• List of Articles Futures

      • Open Access Article

        1 - Identification of the driving forces behind the future of the book publishing industry in Iran
        hamoon sharifi milani zahta boroumand
        Identification of the driving forces behind the future of the book publishing industry in Iran. The present study identified the most important factors affecting the future of the book publishing industry in Iran using the future studies approach. This was an applied st More
        Identification of the driving forces behind the future of the book publishing industry in Iran. The present study identified the most important factors affecting the future of the book publishing industry in Iran using the future studies approach. This was an applied study employing a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. Participants were 16 experts specialized in the publishing domain and achieved consensus over the 24 identified driving forces during two courses of implementation of the Delphi technique. The key future driving forces of the publishing industry in Iran were classified into six categories, with economic sanctions and the information and communication technology ranking the highest in terms of importance. Identification of the driving forces behind the future of the book publishing industry in Iran. The present study identified the most important factors affecting the future of the book publishing industry in Iran using the future studies approach. This was an applied study employing a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. Participants were 16 experts specialized in the publishing domain and achieved consensus over the 24 identified driving forces during two courses of implementation of the Delphi technique. The key future driving forces of the publishing industry in Iran were classified into six categories, with economic sanctions and the information and communication technology ranking the highest in terms of importance. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        2 - Investigating the ability to predict human resource excellence through futures study skills in ceramic tile companies of Yazd province
        Amirehsan Eshaghiyeh Hossien Eslami Hadi Hematian
        Background:Quality human resources are the most important resource of any company and leading industries,realizing this fact,have made an indescribable effort to make optimal use of this key resource to achieve their goals.Therefore,the present study was conducted with More
        Background:Quality human resources are the most important resource of any company and leading industries,realizing this fact,have made an indescribable effort to make optimal use of this key resource to achieve their goals.Therefore,the present study was conducted with the ability to predict human resource excellence through futures study skills in ceramic tile companies of Yazd province. Method:This research is applied in terms of purpose and is from a descriptive-correlational type.The statistical population of this study is the managers and personnel of ceramic tile companies of Yazd province,whose number is 22,000people and using Krejcie and Morgan table,at least384people were selected as a statistical sample and 390 questionnaires were collected based on an available sampling process,distribution, and data. Data collection was done by the field method and the collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire.In data analysis,the SPSS software was used to test the hypotheses and conceptual model of the research,and the SmartPLS was used for the validity and reliability of the questionnaire.Findings:The findings showed that the correlation coefficient between futures study skills and human resource excellence as well as other dimensions of futures study and human resource excellence is significant and future study skills have25.3%of the ability to predict the human resource excellence of ceramic tiles of Yazd province.Conclusion:The managers of ceramic tile companies can achieve human resource excellence based on the past work process to identify the current changes signals of possible situations that may occur in the future,as well as to shape the desired world of tomorrow. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        3 - Future Study of Investment in the Housing Industry in Iran Using Scenario Planning Approach and Cross-Impact Matrix
        Mohammad Reza Fathi Mohammad Hasan Maleki Vahid Rezvani Asl
        Housing sector is one of the  pioneer sectors of  every  economy  that  attention to  that moreover deep social and  cultural  influences and  making  jobs in building sector and  dependent sectors, by means of&nbsp More
        Housing sector is one of the  pioneer sectors of  every  economy  that  attention to  that moreover deep social and  cultural  influences and  making  jobs in building sector and  dependent sectors, by means of  influence on consuming expenditures and investment, effects strongly on gross domestic product changes and economical fluctuations. Also in recent years, this industry always has faced with splendor and stagnancy. so in this research, housing industry with regard to importance and it`s role in economical development and public welfare, with financial view investigated as Futures study. As identifying effective key factors on investment and future profitability of housing industry are important, this research with using ultra disciplinary of futures study intends to apply recognitional instruments and scenario writing, presents a clear view of future of Iran housing industry to programmers and investors. because of  this  research  is done  with  general  and comprehensive view  related to research variables, results of this research can be generalized to housing industry of country. in  this  research with studying subject literature and interview with experts of housing  industry, effective factors on research variables are identified and next, with using cross impact analysis approach, data entered to Mic-mac software and 4 effective key factors on future of investment and profitability are specified including economical sanctions, scale of government investment in housing sector, economical splendor and stagnancy, scale of access to  infrastructural networks that are selected among 40 effective factors. in next phase, for  writing scenarios, 4 effective  key factors  with specifying uncertainty states in questionnaire by experts, entered to Scenariowizard  software and the most consistent future forthcoming scenarios  of  housing   industry  specified . After identifying scenarios and consult experts, economical sanctions and scsle of government investment in housing sector selected for writing scenarios and with regards to their conditions, future of housing industry presented in the form of 4 scenarios. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        4 - Designing the suitable futures studies structure in Isfahan municipality
        Saeed Ebrahimi Zahra Ghatei Kalashami Masoud Hajbandeh Daryoush Moradi
        Identifying and analyzing the future is one of the basic needs of today’s organizations in order to survive in very competitive and unpredictable environment. Isfahan municipality is a key organization in urban development, so it needs to gain new skills for facin More
        Identifying and analyzing the future is one of the basic needs of today’s organizations in order to survive in very competitive and unpredictable environment. Isfahan municipality is a key organization in urban development, so it needs to gain new skills for facing rapid Changes in the future. The objectives of this research are to introduce the most suitable futures studies approaches for using in planning and urban management and to design organizational structure based on foresighting. The research method is descriptive-analytic. Information was collected based on documental analysis method. For reaching organizational structure based on futures studies, different approaches such as participative, strategic, and corporate were studied by expert panel.  The results reveal that corporate approach, is based on the assumption of implementation in an organization, is rooted in strategic notion, and emphasizes participation and exchange of views. Considering the characteristics mentioned, the corporate approach is more extensive than the other two approaches, and is therefore selected. Then due to characteristics of the corporate approach, the organizational structure of the Isfahan municipality futures studies group was suggested. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        5 - Examining the relationship between the quality of learning experiences and creativity with the development of student futures ability
        marzieh niazazari
        Background: One of the duties of universities was to empower students in a variety of fields, including understanding the future which could be influenced by the quality of their learning experiences and creativity. Aim: The purpose of this study was to investigate the More
        Background: One of the duties of universities was to empower students in a variety of fields, including understanding the future which could be influenced by the quality of their learning experiences and creativity. Aim: The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between the quality of learning experiences and creativity with the growth of future ability among students in Islamic Azad University in Sari. Methods: The research method was correlation. 370 persons were selected as a sample from 10527 students in the academic year of 2016-2017 according to Chocran formula.. The sampling was done randomly. Data was collected by standard the quality of Newman's learning experiences (1990), Torrance's creativity (1990), and the prospect of future studies by Parsa et al. (2011) questionnaires that their validity were confirmed by related experts. To assess the reliability of the questionnaires, Cronbach's alpha was calculated. Data were analyzed using K-S, Pearson and Regression tests. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        6 - The Role of Intellectual Capital on promoting the Performance of Knowledge-Based Companies with Futures studies approach: A Qualitative Study
        Masoumeh Mohammadabadi Kiumars Niazazari negin jabbary
        Futures Studies is the knowledge of intelligent analysis, design and establishment of future, an effort which analyzes resources and patterns to visualize the future and plan for it. The most important function of future studies is to create an image of the future to im More
        Futures Studies is the knowledge of intelligent analysis, design and establishment of future, an effort which analyzes resources and patterns to visualize the future and plan for it. The most important function of future studies is to create an image of the future to improve it. Knowledge-based companies, as the most tangible method of commercialization of the results of high tech research and producing a high added value, require a concept to provide a picture of the future for improvement and performance enhancements. As a result, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of intellectual capital on promoting the performance of knowledge-based companies with a Futures studies approach. Conducting the research with a qualitative method, for the in-depth study of the concepts concerned, the method of studying the documents and examining theoretical foundations as well as semi-structured interviews were used. Participants, 15 experts and specialists well-known in the knowledge-based companies of North Khorasan in the year 97 which were selected using purposeful sampling and snowball method to theoretical saturation boundary. In order to check the accuracy of the findings, the method of investigation by the members was used. To determine the reliability, a reliability method between two encoders was used. Data analysis was performed using inductive content analysis (6-step technique of Auerbach and Silverstein). Findings showed that with futuristic approach, the effect of intellectual capital on improving the performance of knowledge-based companies can be seen in two categories; inter-organizational effects (innovation and value creation, team building and decentralization, organizational learning, knowledge management, transformational leadership, meritocracy, technology acceptance) and external effects (networking, customer valuation and market orientation, branding and internationalization). This model can be used in decisions made to improve the performance of each company in accordance with the corporate strategy and culture. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        7 - Future Studies of Cultural Capital in the Iranian Family by Modeling Method
        peymaneh Asgari fatemeh farahany Mehrdad Navabakhsh reza salehiamiri
        Future studies are beyond prediction and mean the art of shaping the future, in the way we want the future. Today, technological change and, consequently, changes in other aspects of life, the increasing increase in the interdependence of nations and nations, the decent More
        Future studies are beyond prediction and mean the art of shaping the future, in the way we want the future. Today, technological change and, consequently, changes in other aspects of life, the increasing increase in the interdependence of nations and nations, the decentralization of existing societies and institutions, which has accelerated due to the development of information technology, Future studies of cultural capital in the family are debates that have a structural relationship with sustainable development. One of the basic needs of development in any society is the organization of the future developments of cultural capital. Due to the importance of the role of the family in Iran and the importance of the process of changing the cultural functions of the family, it is imperative that the family cultural capital be further studied and facilitate the path to sustainable cultural development. For this purpose, we have selected the dimensions for futures studies and are modeled according to their weight. The purpose of this paper is to explore the future of cultural capital of the family using the modeling method. For analyzing, PLS software has been used. The results of the research, after analyzing the structural factor, determined the weight and importance of measures in the conceptual model, with plans for their development, to achieve the desired future of cultural capital in the Iranian family. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        8 - Futures investment and financing of rail transportation industry (machinery and equipment)
        Mohammad Reza Fathi Mohammad Hassan Maleki Hossein Moghaddam
        Transportation  industry  is  considered  as  one of the most important  elements  of  national  economy  and because  of  possessing  basically  role, has abundant  effects  on  proces More
        Transportation  industry  is  considered  as  one of the most important  elements  of  national  economy  and because  of  possessing  basically  role, has abundant  effects  on  process  of  economic  growth  of  the  country. Thus, without  existence of  transportation network, installations and  lateral equipment and desired fleet, imagination  of  growth and  general  development  of country  sounds  impossible. in  this research with  applying  two  methods  of  futures study  including structural  analysis  and  scenario  planning  at  first   proceed  to  identifying  and  analyzing  key effective  factors  and  then  futures  scenarios  of  investing  and  financing  in  railway transportation  industry (machinery and equipment sector) will be wrote. First data of this research are gathered with using interview with managers and experts of railway industry, literature review and review antecedent researches and   analyzed in the form of expert questionnaire and using Mic-mac software. among 40 effective factors, 16 important  factors  are  identified  and with analyzing Mic-mac software, eventually 3 effective key factors  including  economic  sanctions, inflation  and  monetary  and   financial   policies specified. These factors used as basically foundations in writing scenarios. Set of probable conditions of these factors specified by experts and then 7 uncertain conditions considered for them and entered to Scenario wizard software. with analysis of Scenario wizard  software, 5 scenarios with high consistency  presented and  then  with  regard  to  experts viewpoints, 2  effective  key  factors  including  economic sanctions and monetary and financial  policies that have high  uncertainty  and  high  importance, identified as pivots of  writing future scenarios  and then 4 scenarios for future of investing and financing in railway  transportation  industry  presented.   Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        9 - Forecasting and Prioritizing Key Information and Communication Technologies in Publication for Voice and Audio Organization
        Saeid Ghorbani Siavash Salavatian Aamar Etemadnia
        Today, the process of technology development and its impact on mass media is very fast. Changes in information and communication technology (ICT) in human societies are such that the world today is rapidly becoming an information society. The purpose of this article is More
        Today, the process of technology development and its impact on mass media is very fast. Changes in information and communication technology (ICT) in human societies are such that the world today is rapidly becoming an information society. The purpose of this article is to identify and prioritize key information and communication technologies that will be applicable to content broadcasting for audiovisual. After identifying the technologies, using a key technology approach as one of the conventional methods of prioritization in the future research, with the help of attractiveness-feasibility matrix, a questionnaire was prepared and provided to 20 research experts for the feasibility and attractiveness of a number of technologies. Five to specify. Then the geometric mean of the numbers related to the feasibility and attractiveness of the weighting was then calculated and prioritized based on the technologies in question. Technologies such as hybrid television, social television, mobile interactive television, the fifth generation of mobile communications that bring together broadband and broadband platforms have been identified as high-tech and high-priority technologies. Most of these technologies do not restrict the user from using the communication device and allow the user to use them at any time and place. In addition, they provide a great opportunity for service providers to easily provide diverse services across different platforms to users and audiences. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        10 - The study of method evaluation and selection indicators in futures studies
        Mohammadreza ArabBafrani MohammadRahim Eivazi
        The methodology of Futures studies is weak because of its novelty, innovation and interdisciplinary character (influenced by other disciplines), and its multidisciplinary biology has led to a lack of proper coherence in its methodology. Futures studies researcher has ma More
        The methodology of Futures studies is weak because of its novelty, innovation and interdisciplinary character (influenced by other disciplines), and its multidisciplinary biology has led to a lack of proper coherence in its methodology. Futures studies researcher has many problems in selecting and evaluating methods appropriate to his research. Because of this serious weakness, research has been carried out to identify and introduce criteria for selecting and evaluating methods whose results are of great use to future studies researchers. However, because of the scope of these studies and the lack of a comprehensive look at them, the studies themselves have become plagued by confusion and confusion. In this study, it has been attempted to summarize the methodological indicators available in other researches and finally, with the help of experts, suggest indicators for future studies methods. The main method used in this study was library study, cross-sectional and expert interviews (in the form of questionnaires and open interviews). At the end, the methodology indicators of futures studies were extracted from different perspectives (methodological indicators, method selection indicators, indicators related to the issues facing the methods, and requirements for futures methodology requirements) and after thirteen questions, Indicators based on ratings have been introduced as the main indicators of evaluation and selection of future studies researchers in their research. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        11 - Future studies of the banking industry with a scenario approach
        farhad shamshiri Abdulhamid Ebrahimi Roohalla samieee Majid Ashrafi
        Background: The banking industry, as one of the most important sectors of the economy, has encouraged experts and economic experts to recognize the future of its volatility and stabilize it in the face of changes and to provide growth and development. Purpose: The purpo More
        Background: The banking industry, as one of the most important sectors of the economy, has encouraged experts and economic experts to recognize the future of its volatility and stabilize it in the face of changes and to provide growth and development. Purpose: The purpose of this study is to formulate scenarios of the banking industry with a future research approach. Method: The methodology of this research is based on future research scenario writing. Data collection tools are questionnaires, interviews, check-ins, and statistical and information networks. In this study, the statistical population of banking managers and specialists and university professors are familiar with the field of banking, which, based on the type of information required to conduct the research, non-probable judgmental sampling was used. Results: After formulating the initial question and identifying the main topic, forming the panel of experts, conducting exploratory interviews and identifying the driving forces, 64 variables were identified as the primary influencing factors of the banking industry by a 64*64 matrix and then provided with the help of Mic Mac Software , 12 key factors were extracted and categorized into 38 different situations. These situations were then presented to the experts for all key factors in a 38*38 matrix and analyzed in the Scenario Wizard software and four scenarios were extracted. Conclusion: Finally, 3 strong scenarios, 1 believable scenario and 8 weak ones were identified and classified into three groups: desirable, static and crisis and presented strategies for developing the banking industry. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        12 - Prediction of Customer Satisfaction level in after-sales service in automotive industry- Dealers in Saipayadak Co.
