Structural analysis of urban livability in Ahvaz metropolis with a future research approach
Subject Areas : Regional PlanningMina Khandan 1 , نوبخت سبحانی 2
1 - Assistant Professor, Department of Urban Planning, Roudehen Branch, Islamic Azad University, Roudehen, Iran
2 - دانش اموخته دکتری برنامه ریزی شهری
Keywords: urban livability, Ahvaz Metropolis, Structural Analysis, futures research,
Abstract :
Nowadays, most metropolises are facing challenges in various dimensions, including economic, social, physical, environmental, etc., and a variety of approaches such as livability and future research have been proposed to solve the problems in the current situation. In addition to sustainable urban development, these two categories can be developed as a guiding principle in the framework of sustainable discourse in policy-making and urban planning. Therefore, it is important and necessary to take into account the dimensions and foresight of livability in the current situation. In this regard, this study is aimed at the structural analysis of urban livability in the metropolis of Ahvaz using a futures research approach. It is an applied study conducted using the analytical exploratory design based on the futures research method. The statistical population consists of 8 experts of futures research, urban planners and managers selected by purposive sampling. The Mic Mac method of cross-impact analysis was used to analyze the findings. The results showed that more than 2% of the variables had no influence, 24% of them were effective, 65% were reinforcing and finally about 8% were empowering. On the other hand, the variables of "having appropriate savings" and "access to urban facilities and services" were the most influencing and influenced variables, respectively. The results also showed that the variables of "savings" and "access to urban facilities and services" were the most influencing and influenced variables, respectively. In general, the distribution of variables in the dispersion map of 1410 Horizon shows that livability has an unstable status in the study area.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
One of the main goals of urban managers and planners to get out of the current situation in Ahvaz metropolis is to make decisions at the present time so that future urban activities can be properly managed and planned for the benefit of its residents. Therefore, the management and planning of Ahvaz metropolis is faced with many of the above-mentioned complexities due to its spatial-physical extension and the multiple variables affecting its dimensions. In fact, this metropolis lacks an urban planning system in line with urban management decisions as well as proper foresight to improve livability and increase the quality of life. In addition, the lack of a flexible and long-term vision, horizon and strategic approach in urban policy-making and the existence of sectoral management in the city body have put its development in a cycle of confusion. Therefore, resolving problems and conflicts at such a level of complexity requires a coherent, purposeful, and flexible structure with a futures research approach that can and should be considered by urban policymakers and practitioners as a fundamental strategy. By exploring the various facilities and potentials in Ahvaz metropolis, this approach (futures research) brings a broader perspective towards a variety of possible and favorable futures for urban planners, managers and actors. It also helps to provide better strategies and different scenarios of urban space management and design plans to deal with unexpected events and move in the right direction. Thinking in the above approach helps us to understand the logic of developing livability in urban spaces and improving it in tropical metropolises, and to identify the driving forces, key factors, main actors and our own potential for exerting influence.
Methodology
This is an applied study in terms of purpose and an analytical-exploratory study based on the futures research method with a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Theoretical and experimental data were collected using the desk-based and the Delphi survey methods, respectively. In this research, 5 general dimensions (economic, managerial, social, environmental and physical) and 47 variables were selected by experts and specialists in the field. The statistical population consisted of 8 specialists, experts, professors and faculty members. The cross impact analysis, MICMAC was used to analyze the findings. Thus, the variables in the questionnaire were evaluated as without influence (zero), influencing (one), strengthening (two) and empowering (three). After the above step, the data were entered into MICMAC software to identify their relationship. Therefore, the influencing and influenced variables were determined in terms of direct and indirect influence using this output.
