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Open Access Article
1 - Calculating and analyzing total factor of productivity growth in agriculture crop sector with ARDL method
علي باقرزادهToday all countries are seeking to achieve high productivity. This means that they can achieve more production with fewer resources. Productivity has an important and effective role in increasing production and growth in sectors of economy. Through calculating and analy MoreToday all countries are seeking to achieve high productivity. This means that they can achieve more production with fewer resources. Productivity has an important and effective role in increasing production and growth in sectors of economy. Through calculating and analyzing the indicators of productivity the efficiency of various economic sectors can be reviewed. In this study with a Solow residual and lag model, total factor productivity growth in agricultural production during the period 1387 - 1358 were calculated. For this purpose, the Agriculture crop sector production function with capital, labor and energy was estimated using the ARDL approach. Then, using the index of Solow, TFP growth in agriculture crop sector was calculated. The results showed that total factor productivity growth in agriculture crop sector had experienced periods of high volatility. So that the average period of 0.8 percent. The mean total factor productivity growth in crop sector of agriculture , with the figure predicted in the fourth program (2.2) are of significant difference. It is suggested that the cycle of productivity policy should be done, to increase TFP in this sub-sector of agriculture. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - The effect of foreign exchange policies to reduce the current account deficit (with emphasis on the financial crisis of 2008)
Samira Najafi Estamal Seyed Shamseddin Hosseini Abbas memarnejad Farhad GhaffariBackground: Exchange rate fluctuations and its deviation from the equilibrium path is one of the most important macroeconomic variables that affects different sectors of the economy from various aspects. Objective: This study was conducted with the aim of invest MoreBackground: Exchange rate fluctuations and its deviation from the equilibrium path is one of the most important macroeconomic variables that affects different sectors of the economy from various aspects. Objective: This study was conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of foreign exchange policies during the existence of a trade deficit in the financial crisis (crisis of 2008) on the total index of the stock exchange. Method: The present study was conducted using ARDL and VCEM approaches in terms of purpose, application and development. This study examines the relationship between exchange rates (as a control policy to reduce the current account deficit due to the 2008 crisis) and the overall index. Examines the Iranian Stock Exchange. To reduce the effect of the omitted potential variable, interest rates and external reserves are also included in this analysis. In this study, the self-return approach with distributive interrupt (Pesaran, 2001) has been used to investigate the long-run relationship between variables. Findings: Among the actions of governments in times of crises and deficits in the current account balance is the use of foreign exchange controls. Explaining the effects of the exchange rate due to the dependence of the stock market industries on the import of raw materials as well as the export of products on the overall index of the stock exchange is very important for policymakers and activists in this field. Conclusion: The results indicate that there is more compatibility between exchange rates and stock prices in critical periods than in quiet periods, in terms of integration in the long run and short-term causality. Also, the results of the implementation of foreign exchange policies, in order to improve the current account, confirm the J-curve. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Information and Communication Technology & capital market uncertainty
pouria rostami cheri Parvaneh SalatinInformation and Communication Technology (ICT) plays an important role in sharing information and greater participation in exchanges and buying and selling of investors' shares. Because the use of information and communication technology in financial markets, reducing m MoreInformation and Communication Technology (ICT) plays an important role in sharing information and greater participation in exchanges and buying and selling of investors' shares. Because the use of information and communication technology in financial markets, reducing marketing costs and increasing the participation of shareholders and investors and reduces information asymmetry. Therefore, the main purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the impact of ICT on capital market uncertainty in Iran. In this dissertation, GARCH method has been used to estimate the capital market uncertainty index. The results of ARDL model estimation using quarterly data in the period 2011: 1 to 2020: 4 (1390: 1399: 4) in the short and long term showed that the effect of the ratio of online or online transactions to the total volume of transactions to The title of ICT Index on capital market uncertainty in the long run and short term is different. This factor increases the excitement in the market and increases the uncertainty in the capital market in the short run. While continuing to increase trading in the long run, it increases market confidence and increases the expectation of profitability from the market and reduces capital market uncertainty. Other results of the model showed that inflation, economic growth and exchange rate have a significant effect on the performance uncertainty of the total stock exchange index as an indicator of capital market uncertainty. The results also show that the errors are sinusoidal adjusted and diverged, and it takes about 7.5 seasons on average to completely neutralize the imbalance in capital market uncertainty Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - The Effectof The Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment on Iranian Non-Oil Exports: The BEER approach
Alireza Kazerooni Zana Mozaffari Maryam Krimi Kandoleh Moslem AminiThe main objective of this study is to examine the effect of real effective exchange rate misalignment on Iranian non-oil exports over 1982 - 2013.For this purpose, the equilibrium real effective exchange rate has been estimated by BEER approach. The relevant literature MoreThe main objective of this study is to examine the effect of real effective exchange rate misalignment on Iranian non-oil exports over 1982 - 2013.For this purpose, the equilibrium real effective exchange rate has been estimated by BEER approach. The relevant literatures indicate that oil price, fiscal policy indicator, foreign capital flow, trade openness, and terms of trade are main determinants of the equilibrium exchange rate. Using Johansen test indicates that there exist a long run relationship between real exchange rate and other variables. By using predicted value of real effective exchange rate and observe exchange rate the misalignment of real effective exchange rate is calculated. The empirical result of the misalignment indicates that in 2006, the misalignment reached to highest point, 18.67 percent which presents the overvalued Iranian currency. Moreover, the results of estimation show that all explanatory variables in the long term have a significant effect on non-oil exports. In this regard, GDP has a positive impact; the misalignment of the real effective exchange rate, real exchange rate and the terms of trade have a negative and significant effect on the non-oil exports. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Testing the transmission of price fluctuations of physical assets to selected industries (Application of state space approach and ARDL model)
mahdi shaban habibollah nakhaei ghodratollah talebnia nazanin bashiri maneshThe purpose of this study is to test the transmission of price fluctuations of physical assets to the returns of selected industries including the chemical, pharmaceutical, food, construction and basic metals industries. For this purpose, the data of selected industries MoreThe purpose of this study is to test the transmission of price fluctuations of physical assets to the returns of selected industries including the chemical, pharmaceutical, food, construction and basic metals industries. For this purpose, the data of selected industries return index, dollar rate, Bahar Azadi coin price (representative of gold market), Iranian crude oil price and housing price from mid-December 2008 to March 2019 were prepared with daily frequency and using conditional heterogeneity variance method and state space approach and Kalman filter, conditional standard deviation of returns is considered as a measure of fluctuations. Then, using the ARDL method, how the fluctuations in the price of physical assets are transmitted to the index of returns of selected industries is described. The results show that the chemical industry from the fluctuations of the foreign exchange market, housing and gold, the pharmaceutical industry from the fluctuations of the oil, foreign exchange and housing markets, the construction materials industry from the fluctuations of the foreign exchange market, the food industry from the fluctuations of the oil market and the basic metals industry from the market fluctuations gold has a contagious linear system that provides evidence of information inefficiency in the Tehran Stock Exchange industry. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - تحلیل اثرات غیرخطی شوک سیاستهای پولی بر ارزش افزوده و اشتغال صنعت پتروشیمی در ایران