        Reyhaneh Varasteh Ahmad Ebrahimi
        10.30495/jmfr.2022.19571
        Background: Based on the competition and product variety in the automotive industry, auto makers require to achieve capability to respond properly to customers and their competitors. The special position of after-sales service in automotive industry and also maintain th More
        Background: Based on the competition and product variety in the automotive industry, auto makers require to achieve capability to respond properly to customers and their competitors. The special position of after-sales service in automotive industry and also maintain the existing customers and attract the new ones, makes the prediction and measurement of customer satisfaction as a must in this industry.Purpose: In this paper, using prediction approach in futures studies, has made us firstly to identify the influential factors on customer satisfaction. Then the customer satisfaction level has been predicted and analyzed in after-sales service of dealers in an automotive manufacturer.Methods: The statistical population includes the dealers of Saipayadak Co. The statistical sample includes 14486 of after-sales service dealers in the period of April 2017 to June 2017. Independent variables, after extracting through literature review, were finalized using brainstorming and fishbone diagrams. Statistical analysis and prediction was performed using stepwise regression method with coding in RStudio software.Findings: By using data mining method, the customer satisfaction score in after-sales service of dealers in Saipayadak Co. has been predicted with 80% accuracy.Conclusion: By knowing the customer satisfaction level, auto makers can define quality improvement projects and move toward to competitiveness desirably. Manuscript profile
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        13 - Explaining the Consequential Factors of Branding Pattern in the Freight Road Transport Industry with a Futuristic Studies Approach
        Parviz Turani Qazvini asghar moshabaki esfahani Hamidreza Saeed Nia Ali Badizadeh
        10.30495/jmfr.2022.21091
        Despite the great importance of branding on the growth and development of businesses in the national economy, and its development implications for various industries in the present and future, the statistical data indicate the low efficiency of the road transport indust More
        Despite the great importance of branding on the growth and development of businesses in the national economy, and its development implications for various industries in the present and future, the statistical data indicate the low efficiency of the road transport industry of this huge scientific capacity, commensurate with the capabilities. The aim of the present study is to explain the consequential factors of the branding model in the freight transportation industry in Iran for future research. This research has an exploratory-applied nature; With interpretive-structural paradigm; a mixed approach of qualitative data-based methods and quantitative method of structural equations is a futuristic approach to the analysis of processes; Using Max QD software and a small phase of structural equations using LISREL software, its statistical population is a combination of elites and experts in the field of freight transport, business management science and the science of the future of research. They were identified and selected by snowball method. Based on the findings of this study, the most important outcome factors of the branding model of businesses in the freight transport industry are: increasing innovation, providing added value, reducing complexity, compensating for price pressure, reducing road traffic, reducing risk, return on investment, increasing satisfaction Customers, differentiation, quantitative and qualitative growth of services, standardization of services, reduction of fuel consumption and, consequently, recognizing these factors and paying attention to them, help managers in strategic planning for the growth and development of businesses related to the freight transport industry and favorable future. . Manuscript profile
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        14 - Investigating the effect of factors and variables of international competitiveness for food industry companies in Iran with a futures research approach (Case study: Khuzestan food industry)
        hossein ghobeishavi abdolkhalegh gholami chenarestan olia Mohammad Haghighi
        10.30495/jmfr.2023.21993
        The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze the factors and variables which can influence on international competitiveness of food industry companies in Khuzestan province. This research is an applied, descriptive and correlational research, and the futures More
        The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze the factors and variables which can influence on international competitiveness of food industry companies in Khuzestan province. This research is an applied, descriptive and correlational research, and the futures research approach is performed for it. Research hypotheses have been achieved from a qualitative stage that uses theories and experiences of food industry experts. The data required to test the hypotheses were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire. The statistical population of this research consists of business, marketing and export managers of Khuzestan food industry companies, which are sufficiently familiar with market and industry conditions and specifications of foreign buyers. The number of these experts was 250. Using a Georgian and Morgan formula and cluster sampling method, a sample of 157 people has been selected. The validity of the questionnaire was verified by referring to a prototype and its reliability was evaluated using Cronbach's alpha. The research results indicate that 8 factors including the cost of products, product quality, to have advanced technology in company, the presence of expert human resource, efficient marketing management, to have famous brands in the company, high quality packaging, and easy access to high quality materials can have effect on creating an effective competitive advantage for food industry companies of Khuzestan Province. Also, according to these results, the effect of competitive advantage on international competitiveness of companies has been approved. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        15 - Future Studies of Cultural Services in Islamic Advertising and Communication Department of Astan Quds Razavi
        Ahmad Borumand Kakhki Hamed Davari امیرناصر اخوان
        In 1394, Research and Planning Management of Islamic Advertising and Communication Department of Astan Quds Razavi in ​​order to their inherent missions had defined a research project about the future of its own cultural services. In this regard, futures studies expert More
        In 1394, Research and Planning Management of Islamic Advertising and Communication Department of Astan Quds Razavi in ​​order to their inherent missions had defined a research project about the future of its own cultural services. In this regard, futures studies expert team was formed and they selected scenario development method (GBN) as a favorable futuristic planning. So library and field studies concluded by huge volumes of baseline studies, review of dozens of articles and administrative documents in addition to interviews. After recognizing key elements and driving forces, experts accredited these factors by their interactions in four specialized PEST panels, and potential defects were resolved. Then researchers identified two elements of "economic situation" and "cultural integrated management" as critical uncertainties and constructive scenario development axes based on the findings and Cross Impact Analysis. We have been considered level of integrated management (organizational and more broadly) and caused to describe total six inductive scenarios including preferable, probable and possible ones. Meanwhile guidance indicators and advices were described in order to make fields to shape better decisions and policies besed on Astan Quds Razavi vision. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        16 - Evolution of Foresight Global Patterns - a comparative study
        Ardeshir Sayah Mofazali Katayoun Jahangiri Mohammad Rahim Eivazi
        Dramatic changes in the world make organizations have encouraged more thoroughly contemplating about future. Lots of changes including globalization, technology progression, amplified complexity in decision-making, have compelled organizations to precisely identify and More
        Dramatic changes in the world make organizations have encouraged more thoroughly contemplating about future. Lots of changes including globalization, technology progression, amplified complexity in decision-making, have compelled organizations to precisely identify and prepare for further altered futures. Today, the term "foresight" has been widely applied and denote a sort of approaches that deliberate on thinking about the long-term future, strategic decision-making processes and intelligent estimations. Foresight concepts needs a systematic set of executable patterns. From the 1990s, the patterns are used with different approaches, they were renovated from casual to systematic state. These patterns which produced by scholars represent the verified processes that are confirmed in various futures studies' projects and try to guarantee the accuracy of the foresight outcomes. Despite various efforts in developing foresight patterns exist, the patterns has a wide range of diversity in form and content. The main objective of this paper is to identify how to classify global foresight patterns and recognize the evolutionary process of foresight patterns over time and subsequently changes on foresight patterns in past twenty years. In order to provide the most appropriate response to this question set of criteria have been identified and based on that current foresight patterns are compared with each other. The methodology used in this paper in terms of data collection and literature review is qualitative. In this article eleven global foresight patterns have been studied comparatively. Each of these models represents a way of thinking, looking to the future and planning for future. The results of these study illustrated in comparative tables and demonstrate that the main axis of the plain foresight patterns have been untouched, correspondingly the evolutionary process of adding key topics for ease of implementation and validate the results of the studies. Manuscript profile
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        17 - Foresight in Futures Studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for Challenges Towards Futures Studies in Iran
        Abdorrahim Gavahi
        foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (C More
        foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran,foresight in futures studies: Casual Layered Analysis (CLA) for challenges towards futures studies in Iran, Manuscript profile
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        18 - A review of theoretical foundation and key concepts of futures studies regards to development of implementation framework of Futures Studies
        Ardeshir Sayah Mofazali Alireza Asadi
        Futures studies as an academic field is a new era of social science that concerns a historical issue knowing future, in scientific approach. Futures Studies as a branch of social science has its own paradigms, theories and schools of thoughts that explains future dimens More
        Futures studies as an academic field is a new era of social science that concerns a historical issue knowing future, in scientific approach. Futures Studies as a branch of social science has its own paradigms, theories and schools of thoughts that explains future dimension. During decades many methods and tools has been developed to study trends, emerging issues and events by scholars and professionals. In this paper authors are reviewing the evolution of theoretical foundations of futures studies to explain the key concepts and basis of this era; Including the development of thinking about future of civilization and utopia since the 16th century to the present, differences between prediction and futures study, alternative futures versus single predefined future, dimensions of the future, path dependencies versus future breaking, tools and methods of futures studies. In light of this review, a conceptual framework has been developed to choose appropriate strategy for futures studies research. However without deep understanding and systematic methodology of futures research, applying tools could not meet the complicated needs of societies and organization in face of emerging issues in further new world. Manuscript profile
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        19 - Future Studies of Cultural Services in Islamic Advertising and Communication Department of Astan Quds Razavi
        Ahmad Borumand Hamed Davari Amirnaser Akhavan
        In 1394, Research and Planning Management of Islamic Advertising and Communication Department of Astan Quds Razavi in order to their inherent missions had defined a research project about the future of its own cultural services. In this regard, futures studies expert te More
        In 1394, Research and Planning Management of Islamic Advertising and Communication Department of Astan Quds Razavi in order to their inherent missions had defined a research project about the future of its own cultural services. In this regard, futures studies expert team was formed and they selected scenario development method (GBN) as a favorable futuristic planning. So library and field studies concluded by huge volumes of baseline studies, review of dozens of articles and administrative documents in addition to interviews. After recognizing key elements and driving forces, experts accredited these factors by their interactions in four specialized PEST panels, and potential defects were resolved. Then researchers identified two elements of "economic situation" and "cultural integrated management" as critical uncertainties and constructive scenario development axes based on the findings and Cross Impact Analysis. We have been considered level of integrated management (organizational and more broadly) and caused to describe total six inductive scenarios including preferable, probable and possible ones. Meanwhile guidance indicators and advices were described in order to make fields to shape better decisions and policies besed on Astan Quds Razavi vision. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        20 - Identify Plausible Scenarios Textile Industry
        Amirhussain Hassan-nejad Mohammadhassan Maleki
        This study was conducted to determine the future of textile industry of Qom. This is an applied and a survey research of descriptive groups, in terms of objective and data collection method, respectively. The statistical population is from textile industry experts and More
        This study was conducted to determine the future of textile industry of Qom. This is an applied and a survey research of descriptive groups, in terms of objective and data collection method, respectively. The statistical population is from textile industry experts and snowball sampling method was used to make a sample. Questionnaire was applied to collect the data. Scenario analysis method was employed to analyze the data for this study. To develop plausible scenarios, the techniques of crisis uncertainty would be used. The nature of the questions is considered based on the uncertainties in the field of textile industry in the country that have two limit states and there is uncertainty on the occurrence of one of these two. In order to analyze the questionnaires and use the results in writing scenarios, 3 indicators of specialty, consensus and significance were used. According to the indicators of consensus and the significance, two states of the "purchasing power by people" and "trade liberalization and the removal of tariffs" were selected. Due to both of uncertainties, four scenarios were developed, including textile of smiling, hope to grow, multi-stratified cemetery and window of life. Manuscript profile
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        21 - Futures Studies, Necessities of Education Systems
        Alireza Hemmati Mohamad Ali Goudarzi Ibrahim Hajiani
        The education System is potentially one of the most important social systems in the development of countries. One of the basic tasks of each education system is to provide a clear picture of a desired human, and The significance of future, is in fact, the most underlyin More
        The education System is potentially one of the most important social systems in the development of countries. One of the basic tasks of each education system is to provide a clear picture of a desired human, and The significance of future, is in fact, the most underlying reason for every education system. From primary to higher education, it necessarily has to be based on the future needs because the purpose of every education system is to provide a students with the required knowledge and skills for effective participation in the society not only today but also in the future. The purpose of this study is to explain problems of the education system. The education system, as one of the socio-economical system components, is defined for this purpose. Effective drivers in the development of this social system are defined respectively, and the purpose and also the importance of futures studies in the education system is defined as well. At the end, suggestions are provided regarding the impact and application of futures studies in the learning process. It is important to say that the term education in the present study means the education in all levels including primary and higher education. Manuscript profile
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        22 - Thinking about the distinctions and similarities between words and concepts in the field of futurology and to develop ways to overcome the confusion of words in the field
        Ehsan Geraei Gholamreza Heidari
        The futures is discover and create through language And the issue of terminology and the concepts and appropriate terminology has been a continuing challenge for the field of futurology. The aim of this study philological and conceptual confusion in the field of futu More
