکاتبات))

Received: 2012-05-08 Accepted : 2013-02-07 Published : 2013-08-23

Keywords: social system, development, system dynamics,

Abstract :

Management can achieve the long term goals in a system by means of a dynamic framework. This article considers the problem of social development in macro level. Since social development has a dynamic and multidimensional nature, the system dynamics method has been used in this article. In system dynamics approach, sustainability of social system is not increasing or decreasing in a system, moreover, it is not a static goal, making it impossible to achieve it. In this regard, four indicators of social development that is, population means, employment, water, and food are utilized for dynamic evaluation modeling. This model evaluates social development in Iran over the period 1989-2009 and predicts it until 2019. The results indicate there is a relationship between social development components.