ابراهیم نصیری فر -
Open Access Article
7 - بررسی و تحلیل عوامل اقتصادی-اجتماعی مؤثر بر رشد جمعیت کشور
رضا رنجبران -
Open Access Article
8 - تحلیل اثرات کوتاهمدت و بلندمدت عوامل مؤثر بر ساختار تجارت در اقتصاد ایران کاربرد روش ARDL
سیده مروه ناصرصدرآبادی فرهاد غفاری تیمور محمدی عباس معمارنژاد -
Open Access Article
9 - تبیین آثار سیاست مالی و کسری بودجه بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران: نامتقارنی و غیرخطی بودن
سید علیرضا علوی باجگانی کامبیز پیکارجو کامبیز هژبر کیانی تقی ترابی -
Open Access Article
10 - بررسی اثرات پویای شوکهای سیاستهای پولی بر تولیدات صنعتی در ایران
ابراهیم نصیری فر -
Open Access Article
11 - مقایسه اثرات نامتقارن تغییرات حجم نقدینگی بر ارزش افزوده زیربخش های خدمات
مهناز حاله کامبیز هژبر کیانی فرید عسکری صادق علیپور -
Open Access Article
12 - اثرات فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات بر تولید ناخالص داخلی در ایران و مجموعه کشورهای حوزه خلیج فارس
اسماعیل سرآمد قرانقیه فرید عسکری فرزانه خلیلی عبدالرحیم هاشمی دیزج -
Open Access Article
13 - The estimation of exchange rate of (IRR-Dollars) based on Purchasing Power Parity and Monetary Approach
مهدی تقوی مهدیه مرادیThis research is an estimation of the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Iranian Rial, for the period between 1352 and 1387. Using ARDL method for hypothesis testing, and selecting the optimal model, the Mean Square Error (MSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) MoreThis research is an estimation of the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Iranian Rial, for the period between 1352 and 1387. Using ARDL method for hypothesis testing, and selecting the optimal model, the Mean Square Error (MSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are used to test our hypothesis. The selection of the optimal model for prediction is based on the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory and the Monetary Approach to Balance of Payment. The results of this study indicate that the PPP model is a more accurate indicator of the exchange rate, and is therefore preferred to the monetary approach. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
14 - Analysis of the role of research and development and the volume of imports on agricultural total factor productivity in Iran
علی باقرزاده اکبر کمیجانیAccording to development economists in the modern theory of economic growth, total factor productivity is affected by domestic research and development costs .It also depends on the accumulation of foreign R & D and the volume of imports. According to the results of MoreAccording to development economists in the modern theory of economic growth, total factor productivity is affected by domestic research and development costs .It also depends on the accumulation of foreign R & D and the volume of imports. According to the results of this research, total factor productivity in agriculture of Iran's is dependent on domestic and foreign R & D expenditures and the volume of imports from Partners. For this purpose, a model of agricultural total factor productivity to Iran with the help of ARDL econometrics approach and the time series between 1980 - 2010 was estimated. The results showed that effect of domestic research expenditures on agricultural productivity is less than of foreign investment in research and development. In this study, intermediate inputs and goods imports have a positive and significant impact on agricultural TFP in the long-term. Climatic conditions as a symbol of rain, has a positive effect on agricultural total factor productivity. Based on this model, it is suggested that a significant proportion of GDP allocated to domestic agricultural research. Furthermore, it is essential that agricultural imports from countries with a high volume of research and development to be done to enhance the size of productivity in this sector. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
15 - The study of effective economic factors on trade openness in IRAN under stable and nonstable conditions
Mohammadreza Mohammadvand Nahidi Parisa SagezchiIn this paper we attempt to identify the most important economic factors influencing the trade liberalization of Iran. The period of our study is from 1352 to 1386. The findings of our study indicate that based on ARDL and GARCH models there is a positive and mean MoreIn this paper we attempt to identify the most important economic factors influencing the trade liberalization of Iran. The period of our study is from 1352 to 1386. The findings of our study indicate that based on ARDL and GARCH models there is a positive and meaningful relation between the size of GDP and the degree of economic openness in Iran. However, Consumer Price index and Foreign Exchange rate have negate impact on economic liberalization Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
16 - بررسی تأثیر سیاستهای پولی و مالی بر اقتصاد ایران در بستری از رکود اقتصادی
زهرا فرجزاده اولقی محمد نقیبی -
Open Access Article
17 - Long-run and Short-run Effects of Monetary and Exchange Rate Variables on Stock Prices in Iran
عباس علویراد حمید حقنویسThe movement in the stock price index is an important indicator in the economic system of a country. The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run and short-run relations between Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) price index and monetary and exchange rate variables in MoreThe movement in the stock price index is an important indicator in the economic system of a country. The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run and short-run relations between Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) price index and monetary and exchange rate variables in Iran. We have used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach and Error Correction Model (ECM) to determine the effects of monetary and exchange rate variables on TSE price index in the long-run and short-run. This procedure for small sample will be the most appropriate. Quantitative estimates based on the time series monthly data from 2004 to 2009, indicate that liquidity (M2) has a positive effect on TSE price index in the long-run. But, free market exchange rate (FER) and legal reserve (LR) have a negative effect on TSE price index in the long-run. On the other hand, monetary variables have a significant effect on TSE price index in the short-run. However, the coefficient of the Error Correction Term (ECT) shows that the speed of adjustment is slow and the ECM can only explain 69 per cent of the fluctuations of TSE price index. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
18 - On the relationship between the size of Government and the Quality of Economic Growth
Akbar Komijani Kambiz Hozhabr Kiyani Hadi HaghshenaseThe goal of this paper is to investigate the role of government in promoting economic growth I Iran. We have used the ratio between government expenditure and gross national product (G/GDP) as a proxy of the size of government. To analyze the relationship, we have used MoreThe goal of this paper is to investigate the role of government in promoting economic growth I Iran. We have used the ratio between government expenditure and gross national product (G/GDP) as a proxy of the size of government. To analyze the relationship, we have used ARDL method, for both short-term and long-term growth for the period of 1368-1391. Our results indicate that the size of government in both situations has positive and significant effect on economic growth of Iran. However, the extent of government influence over the long- term effects is short-lived. JEL Classification:O26 , E58 Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
19 - Effect of Economic Stability on Demand for Money in Iran (1973‐2008)
رویا آل عمران فهیمه نصراله سیدعلی آل عمرانIn this survey, we study the impact of the economic stability on demandfor money in Iran. We use ARCH‐GARCH model to introduce an EconomicStability Index (ESI), which is a weighted average of variables such as grossdomestic product (GDP), foreign exchange rate, inflatio MoreIn this survey, we study the impact of the economic stability on demandfor money in Iran. We use ARCH‐GARCH model to introduce an EconomicStability Index (ESI), which is a weighted average of variables such as grossdomestic product (GDP), foreign exchange rate, inflation rate, long‐terminterest rate, and Stock Market Average Price Index.With the help our calculated ESI and employing the ARDL method weestimate the demand for money in Iran for the period of 1352‐1387. Theresults of our study show that the Economic Stability Index has a positiveimpact on demand for money in Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
20 - The Effect of Electricity Price Increase on Net Welfare of Different Income Groups: The Case of Iran