        The futures is discover and create through language And the issue of terminology and the concepts and appropriate terminology has been a continuing challenge for the field of futurology. The aim of this study philological and conceptual confusion in the field of futurology. This is a descriptive study using library information and critical analysis is done. One aspect of futurology studies, attention to the terminology of the field. In this study the effect of different geographical and cultural origins of the historical process of the formation of words realm of futurology is investigated. By analyzing the similarities and differences as well as futurology literature, general and particular relationships, and the realm of futurology and foresight activities is also provided. Finally, researchers have proposed the term futurology to call this science. This study tried to present an overview of the principles of linguistic philosophy and classification of definitions, a framework for thinking and reflection in dealing with futurology words and their definitions is available to researchers. Manuscript profile
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        23 - Jurisprudence-legal feasibility of using futures contracts in the international currency market
        Omid tavakolikia Mohsen Aghasi Syed AhmadAli Ali Hashemi
        10.30495/jlap.2023.22438
        A futures contract is an agreement to simultaneously buy and sell a certain amount of one currency against another currency at a certain time and at a certain rate in the future. In fact, the futures contract is a type of forward contract, with the difference that the b More
        A futures contract is an agreement to simultaneously buy and sell a certain amount of one currency against another currency at a certain time and at a certain rate in the future. In fact, the futures contract is a type of forward contract, with the difference that the buyer and the seller are not known to each other and only transact with each other through banks or brokers active in the currency market. The foreign exchange market is a virtual market where interested people around the world can buy and sell existing currencies through the Internet and selecting the desired broker. The distinguishing feature of this market compared to other markets is the limited selection of investment options, and the major forex transactions are carried out only on seven currencies and three currency pairs, and by examining the macroeconomic variables of the countries and the news available at the international level, you can choose your desired currency. Islamic jurists believe that it is possible to trade the currencies of different countries in cash or at different rates because the inherent price and purchasing power of the currencies of different countries are independent and the general agreement is about the inaccuracy of using futures contracts and currency advances in the state of delaying obligations and rights. There are parties to some time in the future, which in this article has been examined in jurisprudential and legal doubts related to the authenticity of these contracts. Manuscript profile
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        24 - The relationship between futures and cash market price of gold coins
        بهزاد فکاری سردهایی اکبر میرزاپور علی صیامی مصطفی کجوری
        AbstractThe aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between spot and futures priceof gold coins in Iran and how market information spread between these markets, andanalysis between changes in cash and futures price volatility is the daily gold coins. Dailyd More
        AbstractThe aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between spot and futures priceof gold coins in Iran and how market information spread between these markets, andanalysis between changes in cash and futures price volatility is the daily gold coins. Dailydata for the future price of gold coins collected in 2012 from Iran Mercantile Exchange,has been used. To examine the relationship between spot price and futures price of goldcoins multiple regression models, vector Autoregressive , GARCH and Granger causalitytest is used. The results showed that changes in futures and spot coin price does not havea significant relation in the VAR model and multiple regression , But the spot and futuresprice volatility have an effective relationship. Granger causality tests also showed there isa relation from the spot price to the futures price changes. But the spot price and futuresprice volatility results indicate that this is Duplex relationship between markets, there isinformation flow between the two markets as a perfect. Manuscript profile
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        25 - The relationship between risk Premium varies over time and spot prices: a case study Crude oil futures market
        Muosa Khoshkalam Rouhollah Mahdavi
        The various studies results Illustrate about the presence of time-varying risk premium in oil futures market. This paper investigates existence of risk premium, varying of its in time and its effectiveness on oil spot price using data for period 1986-2016. The research More
        The various studies results Illustrate about the presence of time-varying risk premium in oil futures market. This paper investigates existence of risk premium, varying of its in time and its effectiveness on oil spot price using data for period 1986-2016. The research method in present research is in term of purpose applied, in term of method descriptive-correlation and in term of data nature quantitative. For insight to goals, the paper use from GARCH method, Co-integration test and Vector Error Correction model (VECM). The results of estimations point to risk premium fixed in period 1986-2016, but risk premium is time varying in short period (2004-2016). Also, the results of Co-integration test and vector error correction model indicate to coefficient of risk premium be negative in the period 1986-2016, whereas this coefficient is positive in the period 2004-2016. The coefficients show to oil market estate in Contango position in the period 1986-2016 and normal backwardation in the period 2004-2016 Manuscript profile
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        26 - Jurisprudential Investigation on Forward and Futures Contracts
        Ehsan Aliakbari Baboukani Vahid Moqadam Reza Abbaspour
        One of the main concerns of investors in the capital market entry, is the fear of unpredictable increase or decrease of prices. In this situation, the new financial instruments such as futures contracts because of its effective role in risk management and risk control c More
        One of the main concerns of investors in the capital market entry, is the fear of unpredictable increase or decrease of prices. In this situation, the new financial instruments such as futures contracts because of its effective role in risk management and risk control can be useful in reducing these concerns. So it will increase the efficiency of capital markets. The writers in this paper want to explain the forward and futures contracts and its legal nature, then attempt to check its compliance with Islamic contracts and legal norms. And then, the Jurisprudential verdict of the forward and futures contracts, in the primary and secondary markets and alternative solutions is expressed. It seems that the best way to correct forward and futures contracts is the conciliation contract. Using of this contract has no problem in primary and secondary markets because it is an independence contract and is not merely for settlement of disputes and quarrels and is applicable in all situations. Manuscript profile
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        27 - Legal Analysis of Futures Contracts in Energy Exchange
        Alireza Mashhadizadeh
        Recently financial instruments designed and produced to oil market. The main objective of designing these instruments is to improve portfolio risk management and also increasing efficiency of capital markets for making more efficient the Stock Exchange Which the financi More
        Recently financial instruments designed and produced to oil market. The main objective of designing these instruments is to improve portfolio risk management and also increasing efficiency of capital markets for making more efficient the Stock Exchange Which the financial instruments called Derivatives. It is require to issue different securities with diverse risk and return. Issuing new securities it must be considered that dealing such securities should not be in conflict with Islamic regulations. In this article, content and mechanism of dealing Options, Futures contracts discussed first and answering to some criticisms raised in respect of this kind of transaction being such transactions as Ghrry Sale, being such transactions as a kali be kali (as named in Islamic Law) and being such transactions non-recognition of the sale right the Sale  may  be noted as this article s result.   Manuscript profile
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        28 - Identifying the components of management education based on the teachings of the Quran Karim in order to present a conceptual model (Foundation Data Theory)
        bahador shanbedi Mahboubeh Sadat Fadawi
        Introduction: Most scholars of education and psychology consider the first issue of today's man to be released from ignorance and cultural and educational poverty. Obviously, it is not possible to emancipate problems and achieve an acceptable level of progress, with the More
        Introduction: Most scholars of education and psychology consider the first issue of today's man to be released from ignorance and cultural and educational poverty. Obviously, it is not possible to emancipate problems and achieve an acceptable level of progress, with the exception of the idea of cultural management and proper and sustainable development (Fast al-Kalmam 2005, 99). Because without thinking about cultural management and proper education and investment in this field, Any attempt to escape from ignorance will be in vain. From the time that mankind came into existence and began its social life, the need for the management, supervision and organization of human societies seemed essential. On the other hand, man as an intrinsically social being, in the light of relationships with others, needs proper management education. As a result, one of the pillars of human social life is the management of education in the management of education, human resources are the most important component of each system's components. In culture and education, the only enduring source is man and his potential. Each mine, no matter how big and valuable it is, will eventually end. The only inexhaustible source is human culture and education. Through the teachings of culture and culture management, the rituals, beliefs, values and attitudes, behaviors, knowledge and social skills are sustained and transmitted from generation to generation (Delshad Tehrani, 1382, 173). Thus what today is the mind. The human being is engaged in the management of education, that is, the study of educational, cultural and managerial approaches. Purpose: The purpose of this research is to identify the components of management education from the perspective of the Quran, in order to provide a model for Iranian education.  Method: The research method was exploratory combination. In the qualitative part of the study, the method of analysis of the inductive loading method was used. The field of research in the field of qualities was the book of Quran Majid and the collection of Al-Mizan's commentary books. 145 verses and 133 open source were selected as the sample population. In the quantitative part, factor analysis and modeling of the structural equation were used. The statistical population included all the managers, educators of selected provinces, The clergy, and professors, were university professors working in five clusters in the north, south, east, west and center of the country in 94-96. The size of the statistical society was 310 people, according to the provincial capital staffing report. Sampling method, multistage cluster method and sample size were determined according to Cochran table of 162 people.  Results: In the qualitative part of the research, the obtained components consisted of 3 main themes of the 7 themes of the organizer and 18 themes that were based on the 98-item log. To assess the validity of this section, the relative coefficient of content validity was used and to determine the reliability of the Holstein coefficient, and in the small part after the factor analysis, 18 variables (basic themes) of the questionnaire based on the data extracted from 162 questionnaires, the KMO test index was 0.883 (Greater than 0.6) (which is indicative of the adequacy of the sampling rate), as well as the sig of the Bartlett test is less than 5%. To assess the validity of the log, the construct validity method and also its reliability were measured using Cronbach's alpha.   Conclusion: The results show that the questionnaire items, in total, three factors with total variance explained more than 72.2% able to measure (management education). This shows the validity of the proper structure of the questions in this area. According to the results, it is clear which of the two items is exactly what each item is. Accordingly, based on exploratory factor analysis, the research hypothesis (for examining or contributing to a deterministic-factor analysis) is obtained as follows: Research hypothesis : Based on Quran Majid verses, Emotional factors (EM), Organizational Future (EN), Organizational Performance (EZ), The Variable of the Present Degree of Management Education is explained  Manuscript profile
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        29 - Risk Management Futures Research in Cities with Emphasis on Earthquake Risk Vulnerability
        hassan noruzi bakhtiar ezatpanah reza valizadeh
        Introduction & Objective: The strategic importance of the city of Tabriz on the one hand and its high seismicity on the other hand, is the reason for paying attention to this research. The view that has existed so far in accident management and urban management has More
        Introduction & Objective: The strategic importance of the city of Tabriz on the one hand and its high seismicity on the other hand, is the reason for paying attention to this research. The view that has existed so far in accident management and urban management has been more of a confrontational view and risk reduction. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability of Tabriz metropolitan zone 8 in earthquake threat. Method: First, the most important studies conducted on futures studies and urban planning and design with regard to natural disasters and special studies in Tabriz were reviewed. Then the components and dimensions of urban vulnerability are prepared and then using the view of experts with Delphi method and also comparative studies, dimensions and final components are prepared and by analyzing questionnaires and conducting necessary studies and calculations the vulnerability of Tabriz metropolis in dimensions And various components were evaluated. Finally, while evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, threats and opportunities, the future strategies of Tabriz metropolitan area 8 were presented by swot method. Findings: Considering that the results of research suggest the exploitation and promotion of strengths and the optimal and maximum use of opportunities, so with this strategy, the current situation of the study area is acceptable, but we should not ignore the weaknesses and threats and Crisis and time management limited the occurrence of earthquakes. Rather, it expresses the need for optimal and optimal long-term research and planning. Conclusion: This study focuses on attracting and making optimal use of dynamic economy and appropriate employment, as well as investors in the field of tourism in the historical context, as well as benefiting from traditional religious, cultural and ideological identity in attracting stakeholders in the region to strengthen health and residential infrastructure. - Emphasizes welfare, resilience, education and culture in order to reduce vulnerability and improve the resilience of the region during an earthquake.   Manuscript profile
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        30 - Analysis of Factors Affecting Pattern Green City with Futures Study Approach in Mashhad
        Seyed Mostafa Hosseini Mohammad Rahim Rahnama Mohammad Ajzae Shokuhi Omid Ali Kharazmi
        10.22034/jest.2019.24055.3315
        Introduction: Today, in order to achieve sustainable urban development, future research and environmentally friendly models and approaches such as the green city must be used to improve the quality of life in the current conditions of urban environments, these environme More
        Introduction: Today, in order to achieve sustainable urban development, future research and environmentally friendly models and approaches such as the green city must be used to improve the quality of life in the current conditions of urban environments, these environments as a part of environmental protection. Therefore, in this research, an attempt has been made to identify the driving and key indicators with a future-oriented view of the green city approach in order to provide scenarios appropriate to the conditions of Mashhad metropolis in order to achieve a green city model in the future. Material and Methods: This research is applied in terms of purpose, which has been done by using descriptive-analytical method and using the matrix of interaction analysis in Mick Mac futures research software. Results: The results showed that the data filling index with two rotations is equal to 79.04%, which indicates the high impact of green city indicators on each other. The results also showed that the environmental participation index with a score of 68 has the highest rate of direct impact on other research indicators. Discussion and Conclusions:In general, the distribution of indicators in the direct-indirect dependence effect map showed that Mashhad metropolis is in a state of instability in terms of green city indicators. Manuscript profile
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        31 - Forecasting fluctuations of gold coin futures price on Iran mercantile exchange using parametric methods
        mohamad esmail fadainejad ali saleabadi gholamhosein asadi mohamad taghi vaziri hasan taati kashani
        One of the most important topics in financial markets in recent decades is the forcasting. The main purpose of this study is to forcast volatility future prices.In this research, four groups of symmetric GARCH (GARCH), exponential GARCH, FIGARCH and multi-regime GARCH m More