Results and Discussion
After identifying the probable and effective variables in improving the livability of Ahvaz metropolis and using the opinions of experts, all the variables were analyzed in MICMAC software. After forming the initial matrix of variables and entering the weights obtained from the opinions of experts, the 47x47 matrix dimensions were classified in 5 general dimensions. The filling index of cross-effects analysis for the variables with 2 data rotations shows the number 95%, which reflects the high influence of the variables on each other and the relationships between them have the value of cross effects. Out of the total relationships of cross-effects analysis, 47 relationships had no influence on each other, 538 relationships influenced each other slightly, 1449 relationships were reinforcing with relatively strong influencing relationships, and 175 relationships, equal to 7.92%, had a numerical value of 3, indicating that they were very empowering and both highly influenced and were influenced by other variables. Also, based on the variables with 2 rotations, it had 100% desirability and optimization, indicating the high validity of the questionnaire.
Conclusion
The livability of Ahvaz metropolis was evaluated in different dimensions using a futures research approach. In this research, the dimensions of the matrix were 47x47, which were classified into 5 different dimensions (physical, economic, social, environmental and managerial). According to the results, the filling index of the cross-effects analysis shows the number of 5%, indicating the high influence of the variables on each other. Out of the total relationships of cross-effects analysis, 47 relationships had no influence on each other, 538 relationships influenced each other slightly, 1449 relationships were reinforcing and 175 relationships were empowering, indicating that they both highly influenced and were highly influenced by other variables. A comparison of the results of the analysis of direct and indirect effects shows that indicators such as inflation, haze, dust and green space per capita had the most direct influence on the livability of the studied area with the first to third ranks, respectively.As for indirect effects, variables such as the family size, urban unit management and citizens’ level of knowledge and literacy respectively have the greatest influence from the studied variables. However, the distribution of the variables shows that livability in the studied area is unstable.
Abdulaziz, N. (2007), Linking urban form To a liveable city, Malaysian Journal of Environmental Management, Vol 8, 101-117.
Ahadnejhad roshti, m., sajadi, J., & yari gholi, V. (2019). Evaluation of urban livability indicators, case study: Zanjan city region, quarterly scientific, Vol 9(34), 131-148. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.22516735.1398.9.34.11.6.[In Persian].
Allam, Z. (2020). Biotechnology and Future Cities: Towards Sustainability, Resilience and Living Urban Organisms,https://dorl.net/dor/10.1007/978-3-030-43815-9
Al-Thani, S.K., Amato, A., Koç, M., & Al-Ghamdi, S.G. (2019). Urban Sustainability and Livability: An Analysis of Doha’s Urban-form and Possible Mitigation Strategies, Sustainability, MDPI", Sustainability, MDPI, Vol 11(3). https://doi.org/10.3390/su11030786
Atef Elsawy, A. (2019). Assessing livability of residential streets – Case study: El-Attarin, Alexandria, Egypt, Alexandria Engineering Journal, Vol 58(2), 745-755. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2019.06.005
Babaghibi Azghandi, A.R.(2010). Futurology; A new approach to comprehensive urban transport management, traffic management studies, Vol 16, pp. 77-100, https://ensani.ir/file/download/article/20120327155114-4014-35.pdf [In Persian].
Bandarabad, A.R.(2011). A livable city from basics to concepts, Azarakhsh Publications.
Benjamin L. S. (2014). spatial pattern of urban Livability in Himalayan Region: A case of Aizawl city, india, Social Indicators Research, Vol 117, 541-559. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11205-013-0362-3
Del Mar Martínez-Bravo, M., Martínez-del-Río, J., & Antolín-López, R.(2019). Trade-offs among urban sustainability, pollution and livability in European cities. Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 224, 651-660. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.03.110
Ebrahimzadeh, I., bareimani, f., & nasiry, y. (2004) Marginalization: Urban problems and its modification strategies. Case study: Karimabad Zahedan, geography and development, Vol 2(3), 121-146. https://doi.org/10.22111/gdij.2004.3833 [In Persian].
Ellis, P., & Roberts, M. (2016). Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia: Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Livability, World Bank Group, Washington, DC. ww.worldbank.org https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/sar/publication/leveraging-urbanization-south-asia-managing-spacial-transformation-prosperity-livability
Eslater, R.(2007). Contemplation for the New Millennium, Future Research Concepts,
Methods, and Ideas, translation by Aghil Malekifar and et al, Defense Industries Educational
and Research Institute Publications, Second Edition, Tehran Future Research Center.