وحید فرمان آرا سید عبداله موسویThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of increasing electricity price on compensated variation (CV) and deadweight loss (DWL) of different income groups in Iran for 1981 – 2008 period. To do so, an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was MoreThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of increasing electricity price on compensated variation (CV) and deadweight loss (DWL) of different income groups in Iran for 1981 – 2008 period. To do so, an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used and five electricity demand functions were estimated in different income groups. Then on the basis of this estimation CV and DWL were calculated. The results of this research are as follows: By increasing electricity price and use direct subsidy, the welfare of low and middle income groups will increase.By increasing electricity price and use direct subsidy, the welfare of high income groups will decrease. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
21 - The effect of monetary policy on private sector investment in Iran (Using ARDL technique)
کامبیز پیکارجو پاتریس امیرخانی In today's world one of the objectives of any government is to achieve economic stability, soeconomic policy making should be suitable with the economic conditions that require the government conscious intervention to achieve macroeconomic goals. One of the basic More In today's world one of the objectives of any government is to achieve economic stability, soeconomic policy making should be suitable with the economic conditions that require the government conscious intervention to achieve macroeconomic goals. One of the basic and important principleseconomic policy of decision making is to examine the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the economic and non-economic variables. Monetary policy is now one of these policies that is used as a tool for achieving economic purposes in developing countries. Some analysts believe that the effect of economic shocks on macroeconomic variables such as production, inflation and unemployment, can be least, if we use the tools correctly. On the other hand, investment is a driving force for growth and development in the economic literature. In fact, one of the variables that can change in monetary policy changes, along with other macroeconomic variables changes, is investment. Private sector investment is a part of total investment that monetary policy can make many changes in it. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of monetary policy on private investment in Iran will be analyzed in this research during 1357-1389, via three variables: the liquidity, GDP and real interest rates. The results show that there is a significant positive relationship between liquidity and real interest rates on private investment, and also there is a significant negative relationship between GDP and private investment in the long run in Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
22 - Macroeconomic Determinants of Manufacturing Sector Performance in Nigeria: an Asymmetric Non-Linear Approach
Oluwaseyi Adelowokan Musa Olanrewaju Olanrewaju Oduola Rahmon Popoolac -
Open Access Article
23 - Analyzing the Asymmetric Impact of Air Pollution on Per Capita Health Expenditure in Iran
abolghasem Mohammadian MansourIntroduction: Air pollution from different channels leads to weakening of health and increasing demand for health care, and as a result, increasing per capita health expenditure. On the other hand, it is possible that the impact of air pollution on health costs is asymm MoreIntroduction: Air pollution from different channels leads to weakening of health and increasing demand for health care, and as a result, increasing per capita health expenditure. On the other hand, it is possible that the impact of air pollution on health costs is asymmetric; In this sense, the effectiveness of health costs from increasing and decreasing the air pollution is not the same. Based on this, the main purpose of this study is to experimentally estimate the asymmetric effect of air pollution index on per capita health expenditure in Iran.Methods: The present descriptive-analytical and applied study using the time series data during the period of 1989-2020, investigated the short-term and long-term effects of positive and negative air pollution shocks, per capita income, dependency burden, and urbanization on per capita health expenditure. The data used were also collected from the Central bank of Islamic Republic of Iran database and World Development Indicators belonging to the World Bank. Also, the model was estimated in the form of a regression model using the Non-linear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) method in Eviews 12.0 software.Results: The results show that in the short and long term, the effect of positive air pollution index shocks on the increase of health expenditure per capita is greater than the effect of its negative shocks on the decrease of health expenditure per capita (confirmation of asymmetric effect). With a one percent increase in CO2 emissions, in the long and short term, per capita health expenditure will increase by about 0.18 and 0.04 percent, respectively. On the other hand, with a one percent reduction in CO2 emissions, in the long and short term, per capita health expenditure will decrease by 0.06 and 0.01 percent, respectively.Conclusion: Considering that the effect of increasing shocks of air pollution on health costs is much greater than the effect of decreasing shocks, adopting policies and strategies to prevent the increase of air pollution emissions in the current period can help reduce future additional per capita costs in the health sector. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
24 - The Effect of Positive and Negative Public Health Expenditure Shocks during Business Cycles on Health Status in Iran
Azadeh Jahantabi Nejad abolghasem golkhandanIntroduction: The impact of positive and negative shocks or the asymmetric impact of public health expenditures during periods of recession and boom (business cycles) on health status is of particular importance in terms of making appropriate decisions in the field of c MoreIntroduction: The impact of positive and negative shocks or the asymmetric impact of public health expenditures during periods of recession and boom (business cycles) on health status is of particular importance in terms of making appropriate decisions in the field of controlling the vulnerability of the lower classes of society in these periods. Based on this, the main purpose of this study is to estimate the asymmetric effect of public health expenditures on the health status in Iran during periods of recession and boom. Methods: The present descriptive-analytical and applied study using the time series data during the period of 1979-2020, investigated the long-term effects of positive and negative public health expenditures shocks during business cycles, per capita income and physician per capita on the death rate of children under 5 years and life expectancy. Filtering approach and three filters HP, BK and CF have been used to identify business cycles. Also, the models were estimated in the form of a regression model using the Non-linear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) method in Eviews 12.0 software.Results: The results show that the public health expenditure had a pro-cyclical behavior during the period under review. In the long-term, the effect of negative public health expenditure shocks during business cycles on weakening health indicators is greater than the effect of its positive shocks on strengthening health indicators (confirmation of asymmetric effect). Also, the impact of positive and negative shocks on public health expenditures during periods of economic recession is greater than during periods of economic boom. With a 1% decrease in public health expenditures during periods of economic recession, the death rate of children under 5 years increases by 0.17% and the life expectancy decreases by 0.13%.Conclusion: Based on the results of this research, it is recommended to increase public health expenditures during periods of economic recession in order to reduce the vulnerability of the lower classes of society. But, considering the pro-cyclical behavior of public health expenditures, it is necessary to adopt policies and solutions to reduce the intensity of this behavior. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
25 - The effect of trade liberalization on economic growth in Iran
AhmadAli AsadpourBesides trade Globalization with the countries joining the global economy over time Issue is that different countries are considered by economists. Therefore, this study examines the factors affecting economic growth, including trade Globalization can be addressed. For MoreBesides trade Globalization with the countries joining the global economy over time Issue is that different countries are considered by economists. Therefore, this study examines the factors affecting economic growth, including trade Globalization can be addressed. For the purpose of statistical time series and by the year 1360 to 1393 and using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Method (ARDL) was used. Also check the causality relationship between trade Globalization and economic growth in the long term and short term error correction model was used to test causality.Results from this study showed positive and significant impact variables, the natural logarithm of total investment, Natural logarithm of the total number of labor and trade Globalization on growth rate economy in the short term and long term. The Wald test on coefficients using error correction model, this result was achieved always in the short term and long-term causality of trade Globalization to economic growth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