        One of the most important topics in financial markets in recent decades is the forcasting. The main purpose of this study is to forcast volatility future prices.In this research, four groups of symmetric GARCH (GARCH), exponential GARCH, FIGARCH and multi-regime GARCH models have been estimated and forecasted using normal distribution, t-distribution and GED distribution. According to the model error for forecasting fluctuations, the Markov Switching GARCH model (MS-E-GARCH) is reported to be the most efficient model to forecast the fluctuations in the gold coin futures market.The results of the estimation by the Markov Switching GARCH model (MS-E-GARCH) show that fluctuations of gold coin futures market are predictable; and as a result the gold coin futures prices do not have the weak form of efficiency in both low and high volatility settings and systematic profits could be achieved in this market. According to the results of the study, the accuracy of MS-E-GARCH model is higher for GED distribution in comparison with other models. Manuscript profile
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        32 - Exchange Rate Optimal Hedge Ratio by Gold Futures in Iran
        Rasool Sajad Adena Torosian
        In this article, the exchange rate (USD/RLS) minimum variance optimal hedge ratio by gold futures have been estimated and compared by different econometric approaches. For estimating this rate three domains, daily, two days and weekly domain for spot and futures prices More
        In this article, the exchange rate (USD/RLS) minimum variance optimal hedge ratio by gold futures have been estimated and compared by different econometric approaches. For estimating this rate three domains, daily, two days and weekly domain for spot and futures prices are used due to increase futures and spot correlation by increasing return domain. The static optimal hedge ratio estimated by OLS, corrected OLS and univariate GARCH models and dynamic one by CCC and DCC multivariate GARCH models. In term of in sample efficiency weekly return DCC and out of sample one, weekly return CCC, has the highest efficiency. In all models, the estimated rate of weekly returns is more efficient than the estimated rates of daily and two days return. Manuscript profile
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        33 - Feasibility of Currency hedging for exporter and importer companies by Using the Iran Mercantile Exchange Coin futures contract
        Ali Rostami Gholamreza Zomorodian Meysam Alimohammadi
        One of the most important applications of futures, hedging is that this application is also evident in the futures coins and various stakeholders can use it. In this paper, using time series dollar in free market and price of futures contracts coin during the period 139 More
        One of the most important applications of futures, hedging is that this application is also evident in the futures coins and various stakeholders can use it. In this paper, using time series dollar in free market and price of futures contracts coin during the period 1390 to 1393 to assess the risk of cross hedging exchange rate using futures contracts coin. First, the correlation between the exchange rate and price time series econometric model for future Coin vector regression (VAR) found. After the confirmation of residual autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity conditional on the VAR, the model BEEK (which is a multivariate GARCH model), conditional variance Currency and coins was estimated future prices and then by minimum variance hedge ratio was calculated for different maturities and the profit or loss resulting from currency risk hedging gain or loss resulting from exchange rate fluctuations were real. The results show that there is a high correlation with the price of the coin exchange rate (US Dollar), possibility of covering cross-currency risk using futures contracts provide for gold coins. Also, due to long-term memory between exchange rate fluctuations and price estimation of future coins hedge ratio through BEEK-GARCH model, and using this model include more than 70 percent to compensate losses from currency risk. Manuscript profile
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        34 - The effect of maturity date, trade volume and open interests on gold coin future price volatility
        Reza Raei Azam Honardoost Yunes Salmani Peyman Tataei
        In this research, the effect of maturity, trade volume and open interests on gold coin future price volatility in Iran commodity market have been studied since Dey 1387 to Shahrivar 1391.For doing that we can utilize two approach. In first approach, by considering 27 co More
        In this research, the effect of maturity, trade volume and open interests on gold coin future price volatility in Iran commodity market have been studied since Dey 1387 to Shahrivar 1391.For doing that we can utilize two approach. In first approach, by considering 27 contracts separately, we perceived that the effect of trade volume is meaningful and positive. As we expected, the effect of maturity and open interests are negative, but it’s not meaningful. In second approach, by using time series observation during sample period, the effect of trade volume and open interests on future price volatility have been studied. As a result, we find that the effect of trade volume and open interests on future price volatility is positive and negative respectively. Both of these effects are meaningful, but,the former is substantially more than the latter. Manuscript profile
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        35 - Examining the Relationship Between Spot Price of an Underlying Asset and Cost of Carry of Gold Coin Futures in Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME)
        Majid Shariatpanahi Hadi Mohammadzadegan Safoora Shahini
        An asset can be maintained for consumption or investment incentives. If a futures contract's market exist for an asset, the relationship between spot price of an underlying asset and cost of carry would be considered. Investigating this relationship is important in term More
        An asset can be maintained for consumption or investment incentives. If a futures contract's market exist for an asset, the relationship between spot price of an underlying asset and cost of carry would be considered. Investigating this relationship is important in term of being beneficial for arbitrager and hedger. This study aims to examine the relationship between these two variable by investigating spot price of gold coins futures contract's during 3 years. This test will be performed by using GARCH method and based on BCSS's group model (1996). The results indicate the negative relationship between spot price of gold coin and net cost of carry for majority of maturity. Manuscript profile
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        36 - Evaluation of Effectiveness of crack spread futures in crude oil price forecast
        Mohammad Alimoradi Solmaz Mohajeri
        In the oil markets, crack spread refers to the relationship between crude oil price and the price of its distillated product in refiners. Refiners are the major part of oil markets and are exposed to crack spread. Furthermore, oil customers are active participants in oi More
        In the oil markets, crack spread refers to the relationship between crude oil price and the price of its distillated product in refiners. Refiners are the major part of oil markets and are exposed to crack spread. Furthermore, oil customers are active participants in oil hedging markets and they are exposed to the Crack Spread. Investment funds mainly use crack spread for speculating and making profits in oil markets. Regarding the high volume of trading crack spread futures in oil markets, this question arises; whether futures of crack spread can be a good predictor of oil price movements or not. At first, we examine the relationship between futures and spot oil price by using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). This study shows that, there is causal relationship between crack spread futures and spot oil price in bull oil market, but in bear oil market the causal relationship becomes weaker. Ultimately, the effectiveness of crack spread futures is compared to forecasts of oil price. The results show that crack spread futures are good predictors of crude oil price. Manuscript profile
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        37 - The Impact of Crude Oil Price Returns on the Stock Index Returns A Case study: Tehran Stock Exchange & Istanbul Stock Exchange
        ebrahim abbasi samira asadian
        This study aims to investigate the relationship between crude oil price returns and stock market index returns of an exporter (Iran) and an importer (Turkey). Using daily data of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent crude oil spot prices, and one-four month futures pric More
        This study aims to investigate the relationship between crude oil price returns and stock market index returns of an exporter (Iran) and an importer (Turkey). Using daily data of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent crude oil spot prices, and one-four month futures prices for the WTI; Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX), Tehran Stock Exchange Dividend and Price Index (TEDPIX), the Dividend and Price Index for the Istanbul Stock Exchange gathered during the period of 2000-2010; the relationship is analyzed by two models of the Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) and the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC). The findings reveal that the DCC is predominant over the CCC for Turkey, which means there is a non-constant conditional correlation. In contrast, the findings show the predominance of CCC for Iran. Among the spot markets, stock market volatility is better defined by the Brent than the WTI. For futures markets of the WTI, a better relationship with longer maturity confirms the financial markets as being long-term. Finally, no evidence is found for one- or bi-directional volatility spillovers (interdependencies) between the markets. Manuscript profile
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        38 - Teaching methods based on the development of future studies in higher education in Iran: qualitative study
        Mehdi keshavarzi mohammad Hossein Yarmohammadian mohammad ali nadi
        10.30486/jsre.2018.539722
        One of the duties of universities is the empowerment of students in various fields, including the recognition of the future or future studies. The increased ability of student futures can be improved through education during the years of study, so one can claim that one More
        One of the duties of universities is the empowerment of students in various fields, including the recognition of the future or future studies. The increased ability of student futures can be improved through education during the years of study, so one can claim that one of the important variables that can be the ability of future student studies to influence students is the quality of teaching and learning methods. The purpose of this study was to design teaching methods based on the development of future studies in higher education, which was conducted using qualitative research methodology and using a strategy based on the data theory of the foundation. In this regard, semi-structured interviews with 14 faculty members in the field of curriculum and futures studies in universities of Fars province were carried out using purposeful approach and application of theoretical saturation criterion. To obtain the reliability and validity of the data from two Participants review method and review of non-participating experts in the research were used. The results of the data analysis were separated into separate concepts through three stages, open source coding, theoretical coding and selective coding with the aid of MAXQDA12 software, and 16 general categories were obtained. This article presents the findings of the study in the framework of the paradigmatic model including: causal conditions (4 categories), pivotal phenomenon (futures studies as a general approach to teaching), strategies (3 categories), fields (4 categories), interventional conditions (2 categories) and outcomes (2 categories). Manuscript profile
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        39 - Identifying a conceptual model for achieving urban sustainable regeneration from the perspective of a future studies
        najmeh izadfar Elham Izadfar
        In recent decades, the rapid growth of urbanization has brought about problems and complexities that the consequences of this phenomenon are the intensification of the rate of spatial-physical changes in cities and the inefficiency of urban textures. This trend of popul More
        In recent decades, the rapid growth of urbanization has brought about problems and complexities that the consequences of this phenomenon are the intensification of the rate of spatial-physical changes in cities and the inefficiency of urban textures. This trend of population increase, decline of social status, disorder in spatial-physical, economic and functional organization in urban neighborhoods that play a key role in urban life and decline; resulted in. In addition, dysfunctional tissues, as the smallest cell and the most important factor in the sustainability of urban life, play a very important role in the future of the city. Therefore, the need to pay attention to the future perspective of these tissues causes the stability of neighborhoods and ultimately the stability of the whole city. In recent years, the approach of sustainable urban regeneration with integrated economic, social, cultural, physical and environmental goals in order to improve the quality of life in dysfunctional context in connection with the whole city has entered the field of restoration and protection. Therefore, this study with the aim of developing a conceptual framework and presenting the dimensions and criteria of sustainable reproduction using futurology method tries to use a descriptive method and content analysis as well as reviewing theories related to reproduction and research done with this approach, a comprehensive view. Of its dimensions and criteria. Findings show that many theories have done so far, each of which has proposed principles and criteria for achieving sustainable regeneration, among which Peter Roberts theory has selected because of its comprehensiveness and relevance to the research goal.Extended AbstractIntroduction:The city is like a living thing that has undergone numerous physical, social, economic, environmental, etc. changes in its life cycle over time (Stewart, 2004: 63). Urban development in the late twentieth century was accompanied by the growth of the urbanization process without planning; This has led to the inefficiency of the city over time and the subsequent process of destruction and erosion of old structures that can no longer meet the current needs of society (Poorahmad. 2010: 76-80). The urban regeneration approach with an integrated, comprehensive and operational policy is a set of measures that create positive, lasting changes, create, improve and improve the quality of dysfunctional urban structures, and ultimately lead to the final solution of urban problems and achieve progress. Becomes sustainable, economic, physical, social and environmental (Izadi. 2010: 17). Since dysfunctional tissues are part of the urban subsystem, instability in these neighborhoods leads to urban instability. On the other hand, these neighborhoods, which are among the vital nuclei of the urban future, cannot be eliminated, so by planning, these vital nuclei can be made sustainable. The futures studies approach, as a methodological method, can clarify the perspective of these neighborhoods by considering the past and present situation. In this approach, we prepare for the unpredictable by avoiding surprise in the face of the onslaught of future changes, and it is a tool that gives man the opportunity to look at the future as he pleases (Pedram and Azgoli). 2009: 5).Research MethodsThe present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive and analytical in terms of method. In this study, by reviewing the theoretical foundations and views of thinkers and their experiences in relation to issues related to sustainable urban regeneration, tries to provide a conceptual model for achieving sustainable regeneration from a futuristic perspective in dysfunctional context. It is compiled on the method of futurology. Therefore, this research is in the field of qualitative-documentary research.FindingsSummary of regeneration theories; Represents the theoretical perspective of research and the link between concepts, theories and methods related to research and tries to use analytical approaches and methods. In the studies related to regeneration and its approaches (physical, social, economic, environmental) and the relationship with sustainability and its dimensions (social, economic, environmental), the key concepts of sustainable urban regeneration are: process and comprehensive approach with comprehensiveness. And integration, paying attention to the dimensions of sustainability (economic, social, environmental), paying attention to social and economic factors, paying attention to physical and environmental factors, increasing the role of public participation and stakeholders, improving the living standards of citizens and paying attention to urban spaces.According to the theory of Peter Roberts, Sustainable urban regeneration is inherently an interventionist activity. When traditional forms of intervention are applied, the acceptance of a new intervention to avoid past economic mistakes and failures becomes increasingly desirable for everyone. This theory is interested in organizational movement in the field of urban change management. From Roberts' point of view, regeneration can be viewed from the following angles:- as an interventionist activity;- As an activity that involves various sectors from government to private and public;- As an activity that has the ability to make fundamental changes in its organizational structure, to be able to react to economic, social, environmental and political changes;- As a way to mobilize collective efforts and pave the way for agreeing on appropriate solutions;- Defined as a way to determine policies and activities designed to improve the conditions of urban areas and develop the necessary organizational structures for support to achieve the goals.ConclusionIn the final summary of the theoretical foundations of the research, urban regeneration with different policies and approaches such as urban regeneration is body-based, culture-based, economics-based and conservation-based. Finally, with the introduction of the paradigm of sustainability and the concepts of sustainable development, the final approach called urban regeneration with a focus on sustainable development (sustainable urban regeneration) has entered the field of action. Inefficient tissues is involving by numerous problems over time, while numerous regeneration projects have been undertaken, but the number of dysfunctional zones has not only not decreased but also increased. Therefore, in this study, the selected approach is sustainable urban regeneration using Peter Roberts’s theory in four physical, social, economic and environmental dimensions. The reason for choosing this theory is due to the comprehensiveness of this theory compared to other theories. In fact, Peter Roberts' theory is a comprehensive and multifaceted approach to improving the quality of urban life with three main components of sustainability, namely the environment, society and the economy in order to improve the quality of life. This study with a new perspective using the approach of sustainable urban regeneration, which is the latest comprehensive and recent approach, seeks to identify the factors and processes affecting the future of sustainable regeneration of dysfunctional tissue. Achieve sustainable regeneration scenarios for that texture. Therefore, the findings of this study and what was obtained from the existing theories about sustainable urban regeneration is to pay attention to the dysfunctional urban context with a new approach to sustainable urban regeneration that can in addition to stabilizing and improving economic, social, physical and biological conditions. Inefficient tissue environment also increases the sustainability of metropolitan areas. In this research, the perspective of regeneration is stable. In other words, if in metropolitan areas, four dimensions of sustainable regeneration are considered together, they can actually lead the whole city towards sustainability. Otherwise, without considering these four dimensions together, we will see the continuation of the unstable state of the present time, which has a beautiful shape but is worn out and inefficient from within. In order to achieve a sustainable regeneration approach using Futures Studies method, a conceptual model of research has presented. In future researches, based on the presented conceptual model, the index and then the item can be defined and using the questionnaire technique, to evaluate and measure sustainable urban regeneration in the future horizon of the dysfunctional context of a specific study area. Manuscript profile
