-
Open Access Article
1 - Determining the appropriate mixture of renewable energy sources in order to reduce uncertainty
Amir GhaediIn recent years, the use of renewable energy sources to produce electricity in the power system has grown a lot. Compared to fossil fuels, these resources do not pollute the environment and there is no concern about their depletion. The problem of renewable energy sourc MoreIn recent years, the use of renewable energy sources to produce electricity in the power system has grown a lot. Compared to fossil fuels, these resources do not pollute the environment and there is no concern about their depletion. The problem of renewable energy sources is that their production power is variable due to the changes of these sources. Accordingly, in order to reduce the uncertainty of the production capacity of renewable energy sources, it is tried to use these sources in a combined manner. In this article, a method is introduced to determine the appropriate combination of renewable energy sources in order to reduce the uncertainty of their production power. In this method, the average, standard deviation, and the histogram related to the production power of the hybrid structure are obtained, and based on this, a structure with less uncertainty is determined. The proposed method has been used to determine the appropriate structure of renewable units in Bushehr region. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - Presenting a new model for ATM demand scenario
Alireza Agha Gholizadeh Sayyar Mohamadreza Motadel Alireza Pour ebrahimiIn today's competitive world, the ability to recognize predict customer demand is an important issue for the success of organizations. And since ATMs are one of the most important channels for cash distribution and one of the most fundamental criteria for assessing the MoreIn today's competitive world, the ability to recognize predict customer demand is an important issue for the success of organizations. And since ATMs are one of the most important channels for cash distribution and one of the most fundamental criteria for assessing the level of service to banks,In this paper, the number of referrers to ATM devices is reviewed based on the timing and location of the devices. This article seeks to find a dynamic and functional model for predicting the number of referrers to each ATM depending on the time and location of the device. Hence, 378 ATM machines were used throughout the city of Tehran for a time period of one month, containing 69,418 records. Finally, with the help of clustering of statistical data in spatial and temporal dimensions, this model finally succeeds in learning the pattern in the macro data, and based on the decision tree, the predictor can predict the number of referents to each device, which after the algorithm is presented. In order to improve the quality of banking services and improve the performance of the ATM network, it is proposed to combine the optimal location of ATMs in spatial and temporal dimensions. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Designing a of Human Resource Excellence Model in Iranian Public Sectors using the Fuzzy Delphi Technique
N. Mirsepassi A. Toloie Eshlaghy Gh. Memarzadeh M. PeidaieA literature search failed to identify a preferred definition of organizational excellence. While manyclaim to know its meaning and may indeed profess to be working towards the achievement ofexcellence, few give the same definition. Despite this, the term “excelle MoreA literature search failed to identify a preferred definition of organizational excellence. While manyclaim to know its meaning and may indeed profess to be working towards the achievement ofexcellence, few give the same definition. Despite this, the term “excellence” is widely used within thepublic sector. This problem exists more in the public sector than in other sectors and is more in HRMthan in other organizational departments.In this paper, we develop an approach based on the Fuzzy Delphi Technique (FDT) to model humanresource excellence (HRE) in the Iranian public sector. We efficiently apply the new definition ofexcellence in HRM. The HRE conceptual model is formed based on literature reviews and expertsopinions collected using FDT. The HRE model is formed on four dimensions and 57 criteria and isproposed for HRM pathology and Iranian National awards in public sectors. The proposed model hasbeen efficiently been applied on a large scale in Iran for the evaluation of existing and developing HRcapabilities Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Portfolio Optimization Using Markowitz’s Mean-Semi Variance Method on Tehran Stock Exchange
F. Heibati R. HaddadzadehThis paper presents an alternative to the standard mean-variance efficient frontier model underpinningmodern portfolio theory applications. We present a more practical alternative - A Mean-Semivarianceefficient frontier - that takes into consideration advances in &ldquo MoreThis paper presents an alternative to the standard mean-variance efficient frontier model underpinningmodern portfolio theory applications. We present a more practical alternative - A Mean-Semivarianceefficient frontier - that takes into consideration advances in “Post Modern Portfolio Theory” as it pertains toasset allocation. The implications for advisors and planners are profound:An investor’s minimal acceptable return is a critical determinant of their optimal portfolio;Efficient frontiers need not be continuous, reflecting the realities of market behavior and demonstratedvolatility;This new method for calculating frontiers is a preferred device for developing strategic asset allocations.What is so efficient about the “efficient frontier?” The Markowitz (1952) model is employed to determinethe optimal mix of risky securities. This methodology involves determining what the minimum riskcombination of securities or asset classes is for a given return. Risk, in this context, is defined as the standarddeviation of returns of a composite portfolio. By plotting these risk-return combinations, an “efficientfrontier” is generated (with the “efficient” part being the upper boundary). Is this really the preferred way tolook at risk and use it in portfolio selection? If it is not, then is this frontier really “efficient?”In this paper we have modified the traditional Markowitz paradigm by redefining risk. The definition of riskwe employ in this paper is “Semi-Standard Deviation” instead of “Standard Deviation”. Then we haveconstructed efficient frontier for top fifty securities of Tehran stock exchange using Downside Risk approachor “Mean-Semivariance” method. In this research we achieved more efficient frontier using this method thanthe traditional one. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Analysis of Hydrodynamic Behavior of Windbreaks in the Average Internal Temperature of Semi-Warm and Arid Climates in Kashan with the Aim of Greater Efficiency
Mohammad Ali Karbasfurooshha Fereshteh Habib Hossein ZabihiOne of the ways to achieve a building with higher energy efficiency and an efficient system is to use local architectural experiences. In the meantime, a windbreak is one of the elements used in the past to create comfort in Kashan's hot and dry climates. The interior o MoreOne of the ways to achieve a building with higher energy efficiency and an efficient system is to use local architectural experiences. In the meantime, a windbreak is one of the elements used in the past to create comfort in Kashan's hot and dry climates. The interior of these settlements in this climate aims to greater efficiency of this element by CFD software, Energy Plus, and Open Studio with a descriptive-analytical method and then analyzed the results. It has water spray, and one of the leading causes of temperature drop in these wind deflectors is the proportionality of the dimensions-the air inlet valve to the wind deflector, water temperature, dimensions, and height of the wind deflector column. Iranian indigenous architecture's interaction with the climate is a deep and ancient interaction that has long been using its experiences and techniques to create an architecture with maximum energy savings in Iran's climatic areas. The process of formation of these techniques in the length of time and in order to adapt to the climate while utilizing the natural force in the environment has created a suitable natural space for users. Innovative technology reduces the long-standing concern of architects in saving and optimizing energy consumption in buildings. In the meantime, the windbreak is one of the elements used in the past to create comfort in Kashan's hot and dry climates. They were used to move and cool the air in the building. The primary function of the wind deflectors was to direct the outside air into the building, relative cooling by establishing a flow at work and people living in different cities and places. Research has proven that the wind deflector is a suitable device for natural ventilation of the indoor air to reduce the internal temperature of the building and create thermal comfort for the residents. Traditional windbreaks are correctly designed according to the day's needs and have been widely used in hot and dry areas of Iran. What is certain is that the use of this element in today's world requires its adaptation to today's life. Today's cities and buildings have different faces, and windbreaks are limited. And analyze how it operates in terms of form and function. Comparison of the results of the analysis of wind speed in wind turbines and how the wind is oriented in the interior shows. Due to the low thermal mass of the windbreak walls compared to the room, the temperature fluctuation is always higher than the room. To reduce the room temperature further, the priority is to use a spray windshield over windshield wipers. Especially, windshields with water spray in which most of the room has a temperature of 298 K are approximately equal to 25 degrees Celsius and are in Kashan city's thermal comfort range. One of the main factors in this Temperature drop proportionality of dimensions- air inlet valve to the windshield, water temperature, measurements, and height of the windshield column. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - Assessment of urban resilience dimensions,with using the method average total distances of optimal limites(research on municipality 9 of Mashhad)
Hamid Ahmadzadeh kermani Bahram Aminzadeh GoharriziCities as the most complex human-made manifestations face a wide range of risks due to a wide range of hazards and multiple vulnerabilities.Natural disasters have always been a major challenge in achieving sustainable development of human societies. As a result, ways to MoreCities as the most complex human-made manifestations face a wide range of risks due to a wide range of hazards and multiple vulnerabilities.Natural disasters have always been a major challenge in achieving sustainable development of human societies. As a result, ways to achieve this development have become necessary through vulnerability reduction models. Today, disaster management and sustainable development perspectives and perspectives seek to create resilient societies against natural hazards. Hence, according to many researchers, resilience is one of the most important issues for achieving sustainability. Resilience is a way to strengthen societies by using its capacities, and different definitions, approaches, indicators, and measurement models have been developed. The view that has existed in disaster management and urban management has long been the focus of coping and mitigation. In the meantime, the concept of resilience is a new concept that is used more in the face of unknowns and uncertainties. It can be said that the domain of literature on hazards and disruptions has changed in a paradigm shift from (hazard assessment) to (vulnerability analysis). It can be understood that the system can absorb and manage risks ). The framework for the Hyogo plan was approved by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) on January 22, 2005, which is a positive move in this regard. This research is aimed at: the attempt to explain the components and characteristics of resilient constructivism and to determine the contribution of factors affecting the resilience strengthening, Emphasis on recognition of different levels of resilience of individuals and groups of society, efforts to provide solutions to reduce the natural disasters of earthquakes in urban areas.Considering the study and explanation of the relationship between urban community resilience to reduce the effects of natural disasters, especially earthquakes, in order to better understand the resilience dimensions and strategies for risk reduction policies, the four dimensions of the resiliency approach have been investigated. The purpose of this study was to analyze Indicators and resiliency measures, explanation of different models of resilient measurements, survey of resilience of Mashhad 9th district in accordance with selected indicators in resiliency. 9 area of Mashhad municipality in terms of accumulation of main branch faults Mashhad is of high importance in terms of crisis. Therefore, after analyzing the indices in the field of resonance and measuring these indices in the region and comparing them with the optimum level, the numerical value of the area's resilience was calculated using the average distance of the optimal range. In this The three dimensions of social, economic, and spatial dimensions were studied and the numerical values of the IIF, DSF and URF indices were calculated. Finally, the numerical value of the resilience of the area was 0.89, which shows a rather resilient state. Given the degree of resilience The weaknesses in the area were studied in the indexes and crisis in the economic dimension was strongly observed. At the end, suggestions are also given to maintain and improve desirable indicators and to improve desirable indices. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - ψ -amenability of some Banach-algebras
Mohsen Ziamanesh Behrouz shojaeeIn this paper, we prove that a Banach-algebra A is 𝛙-amenableas Long as matrix Banach-algebra 𝐀 ⊗ 𝐌𝒏 is 𝛙 ⊗ 𝐈-amenable which 𝛙 is ahomomorphism form A into A. Morever, for Banach-algebras A and B, weshow that 𝛙-amenability of A and 𝛗-amenability o MoreIn this paper, we prove that a Banach-algebra A is 𝛙-amenableas Long as matrix Banach-algebra 𝐀 ⊗ 𝐌𝒏 is 𝛙 ⊗ 𝐈-amenable which 𝛙 is ahomomorphism form A into A. Morever, for Banach-algebras A and B, weshow that 𝛙-amenability of A and 𝛗-amenability of B are equivalent with𝛙 ⊗ 𝛗-menability of 𝛉-lau product 𝑨 ×𝜽 𝑩 in which 𝛗 is also ahomomorphism on B and 𝛉 is a character on B.- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - A Computational Method for Fuzzy Arithmetic Operations on Bipolar Fuzzy Numbers and Its Application
Fazlollah Abbasi sahleh shakeriA bipolar fuzzy set is a powerful tool for depicting fuzziness and uncertainty. This model is more flexible and practical as compared to the fuzzy model. We define certain notions, including a bipolar fuzzy number and bipolar fuzzy arithmetic. In this paper we propose t MoreA bipolar fuzzy set is a powerful tool for depicting fuzziness and uncertainty. This model is more flexible and practical as compared to the fuzzy model. We define certain notions, including a bipolar fuzzy number and bipolar fuzzy arithmetic. In this paper we propose the new fuzzy arithmetic operations based on on bipolar fuzzy numbers from [1,2]. We define 2- dipole fuzzy numbers and cutting them. The properties of these propose operations and their fundamental qualities are discussed in detail. Several illustrative examples were given to show the accomplishment and ability of the proposed method. At the end it is shown that the solution of the proposed method in comparison to other methods of solving fuzzy equations are more realistic, that is, they have smaller support. Further, we analyze our new approach to find the solutions of a bipolar fuzzy linear equations. In this paper, in addition to familiarity with bipolar fuzzy number operations based on transmission- average and presenting practical solutions for calculations in specific cases, this problem is identified. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
9 - Chaotic property for non-autonomous iterated function system
Alireza Zamani Bahabadi mona effati Bahman HonaryIn this paper, the new concept of non-autonomous iterated function system is introduced and also shown that non-autonomous iterated function system IFS(f_(1,∞)^0,f_(1,∞)^1) is topologically transitive for the metric space of X whenever the system has average MoreIn this paper, the new concept of non-autonomous iterated function system is introduced and also shown that non-autonomous iterated function system IFS(f_(1,∞)^0,f_(1,∞)^1) is topologically transitive for the metric space of X whenever the system has average shadowing property and its minimal points on X are dense. Moreover, such a system is topologically transitive, whenever, there is a point like z∈U for each open and invariant set U from X so that N(z,U) has a positive upper density. It is also shown that topological transitivity is result of properties of shadowing and chain transitivity. The relation between average shadowing property , topological transitivity and chaotic non-autonomous iterated function system is studied .Moreover, it is also demonstrated that the first two conditions for the definition of chaos results the third condition. The topological mixing of such a system is obtained from shadowing property and chain mixing. Finally, we evaluated that the dynamical system (X, f) has Li-York e chaos under special conditions Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
10 - Evaluation of Model-Based Methods in Estimating Dynamic Functional Connectivity of Brain Regions
M. Behboudi R. Farnoosh M. A. Oghabian H. PezeshkToday, neuroscientists are interested in discovering human brain functions through brain networks. In this regard, the evaluation of dynamic changes in functional connectivity of the brain regions by using functional magnetic resonance imaging data has attracted their a MoreToday, neuroscientists are interested in discovering human brain functions through brain networks. In this regard, the evaluation of dynamic changes in functional connectivity of the brain regions by using functional magnetic resonance imaging data has attracted their attention. In this paper, we focus on two model-based approaches, called the exponential weighted moving average model and the dynamic conditional correlation model, to estimate the dynamic correlation between the two brain regions. Initially, the performance of these two models is evaluated using two new simulations. According to the results, in these simulation studies, the dynamic conditional correlation model has better performance than the exponential weighted moving average model. Therefore, a dynamic conditional correlation model is used to estimate the dynamic functional connectivity of two brain regions (the anterior cingulate cortex and the posterior cingulate cortex) for three Iranian addicted to methamphetamine in a resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging. The dynamic conditional correlation model has a good performance in assessing the dynamic functional connectivity of these addicted to methamphetamine. In addition, the dynamic functional connectivity varies between subjects. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
11 - Clustering with Intelligent Linexk-Means
نرگس Ahmadzadehgolia M.H. Behzadi A. MohammadpourThe intelligent LINEX k-means clustering is a generalization of the k-means clustering so that the number of clusters and their related centroid can be determined while the LINEX loss function is considered as the dissimilarity measure. Therefore, the selection of the c MoreThe intelligent LINEX k-means clustering is a generalization of the k-means clustering so that the number of clusters and their related centroid can be determined while the LINEX loss function is considered as the dissimilarity measure. Therefore, the selection of the centers in each cluster is not randomly. Choosing the LINEX dissimilarity measure helps the researcher to overestimate or underestimate the centers which helps to assign some entities into a special cluster. We check the performance of the algorithm on some real and artificial datasets and evaluate the results according to some internal and external indexes. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
12 - Tarski Number and Configuration Equations
A. YousofzadehThe concept of configuration of groups which is defined in terms of finite partitions and finite strings of elements of the group is presented by Rosenblatt and Willis. To each set of configurations, a finite system of equations known as configuration equations, is asso MoreThe concept of configuration of groups which is defined in terms of finite partitions and finite strings of elements of the group is presented by Rosenblatt and Willis. To each set of configurations, a finite system of equations known as configuration equations, is associated. Rosenblatt and Willis proved that a discrete group G is amenable if and only if every possible instance of its configuration equations admits a normalized solution. In this paper we compare the existence of such solutions for different systems. We prove that if a system of configuration equations has no normalized solution, then every system related to a refinement of the initial partition, has no normalized solution, as well. The Tarski number of a non-amenable group is the smallest number of the pieces of its paradoxical decompositions. In the present paper we also provide a relation between the Tarski numbers of the subgroups of two configuration equivalent groups. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
13 - Portfolio ranking: using finance technology set in DEA models (Case Study: Tehran Stock Exchange)
A. Davtalab R. MehrjooOne of the most important concerns of investors in financial markets is choosing a share or stock portfolio that is optimal in terms of profitability. To this end, there are many ways in which the stock portfolio has been chosen. The optimal portfolio selection is a por MoreOne of the most important concerns of investors in financial markets is choosing a share or stock portfolio that is optimal in terms of profitability. To this end, there are many ways in which the stock portfolio has been chosen. The optimal portfolio selection is a portfolio management goal. In this dissertation, the DEA technique has been used as a new and reliable way to select the stock optimal stock. In this thesis, the risk of different orders, average returns, return variances, higher torque are considered as output variables. It will also be possible to take into account the priorities for increases in risk ignored by DEA in applied studies but discussed in economic theory. Finally, in this research, 278 companies were evaluated in 50 stock portfolios during the 5-year period, which is evaluated by 3 models, one for higher returns, one for lower risk and one for a combination of these two methods has meant greater returns and less risk. Also, baskets number 6 and 8 ranked best in the first, second and third models. . Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - Module Amenability of module dual Banach algebras
M. Khoshhal D. Ebrahimi Bagha O. pourbahri rahpeymaIn this paper we defined the concept of module amenability of Banach algebras and module connes amenability of module dual Banach algebras.Also we assert the concept of module Arens regularity that is different with [1] and investigate the relation between module amenab MoreIn this paper we defined the concept of module amenability of Banach algebras and module connes amenability of module dual Banach algebras.Also we assert the concept of module Arens regularity that is different with [1] and investigate the relation between module amenability of Banach algebras and connes module amenability of module second dual Banach algebras.In the following we studythe relation between module amenability, weak module amenability and module approximate amenability of Banach algebra. The notation of amenability of Banach algebras was introduced by B.Johnsonin [7]. A Banach algebra A is amenable if every bounded derivation from Ainto any dual Banach A-bimodule is inner, equivalently if H(A;X) = 0 for any Banach A-bimodule X, where H(A;X) is the first Hochschild co-homology group of A with coefficient in X. Also, a Banach algebra A isweakly amenable if H(A;A) = 0. Bade, Curtis and Dales introduced the notion of weak amenability on Banach algebras in [4]. They considered this concept only for commutative Banach algebras. After that Johnson defined the weak amenability for arbitrary Banach algebras. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - Extension of Some Common Fixed Point Theorems to Mean Non-expansive Mappings
Shahram Saeidi Jafar BakhandeIn 1969, DeMarr proved that a commuting family of non-expansive mappings on a nonempty convex compact subset of a Banach space has a fixed point. Takahashi extended DeMarr’s theorem to the case of discrete amenable semi-groups. In recent years, considerable resear MoreIn 1969, DeMarr proved that a commuting family of non-expansive mappings on a nonempty convex compact subset of a Banach space has a fixed point. Takahashi extended DeMarr’s theorem to the case of discrete amenable semi-groups. In recent years, considerable research has been devoted to the theory of fixed points as well as common fixed points. In the case of semi-topological semi-groups (that is, a semi-group with a Hausdorff topology such that the multiplication is separately continuous), Lau and Zhang studied DeMarr’s theorem under more general conditions for example in the case of the amenability of the space of almost periodic functions as well as the space of weakly almost periodic functions. In this paper, we study several fixed point properties of the mean non-expansive semi-topological semi-groups acting on nonempty convex weakly compact subsets of a locally convex space as well as give extensions of the results of Lau and Zhang. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
16 - Weak amenability of Beurling algebra free products
Elham Gheisari Akram Yousofzadeh Mohammad Sadegh Asagri‎In this paper, for a discrete group ‎$G=mathbb{Z}‎astmathbb{Z}_n‎‎‎$‎ and a weight function of polynomial‎$‎‎‎omega_‎alpha‎‎$‎,‎ we show that the Burling algebra ‎$‎ell^1(G‎‎, ‎‎&lr More‎In this paper, for a discrete group ‎$G=mathbb{Z}‎astmathbb{Z}_n‎‎‎$‎ and a weight function of polynomial‎$‎‎‎omega_‎alpha‎‎$‎,‎ we show that the Burling algebra ‎$‎ell^1(G‎‎, ‎‎‎omega_‎alpha)‎$‎ is not weakly amenable ‎and ‎dihedral group‎ ‎$D_‎infty=mathbb{Z}_2astmathbb{Z}_2‎‎‎$ ‎is‎ amenable. We also show that for a continuous weight function ‎$‎‎‎ ‎‎omega‎$ ‎under certain conditions ‎on group ‎$‎‎‎‎‎ ‎G‎$‎, if the Burling algebra $‎ell^1(G‎‎, ‎‎‎omega‎)‎$‎ is weakly amenable‎ then ‎$‎‎omega‎‎$‎ is bounded.‎In this paper, for a discrete group ‎$G=mathbb{Z}‎astmathbb{Z}_n‎‎‎$‎ and a weight function of polynomial‎$‎‎‎omega_‎alpha‎‎$‎,‎ we show that the Burling algebra ‎$‎ell^1(G‎‎, ‎‎‎omega_‎alpha)‎$‎ is not weakly amenable ‎and ‎dihedral group‎ ‎$D_‎infty=mathbb{Z}_2astmathbb{Z}_2‎‎‎$ ‎is‎ amenable. We also show that for a continuous weight function ‎$‎‎‎ ‎‎omega‎$ ‎under certain conditions ‎on group ‎$‎‎‎‎‎ ‎G‎$‎, if the Burling algebra $‎ell^1(G‎‎, ‎‎‎omega‎)‎$‎ is weakly amenable‎ then ‎$‎‎omega‎‎$‎ is bounded.‎In this paper, for a discrete group ‎$G=mathbb{Z}‎astmathbb{Z}_n‎‎‎$‎ and a weight function of polynomial‎$‎‎‎omega_‎alpha‎‎$‎,‎ we show that the Burling algebra ‎$‎ell^1(G‎‎, ‎‎‎omega_‎alpha)‎$‎ is not weakly amenable ‎and ‎dihedral group‎ ‎$D_‎infty=mathbb{Z}_2astmathbb{Z}_2‎‎‎$ ‎is‎ amenable. We also show that for a continuous weight function ‎$‎‎‎ ‎‎omega‎$ ‎under certain conditions ‎on group ‎$‎‎‎‎‎ ‎G‎$‎, if the Burling algebra $‎ell^1(G‎‎, ‎‎‎omega‎)‎$‎ is weakly amenable‎ then ‎$‎‎omega‎‎$‎ is bounded. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
17 - Jensen inequality with Applications in Information Theory
hasan barsam Yamin Sayyari sayyed mehrab ramezaniOne of the best-known inequalities which are used in many inequities is Jensen’s inequality. It is a base of some inequality such as the arithmetic mean, harmonic mean inequality also in inequality with respect to entropies including Shannon’s inequality and MoreOne of the best-known inequalities which are used in many inequities is Jensen’s inequality. It is a base of some inequality such as the arithmetic mean, harmonic mean inequality also in inequality with respect to entropies including Shannon’s inequality and information theory. One of the best fundamental inequality in mathematics is Jensen’s inequality. In fact, Jensen's inequality is a base of some inequality such as the arithmetic mean, harmonic mean inequality also in inequality with respect to entropies including Shannon’s inequality, Ky Fan’s inequality and etc. Recently, the generalizations and refinement for the Jensen inequality have been considered by many authors, it has been generalized to applications of information theory and etc. The purpose of this research article is to give a new interesting refinement of Jensen’s inequality form particular finite sequences. Also, we give some applications with respect to this inequality in information theory and other aspect of sciences. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
18 - Weak amenability of tensor products related to homomorphisms
Esmat Ghoraishi Amin MahmoodiWe study the relation between homomorphisms of Banach algebras A and B with that of 𝒜⊗̂ ℬ. Then, we investigate 𝜎− weak amenability of (𝒜⊗̂ ℬ).We study the relation between homomorphisms of Banach algebras A and B with that of 𝒜⊗̂ ℬ. Then, MoreWe study the relation between homomorphisms of Banach algebras A and B with that of 𝒜⊗̂ ℬ. Then, we investigate 𝜎− weak amenability of (𝒜⊗̂ ℬ).We study the relation between homomorphisms of Banach algebras A and B with that of 𝒜⊗̂ ℬ. Then, we investigate 𝜎− weak amenability of (𝒜⊗̂ ℬ).We study the relation between homomorphisms of Banach algebras A and B with that of 𝒜⊗̂ ℬ. Then, we investigate 𝜎− weak amenability of (𝒜⊗̂ ℬ).We study the relation between homomorphisms of Banach algebras A and B with that of 𝒜⊗̂ ℬ. Then, we investigate 𝜎− weak amenability of (𝒜⊗̂ ℬ).We study the relation between homomorphisms of Banach algebras A and B with that of 𝒜⊗̂ ℬ. Then, we investigate 𝜎− weak amenability of (𝒜⊗̂ ℬ).We study the relation between homomorphisms of Banach algebras A and B with that of 𝒜⊗̂ ℬ. Then, we investigate 𝜎− weak amenability of (𝒜⊗̂ ℬ). Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
19 - projective modules in dual Banach algebras
Elham Ilka Amin MahmoodiLet A be a dual Banach algebra, and let φ be a w^*-continuous homomorphism from A to C.In this paper we study the projectivity of C_φ as a A-bimodule as well as a WAP〖(A^*)〗^*-bimodule.Let A be a dual Banach algebra, and let φ be a w^*-continuous homomorphis MoreLet A be a dual Banach algebra, and let φ be a w^*-continuous homomorphism from A to C.In this paper we study the projectivity of C_φ as a A-bimodule as well as a WAP〖(A^*)〗^*-bimodule.Let A be a dual Banach algebra, and let φ be a w^*-continuous homomorphism from A to C.In this paper we study the projectivity of C_φ as a A-bimodule as well as a WAP〖(A^*)〗^*-bimodule.Let A be a dual Banach algebra, and let φ be a w^*-continuous homomorphism from A to C.In this paper we study the projectivity of C_φ as a A-bimodule as well as a WAP〖(A^*)〗^*-bimodule.Let A be a dual Banach algebra, and let φ be a w^*-continuous homomorphism from A to C.In this paper we study the projectivity of C_φ as a A-bimodule as well as a WAP〖(A^*)〗^*-bimodule.Let A be a dual Banach algebra, and let φ be a w^*-continuous homomorphism from A to C.In this paper we study the projectivity of C_φ as a A-bimodule as well as a WAP〖(A^*)〗^*-bimodule. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
20 - Derivative of a function, Generalization of the Caratheodory Definition