26 - The Relationship between Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Iran
MohammadSharif Karimi Kiomars Sohaili Shima BarzegariBackground and Objective: Iran is one of the examples of growth patterns relying on natural resources, especially fossil fuels. Considering the end of the oil and gas resources of the country, from now on, there should be alternative sources of thought. One way of doing MoreBackground and Objective: Iran is one of the examples of growth patterns relying on natural resources, especially fossil fuels. Considering the end of the oil and gas resources of the country, from now on, there should be alternative sources of thought. One way of doing this is to using renewable energies instead of fossil fuels. From the point of view of energy economy, it is logical to create diversification in energy sources and utilize a basket of different fuels. Also, production-related pollution is expected to decrease as well by increasing the use of renewable energy. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Iran using ARDL bounds and VECM. Method: In this study, using the Eviews 9 software and the ARDL Bounds econometric method and the VECM model, a case study of Iran in the years 1981 to 2014 has been conducted. Findings: The results show that there is no causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in the long run, and there is only one-way relationship between labor force and economic growth. But in the short run, there is a one-way relationship between economic growth and renewable energy use, as well as a one-way relationship between labor force and economic growth, renewable energy consumption and capital. Investigating the short-run dynamics of the pattern using instantaneous response functions showed that the shock eventually vanishes and often affects the response variable positively. Therefore, in the long run, shocks from independent variables, such as renewable energy consumption per capita, will be balanced against economic growth. Discussion and Conclusion: Considering the positive and statistically significant effects of renewable energy, capital and labor force variables on economic growth in Iran, it is suggested that by saving energy consumption, improving production technologies, reducing costs, the use of new energies, the promotion of appropriate and efficient policies and the creation of supportive laws will increase the use of renewable energy, which has a major role in the economy and the environment. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
27 - Factors Affecting the Consumption of Ecological Resources in Iran Using Economic Approach
Morteza Molaei Ehsan Besharat Mehrdad MohammadiBackground and Objective: The objective of this study is the investigation of factors affecting Ecological Footprint and testing Pollution Haven and Environmental Kuznets’ Curve hypotheses. Method: In this study, after introducing ecological footprint as an indic MoreBackground and Objective: The objective of this study is the investigation of factors affecting Ecological Footprint and testing Pollution Haven and Environmental Kuznets’ Curve hypotheses. Method: In this study, after introducing ecological footprint as an indicator of natural resources degradation, factors affecting it is investigated in the form of natural resources degradation model for the period 1965-2011 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model; and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and Pollution Haven hypotheses were tested. In this study, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), free trade index, urbanization, human development index, development of financial markets index were used as factors affecting the ecological footprint. Findings: Results show that per capita GDP, free trade, development of financial markets and urbanization have positive and significant impacts in long and short term periods, but human development has negative and significant impact on ecological footprint. These results confirmed Pollution Haven hypothesis; but the EKC hypothesis is not confirmed and the relationship between income and ecological footprint is in the form of N. The coefficient of Error Correction is negative and significant which represent the long run equilibrium. The coefficient is -0.99 meaning that ecological footprint corrects its previous period disequilibrium at a speed of 99% annually to reach at the steady state. Discussion and Conclusion: According to the results of this study, economic growth in Iran leads to more natural resources degradation. Therefore, governments should pay special attention to development programs in order to be sustainable. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
28 - Investigation of Environmental Kuznets Curve for N2O Gas Emissions in Iran by ARDL Model
Mehdi Sadeghi Shahdani Aliakbar Mohammadi Samchouli Mohammad Javad Rastegari KoupaeiBackground and Objective: Climate change, such as the increase in hazardous N2O greenhouse gas, is always associated with various economic and developmental consequences. The environmental Kuznets curve indicates that the increase in greenhouse gases emissions until a c MoreBackground and Objective: Climate change, such as the increase in hazardous N2O greenhouse gas, is always associated with various economic and developmental consequences. The environmental Kuznets curve indicates that the increase in greenhouse gases emissions until a country's development is directly related to that country's level of production and inversely related after development. The purpose of this study is to investigate the environmental Kuznets curve for N2O greenhouse gas emissions in Iran. Material and Methodology: The method of answering this problem is quantitative and through econometric analysis of time series data in the period 1960 to 2017 and the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) has been used to study and analyze variables. Findings: The results of the dynamic model show us that the area under cultivation has a negative effect and gross domestic product (GDP) and exports have a positive effect on N2O emissions. GDP2 also has a sign opposite to its root, and the inverse quadratic relation is established. As a result, the assumption of the Kuznets curve in Iran isn’t rejected. Discussion and Conclusion: The maximum point of the chart for Iran in terms of GDP per capita will be around $7,500. Therefore, if we go beyond this amount, N2O emissions will decrease. At present, the country's GDP per capita is about $6,900 and we are on the upward trajectory of the Kuznets Curve. As a result, reducing N2O emissions will have a negative impact on Iran's growth. Thus, it isn’t possible to implement some policies to reduce these greenhouse gas emissions without major consequences in various sectors of the economy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
29 - Response of Carbon Dioxide Emissions to Output Shocks in Large Asian Emitters
Somayeh Azami Fatemeh AbasiBackground and Objective: According to Kaya's identity, there is a relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and output. The aim of this study is to investigate the non-linear or asymmetric effect of output on CO2 emissions. Material and Methodology: The PNARD MoreBackground and Objective: According to Kaya's identity, there is a relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and output. The aim of this study is to investigate the non-linear or asymmetric effect of output on CO2 emissions. Material and Methodology: The PNARDL model is used to investigate the response of carbon dioxide emissions to output shocks in major Asian polluters; India, Japan, Iran, Saudi Arabia and South Korea in the time interval of 1960-2020. Findings: Examining the time path shows that CO2 emissions and GDP of countries are co-movement. The tests show the long-run relationship between these two variables. The non-linear causality test indicates the existence of a one-way causal relationship from positive and negative output shocks to CO2 emissions. In the long-run, CO2 emissions increase as output increases and decrease as output decreases. Short-run dynamics show that positive output shocks of the current and past period significantly lead to an increase in CO2 emissions. Negative output shocks of the current and past periods significantly increase and decrease CO2 emissions, respectively. The estimation of the adjustment speed coefficient indicates that the adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium is slow. Discussion and Conclusion: Investigating the relationship between output and CO2 emissions plays an important role in environmental policies. The speed of adjustment (from short-run to long-run) is slow and the short-run impact of negative output shocks of the current period on emissions should be taken into consideration by the environmental policy makers of the studied countries. In the conditions of output reduction, strict environmental policies should not be stopped immediately. Considering the positive and significant effect of positive production shocks on emissions in the short-run and in the long-run, it is recommended to increase energy efficiency and increase the share of renewable energy in the total energy consumption of countries (substitution of renewable energy instead of fossil energy). Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