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        40 - Identifying and analysis of key factors affecting the development of tourism in the urban spaces of Tehran with a future research approach
        ali shamsoddini Mohammadreza Ghaedi Davood Jamini
        10.30495/juepd.2023.1986275.1195
        Today, the tourism industry is considered as one of the most important and main sources of sustainable income in most developed and developing countries, therefore, policy making, management and planning for the development of this industry in the present and future is More
        Today, the tourism industry is considered as one of the most important and main sources of sustainable income in most developed and developing countries, therefore, policy making, management and planning for the development of this industry in the present and future is one of the most important concerns of managers. and officials related to the field of tourism. One of the most important actions in the direction of the development of the tourism industry in urban areas is to identify the factors affecting the development of the tourism industry, which can have a significant impact on the prosperity of this industry. Therefore, the aim of this article is to identify and analyse the key drivers affecting the development of tourism in Tehran metropolis. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method of work. To collect the required data and information, library-documentary and field studies (questionnaire distribution) were used and for data analyse used MicMac software. The statistical population of the study consists of all experts in the field of tourism development in the metropolis of Tehran Using the snowball sample size selection method, Finally, 30 experts were selected as the sample size. Findings show that a total of 28 factors affect the development of tourism in Tehran the extent of this effect is from strong to weak. The results indicate that human factors in this metropolis have the greatest impact on the development of urban tourism and These factors include the development of infrastructure related to domestic and foreign tourism, Accommodation and welfare facilities, security, Historical monuments and facilities related to medical services.Extended AbstractIntroduction:      Today, tourism is a global and social dynamic phenomenon that has its own complexities; A phenomenon that takes different forms in different times and places with a hidden mechanism, and for this reason, it has completely different effects on human societies. The development of the tourism industry has benefits such as job creation, transportation optimization, increasing the income of local residents and supporting cultural and natural heritage. But its development requires sufficient knowledge and understanding of economic, social and cultural issues and factors. Tourism is a clean activity that can be effective in preserving nature for future generations and helps developing countries in solving problems such as unemployment and poverty by stimulating the potential of these countries. Due to its nature, this industry is a complex and mixed activity and requires the participation of various and numerous sectors of the society, and it also leaves extensive positive and negative effects at different levels. Cities are one of the most important residential destinations for tourists, and urban tourism is a type of tourism where citizens interested in cultural, historical, religious and natural attractions spend part of their free time in these places. In recent decades, the growth and development of the tourism industry and its adoption as one of the major economic activities by developed and developing countries and the competition of major tourist destinations in order to attract tourists have prompted planners to increase the income from Tourism activities should pay attention to two important categories: first, increasing the satisfaction of tourists and improving the pleasure and quality of the tourism experience, and second, trying to protect the interests of the host communities.Due to the accumulation of social infrastructure and civil institutions, cities have the ability to attract domestic and foreign tourists, and therefore they are the destination of many tourists. According to MasterCard's report in 2015, the top ten tourist-friendly cities in the world were: London, Bangkok, Paris, Dubai, New York, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Hong Kong and Seoul, which attracted a total of more than 133 million tourists. It is also noteworthy that seven Asian cities are among the top ten tourist cities in the world.Methodology:    This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method of work. To collect the required data and information, library-documentary and field studies (questionnaire distribution) were used and for data analyse used MicMac software. The statistical population of the study consists of all experts in the field of tourism development in the metropolis of Tehran Using the snowball sample size selection method, Finally, 30 experts were selected as the sample size. Results and discussion:   Findings show that a total of 28 factors affect the development of tourism in Tehran the extent of this effect is from strong to weak. The results indicate that human factors in this metropolis have the greatest impact on the development of urban tourism and These factors include the development of infrastructure related to domestic and foreign tourism, Accommodation and welfare facilities, security, Historical monuments and facilities related to medical services.Conclusion:    Urban tourism is one of the sustainable sources of income for cities, and urban management with medium-term and long-term planning can make the most of this industry. The development of urban tourism is influenced by various factors, some of which are human and others are natural. The results of the present research, which was conducted with the aim of identifying the key factors affecting the development of tourism in the metropolis of Tehran, indicate that human factors in this metropolis have the greatest influence on the development of urban tourism, and these factors include the development of infrastructure related to domestic and foreign tourism, facilities accommodation and welfare, security, historical monuments and facilities related to medical services. Considering the dependence of these factors, Tehran metropolis can play a role as one of the most important destinations for medical tourists and historical tourists.Urban management policies and programs are among the most important factors that affect all factors of tourism development in Tehran metropolis, as urban management can provide other related factors such as security and cooperation of the private sector through the participation of citizens in tourism activities. Considering the geographical location and also being the capital city of Tehran, the influencing factors on its tourism development are more than other cities in the country and reciprocally, the development of urban tourism in Tehran can also affect the development of tourism in other places in the country. Manuscript profile
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        41 - The Relationship Between Non-Transparent Financial Reporting and Risk Stock Futures Fall Due to the Size and Performance
        Saeid Khalajestani Alireza Farshidpour
        10.22034/amfa.2017.531318
        Manuscript profile
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        42 - Futurology of Multi-Criteria Decision Making Techniques Using Philosophical Assumptions of Paradigms in Scenario Writing
        Mehdi Roghani Mahmoud Modiri Kiamars Fathi Hafshjani AbuTurab Alirezaei
        10.30495/jsm.2021.678899
        Manuscript profile
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        43 - Documentary Study of Futures Studies Articles in the Field of Education
        Robab Rahmati Amir karimi
        10.30495/ee.2022.1948659.1056
            Futures research in education is one of the new dimensions of this science in the current world that has been considered by researchers in this field and research in this area is increasing gradually. Therefore, this article firstly aims to investigat More
            Futures research in education is one of the new dimensions of this science in the current world that has been considered by researchers in this field and research in this area is increasing gradually. Therefore, this article firstly aims to investigate the evolution of published articles in the field of futures studies in Iranian education and, secondly to identify new directions in research for the development of this science.The present study is a review on the basis of which Noormags databases, Comprehensive Humanities Portal, Jihad Daneshgahi Scientific Information Center database, Civilica, Elmnet, Magiran, etc. were examined using keywords of futures research in curriculum, schools, teaching, education, distance education, books and educational documents. All published articles from 2011 to 2021 were reviewed and analyzed. After studying and evaluating the content of the articles, the research gaps and the areas of interest of the articles were reviewed and analyzed.indicate that the main topics studied in recent decade articles include the document of fundamental change in education and the curriculum and the qualitative method was the most frequent. Research proposals also focused on futures research in online classrooms, international classrooms, educational robots, and sustainable education. The neglected areas can be considered by researchers for new research topics.   Manuscript profile
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        44 - Forecasting the exchange rate using futures studies methods and examining the effect of currency fluctuations on the performance of companies: A case study of Iran Tobacco Company
        Alireza Fathinia Ali Badizadeh
        Exchange rates always have a high priority and attractiveness in society, especially among companies. Different methods are used to predict the exchange rate, among which structural methods as methods of fundamental analysis, a little precision in advance. They have an More
        Exchange rates always have a high priority and attractiveness in society, especially among companies. Different methods are used to predict the exchange rate, among which structural methods as methods of fundamental analysis, a little precision in advance. They have an accurate forecast of the exchange rate, but they are very useful as a long-term perspective and illuminate the movement of the exchange rate. Technical compensation can be used to compensate for the shortcomings of these methods. Using futures research techniques, in addition to covering the study gap of futures research techniques in forecasting exchange rates, errors due to quantitative methods have been minimized so that companies are prepared for the occurrence of various situations. In the final part of the article, the effect of currency fluctuations on the performance indicators of the tobacco company during the last three years is examined. The results of the study indicate that currency fluctuations have the first and greatest impact on the implementation of development projects and also sudden economic shocks are not immediately reflected in the performance of companies and due to the presence of shock absorbers such as inventory in Warehousing, borrowing purchases and long-term debt creation, over time, gradually affect and weaken the company's performance. Manuscript profile
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        45 - Implementation of Integrated Management on increasing the security and safety of urban public spaces: Case Study Tabriz City
        Reza Saadatpoor Bshir Beygbabayie Karim Hosseinzadeh Dalir
        10.30495/jss.2021.1937340.1368
        The expansion of urbanization, followed by the specific problems of urban life, has made it increasingly necessary for the city administration to pay attention to useful strategies and solutions to optimize the lives of citizens. Urban management is intertwined with the More
        The expansion of urbanization, followed by the specific problems of urban life, has made it increasingly necessary for the city administration to pay attention to useful strategies and solutions to optimize the lives of citizens. Urban management is intertwined with the daily lives of citizens. Any decision made about the city will have a direct or indirect financial and psychological impact on citizens. The present study examines and studies the performance of integrated city management on social security and welfare with the same perspective. For this purpose, 43 indicators have been designed in three dimensions (integrated management, security and social welfare). The results show that there is a significant relationship between integrated management and security and welfare at the level of sig = 0. Also, the performance of indicators indicating 10 factors (existence of coordination between executive organizations in providing better urban services, paving the way for citizens to invest in urban development, creating sustainable urban revenue sources and not relying on traditional revenue sources such as tolls and density sales, facilitating administrative processes - Life, reduction of vulnerable urban spaces, adaptation of uses, improvement of public transportation services, responsibility, employment, urban services) have been key. Also, the results of scenario writing show 4 strong scenarios, 780 weak scenarios, and 21 possible scenarios, which among the possible scenarios, the desired situation shows the highest probability of realization compared to othersituations. Manuscript profile
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        46 - Evaluation of vital drivers affecting the quality of urban life with a Futures studies approach in metropolitan areas of Iran (Case study: Tabriz metropolis)
        Farnaz Entesari Dariush Sattar Zadeh LIDA BALILAN AKBAR ABDOLAHZADEH TARAF
        10.30495/jss.2022.1946793.1418
        Improving the quality of life is one of the most important goals of different governments around the world. Quality of life studies can help identify problem areas, causes of public dissatisfaction, citizens' priorities in life, the impact of demographic social factors More
        Improving the quality of life is one of the most important goals of different governments around the world. Quality of life studies can help identify problem areas, causes of public dissatisfaction, citizens' priorities in life, the impact of demographic social factors on quality of life and monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of quality strategies and policies in the field of quality of life. Contribute to the quality of life. In this regard, this article has been prepared with the aim of evaluating and discovering the vital factors and drivers affecting the quality of life in the city of Tabriz. The research method is applied in nature and is a descriptive-analytical research in terms of method. The work process consists of two basic stages of identifying and selecting effective criteria and discovering vital drivers among these indicators. In the first stage, using effective theoretical studies and using the Delphi method, effective indicators are identified and in the next stage, using Critical drivers affecting the quality of life in the city of Tabriz have been identified and discovered through structural analysis (cross-impact analysis) and using Mick Mac software. The research results show that among the 55 variables selected in the first stage; 18 variables (the most important of which are security, marginalization, air pollution, green and public spaces, public transportation, social and spatial justice, visual order and building density, etc.) play the most important role as vital drivers They were effective in the quality of life of Tabriz metropolis. Among these, the security index was selected as the most key index with a score of 1334. In general, the selected drivers are a combination of social, economic and physical indicators, but due to the special conditions of Tabriz metropolis, physical indicators plays a more colorful role among the drivers have. Manuscript profile
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        47 - The international future order scenario in the years leading to 2030
        ali asghar naeimi amirhoshang mirkooshesh ali mohammadzadeh
