Future Study of Investment in the Housing Industry in Iran Using Scenario Planning Approach and Cross-Impact Matrix

Subject Areas : Futurology

Mohammad Reza Fathi ¹ , Mohammad Hasan Maleki ² , Vahid Rezvani Asl ³

1 - Assistant Professor, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Farabi Campus, Tehran University, Iran
2 - Assistant Professor, Faculty of Economics and Management, Qom University, Iran (Corresponding Author) [e-mail]
3 - Master of Science in Management of Industrial Trend, Institute of Management and Planning Education and Research, Iran

Received: 2017-05-26 Accepted : 2017-11-05 Published : 2018-01-21

Keywords: Housing industry, Futures study, investment, Cross impact analysis, Profitability,

Abstract :

Housing sector is one of the  pioneer sectors of  every  economy  that  attention to  that moreover deep social and  cultural  influences and  making  jobs in building sector and  dependent sectors, by means of  influence on consuming expenditures and investment, effects strongly on gross domestic product changes and economical fluctuations. Also in recent years, this industry always has faced with splendor and stagnancy. so in this research, housing industry with regard to importance and it`s role in economical development and public welfare, with financial view investigated as Futures study. As identifying effective key factors on investment and future profitability of housing industry are important, this research with using ultra disciplinary of futures study intends to apply recognitional instruments and scenario writing, presents a clear view of future of Iran housing industry to programmers and investors. because of  this  research  is done  with  general  and comprehensive view  related to research variables, results of this research can be generalized to housing industry of country. in  this  research with studying subject literature and interview with experts of housing  industry, effective factors on research variables are identified and next, with using cross impact analysis approach, data entered to Mic-mac software and 4 effective key factors on future of investment and profitability are specified including economical sanctions, scale of government investment in housing sector, economical splendor and stagnancy, scale of access to  infrastructural networks that are selected among 40 effective factors. in next phase, for  writing scenarios, 4 effective  key factors  with specifying uncertainty states in questionnaire by experts, entered to Scenariowizard  software and the most consistent future forthcoming scenarios  of  housing   industry  specified . After identifying scenarios and consult experts, economical sanctions and scsle of government investment in housing sector selected for writing scenarios and with regards to their conditions, future of housing industry presented in the form of 4 scenarios.