30 - Application of Pollution Haven Hypothesis in identifying dirty industries Evidence of iran-china commercial relationship
Reza Akhbari Hamid AmadehBackground and Objective: In all societies, economic growth and development appear kind of main goal but they also have negative side effects on other fields such as environment. In recent year, lots of discussion about negative side effects of globalization and free tr MoreBackground and Objective: In all societies, economic growth and development appear kind of main goal but they also have negative side effects on other fields such as environment. In recent year, lots of discussion about negative side effects of globalization and free trade without restrictions has been done and with proposing the Pollution Haven Hypothesis (PHH), the massive share of trade and the importance of globalization in transferring pollutants have been revealed. Method: In this study we used ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag) approach to cointegration and bounds test to identify long run relationships between variables in the PHH models about Iran-China trade relationship. All data that we used are in time series format and including 1987-2004. We separate dirty industry from green ones by ISIC codes. Four codes about dirty industries were identified and based on them we present five models that included four models for each ISIC codes that were introduced and one models to examine this subject that if all for goods were aggregated, can the PHH still true? Findings: Results show that Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is N shaped, the share of manufacturing products in CO2 emission is enormous, PHH from Iran to China is accepted about 34 and 35 ISIC codes, dirty industries that we export their products are pollution intensive about 35 and 36 ISIC codes. Discussion and Conclusion: The evidence highlights the need to look at the imported goods related to dirty industries in details because now it is clear that PHH may be existed if the examination was perform in the detailed level with looking at dirty industries. This approach to investigating of PHH can help policy makers to identify the green and dirty industries exactly and improve the environmental condition that we live in. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
31 - Impact of Population Ageing on Environmental Pollution in Iran
Navid Kargar Dehbidi * Mohammad Hassan TarazkarAbstract Background and Objective: The world’s population is ageing and virtually every country in the world is experiencing growth in the number and proportion of older persons in its population. It is predicted that old population will double from 2015 to 2030 i MoreAbstract Background and Objective: The world’s population is ageing and virtually every country in the world is experiencing growth in the number and proportion of older persons in its population. It is predicted that old population will double from 2015 to 2030 in Iran. Actually, more than half of the world’s population lives in urban areas, and urbanization rate is over 70% in Iran. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of population ageing and urbanization on air pollution over the period of 1971 to 2013 in Iran. Method: In this study, based on the results of variables stationary, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was applied. Findings: The results revealed that the relationship between old population and CO2 emission per capita is inverted U-shaped and statistically significant, and CO2 emission initially increases with the increase of old population and then drops with the increase of old population. Moreover, the results imply that a relative increase in urbanization in the short and long terms is associated with the increase of CO2 emissions per capita. It was also found that gross domestic production and energy consumption per capita positively affect CO2 emissions per capita in the short and long terms. Technological advances have a significant positive effect on per capita CO2 emissions in the long term. Discussion and Conclusion: In this study, according to the urbanization coefficient which has the greatest influence on pollution emissions (3.63 in the long term), the measures should be taken by policymakers to minimize the damage of urbanization growth to the environment. In other words, urban development plans should be designed in harmony with the environmental issues. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
32 - The Effect of population growth, human capital and petroleum products on environmental pollution in Iran
Ali salmanpourAbstract Background and Objective: Survey environmental pollution is an important issue of environmental economics. Environmental pollution is the most important problem facing humanity in the present age. With increasing population, the rate of changes in the environme MoreAbstract Background and Objective: Survey environmental pollution is an important issue of environmental economics. Environmental pollution is the most important problem facing humanity in the present age. With increasing population, the rate of changes in the environment intensifies especially if the population does not have knowledge of how to protect the environment, this problem increases. The role of human resources in the production process and therefore the quality of the environment from the perspective of economic theory, have been significant changes over time. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of petroleum products, human capital and the population on environmental pollution in the Iranian economy during the 1357 to 1393. Method: In this study, Environmental pollution model is estimated by using an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL), this model, CO2 emissions are considered as indicators of environmental pollution. Findings: The findings of the long-term model show Banerjee, Dorado and Master t-test, for models was -3.35 and long-term relationship between variables was confirmed. Including error correction model coefficients showed that 41.53 percent of imbalance is a period of adjustment in the next period. The model tries to adjust its medium speed. Discussion and Conclusion: The results show a positive relationship between oil consumption, population and national income on environmental pollution. The results showed a negative relationship between human capital and environmental pollution as well. Therefore, it is suggested by reducing the consumption of petroleum products subsidies and to encourage consumers to use clean energy reduce the amount of environmental pollution. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
33 - Investigating the Asymmetric Relationship between Oil Price and the Covid-19 Pandemic with Trading Value on the Stock Exchange
masoumeh dadgar vida varahramiForecasting the stock market in each period has been difficult and the value of stock trading has been affected by various factors. Among these factors have been the oil and gas sector, especially in countries that depend on the revenue from their sales. On the other ha MoreForecasting the stock market in each period has been difficult and the value of stock trading has been affected by various factors. Among these factors have been the oil and gas sector, especially in countries that depend on the revenue from their sales. On the other hand, the outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic has led to profound changes in both areas. Therefore, in this article, the relationship between oil prices and the Iranian stock market is examined with respect to the prevalence of the Corona pandemic. Understanding the behavior dynamics of the stock exchange value index can help to more accurately predict the future behavior of this variable. Accordingly, the main purpose of this paper is to analyze the asymmetric relationship between oil prices, as well as the simultaneous impact of the corona pandemic news and the rate of corona virus infection on the value of the Iranian stock exchange. In the present paper, nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) in the time period (1399: 05: 15-1398: 11: 30) has been used. The results show that in the long run, rising oil prices have a significant asymmetric effect on stock exchange value. On the other hand, in the short run, the rate of Covid-19 patients has a positive relationship without meaning and the Covid-19 media index has a negative relationship with meaning with the value of stock exchange trading. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
34 - Investigation of the role of macroeconomic variables in Tehran Stock Exchange uncertainty using risk filtering, MCMC simulation and ARDL approaches.