        From the past, predicting the future and that the global system will be in accordance with its various variables, both the side and the other, and the political actors and the governing authorities in order to supply national interests and safeguard and protect their in More
        From the past, predicting the future and that the global system will be in accordance with its various variables, both the side and the other, and the political actors and the governing authorities in order to supply national interests and safeguard and protect their independence and territorial integrity, as well as a concern and issue. Therefore, actors of the international arena, which are the same political countries, compete with other actors in order to redress their citizens ' rights, and pursue unwritten conflicts. Therefore, due to the efforts of some effective activists, including China, Russia and the European Union to form the governing order of the international arena, or to change and transform it, have a writer with a multi-scenario design, the future of international order in the years leading to 2030 using scenario-oriented approach in the theoretical framework of the idea of the cause of mining. Therefore, it can be predicted that, in addition to the growing economic, military, political and diplomatic growth of China, alongside the Russian offensive approach and the increasing nationalism of the European Union, at the end of the Third Decade of the twenty-one ad we will not only see the stresses and changes in international order, but also the ruling system of its current form and the Monopolator towards a single - Multipolar system with us and a few Influential focus including China, Russia and the European Union will redirect. Manuscript profile
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        48 - Presenting a model for increasing the Environmental Resilience of Kanarak city against Floods Caused by Tropical Storms with an emphasis on Futures Studies
        Ebrahim Forozan Mehr azadeh arbabi sabzevari Fatemeh Adibi Saadinejad
        Today, the Resilience of cities against natural Hazards has become one of the important topics in Urban Management. On the other hand, paying attention to this issue from the point of view of future research has made it easier to plan to improve the future situation, . More
        Today, the Resilience of cities against natural Hazards has become one of the important topics in Urban Management. On the other hand, paying attention to this issue from the point of view of future research has made it easier to plan to improve the future situation, . The statistical population of this research included relevant experts and elites, who according to the objectives of the research and to achieve the desired model with a future research approach through interviews with elites and experts and using a non-random purposeful sampling method (in a predetermined manner) done), and finally the number of 15 people was obtained. In order to identify the key drivers, structural analysis method (interaction effects) in the form of MICMAC software was also used for scenario writing using Scenario Wizard software. The findings of the research showed that the drivers of "Surface Water Collection Channel" will have the most influence through their alternative futures (probable state) on other drivers in determining the futures, and the drivers of "Changing the Structure of Organizations" Based on the Relationship of Alternative futures, it has received the most influence from other alternative futures. Also, the drivers of Flood Zoning Map, "Early Warning System of Natural Hazards and (GIS) and It has been Alternative futures of that part Intermittent propellants. Manuscript profile
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        49 - Comparison and analysis of stock futures return response to non-systematic risk torque measurement models(comparative prediction with neural network
        roqaye talebi
        Abstract The mean and variance of stock returns alone are not sufficient to describe the distribution of returns. , paying attention to higher torques such as skewness and kurtosisas a risk index instead of variance leads to more accurate results. Therefore, due to stu More
        Abstract The mean and variance of stock returns alone are not sufficient to describe the distribution of returns. , paying attention to higher torques such as skewness and kurtosisas a risk index instead of variance leads to more accurate results. Therefore, due to study contradictions, the study of stock returns reaction to models for measuring non-systematic risk moments was significant. For this purpose, 152 companies were selected( In the realm of time between 2014to 2021 ) as a statistical sample from the companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange based on the systematic removal method (CAPM & FF3). Also, by determining the superior regression model, the power of the superior regression model was compared with the neural network model. results showed that by increasing the unsystematic risk torques calculated with the capital asset pricing model and the Fama and French tree-factor model reduce future stock returns; These results can be justified in line with the concepts of capital market efficiency theory.Other results indicate that the difference in expected non-systematic risk calculated with CAPM and FF3 models is significant. Therefore, the strength of the expected non-systematic risk torques calculated by the capital asset pricing model is less than the Fama and French three-factor model. By comparing the neural network model coefficient and linear regression, it can be said that the neural network-based model has a better performance in predicting future stock returns based on non-systematic risk moments than linear regression. Manuscript profile
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        50 - Identifying and Analyzing the Effective Key Propulsion on the Risk-taking Capacity of Investors with Futures Studies Approach
        seyed najibollah shanaei Ali Zabihi Mohammadreza shoorvarzi
        To start a successful investment, the best approach is for investors,in addition to financial literacy and investment knowledge, to have sufficient information about their psychological and personality characteristics as an investor in the capital market.These dimension More
        To start a successful investment, the best approach is for investors,in addition to financial literacy and investment knowledge, to have sufficient information about their psychological and personality characteristics as an investor in the capital market.These dimensions together,explain the risk-taking capacity of investors. The current research, with a futures studies approach.identifies the most important factors affecting the risk-taking capacity of investors and examines the extent and manner of their influence on each other.This research is applied in terms of purpose, and in terms of method, it is a combination of documentary and survey methods, and in terms of nature, it is based on the new methods of futures studies, analysis and exploration, which was carried out by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. In order to collect data in the qualitative part, semi-structured interviews were used. The interviewees were experts in the field of capital market and were selected purposefully. In the second stage, quantitative data was collected and analyzed by examining the sources and background of the research and categorized into 29 categories. The analysis of the MICMAC results shows that among the 29 extracted factors,four categories of Micro and Macro economics conditions, Investor's experience, Personal futures studies, and the investor's knowledge condition were determined as the factors with the most direct and indirect effects,respectively.Also,seven categories of Micro and Macro economics conditions,demographic factors, investor's knowledge conditions, investor's experience, investor's cultural conditions,Social individual factors and political conditions were introduced as key drivers in determining the risk-taking capacity of investors. Manuscript profile
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        51 - Futures Studies of Gas Industry in Iran based on Fuzzy MCDM Methods and Critical Uncertainty Approach
        Mohammad Reza Fathi Abolfazl Khosravi Somayeh Razi Moheb Saraj Amirhossein Behrooz
        10.30495/fomj.2023.1990204.1101
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        52 - Driving forces of the development of the parties in the Islamic Republic of Iran
        Mohammad Aryanmanesh HAKEM Ghasemi, Ghrban-Ali Ghorbanzadeh Savar
        10.30495/pir.2023.1972024.3572
        Political parties in Iran are carriers of socio-political characteristics and historical background, which, in an unwanted combination, have hindered its realization. Although there have been many theoretical studies about the characteristics and obstacles of the party More
        Political parties in Iran are carriers of socio-political characteristics and historical background, which, in an unwanted combination, have hindered its realization. Although there have been many theoretical studies about the characteristics and obstacles of the party system in Iran, none has been done so far about development drivers based on different variables in the four constructions. Given this lack, the basic question of this article is: What are the driving forces behind the development of political parties in the Islamic republic of Iran? The hypothesis obtained in this research is that the most important drivers are strengthening the democratic structure of power and political freedoms, strengthening party discourse, strengthening social capital, developing civil society institutions, party independence, developing a culture of participation and collective work, and facilitating the circulation of political elites, The structure of parties and their supervision. The prospective research framework used in this research is based on library methods, questionnaires and the use of Micmac software. The most important finding of this research is the discovery and description of the drivers of party development. Manuscript profile
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        53 - Futures Research and sudies about the Process of Integration and Unity in Islamic World
        Mohammad Reza Ghaedi Alireza Golshani
        Abstract: The present article tries to describe the internal and external challenges to the unity of Islamic world. In this direction the existing processes in the Islamic world have been explained to find out whether the present situation is an integration or disintegr More
        Abstract: The present article tries to describe the internal and external challenges to the unity of Islamic world. In this direction the existing processes in the Islamic world have been explained to find out whether the present situation is an integration or disintegration. The present research by taking into consideration the realities of international system and the existing process in the Islamic world, wants to know whether the unity of Islamic world is possible in future? The finding of the study indicates that by examining the existing situation in the Islamic world one comes to the conclusion that  due to contradiction of the Islamic states, in short term we cannot witness the unity of Muslims. For solving this problem, first a plan of Islamic world unity should be prepared and this plan should initially bring about a consensus among the governmental and intellectual elite. Then practical measures and common programs should substitute hostility and contain extremism. Manuscript profile
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        54 - Assessing and measuring sustainability in urban worn-out structures with a futures research approach and providing appropriate solutions Case study: Zahedan city
        abdolsalam sepahian Mohammad Reza Poodineh Sima Firouzi Rad sajad poudineh
        10.30495/uf.2022.1946641.1012
        Sustainable urban development is the main axis of planning and urban management as the custodian of urban affairs always strives to achieve it. Dilapidated urban structures are part of today's cities that face many problems in economic, social, physical, environmental a More
        Sustainable urban development is the main axis of planning and urban management as the custodian of urban affairs always strives to achieve it. Dilapidated urban structures are part of today's cities that face many problems in economic, social, physical, environmental and managerial dimensions. Enjoys.This research tries to study the status of existence and planning to improve its status in order to achieve future stability in the area with a futuristic research approach. Has collected its requirements by library documentation method and field studies and a questionnaire of 400 samples estimated by Cochran sampling method. Data analysis was performed using AHP-TOPPSIS analysis method and SWOT analysis method and comparison of factors in the range.According to the obtained results, among the sustainability factors, social factors are the most important and among the indicators, three indicators of social interaction, vitality and user mixing have the highest coefficient. The results of SW1 + 604OT analysis show that the use of aggressive strategies (WO) is the first priority to promote sustainability in the area with a futuristic approach. Manuscript profile
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        55 - Measuring the level of social resilience in the worn-out context of cities with a futures research approach (Case study: Zabol city)
        maryam karimiyan sajad poudineh Morteza Sadegh bakhtiari Zahra sarabandi
        10.30495/uf.2022.1945714.1010
        With the spread of urbanization, issues such as urban resilience to sustain cities in the face of natural and man-made disasters have come to the fore. Occurrence of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes often have devastating effects on human set More
        With the spread of urbanization, issues such as urban resilience to sustain cities in the face of natural and man-made disasters have come to the fore. Occurrence of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes often have devastating effects on human settlements, destroying buildings and infrastructure and imposing far-reaching socio-economic consequences on communities. Therefore, in this study, the degree of social resilience in the dilapidated fabric of Zabol city has been studied with a futuristic approach.This research, using the technique of cross-impact analysis and using the Wizard scenario software, has measured the degree of social resilience in the worn-out fabric of Zabol city at the horizon of 1420. This research is based on the applied research approach in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical method. The statistical population of the study was 30 experts and specialists in the fields of urban planning, crisis management and futures studies who were selected by purposive sampling.The results show that 15 key factors are involved in measuring the social resilience of Zabol city, for which 45 possible situations in the future were considered and designed as a 45 45 45 crossover effect matrix; Then, by obtaining the opinions of experts and based on the analysis of Scenario Wizard software, 6 strong scenarios were extracted. Out of 6 strong scenarios, 2 scenarios (Scenarios 2 and 4) are in good condition, which shows the ideal conditions for social resilience in the worn-out fabric of Zabol city, and the other 4 scenarios (Scenarios 1, 3, 5 and 6) in They are in a critical state where there is a need to plan to reduce the negative effects of their occurrence. Manuscript profile
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        56 - Understanding the future uncertainties of the state of urban development plans in Iran in the context of scenario planning (Case study: Noorabad city master plan)
        Ahmad Rezaiee Marzie Moghali Ebrahim Afifi
        10.30495/uf.2023.1976829.1082
        Comprehensive urban plans, as the most important management tool on a city-wide scale, have faced problems in the decades that have passed since their emergence, which have accompanied the achievement of their intended goals and results. Addressing the issue of comprehe More
        Comprehensive urban plans, as the most important management tool on a city-wide scale, have faced problems in the decades that have passed since their emergence, which have accompanied the achievement of their intended goals and results. Addressing the issue of comprehensive plan evaluation is considered an important tool to measure the success and feasibility of comprehensive plan proposals and will help urban planners to better deal with the problems of preparing and compiling comprehensive plans that have been prepared Become familiar. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the feasibility of the main and effective proposals in the comprehensive plan of Noorabad Mamasani City using the application of the futurology approach. The present study, in terms of applied purpose, has been conducted in terms of exploratory method at the exploratory level and based on the future research approach. In this study, using the Delphi method and the participation of 30 experts, the results were analyzed in the Mick Mac software environment, and then these factors were determined based on the importance and uncertainty, prioritization, and the most vital factors, and to identify the drivers. The key is the software (Micmac) and the script is used for the scripting wizard software. interference of officials, lack of communication with the consultant, unreasonable solutions, lack of attention to local conditions, lack of government assistance, lack of credit assistance, and lack of stable income. Manuscript profile
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        57 - Analysis of Factors Affecting The Development of Border Cities By Futures Studies Approach(Case study: city of Zabol)
        Saeed Najafi
        Geographical location and communication Zabol border provinces has led to the development of the city,the regional development in the province and the country's relations with the countries of the region.What is required revision in approach and application of new tools More
