Livability Realization Barriers Analysis from the Perspective of Urban Experts Based on Future Studies Approach Case Study: Ahvaz Metropolis

nahid sajadiyan ¹ ( Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran )
nazanin hajipour ² ( PhD student in Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran )

Submited date : 2022-04-10 Accepted date : 2022-09-15

Keywords: Delphi method, livability, futures studies, Ahvaz Metropolis,

Abstract :

livability shows how the city system works in the context of time. Therefore, recognizing the future situation and formulating strategies to achieve the desired future, depends on appropriate planning mechanisms based on new perspectives. The current literature on livability shows gaps in its measurement and evaluation, especially from a dynamic point of view. But this assessment requires more specific tools, methods, and approaches on more accurate spatial scales, such as locality.This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. At the beginning, the dimensions and indicators related to livability were examined and by summarizing previous findings related to the situation of Ahvaz metropolis, based on the meta-analysis method, barriers to livability were extracted and effect-intervention and importance in 5 environmental, managerial, respectively. Economic, social and infrastructure including 32 general indicators were analyzed from the perspective of urban Experts (Delphi Group). In the second part, by combining the findings and environmental dynamics using a futures Studies approach based on exploratory analysis, 51 drivers that affect the trend of livability changes in the metropolis of Ahvaz were extracted.The results showed that the environmental index had the highest score and the managerial, economic, social and infrastructural indices followed it respectively. According to the matrix of impact and potential direct and indirect dependence, air pollution drivers, increasing population density and pressure on infrastructure and facilities and quantity and quality of access to services, in the first place direct and indirect impact and population growth drivers, lack of proper access for all citizens Appropriate public transportation services and inadequate distribution of infrastructure in urban areas and neighborhoods were ranked first in direct and indirect impact. In cross-sectional analysis, data related to various situations of political and institutional factors, economic, environmental and ecological, considered the probability of occurrence of pessimistic scenarios more than other scenarios and assessed the probability of occurrence of other scenarios as very small and weak. Out of 259 states on the scenario page, 155 states and 52.45% show the critical state, 85 states and 28.95% the desired state, and 55 states and 18.60% the static state.