Identification of key variables affecting on infill development in inefficient fabrics of inner city by using futures study (case study: Shahshahan neighborhood of Isfahan)
Subject Areas :maryam arab loodaricheh 1 , Ahmad Shahivandi 2 , daryoush moradi 3
1 - Master of Urban Planning, ,Art university of Isfahan,Isfahan,Iran.
2 - Assistant professor of Urbanism, Art university of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
3 - Assistant professor of Urbanism, Art university of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
Keywords: Infill Development, Futures study, Inefficient Fabrics, Key variables, Shahshahan neighborhood,
Abstract :
One of the major problems in cities is urban sprawl that is result of inattention to development of inner city’s spaces. For this reason, approaches such as infill development with the aim of redeveloping the inefficient city central texture have become increasingly crucial. On the other hand, the passing of time shows us the inefficiency of traditional planning methods in achieving this kind of development. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is identifying the key variables affecting on infill development in inefficient areas with emphasis on Shahshahan neighborhood of Isfahan by using futures study approach as one of the new planning approaches in solving unpredictable problems and uncertainties. The type of research based on purpose is practical and based on the nature and method is according to futures study’s methods, is analytical and exploratory which in two stages of identifying the primary variables and determining the key variables used Delphi and Structural Analysis method by MIC MAC software respectively. The research findings showed that out of 40 variables studied, five have the most impact on the system and can be introduced as key variables affecting the future status of infill development in Shahshahan neighborhood including: Adjusting the trans locality of function of Shahshahan neighborhood, Coordinating the renovation-rehabilitation incentives with resident’s financial abilities, Increasing resident’s participation, Resolving the problems with land and housing ownership, and Improving the communication and access systems. These variables play the most important role in the future status of infill development and considered as a basis for scenarios in in Shahshahan neighborhood future development.
1.APA (American Planning Association))2006): Planning and Urban Design Standards, Emina Sendich: Graphics Editor, published by Wiley and Sons, Inc.
2.Azizi, Mohammadmehdi,Arasteh,Mojtaba(2012): Strategic planning for development of brown fields in historical zone of Yazd City with Fuzzy SWOT analysis ,Journal of urban management,Number28,pp314-330
3.Bavand consultants engineers (2008): Review report of detailed plan for 1th and 3th district of Isfahan, Isfahan,Iran.
4.Farris, j )2001(: The Barriers to using urban infill development to achieve smart growth, Journal of Housing policy debate, Vol.12, No.1, pp 1-30
5.Firuz, Tofigh (2011): Urban Planning in Iran and its future vision, Education and Research institute of planning and management,Tehran,Iran.
6.Future studies Depatment of Bonyad tosee farda (2005): Methods of technologic foresight, Bonyad tosee farad,Tehran,Iran.
7.Godet, M (2012): Reflections on the Field and Differences between Foresight and La Prospective-To Predict or Build the Future, Journal of Futurist, No.46.
8.Godet, M (2006): Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool, Economic Press,First edition,Paris,France.
9.Godet, M, Meunier, M,Roubelat,F(2003):Structural analysis with the MICMAC method & actors’ strategy with MACTOR method, Journal of Futures Research Methodology,NO.2.
10.Gordon, T)1994): Trend Impact Analysis, Journal of Futures Research Methodology.
11.Hashemi, Mehdi,Mahmudzadeh,Amir and Yousefi,Fariba(2014):Scenario-writing in natural disasters management, Elm afarin Press, Third edition, Tehran.
12.Hataminezhad, Hosein,Pourahmad,Ahmad and Nostarti heshi,Morteza (2017): Future studies in inefficient texture of city(case study:1th area in 9thdistrict of Tehran),Journal of geographical data,Volume 28,Number 109,pp37-55
13.Hudnut, William H, III (2001), The barriers to using urban infill development to achieve smart growth, Journal of Housing Policy Debate, Volume 12, No.1, PP 31-40
14.Kazemi, Laleh,Fanni,Zohreh,(2016):Future studies and Scenario-writing for neighborhood development’s planning based on systematic analysis(case study:Sanglaj neighborhood in Tehran),Journal of strategic studies of public policy,Volume 6,Number 21,pp15-29
15.Keeney.S, Hasson.F, McKenna, A, (2001): A critical review of the Delphi technique as a research methodology for nursing, Journal of nurse study, No.2, PP 195-200.
16.Lang. T (2005): Insights in British Study about Urban Decline and Urban Regeneration, Institute for Regional development and Structural Planning. Available at http://www.irs-net.de
17.Lehner, A, Krans, V and Steinnocher,K (2016):Urban growth scenarios of a future mega city: case study: Ahmedabad, ISPRS Annals of the photogrammetry, Remote sensing and spatial information scenarios, XX lll ISPRS congress, Vol.lll-2
19.Nasr, Tahereh(2019):Identification of key factors affecting on tourism in Shiraz city with a futures study approach, Journal of research and urban planning , Volume10,Issue37,pp55-66
20.Rafeeian, Mojtaba,Barati,Naser and Aram,Marzieh(2010):Assessing the potentials of brown field’s development in Qazvin city center with emphasizing on infill development approach, Journal of Architecture and Urbanism, Number 5,pp 45-61
22.Roberts, P (2005): The Evolution, Definition and Purpose of Urban Regeneration: A handbook; London: Sage publication.
23.Sharifian, Ehsan (2010): Infill development: using the city’s internal capacity, Journal of landscape, Number10, pp 37-50
24.Studies Center of science Academy, Foresight department of science and technology (2014): An introduction of future studies, Isfahan, Iran.
25.Ziari, Keramatollah, Rabbani, Taha and Saeedi mocheshi, Amin (2017): Future studies: New paradigm in planning by emphasis on urban and regional planning (definitions, approaches and methods), Tehran university publication, First edition, Tehran.
_||_