Forecasting the price of electricity in the cash and advance markets and designing the optimal model for selling electricity in the mentioned markets with the Copola function approach.
Subject Areas : Computational economicsArash Jalebi 1 , mahmood khodam 2 , hossein mohammadnezhad 3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد کرج
2 - دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی واحد کرج
3 - دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم تحقیقات
Keywords: electricity price, , , , prediction, , cash market, , futures market, , copula function,
Abstract :
The purpose of this article was to predict the price of electricity in the cash and cash markets and to design the optimal model of electricity sales in the aforementioned markets with the Copula function approach. For this purpose, daily information was used in the period of 1396-1401. In order to forecast, time series models and OLS, GARCH and Copula approaches were used. The results showed that trigonometric functions can well explain the behavior of electricity prices, which is caused by the seasonal behavior of electricity prices during one-year periods. In the random part, the estimated values show that the random component has an average of almost zero and the speed of returning to the average in prices is high. The average of the shocks, their negativity and variance are very small. The small average values of the shocks actually show that the shocks that occurred in the price of the electricity market in Iran are very insignificant and more importantly, these shocks were more of the negative type. Regarding the optimal strategy when entering into futures transactions, our advice to players is to use the Copula-Garch method to calculate the optimal ratios for risk hedging, for two reasons. The need for risk hedging is less and as a result the transaction cost is lower, secondly, due to the existing restrictions and especially the low liquidity in energy exchange transactions, it is practically possible to cover more risk than the cash position
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