Geng, Y., Fujita, T., Bleischwitz, R.,Chiu, A., & Sarkis, J. (2019).Accelerating the Transition to Equitable, Sustainable, and Livable Cities: Toward Post-Fossil Carbon Societies. Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol 239, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.118020
Godet, M. (2000). The Art of Scenarios and Strategic Planning: Tools and Pitfalls, Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Vol 65(1), 3–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00120-1
Jarvenpaa, S.T.(2013). How Finnair socialized customers for service co-creation with social media. MIS Quarterly Executive, 12 (3), pp. 125–136. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282542636_How_Finnair_Socialized_Customers_for_Service_Co-Creation_with_Social_Media
Kashef, M.‚ (2016). Urban livability across disciplinary and professionalboundaries. Frontiers of Architectural Research. Vol 5(2), 239-253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foar.2016.03.003
Khandan, M. (2022). Pathology of urban livability in Tehran's suburban. Preipheral Urban Spaces Development, 4(2), 189-204. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.26764164.1401.4.2.11.4
Landry, Ch. (2000). Urban Vitality: A New source of Urban Competitiveness, prince claus fund journal, ARCHIS issue Urban Vitality / Urban Heroes. https://www.scirp.org/reference/referencespapers?referenceid=1662466
Larice, M. (2005). Great neighborhoods: The Livability and morphology of High density neighborhoods in Urban North America, Doctor of Philosophy in City and Regional Planning, University Of California, Berkeley, Professor Michael Southworth. https://www.proquest.com/docview/305031038
Liang, L., Deng, X., Wang, Pei., Wang, Z., & Wang, L.(2020). Assessment of the impact of climate change on cities livability in China, Science of the Total Environment, Vol 726. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138339
Malekzadeh, N., Bazzazzadeh, M., & Rafieiyan, M. (2016). Identification and Analysis of the Effective Key Factors on Urban Development Using Foresight Approach A Case Study of Karaj Metropolitan Area, geography and urban space development, Vol 3)2), 52-35. https://doi.org/10.22067/gusd.v3i2.49479 [In Persian].
Mardukhi, B. (2017). Futurology and the system of planning, development and futurology, Vol 2, No 2.
Mohamadi, p., Ziyari, Y., & Tavakolan, A. (2020). Analysis of the role of urban management in Shahrekord's Livability, human geography research quarterly, Vol 52, No 3, pp. 1055-1069. https://dor.isc.ac/dor/20.1001.1.22286462.1398.9.3.34.2[In Persian].
Moir, E., Moonen, T., & Clark, G. (2014). What are future cities? Origins, meanings and uses, London: government oggic for sciece.
Mousavi Noor, S.A., Varesi, H.R.,& Mohammadi, J.(2018). The Application of Multi-criteria Decision Making Models for Assessing the Livability of Metropolitan Areas of Tehran, Geography and regional development, Vol 16(2), 243-269. https://doi.org/10.22067/geography.v16i2.72686 [In Persian].
National Research Council, (2002). Community and quality of life data needs for informed decision making, National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Identifying Data Needs for Place-Based Decision Making.; National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Geography.
Onnom, W., Tripathi, N., Nitivattananon, V., & Ninsawat, S. (2018). Development of a Liveable City Index (LCI) Using Multi Criteria Geospatial Modelling for Medium Class Cities in Developing Countrie, Sustainability, MDPI, Vol. 10(2),1-19. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10020520
Ouyang, W., Wang, B., Li, T., & Niu, X. (2017). Spatial deprivation of urban public services in migrant enclaves under the context of a rapidly urbanizing China: An evaluation based on suburban Shanghai. Cities. Vol 60 (B), 436-445. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2016.06.004
Quastel, N .(2017). Urban Quality of Life/Liveability, Department of Geography, University of British Columbia. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/9781118430873.est0548
Rakhshani Nasab, H. R., & Nayeri, N. (2016). Assessing the Status of Urban Viability Indicators from the Citizen's Point of View (Case Study: Five Districts of Zahedan City), geography and territorial spatial arrangement, Vol 8(27), 55-74. https://doi.org/10.22111/gaij.2018.4090 [In Persian].