        Geographical location and communication Zabol border provinces has led to the development of the city,the regional development in the province and the country's relations with the countries of the region.What is required revision in approach and application of new tools in planning.Foresight as a new approach, a process that will lead to sustainable results is planned.In this regard, this research, foresight approach to the analysis of the factors influencing the development of border cities and the influence of these factors on each other and on the future status of the city of Zabol about the study.New research method based on futures, explain and to collect information from documents and survey methods were used.For data analysis,interaction/structure is used by software MICMAC. The results showed that in the first stage, Delphi method, 25 factors were identified. What is the distribution of the variables affecting the future development of the situation in the border town of Zabol you can see,the situation is more unstable system variables are scattered around the shaft diagonal screen.So five categories(factors influencing, planar factors, regulatory factors, impressionable factors and independent factors) are identifiable.The highest amount of influence variables tourism potentials, immigration, environmental and natural and agricultural capacity, The central role of the city in Sistan area, transit benefits the East, inefficient executives and political conflict, poor of rail connections with neighboring population centers, The potential occurrence and intensity of social abnormalities,being in the international narcotics trade and the situation will be the future development of the city. Manuscript profile
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        58 - The Future of Population and Migration Developments in Cities of Razavi, North and South Khorasan Provinces
        ali saffari raad ehsan alipouri
        Given that today there are significant developments in the field of urbanization, especially population and migration, so future research and a vision for the future in adopting population policies, strategies and programs can be beneficial and ultimately likely to occu More
        Given that today there are significant developments in the field of urbanization, especially population and migration, so future research and a vision for the future in adopting population policies, strategies and programs can be beneficial and ultimately likely to occur. To further the desirable future. The purpose of this study is to investigate the future of population and migration changes in the cities of North, Razavi and South Khorasan provinces. The research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature. The method of data collection is also documentary and field. The trend impact analysis method has been used for future research on population changes and migration. The results show that according to population and migration forecasts, the urban population in Khorasan province during the years 1330-1394 has an increasing trend, but the population growth rate will continue to decline, as we approach the coming years the number of migrants. Also reduced. 50 key factors and 13 factors affecting population and urban migration in Khorasan provinces are considered by experts and ratings in micmac software. Using Scenario Wizard software, 3 strong or probable scenarios, 11 high compatibility scenarios and 261 weak scenarios, were extracted. Of the 3 and 11 scenarios, only three scenarios, which are more robust than the other scenarios, show a favorable population and urban migration in the coming years. Manuscript profile
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        59 - Analysis of key factors affecting the housing of low-income urban groups Case study: Rasht city
        samad samie Mehrdad ramzanipour Leila Ebrahimi amane haghzad
        Housing is durable, immovable, multidimensional, heterogeneous, and costly goods. Housing plays a very significant role in the social organization of space. Therefore, some policies must be taken in housing planning to facilitate the access terms to housing for each soc More
        Housing is durable, immovable, multidimensional, heterogeneous, and costly goods. Housing plays a very significant role in the social organization of space. Therefore, some policies must be taken in housing planning to facilitate the access terms to housing for each social group,in particular, low-income groups. One of the modern methods to achieve this goal in planning is the futurology-based methods. In this regard, the current study aims to identify the influential factors in the urban housing of the low-income class. This study is applied in terms of purpose and analytical-descriptive in terms of nature. Library and survey studies were used to collect the information. The statistical population of the research is the experts in housing and low-income groups. 35 experts were selected using a purposive sampling method due to the unknown number of the population. The applied indicators consist of 43 variables in 5 different aspects. Environmental scanning technique, Delphi method, and Mic Mac software were used to analyze data. According to the findings obtained from the Delphi method and environmental scanning, 43 factors affecting the housing planning of the low-income class of Rasht City were identified. After analyzing by Mic Mac software, 15 factors including housing price, unemployment, inappropriate poverty alleviation policies, population growth rate, housing rent, construction materials, public and private investments, land price, construction credits, construction costs, lack of proper urban governance, unfair distribution of power sources, income, inflation, tolls and taxes, were recognized as the main factors affecting the housing development of low-income groups of the city. Manuscript profile
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        60 - Identifying the key factors of urban development with a , futures studies approach; Case study: Sari city
        sadegh seidbeigi Pari Mosapour Miyandehi shahram mollania maryam malmir
        Although urban growth is a common phenomenon, patterns and stimulus factors are relatively unknown and the set of comprehensive factors that can explain the urban growth process is not due to the uniqueness of the characteristics of cities. the aim of this study is to i More
        Although urban growth is a common phenomenon, patterns and stimulus factors are relatively unknown and the set of comprehensive factors that can explain the urban growth process is not due to the uniqueness of the characteristics of cities. the aim of this study is to identify key factors of urban development in sari with the future approach, which the research method is descriptive - analytical and is applicable in terms of practical purpose. in order to collect data from documents and library studies, library and field surveys have been used. The second stage was scored using the interaction technique (structural analysis method) and analyzed in the software MICMAC environment. Finally, the driving and key factors of urban development were selected according to the impact score and direct impact. the results of this study indicate that the urban development system is a stable system and the factors participating in urban management and development, and the policies used for subsidy and price control, which, although decision - making in this regard, are subject to the government, are the main influencing factors in the city of Sari. it is also the factor for organizing special tourism axes using environmental quality and vision corridors and aspect of the main factor in the risk situation in sari city and the main secondary leverage component is "traffic growth" that can be used as development driver. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        61 - Forecasting the price of electricity in the cash and advance markets and designing the optimal model for selling electricity in the mentioned markets with the Copola function approach.
        Arash Jalebi mahmood khodam hossein mohammadnezhad
        The purpose of this article was to predict the price of electricity in the cash and cash markets and to design the optimal model of electricity sales in the aforementioned markets with the Copula function approach. For this purpose, daily information was used in the per More
        The purpose of this article was to predict the price of electricity in the cash and cash markets and to design the optimal model of electricity sales in the aforementioned markets with the Copula function approach. For this purpose, daily information was used in the period of 1396-1401. In order to forecast, time series models and OLS, GARCH and Copula approaches were used. The results showed that trigonometric functions can well explain the behavior of electricity prices, which is caused by the seasonal behavior of electricity prices during one-year periods. In the random part, the estimated values show that the random component has an average of almost zero and the speed of returning to the average in prices is high. The average of the shocks, their negativity and variance are very small. The small average values of the shocks actually show that the shocks that occurred in the price of the electricity market in Iran are very insignificant and more importantly, these shocks were more of the negative type. Regarding the optimal strategy when entering into futures transactions, our advice to players is to use the Copula-Garch method to calculate the optimal ratios for risk hedging, for two reasons. The need for risk hedging is less and as a result the transaction cost is lower, secondly, due to the existing restrictions and especially the low liquidity in energy exchange transactions, it is practically possible to cover more risk than the cash position Manuscript profile
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        62 - Identifying the factors affecting the maturity of knowledge management in physical education of the Ministry of Education of Iran
        lida dehghani Mahvash Noorbakhsh parivash nourbakhsh mehdi kohandel
        The aim of the research was to identify the drivers influencing the maturity of knowledge management in physical education of the Ministry of Education of Iran. The research method was applied in terms of its purpose and in terms of its nature, it was based on future re More
        The aim of the research was to identify the drivers influencing the maturity of knowledge management in physical education of the Ministry of Education of Iran. The research method was applied in terms of its purpose and in terms of its nature, it was based on future research, analytical and exploratory method, which was done qualitatively; The method of collecting information was documentary and library. The required information was obtained through in-depth semi-structured interviews with 23 experts; These people are faculty members of Farhangian universities with specialization in sports sciences, physical education teachers, employees of Farhangian University and employees of the Ministry of Education, people with university education related to the field of research. To analyze, a 9-by-9 matrix cross-effects matrix was used by Mick Mac software. The results showed that the drivers of organizational support and infrastructure, management agents and content have an important role in improving system relations. These drivers are effective and influential. The drivers of strategic alignment of knowledge management and knowledge management environment had the least impact and the most impact among other drivers, which according to the conditions of knowledge management in physical education. Also, the drivers of processes and knowledge management processes, the drivers of IT infrastructure and the of employees are more effective and less effective. These three propellants are more influential than the relationships of other propellants. Evaluation drivers do not have a key and important role in the formation of the spatial organization Manuscript profile
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        63 - رابطه بین قیمت‌های نقدی و آتی سکه طلا در ایران
        محسن مهرآرا فاطمه نائبی
        Manuscript profile
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        64 - Political Islam and the West Asian Security Order
        Jahanbakhsh Izadi Hamidreza Akbari
        Abstract To draw Security horizon ofWest Asian region- after Arabic revolutions in 2011- it is imperative to analyze variables and important elements such as political Islam. On this basis, the main currents of political Islam and discourses of recent developments affec More
        Abstract To draw Security horizon ofWest Asian region- after Arabic revolutions in 2011- it is imperative to analyze variables and important elements such as political Islam. On this basis, the main currents of political Islam and discourses of recent developments affecting the region. In this context, the Islamists behavior can be studied in three main categories: 1. extremism and violence in the Middle East, with the advent of emerging trends Takfiri like ISIL. 2. Inability to maintain power and sovereignty by the genuine political Islam movements like the Muslim Brotherhood. 3. Change activism in the resistance movement. The situation of West Asian region is in a period full of tension and chaos with war, Violence and religious and ethnic division’s experiences.The main question is what is the position of political Islam in the development of security order in the Middle East? This article attempts to explore by exploring trends, driving forces and scenarios of political Islam and Islamic movements, and their role in shaping the regional security order in Middle East. Manuscript profile
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        65 - The Impact Of Organizational Commitment Criteria On Business Success in Public Organizations with Futures Studies Approach
        seeyed alireza mirjafari Abdulkhalegh Gholamianarestan karamollah DaneshFard
        Management knowledge researchers believe that the most important factor of business success in organizations is organizational commitment and it is a continuous process and an attitude about employee loyalty to the organization. The aim of this study was to find the com More
        Management knowledge researchers believe that the most important factor of business success in organizations is organizational commitment and it is a continuous process and an attitude about employee loyalty to the organization. The aim of this study was to find the components affecting organizational commitment and business success and ranking. This research is an applied research in terms of purpose and based on data collection, qualitative and quantitative research. In this research. exploratory mixture method has been used. First through semi-structured interviews. qualitative data are collected and we follow our interviews to the theoretical saturation stage. Then. using qualitative content analysis method. a questionnaire has been prepared which is the basis of the research. After collecting quantitative data and analyzing them using FAHP and extracting the final model of the research and then ranking the components has been discussed. Three main indicators and five sub-indices were extracted. The main components among the extracted components. organizational factors ranked first environmental factors ranked second and individual factors ranked third Among the sub-indicators. the component of selection and employment ranked first, work conscience ranked second, training ranked third. compensation of employees' service ranked forth and job conditions ranked fifth. Manuscript profile
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        66 - Convergence of Futures Contracts For Iranian Stock Exchange
        Fatemeh mirzadeh ali saeedi Alireza Heidarzadeh Hanzaei Mohammad Khodaei valezaghard
        The data used in this study, the daily cash and future prices with 71 contracts from 25 November 2008 to 23 Septamber 2018,and and the price and future of saffron, with 29 contracts from 22 May 2018 to the end of 19 March 2020, is in the statistical community of iranian More
        The data used in this study, the daily cash and future prices with 71 contracts from 25 November 2008 to 23 Septamber 2018,and and the price and future of saffron, with 29 contracts from 22 May 2018 to the end of 19 March 2020, is in the statistical community of iranian stock exchange. In this study, using the regression coefficient model to investigate the changes in the spot price and the future price, from time to maturity of the futurt contract and to evaluate the point of convergence of price, from the approach of accumulation and paired sample mean comparisons are used, also from the Granger causality test, the existence or nonexistence of causal relation between spot and future price was investigated. The results showed that there is a convergence of price in the coin, but in the case of saffron contracts, prices don 't go to convergence. also in the point convergence , by using of the integrated approach and paired average tests show that convergence in both cargo has been studied. Also, the results of causality tests, The assumption of the cause - effect relationship in saffron has not been confirmed. Manuscript profile
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        67 - Dynamic contagion effect of volatility cycle between gold futures market and physical gold market
        bagher sayari Reza Gholami-jamkarani Mir Feiz Falah hosein jahangirnia
        The interaction between financial derivatives and their underlying physical markets has been the subject of extensive research in finance. This article examines the effect of dynamic contagion between the gold futures market and the physical gold market in financial mar More
        The interaction between financial derivatives and their underlying physical markets has been the subject of extensive research in finance. This article examines the effect of dynamic contagion between the gold futures market and the physical gold market in financial markets and Tehran Stock Exchange, period of 08/29/2009 and 09/05/2018. It specifically focuses on the oscillating cycle that occurs between these two interconnected domains. Data is collected daily. Using a comprehensive data set covering a significant period, advanced econometric techniques from GARCH-BEKK, Markov-Switching and Structural VAR models to analyze volatility dynamics and contagion between gold futures and We use the physical gold market. Our findings show the existence of a two-way relationship, in which there is a contagion effect of turbulence from the physical gold market to the coin futures market. Also, another result of the research is that the contagion effect of turbulence from the physical gold market to the coin futures market is different in different regimes. Manuscript profile
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        68 - Risk hedging by use of Hybrid future contracts index (Case: Iran financial market)
        Hamid Eskandari Ali Asghar Anvary Rostamy Ali Husseinzadeh Kashan
