The future study of bullwhip effect in the supply chain of Iran’s machine-made carpet industry
Subject Areas : Futurology
1 - Assistant professor, management and entrepreneurship department, humanities faculty, university of Kashan, Kashan, Iran
Keywords: supply chain, machine-made carpet, bullwhip effect, futures study,
Abstract :
Background: The supply chain of machine-made carpets has faced several fluctuations in recent years. One of the most important fluctuations is the bullwhip effect. Future study of bullwhip effect in the supply chain can prepare decision makers to deal with possible scenarios. This research has been carried out in the Iranian machine-made carpet industry. Objective: Future study of the bullwhip effect in the supply chain of Iran's machine-made carpet industry Methods: The statistical population of this research is the experts of Iranian machine carpet industry who have been selected by judgment and snowball method. Theme analysis was used to analyze the interviews and Micmac and Scenariowizard software were used for future study. Results: The results of the interview showed that there are 10 drivers for bullwhip effect in the supply chain, 9 of which were selected as important drivers by Micmac software. Out of 1152 possible scenarios, 3 scenarios were consistent, which are a favorable scenario, an unfavorable scenario and a median scenario. Conclusion: Finally, suggestions such as reducing start-up time, improving demand forecasting methods, changing the replenishment policy, volume-based discounts instead of batch-based discounts, and vendor inventory management were presented to achieve the desired scenario and avoid the unfavorable scenario.