Amir Sarabadani Ali Baghani mohsen hamidian Ghodratollah Emamverdi Norooz NoroolahzadehAbstractIn the present study a new total uncertainty criterion in Tehran Stock Exchange was estimated and the impact of macroeconomic variables on this uncertainty was addressed. Risk filtering with an approach to GDFM was first used to detect specific component of 25 t MoreAbstractIn the present study a new total uncertainty criterion in Tehran Stock Exchange was estimated and the impact of macroeconomic variables on this uncertainty was addressed. Risk filtering with an approach to GDFM was first used to detect specific component of 25 time series of the main indices of the Tehran Stock Exchange over 10 years. In the next step, the conditional volatility of the remaining time series’ specific components were estimated using Stochastic volatility (SV) model and finally conditional volatility simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach was averaged to obtain total uncertainty of the Tehran Stock exchange. The ARDL results showed that Tehran Stock Exchange uncertainty is dependent on independent variables such as inflation rate, banks' real interest rate, exchange rate in free Exchange market, liquidity, tax revenue and oil price. According to the results, however, no significant correlation exists between unemployment rate and stock market uncertainty. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
35 - Examining the Effect of Shocks in Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Value Added of Industry and Mining Sector in Iran
Alireza Baradaran Gholamreza ZomorodianIndustry is one of the important parts of the countrys economic that attention to it is the goals of developed and developing countries. In Iran, according to the Statistics, Industries and Mines sector has been allocated about 25 percent of GDP to itself. Despite this MoreIndustry is one of the important parts of the countrys economic that attention to it is the goals of developed and developing countries. In Iran, according to the Statistics, Industries and Mines sector has been allocated about 25 percent of GDP to itself. Despite this contribution, the industry during the implementation of development programs and policies of adjustment and stabilization has been effected from macro-economic policies, especially monetary and fiscal policies. With this approach, the present study has been investigated the effect of shocks in monetary and fiscal policy on value added of industry and mining sector in Iran during 1991-2013. To reach this goal, firstly the monetary and fiscal policy shocks was modeled in framework of Hodrick and Prescott filter. Then using the ARDL model, the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on value added of industry and mining sector along with variables such as net capital stock of industries and mines, labor employed in this sector and the costs of education were examined. The results of this study showed that a positive shock of monetary and fiscal policy has a direct impact on the value added of industry sector; But the negative shock of monetary and fiscal policy, has a negative effect on the value added of the industry. The results also revealed that the capital stock and labor employed in industry and mining sector have a positive effect on the value added of this sector. Accordingly, it can be said that 10 percent increase in the capital stock and labor, increase the value-added of industry sector 7.3 and 5.6 percent in the long term, respectively. Finally, the results indicated that per capita government spending on education has also a positive impact on the value added of industry sector; So that 10 percent increase in per capita government spending, increase the value-added of industry sector 3.4 percent in the long term. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
36 - The Effect of Financial Depth on Stock Return: The Bounds Testing Approach
Saman Ghaderi Saman Rahmani NoroozabadFinancial depth is one of the requirements of financial development. Countries whit the greater depth, financial resources are efficiently allocated between needs and can lead to greater efficiency and proper functioning of economic sectors. The purpose of this study is MoreFinancial depth is one of the requirements of financial development. Countries whit the greater depth, financial resources are efficiently allocated between needs and can lead to greater efficiency and proper functioning of economic sectors. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of financial depth on stock returns. In this regard, the ratio of liquidity to GDP is employed as indicator of financial depth. Also, among the other macroeconomic variables affecting the stock return, inflation, market exchange rate and oil revenues are considered. This study applies the Bounds test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models for Iranian economic during 1997-2015. The results provide a positive relationship between financial depth and stock return but insignificant. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
37 - The impact of financial and money market developments on foreign direct investment in Iran
Gholamreza Zomorodian Farhad Hanifi Babak MahboubiForeign direct investment is one of the most important economic variables that due to its features can have a positive impact on economic growth. It will be useful Identifying the factors effecting foreign investment in countries that have failed in good use of FDI. In MoreForeign direct investment is one of the most important economic variables that due to its features can have a positive impact on economic growth. It will be useful Identifying the factors effecting foreign investment in countries that have failed in good use of FDI. In this paper, we investigate the effects of financial markets (money and capital markets) on foreign direct investment in Iran’s Economy during the period 1350 to 1393 ; using the form of an econometric model and a Auto Regressive Distributed Lag method. The results show that firstly long-term balance for foreign direct investment is established. Second, In the short-term development of financial markets has a direct positive impact on foreign investment; This impression is confirmed in long term money markets, but the market will not be approved. Third, the real exchange rate and the development of money and capital market has a positive impact and Conversely, capital stock, tariffrates and the nominal wage index has a negative impact on foreign investors. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
38 - Investigating the Short-Term and Long-Term Effects of Real Currency Value on Iran's Stock Exchange
Masoume Karimi Gholamreza ZomorodianMoney and monetary policy, on the one hand, are the source of economic activity and on the other hand, the value of money and the speed of its circulation are influenced by the conditions and economic activities. According to many scholars, the criterion of the importan MoreMoney and monetary policy, on the one hand, are the source of economic activity and on the other hand, the value of money and the speed of its circulation are influenced by the conditions and economic activities. According to many scholars, the criterion of the importance of money is that it can have a decisive impact on the economical structure of the countries. Along with this approach the present study is looking for to determine and quantify the effect of the real value of money on Iran's gross domestic product, it will be a useful guide for policy makers to properly plan future programs. According to objectives this research is practical and according to the methodology inductive reasoning and the research design is retrospective study; the time period for doing this research is 1991- 2016. In this study, inferential statistics were used to analyze the relationship between variables. Accordingly, based on theoretical foundations and various studies which have been carried out both inside and outside the country, all the variables that influenced the Iran Stock Exchange were identified.In the following, according to the statistical characteristics of the variables, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) was selected as an appropriate econometric model. Based on the real value of money, short-term and long-term money does not have a significant effect on gross domestic product; but government expenditures, exports, imports and exchange rates have a positive and significant impact on Iran Stock Exchange over the short term and in the long termperiod. The results also indicated that the error correction model (ECM) coefficient in the study was about 0. 347; in other words, about 34.7 percent of the Iran Stock Exchange's imbalance variable from its long-term values disappears after a period of time. Accordingly, if the Iran Stock Exchange exits from the initial equilibrium due to the shock, 3 courses of time are needed to correct short-term imbalances and gross domestic product will return to the original long-term equilibrium. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