Ali ParsianABSTRACT:The current definition of the derivative makes the set of differentiable functions much smaller than the set of continuous functions, such that most of the real single variable functions are not differentiable and the surveying the rate of their growth is not p MoreABSTRACT:The current definition of the derivative makes the set of differentiable functions much smaller than the set of continuous functions, such that most of the real single variable functions are not differentiable and the surveying the rate of their growth is not possible with the available definition. In the present paper, using Caratheodory definition, we extend the set of differentiable functions by introducing a definition for generalized differentiation of a single variable function and its generalized derivative, in such a way that the validity of the basic theorems of this theory such as Rolle's theorem, Cauchy's mean value theorem, mean value theorem and Taylor's theorem would be hold. Finally we give some examples.----------------------------ABSTRACT:The current definition of the derivative makes the set of differentiable functions much smaller than the set of continuous functions, such that most of the real single variable functions are not differentiable and the surveying the rate of their growth is not possible with the available definition. In the present paper, using Caratheodory definition, we extend the set of differentiable functions by introducing a definition for generalized differentiation of a single variable function and its generalized derivative, in such a way that the validity of the basic theorems of this theory such as Rolle's theorem, Cauchy's mean value theorem, mean value theorem and Taylor's theorem would be hold. Finally we give some examples. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
21 - Estimating the half-life of stock price mean reverting: an application of Stochastic Differential Equations
hadi rahmani fazli ahmad molabahramiIn this paper we use stochastic differential equation for estimating the long run equilibrium of the stock prices, the speed of reverting to the mean of the stock prices and the half-life of the stock prices of the selected firms (about 24 active firms) in Tehran Stock MoreIn this paper we use stochastic differential equation for estimating the long run equilibrium of the stock prices, the speed of reverting to the mean of the stock prices and the half-life of the stock prices of the selected firms (about 24 active firms) in Tehran Stock Exchange. We use the stock price data of the selected firms to see if the stock prices of these firms have Unit roots tests. For firms which their stock prices are stationary, without unit roots, we follow an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic differential equation to estimate the half-life of the stock returns of the selected firm. For firms which their stock prices have got the unit root, we use Geometric Brownian Motion for estimation. The results show that most of the studied companies have a reversible behavior to a long-term average and a half-life of stock prices is estimated to be from 3 to 30 weeks. The estimation of the half-life of the stock prices of the selected firms will provide valuable information for the investors and other agents active in the stock markets. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
22 - A REVERSE INEQUALITY FOR SOME GENERALIZED GEOMETRIC MEANS INVOLVING UNITAL POSITIVE LINEAR MAPS
Fatemeh Khosravi Amir ghasem GhazanfariLet $B(H)$ be the $C^*$-algebra of all bounded linear operators on a complex Hilbert spaces $H$. Ando, Li and Mathias introduced a generalized geometric mean for $n$ positive definite operators. This geometric mean $G(A_{1},A_{2},dots ,A_{n})$ of any $n$-tuple of positi MoreLet $B(H)$ be the $C^*$-algebra of all bounded linear operators on a complex Hilbert spaces $H$. Ando, Li and Mathias introduced a generalized geometric mean for $n$ positive definite operators. This geometric mean $G(A_{1},A_{2},dots ,A_{n})$ of any $n$-tuple of positive definite operators $mathbb{A}=(A_1,dots,A_n)$ is defined by induction.(i) $G(A_{1},A_{2})$ =$A_{1}sharp A_{2}$ (ii) Assume that the geometric mean any $(n-1)$-tuple of operators is defined. Let [G ((A_j)_{jneq i })= G(A_{1},A_{2},dots,A_{i-1},A_{i+1},dots,A_{n}), ] and let sequences ${mathbb{A}_{i}^{(r)}} _{r=1}^{infty}$ be $mathbb{A}_{i}^{(1)}= A_{i}$ and $ mathbb{A}_{i}^{(r+1)}=G((mathbb{A}_{j}^{(r)})_{jneq i }) $. If there exists $ lim_{rrightarrowinfty}{mathbb{A}_{i}^{(r)}} $, and it does not depend on $i$. Hence the geometric mean of $n$-operators is defined by begin{equation*} lim_{rrightarrowinfty}{mathbb{A}_{i}^{(r)}} = G((mathbb{A}))=G(A_{1},A_{2},dots,A_{n}) text{ for } i= 1,dots,n. end{equation*} We shall show a reverse inequality for the generalized geometric mean defined by Ando-Li-Mathias for $n$ positive definite operators, as follows: Let $Phi$ be a unital positive linear map on $B(H)$ and $r(A)$ be the spectral radius of $A$, then begin{align*} Phi(G(A_1,dots,A_n))geqleft(frac{2h}{1+h^2}right)^{n-1}G(Phi(A_1),dots,Phi(A_n)), end{align*} where $R(A_i, A_j)=max{r(A_i^{-1}A_j) ,r(A_j^{-1}A_i)}$ and $h=min_{i,j} R(A_i, A_j)$.The Karcher mean, also called the Riemannian mean, Recently it has been used in a diverse variety of settings:diffusion tensors in medical imaging and radar, covariance matrices in statistics, kernels in machine learning andelasticity. We also give a reverse inequality for the weighted power mean of $n$ positive definite operators involving unital positive linear maps. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
23 - Mean Ergodic Weighted Composition Operator 𝝀𝑪𝝋 on Bloch Space
Fakhreddin falahat Zahra KamaliInvestigating the mean ergodicity of composition operators on various Banach Spaces has always been of interest to mathematicians and many authors studied this topics intensively, in many different spaces, such as, the space of all holomorphic functions on unit disk, Ha MoreInvestigating the mean ergodicity of composition operators on various Banach Spaces has always been of interest to mathematicians and many authors studied this topics intensively, in many different spaces, such as, the space of all holomorphic functions on unit disk, Hardy space and Bloch space. In this paper, for a self map of the unit disk, φ and λ∈ℂ, we consider weighted composition operator, (λ𝐶φ)𝑓=λ𝑓𝑜φ , for every 𝑓 in Bloch space and Little Bloch space and inquiry the conditions under which the weighted composition operator 𝜆𝐶𝜑, is mean ergodic or uniformly mean ergodic on the Bloch and Little Bloch Space. In fact, we will show, if |λ|>1,𝜆𝐶𝜑, cannot be power bounded, mean ergodic or uniformly mean ergodic, in contrast, if |λ|<1, 𝜆𝐶𝜑, is always power bounded, mean ergodic or uniformly mean ergodic. In the case, |λ|=1, we will see that it depends directly to the Denjoy-Wolff point of 𝜑. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
24 - A Note on Approximately Amenable Modulo an Ideal of Banach Algebras
H-R. Rahimi A. SoltaniIn this paper, approximately amenable modulo an ideal of Banach algebras, approximatelyamenable modulo an ideal of second dual of Banach algebras are investigated. Also, using theobtained results, it is shown that ()⋆⋆ is approximately amenable modulo ⋆⋆ if an MoreIn this paper, approximately amenable modulo an ideal of Banach algebras, approximatelyamenable modulo an ideal of second dual of Banach algebras are investigated. Also, using theobtained results, it is shown that ()⋆⋆ is approximately amenable modulo ⋆⋆ if and onlyif / is finite where is the induced ideal for the least group congruence on S. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
25 - Long memory in four main cryptocurrencies
gholamreza zomorodian Babak MahboubiIn recent years a new type of tradable assets appeared, generically known as cryptocurrencies. Some of them are widespread and global. This paper examines the volatility of cryptocurrencies, with particular attention to their potential long memory properties. Three diff MoreIn recent years a new type of tradable assets appeared, generically known as cryptocurrencies. Some of them are widespread and global. This paper examines the volatility of cryptocurrencies, with particular attention to their potential long memory properties. Three different long-memory methods (R/S analysis, fractional integration and fractional GARCH extensions) are used to analyze it in the case of the four main cryptocurrencies (BitCoin, Ethereum, LiteCoin and Ripple) over the sample period January 2013– November 2019. Our results are twofold. First, R/S method is prone to detect long memory whereas the findings of ARFIMA and GARCH type models indicate that in the case of two examined cryptocurrencies (BitCoin and Ethereum), long memory exist (there is a positive correlation between its past and future values). Such predictability represents evidence of market inefficiency in their markets: trend trading strategies can be used to generate abnormal profits in these markets. Although our findings show that returns of Litecoin and Ripple don’t have a significant long memory. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
26 - The Comparison of Stock Trading Strategies for Computing of Stock Return in the Short term and Long term Investment
زهرا پورزمانی محمدرضا محمدیUse of proved scientific techniques help to two basic goals in the security andexchange market, Firstly apply of this techniques cause increase of the scale ofproductivity and profitable of the investors , Secondly this issue cause improvement ofthe invest market operat MoreUse of proved scientific techniques help to two basic goals in the security andexchange market, Firstly apply of this techniques cause increase of the scale ofproductivity and profitable of the investors , Secondly this issue cause improvement ofthe invest market operation and propelling the market toward efficiency. By attentionto the following issue, in this text we were dealing to investigate the transactionmethods. In this research we attempt to comparison of various methods for priceforecast in stock market and investigate tow methods, which named buy and hold andmoving market average of the market peripatetic and observe the place of each towmethods and process of predication of price portion, and by how much scale crateprofitability for investors? And then offer the best state to investor .the samplecompanies are through the list of the active companies in Tehran Stock Exchangeduring the period 2001 to 2008. The results declare in the long term investment periodthe average return of buy and hold method is greater than from moving marketaverage method, and also in the period of the short term investment of the buy andhold method is prior to moving market average method. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
27 - Investigating effect of mean residence time on herd behavior on Tehran stock exchange index volatility by Heston model
Zahra ShirazianIn this article investigate the herd behavior of stock prices inTehran stock exchange with the Heston model. Basing on parameter estimation of the Heston model obtained by minimizing the mean square deviation between the theoretical and empirical return distributions, w MoreIn this article investigate the herd behavior of stock prices inTehran stock exchange with the Heston model. Basing on parameter estimation of the Heston model obtained by minimizing the mean square deviation between the theoretical and empirical return distributions, we simulate mean residence time of positive return.Plots of mean residence time of positive return against the amplitude or mean reversion of volatility demonstrate a phenomenon of herd behavior for a positive cross correlation between noise sources of the Heston model. Also, for a negative cross correlation, a phenomenon of herd behavior is observed in plots of mean residence time of positive return (MRTPR) against the long-run variance by increasing amplitude or mean reversion of volatility. From the simulating results of MRTPR, we observe that (i) when MRTPR is regarded as a function of the amplitude of volatility fluctuation c, there is a phenomenon of the herd behavior for a positive cross correlation between two Wiener processes of stock price and volatility (i.e., λ > 0); (ii) when MRTPR is regarded as a function of mean reversion a, there is a phenomenon of the herd behavior for our considered values of b and c under λ > 0; (iii) increasing a or c induces a phenomenon of the herd behavior under λ < 0 when MRTPR is regarded as a function of mean reversion b. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
28 - Evaluation of the Share Price Movement: A Case Study of Insurance Group in Tehran Stock Exchange
Atefeh Zareie Seyed-nezamuddin Makiyan Mehdi HajaminiThe Stock Market is one of the main pillars of the financial market. Increasing the analytical power of capital market investors is one of the factors that play an effective role in the development of such a market. Many investors use technical analysis to make their tr MoreThe Stock Market is one of the main pillars of the financial market. Increasing the analytical power of capital market investors is one of the factors that play an effective role in the development of such a market. Many investors use technical analysis to make their trading decisions. In this study, the efficiency of buying stocks of insurance companies in Tehran Stock Exchange was examined by Technical Analysis which includes Stochastic Oscillator, Exponential Moving Average, and Hull Moving Average. Then, the study compares Technical Analysis with Buy and Hold Method. To do this, the trading positions that created based on daily periods for 14 insurance companies in Tehran Stock Exchange between 2017:3 and 2019:9 have been reviewed and compared with the Buy and Hold Method. Results indicate that the quarterly returns getting by Technical Method are positive in overall, and the number of trades with negative returns is less than the number of trades with positive returns. Similarly, the average return on a trade with a loss has always been lower than the average return with a profit. Moreover, the number of days with negative returns was less than the number of days with positive returns in all insurance companies. Findings show that using Technical Method was more profitable than the Buy and Hold Method in all companies which have been investigated. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
29 - Fuzzy Mean-CVaR Portfolio Selection Based on Credibility Theory
S. Babak Ebrahimi Amirsina Jirofti Matin AbdiThis paper develops a fuzzy portfolio selection problem that minimizes conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and estimates CVaR by fuzzy credibility theory and also calculates expected return by fuzzy credibility mean. Using fuzzy techniques makes the model more precise and MoreThis paper develops a fuzzy portfolio selection problem that minimizes conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and estimates CVaR by fuzzy credibility theory and also calculates expected return by fuzzy credibility mean. Using fuzzy techniques makes the model more precise and accurate due to uncertainty of financial data. The use of CVaR helps investors make better decisions because it indicates the size of loss. This study considers some constraints for model including liquidity, cardinality, minimum and maximum investment proportion. The liquidity constraint is measured by turnover of each asset as a trapezoidal fuzzy number. The liquidity constraint converts to a linear constraint by using fuzzy credibility theory. Using CVaR as a risk measurement and efficient constraints makes the model appropriate and adequate for portfolio selection. Finally, a numerical example is provided by 10 stocks chosen from Tehran Stock Exchange Market in 2015 and it shows the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed model Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
30 - Compare the Efficiency of Technical Analysis Strategies with Buy and Hold Rule for the Stock Purchase in Bullish and Bearish periods
mohsen rezvani aghdam zahra pourzamaniInvestors and investment managers, in the selection and purchase of shares of companies, faced with the decision making process. In the process, they are looking for stock options that have the maximum benefits. In the investment process, succeeding and earring profit, MoreInvestors and investment managers, in the selection and purchase of shares of companies, faced with the decision making process. In the process, they are looking for stock options that have the maximum benefits. In the investment process, succeeding and earring profit, without proper analysis and having knowledge of the stock market situations, is not possible, so each investor should then review and analyze stocks, start to buy and sell them Thus In this study were investigated efficient technical strategies containing exponential moving average (EMA) and relative strength index (RSI) and hybrid method hybrid method EMA&RSI with buy and hold method in order to buy stocks. According to daily and weekly, signals were extracted from 16 investments companies in Tehran Stock Exchange for five years 2000 to 2015 and was compared with buy and hold method. Results showed, although technical strategies were not efficient enough in order to buy stock in extremely bullish periods (2013) this strategy was efficient in equal periods or bearish periods (2014) to buy stock Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
31 - Risk modeling in the stock exchange with the approach of nonlinear Bayesian models-time-varying parameters
Fatemeh Ragh Mahdi Madanchi Zaj Hossein PanahianTraditional models do not have sufficient ability to predict the return on investor portfolio due to changes in the external environment (systematic risk) and the internal environment (non-systematic) and this is mainly due to the identification of the explanatory varia MoreTraditional models do not have sufficient ability to predict the return on investor portfolio due to changes in the external environment (systematic risk) and the internal environment (non-systematic) and this is mainly due to the identification of the explanatory variables and the experimental design of the model.Therefore, the present research, while explaining this issue and in order to adjust the uncertainty problem of the model, by averaging all the models (Bayesian averaging), has determined the effective risks on stock returns in Iran.The present study expresses this failure in identifying explanatory variables and empirical model design. The statistical sample of the research includes 138 listed companies in the period 1390 to 1399.In this study, 62 risks affecting stock returns in the form of 31 indicators in the field of systematic risk and 31 non-systematic indicators entered into nonlinear Bayesian models with time-varying parameters.The results show that among BMA, TVP-DMA, TVP-DMS, BVAR and OLS models, the TVP-DMA model is the most efficient model. According to the TVP-DMA model, 10 non-fragile risks include systematic risks (real GDP growth rate, unofficial market currency, inflation rate, interest rate) non-systematic risks (instantaneous ratio, liabilities, cash flows from operations, return on equity, debt ratio, and price-to-earnings ratio) as the most important risks affecting stock returns. All the mentioned risks, except interest rate and debt ratio, have a positive effect on stock returns. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
32 - Stock portfolio optimization based on the combined model of omega ratio and mean-variance Markowitz based on two-level ensemble machine learning
sanaz faridi Mahdi Madanchi Zaj amir daneshvar shadi shahverdiani fereydoon rahnamaIn this paper, the stock portfolio of active companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange is optimized based on the combined model of omega ratio and mean-variance Markowitz (MVOF). For this purpose, 480 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 13 MoreIn this paper, the stock portfolio of active companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange is optimized based on the combined model of omega ratio and mean-variance Markowitz (MVOF). For this purpose, 480 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 1390 to 1399 were selected and based on the input data, the companies were filtered. Hence a combined method consisting of trading rules optimization method based on technical analysis (6 indicators RSI, ROC, SMA, EMA, WMA and MACD) and two-level collective learning machine (SVM, RF, BN, MLP and KNN) for Data training and purchase signal presentation were addressed. Therefore, 85 companies were selected to optimize the stock portfolio. To teach the data, 85 companies filtered by the combined method were used and the number of different classes with 50 learners was used. The results show that using the OF model compared to the MVF model has the highest stock portfolio returns during the years 1395 to 1399. While the MVF model has the lowest investment risk. As a result, by combining the above models, the stock portfolio return in this method is much higher than other methods. While the investment risk was lower. Therefore, if the MVOF model is used, the return on the stock portfolio will increase and the investment risk in it will decrease. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
33 - پیش بینی نرخ ارز در بازار سرمایه با استفاده از مدل های میانگین متحرک خود رگرسیون انباشته و شبکه عصبی )مطالعه موردی: دلار استرالیا، دلار کانادا، ین ژاپن و پوند انگلستان(
Mohammad Ehsanifar Reza Ehtesham RasiMonetary policy in order to prevent losses arising from changes in exchange rates of disruptive are Always trying to find a suitable method to predict exchange rates. However, multi-dimensional characteristics of the converter makes it is complicated and nonlinear behav MoreMonetary policy in order to prevent losses arising from changes in exchange rates of disruptive are Always trying to find a suitable method to predict exchange rates. However, multi-dimensional characteristics of the converter makes it is complicated and nonlinear behavior. One of the traditional methods of forecasting, time series analysis, which is based on two as sumptions static linearity. Some doubts about the performance of these traditional models have been created One of the alternative methods, artificial neural networks that In some cases are shown a good potential for time series prediction. In this Article , After reviewing the research conducted to clarify the predictive ability of mass moving average models and Artificial Neural Networks to compare The two methods for the prediction of the daily exchange rate has been made in the period from 01.01.1990 till 01.01.2012. The results showed that the neural network approach estimates the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method provides better responses. In this study, MATLAB software and computational tools and data STATGRAPHICS economies of Australia, Canada, Japan and the United Kingdom, and the dollar exchange rate in those countries than in America is using. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
34 - پوشش ریسک با استفاده از قراردادهای آتی سکه بهار آزادی مورد معامله در بورس کالای ایران: رهیافت ضریب جینی بسط یافته به میانگین(MEG)
جاوید بهرامی اکبر میرزاپور بهزاد فکاری -
Open Access Article
35 - Predicting Index of Stock Exchange by Hidden Markov Model and K-Mean Algorithm
Saeid Asgari Naser Yazdani Mohsen Nazem BokaeiStock price prediction is a classic problem that has been analyzed by different tools and models. Stock market trend changes depends on supply and demand rule and other macroeconomic forces in the market circumstance. Non liner and full swing process makes it hard to pr MoreStock price prediction is a classic problem that has been analyzed by different tools and models. Stock market trend changes depends on supply and demand rule and other macroeconomic forces in the market circumstance. Non liner and full swing process makes it hard to predict future stock price. Traditional statistical techniques and models cannot explain seasonal and non-station time series data in stock markets. Hidden markov model has widely used in the way of predicting statistical time series. It extensively has used in such majors as speech recognition and DNA sequencing and also it can be used in order to next stock price prediction. In this study we tried to use discrete hidden markov model to predict next day’s index in Brussels (Euro Next) and answer the question that “which market will get the more accurate prediction by hidden markov model?. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
36 - Developing an uncertain mean-chance model for portfolio optimization using forecasted returns
Hosein Didehkhani Amir Shiri-ghehi Behzad MiranThe purpose of this research is to present a portfolio optimization model within the framework of uncertainty theory. To estimate the return on assets, a prospective approach was used based on expert opinions. Also, a different risk-based approach based on uncertainty ( MoreThe purpose of this research is to present a portfolio optimization model within the framework of uncertainty theory. To estimate the return on assets, a prospective approach was used based on expert opinions. Also, a different risk-based approach based on uncertainty (chance model) was used to model risk. The theory used to model the uncertainty in model parameters is the uncertainty theory. The team of experts involved in this research was required to complete the required information on the projections used, including 30 managers of the portfolio of active investment funds in the Tehran Stock Exchange. In the end, to demonstrate the applicability, the model was designed in Tehran Stock Exchange and according to the nonlinear nature of the model, the hyper bacterial method of the genetic algorithm was used to solve it. Finally, by generating randomized portfolios and comparing them with the optimal portfolio for solving the model, we conclude that the optimized portfolio achieves a higher level of efficiency while delivering better performance. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
37 - The Comparison of Genetic and Weed Algorithms in Portfolio Optimization
Majid Feshari Pooria MazaherifarIn this paper, Genetic and weed algorithms are used to solve constrained mean-semi variance portfolio problem. Then AR model and simple average are compared to predict expected return of stocks. 23 active stocks from June 22, 2014 to June 21, 2016 are used as our sample MoreIn this paper, Genetic and weed algorithms are used to solve constrained mean-semi variance portfolio problem. Then AR model and simple average are compared to predict expected return of stocks. 23 active stocks from June 22, 2014 to June 21, 2016 are used as our sample. The results indicate that, weed algorithm despite its longer time consuming has better performance than Genetic algorithm. And AR (2) model has more accurate prediction than simple average in predicting expected rate of return. Finally, we compare expected and real efficient frontier, the results indicate that, in lower risk, AR model has better prediction accuracy. So in that area, we can allocate our asset with higher certainty Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
38 - Market neutral statistical arbitrage strategy by factor models in Tehran stock exchange
Farimah Mokhatab Rafiei Kamyar Nourbakhshforecasting price movements is a challenging issue. So different statistical arbitrage strategies are devised to trade in exchanges. Some of these strategies are market neutral. Market neutral strategies are neutral to market movements and make profits in any situation. Moreforecasting price movements is a challenging issue. So different statistical arbitrage strategies are devised to trade in exchanges. Some of these strategies are market neutral. Market neutral strategies are neutral to market movements and make profits in any situation. These strategies use long and short positions at the same time and this makes them unusable in exchanges like Tehran stock exchange that only long position is available. Purpose of this paper is devising a market neutral statistical arbitrage strategy which can be used in Tehran stock exchange. In devising this strategy we use principal component analysis to estimate market movements and calculate stocks idiosyncratic movements. To forecasting stocks idiosyncratic movements, which have mean reverting properties, we use Ornstein-uhlenbeck model. The strategy made 35% average annual return by considering transaction cost which is more than Tehran exchange index in the study period. results show this method is a good framework for devising statistical arbitrage strategies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
39 - Study of Moving Averages Indicators Efficiency in Technical Analysis for Forecasting Stock Price in Selected Top Companies Tehran Stock Exchange
سید علی نبوی چاشمی آیت الله حسن زادهThe aim of the study is to answer the following question: which of the predictive indicators used in this study is the best way for predicting stock price, and is considered as the higher credibility for predicting stock price in the Tehran stock exchange? For this reas MoreThe aim of the study is to answer the following question: which of the predictive indicators used in this study is the best way for predicting stock price, and is considered as the higher credibility for predicting stock price in the Tehran stock exchange? For this reason it is used the methods of a simple moving average and Weighted moving average and exponential moving average for symbol periods of 30 days, 60 days and 90 days. And then predicted results are compared with the actual price, and finally, various methods have been evaluated by two different indexes consist of Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Tracer Symbol (TS).The results show that the exponential moving average methods for thirty-days period is entitled the highest credibility for predicting stock price Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
40 - مقایسه استراتژ یهای خرید و فروش سهام در سرمایه گذاری بلند مدت
زهرا پورزمانی فرزانه حیدرپور محمدرضا محمدی -
Open Access Article
41 - Investigation the Effects of Industry's Mean Employment and Mean Capital on Survival of New Firms in East Azarbaijan Province
غفار تاریIn this paper the effects of industry's mean employment and mean capital haveinvestigated on survival of manufacturing firms in east Azerbaijan province. Thedataset of Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade has used for data gathering and anonparametric Cox regression has MoreIn this paper the effects of industry's mean employment and mean capital haveinvestigated on survival of manufacturing firms in east Azerbaijan province. Thedataset of Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade has used for data gathering and anonparametric Cox regression has used for data analyzing. The results of thisstudy shows that there is a negative meaningful relationship between industry'smean capital and firms survival, but the industry's mean employment has nomeaningful effect on survival rate of new firms. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
42 - The Seasons Effect on the Total Stock Prices for 50 Active Companies in Tehran Stoch Exchange
Zohre HajihaThis research is on a new field of investment management titledbehavioral finance. The research is about one of the anomalies of theinvestment market named “Visceral inferences “, that proposes there aresome differences and anomalies in the basic variables i MoreThis research is on a new field of investment management titledbehavioral finance. The research is about one of the anomalies of theinvestment market named “Visceral inferences “, that proposes there aresome differences and anomalies in the basic variables in the market likeshare prices ,in different seasons .therefore, investors can obtainabnormal return in certain seasons. In this study total share prices for 50active companies produced by TSE are examined for the period of 1382to 1386 to compare the reasons if there are any differences betweenprices in any season.The results show significant differences between prices of 50 activecompanies in Tehran Stock Exchange for spring and atom and in theatom average of prices are higher than other seasons . Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
43 - Proposing an optimal model for stock selection based on the momentum trading strategy
Ali Safari Mohammad AshnaInvestors are always looking to achieve and use strategies to gain abnormal returns and to beat the market. In this regard, the use of quantitative models in recent years has attracted the attention of many investors. So far, several studies have examined the profitabil MoreInvestors are always looking to achieve and use strategies to gain abnormal returns and to beat the market. In this regard, the use of quantitative models in recent years has attracted the attention of many investors. So far, several studies have examined the profitability of Momentum Trading Strategies, but few studies have been conducted in the field of stock selection based on the price momentum strategy, taking into account the relevant risk. The present study, considering changes in price and risk, propose a new model for stock selection based on the momentum strategy. The results show that there is a significant difference between the optimal portfolio returns resulting from the selection of the stock using the proposed model and the market portfolio returns (Tehran Exchange Price Index), and the optimized portfolio has a higher returns at times 3, 6, 9 and 12 monthly compared to the market portfolio. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