Sasanpour, F., Alizadeh, S., & Aarabi Moghadam, H. (2018). Investigating the Feasibility of Urumia Urban Areas Livability using RALSPI Model. Researches in Geographical Sciences, Vol 18 , No 48, pp. 241-258. https://dorl.net/dor/10.29252/jgs.18.48.241 [In Persian].
Satu sh.A. (2014). An examination of the livability of dense urban neighborhoods in DhakaThe impacts of urban planning, Publisher The University of Hong Kong. https://dorl.net/dor/10.5353/th_b5328047
Shamaei, A & Bigdeli, L. (2016). Dimensions of livability in the 17th district of Tehran, Geography Quarterly, Vol 4) 40), 171-191. https://mag.iga.ir/article_700860.html [In Persian].
Shamsoddini, A. , Maleki, S. , & Amiri Fahlyiani, M. R. (2013). An analysis on the rate Citizen's Satisfaction of livability and sustainability in urban environment (A case study of Noorabad Mamasani). Urban Structure and Function Studies, 1(4), 53-70. https://shahr.journals.umz.ac.ir/article_885.html?lang=fa[In Persian].
Sharifzadeh Aghdam, E., & Ajza Shokouhi, M. (2020). Analyzing the strategic planning of Tamarchin border and its effects on the level of development in Piranshahr City, sepehr, Vol 29(116),131-149. https://dorl.net/dor/10.22131/sepehr.2021.242865. [In Persian].
Sobhani, N.(2020), Regional disparities in education for sustainable development (Case city in West Azarbaijan province), geographical planning of space quarterly journal, Vol 10( 35), 216-193.https://dorl.net/dor/10.30488/gps.2020.102603 [In Persian].
Sobhani, N., Beyranvandzadeh, M., Gerami Tayyebi, M., & Seidbeigi, S.(2018). Spatial analysis of citizen's security feeling in urban spaces with futures studies approach (Case study: Khorramabad city), urban social geography, Vol 5(2), 31-49. https://dorl.net/dor/ 10.22103/JUSG.2019.1967[In Persian].
Sobhani,N., Beyranvandzadeh, M., Akbari, M., & Souri, F.(2016). Assessment of the appropriate components of urban public spaces for veterans and the disabled in the city of Khorramabad, geographical urban planning research, Vol 4(2), 283-298. https://dorl.net/dor/10.22059/jurbangeo.2016.59164[In Persian].
Song, Y. (2011). A Livable City Study in China: Using Structural Equation Models, Ph.D., thesis Submitted in Statistics, Department of Statistics Uppsala University.
Statistics Center of Iran, 1956 - 2016
Susanti, R., Soetomo, S., Buchori, I., & Brotosunaryo, P. M. (2016). Smart Growth, Smart City and Density: In Search of The Appropriate Indicator for Residential, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 227(14), 194-201. https://dorl.net/dor/10.1016/j.sbspro. 2016.06.062[In Persian].
Taghavi Gilani, M., & Ghofrani, M.B. (2000). Futurology: Futurological studies and methods, rahyaft, Vol 10 (22) [In Persian].
UNEP, (2013). City-level decoupling, Urban resource fl ows and the governance of infrastructuretransitions, A report of the Working Group on Cities of the International Resource Panel, UNEP, Nairobi.
Van Kamp, I., Leidelmeijer, K., Marsman, G., & Hollander, D. (2003). Urban Environmental Quality and Human Well-being: Towards a Conceptual Framework and Demarcation of Concepts; a Literature Study, Landscape and Urban Planning”, Vol 65(1-2), 5-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2046(02)00232-3
Zhan, D., Zhang, W., Fan, F., Yu, J., & Dang, D. (2018). Assessment and determinants of satisfaction with urban livability in China, Cities, (72), 92-101. https://dorl.net/dor/10.1016/j.cities.2018.02.025