39 - The study of the effective factors on investment in private sector in Iran “With emphasis on uncertainty”
Z. Rozeei T. Akhondzadeh G. Sameei -
Open Access Article
40 - Analysis the Kuznets Curve in industry sector of Iran
Roya SeifipourAbstractBackground and Purpose: In the development process, economic activities are associated with positive and negative environmental effects in countries. What is observed physically and in the present is the production of the product and the resulting growth in econ MoreAbstractBackground and Purpose: In the development process, economic activities are associated with positive and negative environmental effects in countries. What is observed physically and in the present is the production of the product and the resulting growth in economic activities. While by assessing the environmental activities of economic activities and recognizing its direct and indirect negative effects on society now and in the future, the net effects of economic activities can be identified.Material and Methodology: The industrial sector is fundamental to economic growth. The industrial sector's share of total economic activity equals 16 percent. Sometimes its activities are accompanied by the destruction of the environment. This article examines the factors affecting CO2 emissions with an emphasis on the industrial sector by using the ARDL and FMOLS methods for the years 94-1360.Finding: The results of this study confirm EKC Technology. In other words, by increasing the value added of industry, the emission increases but its slope decreases (inverse u shape). With increasing fossil fuel consumption and globalization, emissions will increase.Discussion and Conclusion: Compare the results of the short-run and long-run model showing the sensitivity of Co2 emissions to fossil fuel consumption and the long run globalization index is larger than the short run. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
41 - Investigation the Effects of Structural Changes and Economic Growth on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Iran: Application of the ARDL Model
Mohammad Ali Asaadi Shahla Salimi Hamed GhaderzadehBackground and Objective: Different factors can cause increasing air contamination such as CO2. Understanding factors affecting atmosphere gaseous change is important for management and reducing air contaminants. Therefore the current study attempted to investigate the MoreBackground and Objective: Different factors can cause increasing air contamination such as CO2. Understanding factors affecting atmosphere gaseous change is important for management and reducing air contaminants. Therefore the current study attempted to investigate the effect of growth amount of value added in different economic sector, economic growth, energy consumption, urbanization growth, opening trade grade and financial development on diffusion of carbon dioxide. Material and Methodology: The environmental pollution estimated using the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and error correction method (ECM) for Iran in the during 1985-2017. In addition, the long run relationship between model variables, short run dynamics of the model and the speed of adjustment of short run imbalances to long run estimated. Findings: The findings of the long-term model showed that the growth of urbanization with a value of 0.527% had the most positive effect and the degree of trade openness with a value of 0.125% had the least negative effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Discussion and conclusion: The results of this study show the negative effect of economic growth on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions in the long term, that in each period, about 14% of the imbalances of the instability of the amount of carbon dioxide emissions are resolved, and about seven The period is necessary for the short-term balance error to be adjusted and the model to return to the long-term balance, and also the presence of a positive relationship between the growth of the country's economic sub-sectors and the emission of carbon dioxide in the short-term and long-term will increase this pollutant. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
42 - تحلیل اثر نابرابری درآمد بر کیفیت محیط زیست در ایران (با ارائه یک مدل کاربردی در برنامهریزی محیطی)
محمد خیری وحید دهباشی هادی اسماعیل پورمقدم -
Open Access Article
43 - An Analysis of the Effect of Different Types of Tax on Production and Inflation with an Emphasis on Value-Added Tax and Income Tax
Omid Ahmadi Arash Jahangiri Babadi khatereh AlemiPurpose: The purpose of the present study is to recognize and analyze short-term and long-term effects of income tax and value-added tax on these 2 macroeconomic criteria from 1991 to 2021. Considering the result of the unit root test and the stationarity of the variabl MorePurpose: The purpose of the present study is to recognize and analyze short-term and long-term effects of income tax and value-added tax on these 2 macroeconomic criteria from 1991 to 2021. Considering the result of the unit root test and the stationarity of the variables at the level and with an interval, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method was used to estimate the coefficients.Results: The results show that both models (dependent variable of the first model: inflation, dependent variable of the second model: gross domestic product) have long-term relation. In the first model, the results indicate that taxes have inflationary effects in the long term. On the other hand, contrary to the expectation of some experts, imposing taxes would improve GDP in the long term. Moreover, the value of ECT (-1) for both models is as expected and equal to -0.775 and-0.901 which means returning to long-term balance in less than 2 periods after the shock.Conclusion: It is suggested that by studying other macroeconomic variables, more attention will be paid to their evaluation and effectiveness on the variables of macroeconomics. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
44 - Analysis of the Asymmetric Effect of Exchange and Bank Facility Rates on Labor Productivity in Iran: NARDL Approach
Saeed Dehghan Manshadi Mohsen Zayandehroodi Abdolmajid Jalaee -
Open Access Article
45 - Asymmetric effects of changes in liquidity volume on the added value of transportation, warehousing and communication
مهناز حاله کامبیز هژبرکیانی فرید عسگری محمدصادق علیپورAbstractOne of the important and effective success factors in development planning is the knowledge of the structure and potential of different sectors in the economy. Transportation, warehousing and communication sub-sectors are among the sectors of the country's econo MoreAbstractOne of the important and effective success factors in development planning is the knowledge of the structure and potential of different sectors in the economy. Transportation, warehousing and communication sub-sectors are among the sectors of the country's economy, which have a significant share in the gross national product, and therefore, the factors affecting its added value should be considered by economic policy makers. On the other hand, in the direction of formulation and macro-economic decisions, the amount and direction of influence (symmetry or asymmetry) of monetary policies, including changes in the volume of liquidity, on macro-variables has always been the concern of economic policymakers. Therefore, in the upcoming study, we will dynamically examine the direction and degree of influence of the added value of the transportation, warehousing and communication sub-sector from asymmetric changes in the volume of liquidity using time series data annually during the period 1363 to 1398 and for For this purpose, the autoregression model with non-linear distribution breaks and the edge test approach have been used. The results show that there is a long-term relationship (collinearity) between the variables of the model, and the shocks of changes in the volume of liquidity in the studied model have an asymmetric effect and have larger coefficients in the long run. Based on other research results, the interest rate of bank loans on the added value of this sub-sector is positive and significant, and the elasticity of the added value of the mentioned sub-sector in the investigated model is higher than the interest rate of bank loans in relation to the changes in the volume of liquidity in the short and long term. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