44 - نحوه اثرگذاری مهمترین متغیرهای مؤثر بر ساز و کار انتقال سیاست پولی در اقتصاد ایران با رویکرد الگوهای خودرگرسیون برداری تعمیم یافته پارامتر متغیر زمان
مجید رحیمی کامران ندری مهدی یزدانی -
Open Access Article
45 - Proposing a synthetic approach (FARIMA) by employing ARIMA and fuzzy regression methods in order to forecast crude oil price
قدرت الله امام وردی مریم شهابی طبریThe ARIMA model is a precise forecasting model for short time periods, but the limitation of a large amount of historical data is required. However, in our society, due to uncertainty and rapid development of new technology, we usually have to forecast future situations MoreThe ARIMA model is a precise forecasting model for short time periods, but the limitation of a large amount of historical data is required. However, in our society, due to uncertainty and rapid development of new technology, we usually have to forecast future situations using little data in a short span of time. The historical data must be less than what the ARIMA model employs which limits its application. The fuzzy regression is able to forecast model which is suitable for the uncertain condition and with little attainable historical data. But the results of this model cannot be encouraging because the spread is wide in some cases. The researchers do try to combine the advantages of the fuzzy regression and ARIMA models to formulate the FARIMA model and to overcome the limitations of the fuzzy regression and ARIMA model. Therefore, in this study, a synthetic fuzzy auto regressive integrated moving average (FARIMA) is employed to forecast crude oil price. The findings show that the proposed method can get more satisfactory results. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
46 - پیشبینی بازدهی شاخص صنعت پتروشیمی در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران با استفاده از مدلهای ARIMA و ARFIMA
محسن اشراقی فرهاد غفاری تیمور محمدی -
Open Access Article
47 - برآورد اثر بازگشتی مستقیم بهبود کارایی مصرف گاز در بخش خانگی ایران
مریم عباسی عباس امبنی فرد -
Open Access Article
48 - The Examination of Economic Value Added Profitability on Evalution of Firms Market Risk in Iran
Farzaneh Heidarpoor Mehdi NayebIn this article, has been tried to study the relation between two important objects in accounting and economic, “Economic Value Added and Market Risk”. Present paper is provided to confirm or declaring this theory that whether there is any relation between E MoreIn this article, has been tried to study the relation between two important objects in accounting and economic, “Economic Value Added and Market Risk”. Present paper is provided to confirm or declaring this theory that whether there is any relation between EVA and β among firms in Tehran Stock Exchange or not. To examine this hypothesis, 65 firms have been selected from the companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during 1380-1384 by using a statistic method, named Cochran. After calculating research's variables (by using financial statements information and investing management software) and by using Pierson correlation analysis method it became clear that there is moderate reverse relation between EVA & β in 1380 and 1382, very weak and reverse in 1381 and very weak and direct in 1383-1384. In other words this research shows that there’s no strong relation between EVA & β in the examined period Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
49 - Appraising Accrued & Real-Based earning management to achieve industry Average Profitability
Shima hoseinzadeh Azita JahanshadIn order to materiality of accounting earnings in management compensation and turnover, management performance evaluation this paper helps some papers on relative industry average Profitability as a measure of earnings .This measure is specified out of company and contr MoreIn order to materiality of accounting earnings in management compensation and turnover, management performance evaluation this paper helps some papers on relative industry average Profitability as a measure of earnings .This measure is specified out of company and control. It is a movable goal that depends on profitability of other companies in the same industry. In addition managers are likely to have strong incentives to maintain earnings in desirable level and to achieve industry-average profitability but sometimes manage earnings by accrual & real-based earnings management This research is to measure accrual & real-based earnings management in order to achieve industry average profitability by two hypothesis .After considering the parameters on listed Tehran Stock Exchange, a total of 186 companies were screened and selected. The hypothesis testing method is based on “Panel data method. Due to the result, A direct and significant relationship exists between “achievement of industry profitability average and “accrual & real earnings Management” of the companies. In fact, companies engage accrual & real earnings management to achieve industry profitability Average Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
50 - Providing a neural network model to predict the profits of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and comparing its accuracy with HDZ and ARIMA models
masoud asadi seyedmozaffar mirbargkar Ebrahim ChiraniProfit forecasting is an important criterion for companies and companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange must be very careful in forecasting their profits. This study aims to provide a neural network model to predict the profits of companies listed on the Tehran Sto MoreProfit forecasting is an important criterion for companies and companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange must be very careful in forecasting their profits. This study aims to provide a neural network model to predict the profits of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and compare its accuracy with ARIMA and HDZ models. The research method is an applied research in terms of purpose, an inductive research in terms of logic and a quantitative research in terms of data nature. In order to collect data, the basic financial statements of companies in the period 1398-1393 were used. In this study, neural network method was used to predict corporate profits and two models, ARIMA and HDZ, were evaluated. The results show that the rate of data convergence and regression in the first phase and in the HDZ method equal to 0.79087, in the second phase, in the ARIMA method, it is equal to 0.79184, and in the artificial neural network method, it is equal to 0.79464, which has a higher degree of convergence and regression coefficient. Based on the results, it can be seen that the designed neural network has the ability to predict stock price trends using general and industry indicators, and this, in addition to confirming the neural network's ability to predict financial areas and profitability it also confirms strategy of the price forecast on the Tehran Stock Exchange.‏ ‏‏ Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
51 - Using fractal models for quantifying soil structure and comparison with classical methods
sepideh mofidi مهناز اسکندری ابراهیم پذیرا مهدی هماییSoil structure is of great importance from both crop production and water resources management point of views. Since soil structure is often expressed qualitatively, the so-called fractal geometry, as a novel method, can be used to describe the soil structure in a quant MoreSoil structure is of great importance from both crop production and water resources management point of views. Since soil structure is often expressed qualitatively, the so-called fractal geometry, as a novel method, can be used to describe the soil structure in a quantitative manner. Using fractal concept and its comparison with the classical aggregate stability methods can assist to better understanding of soil structure. This research was aimed to quantitatively assess the soil aggregate stability by using some fractal and classical models. To attain this purpose, a number 30 soil samples were collected from topsoil of an agricultural area. Then, the mean weight diameter MWD and geometric mean diameter GMD of soil samples were determined by using wet and dry sieving method. The fractal dimensions of soil samples were determined for four fractal models including the number-size and mass-size of Rieu and Sposito, number-size of Mandelbrot, and mass-size of Tyler and Wheatcraft. Results indicated that the range of fractal dimensions for mass-size model of Rieu and Sposito in dry condition varies from 2.86 to 2.92 and in wet condition from 2.90 to 2.99., this range for Tyler and Wheatcraft model was 2.52 to 2.78 and 2.24 to 2.55, for dry and wet conditions, respectively. Results further showed that for the number-size model of Rieu and Sposito the fractal dimension varied from 2.77 to 3.59 in the dry and from 2.35 to 3.18 in wet conditions. These ranges for Mandelbrot model were obtained to be 2.89 to 3.72 and 2.21 to 3.22 for the dry and wet sieves, respectively. The largest standard deviation was obtained for MWD, while the lowest belonged to the mass-size model of Rieu and Sposito. The obtained results further indicated that by increasing the fractal dimension, aggregate stability decreases and aggregate instability tend to increase. It can be then concluded that by using fractal dimensions one can more precisely describe the aggregate stability compares to the classical methods. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
52 - Analysis of long-term changes in temperature over iran using the cru ts dataset
هادی رمضانی Behnam Ababaei Abbas KavianiStudy of climate change helps in the management of water resources and agricultural production. Temperature increase is one of the most definite aspects of climate change. Limited number of weather stations and the quality and duration of records of weather variables ar MoreStudy of climate change helps in the management of water resources and agricultural production. Temperature increase is one of the most definite aspects of climate change. Limited number of weather stations and the quality and duration of records of weather variables are among the most important limiting factors in climate change studies. Application of gridded regional/global datasets is a promising option to overcome these limitations. In this study, temporal trends in annual, seasonal and monthly averages of daily minimum, mean and maximum temperatures were analysed using the data obtained from the CRU TS 4.01 gridded dataset and the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. The results show that over 1987-2016 (second period), long-term national annual average of daily mean temperature has increased by 0.4-1.2 °C across the country as compared to 1957-1986 (first period). Over the last here decades, temporal trend in annual average daily mean temperature was estimated at 0.39 °C.dec-1 (1.17 °C increase in 30 years). The observed increase in daily minimum temperature (1.23 °C in 30 years) over the second period was larger than the increase observed in daily mean temperature. Analysis of temporal trends in seasonal averages reveals that winter and spring, especially in the west and northwest, experienced the strongest positive trends over the last three decades. The results of this study confirm the occurrence of significant temperature changes in winter, spring and summer, which are important to the country’s agriculture sector. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
53 - Short-Term Effects of Mushroom Substrate Compost on Penetration Resistance, Aggregate Size Distribution and Their Stability in Soils with Different Textures
Chiman Mahdizadeh Hossein BayatBackground and objectives: Adding organic matter to the soil is an important method to solve the problem of compaction and consequently penetration resistance and fertility reduction. Mushroom substrate compost (MSC) has many properties that are required for growing org MoreBackground and objectives: Adding organic matter to the soil is an important method to solve the problem of compaction and consequently penetration resistance and fertility reduction. Mushroom substrate compost (MSC) has many properties that are required for growing organic crops and environmental management. Considering that the ingredients of mushroom substrate compost (including heavy soil, light soil, root soil, wheat straw and stubble, limestone and chicken manure) are different from other types of organic materials, it is necessary to carry out new research to investigate its effect on the physico-chemical properties of the soil. Although different textures behave differently but, the effect of MSC on the penetration resistance and aggregates size distribution in different soils, has not been studied, so far. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the short-term effect of MSC on the penetration resistance, mean weight diameter of aggregates, aggregates size distribution and organic matter content in three soil types. Materials and methods: A factorial experiment was conducted in a completely randomized design with three replications. Factors consist Soil texture at three levels (sandy loam, loam and clay) was the first factor, and MSC at three levels (0, 3 and 6% W/W) was the second factor. After treatment of the soils, samples were then incubated for 120 days, and they were saturated and dried with urban water, regularly, once a month (saturated from above), during this period. At the end of the incubation period, disturbed and undisturbed soil samples were taken by 5 cm in diameter and 4.5 cm in height steal cylinders. The penetration resistance was measured by a micro-penetrometer on the core samples at the matric suction of 0.3 bar. Organic matter, mean weight diameter of aggregates and aggregates size distribution were measured. Results: The results showed that the use of 6% level mushroom substrate compost in the sandy loam soil caused a decrease in the penetration resistance compared to the level of 3% and the control, due to the interaction between the compounds in the compost and the creation of stable soil aggregates. Also, the results showed that highest amount of organic matter and mean weight diameter of aggregates at 6% level of MSC was found in loam texture. Also, the order of the mass of aggregates in classes 4-8 and 2-4 mm, was in loam> sandy loam> clay, with significant differences between the textures. Application of MSC at 3 and 6% levels in the loam texture significantly increased the mass of aggregates of 0.25 – 0.5 and 0.5-1 mm in comparison with control. These aggregates did not show significant differences in sandy loam and clay soils at different application levels of the MSC. Organic matter, mean weight diameter of aggregates, mass of aggregates of 0.5 to 1, and 0.25 to 0.5 mm increased in the range of 27 to 66%, 16 to 34.5%, 4 to 117.5% and 4 to 170%, respectively, by increasing MSC application levels at different soils. Conclusion: This compost is different from other modifiers and can have different effective mechanisms in different textures. The simultaneous addition of lime, clay and organic matter (through compost) to soils with different textures causes cation exchange reactions in the soil. Lime as one of the main additives that has the ability to improve the behavior of fine-grained soils has been noticed for a long time. In this way, in clay and loam soils, the interaction between lime and clay with organic matter plays an important role as soil accumulation factors by forming cationic bridges. The use of lime and gypsum directly improve soil resistance. Therefore, the use of mushroom substrate compost in agricultural lands is useful for improving the soil structure. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
54 - Three years effect of iron and magnesium nano-particles on the stability of aggregates and some soil chemical properties
Elahe Daraei Hossein Bayat Pouya ZamaniLittle is known about the long term effects of nanoparticles on soil properties. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate the three years effects of nanoparticles on aggregate stability and some of the soil chemical properties. Different amounts (1, 3 a MoreLittle is known about the long term effects of nanoparticles on soil properties. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate the three years effects of nanoparticles on aggregate stability and some of the soil chemical properties. Different amounts (1, 3 and 5 percentage by weight) of two types of nanoparticle of metal oxides, MgO and Fe3O4 were mixed with a loamy soil in three replications and their possible effects on different properties of the soil after three years were investigated. The results showed that application of nanoparticles, increased the pH of the soil from 7.7 in the control to 8.1- 9.3 and the electrical conductivity from 0.31 in the control to 0.34 -0.56 dSm-1, due to the increase in the alkali cations. The percentage of calcium carbonate increased from 19.75% in the control to 20.5-22.7% due to the accumulation of nanoparticles in the soil, with the highest increase in three variables with 5% magnesium nano oxide. 3% nano iron oxide significantly increased the cation exchange capacity from 23.50 in the control to 24.28 cmolc/kgsoil. Also the nanoparticles increased the mean weight diameter, due to their high specific surface area, with the greater effect of magnesium nano oxide (increased from 33 to 1242 percentage compared to the control) than iron nano oxide (increased from 97 to 173 percentage compared to the control). In general, the results of this study showed that, nanoparticles with specific physico-chemical properties can affect some properties of soil. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
55 - The effect of type, particle size and amount of biochar on some physical and mechanical properties of calcareous soil
Hassan Osooli Ahmad Karimi Hossein shirani Sayyed Hassan TabatabaeiRecently, biochar has been considered as a soil conditioner. In research, the effect of the type and amount of biochar on soil properties has been emphasized. This field study was conducted to investigate the combined effect of type, amount and size of biochar particles MoreRecently, biochar has been considered as a soil conditioner. In research, the effect of the type and amount of biochar on soil properties has been emphasized. This field study was conducted to investigate the combined effect of type, amount and size of biochar particles on the total porosity (TP), penetration resistance (PR), mean weight diameter of aggregates (MWD) in a sandy loam texture. Factorial experiment was performed as a randomized complete block design with three factors of type, amount and biochar particle size in three replications. Wheat straw, vermicompost and apricot firewood biochard were added to the soil in 0.5, 1.5 and 3% and particle sizes of 0.5, 0.5-1 and 1-2 mm. All three biochar increased TP significantly and decreased PR significantly compared to control. Biochar type had the largest contribution in TP and PR changes. The highest TP was obtained in the wheat straw biochar treatment with 3% and particle size of 1-2 mm. The greatest decrease in PR was observed in wheat straw biochar with a value of 3% and a particle size of 0.5-1 mm. Interaction of type, amount and size of biochar particles had the largest contribution to MWD change. The largest MWD (1.22 mm) was observed in wheat straw biochar with biochar amount of 0.5% and particle size of 0.5 mm. The results showed that the amount and size of biochar particles had different effects on soil properties depending on the type of biochar. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
56 - The Effect of Changing Land Use of Almond Orchards in Saman Plain of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province to Agricultural Lands on Some Physical and Chemical Indicators of Soil Quality
Kkamran ParvanakBackground and Aim: In recent years, some farmers in the plains of Saman in the province of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari have changed the use of almond orchards in this area to agricultural land and pastures in order to provide food and fodder. Since these activities are m MoreBackground and Aim: In recent years, some farmers in the plains of Saman in the province of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari have changed the use of almond orchards in this area to agricultural land and pastures in order to provide food and fodder. Since these activities are mostly carried out without sufficient knowledge of the soil environment, there can be a serious threat to reduce soil quality. Therefore, studies on the effect of different managements on different soil characteristics and in the direction of a sustainable soil resource are very important. In this research, the effect of land use change in these areas on some physical and chemical indicators of soil quality was investigated.Methods:In order to investigate the effect of land use change on some physical and chemical indicators of the soil quality of three land use systems comprising a permanent almond orchard, permanent pasture and almond orchard converted to land were selected in the plain of Saman. 15 samples of soil (45 samples in total) were taken from 0 to 30 cm in the form of networks (30 x 30 meters) in each of the three land use systems considered. Some physical and chemical parameters of studied soil samples measured by standard methods.After collecting and saving data in Excel, a one-side analysis of variance (ANOVA) was performed on using the SPSS18 software and the comparison of the means was also carried out on the basis of the LSD test at a probability level of 1%.Results:The results of analysis of variance data showed that changing land use (changing of almond orchards to agricultural land) had significant effect on the indeces examined physical and chemical of at 0.01 level. The Land use change did not change the surface soil texture of the study areas. The soil texture of all three-study system was almost the same (clay loam inclined to sandy clay loam). According to the findings of the mean comparison, when almond orchards were converted to agricultural land, there was a significant reduction in total porosity, mean weighted diameter of soil aggregates (MWD), base infiltration rate, and soil organic carbon by 12%, 56%, 50%, and 54%, respectively. Conversely, there was a notable increase of 10%, 5%, 44%, and 18% in bulk density, pH, electrical conductivity, and soil lime percentage at a significance level of 0.01 (pr<0.01).In this study, substituting improved pasture plants with land grazed pasture significantly augmented the average of soil organic carbon, total porosity, solidity of soil aggregates (MWD) and base infiltration rate by 48%, 14%, 69%, and 40%, respectively, as compared to agricultural land at a significance level of 0.01 (pr<0.01). However, no significant difference was observed at a significance level of 0.01 (pr>0.01) between almond orchard and pasture land concerning the evaluated indicators.Conclusion:Overall, the parameters analyzed indicate that organic carbon, mean weighted diameter of soil aggregates (MWD), and bulk density are reliable indicators of soil quality in the study area. The average values of these indicators provide an optimal alternative for management and tillage practices in various land uses. Moreover, due to the delicate and vulnerable ecosystems of Saman Plain, it is recommended to avoid converting garden lands (such as almond orchards) into agricultural lands within the study area. This approach will help prevent soil erosion in one of the most sensitive areas of the country. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
57 - Determining Hydrological Drought Characteristics Using Severity-Duration-Frequency Curves and Flow Thresholds Levels in Ardabil Province Rivers
Hamed Amini Abazar EsmaliOuri Raoof Mostafazadeh Mearaj Sharari Mohsen ZabihiBackground and Aim: Drought is a global phenomenon that can occur anywhere and cause significant damage to humans and natural ecosystems. Therefore, the issue of hydrological drought and reduction of river flow in Ardabil province is also an important issue that require MoreBackground and Aim: Drought is a global phenomenon that can occur anywhere and cause significant damage to humans and natural ecosystems. Therefore, the issue of hydrological drought and reduction of river flow in Ardabil province is also an important issue that requires a comprehensive study.Method: In this study, hydrological drought characteristics are using Severity-Duration-Frequency (SDF) curves considering four different threshold levels (constant, annual average, seasonal, and environmental flow) in 33 hydrometric stations in Ardabil province. The severities of drought events are calculated using Easy-Fit software in different return periods. In this regard, drought magnitude-duration-frequency curves are calculated and based on that, the values of drought events in different return periods are calculated and analyzed.Results: The highest drought event is determined for constant, seasonal, yearly, E-flow threshold levels in Samina, Mashiran, Booran, and Samian stations, respectively. Also, the lowest occurrence of drought is associated with the Vildaragh station. The majority of drought events in all four aforementioned thresholds are mostly observed in shorter durations, especially within one-month periods. The Jonson_SB and General Extreme Value distributions were the most suitable statistical distributions. The highest intensity of drought increases with longer return periods associated with the average annual threshold level, and the lowest intensity of hydrological drought is linked to the threshold of environmental flow. The SDF curves for all stations demonstrate an increasing trend, indicating that with prolonged hydrological drought duration in all studied thresholds, the severity of hydrological drought occurrences also increases. The greatest intensity of hydrological drought is sequentially related to the annual threshold, followed by the seasonal threshold and the fixed threshold, with the threshold of environmental flow being the lowest and least. Consequently, for shorter return periods, the fixed threshold indicates greater intensity or magnitude compared to the seasonal threshold in all four stations, and for longer return periods, the seasonal threshold demonstrates higher intensity of drought events compared to the fixed threshold.Conclusion: Furthermore, it can be concluded that the magnitude of hydrological drought at a fixed threshold shows less variability in all four selected stations compared to the other thresholds. It should be noted that in defining drought based on fixed, annual, and seasonal thresholds, events will have a higher number and greater intensity compared to the environmental flow threshold. The spatial changes in drought intensity are depicted on the map, indicating that most droughts have occurred in stations located in the northern and north-western regions (Borran and Dostbiglou). Separating the effects of human and climatic factors in drought assessment is a suggestion from this study that could be considered in future research. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
58 - Investigation of Relation between Meteorological and Hydrological Drought in Sistan Plain
Artemis Roodari Farzad Hassanpour Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh Majid DelavarBackground and Objective: Drought is a natural and repeatable disasterwhich affects all climates. Because of the intrinsically dry climate and low precipitation in Sistan plain, the main water resources are surface water originated from a neighboring country. This study MoreBackground and Objective: Drought is a natural and repeatable disasterwhich affects all climates. Because of the intrinsically dry climate and low precipitation in Sistan plain, the main water resources are surface water originated from a neighboring country. This study investigates the relationship between meteorological and hydrological drought in Sistan plain. Method: At first, meteorological and hydrological drought were investigated by indices including moving average, SPI and SDI in Sistan plain. Moreover, the relationship between them was evaluated for 45 years. Findings: Results show that indices of meteorological and hydrological droughts do not match with each other in the entire of the study period, but there is a significant relationship between them during dry years. It was also observed that a drought period started in 1999 and continued until 2012. Discussion and Conclusion: Therefore, due to low volume and high coefficient of variations of rainfall and vital role of surface flows in the supply of water in the plain, hydrological drought shows conditions of drought is better than the meteorological drought in Sistan plain. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
59 - 3
Reza Arjmandi Abdolreza Karbassi Roxana Moogouie -
Open Access Article
60 - The study of temperature increases effects due to global climate change on the Mean Sea Level (MSL) in the north coasts of Persian Gulf (Hormozgan province)
Azam Jafari Masoud Torabi Azad Shahab SohrabiBackground and Objective:: One of the probable results of global warming is rise of free seas level. Scientists believe the increase of greenhouse gases (earth temperature controller) is the reason of this global warming and by using satellite measurements, have forecas MoreBackground and Objective:: One of the probable results of global warming is rise of free seas level. Scientists believe the increase of greenhouse gases (earth temperature controller) is the reason of this global warming and by using satellite measurements, have forecasted averagely 1-2 mm for increase of free seas level. Methods: This research by collecting and analyzing long term data of annual mean of global temperature (Gtemp), annual mean of Hormozgan province temperature (Temp), annual mean of sea surface temperature (SST) and also annual mean sea level (MSL) related to these coasts, at first compares the significance of their changes in 5 years groupings during recent 20 years with a long term group of each variable as control, by using Duncan test, then considering being significant the increasing trend of mean of recent years groups, derives the regression equation between first three variables (Gtemp, Temp and SST) as independent variables with the last variable (MSL) as dependent variable using multi- variable regression, studies the quality and quantity of influence of each one of them on MSL and by this mean, propounds the necessary predicts in this regard. Findings and Conclusion: The results of this study show the increasing trend of annual mean of the quantities of experimental groups concluded to 2008 (namely recent years) in each of four mentioned variables has had significant difference with groups before them (during recent 20 years) and also with control group (long term mean of each one of the groups). Moreover, three variables including Gtemp, Temp and SST in multi-variable regression for calculating MSL have coefficients of 4.45, 1.713 and 0.798 respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
61 - Two-objective optimization of petrochemical portfolio with Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm (SPEA2) by different approaches in portfolio selection
Arezou Karimi Fatemeh ZakipourThe issue of choosing a portfolio is a multi-objective issue; Therefore, the need to know the methods of solving portfolio selection models is of great importance. Ultra-innovative algorithms are new ideas that were introduced in this regard. The multi-objective SPEA2 a MoreThe issue of choosing a portfolio is a multi-objective issue; Therefore, the need to know the methods of solving portfolio selection models is of great importance. Ultra-innovative algorithms are new ideas that were introduced in this regard. The multi-objective SPEA2 algorithm is one of the algorithms that solves the portfolio optimization problem. The purpose of this study is to use the SPEA2 multi-objective algorithm to achieve the desired combination of petrochemical companies in the petrochemical portfolio. The objective functions of the problem under study include the two objectives of maximizing returns and minimizing risk. The statistical sample includes data of 900 days of 12 petrochemical companies allowed to operate from 1/12/94 to 12/12/98, which by transferring this data to MATLAB software, the logarithmic return each stock is calculated and is the input of SPEA2 algorithm. Then the SPEA2 algorithm is implemented for each of the models of Mean-Variance, Mean-Semi Variance, Mean-Absolute Deviation, Mean- Conditional Value at Risk and the weight of each stock and risk and return of each portfolio are calculated. Then, using SPSS software, the mean difference between risk and return of the models was tested. The results show that the returns obtained by SPEA2 algorithm under different risk models are not statistically significant; However, the portfolio risk created by the SPEA2 algorithm under the Conditional Value at Risk model is significantly different from other risk measures and shows more risk. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