        Former local and foreign researches in risk hedging area have investigated optimum delivery month and optimum risk hedging ratio. In this research risk hedging by use of all delivery months by use of weekly data is discussed because of low number of transactions and con More
        Former local and foreign researches in risk hedging area have investigated optimum delivery month and optimum risk hedging ratio. In this research risk hedging by use of all delivery months by use of weekly data is discussed because of low number of transactions and contract's volumes in Iran Mercantile Exchange. Three scenarios are defined. For this purpose three scenarios is defined. In the first scenario the number of positions on each delivery month is equal with the number of trades on each delivery month in previous week. In the second scenario positions are taken based on number of trades in previous trading day and in the third scenario positions are taken base on average number of trades in the last week. However, optimum hedge ratio should be considered in each delivery month. Static hedging ratio by use of minimum variance method and different econometrics models for in the sample and out of sample tests is calculated. Results show that three scenario has the ability to reduce risk. In the sample tests indicate that the first scenario with use of VAR model has the best efficiency and in the out of sample tests second scenario with Tarch model has the best efficiency. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        69 - Feasibility of Currency hedging for exporter and importer companies by Using the Iran Mercantile Exchange Coin futures contract
        ali rostami Gholamreza Zomordian Meysam Alimohammadi
        One of the most important applications of futures, hedging is that this application is also evident in the futures coins and various stakeholders can use it. In this paper, using time series dollar in free market and price of futures contracts coin during the period 139 More
        One of the most important applications of futures, hedging is that this application is also evident in the futures coins and various stakeholders can use it. In this paper, using time series dollar in free market and price of futures contracts coin during the period 1390 to 1393 to assess the risk of cross hedging exchange rate using futures contracts coin. First, the correlation between the exchange rate and price time series econometric model for future Coin vector regression (VAR) found. After the confirmation of residual autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity conditional on the VAR, the model BEEK (which is a multivariate GARCH model), conditional variance Currency and coins was estimated future prices and then by minimum variance hedge ratio was calculated for different maturities and the profit or loss resulting from currency risk hedging gain or loss resulting from exchange rate fluctuations were real. The results show that there is a high correlation with the price of the coin exchange rate (US Dollar), possibility of covering cross-currency risk using futures contracts provide for gold coins. Also, due to long-term memory between exchange rate fluctuations and price estimation of future coins hedge ratio through BEEK-GARCH model, and using this model include more than 70 percent to compensate losses from currency risk. Manuscript profile
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        70 - Analysis and explanation of stock returns based on third and fourth order torques of non-systematic risk and the role of arbitrage constraints and investors' limited attention to it
        roqaye talebi Majid Zanjirdar Mohammadreza pour Fakharan
        10.30495/afi.2022.1945563.1068
        The purpose of this study was to investigate the response of stock returns to non-systematic risk torque measurement models. The spatial scope of this research was the companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and the time domain was between 2013and 2020. The presen More
        The purpose of this study was to investigate the response of stock returns to non-systematic risk torque measurement models. The spatial scope of this research was the companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange and the time domain was between 2013and 2020. The present research is in the category of applied research. If the classification of types of research is considered based on the nature and method, the method of the present research is descriptive in terms of nature and is considered as a correlational research in terms of method. Based on the systematic elimination method, 152 companies were selected as a statistical sample. Descriptive and inferential statistics have been used to describe and summarize the collected data. In order to analyze the data, first the variance heterogeneity pre-tests, F-Limer test and Jark-Bra test were used, and then multivariate regression were used to confirm and reject the research hypotheses (EVIEWS software). The results showed the effect of unsystematic risk torques on future stock returns with increasing limited shareholder attention; Arbitrage restrictions as well as the simultaneous interaction between limited shareholder attention and arbitrage restrictions are intensifying; The obtained results eliminate the contradiction of studies and are consistent with the documents mentioned in the theoretical framework of research and financial literature. Manuscript profile
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        71 - Investigating the dynamic contagion effect of the turbulence cycle between the gold futures market and the exchange rate using GARCH-BEKK, markov switching, and structural VAR models
        Bagher Sayari Mir Feyz Falah Shams Reza Gholami Jamkarani Hossein Jahangirnia
        10.30495/afi.2023.1991865.1244
        Objective: With the expansion of globalization, financial markets in both developed and developing countries have become interconnected. In financial discourse, the interconnection between financial markets is referred to as financial contagion. Financial contagion can More
        Objective: With the expansion of globalization, financial markets in both developed and developing countries have become interconnected. In financial discourse, the interconnection between financial markets is referred to as financial contagion. Financial contagion can transmit the volatility of one market to another, potentially leading to economic booms, recessions, or varying levels of risk and return. Consequently, given the significance of volatility contagion in markets for investors and decision-makers, the purpose of this study is to examine the effect of dynamic contagion in the volatility cycle between the futures market of gold and the foreign exchange rate in financial markets and the Tehran Stock Exchange.Research Methodology: The data were collected daily over the period from 2009 to 2018. To test the research hypotheses, GARCH-BEKK models, Markov Switching, and Vector Autoregression were employed.Findings: The results of the study indicate that the contagion effect of volatility is from the foreign exchange market to the gold futures market. Moreover, the contagion effect of volatility from the foreign exchange market to the gold futures market varies across different regimes.Originality / Value: The findings of this research could provide new insights that may guide policymaking and decision-making in the financial industry. Manuscript profile
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        72 - Identifying Strategic Factors and Scenario Planning in the Banking Industry with an Uncertainty Approach
        Mahdi Joneidi Jafari AliReza Jalali Farahani
        The main purpose of this study is to identify the most likely future scenarios of the banking industry in order to investigate and analyze the sub-objectives of the research, including identifying key factors and strategic drivers affecting the Iranian banking industry. More
        The main purpose of this study is to identify the most likely future scenarios of the banking industry in order to investigate and analyze the sub-objectives of the research, including identifying key factors and strategic drivers affecting the Iranian banking industry. Therefore, this study seeks to identify the most important possible scenarios for the banking industry while identifying the strategic factors affecting the future of the banking industry and also examining and analyzing their interactions. The research is practical in terms of purpose and cross-sectional in time. In order to identify the strategic factors affecting the banking industry, the library method was used and 84 factors were identified. Then, using the fuzzy Delphi method, strategic factors were selected and academic and industry experts selected 37 factors. Then, the interaction analysis matrix method and Micmac software were used to evaluate and identify key factors, and 9 strategic factors were included in the scenario wizard software to form the portfolio of future scenarios of the banking industry. Finally based on the output of the scenario wizard, two scenarios including two optimal and critical modes are drawn and analyzed Manuscript profile
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        73 - Banking Industry Macro Strategies through Scenario Approach
        farhad shamshiri Abdulhamid Ebrahimi
        The purpose of this study is to determine the scenarios of the banking industry with a future studies approach and how to achieve the possible scenarios. This research by purpose is research-practical oriented that collects information using qualitative methods. Data co More
        The purpose of this study is to determine the scenarios of the banking industry with a future studies approach and how to achieve the possible scenarios. This research by purpose is research-practical oriented that collects information using qualitative methods. Data collection tools are questionnaires, interviews, taking notes and statistical and information networks. In this research, the statistical population is the managers and specialists of the banking industry who, according to the type of information needed to conduct the research, a sample of 66 experts in the field of banking was selected in a way non-probability and judgmental sampling. The methodology of this research is based on scenario writing. So, after formulating the initial question and identifying the main subject, forming an expert panel, conducting exploratory interviews and identifying the driving forces, 64 variables were provided to the experts in the form of a 64 * 64 matrix as the primary factors affecting the banking industry. Then, using the Mic Mac software, 12 key factors were extracted and classified into 38 different situations. Then, these situations were presented to the experts for all key factors in a 38 * 38 matrix and analyzed in the Scenario Wizard software. Finally, 3 strong scenarios, 1 believable scenario and 8 weak scenarios were identified and Strategies were presented to develop the banking industry. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        74 - Environmental Scanning of Sections Quad Iran's Sports Based on Strategic Foresight and Analysis of Consequences by Future Wheel Method
        reza Farokhshahinia Moslem Shirvani Naghani ali hemati afif
        The general object of this study was the environmental scanning of Sections quad Iran's sports based on the STEEPELD model and analysis of key driving forces consequences by future wheel method. The present research is in terms of applied purpose, mixed in terms of natu More
        The general object of this study was the environmental scanning of Sections quad Iran's sports based on the STEEPELD model and analysis of key driving forces consequences by future wheel method. The present research is in terms of applied purpose, mixed in terms of nature, and in terms of implementation path, survey and brainstorming. The statistical population were faculty members of sports management with associate degrees and higher who were selected by combined sampling. To adjust the environmental factors and analyze their impact, a 61-item questionnaire with convergent validity (0.622) and composite reliability coefficient (0.868) was used, which was analyzed using Friedman test, structural equation modeling (PLS) and panel of experts. According to the research results, economic transparency and control in educational sport, economic stability and security in sport for all, infrastructure development in championship sport and international restrictions such as sanctions in professional sport, had the highest impact factor whose consequences were investigated with 24 components in the first, 22 components in the second and 19 components in the third place. Therefore, analyzing the impact of the identified key driving forces of the research can provide a more suitable image of the future of Iranian sports on the horizon of 2025 to eliminate, adjust or develop the strategies of sports organizations. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        75 - Future studies with an emphasis on civil society in Iran layered analysis of causes CLA
        zahra masoud احمد ساعی
        Civil society is an issue that has attracted the attention of many thinkers and Various scientific fields such as law, political science, management, sociology, etc. encompasses.. The concept of civil society in the development of modernist discourse is a special place More
        Civil society is an issue that has attracted the attention of many thinkers and Various scientific fields such as law, political science, management, sociology, etc. encompasses.. The concept of civil society in the development of modernist discourse is a special place to review the theories of political development after the Second World War show The development and formation of civil society and political development, in fact, one of the basic conditions is a precondition for the fulfillment of all other conditions . Background Of formation of civil society in Iran has been facing many difficulties. Due to the changes that are driving this trend continues and there is not possible in this area. The purpose of the implementation of the method (CLA) that it has designed Sohail Inayatullah This is done by analyzing the causes layered, deconstructs social phenomena and And to achieve deep understanding of the underlying layers of problems, to a deeper understanding of the subject there. Manuscript profile
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        76 - Investigating the Relationship of the Entrepreneurial University with the Dimensions and Components of Forecasting and Science Productio
        kiuomarz nyazazari maryam taghvaei yazdi samad fadaei
          The aim of this study is to provide a Investigating the Relationship of the Entrepreneurial University with the Dimensions and Components of Investigation and the Production of Science.This study is a qualitative methodology. The research method was descriptive- More
          The aim of this study is to provide a Investigating the Relationship of the Entrepreneurial University with the Dimensions and Components of Investigation and the Production of Science.This study is a qualitative methodology. The research method was descriptive-Field Study measurement. The statistic sample was chosen from Islamic Azad university faculties (800 individuals). The research sample was chosen by Random Stratified sampling. The techniques used to collect the data were based on three questionnaires: (entrepreneurial, Futures study technique and since Questionnaires). By using data analysis through SPSS and Lisrel software showed, (descriptive and inferential, regression and factor analysis methods) The results showed that  6  dimensions creating entrepreneurial University in Iran’s Educational system Including Organizational acting, Attitude, Flexibility, Compensation, Entrepreneurial Leadership, entrepreneurial culture. There are 4 dimensions creating university based on Futures study technique in Iran’s Educational system including Model philosophy, Theatrical foundation, Administrative level, evaluated system. There is 7 dimensions creating  since University in Iran’s Educational system Including Motivation, Structure, University supporting, University based on education, Knowledge Management System, Co working research, Limiting in Financing. entrepreneurial University effected on Futures study technique in the education system in Iran. Entrepreneurial University effected on since in the education system in Iran. Benefiting from confirmatory factor analysis using LISREL software, 97 questions (all three questionnaires), were subjected to confirmatory factor analysis. The final model of the study was confirmed with the indices of fit and the standardized coefficients.   Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        77 - Presenting the Model of Impact of Knowledge Management on Future Study Mediated by Organizational Intelligence Educational Managers and Faculty Members of Mazandaran Province Universities
        babak hoseinzade mohamad ebrahim tahernezhad Vahid Fllah
        The purpose of the present study was to determine the impact of knowledge management on the future research of educational managers and faculty members of Mazandaran universities by mediating organizational intelligence and presenting a model. Quantitative strategy was More
        The purpose of the present study was to determine the impact of knowledge management on the future research of educational managers and faculty members of Mazandaran universities by mediating organizational intelligence and presenting a model. Quantitative strategy was used in this study. This research is a descriptive-survey research, in terms of purpose, applied research and in terms of method, correlation is structural equations. The statistical population includes all educational directors and faculty members (2940 persons) of universities in Mazandaran province who were employed in the academic year (1977-98) using Cochran formula to estimate 334 people as sample size. Was done. Stratified random sampling was used to select the samples. The required data were collected using a researcher made questionnaire of futures research, Lawson knowledge management standard questionnaire and Carl Albrecht organizational intelligence standard questionnaire and were analyzed by SPSS statistical software. Path analysis and Bootstrap test were used to analyze the research questions. Findings showed that knowledge management variables had a significant positive relationship with futures, knowledge management with organizational intelligence and organizational intelligence with futures research. Organizational intelligence also plays a mediating role in the impact of knowledge management on future research. Manuscript profile

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