Dynamic model to evaluate the water supply problems of green space in Shiraz

Subject Areas : Article frome a thesis

Mohamadhossein Ahmadi ¹ , مهدی ضرغامی ² , یوسف حسن زاده ³

1 - دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
2 - استاد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
3 - استاد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

Received: 2016-07-15 Accepted : 2019-02-27 Published : 2019-02-20

Keywords: Shiraz, System Dynamics, Water resource management, Urban Landscape,

Abstract :

Due to rapid growth of urbanization and limited water resources, the need for effective urban water management is now more crucial than ever. In this paper, by using system dynamics approach, a supply and demand model has been developed. For this purpose, all factors affecting Shiraz city green areas has been modeled and by using that model the future water supply and demand is predicted. Then the current and future effective factors that will influence the system, such as the construction of second pipeline water transfer from the Doroudzan dam have been applied in modeling. Three management scenarios are studied: increasing efficiency of irrigation, completion of Shiraz city wastewater treatment plant and the construction of the Tange Sorkh dam. The results of this research show that the impact of Tange sorkh dam construction has a 5% decrease in shortages but using the treated wastewater has 3, 5, 7 and 9 percent decreases for using 30, 50, 75 and 100 percent of treated water for urban landscape, respectively. Simulation also showed that increasing the irrigation efficiency by 10 and 20 percent has 16 and 41 percent decrease on shortages, respectively. At the end, in order to navigate towards sustainable system, combination of scenarios are considered. These scenarios are: reducing the rate of population growth, decreasing domestic and green space water consumption per capita, increasing irrigation efficiency and using treated wastewater for green space. And finally we propose suggestions for system sustainability.

References:

منابع :

1)        برزگر، ز. 1391. شهرنشینی و تأثیرات آن بر امنیت غذا، آب و انرژی در ایران، نمونه موردی: شهر شیراز. فصلنامه علمی- تخصصی برنامه ریزی منطقه­ای. 2(5): 64-53.

2)        تابش، م،، گوشه، س.، و یزدان پناه، م. 1386. پیش بینی تقاضای کوتاه مدت آب شهر تهران با استفاده از شبکه‌های عصبی مصنوعی. نشریه دانشکده فنی. 41(1): 24-11.

3)        حسینی، س. ا.، و باقری، ع. 1392. مدلسازی پویایی سیستم منابع آب مشهد برای تحلیل استراتژی­های توسعه پایدار. مجله آب و فاضلاب. 24(4): 39-28.

4)        صلوی تبار، ع،، ضرغامی، م.، و ابریشم­چی، ا. 1385. مدل پویایی سیستم در مدیریت آب شهری تهران. مجله آب و فاضلاب. 59(3): 28-12.

5)        روشنگر، ک،، ضرغامی م،، طرلانی آذر، م. 1394. پیش بینی مصرف آب شهری با استفاده از ترکیب الگوریتم‌های تکاملی و تحلیل تبدیل موجک (مطالعه موردی شهر همدان). مجله آب و فاضلاب. 26(4): 120-110.

6)        نظریان، ا،، کریمی، ب.، و روشنی، ا. 1388. ارزیابی توسعه فیزیکی شهر شیراز با تأکید بر عوامل طبیعی. فصلنامه جغرافیایی چشم انداز زاگرس. 1(1): 18-5.

7)       Fagan, J.E., Reutera, M.A. and Langford, K.J.. 2010. Dynamic performance metrics to assess sustainability and cost effectiveness of integrated urban water systems. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 54: 719–736.

8)       Group Studies and Urban Planning Department of the Interior .1990. Urban green spaces, standards and types. Tehran.

9)       Hassanzadeh, E., Alshorbaghy, A., Wheater, H., and Gober, P. 2016. Managing water in complex systems: An integrated water resources model for Saskatchewan, Canada. Environmental Modeling and Software, 58: 12-26.

10)   Hjorth, P., and Bagheri, A. 2006. Navigating towards sustainable development: A system dynamics approach. Futures, 38(1): 74-92.

11)   http://abfa-shiraz.ir/page/

12)   http://www.amar.org.ir/

13)   http://www.eshiraz.ir

14)   Larsen, T.A., and Gujer, M. 1997. The Concept of sustainable urban water management. Wat Sci Tech, 35(9): 3-10.

15)   Ministry of Energy, National Water and Wastewater Engineering Company. 2004. Shiraz water supply and wastewater project report. LAR Consulting Engineers in collaboration with Iran AB Consulting Engineers Volume 1 and 2.

16)   Onder, S. 2010. Water saving opportunities urban green space applications. International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geo Conference SGEM, Bulgaria, Vol. 2: 859-864.

17)   Rehan, R., Knight, M.A., Unger AJA and Haas, C.T. 2013. Development of system dynamics model for financially sustainable management of municipal water main networks. Water Research Journal. 47(20): 7184- 7205.

18)   Stave, K.A. 2003. A system dynamics model to facilitate public understanding of water management options in Las Vegas, Nevada. J. of Environmental Management, 67: 303-313.

19)   Tabesh, M. and Dini, M. 2009. Fuzzy and neuro-fuzzy models for short-term water demand forecasting in Tehran. Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transaction B, Engineering, 33(B1): 61-77.

20)   United Nations. 2014. World urbanization prospects: The 2014 revision, highlights. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.ISBN 978-92-1-151517-6.

21)   United Nations Report. 2012. World Water Development. 2.

22)   Zarghami, M. and Akbariyeh, S. 2012. System dynamics modeling for complex urban water systems; Application to the City of Tabriz, Iran. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 60: 99-106.

23)   Zhang, X.H., Zhang, H.W., Chen, B., Chen, G.Q. and Zhao, X.H. 2008. Water resources planning based on complex system dynamics: A case study of Tianjin City. Communication in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, 13: 2328-2336.