62 - Predicting Corporate Financial Indicators Using the Conditional Average Estimator and Genetic Metaheuristic Algorithms
Ebrahim Alizadeh Hamidreza Vakilifard mohsen hamidianAbstractPredicting the financial position of companies based on financial indicators is one of the most important issues of interest to investors, creditors and other stakeholders of the company such as suppliers or retailers. Because, evaluating a company's financial p MoreAbstractPredicting the financial position of companies based on financial indicators is one of the most important issues of interest to investors, creditors and other stakeholders of the company such as suppliers or retailers. Because, evaluating a company's financial position before making any investment or lending decisions seems necessary to prevent losses. The purpose of this study was to predict the financial indices of companies using the conditional average estimator method (CAE) and genetic algorithm (GA). The research method was DM-CRISP and the financial data of 130 stock companies over 10 years from 2009 to 2018 were analyzed. The results showed that the conditional average estimator method has high accuracy and ability in modeling. Also, the use of genetic algorithm in combination increases the accuracy of prediction. Capital Market Operators Can Use Research Results to Better Predict Corporate Financial and Performance Indicators. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
63 - Identify and examine the process of impact of the most important variables affecting the banking crisis over time
ghodratolah talebnia siavash malekpour Hamidreza Vakilifard Mohammad Hossein RanjbarAbstractThe study of banking crises in the world over time shows that some of them are destructive. Institutional problems, economic and financial sanctions and even the spread of the Corona virus have significantly increased the likelihood of crisis in the country's ba MoreAbstractThe study of banking crises in the world over time shows that some of them are destructive. Institutional problems, economic and financial sanctions and even the spread of the Corona virus have significantly increased the likelihood of crisis in the country's banking system. The share of more than 80% of banks in financing financing investment in the country has doubled the importance of identifying the factors affecting the banking crisis. Banks are used. The present research is applied in terms of research method. Estimation of Bayesian averaging model and TVP_FAVAR in MATLAB 2021 software in 11-year period (2008-2019); it is going to happen. The sample is 10 banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Initially, 49 variables affecting the banking crisis were entered into the model and 12 non-fragile variables affecting the financial crisis were identified using the Bayesian averaging model approach. The output of the results shows that the banking crisis index in the Iranian economy is multifaceted because the variables related to monetary and financial sector policy makers affect it; The results of the TVPFAVAR model also show that the effect of variables affecting the banking crisis is generally positive and strong, and this effect is generally stronger in the long run than in the short run; As a result, in order to reduce the banking crisis, medical and discretionary policies can not prevent the occurrence of the banking crisis, and institutional and fundamental policies and infrastructures are needed. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
64 - Factors affecting liquidity management in pharmaceutical companies: Bayesian averaging approach
ghodratolah talebnia Ramin Pourabdolahian tehrani Hamidreza Vakilifard Jahanbakhsh asadniaAbstractOne of the powerful tools in examining the financial performance of companies is the liquidity of that company and is one of the decision-making indicators of investors. Examining the financial statements of companies is the most important step in investing and MoreAbstractOne of the powerful tools in examining the financial performance of companies is the liquidity of that company and is one of the decision-making indicators of investors. Examining the financial statements of companies is the most important step in investing and in this study, 50 effective variables of financial statements on liquidity management are included in the model. Using Bayesian averaging model approach, 12 non-fragile variables affecting the liquidity management of pharmaceutical companies, which include current liabilities, accumulated profit and loss, P / S, operating profit (loss), gross EPS, net cash inflow (outflow), Total Net Return on Investments, Total Net Flow of Investment Activities, Receiving Financial Facilities, Total Net Flow of Financing Activities, Cash Balance at the Beginning of the Year and Cash Balance at the End of the Year were identified. According to the results of liquidity management of pharmaceutical companies is a multidimensional process; Because the variables related to financial statements, balance sheet and profit and loss and cash flow affect this index. The multidimensionality of the factors influencing this process will require coordination among policy makers active in the industry so that the time inconsistencies created in the decision-making process do not make the situation of companies worse. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
65 - Granger causality analysis in mean patterns to measure the number of lags of the cross-correlation between the standard residuals of returns and trading volume in crisis situation
Mohammad Hasan Saleh Fazel Mohammadi Nodeh mojtaba maleki choobariThis study investigates the analysis of Granger causality in mean patterns to measure the number of lags of the cross-correlation between the standard-residuals of returns and the volume of transactions during the crisis period. For this purpose, based on daily data fro MoreThis study investigates the analysis of Granger causality in mean patterns to measure the number of lags of the cross-correlation between the standard-residuals of returns and the volume of transactions during the crisis period. For this purpose, based on daily data from April 2020 to April 2021, structural breakpoints were first determined and then the relationship between the volume of daily transactions and price changes of the Tehran Stock Exchange was investigated using the GARCH-ARMA model. Finally, the causality was investigated in the average between returns and volume of transactions for each sub-period. The results showed when the prices fall sharply during the crisis period, market participants tend to use the volume of past transactions to predict current returns. Also, the results showed when there is an upward price movement in the post-crisis period, it is observed the correlations are significant from lag 2 to 20. These observations suggest causality-in-the-mean between both series occurs asymmetrically after the crisis period. Such asymmetric behavior supports the trader heterogeneity hypothesis from two perspectives, firstly, the degree of significant cross-correlation between the standardized residuals of both series is stronger in the highest interval before the crisis than after the crisis. Second, the time frame for past trading volume to correlate with current returns becomes longer after the crisis. The results of the research can be used to predict stock prices at a time when we are facing the fall of the stock market and the emergence of behavioral phenomena, especially negative market sentiments. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
66 - A comparative study between the effectiveness of ARIMA and ARFIMA models in predicting the interest rate and the treasury exchange rate in Iran
mohadeseh razaghi hashem nikomaram Alireza Heidarzadeh Hanzaei farhad ghaffari Mahdi Madanchi ZajDue to the importance of predicting economic variables, different models have been created to predict the future values of variables. In fact, economic models can be tested by checking the level of forecasting accuracy. The main purpose of this study is prediction of Ir MoreDue to the importance of predicting economic variables, different models have been created to predict the future values of variables. In fact, economic models can be tested by checking the level of forecasting accuracy. The main purpose of this study is prediction of Iran interbank offered rate and Iran treasury exchange rate as interest rates indicators for facilitating interest rate risk management. Two econometric models including ARFIMA and ARIMA have been used for forecasting. Thus, the ARFIMA model considering long-term memory and the ARIMA model without considering long-term memory have been considered. The evaluation of the prediction accuracy of the two models using the monthly Iran interbank offered rates data and also the monthly Iran treasury exchange rates data shows that both the interbank offered rates data and the Islamic treasury bond rates data, ARIMA model has a better performance compared to ARFIMA model in predicting data. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
67 - Day of the Week Effect in Stock Returns by using Least Mean Square (LMS) Algorithm Regression
Shamsollah Shirinbakhsh Solmaz SafariThis paper propounds to examine the day of the week effect on the returns of daily stock price entire index, in Tehran Stock Exchange market during 1383 to 1388 and 1389. Various approaches have been presented for investigation about calendar effects on stock retu MoreThis paper propounds to examine the day of the week effect on the returns of daily stock price entire index, in Tehran Stock Exchange market during 1383 to 1388 and 1389. Various approaches have been presented for investigation about calendar effects on stock returns. We apply " Least Mean Square (LMS) Algorithm Regression" . In fact, Least Mean Square (LMS) Algorithm Regression avoids the classification of dummy variables to values of one and zero, as we do in the traditional statistical and econometric methodology. The paper concludes that during 1383 to 1388 will lead to a positive effect on the returns on Sunday and in the course of 1389, there is no efficiency significant. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
68 - applying Imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) for construction and optimization Portfolio
Ali Morovati Sharifabadi Shirin Azizi Nastaran AhmadiMarkowitz optimization problem and determining Efficient frontier of investment when the number of asset invested and restrictions on the market is low, is solvable with mathematical models. But when the real world restrictions is considered , the portfolio proble MoreMarkowitz optimization problem and determining Efficient frontier of investment when the number of asset invested and restrictions on the market is low, is solvable with mathematical models. But when the real world restrictions is considered , the portfolio problems cannot be easily solved with mathematical methods. For this reason, the use of innovative techniques such as neural networks, genetic and evolutionary algorithms in optimizing Algorithm portfolio is one of the main topics of discussion in recent times. The main goal of this research is to solve the portfolio optimization problem using optimization Imperialist competitive algorithm. Therefore, using price data of 30 stocks in all listed Automotive parts in the Tehran Stock Exchange from farvardin 1388 to shahrivar 1390, the graphs are plotted. Results of this study show that the optimization Imperialist competitive algorithm in the formed of a portfolio will be successful. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
69 - Compare efficiency technical strategies containing exponential moving average and relative strength index with buy and hold method
Zahra Poorzamani Mohsen RezvaniaghdamIn this study were investigated efficient technical strategies containing exponential moving average (EMA) and relative strength index (RSI) with buy and hold method in order to buy stocks. According to daily and weekly, signals were extracted from 16 investments compan MoreIn this study were investigated efficient technical strategies containing exponential moving average (EMA) and relative strength index (RSI) with buy and hold method in order to buy stocks. According to daily and weekly, signals were extracted from 16 investments companies in Tehran Stock Exchange for three years 1390 to 1392 and was compared with buy and hold method. Results showed, although technical strategies were not efficient enough in order to buy stock in extremely bullish periods (1392) this strategy was efficient in equal periods to buy stock. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
70 - Mean-Variance test based on theoretical framework of downside risk using VAR
fereydoun Rahnamay Roodposhti mehdi Hemmati Asiabargi Laleh Shabani Barzegar Fatemeh KhaksarianVariance and downside risk are different variety of risk factors in portfolio management. The purpose of this research is testing mean-variance based on theoretical framework of downside risk using VAR. Period used for this test is from 1384 to 1393 for Teh MoreVariance and downside risk are different variety of risk factors in portfolio management. The purpose of this research is testing mean-variance based on theoretical framework of downside risk using VAR. Period used for this test is from 1384 to 1393 for Tehran Stock Exchange. VAR is the statistical methods used in this study. The results of this study suggest downside risk works better than the framework of mean - variance. In addition, the difference is even more visible when return on assets is more skewed. The study's outcome suggest the downside risk is a better measurement than mean -variance for investment decisions Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
71 - Investigation of ownership structure effect on risk at manufacturing company in exchange
Gholamreza Eslami Bidgoli Seyed Ahmad MoghimiThe role of people for managing company also this subject is very important. This research goal is determine significant between stock risk (price volatility) at popular statistic. Research finding show that, there is significant relation between study variables so fir MoreThe role of people for managing company also this subject is very important. This research goal is determine significant between stock risk (price volatility) at popular statistic. Research finding show that, there is significant relation between study variables so first & third hypothesis certified but second hypothesis reject. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
72 - Efficiency compared to ARIMA and ARFIMA models for modeling and prediction of Tehran Price Index (TEPIX)
Habibollah salarzehi Mansoor kasha kasha Seyed-Hasan Hosseini Mohammad DonyaeiThis article examines the forecast performance of ARFIMA and ARIMA models using data on daily stock price index of Tehran in period 25/11/2001 to 30/11/2011. To estimate the d parameter and other parameters, the NLS method in the software package Oxmetric / pcgive was u MoreThis article examines the forecast performance of ARFIMA and ARIMA models using data on daily stock price index of Tehran in period 25/11/2001 to 30/11/2011. To estimate the d parameter and other parameters, the NLS method in the software package Oxmetric / pcgive was used. After comparing the results of research models, ARFIMA models based on AIC, the model was found superior in modeling TEPIX. Also we use naive methods for estimating the prediction. Comparing the accuracy of the prediction models by criteria such as MAPFE and RMSFE and confidence intervals of the real values, we can deduce that the first Performance difference between the predicted long-term memory ARFIMA model is very minor compared to the ARIMA model And Secondly, inefficient ARFIMA model in Tehran capital market forecast is quite evident. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
73 - Investigating the Utility of Ichimoku Oscillator-Based Trading Strategies in Tehran Stock Exchange
Sayyed Mohammad Reza Davoodi Sayyed Asghar Mirniam Marzieh Karami ChamgordaniThe technical analysis is one of the methods of market analysis, in which historical stock prices and volumes are used to predict the future direction of price movements.The Ichimucu oscillator is one of the most widely used tools in technical analysis that predicts the MoreThe technical analysis is one of the methods of market analysis, in which historical stock prices and volumes are used to predict the future direction of price movements.The Ichimucu oscillator is one of the most widely used tools in technical analysis that predicts the strength and speed of the process, the ceilings, and the possible temperatures of the price.In this research, the stock market strategy of the Ichimoku oscilloscope, called a typical, conservative, and bold strategy, will be examined.The three strategies differ in terms of combining Ichimoku components with different points of sale.The result of the research on the total index of Tehran Stock Exchange in yield from 1370 to 1395 according to Sharp's ratio shows that the bold strategy is 0/6747 compared to the market strategy of 152,305 and the other two conservative and ordinary strategies that are 0.3335 and 0/310058 respectively , Is in a higher position and has a higher profitability.In terms of return, only a bold strategy has overcome market efficiencies. On the whole, it can be concluded that among the three strategies, the best result is a bold strategy, with a conservative and conservative strategy ranked next. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
74 - Comparing the performance Of Artificial Neural Networks(ANN) and Auto Regressive Moving Average(ARIMA) Model in Modeling and Forecasting Short-term Exchange Rate Trend in Iran
Abbas Ali Abunoori Fardad Farokhi Seyedeh Fatemeh ShojaeyanExchange rate and its related fluctuation plays a significant role as one of the most important issues of each country's foreign trade sector. Many factors such as economic, politics, and psychological factors impress on exchange rates and these factors create more unce MoreExchange rate and its related fluctuation plays a significant role as one of the most important issues of each country's foreign trade sector. Many factors such as economic, politics, and psychological factors impress on exchange rates and these factors create more uncertainty situations. Policymakers’ attempt is to reduce this uncertainty via forecasting this variable with minimal error.Artificial neural networks have high potential in modeling complex processes and forecasting dynamic nonlinear paths .Therefore, in this study has tried to use the artificial neural network (ANN) In addition to modeling and forecasting daily exchange rates during the period of March 2002 to March 2005, and minimizing the forecast error by this method, its results were compared with that of ARIMA based on forecasting accuracy evaluation criteria , and to examine the sensitivity of model results toward exchange rates.Estimation of the model with the same method for three data sets exchange rate including dollar,euro and pound have been performed .Results indicate that used neural network has better predictive power in comparison with arima model while pound and Euro exchange rates’ prices are function of their yesterday prices and dollar exchange rate price is a function of its price over the past 6 days . Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
75 - The Study of Mean reversion in Tehran Stock Exchange with unit root test
Hossein Karbasi Yazdi Yadollah Noorifard Hassan Chenari BouketFinancial Scientists have always been eager to distinguish between whether the price series could be random walk (unit root) or mean reversion processes. Random walk means that accruing shocks to the stock price have permanent impacts and prices don't revert to their pr MoreFinancial Scientists have always been eager to distinguish between whether the price series could be random walk (unit root) or mean reversion processes. Random walk means that accruing shocks to the stock price have permanent impacts and prices don't revert to their previous trend path. In efficient market, the stock return couldn't be predicted using previous price variation. However, efficient market hypothesis is under question because the researchers have provided evidences that reveal some anomalies in stock markets. Mean reversion stock price is one of these anomalies. The purpose of this research is the study of mean reversion in the period 1380-1389. In line with this research, using unit root test (Dickey Fuller generalized), the phenomenon of mean reversion in the total stock price index, stock price and cash returns index, and the index's top fifty companies were examined. The results of the study indicate that continuous changes in the total stock price index and the index of the top fifty companies follow a random walk process or more words that are not eligible for mean reversion. But the price and cash returns index index the result shows that only 1% error level was confirmed that the mean reversion. Error levels of 5% and 10% of the rest of the process did not follow a random walk and mean reversion confirmed. In general, the performance of the Tehran Stock Exchange Index and fifty top companies indicate But the price and returns index results in poor performance suggests a lack of cash. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
76 - An Optimization of Moving Average Stock Price in Tehran Stock Exchange: Meta-heuristic approach Adaptive Improved Genetic Algorithm
Mahboobeh Asghartabar ledari Ahmad Jafari SamimiPredict the stock price is an important topic in financial markets. Is commonly use of technical tools in this area and one of them most functional, are moving averages. The use of two moving averages, the most common method to predict trends, which is in need of two pe MorePredict the stock price is an important topic in financial markets. Is commonly use of technical tools in this area and one of them most functional, are moving averages. The use of two moving averages, the most common method to predict trends, which is in need of two periods. The optimal lengths for both short-term and long-term period for each stock, according to a recent trend, they are different. Find the optimal lengths with traditional methods of costly and often do not reach the global optimal answer. The perfect solution are using of smart tools such as genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithm have been used in this study, is Adaptive Improved Genetic Algorithm that much faster finds a global optimal answer. In this study, data's of the selected companies in diverse industries in Tehran Stock Exchange from April 2011 to March 2016 have been evaluated. The results show, when the algorithm reaches the optimal time period, which its parameters are correctly set. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
77 - Effect of family firms on information asymmetry and cost of capital
Bita Mashayekhi Ahmad AzhangFamily firm is a special kind of firms and has a particular research field. There are unique features in disclosure and information asymmetry of family firms. Contribution of family owners in operation of the firm result effective monitoring of managers. Accordingly, ag MoreFamily firm is a special kind of firms and has a particular research field. There are unique features in disclosure and information asymmetry of family firms. Contribution of family owners in operation of the firm result effective monitoring of managers. Accordingly, agency cost reduces and family owners impose more potential expense by exposing more financial information. In other hand, family firms tend to decline the cost of capital for increasing the firm value by reducing the information asymmetry. The objective of research is investigating the effect of family firms on information asymmetry and cost of capital. According to studing 103 firms during 94-84, there are not any significant effect between family firms and information asymmetry and cost of capital. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
78 - The Revised Sharp Method Examination Based on Value at Risk for Evaluation of Tehran Stock Exchange Companies
S. Reza MirghaffariInitially in this research we introduce a new method for evaluating the performance of company in Tehran Stock Exchange that called Revised-Sharp ratio and then examine this index was compared with sharp ratio. In Revised- Sharp ration we used of Value at Risk (Var) con MoreInitially in this research we introduce a new method for evaluating the performance of company in Tehran Stock Exchange that called Revised-Sharp ratio and then examine this index was compared with sharp ratio. In Revised- Sharp ration we used of Value at Risk (Var) concept. Due to the unique properties and its application in the international financial institutions, VaR was applied as a financial innovation in Revised Sharp index. In this study, evaluating the performance by Revised-Sharp and Sharp was done in Investment and Metal Producer Company for period of study (2007-2011). The results show that there is no difference between ranking of Revised-Sharp and Sharp index in Investment companies (Portfolio). Although in Metal companies there were some differences between ranking of Revised Sharp and Sharp apparently, but also this hypothesis was not approved by nonparametric statistical examination. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
79 - Weekly crude oil price forecasting by hybrid support vector machine model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
Shapor Mohammadi Reza Raeie Hossein karamiFluctuations in crude oil prices in addition to affect the economy of the exporting countries, is one of the sources of disruption in oil-dependent economy. Always predict the price and volatility has been of the challenges facing traders in oil markets and price foreca MoreFluctuations in crude oil prices in addition to affect the economy of the exporting countries, is one of the sources of disruption in oil-dependent economy. Always predict the price and volatility has been of the challenges facing traders in oil markets and price forecast is raised as an imperative and functional however, should be noted forecasts that will take place in more accurate and less error than the observed actual results. In order to predict the weekly price of Brent crude oil as an oil indicator given the difficulty of accurately identifying linear and nonlinear models in economic and financial time series from combining Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models (ARIMA) by the assumption that the time series have a linear pattern and support vector machine (SVM) which has great potential in modeling nonlinear model is used to enhance the accuracy of prediction. Given two paired comparison performance criteria of root mean square error test (RMSE) and the mean absolute magnitude percentage error (MDAPE) which are resulting from the predicted values and actual values for each model, this indicates that in most cases the hybrid model provide smaller errors in predicting the future price of crude oil as compared to the individual applications of autoregressive integrated moving average models and the support vector machine. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
80 - A Performance Evaluation of Black Swan Strategy
Seyed Jalal Sadeqi Sharif Mohammad Osolian Mandana AbolfathiThe identification of price patterns in inefficient markets and the market with distribution of abnormal returns on the market index, is one of the most important factors of earning return commensurate with the risk.In this regard, when the unexpected and extreme market MoreThe identification of price patterns in inefficient markets and the market with distribution of abnormal returns on the market index, is one of the most important factors of earning return commensurate with the risk.In this regard, when the unexpected and extreme market fluctuations happen or so-called black swan events, by forming the portfolio at the correct times can gain higher return than market.The main objective of this article consist of analysis of portfolio performance that forming by black sawn strategy than market portfolio, based on using measures of risk and return in the market with black sawn events. The sample included 83 companies from 10 different industry of Tehran stock exchange, which traded from March 1383 to December 1393. The data were collected monthly.The results show that Tehran Stock Exchange has black swan events that the volatility is ± 4.22 percent. The portfolios formed on the basis of a black swan strategy to market index portfolio, despite limitations of the market, observed better performance. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
81 - Assessment and Providing Map of the Desertification Risk in Abu-Ghoveyr Plain, Dehloran, Ilam Province
Zahedeh Heidarizadi haji karimi SeyedAbdolhossein Arami Farzad AzadniaDesertification is a global phenomenon which can occur in any place and cause significant damages. Therefore, classification and generation of desertification intensity and risk map is a reasonable basis for planning. The present study aims to evaluate desertific MoreDesertification is a global phenomenon which can occur in any place and cause significant damages. Therefore, classification and generation of desertification intensity and risk map is a reasonable basis for planning. The present study aims to evaluate desertification risk in the Abu Ghoveyr Plain in Ilam province, using general risk equation. To this end, first, desertification hazard map was prepared using the Iranian 9-criteria model of IMDPA. For preparing this map, working units map (geomorphologic facies) was created using slope, geology, and land use maps. Using this method, working units were considered as the main unit of desertification then a map was generated for each index according to assigned weights, such that the qualitative map of the desired factors were obtained using the geometric mean of indicators. Then, through integration and determining the geometric mean of layers obtained from indices and finally classification of the obtained maps, map of the current status of desertification in the studied area was generated. Then, elements at hazard in each working units were identified and were transformed to a map. Considering the hazard class of elements, degree of vulnerability of elements was determined. Finally, desertification risk was prepared in 4 classes by combining the risk intensity map, frequency, and the degree of vulnerability of elements. The results suggested that 49.73% of the area was in the high and very high damage classes. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
82 - Optimum ecotourism site selection in Kojur basin of Mazandaran province using ordered weighted average (OWA) and Geographic information system (GIS)
Amir Saadatfar Hassan FaramarziIn order to create sustainable development in the tourism industry, the proper understanding of environmental potentials and its sensitivity to human activities is very important. This study has identified and prioritized the potential of ecotourism sites in the Kojur b MoreIn order to create sustainable development in the tourism industry, the proper understanding of environmental potentials and its sensitivity to human activities is very important. This study has identified and prioritized the potential of ecotourism sites in the Kojur basin of Mazandaran province. Physiographies criteria, including slope, direction, and elevation, as well as criteria of distance from road, river, village, sliding locations and canopy percent, were selected as the appropriate index. The criteria were evaluated and fuzzy by the experts and Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Subsequently, using the Ordered weighted average (OWA) scenarios, the appropriate ecotourism site was selected. To reduce risk and increase managerial power, Boolean logic was used. The results showed that the landslide and the roads had a maximum value of 0.315 and 0.238, respectively. The output maps of the OWA scenarios have shown that the northeastern range of the cougar basin is the most optimal location for the establishment of the ecotourism site, and the northern region was ranked next. In the scenario of the low-risk level and non-compensated, and low-risk level and low compensation scenario, 83 hectares of land were recognized for the appropriate ecotourism site. While, average risk and complete compensation, high risk and low compensation, average risk and non-compensation and high risk and no compensation, were 3179, 1255, 1909, and 2577 hectares respectively for ecotourism sites. The Boolean logic output showed that about 47 hectares of northeastern lands of Kojour basin are an appropriate ecotourism site. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
83 - Determination of urban surface temperature using landSat images (Case study: Karaj)
Behrouz Ebrahimi Heravi Kazem Rangzan Hamidreza Riahi Bakhtiari Ayoub TaghizadehLand surface temperature is a key indicator of energy balance. Besides, it serves as input data for models of climate change, agriculture, meteorology, urban heat islands, choosing the best time to agricultural activities, study of volcanic and geothermal activity, and MoreLand surface temperature is a key indicator of energy balance. Besides, it serves as input data for models of climate change, agriculture, meteorology, urban heat islands, choosing the best time to agricultural activities, study of volcanic and geothermal activity, and fire detection. In this study land surface temperature has been extracted by available methods using 4 images of TM and ETM+ sensors of Landsat in span years of 1985 to 2003. The methods of land lurface temperature extraction included landsat project science office, mono window, SEBAL, Stefan-Boltzmann and single channel. Because of the multiplicity of methods and the number of images used in this study using a statistical method is required. It is required to determine the most efficient extraction method of land surface temperature, which is close to the existing field data. The statistical indicator used in this study was a mean absolute error (MAE). The results indicated that Stefan-Boltzmann method was the best method for both TM and ETM+ sensors. The MAE values for TM and ETM+ were 4.3 and 6.8 respectively, which showed a minimum value among other results. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
84 - Presenting a novel method based on collaborative filtering for nearest neighbor detection in recommender systems
Mahdi Bazargani Zeinab HomayounpourRecommendation systems propose specific items to users based on their interests by analysis the user data. The main goal of this analysis is extraction of each user pattern to predict the interested items. One of the main well-known methods in recommender systems is col MoreRecommendation systems propose specific items to users based on their interests by analysis the user data. The main goal of this analysis is extraction of each user pattern to predict the interested items. One of the main well-known methods in recommender systems is collaborative filtering in which similarity measures are utilized to detect similar users to a new user. The challenging issues related to collaborative filtering are similarity and neighborhood detection. In this paper, nearest neighbor (NN) algorithm is used to detect similar neighbors to a new user. The proposed model, which is inspired by user-item method, the score of items is calculated based on a distance metric and the nearest neighbor is selected. In the presented work, we detect similar users using user-item matrix and the Euclidean distance. The proposed method is evaluated on Movielens dataset which includes 1682 items and evaluation metrics such as Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-measure, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are measured. MAE of the proposed method is 0.7351 which is less than Pearson and Cosine similarities, which demonstrates the superior performance of the proposed method in similarity detection and prediction. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
85 - A Hybrid Method for Long-Term Demand Forecasting in the Electrical Energy Supply Chain of Basic Metal Production Industries in the Presence of Incomplete Data
Sepehr Moalem Roya M.P. Ahari Ghazanfar Shahgholian Majid Moazzami Seyed Mohammad KazemiThe economic growth of any country has a lot to do with the infrastructure of the electrical energy supply chain and the ability to access it at low cost. Increasing the resilience of the electric energy supply chain in order to be able to respond to the real time deman MoreThe economic growth of any country has a lot to do with the infrastructure of the electrical energy supply chain and the ability to access it at low cost. Increasing the resilience of the electric energy supply chain in order to be able to respond to the real time demand of high-consumption and strategic consumers is a challenge that will not be possible without considering long-term demand forecasting and integrated development planning of this chain. This paper presents a long-term demand forecasting approach in the electrical energy supply chain of Isfahan's Espidan iron stone industries. This approach is a combination of wavelet transform, long short-term memory (LSTM) network and finally integrating the results with data-mining technique based on machine learning. The company studied in this research is one of the main suppliers of raw materials in the supply chain of basic metal production industries and one of the ten energy-intensive industries in the electrical energy supply chain of Isfahan province. The only information available from this company is the daily time series signal of the historical electrical energy demand of this industry in a period of 40 months. The data in the studied time series is interrupted so that only 50% of the data has a value and the remaining 50% is zero. This lack of data and the impossibility of access to supplementary data and effective features for forecasting has reduced the density of data and the possibility of long-term demand forecasting faces more problems than continuous time series. The used statistical analysis showed that the annual and seasonal data do not follow the normal distribution and have high distortion and heterogeneity. The proposed method and its results have been compared with other available approaches. The results of 10 iterations of extreme learning machine methods show that the RELM technique with a high confidence level of 95% is more effective than other machine learning methods and has more accurate results. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
86 - Parameters Estimation of Photovoltaic Cell Using Cuckoo Search Algorithm
Vahdat Nazerian Mehran Hosseinzadeh Dizaj Alireza SalehiIn this paper, an electrical equivalent circuit model based on the photovoltaic effect has been presented with the studies done on the simulation of the solar energy system. This linear model, which consists of two diodes, shows the behavior of a solar cell to produce e MoreIn this paper, an electrical equivalent circuit model based on the photovoltaic effect has been presented with the studies done on the simulation of the solar energy system. This linear model, which consists of two diodes, shows the behavior of a solar cell to produce electricity. We have done the desired simulations using MATLAB software. Our goal in this research is to calculate the minimum error value for the unknown parameters of the circuit, which is obtained by the root-mean-square error (RMSE). In order to accurately and reliably determine the parameters of the double-diode model, an optimization method based on collective intelligence called the Cuckoo search algorithm is presented in this article. According to the desired model that we intend to study with the proposed algorithm, to obtain the minimum error value, we calculate the unknown parameters of the circuit and compare them with other methods. The results show that the RMSE value of the proposed algorithm with the initial population value of 50 and the number of iteration rounds of 1000 is equal to 3.56*10-2, which provides better results than other algorithms. The average execution time of this algorithm is 15.81 milliseconds per every iteration round. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
87 - Weed Map Distribution of Chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) Fields and Prediction of Their Presence in Agricultural Fields of Kermanshah Province with Using Geographic Information System (GIS)
Younes Chalechale Mahdi Minbashi Moeini Amir Hossein Shirani RadRecognizing the composition of weed community in chickpea field is the most fundamental issues in weed crop management. Based on chickpea acreage and overall field areas in Kermanshah province during 2009-2010, fifty-two farms were selected as indicators of chickpea fie MoreRecognizing the composition of weed community in chickpea field is the most fundamental issues in weed crop management. Based on chickpea acreage and overall field areas in Kermanshah province during 2009-2010, fifty-two farms were selected as indicators of chickpea fields in the province. The weeds in sampling points were counted based on overall plants and each species and their population indices were calculated. In each field, at sampling points, the longitudes, latitudes and altitudes were determined via GPS device. By using this information, the distribution maps of different weed species of chickpea fields in Kermanshah produced via GIS software. The results showed that there were sixty-one weed species in chickpea fields of Kermanshah province. The ranking of predominant broadleaf weeds of chickpea fields in Kermanshah were included of succory (Cichorium intybus), field bind weed (Convolvulus arvensis), bed straw (Galium tricornatum), wild safflower (Carthamus oxycantha) and cowcockie (Vaccaria pyramidata), of Kermanshah province, respectively. Dominant grasses of chickpea fields in Kermanshah province were included: wild barley (Hordeum spontaeum), spring wild oat (Avena fatua) and Bermuda grass (Cynodon dactylon), respectively. Based on Shannon-Wiener species diversity index, different cities were classified into three clusters. Being in low value for Simpson abundance index of some cities were similar to being low Shannon-Wiener index and were indicated the presence of non-uniform community with the presence of dominant species in chickpea fields of these cities. There were significant differences among of chickpea fields' weeds of different cities in regard to species diversity, only the difference between Kermanshah city and Dalaho and Ravansar cities was significant. The predictive maps of different species based on their soil and climatic requirements showed that shifting of these species toward area with similar ecological conditions are able to infest the area and should prevent weed infestation of new area. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
88 - تحلیل فضایی تغییرات آب وهوایی ایران طی دهه های اخیر
علی داودی شیرین مرادجانی -
Open Access Article
89 - شبیهسازی عملکرد دانه و جذب نیتروژن در برنج تحت مدیریت آبیاری و نیتروژن
آذین نصرالله زادهپژوهش حاضر بهمنظور ارزیابی این مدل، بهصورت کرتهای خردشده در قالب بلوک کامل تصادفی بر روی رقم هاشمی با سه تکرار در دو سال زراعی انجام شد. عامل اصلی آزمایش شامل آبیاری در 2 سطح (غرقاب، آبیاری نوبتی 10 روز) و عامل فرعی نیتروژن در 3 سطح (شاهد، 50 و 100 کیلوگرم در هکتار) Moreپژوهش حاضر بهمنظور ارزیابی این مدل، بهصورت کرتهای خردشده در قالب بلوک کامل تصادفی بر روی رقم هاشمی با سه تکرار در دو سال زراعی انجام شد. عامل اصلی آزمایش شامل آبیاری در 2 سطح (غرقاب، آبیاری نوبتی 10 روز) و عامل فرعی نیتروژن در 3 سطح (شاهد، 50 و 100 کیلوگرم در هکتار) بود. ارزیابی مقادیر شبیهسازی و اندازهگیری شده عملکرد دانه، بیولوژیک، نیتروژن دانه و کل با استفاده از پارامترهای ضریب تبیین، آزمون t، RMSE و RMSEn انجام گرفت. نتایج نشان داد مقدار ریشه میانگین مربعات خطای نرمال شده بین 8 تا 13 درصد، شبیهسازی مقادیر ماده خشک و نیتروژن جذبشده در شرایط آبیاری و کود نیتروژن متغیر است. عملکرد با ریشه میانگین مربعات خطای 254 تا 261 کیلوگرم در هکتار و ریشه میانگین مربعات خطای نرمال شده 8 تا 9 درصد شبیهسازی شد. مقادیر ضریب تبیین برای عملکرد دانه، عملکرد بیولوژیک، نیتروژن دانه و نیتروژن کل به ترتیب برابر با 85/0، 91/0، 79/0 و 84/0 بود. مدل مقدار نیتروژن دانه و کل را بیشتر از مقدار اندازهگیری، شبیهسازی نمود. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که میتوان از مدل ORYZA2000 برای پشتیبانی نتایج پژوهشهای تحت شرایط محدودیت آبیاری و نیتروژن استفاده کرد. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
90 - ارزیابی مدل DRAINMOD در شبکه آبیاری و زهکشی نخیلات آبادان
داوود خدادادیدر این تحقیق، مدل DRAINMOD از نظر مقایسه نوسانات عمق سطح ایستابی اندازه‎گیری شده در مزرعه و شبیه ‎سازی شده توسط مدل و نیز از نظر مقایسه شدت تخلیه محاسبه شده زهکش ‎های مزرعه و شبیه ‎سازی شده توسط مدل، مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. این تحقیق در بخشی از شبکه آبیا Moreدر این تحقیق، مدل DRAINMOD از نظر مقایسه نوسانات عمق سطح ایستابی اندازه‎گیری شده در مزرعه و شبیه ‎سازی شده توسط مدل و نیز از نظر مقایسه شدت تخلیه محاسبه شده زهکش ‎های مزرعه و شبیه ‎سازی شده توسط مدل، مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. این تحقیق در بخشی از شبکه آبیاری و زهکشی نخیلات آبادان انجام پذیرفت. با تجزیه و تحلیل آماری مقادیر اندازه‎ گیری شده و پیش بینی شده عمق سطح ایستابی توسط مدل، معلوم شد که خطای استاندارد (S) و میانگین انحراف مطلق () برای عمق سطوح ایستابی، در سال 2003 به ترتیب معادل 8/8 و 22/8 سانتی‎متر، در سال 2004 معادل 55/10 و 93/9 سانتیمتر ، در سال 2005 معادل 13/10 و 68/9 سانتیمتر ، در سال 2006 معادل 48/11 و 08/11 سانتیمتر و برای سال 2007 معادل 16/11 و 92/10 سانتیمتر تعیین شد. این مقادیر، دقت بالای مدل DRAINMOD را در شبیه ‎سازی نوسانات عمق سطح ایستابی تایید می نمایند. همچنین با تجزیه و تحلیل آماری مقادیر اندازه‎گیری شده و پیش بینی شده شدت تخلیه زهکش‎ ها توسط مدل، معلوم شد که خطای استاندارد (S) و میانگین انحراف مطلق () برای شدت تخلیه زهکش ‎ها، در سال 2006 به ترتیب معادل 99/1 و 9/1 سانتیمتر و در سال 2007 معادل 18/1 و 15/1 سانتیمتر تعیین شد که این مقادیر قابل قبول بودن مدل DRAINMOD را در شبیه ‎سازی شدت تخلیه زهکش‎ ها تایید می نمایند. با توجه به نتایج این تحقیق، مدل DRAINMOD یک مدل مناسب برای شبیه ‎سازی نوسانات عمق سطح ایستابی و زهاب خروجی، در اراضی دارای سیستم زهکشی در استان خوزستان معرفی شد. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
91 - Performance prediction of a steam single-effect absorption chiller by the artificial neural network
Farshad Panahizadeh Mahdi Hamzehei Mahmood Farzaneh-GordDepending on the temperature and pressure of the heat source, single-effect absorption chillers are categorized in two types of hot water and steam single-effect chillers. Due to the ability to use the waste steam in oil, gas and petrochemical industries for air conditi MoreDepending on the temperature and pressure of the heat source, single-effect absorption chillers are categorized in two types of hot water and steam single-effect chillers. Due to the ability to use the waste steam in oil, gas and petrochemical industries for air conditioning and process cooling purposes, the steam type chiller is more widely used. In this study, the artificial neural network is exploited in the prediction of the steam single-effect absorption chiller performance since it is faster and has lower computational cost compared to thermodynamic modeling methods. The perceptron multilayer neural network with the error backpropagation algorithm, the hyperbolic tangent excitation function and the Levenberg-Marquardt learning method with 15285 data points and also the mean squared error estimation index are used. Inputs of the artificial neural network are the inlet cooling tower water temperature, inlet chilled water temperature, inlet steam temperature, outlet chilled water temperature and the solution heat exchanger efficiency respectively. Also, outputs of the neural network are the coefficient of performance and thermal energy consumption of the chiller. Results of this study show that the artificial neural network is capable to predict the coefficient of performance and the thermal energy consumed by the single-effect absorption chiller while the values of mean squared error are 3.183×10^(-7) and 7.466×10^(-8) respectively which verify the accuracy of the method proposed here in absorption chiller performance prediction. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
92 - Investigating particle size along the gravelly bed Chandab River on The statistical differences, are determined pattern Sedimentary discontinuities
پرویز Ansari-rad سادات Fiznia -
Open Access Article
93 - A New Approach to Determining the Annual Active Power Losses of Distribution Systems
meisam amirahmadi alireza khanbabaOne of the most important problems in distributed networks, is the loss of these networks. The function of energy annual loss is mainly one of the main functions in operation and optimum development of distributed networks problems. for calculating annual loses of energ MoreOne of the most important problems in distributed networks, is the loss of these networks. The function of energy annual loss is mainly one of the main functions in operation and optimum development of distributed networks problems. for calculating annual loses of energy in distributed networks need to calculate the load flow in all hours of a year, so that this matter needs high volume and time for calculating.in this article with using IEEE-RTS network load model, a new load model that named 288-h average load model for calculating annual loses of energy in distributed networks is presented. The performance of this proffered model on IEEE 33-bus test system is under study an analysis, and the forward/backward sweep technique is being used for load flow in test system. The result shows the excellence of the offered model. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
94 - Proposing a Hybrid Model of Fuzzy Multi Attribute Decision Making for Prioritizing and Selecting Maintenance Strategies
Ali Mohtashami Mohamad Miri Asl The purpose of this paper to evaluate the preferred maintenance strategy is multi-criteria decision-making methods. For the purpose of decision making under uncertainty has been studied, So that all data is arranged in a triangular fuzzy number. In the proposed More The purpose of this paper to evaluate the preferred maintenance strategy is multi-criteria decision-making methods. For the purpose of decision making under uncertainty has been studied, So that all data is arranged in a triangular fuzzy number. In the proposed method of this paper, the weights are calculated Then Strategies and then taking measures with the fuzzy TOPSIS method, fuzzy vikor and Fuzzy Simple Additive Weighting rankings were. Then, taking into account the ranking obtained using these methods and techniques Copeland and Average Rating final ranking of strategies was calculated. In order to assess the performance of the model, a case study was carried out at Bid Boland Gas Refinery Co and Results obtained from the use of this method is presented in the target company. The results indicate that the model is an appropriate model for preventive maintenance strategy selecting. Finally, suggestions for future research are presented. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
95 - Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Farm Power Production Using a Modified Artificial Neural Networks Based Algorithm in Python: A Case Study in Manjil
Hamid Jabari Ardalan Shafiei-Ghazani Farkhondeh JabariThis paper presents a new approach for short-term forecasting of wind farm power generation using artificial neural networks under Python programming language. In this method, weather conditions such as wind speed, wind direction, temperature and air pressure are select MoreThis paper presents a new approach for short-term forecasting of wind farm power generation using artificial neural networks under Python programming language. In this method, weather conditions such as wind speed, wind direction, temperature and air pressure are selected as key features affecting the power production of the wind farm. To achieve a relatively accurate estimate, the root mean squared error of the predicted values is calculated and minimized as the objective function. The speed and accuracy of the proposed algorithm have been evaluated by conducting a case study on a wind farm located in Manjil, Iran. The power production of the wind power plant is predicted for a time horizon of one week and hour by hour using the wind speed, wind direction, temperature and air pressure during 8592 hours (total hours of a year minus hours of a week). The root mean squared error, the highest relative error percentage, the time resolution of the forecasts and the calculation time of the proposed algorithm are compared with other algorithms published in recent years, which shows the effectiveness and high accuracy of the results in a short calculation time. The power production of the wind farm was predicted hour by hour during a week and 168 data points were obtained, the root mean squared error in the optimal scenario is equal to 0.010817. The calculation time of the forecasting algorithm is less than 1 minute, and the maximum relative error in the proposed method is 2.3%, which demonstrates that the uncertainties associated with the power production of the wind farm can be reduced by using this short-term forecasting approach. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
96 - یادگیری و رشد دستور زبان فارسی در بین کودکان رده سنی مهد کودک
Farhad Tayebipour محمد جواد ریاستیهدف از انجام مطالعه کمی حاضر، پاسخگویی به چهار سوال است: نخست اینکه آیا تفاوتی بین توسعه دانش دستوری کودکان 2.6 ساله و کودکان 3.6 ساله وجود دارد. دوم اینکه آیا تفاوت معنی داری بین این دو گروه سنی از نظر میانگین طول پاره گفتار (MLU) وجود دارد. سوال سوم به رابطه بین میانگ Moreهدف از انجام مطالعه کمی حاضر، پاسخگویی به چهار سوال است: نخست اینکه آیا تفاوتی بین توسعه دانش دستوری کودکان 2.6 ساله و کودکان 3.6 ساله وجود دارد. دوم اینکه آیا تفاوت معنی داری بین این دو گروه سنی از نظر میانگین طول پاره گفتار (MLU) وجود دارد. سوال سوم به رابطه بین میانگینطولپارهگفتار کودکان و مربیان آنها می پردازد. چهارم اینکه آیا محدوده طبیعی پیشنهادی براون (1973) در فراگیری زبان فارسی مشاهده می شود. به این منظور شش نمونه زبانی مربوط به کودکان و مربیان مهد کودک در طی یک دوره زمانی شش هفته ای جمع آوری و سپس مورد مطالعه قرار گرفت. نتایج مطالعه از لحاظ تفاوتهای سنی و توسعه دانش دستوری نشان داد که هیچ پاسخ قطعی یا مثبتی برای این سوال وجود ندارد. یعنی در برخی موارد تفاوت هایی مشاهده شد و در برخی موارد دیگر هیچ تفاوتی مشاهده نشد. همچنین از لحاظ میانگینطولپارهگفتار، تفاوت معنی داری بین دو گروه سنی مشاهده شد. اما هیچ تفاوت معنی داری در میانگینطولپارهگفتار بین کودکان و مربیان مشاده نشد. در نهایت مشخص شد که محدوده طبیعی پیشنهادی براون (1973) در فراگیری زبان فارسی وجود دارد. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
97 - Supply Chain Analysis via the Queuing Theory Approach
Morteza Shafiee Mahsa RafatmahAn important issue in the supply chain concerns minimizing response time for the delivery of goods to the final destination, which can be achieved through selecting the correct route. The optimal path connecting the origin and destination nodes through the least i MoreAn important issue in the supply chain concerns minimizing response time for the delivery of goods to the final destination, which can be achieved through selecting the correct route. The optimal path connecting the origin and destination nodes through the least intermediate nodes is called the shortest path. The shortest path in supply chain networks considered in this paper concerns the problem of sending an order from an original node to a destination node on a network which lacks a perfect and permanent fixed structure. The queuing theory measures were employed in the present enquiry to find out the shortest path. Initially, the supply chain and queuing network were concisely introduced and then, the two-input and three-stage supply chain of Balan Sanaat Company was displayed. Each input order to the supply chain is represented by two stochastic variables including the occurrence time and the number of commodities to be delivered. Further, the measures of the performance and productivity measures were extracted via the queuing network approach to serve the purpose of the study which was to compute the minimum response time for the delivery of items to the final destination along the three-stage network. The average number of items that can be delivered during this minimum response time constitutes the optimum capacity of the queuing network. At each stage of the queuing network, decisions regarding the most appropriate delivery route to the next node in the shortest possible time is made right at the preceding delivery node. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
98 - Measuring the Adaptation Rate of Car - Part Producing Firms with Just in Time System’s Criteria in Tabriz
Hoshang Taghizadeh Ghaffar Tari Mahdi Sadegi Hariri This paper tries to investigate the adaptation rate of car parts producing firms with Just in Time system’s criteria. Two questionnaires have been used for data gathering. The first one has been used to determine the current situation of More This paper tries to investigate the adaptation rate of car parts producing firms with Just in Time system’s criteria. Two questionnaires have been used for data gathering. The first one has been used to determine the current situation of the firms in terms of JIT system’s characteristics by 97 production managers of the firms. This questionnaire included 42 Five-statement questions that were scored in the range of 0-100. The second questionnaire (paired comparison matrix) was used for determining the importance weight of the sub criteria. Finally the adaptation rate of car part producing firms with JIT system’s criteria was measured using the weight mean formula. After calculations, radar chart showed that there is a relatively great gap between the situation of car part producing firms in Tabriz and the Just in Time systems. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
99 - Selecting preventive and maintenance strategy towards the to improve the assessment indexes of dependability and variability‘s criteria
changiz Valmmohamadi Javad Sofiyabadi Fakhrodin Lotf ZadehThe main purpose of this study was to select a preventive and maintenance net strategy to improve the assessment indexes of dependability and variability in a company providing the gas and oil machinery and equipment for oil and gas production. The research method was a MoreThe main purpose of this study was to select a preventive and maintenance net strategy to improve the assessment indexes of dependability and variability in a company providing the gas and oil machinery and equipment for oil and gas production. The research method was an applied and experimental one. To gather the data, the standard daily visit, the cause and effect analysis of using lathe damages of nine machine system during the two study phases were investigated. The research hypotheses, after confirming the normality of the data, were analyzed through mean hypothesis of one population, paired T- test, and between group correlation coefficient. In the first phase, the inclusive net strategy based on mean time for maintenance and net based on dependability were administered. In the second phase the combined net strategy was administered. In both phases the mean time indexes between failure and repair were assessed to see the effects of three compared strategies and the best net strategy was chosen. The results showed that the combined net strategy produced the improvement of the assessment indexes of dependability and variability and also increased the productivity of machinery and equipments. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
100 - Effect of sodium bicarbonate and beta-alanine supplementation on anaerobic capacity and blood lactate level of female futsal players
Mandana Gholami Marzieh Hafezi eirdmousa sahar ghasem shoar Hossein abednatanziThe main aim of this study was to determine the effect of sodium bicarbonate and beta-alanine supplementation on anaerobic capacity and blood lactate levels of female futsal players. Method: 40 volunteer female futsal players of the Tehran League were selected based on MoreThe main aim of this study was to determine the effect of sodium bicarbonate and beta-alanine supplementation on anaerobic capacity and blood lactate levels of female futsal players. Method: 40 volunteer female futsal players of the Tehran League were selected based on the variables of entering the research and sampling and randomly selected four of the 40 volunteers and randomly divided into four control groups (n=10), sodium bicarbonate (n=10), beta-alanine (n=10) and sodium bicarbonate and beta-alanine (n=10) were divided. The anthropometric characteristics of their height, weight and body mass index were measured before the test. Then the Wingate test was performed to measure power and their blood lactate level was also measured using a lactometer. After each test session, the bicarbonate group received 0.3 grams of sodium bicarbonate supplement per kilogram of body weight, the beta-alanine group received 0.3 grams of beta-alanine supplement per kilogram of body weight, and the combined group also received per kilogram The combination of beta-alanine and sodium bicarbonate was used for 0.3 grams of body weight, and the control group used 0.3 grams of placebo (starch) per kilogram of body weight, and after 90 minutes, the relevant tests were performed again. Also, the subjects' diet was controlled during the test. Finally, descriptive statistics, Shapiro-Wilk test, one-way analysis of variance test and Tukey's post hoc test were used for statistical analysis of the data using spss/21 software at a significance level of p≤0.05. The results showed that the supplement of sodium bicarbonate and beta-alanine has a significant effect on the average power and blood lactate level of female futsal players. According to the results of the research, it is suggested that coaches and players use sodium bicarbonate and beta-alanine supplements to increase strength and reduce the negative effects of lactic acid. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
101 - Study and Evaluation of Temperature in Aleshtar City based on Artificial Neural Network Model
Mahnaz Hassanvand Reza Borna Manijeh Zohoorian Pordel Alireza ShakibaTemperature assessment and forecasting is one of the most practical estimates of climatic elements. Today, the agricultural and industrial sectors are highly dependent on the temperature conditions. Temperature is one of the most important climatic meters that is one of MoreTemperature assessment and forecasting is one of the most practical estimates of climatic elements. Today, the agricultural and industrial sectors are highly dependent on the temperature conditions. Temperature is one of the most important climatic meters that is one of the main factors in the climate identity of each region. The purpose of this study is to make a model for predicting the average monthly seasonal temperature of selected stations in Lorestan province, including Al-Shatrami region. Identification and detection of vulnerabilities in the infrastructure of Aleshtar districts in the conditions of climate change. And due to the inadequacy of the 30-year time series of Al-Ashtarl, neighboring cities such as Khorramabad-Aleshtar-Borujerd synoptic stations have been used, because the artificial neural network method has a great ability to simulate and predict atmospheric elements. And the weather, especially the temperature. To model and predict the seasonal monthly temperature, the r programming tool software of the fOre gast package has been used. Two tests of estimator trend analysis have been used. The 30-year time series trend of these elements was examined during the basic statistical period (1989-2019). The climate cycle was reported and extracted under two scenarios: NNAR and forEgast. The artificial neural network is one of the most powerful models capable of receiving and displaying complex Data input and output is one of the most widely used neural network (NNA) models to determine the best network inputs. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
102 - جوانهزنی بذر علف هرز تاتوره(Datura stramonium L.) تحت شرایط متفاوت دمایی و نوری
طیبه رستمی شکوفه غلامی سعیده عالی پور -
Open Access Article
103 - برهم کنش عصاره جلبک دریایی (Ascophyllum nodosum) و تنش خشکی بر شاخصهای جوانهزنی بذر گیاه گوجهفرنگی(Lycopersicon sculentum L.)
راهله احمدپور فرنوش محمدی نظام آرمند -
Open Access Article
104 - ارزیابی ارقام برنج تحت تنش شوری در مرحله جوانهزنی
رضا جلالی فر سهیلا نیک زاده طالبی دانش کاظمی تکلیمی -
Open Access Article
105 - جوانهزنی بذر علف هرز تاتوره (Datura stramonium L.) تحت شرایط متفاوت دمایی و نوری
طیبه رستمی شکوفه غلامی سعیده عالیپور -
Open Access Article
106 - ارزیابی تأثیر پیش تیمار با ایندول استیک اسید بر خصوصیات جوانه زنی تحت تنش شوری (Lepidium sativum) گیاه شاهی
سمیرا علیپور گراوند حشمت امیدی خدیجه احمدی -
Open Access Article
107 - تاثیر نیترات پتاسیم بر شاخصهای جوانهزنی ریحان سبز (Ocimum basilicum L) در شرایط تنش خشکی
علی منصوری حشمت امیدی -
Open Access Article
108 - تأثیر مدت زمان خراش دهی مکانیکی بر شکست خواب بذر (Prosopis fracta L) گیاه دارویی کهورک
خدیجه احمدی طاهره کریمی عاطفه شجاعیان عارفه شجاعیان -
Open Access Article
109 - اثر نانو ذرات کیتوزان و اکسید آهن بر جوانهزنی و شاخصهای رشد اولیه گلرنگ (Carthamus tinctorius L.) در شرایط تنش شوری
علی منصوری احمد احمدی حشمت امیدی -
Open Access Article
110 - Predictability of Statistical models in the evaluate site productivity Fagus Orientalis Lipsky trees
Somayeh Dehghaninezhad Seyed Jalil Alavi Seyed Mohsen HosseiniIn the present study, evaluated predictability of generalized additive and linear models in R software by applying selection variable different method for dominant height of beech species as a high criterion for site productivity. Dominant height defined as average heig MoreIn the present study, evaluated predictability of generalized additive and linear models in R software by applying selection variable different method for dominant height of beech species as a high criterion for site productivity. Dominant height defined as average height of three highest trees in any sample plots. For this purpose, locate 127 circular sample plots with an area of 1000 square meters in beech dominated forests in research forest of Tarbiat Modares university and in each of them height and diameter of Fagus Orientalis Lipsky trees that greater than a diameter of 7.5 cm within each of plot was recorded along with elevation and percent slope and azimuth. Also, at the center of each sample plot, soil samples from 0-10 cm depth were taken, and several soil physical and chemical variables were measured. In this study, performance of five variable-selection methods evaluated individually for each of generalized linear and additive modeles. In order to compared the performance of variable-selection methods in generalized linear model, is used cross-validation with 2500 repeated and for generalized additive model is cross-validation 10-fold. After selecting the best method of variable selection in each of generalized linear and additive models, obtained relative importance of any important variable that finally altitude variable explored as the most important effective variable on dominant height of beech species. Then Using the evaluation criteria of data modeling which showed generalized additive model of evaluation criteria,has better performance than generalized linear model. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
111 - Evaluation of the relationship between some soil characteristics and soil formation factors(Case study: four watersheds in Qazvin province(
Alireza Pazhuhandeh Ali Mohammadi Torkashvand Abolfazl Moeini Ebrahim PaziraThe effective factors in soil formation include parent material, climate, topography, time and living organisms. The changes of these soil formation factors cause different physical and chemical properties in the soil. The purpose of this research was to investigate the MoreThe effective factors in soil formation include parent material, climate, topography, time and living organisms. The changes of these soil formation factors cause different physical and chemical properties in the soil. The purpose of this research was to investigate the relationship between soil-forming factors and soil physic-chemical properties. For this purpose, in four watersheds of Qazvin province, a map of working units was first prepared with field visits with the help of geographic information system at a scale of 1:25000. Then, 101 soil samples were collected and EC, pH, organic matter percentage, sand fraction, silt proportion, and clay percentages were measured. The relationship between soil formation factors and properties was investigated using linear multivariate regression in three methods of Enter, Forward, and Stepwise. To investigate parent materials from the sensitivity factor to the erosion of rocks, for living organisms, the percentage of organic matter through laboratory analysis, for topography from the two factors of slope and height and from the geological era to investigate time and for the climate factor from two Rain and temperature factors were used. The accuracy of these models was validated using two statistics of explanation coefficient and mean squared error. The results demonstrated that the highest R2 value of 0.78 with an RMSE of 0.56 was associated with the relationship between pH and soil-forming factors (regression by the Enter method). There was less than a 50% correlation between silt, clay, and electrical conductivity with soil-forming factors. According to the models obtained in this research, it was found that it is possible to prepare maps of soil physic-chemical properties with the help of soil formation factor maps in different regions by using more extensive modeling. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
112 - Modeling the Factors Affecting the Capital Structure in Companies Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, the Approach of Bayesian Averaging Model
Zahra Talebi Mohammad Sokhanvar Tahereh AkhoondzadehThe capital structure, meaning the way the company is financed, affects the value of the company, the relationship between the components of the capital structure, which is a mixture of bonds and stocks for financing, has a significant effect on the performance results MoreThe capital structure, meaning the way the company is financed, affects the value of the company, the relationship between the components of the capital structure, which is a mixture of bonds and stocks for financing, has a significant effect on the performance results of companies, the aim of the research is to model the factors affecting the capital structure in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (the approach of Bayesian averaging (BMA), This research is practical in terms of purpose and correlational in terms of nature. In order to achieve the goal of the research, 175 companies were selected from among the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 1390 to 1400 by systematic elimination method and considered as the main sample.In order to identify the most important variables affecting the capital structure, the BMA model has been used. Based on this, 61 identified variables affecting the capital structure were included in the Bayesian averaging model. These variables were divided into two categories of internal and external factors. Based on previous probabilities, 17 variables were identified as important variables on capital structure. Among these variables, 10 intra-company variables (type of ownership; net operating profit; current ratio; total assets turnover ratio; interest rate coverage ratio; debt-to-equity ratio; beta per share; accrual profit management; financial distress and tax) and 7 external variables (inflation, exchange rate, budget deficit, business climate index, economic resilience index, sanctions index, capital market depth) were effective on the capital structure Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
113 - Identifying the Determinants of Corruption: An Application of Instrumental Variable Bayesian Model Averaging
Safoora Kashefi Mohsen Mehrara Ghahraman AbdoliAbstractPrevious studies in the corruption literature have introduced numerous variables as the determinants of corruption. This articles aims to evaluate the robustness of potential determinants of corruption by addressing the model uncertainty and endogeneitry. The re MoreAbstractPrevious studies in the corruption literature have introduced numerous variables as the determinants of corruption. This articles aims to evaluate the robustness of potential determinants of corruption by addressing the model uncertainty and endogeneitry. The results derived from an instrumental variable Bayesian model averaging analysis indicate that based on the data of 123 countries, rule of law, with a posterior inclusion probability (PIP) of 1 and posterior mean of 0.662 has the most important role in keeping corruption under control among 36 explanatory variables. Government effectiveness, with a PIP of 0.964 and posterior mean of 0.358 is another significant variable in curbing corruption. Also, with a PIP of 0.965 and posterior mean of -0.194 the Asia dummy variable tells that corruption is a serious problem in the Asia region. Further, confining the analysis to 95 developing countries reveals that rule of law with a PIP of 0.999 and posterior mean of 0.684 is the most critical variable in the fight against corruption. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
114 - Effect of Shock Factors Affecting Financial Crises in Iran's Economy: Autoregressive Vector Models Variable-Time Parameters
ozra bayani teimur mohammadi javid bahrami Hossein TavakolianThe purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of shocks on factors affecting financial crises in Iran's economy. In this study 62 explanatory variables were introduced into the model between 1370: 1 and 1395: 4 and, using the Bayesian averaging model approach MoreThe purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of shocks on factors affecting financial crises in Iran's economy. In this study 62 explanatory variables were introduced into the model between 1370: 1 and 1395: 4 and, using the Bayesian averaging model approach, 12 non-critical variables that were effective on the financial crisis were identified. According to the results of the results, it can be stated that the financial crisis index in Iran's economy is a multi-dimensional problem, as variables related to fiscal policy; monetary policy and foreign exchange policy affect this index. Based on the results of the Autoregressive Vector Models Variable-Time Parameters, it was also observed that the effect of selected variables on financial crises in Iran over the course of time has had different effects and in recent years the intensity of the effect of selected variables has been strengthened. One of the fundamental solutions is that policies that reduce inflation uncertainty, such as the fiscal and monetary discipline of the government and the central bank, reduce crisis expectations by stabilizing the currency and currency markets can reduce crisis uncertainty. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
115 - Stock Price Forecasting through Using ANN and ARIMA Techniques: A Case Study of Pars Petroleum Company
Seyed Nezame aldin Makian Fateme sadat MousaviStock exchange market is one of the important ways to investment. In this market, the investors are looking for the best securities to maximize the profit. Therefore, forecasting the stock price of next day has a vital role in purchasing such securities. To do this, app MoreStock exchange market is one of the important ways to investment. In this market, the investors are looking for the best securities to maximize the profit. Therefore, forecasting the stock price of next day has a vital role in purchasing such securities. To do this, application of Neural Networks financial forecasting has become very popular over the last few years. In this paper, for predicting the next day's close stock price of Pars Petroleum Company, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) will be developed, used and compared. The data are daily collected and analyzed during 2009-2011. The findings indicate that forecasting the price by Neural Network is superior to ARIMA due to its less error coefficients and high explanatory ability. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
116 - A Feature Extraction Based Long-Term Electricity load forecasting Framework to Reduce the Outliers Data Effects
Mohammad Davoud Saeidi Majid MoazzamiElectrical load forecasting is the prediction of future demands based on various data and factors containing different consumptions on weekdays, electricity prices and weather conditions that are different for societies and places. Generally, medium-term electrical load MoreElectrical load forecasting is the prediction of future demands based on various data and factors containing different consumptions on weekdays, electricity prices and weather conditions that are different for societies and places. Generally, medium-term electrical load forecasting is often used for the operation of thermal and hydropower plants, optimal time planning for maintenance of power plants and the power grids. However, long-term electrical load forecasting is used to manage on-time future demands and generation, transmission and distribution expansion planning. In this paper, a hybrid long-term load forecasting approach using wavelet transform and an outlier robust extreme learning machine is proposed. Hourly load and temperature data were extracted from the GEFCOM 2014 database and divided into two classes of training and test. The one-level wavelet transform is used to decompose data to extract properties and reduce the dimensions of the data matrix. Decomposed low-frequency component (approximations) and high-frequency component values (details) from wavelet analysis are entered into the model for training and forecasting. For comparison accuracy of the proposed method, wavelet transform is applied to the data for the other three extreme learning machines. Also data without wavelet transform entered into four other forecasting models and the load forecasting results are compared with the proposed method. The results of the above mentioned evaluation show that electrical load forecasting by using wavelet transform and outlier robust extreme learning machine improves forecasting accuracy and the MAPE reduces to 3.0966. The overall calculated error by the proposed method was the best result obtained between the three several models of extreme learning machines and without preprocessing model. The MAPE is 0.4208 less than the ELM, 0.944 less than the RELM, and 0.1353 less than the WRELM model, respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
117 - Electricity load forecasting using hybrid models based on Multi-Layer Perceptrons Neural Network and Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average models
Fateme Chahkoutahi Mehdi KhasheiNowadays, saving time and economy of each country requires proper planning, decision making, and rational forecasts in different areas. One of the most well-known areas that has received a lot of attention is electricity forecasting. The features of the electricity whic MoreNowadays, saving time and economy of each country requires proper planning, decision making, and rational forecasts in different areas. One of the most well-known areas that has received a lot of attention is electricity forecasting. The features of the electricity which makes it distinguished from other commodities are the impossibility of storing it and the existence of seasonality and nonlinear and ambiguity pattern in electricity data set. These features of the electricity makes it more difficult to forecast using traditional methods. Therefore, in this paper, a parallel optimal hybrid model using seasonal linear and nonlinear methods is proposed to forecast the electricity load forecasting. The main idea of this model is the use of the advantages of individual models in the modeling of complex systems in a structure, simultaneously. Experimental results indicate that in this method due to the use of a direct weighting method, the computational cost of modeling it is significantly lower than other parallel hybrid methods. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
118 - Long-Term Demand Forecasting in Electrical Energy Supply Chain of Espidan Ironstone Industry using Deep Learning and Extreme Learning Machine
Sepehr Moalem Roya M. Ahari Ghazanfar Shahgholian Majid Moazzami Seyed Mohammad KazemiEspidan ironstone industries is one of the most consumed power industries in the electricity supply chain of Isfahan province as the second industrial hub of the country and one of the main suppliers of raw materials in the supply chain of the country's steel industry. MoreEspidan ironstone industries is one of the most consumed power industries in the electricity supply chain of Isfahan province as the second industrial hub of the country and one of the main suppliers of raw materials in the supply chain of the country's steel industry. Planning in a large-scale electricity supply chain, in a space full of uncertainty, is begin with electricity demand forecasting.In this paper, a hybrid long-term demand forecasting method in the electricity supply chain of Isfahan's ironstone industries using a combined data mining method including wavelet transform,deep learning and intensive learning machine is proposed. The used data in this study is according to the recorded information from the electrical energy demand signal of Espidan ironstone industries in a period of 40 months in the form of 24-hours. The data in a part of the study period due to the lack of production of this industry in some hours are interrupted. So that only 40% of the data had a value and the remaining, 60% were zero. This subject led to information deficiencies and increases the forecasting error up to 40% in the first step of the proposed algorithm. By completing the first step of the proposed model with intense learning machine (ELM) the forecasting error is reduced and it was possible to create an improved forecasting model for supervised training. Finally, simulation results are compared with other available approaches such as support vector machine and decision tree. The results show the improvement and reduction of error and a significant increase in the accuracy of the proposed method in long-term demand forecasting in the electricity supply chain of Espidan ironstone industries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
119 - Improvement of ECG Signal Noise Removal Using Recursive Kalman Filter
Sara Moein Zahra BeheshtiNowadays, Kalman filter has been wildly used for solving the problem of real world. Kalman filter is a recursive filter that estimates the state of a linear dynamic system from a series of noisy measurements. One of the applications of Kalman filter is signal processing MoreNowadays, Kalman filter has been wildly used for solving the problem of real world. Kalman filter is a recursive filter that estimates the state of a linear dynamic system from a series of noisy measurements. One of the applications of Kalman filter is signal processing. In this paper, we use Kalman filter for electrocardiogram (ECG) signal noise removal. First accidental ECG signals are collected from Physiobank database and then Kalman filter is tuned for noise removing from ECG signals. In addition, we apply Finite Impulse Response (FIR) filter for ECG signal noise removing and finally we compare the performance of two filters using Mean Square Error (MSE) measurement. Results show the superior performance of Kalman filter for ECG signal noise removal. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
120 - Determinants of Tourism Development in Developing Countries: A Bayesian Econometric Approach
Hossein Panahi Sima NasibparastSince tourism is increasingly developing in all over the world, it is focused more than before by most economists and policy makers. Accordingly, in order to make appropriate policies to improve tourism, investigating the determinants of tourism demand is very important MoreSince tourism is increasingly developing in all over the world, it is focused more than before by most economists and policy makers. Accordingly, in order to make appropriate policies to improve tourism, investigating the determinants of tourism demand is very important. According to the literature, there are a lot of possible variables which their effects on tourism demand in different economies have been emphasized by previous studies. Therefore, using the data obtained from Iran Provinces and applying Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method, this study tried to investigate the determinants of tourism demand in developing countries during 1995-2012. The results showed that the population of destination (as an index showing the size of market) and GDP (development index) are the most important variables which affect tourism demand. In addition, the variables related to infrastructures, communication facilities, international trade, quality of life and human capital (education and health) have positive effects on tourism development. On the contrary, some variables like high relative prices and poor quality of life such as pollution have reducing impact on tourism demand. According to the results, it is suggested to improve transport infrastructure, develop an efficient human capital by improving education and health status, and reduce pollution in cities. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
121 - برهم کنش عصاره جلبک دریایی (Ascophyllum nodosum) و تنش خشکی بر شاخصهای جوانهزنی بذر گیاه گوجهفرنگی(Lycopersicon sculentum L.)
راهله احمدپور فرنوش محمدی نظام آرمند -
Open Access Article
122 - ارزیابی ارقام برنج تحت تنش شوری در مرحله جوانهزنی
رضا جلالی فر سهیلا نیک زاده طالبی دانش کاظمی تکلیمی -
Open Access Article
123 - جوانهزنی بذر علف هرز تاتوره (Datura stramonium L.) تحت شرایط متفاوت دمایی و نوری
طیبه رستمی شکوفه غلامی سعیده عالیپور -
Open Access Article
124 - ارزیابی تأثیر پیش تیمار با ایندول استیک اسید بر خصوصیات جوانه زنی تحت تنش شوری (Lepidium sativum) گیاه شاهی
سمیرا علیپور گراوند حشمت امیدی خدیجه احمدی -
Open Access Article
125 - تاثیر نیترات پتاسیم بر شاخصهای جوانهزنی ریحان سبز (Ocimum basilicum L) در شرایط تنش خشکی
علی منصوری حشمت امیدی -
Open Access Article
126 - تأثیر مدت زمان خراش دهی مکانیکی بر شکست خواب بذر (Prosopis fracta L) گیاه دارویی کهورک
خدیجه احمدی طاهره کریمی عاطفه شجاعیان عارفه شجاعیان -
Open Access Article
127 - اثر نانو ذرات کیتوزان و اکسید آهن بر جوانهزنی و شاخصهای رشد اولیه گلرنگ (Carthamus tinctorius L.) در شرایط تنش شوری
علی منصوری احمد احمدی حشمت امیدی -
Open Access Article
128 - مقایسه متون سیاسی ترجمه شده و اصل با تأکید بر فرضیه ساده سازی
احمد علی بابایی زهرا صالحیدر این مطالعه فرضیه ساده سازی - به عنوان یکی از ویژگی های عمومی ترجمه – در متون سیاسی ترجمه شده به فارسی و متون اصلی فارسی که قابل قیاس با آن متون میباشند، مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. متون نامبرده از لحاظ تراکم واژگان، ضریب تعداد کلمات متفاوت در متن و میانگین طول ج Moreدر این مطالعه فرضیه ساده سازی - به عنوان یکی از ویژگی های عمومی ترجمه – در متون سیاسی ترجمه شده به فارسی و متون اصلی فارسی که قابل قیاس با آن متون میباشند، مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. متون نامبرده از لحاظ تراکم واژگان، ضریب تعداد کلمات متفاوت در متن و میانگین طول جملات مورد بررسی قرار گرفتند. بدین منظور از سه کتاب سیاسی ترجمه شده به فارسی و از سه کتاب سیاسی اصلی به زبان فارسی ، سیصد پاراگراف به طور تصادفی انتخاب و برای هر یک از پاراگراف های انتخاب شده تراکم واژگان، ضریب تعداد کلمات متفاوت در متن و میانگین طول جملات به طور جداگانه با استفاده از نرم افزار AntConc 3.2.0w محاسبه شد. سپس با استفاده از آزمون T-test ارزش تفاوت میان میانگین اعداد از لحاظ آماری مورد بررسی قرار گرفت.تحلیل داده ها نشان داد که تراکم واژگان و ضریب تعداد کلمات متفاوت در متون سیلسی ترجمه شده بالاتر از متون اصلی می باشد. اما میانگین طول جملات در متون ترجمه شده کمتر از متون اصلی است . یافته های کلی این مطالعه ، اعتبار فرضیه ساده سازی را با نشان دادن اینکه تراکم واژگان و ضریب تعداد کلمات متفاوت در متون سیاسی ترجمه شده ممکن است پایین تر از متون اصلی نباشد، محدود و مورد چالش قرار داد. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
129 - هزینه و درآمدهای روشهای پروار گاو در برخی از مناطق انتخاب شده شمال غرب تانزانیا
J.L. Malole R.J.M. Kadigi A.Z. Sangedaاین مطالعه هزینهها و مزایای طرح گاو بومی پرواری در حومه شهر شینیانگا و کیشاپو در تانزانیا را بررسی میکند. به طور خاص، در این مطالعه سود خالص (NP) برای پرواربندها بین طرحهای پرواربندی گاو مشخص شده است. طرح به دو دسته اصلی تقسیم شد شامل طرح 1 که در آن حیوانات پوسته پنب Moreاین مطالعه هزینهها و مزایای طرح گاو بومی پرواری در حومه شهر شینیانگا و کیشاپو در تانزانیا را بررسی میکند. به طور خاص، در این مطالعه سود خالص (NP) برای پرواربندها بین طرحهای پرواربندی گاو مشخص شده است. طرح به دو دسته اصلی تقسیم شد شامل طرح 1 که در آن حیوانات پوسته پنبه دانه (CSHL) و در طرح 2 با جیره غذایی بر پایه کیک پنبه دانه (CSC) تغذیه شدند. نظر سنجی با استفاده از یک نمونه از 144 پاسخ دهنده انجام شد. روش جمعآوری دادهها بر پایه پرسشنامه، مصاحبه، مشاهده شخصی، ارتباطات، بررسی مستندات (به عنوان مثال از اینترنت، کتابخانه) و افراد مطلع بنا شد. دادهها با استفاده از آمار توصیفی و آمار کمی و روش استاندارد انجمن شیمیدانان تحلیلی رسمی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان میدهد که سود خالص مثبت نسبتاً در طرح 2 (شیلینگ تانزانیا (119512.87 76.03/USD (TAS) به ازای هر حیوانی پروار شده در سه ماهه از سال) از طرح 1 (TAS 92993، 90/ USD 59.17بر جیره حیوانات بر سه ماهه از سال) بالاتر بود. این نشان میدهد که حرفه پرواربندی در طرح 2، امکان پذیری، سودآوری و کارآمدی بیشتری برای اجرای پایدار دارد. علاوه بر این، متوسط افزایش وزن روزانه (ADG) 5/1، 3/1 و 0/1 برای گاو کوهاندار شاخ کوتاه تانزانیا (TSHZ) نر، گوساله و ماده به ترتیب بالاتر از 2/1، 0/1 و 9/0 برای نر TSHZ، گوساله و ماده در طرح 1 بود. علاوه بر این، ضریب تبدیل غذایی (FCRs) در حدود 0/5، 5/5، 3/6 برای TSHZ نرها، گوساله و مادهها در طرح 2 کمتر از 2/7، 6/8، 6/8 برای نر TSHZ، گوساله و ماده در طرح 1 بود. بنابراین، طرح 2 به لحاظ اقتصادی امکان پذیر و سودآور است و در نتیجه برای بهبود درآمد، معیشت، کاهش فقر و تجاری سازی صنعت گوشت گاو، برای اجرا و پشتیبانی مالی توصیه میشود. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
130 - Estimation of evaporation from Dez regulatory dam station pan using artificial neural network
mehdi najafvand derikvandi hossein eslamiMore rainfall in arid and semi-arid just evaporate into the atmosphere and so estimates the amount of water vapor in the water cycle will be important. Evaporation is dependent on various parameters and to its estimate needs for a different climate variables and the int MoreMore rainfall in arid and semi-arid just evaporate into the atmosphere and so estimates the amount of water vapor in the water cycle will be important. Evaporation is dependent on various parameters and to its estimate needs for a different climate variables and the interaction of these variables is very complex, so it must be accurate methods to be used in the evaporation study. In this study, artificial neural networks were used to estimate the pan evaporation of Dez regulating dam station. As ANN hyperbolic tangent function and the learning momentum was used. Multilayer Perceptron structure which used a network of six input neurons, three hidden layer and an output neuron was formed. Input layers include maximum temperature, minimum temperature, sunshine hours, average wind speed, relative humidity and an average rate of evaporation from water surface to the output layer. The relationship between climatic factors showed that the average temperature on the surface evaporation caused more than sunshine and wind speed. High coefficient of determination (92/0) between the actual data with simulated data with artificial neural network plus a small error (RMSE = 1.41) showed that the estimate accuracy is very high. Verification by t-test revealed no significant (P> 0.01) differences were between actual and estimated values. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
131 - Evaluation of productivity, efficiency and ranking of thermal power plants: an approach based on stochastic data envelopment analysis
Mehdi KhodadadipourIn data envelopment analysis, different models are developed in different fields with different data for evaluation and ranking of DMUs. While in many applications issues, unit managers are faced with stochastic data, and they need a method to evaluate their supervised MoreIn data envelopment analysis, different models are developed in different fields with different data for evaluation and ranking of DMUs. While in many applications issues, unit managers are faced with stochastic data, and they need a method to evaluate their supervised units in a way that can evaluate and rank such DMUs. When working with stochastic data, considering the probability of occurrence of unpredictable states (the level of error) provided by managers, the DMUs are evaluated. In this paper using Probability statistics techniques and normal distribution and the BCC model with undesirable outputs and a specific risk ofSpecified,a new stochastic model called Expected Ranking Criterion is introduced. Based on this,the stochastic cross-efficiency evaluation. Given the non-uniqueness of resulting optimal solutions, a model is introduced for rating priorities by which cross-efficiency is performed using aggressive method. The proposed model is implemented for 32 thermal power plants with stochastic inputs and undesirable outputs. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
132 - تحلیل درجه ریسک پذیری پنبه کاران ایران رهیافت: مدل غیر خطی میانگین- انحرافمعیار
ابراهیم مرادی اسماء عبداللهی درمیانبا توجه به کاهش سطح زیر کشت پنبه در ایران طی سالهای اخیر، بررسی درجه ریسکپذیری پنبهکاران بخش زراعی کشور امری ضروری است. بررسیها نشان میدهد که عملکرد این محصول طی سالهای گذشته، رشد کافی نداشته و هزینه تولید پنبه نیزافزایش داشته است. رشد قیمت پنبه متناسب با افزایش ه Moreبا توجه به کاهش سطح زیر کشت پنبه در ایران طی سالهای اخیر، بررسی درجه ریسکپذیری پنبهکاران بخش زراعی کشور امری ضروری است. بررسیها نشان میدهد که عملکرد این محصول طی سالهای گذشته، رشد کافی نداشته و هزینه تولید پنبه نیزافزایش داشته است. رشد قیمت پنبه متناسب با افزایش هزینه تولید این محصول در دوره مورد مطالعه نیست. در این پژوهش گرایش ریسکی پنبهکاران با استفاده از رهیافت پارامتری و مدل میانگین- انحراف معیار ساها بررسی شد. اطلاعات آماری و هزینه تولید استانهای تولیدکننده عمده پنبه، طی سالهای 1389-1379 گردآوری شد. با توجه به ماهیت تابلویی دادهها مدلهای اقتصادسنجی در قالب دادههای تابلویی تصریح و تخمین زده شد. نتایج حاکی از ریسک گریز بودن پنبهکاران است وگرایش ریسک گریزی پنبهکاران با افزایش نوسانات قیمت محصول (ریسک قیمتی) و عملکرد در هکتار افزایش مییابد. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
133 - مدلهای منطق فازی و سنجش از دور جهت پهنه بندی خطر زمین لغزش در حوضه ی آبخیز لاجیم
علی اکبر متکان جلال سمیعا سید حسین پورعلی مهرداد صفایی -
Open Access Article
134 - The calculation and evaluation of the human development index of the provinces of Iran in the years 2005, 2010, and 2015
hossein askari pour lahiji Reza OTofat shamsiImproving the human development index is the best mechanism for empowering people to achieve the goal of raising their living standards through human capabilities. Promoting the quality of the life of a community is a fundamental change in the economic, educational, and MoreImproving the human development index is the best mechanism for empowering people to achieve the goal of raising their living standards through human capabilities. Promoting the quality of the life of a community is a fundamental change in the economic, educational, and health variables. The present study seeks to examine the status of the provinces of the country in terms of the human development index for the years 2005, 2010, and 2015? The method of this research is descriptive-analytic and is an applied research type. The average human development index for provinces for 2005, 2010, and 2015 is 0.660, 0.650, and 0.627 respectively. Provinces that have a favorable status in the human development index are often located in the center of the country. Overall, the human development index decreases as the center of the country reaches the border regions. It should be noted that the provincial education index is the strong point of the human development index of the provinces. In sum, there is a strong inequality between the provinces of the country and this inequality in the index of economic well being is more than two indicators of education and health. The findings of this research show that provinces with low human development index are consistent with the border provinces of the country. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
135 - The impact of official development assistance on educational outcomes in selected countries of the MENA region
Lotfali Agheli Mehran SamdaliriOfficial Development Assistance can be effective on the education index and its outcomes, the Mean Years of Schooling in adults (people 25 years and older) and the Expected Years of Schooling in children (when entering school). Democracy in countries can positively affe MoreOfficial Development Assistance can be effective on the education index and its outcomes, the Mean Years of Schooling in adults (people 25 years and older) and the Expected Years of Schooling in children (when entering school). Democracy in countries can positively affect the education index and its variables. A country with a better Democracy can create a suitable environment for the education of all members of society. In this regard, this study examines the impact of Official Development Assistance on educational outcomes, including the Mean Years of Schooling and Expected years of Schooling in selected upper-middle income countries of MENA with emphasis on Democracy from 2001 to 2020 and using panel data method. Empirical results indicate that Official Development Assistance per capita, Gross National Income per capita, health expenditure, and population growth rate have significantly increased educational outcomes. The Government Effectiveness Index has a positive effect on educational outcomes, while Voice and Accountability Index (as an indicator of democracy) has negatively influenced the educational outcomes. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
136 - The Application of GMDH Neural Network Approachin Forecasting the Price of Soybean Meal in Merchendis Stock Exchange
علی اکبر باغستانی سعید یزدانی مجید احمدیانAbstract Livestock and poultry industry has depended much on soybean meal. This dependence has led to fluctuations in the price of this product and therefore, forces market participants to follow the sensitivity and accuracy. These fluctuations created serious concerns MoreAbstract Livestock and poultry industry has depended much on soybean meal. This dependence has led to fluctuations in the price of this product and therefore, forces market participants to follow the sensitivity and accuracy. These fluctuations created serious concerns about the supply and price of soybean meal. So, this study, using monthly and weekly data of Soybean prices in the exchange market, tried to forecast soybean price. So Soybean Meal price has predicted with neural network GMDH algorithm and ARIMA. The results based on the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MPAE) showed that the GMDH algorithm, has a better ability to predict the price accurately. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
137 - Portfolio Optimization of Listed Industries in Tehran Stock Exchange using Orthogonal GARCH
sahar abedini esmaiel abounoori Gh. Reza Keshavarz HaddadAbstract The development of financial markets and the stock market play an essential role in economic development. Considering that financial markets are always associated with risk and uncertainty, and shocks and turbulence in one market affect other markets, therefor MoreAbstract The development of financial markets and the stock market play an essential role in economic development. Considering that financial markets are always associated with risk and uncertainty, and shocks and turbulence in one market affect other markets, therefore, one of the main objectives of this research is to identify the type of distribution of financial series (stock returns of different industries) and estimate their uncertainty and risk (turbulence), determining the weight of stocks in the investment portfolio, as well as accurately identifying how the volatility changes and the intensity of correlation and interactions between the stocks of different industries over time in order to maximize the interests of investors and provide the necessary solutions to planners and policy makers Investors are for managing and developing the stock market.In order to optimize, statistics related to the weekly price index data of selected industries (mass housing, banks and credit institutions, chemical, automotive, pharmaceutical and basic metals) have been used. For this purpose, using orthogonal GARCH model and weekly data of stock price index of different industries in the period March 27, 2010 and January 18, 2021, the elements of the variance-conditional covariance matrix were estimated, Then, the stock portfolio was optimized using the obtained information and the distribution of general hyperbolic (GH) skewed t, in the framework of the static and dynamic classical Mean-Variance model as well as the static Mean-CVAR model. The results of fitting (estimation) of the data distribution show that the return distribution of the price index of the studied industries follows the distribution of the general hyperbolic skewed t; Based on the dynamic classical mean-variance model, the highest weight in the stock portfolio in the study period was related to the pharmaceutical (0/6336) and chemical industries (0/3539), respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
138 - Analysis the effects of monetary policy on stock prices in the Iranian economy; Method of Bayesian Averaging and Augmented Time Varying Parameter- Vector Autoregression Approach
Maryam Rouhani Mahmoud Houshmand M. Taher Ahmadi ShadmehriAbstract One of the basic dimensions in the discussion of financial instability is the volatility of asset prices. The reason for the change in asset prices is not only the policies of the central bank, but examining its impact interprets an important part of its chang MoreAbstract One of the basic dimensions in the discussion of financial instability is the volatility of asset prices. The reason for the change in asset prices is not only the policies of the central bank, but examining its impact interprets an important part of its changes. In this research, based on the method of Bayesian averaging and principal component analysis, the monetary policy index effective on the stock price has been determined and through the TVP-FAVAR model, the effect of this variable on the stock price has been investigated in MATLAB software. According to the results, the changes of one standard deviation in the monetary policy index over time on stock prices have been U-shaped. Changes of one standard deviation in the monetary policy index had a positive and strong impact on stock prices in the beginning to the end of the period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
139 - رابطه بین قیمتهای نقدی و آتی سکه طلا در ایران
محسن مهرآرا فاطمه نائبی -
Open Access Article
140 - Examining the Efficiency Models, Genetic Algorithm under MSV Risk and Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm under CVAR Risk Criterion in Selection Optimal Portfolio Shares Listed Firms on Stock Exchange
Dariush Adinevand Ebrahim Ali Razini Mahmoud Khodam Fereydoun Ohadi Elham Elsadat HashemizadehAbstract Choosing the optimal stock portfolio is one of the main goals of capital management. Today, There are several tools and techniques for measuring portfolio risk and selecting the optimal stock portfolio. In this article, using data of 15 shares selected by purp MoreAbstract Choosing the optimal stock portfolio is one of the main goals of capital management. Today, There are several tools and techniques for measuring portfolio risk and selecting the optimal stock portfolio. In this article, using data of 15 shares selected by purposeful sampling method from the top companies of Tehran Stock Exchange Organization including; PKOD, ZMYD, BPAS, FOLD, MKBT, GOLG, MSMI, PTAP, SSEP, AZAB, FKAS, NBEH, PFAN, GMRO and GSBE, the First return of these stocks are calculated daily in the period of 31/3/1394 -31/3/1399 for 5 years for 1183 days and then using MATLAB software models The Metaheuristic Optimization of the Genetic Algorithm under the MSV Risk Criterion and the Particle Swarm Algorithm under the CVaR risk Criterion are Compared. The results show that the genetic algorithm model under MSV risk criterion is more efficient and less risky, therefore the genetic algorithm model under MSV risk criterion is more efficient than the particle swarm algorithm model under CVaR risk criterion. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
141 - Investigating the Impact of Indicators Related to Supervision on Financing Mechanisms and Factors Affecting it
Masoume Alavi Ahmed Yaqubnejad Fazel MohammadiNodehAbstractOne of the important issues in the financing mechanisms and its selection is the issue of financial reporting that has been the focus of creditors and the capital market in recent years as the mainstream of financing. In this context, auditors, as an external co MoreAbstractOne of the important issues in the financing mechanisms and its selection is the issue of financial reporting that has been the focus of creditors and the capital market in recent years as the mainstream of financing. In this context, auditors, as an external corporate governance control and oversight mechanism, can play an important role in informing creditors and investors. Therefore, the present study investigates the impact of indicators related to supervision on financing mechanisms and factors affecting it. The statistical population of the study consists of 99 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2012-2018 . Multivariate regression models were used to test the research hypotheses. , The findings of the study show that some variables of audit firm characteristics such as life, competitiveness, independence, number of partners, rank in the CAO, size and tenure of the firm , have significant effects on financing Debt, issuance of ordinary shares, over-leverage, risk and weighted average cost of capital. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
142 - Investigation of Mean-variance efficiency frontier patterns of portfolios under possible theory
Behnaz Ghadimi Mehrzad Minouei Gholamreza Zomorodian Mirfeiz FallahOne of the most important problems of the proposed methods in measuring the portfolio Efficiency frontier patterns is not considering the uncertainty in financial variables such as risk and return. In this regard, the development of various optimization theories and Ext MoreOne of the most important problems of the proposed methods in measuring the portfolio Efficiency frontier patterns is not considering the uncertainty in financial variables such as risk and return. In this regard, the development of various optimization theories and Extract optimal efficiency frontier of a portfolio in financial sciences to understand and identify aspects of uncertainty in the decision environment and possible events in space of uncertainty and ambiguity of capital markets have been invented and developed. Among the theories proposed in terms of uncertainties, the theory of possibility can be considered the most appropriate and accurate theory in interpreting and proving uncertainties in stock portfolio optimization. For this reason in the forthcoming research to further adapt portfolio optimization models And recognizing the efficient space congruous to reality to extract returns and portfolio risk by mathematical inference in an uncertainty space with emphasis on possible theory. In this study of the concept of fuzzy random variable and fuzzy theory and Fuzzy obligation, In order to cover the uncertainty existing in Cognition and determine the efficiency frontier Mean - portfolio variance Used under the theory of possibility. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
143 - بررسی سودمندی میزان سود تقسیمی بر عملکرد شرکت های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران
محمد حسین ستایش محمد جواد غفاری -
Open Access Article
144 - Capital structure, weighted average cost of capital and their changes
هاشم Valipor M.R Almasi S.I KaidiThe object of this research is study of the changes trend in debt to equity ratio and weight average cost of capital (WACC), and also to investigate the relationship between capital structure and WACC. According to the second theory of Miller and Modigiliani (1963), the MoreThe object of this research is study of the changes trend in debt to equity ratio and weight average cost of capital (WACC), and also to investigate the relationship between capital structure and WACC. According to the second theory of Miller and Modigiliani (1963), there is a meaningful and linear relation between capital structure and WACC; so that through increase in debts, the cost of capital will be decreased. This research has investigated the information collected via Rahavard Novin software, for 38 samples of the firms that listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange during 1379 to 1388. for hypothesis testing used of the ANOVA test and Pearson correlation coefficient. The results show that change in debt to equity ratio, doesn’t have increasing trend and also the changing process of WACC doesn’t have a decreasing trend. The other results indicate there is not a meaningful relation between capital structure and WACC. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
145 - Factor Variability Test in Stock Return Forecasting Using Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA)
hosein maghsoud hamedreza vakilifard Taghi TorabiIn this study, using dynamic averaging models and monthly data in the period 2001:4 until 2018:3, Tehran Stock Exchange returns be investigated. In this regard, macroeconomics variables and parallel markets indices have been used to forecast the stock returns. Initially MoreIn this study, using dynamic averaging models and monthly data in the period 2001:4 until 2018:3, Tehran Stock Exchange returns be investigated. In this regard, macroeconomics variables and parallel markets indices have been used to forecast the stock returns. Initially, estimating various models such as Recursive models, time-varying parameter models (TVP), dynamic model selection (DMS) and dynamic model averaging (DMA) in Matlab software, It was observed that DMS model with α = β = 0.95 had higher forecast accuracy (based on MAFE, MSFE and Log (PL) metrics). Gold price (48-period), exchange rate (36-period) and inflation rate (30-period) had the highest effect on stock returns, respectively, and global oil prices and GDP had the lowest effect by 28 and 2, respectively. Finally, the results indicate that utilizing dynamic models by considering time variations in parameters and the variation of the model increases the efficiency of forecasting stock returns. Keywords: Forecasting, Stock Returns, time-varying Parameter (TVP), Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA). Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
146 - Detecting the variables affecting on Bitcoin price: Bayesian Model Averaging and Weighted Averaging Least Square approach
Mohammad kazem sadeghian kazem yavari abbas alavi radThe purpose of this paper detecting the variables affecting on Bitcoin price using daily Time series data from 2015 to 2019 invoking two method of Bayesian model Averaging and Weighted-Average Least Square. The results of this study show that the price variables of cryp MoreThe purpose of this paper detecting the variables affecting on Bitcoin price using daily Time series data from 2015 to 2019 invoking two method of Bayesian model Averaging and Weighted-Average Least Square. The results of this study show that the price variables of cryptocurrencies with different creation mechanisms from Bitcoin and also the number of circulating cryptocurrencies with similar mechanism to Bitcoin and the volume of liquidity of US dollars affect the price of Bitcoin. On the other hand, the Forex market currency pairs, such as the dollar to Canadian dollar, the dollar to Australian dollar and the dollar to New Zealand dollar, which are less valuable than other major currency pairs in the Forex market, affect the price of Bitcoin. Also, the variables in the number of bitcoins, the number of cryptocurrencies in circulation with a different mechanism from bitcoin, the global price of gold and the number of searches for the word bitcoin in Google on its price have low coefficients. Overall, the results of the two methods of Bayesian averaging and Weighted Averaging Least Square are largely the same, and the use of the optimal pattern selection method confirms this. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
147 - Designing a Risk Assessment Model and determining an Optimal Currency Portfolio for banks by Value-at-risk (VaR) criterion and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA)
Gholamreza Bayati Mohammad Ebrahim mohammadPourzarandiBanks as fund intermediaries in providing and allocating resources to the community, encounter market risk, liquidity risk and etc. In this study, the market risk, is taken into consideration in order to determine the optimal currency basket, one of the fundamental aspe MoreBanks as fund intermediaries in providing and allocating resources to the community, encounter market risk, liquidity risk and etc. In this study, the market risk, is taken into consideration in order to determine the optimal currency basket, one of the fundamental aspects of Foreign Currency Reserve Management in banks, which itself is also affected by fluctuating interest rates, exchange rates, stock prices and etc. The approach used in this paper is the value-at-risk criterion (VaR) the variance-covariance method, along with the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) technic. Value at risk actually summarizes the types of risks in a single digit, and it releases the senior management from bunches of risk calculations. The purpose is to design a model which provide an optimal combination for holding 6 currency reserves such as U.S. dollar, Dirham, Yen, Lira, Won, and Euro in Bank Mellat using the reference rates data of the aforementioned currencies in 2018. At the end, the model was solved using LINGO and Excel software. The results show that the maximum share of the US dollar and the dirhams in the currency basket of Bank Mellat are 33% and 67%, respectively. Accordingly, if the share of that currencies mentioned above exceed the obtained digits in the currency basket, then the maximum expected losses on the currency portfolio increase over the time and at the level of desired level of confidence. Also, other currencies are so risky, therefore Mellat Bank, to hold these currencies must plan more based on its trading needs. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
148 - Examining the Efficiency Models, Conditional Value at Risk and Mean Absolute Deviation and Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm under CVAR and MAD risk criterion in Selection Optimal Portfolio Shares Listed Firms on Stock Exchange
dariuosh adinehvand Ebrahim ali Razini Rahmani Mahmod khoddam Fereydon Ohadi alhamsadat hashemizadehChoosing the optimal stock portfolio is one of the main goals of capital management. There are several techniques and tools to solve problem the optimal portfolio. In this research, using data of 15 stocks which randomly selected from the Tehran Stock Exchange including MoreChoosing the optimal stock portfolio is one of the main goals of capital management. There are several techniques and tools to solve problem the optimal portfolio. In this research, using data of 15 stocks which randomly selected from the Tehran Stock Exchange including; PKOD, ZMYD, BPAS, FOLD, MKBT, GOLG, MSMI, PTAP, SSEP, AZAB, FKAS, NBEH, PFAN, GMRO and GSBE, the First return of these stocks are calculated daily in the period of 31/3/1394 -31/3/1399 for 5 years for 1183 days. Then and their portfolio risk is calculated using the models of absolute deviation risk and conditional value at risk, and these two criteria are compared by the classical solution method. The portfolio optimization output with each of these risks represents a different weight per share. In the following, the deviation - absolute risk model and conditional value at risk model of metaheuristic method using MATLAB (R2019) software are compared. The results show that the PSO model of metaheuristic method compared to the classical method in solving portfolio optimization problem showed more return in PSO-MAD criteria and therefore it is a better method to solve such portfolio optimization problems. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
149 - Development of stock portfolio trading systems using machine learning methods
Ali Heidarian Mohadeseh Moradi Mehr Ali FarhadianInvestment portfolio theory is an important foundation for portfolio management, which is a well-studied but not saturated topic in the academic community. Integrating return forecasting in investment portfolio formation can improve the performance of portfolio optimiza MoreInvestment portfolio theory is an important foundation for portfolio management, which is a well-studied but not saturated topic in the academic community. Integrating return forecasting in investment portfolio formation can improve the performance of portfolio optimization model. Since machine learning models have shown a superiority over statistical models, in this research, a approach of forming the stock portfolio in two stages is presented. first step, by implementing neural network, suitable stocks are selected for purchase, in the second step, using the (MV) model, the optimal weight in investment portfolio is determined for them. In particular, the stages of selecting suitable stocks and forming a stock portfolio are the two main stages of the model developed in this research. first step, a convolutional neural network model is proposed to predict stock buy and sell points for the next period.second step, stocks that are labeled as buys are selected as stocks suitable for buying, and MV model is used to determine their optimal weight in the stock portfolio. The results obtained using 5 shares of Tehran stock market as a study sample show that the efficiency and Sharpe ratio of proposed method is significantly better than traditional methods (without filtering suitable stocks) Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
150 - Forecasting the bank's financial resources using the linear model (ARIMA) and nonlinear artificial fuzzy networks
omid mehrinamakawarani reza ehteshamrasiOne of the most important issues of banking managers as an influential variable on the banking industry is the knowledge of the status of bank deposits that the bank depends on a large extent on it. Therefore, bank managers are keen to know how much the total bank depos MoreOne of the most important issues of banking managers as an influential variable on the banking industry is the knowledge of the status of bank deposits that the bank depends on a large extent on it. Therefore, bank managers are keen to know how much the total bank deposits will be at a given time in the future. Predicting the amount of deposits, changes and fluctuations of these deposits can help banks in planning and decision making. In this research, using statistical techniques and approach of artificial neural network models, we have tried to introduce a model with the highest estimation power and the least amount of error to predict the amount of deposits or the same sources of finance by their different types for the desired bank. To test the hypotheses, one private bank information was used during the period of 1387-1396. In this research, we compared the predictive power of ARIMA and artificial neural network method. To assess the accuracy of forecasting the bank's resources, the ARIMA method used Coopiff and Christopherson tests. The results of the research on the amount of bank deposits monthly showed that the neural network method provides better estimates than the ARIMA method. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
151 - Evaluating the Performance of a Pairs Trading System in Tehran Stock Exchange: the Cointegration Approach and Sortino Ratio Analysis
Saeid Fallahpour hasan hakimianAlgorithmic trading system is a trading system that utilizes highly advanced models is used for trade decision-making in the financial markets. The System of "pairs trading" is also typical of these systems. Pairs trading system is one of the oldest systems of algorithm MoreAlgorithmic trading system is a trading system that utilizes highly advanced models is used for trade decision-making in the financial markets. The System of "pairs trading" is also typical of these systems. Pairs trading system is one of the oldest systems of algorithmic trading that its performance and profitability have been proven and shown in many of the studies that have been conducted so far in the financial markets. The most important principle in pairs trading is the equivalent long run relations or the mean reversion property. In this study, by calculating and evaluating the Sortino Ratio and return, performance of the pairs trading system has been surveyed through the cointegration approach in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The experimental results on pair stocks of selected in the Tehran Stock Exchange shows that using the pairs trading system as a market neutral trading systems has a significant return than return on ordinary shares in the same period. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
152 - مدلسازی و ارائهی راهحل بهینه برای بهینهسازی
امیرعباس نجفی سیامک موشخیان -
Open Access Article
153 - امکان سنجی استفاده از مدل ارزش در معرض ریسک
غلامحسین گل ارضی عظیم الله زارعی لیلا دلاوری مرغزار -
Open Access Article
154 - Profitability of Technical Analysis: Combining Oscillators With Moving Average Rules
Saeed Fathi Nahid ParviziInvesting in the stock market involves analyzing stocks and timing of purchase and sale. For this purpose, different methods and points of view, such as fundamental analysis and technical analysis can be performed. Many studies have investigated the profitability of tec MoreInvesting in the stock market involves analyzing stocks and timing of purchase and sale. For this purpose, different methods and points of view, such as fundamental analysis and technical analysis can be performed. Many studies have investigated the profitability of technical analysis in the capital market and used various trading strategies. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential gains from technical analysis through combining oscillators and moving averages in terms of 6 analytical strategies. Investigating the profitability of technical analysis with use analytical strategy not has been done in country and abroad. For this purpose, in terms of 6 buy and sell strategies, the shares of10 stock petrochemical company that accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange is analyzed. The period of investigation has been 2010 to2013. Findings showed that the majority of all strategies that suggested buying signals, has created a return over the risk-free return. In all strategies, while also buying signals being profitable, holding stock for each of these intervals does not make a significant difference in the rate of annual return.In the first strategy, was observed difference in Returns in time periods. Also, with compare the annual return on all timescales strategy, third strategy have been more efficiently than other strategies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
155 - بررسی اثرات روزهای هفته بر بازده سهام الگوریتم رگرسیون حداقل میانگین مربعات (LMS)
شمس اله شیرین بخش ماسوله سولماز صفری -
Open Access Article
156 - سودمندی قواعد تحلیل تکنیکی در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران و چند کشور منتخب با رویکرد
ابراهیم عباسی حسام جهرامی -
Open Access Article
157 - Stock Portfolio optimization: Effectiveness of particle swarm optimization and Markowitz model
Ali Bayat lida asadiThe purpose of the portfolio management is the portfolio selection, the portfolio that acts as guidance to investors in order to achieve to maximum efficiency. In this study for portfolio selection, particle swarm optimization and Markowitz model are used and a comparis MoreThe purpose of the portfolio management is the portfolio selection, the portfolio that acts as guidance to investors in order to achieve to maximum efficiency. In this study for portfolio selection, particle swarm optimization and Markowitz model are used and a comparison was made between them. Introducing the model to select a portfolio for investors who can make the right choice with evaluation of that model is of our objectives in this study. For this purpose, literature and various studies are verified and a set of measures with regard to the purpose of the research was collected. Among the companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, 65 companies were selected as sample for the period 2009 to 2013 and were analyzed as a statistical sample. To analyze the data, first the data is collected and categorized in software EXCEL and after doing calculations were analyzed using MATLAB software.TThe results of this research showed that the particle swarm optimization has a fewer errors in the selection of optimal portfolio compared with Markowitz model. The most important suggestion for future research is to compare the particle swarm optimization with other models of optimization such as, colonial competition, meta-heuristic, arbitrage model and etc. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
158 - برآورد ارزش در معرض خطر مبتنی بر محدودیت بر ارزیابی عملکرد مدیریت پرتفوی فعال در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران
فریدون رهنمای رودپشتی شراره قندهاری -
Open Access Article
159 - Developing a Fuzzy Multibjective Model for Multiperiod Portfolio Optimazation Considering Average Value at Risk
Amir Shiri Ghehi Hosein Didehkhani kaveh Khalili Damghani parviz SaeediThe purpose of the present research is to provide a multi-period portfolio optimization model in a fuzzy credibility environment, aimed for end-of-period wealth maximization and risk minimization. The investor’s risk was measured using the Average Value at Risk (A MoreThe purpose of the present research is to provide a multi-period portfolio optimization model in a fuzzy credibility environment, aimed for end-of-period wealth maximization and risk minimization. The investor’s risk was measured using the Average Value at Risk (AVaR) as a coherent risk measure. The model is designed in such a way that, in addition to considering transaction costs, the investor will have the opportunity to allocate part of his wealth to a risk-free asset. In designing the model, in addition to the cardinality constraints, constraints such as the minimum “proportion entropy” (as the portfolio of diversification degree) and the expected returns of the portfolio in each period are considered. The results of the model running by MOPSO algorithm indicated that the model objectives in the optimum portfolios were better suited than those when the model was run with random weights. The results also indicated that an increase in the portfolio diversification degree reduced the amount of the final wealth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
160 - بهینهسازی سبد سرمایهگذاری با استفاده از الگوریتم چند هدفه ازدحام ذرات برای مدل احتمالی چند دورهای میانگین-نیمواریانس-چولگی
سیامک موشخیان امیرعباس نجفی -
Open Access Article
161 - A Survey of Long-Term Memory in the Digital Currency Index
Shima Alizadeh hossein safarzadehLong-term memory, also referred to as long-range dependence, explains the correlation structure of values of a time series at long intervals. According to the efficient market hypothesis, prices follow a randomized step process, so returns on assets can not be predicted MoreLong-term memory, also referred to as long-range dependence, explains the correlation structure of values of a time series at long intervals. According to the efficient market hypothesis, prices follow a randomized step process, so returns on assets can not be predicted based on past price changes. Long-term memory is a weak point of the business-market hypothesis. Long-term processes have important implications for asset yields and play a crucial role in time series analysis. This study examines the existence of long-term memory in the price index of crypto currencies equals $ 1 and lower for the period from September 1, 2015 to September 1, 2018. To estimate the parameter d, the OLS method is used in the EVIEWS software package. The ARFIMA model is used to test hypotheses. The results indicate that long-term memory is in the currencies of DIGIBYTE, Dodge Coin, EMER Coin, BITSHARES, MAIDSAFE COIN, XEM, Redd Coin, NXT, Verge and Ripple, and on the other hand, three currencies of Byte Coin, SIA Coin, STELLAR lacks long-term memory, and therefore these currencies are among the most efficient market products. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
162 - Effects of Macroeconomic Variables and market power on Banking Sector's Deposits (Bayesian Model Averaging Approach in Panel Data)
mahboubeh shakiba alireza Daghighiasli marjan damankeshideh majid fashari Ali Esmaeelzadeh MaghariMarket power specifies how firms in a market influence prices, and reveals the level of competition in the market. This paper investigated the impact of market power and macroeconomic variables effect on banking deposits in Iranian deposit money market using dynamic Bre MoreMarket power specifies how firms in a market influence prices, and reveals the level of competition in the market. This paper investigated the impact of market power and macroeconomic variables effect on banking deposits in Iranian deposit money market using dynamic Bresnahan-Lau’s and Bayesian model averaging approach for the 18 bank in the Iran industrial banking sector. Annual data for the period of 2006- 2016 has been collected from annual financial statements of Iranian banks, Statistical Centre of Iran, Monetary and Banking Research Institute of Iran and central bank of Iran. By applying BMA approach the main macroeconomic variables have been determined from 8 variables. The results of model estimation indicated that market power for its 18 Iranian banks were 0.58 and the macroeconomic variables of liquidity money has negative and other explanatory variables such as fixed assets, growth of GDP, first order lag of deposits, deposits rate and cross effect of GGDP with deposits rate have positive posterior average on banking sector's deposits during the period of study. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
163 - مقایسه استراتژی های خرید و فروش سهام در سرمایه گذاری بلند مدت به روشهای فیلتر، خرید ونگهداری و میانگین متحرک بازار
زهرا پورزمانی فرزانه حیدرپور محمدرضا محمدی -
Open Access Article
164 - Optimal Pairs Trading strategy under Statistical Variability of the Spread Process
Fatemeh Azizzadeh Nasrin EbadiThe appropriate investment and decision making about taking of correct long and short position needs proved strategies. In this research, pairs trading have been studied and a new non-parametric approach proposed based on Renko and Kagi construction which are two Japane MoreThe appropriate investment and decision making about taking of correct long and short position needs proved strategies. In this research, pairs trading have been studied and a new non-parametric approach proposed based on Renko and Kagi construction which are two Japanese charting indicators. The proposed approach exploits information about the variability of spread process and a constant long-run mean dose not find for spread process but trade towards it like other methods of pairs trading and the only needed assumption is remaining constant of statistical properties of the spread process volatility. In this research, profitability of proposed method have been proved theoretically mean-reverting process with stochastic volatility , then pairs trading have been performed based on this approach on selective data of Tehran stock exchange . The results of implementation show that used strategy obtain 52.91% per return in stock pair of KHTRAC and KHTOGHA, 33.645 per return in stock pair of KHMOHAREKEH and KHODRO for appropriate selection of H. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
165 - Travel Time derivative with Monte Carlo Method
hadi ganji zahraeiTime pricing is a tool for traffic management. Traffic management looks after increasing trip quality by reducing direct and indirect cost (wasting time, air pollution, noise pollution, accident cost and…). So, in this paper, at first, it is implemented financial MoreTime pricing is a tool for traffic management. Traffic management looks after increasing trip quality by reducing direct and indirect cost (wasting time, air pollution, noise pollution, accident cost and…). So, in this paper, at first, it is implemented financial derivatives for defining travel time derivatives. At the second stage, it is used Monte Carlo method for pricing traffic congestion. Since, derivative pricing fluctuated is an index for predicting deriver behavior in that time or at least their expectation about future traffic volume: low (high) price is likely to be light (heavy) congestion at that time and in the specific route. So, it is an intelligent method that indirectly dependent to drivers’ decision. In addition, in the usual method, the price is fixed, however, in the new method it is used market mechanism, so it is changed. Furthermore, in travel time derivative, two factors, traffic volume and diversion is implied in this forecasting. At the end, the introduced method is run for Karaj-Chalos route at 10 first of 31 July 2017. The derivative determined that the travel time will be 72 minutes. The result shows that, buying opportunity price is more than celling, so the travel time will be less than threshold time 72 minutes Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
166 - Investigating the Performance of Stochastic Processes in Modeling the Savings Deposits
saeid fallahpour Mohammad Jelodary Mamaqani mohammadreza Dehghani AmadabadOne of the most important actions on risk management is to obtain correct and rigorous information from the nature of the time series which are known as risk drivers. In this paper we introduce a model for interest free deposits using stochastic processes. To this end w MoreOne of the most important actions on risk management is to obtain correct and rigorous information from the nature of the time series which are known as risk drivers. In this paper we introduce a model for interest free deposits using stochastic processes. To this end we use the geometric Brownian motion, jump-diffusion, Cox- Ingersol-Ross and mean-reversion models. Also to develop the approach we decompose the volatility of the time series into deterministic and stochastic parts and model the stochastic part only. The deterministic part is the sum of trend line and periodic cycles. We observe that after estimation of parameters and model calibration, the results are consistent with initial expectations which are as follows: The performance of the models increases with separation of deterministic and stochastic parts. Although at the same time the phenomenon of mean reversion and heavy tail is approved, but, Cox-Ingersol-Ross model show a better behavior than jump-diffusion model. Finally the man-reversion and Jump-diffusion models have better performance than other models. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
167 - Interval Forcasting for Gold Price with hybrib model of ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network
Shapor Mohammadi Reza Raeie Mohammadreza RahimiPrice forecasting is one of the most challenging issues that the speculators, traders and brokers are faced with. On the other hand in interval analysis it is supposed that observations and estimations in the real world are not complete and reliable so to increase the a MorePrice forecasting is one of the most challenging issues that the speculators, traders and brokers are faced with. On the other hand in interval analysis it is supposed that observations and estimations in the real world are not complete and reliable so to increase the accuracy we should describe the data as the intervals that includes real quantities. Various methods are used in order to model the time series such as price. Autoregressive integration moving average (ARIMA), which is known as box-Jenkins method is one of the most commonly used models in forecasting of time series during the past three decades. But the main assumption is that there is a linear relationship between the values of the series therefore nonlinear relationships cannot be explained completely by using autoregressive integration moving average (ARIMA). Another method in time series forecasting is neural network which can estimate the various nonlinear relationship (called neural network universal estimating) but according to the literature, using network will have complicated results. Since it is difficult to understand the linear and nonlinear data pattern in reality, this idea will come to mind that the combination of linear and nonlinear models could increase the accuracy of forecasting. So in this research the linear part will be estimated by ARIMA and then the non-linear residuals will be modeled by neural network and finally the predicted result will be added to ARIMA in order to forecast the low, high and close price of gold .comparing the accuracy of the hybrid model to ARIMA and neural network by pair compared, Diebold-Mariano and Harvey-Newbold –Leybourn test and two criteria (MSE and MAE) showed that the hybrid model presented better performance. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
168 - When Behavioral Portfolio Theory meets mean-variance frontier
mohammad sajjad moghaddam Fereydon OhadiFinding the most optimize way to make a portfolio “ feasible “ has been ,and always will be a challenge and concern for those active in investment management industry. For several decades, Markowitz's (1952) Mean Variance Theory (MVT) has been considered as MoreFinding the most optimize way to make a portfolio “ feasible “ has been ,and always will be a challenge and concern for those active in investment management industry. For several decades, Markowitz's (1952) Mean Variance Theory (MVT) has been considered as the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory. The Behavioral Portfolio Theory (BPT) developed by Shefrin and Statman (2000) is often set against Markowitz's (1952) Mean Variance Theory (MVT). In this paper, we compare the asset allocations generated by BPT and MVT without restrictions. Using Tehran Securities Exchange stock prices from the TSE database for the 2012– 2017 period, A sample of 247 companies are listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange data for a period of 5 years was used for statistical analysis . stock prices contained in the TSE database to generate a possible asset allocations via bootstrap simulation.this paper is the study that empirically determines the BPT optimal portfolio.We show that Shefrin and Statman's (2000) optimal portfolio is Mean Variance (MV) efficient inmore than 70% of cases. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
169 - Determine the optimal portfolio weights var-stock approach And compare it with the Markowitz model
sayyedmohammadmahdi ahmadi hasan lotfi vali rajabiEvery investor is always looking for the investment portfolio that will bring him the most profit with the least risk. The standard deviation of an asset return is the amount of risk of that asset. In this study, the value-at-risk approach has been used as a measure of MoreEvery investor is always looking for the investment portfolio that will bring him the most profit with the least risk. The standard deviation of an asset return is the amount of risk of that asset. In this study, the value-at-risk approach has been used as a measure of risk in the formation of the optimal stock portfolio. By selecting a statistical sample consisting of seven companies operating on the Tehran Stock Exchange, first the variance-covariance matrix is extracted by the moving average weighted method (EWMA) and then the Markowitz model is calculated with the aim of reducing portfolio risk against an expected return level. Portfolio performance has been achieved. Then the value-at-risk limit is added to the efficient frontier chart, and then by analyzing the sensitivity of the value-at-risk value for different values of the level of confidence and the maximum risk accepted by the investor, we show that with the risk-value approach in forming the optimal portfolio Stocks may not change the limit of the Markowitz model, or be limited, or become a point, or even disappear. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
170 - Prediction of Wheat Biological Yield Using Geostatistics (Northern Darab)
abdollah setoodeh marzieh mokarram vahid baratiThe aim of the study is determination of the correlation between factors affecting in the wheat yield and preparing of yield mapping of wheat in north of Darab city. In order to determine the relationship between biological and grain yield with some of the important agr MoreThe aim of the study is determination of the correlation between factors affecting in the wheat yield and preparing of yield mapping of wheat in north of Darab city. In order to determine the relationship between biological and grain yield with some of the important agronomic traits 60 samples in the north of Darab city was investigated. Parameters such as plant height, seed weight, harvest index, tiller number, latitude and longitude for each of the samples was measured. The results show that grain weight has highest correlation with the biological yield (0.97**). In this study, also using the Kriging (Gaussian models, spherical, circular and exponential models) and average inverse distance (IDW) maps of the biological yield and grain weight was determined. The results of the interpolation show that kriging method (Gaussian model) with a minimum error (RMSE=0.98 for biologic yield and RMSE=0.97 for grain weight) was the best model for preparation of these parameters in the study area. Also the results of biologic yield map show that areas locating in the North West of the study area were the highest yield. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
171 - Comparison of grain yield and some related traits in maize hybrids (Zea mays L.) in Iran
Maryam Rahimi jahangirlo Saeid Soufizadeh Jaafar Kambouzia Eskandar Zand Morteza RezayiIn this study was evaluated different Maize cultivars including KSC706, KSC705, KSC704, KSC703, KSC647, MV527, KSC500, KSC403, KSC400, DC370, KSC260 and KSC201. Maize cultivars were sown in 2014 at the Research Institute of Animal Science and under potential conditions MoreIn this study was evaluated different Maize cultivars including KSC706, KSC705, KSC704, KSC703, KSC647, MV527, KSC500, KSC403, KSC400, DC370, KSC260 and KSC201. Maize cultivars were sown in 2014 at the Research Institute of Animal Science and under potential conditions including recommended planting date and density and apply the potential conditions (without stress) during the growing season and harvest each cultivar at full maturity stage. In each varieties was measured important traits as a grain, biological yield and traits related to ear, Harvest Index and dry weight. Analysis of variance showed a significant difference between treatments in all of characters. Comparison of means showed that KSC703, with 19.39 and 40.11 t/ ha of grain and biological yield was the best hybrids. Also KSC260 showed highest yield between 300, 400 and 500 maturity groups. The results of correlation analysis showed that grain yield had the most correlation with biological yield (0.94), ear length (0.90) and seed weight (0.89) (P≤ 0.01). It seems that the genetic improvement have been by increasing the traits such as biological yield, ear length, grain weight, stem weight and lose weight tassel. After converting each of studied traits to the normal distribution Z (standardize with statistical method), Cluster analysis to determine the distance between genotypes through the square Euclidian distance and Ward's method based on mean of all characters, hybrids was classified into five distinct groups that this classification did not match to FAO classification. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
172 - Germination and seedling emergence of green bean and maize in different soil depths and physical characteristics
Behnam Behtari Adel Dabbag Mohammadi Nasab Kazem Ghassemi Golezani Mohammad Reza ShakibaA field study was carried out to investigate the effects of four planting depths and three soil types with different physical characteristics on green bean (Phaseolus vulgaris Var. sunray) and maize (Zea mays L. Var. Amyla) seed germination and seedling emergence.The ai MoreA field study was carried out to investigate the effects of four planting depths and three soil types with different physical characteristics on green bean (Phaseolus vulgaris Var. sunray) and maize (Zea mays L. Var. Amyla) seed germination and seedling emergence.The aim of the experiments was to investigate the physical effects of the soil on seed ecology and emergence dynamics. The result revealed that germination inhibition was directly proportional to clay content and inversely proportional to sand content due to burial depth. Depth of fifty percent emergence inhibition (Di50%) were equal to 5.3 cm in clay soil for both green bean and maize, if this was for silty soil, respectively 5.4 and 2.7 cm. A significant linear regression between clay particle content and Di50% revealed that those soil components had opposite effects in terms of favoring or inhibiting depth mediated inhibition. Therefore, increasing soil clay contents increased inhibition of seedlings. The data also showed that the oxygen content in the surrounding soil of seeds can not be an important factor for seed germination differences, and its effect was insignificant. Increasing geometric mean decreased particle diameter soil inhibition. In conclusion, these experiments showed soil physical properties had a strong effect on buried-seed ecology and consequently on seed germination and seedling emergence. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
173 - Response of germination and seedling growth of Hyssop (Hyssopus officinalis) and Marguerite (Chrysanthemum superbum) medicinal plants to water stress
M.B. Amiri P. Rezvani Moghadam H.R. Ehiaei J. Falahi M. Aghvani Shajari In order to study the effects of water stress on germination characteristics and seedling growth of two medicinal plants, two experiments were conducted at physiology laboratory of Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad as a com More In order to study the effects of water stress on germination characteristics and seedling growth of two medicinal plants, two experiments were conducted at physiology laboratory of Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad as a completely randomized design with four replications. There were two types of medicinal plants; hyssop (Hyssopus officinalis) and marguerite (Chrysanthemum_superbum). Experimental treatments included five levels of water stress (0, -2, -4, -6 and -8 bar). Results showed that the effects of different levels of water stress were significant on all of the studied indices of the two plants. Germination percentages decreased and mean germination time increased by increasing water stress levels. Germination percentage was minimum (0%) in drought level of -6 bar, in the two studied plants. Root length of Hyssop increased and Marguerite decreased by increasing water stress levels, respectively. Plumule length had a decreasing trend in the two studied plants, but the amount of this decrease was less in hyssop. Moreover, the root to plumule length ratio increased in hyssop and marguerite by increasing drought stress levels. Also, root dry weight increased, plumule dry weight decreased and root to plumule dry weight ratio increased by increasing drought stress severity in the two studied medicinal plants. Totally, the results of this experiment showed that germination and seedling growth indices were superior in hyssop in water stress conditions. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
174 - Mode of some of barley quantitative inheritance traits in normal irrigation and terminal drought stress conditions using generation mean analysis
S. Nakhjavan M. R. Bihamta F. Darvish B. Sorkhi M. ZahraviIn order to study of heritability and gene action of some of quantitative traits of barley in two conditions, normal irrigation and terminal drought, cross was conducted between two genotypes (EM 79-4×1-BC-80628). In this cross EM 79-4 parent was sensitive to drou MoreIn order to study of heritability and gene action of some of quantitative traits of barley in two conditions, normal irrigation and terminal drought, cross was conducted between two genotypes (EM 79-4×1-BC-80628). In this cross EM 79-4 parent was sensitive to drought and the 1-BC-80628 parent was tolerant to drought. The parents with F1, F2, BC1, and BC2 generations produced from crosses were evaluated on field conditions using RCBD with 3 replications. This experiment was carried out in field of cereal breeding unit of Karaj Seed and Plant Improvement Institute during 2005-6 and 2006-7. In this study plant height, spike length, grain yield in plant , weight of 1000 grain ,harvest index, days to heading and days to physiological maturity were measured. Results indicated that mean of squares of generations for all the traits were significant therefore generation mean analysis for all traits was conducted. In normal irrigation conditions on heredity control for more traits except harvest index additive, dominance and epistasis effects were role, but in terminal drought conditions in heredity control for all traits additive, dominance and epistasis effects were rolled. The ranges of broad sense heritability on normal condition between 0.34 to 0.63 and narrow sense heritability between 0.25 to 0.53 but in terminal drought condition this ranges for broad and narrow sense heritability respectively between 0.48 to 0.77 and 0.29 to 0.62 were varied. Average numbers of gene in normal and terminal drought conditions were 1 to 7 and 1 to 3 genes respectively. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
175 - Examining the efficiency of optimization models of multi objective genetic algorithm and particle swarm algorithm under the risk criteria of conditional value at risk and mean smai variance in determining the optimal stock portfolio
Dariush Adinehvand Ebrahim Ali Razini Rahmani Mahmoud Khoddam Fereydoun Ohadi Elham Sadat HashemizadehObjective: The goal is to select an optimal portfolio of stocks by allocating capital among various investment opportunities in the stock market to achieve maximum return at a specified level of risk. This constitutes an efficient portfolio.Research Methodology: Attaini MoreObjective: The goal is to select an optimal portfolio of stocks by allocating capital among various investment opportunities in the stock market to achieve maximum return at a specified level of risk. This constitutes an efficient portfolio.Research Methodology: Attaining an efficient portfolio involves solving an optimization problem. There are numerous techniques and tools available to solve this issue. In this study, 15 stocks from companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange, including symbols such as Khapars, Khazamiya, Vepasar, Foulad, Akhabar, Kegel, Femli, Tapiko, Sepaha, Fazer, Fakhas, Shohbaran, Shefan, Qamro and Qathabat, were selected using cluster sampling. First, the daily returns of these stocks were calculated over a 5-year period from 2015 to 2020 (1183 days). The risk of the optimal investment portfolio was then calculated using the Mean-Semi Variance and Conditional Value at Risk models. These two criteria were compared using a classic solution method. Subsequently, the output data obtained from these calculations were compared using MATLAB software, employing the Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm under the Mean-Semi Variance risk criterion and the Genetic Algorithm under the Conditional Value at Risk criterion.Findings: The results of this study indicate that the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization method yields a higher portfolio return ratio compared to the Genetic Algorithm in the Mean-Semi Variance risk criterion.Originality / Value: This research utilizes multi-objective genetic algorithms and Particle Swarm Optimization, which are intelligent and novel algorithms, to minimize the objective function value using Conditional Value at Risk and Mean-Semi Variance criteria. These algorithms optimize the return and risk ratios of the stocks in the investment portfolio with the highest possible accuracy. Additionally, the efficiency comparison of these models using MATLAB software contributes an innovative aspect to this study. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
176 - تأثیر شش هفته تمرین پلایومتریک بالاتنه بر توان بیهوازی بالاتنه و عملکرد رکورد 25 متر کرال پشت پسران شناگر 10 ساله
مجتبی صادقی
Sanad
Sanad is a platform for managing Azad University publications
Links
Related Centers
Technical Support
Official pages
The rights to this website are owned by the Raimag Press Management System.
Copyright © 2021-2024