46 - بررسی تأثیر تحریم بر وضعیت اشتغال زنان در ایران
دکتر سید علی پایتختی اسکویی لاله طبقچی اکبری -
Open Access Article
47 - A study on the apparent dental disorders in the horses of Tabriz area
علی Hasanpour s.m Deljo مجید Ebrahimi-Hamed This study was done to evaluate apparent dental disorders of horses in Tabriz area. Among the 120 horses evaluated, 65.83% had dental disorders. The most prevalent dental disorder observed was dental tartar (65.22%) while dental caries w More This study was done to evaluate apparent dental disorders of horses in Tabriz area. Among the 120 horses evaluated, 65.83% had dental disorders. The most prevalent dental disorder observed was dental tartar (65.22%) while dental caries was the least prevalent (5.43%). The occurrence of dental tartar was significantly higher than the other disorders (p<0.01). Arab horses had the greatest number of dental disorders but they had no significant difference in comparison with the other breeds. The relationship between age and prevalence of dental disorders was considered significant with a regression coefficient of r=0. 873 (p<0.05). Dental wear was the most prevalent type of dental disorder observed in horses that had the abnormal behavior of crib- biting and there was a significant relationship between the presence of dental wear and crib- biting (p<0.01) (r=0.736). Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
48 - The Effect of Productivity and Unemployment Rate on Wages in the Economy of Iran from 1971 to 2016: The ARDL Approach
samad karrari Mustafa ErsungurThe study of the relationship between wage and macro variables of productivity and unemployment, as the link in employment economy, is of particular importance in the economy of Iran. The present study was conducted with the aim of offering a dynamic pattern for examini MoreThe study of the relationship between wage and macro variables of productivity and unemployment, as the link in employment economy, is of particular importance in the economy of Iran. The present study was conducted with the aim of offering a dynamic pattern for examining the effects of productivity, unemployment, training, and inflation on wage rate between 1971 and 2016. To this end, the ARDL Dynamic Model, along with short-term and long-term methods and error correction model, was employed. The results of estimating the research model indicated both short-term and long-term relationships among the research variables. Moreover, inflation rate, productivity and training were found to be positively and significantly correlated in such a way that an increase in training and productivity was found to promote a parallel raise the work force rage. However, unemployment was found to have a negative effect on the rate of workforce wage. Besides, the obtained results of the error correction model used to analyze short-term and long-term relationship indicated an error correction coefficient of-0.30. In addition, the current difference of wage rate in the short run was found to be significantly affected by the current difference between productivity of the workforce and the inflation rate but not by the current difference of training. Finally, the current difference of wage rate was found to be negatively and significantly affected in the short run by the current difference of unemployment rate. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
49 - Presenting a model of the Impact of Economic Variables on the Total Productivity Index in Iran
Ali SHAHINPOUR Kerem KarabulutProductivity means maximizing scientifically the use of resources, manpower, facilities, and the like, reducing production costs, expanding markets, increasing employment and striving to increase real wages and living standards as they benefit workers, management, and s MoreProductivity means maximizing scientifically the use of resources, manpower, facilities, and the like, reducing production costs, expanding markets, increasing employment and striving to increase real wages and living standards as they benefit workers, management, and society. Due to limited resources and unlimited needs, improving productivity, along with population growth and fierce competition in the global economy, is not a choice but an inevitable necessity. The present study set out to investigate the effect of economic variables on the total productivity index in Iran over the period of 1999 to 2017, employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The findings indicated the significant positive effect of Qarz al-Hasna facility balance, exchange contract facility balance and partnership contracts facility balance as the components of Islamic banking facilities on the Total Productivity Index. Accordingly, it can be concluded that Islamic banking facilities have a positive effect on the Total Productivity Index in Iran, both in the short and long term. In the short and long term, real GDP (economic growth) was found to have a positive effect on the Total Productivity Index. The effect of inflation and the official exchange rate on the total Productivity Index was negative and statistically significant in the short run, after one year, and in the long run. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
50 - Impact of Globalization and Economic Sanctions on Human Capital in Iran
Seyedeh Safia Hosseini Yazdi Mostafa Emadzadeh Saeed Daei Karimzadeh -
Open Access Article
51 - The effects of Total Factor Productivity on Employment in Iranian Manufacturing Industries
shima sangsari mohammadgholi yousefy hamid amadehThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of total productivity factors on employment in Iran's industrial sectors using Autoregressive distributed lag and error correction model over the period 1996-2016. In modeling, industries are categorized into three gro MoreThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of total productivity factors on employment in Iran's industrial sectors using Autoregressive distributed lag and error correction model over the period 1996-2016. In modeling, industries are categorized into three groups of low-technology, Medium Low Technology, and Medium High Technology industries. The results show a significant and negative impact of total factor productivity on employment in Total industries and Medium High Technology industries that means meaning that the increase in total productivity factors in short and long term reduces total employment of Medium High Technology industries. In addition, total factor productivity has a negative effect on employment in low Technology and Medium Low Technology, meaning that increasing productivity in both the short and long run reduces employment in low-tech and medium-low industries. According to the results, increasing the skill and Workforce expertise and new Machinery can lead to increased productivity in the employment of Iranian industries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
52 - Modeling the Substitution Effects of Taxes on the Size of the Shadow Economy (An Empirical Application for the Iranian Economy)
Mahboobeh FarahatiThe purpose of this study is to examine the effects of substituting different tax items for each other (or changes in tax mix) on the size of the shadow economy in Iran. To this end, a proposed model is estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) appr MoreThe purpose of this study is to examine the effects of substituting different tax items for each other (or changes in tax mix) on the size of the shadow economy in Iran. To this end, a proposed model is estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach for the period 1355-1394. The results show that the substitution of company tax for income tax or commodities tax as well as the substitution of wealth tax for income tax, commodities tax, company tax or import tax reduce the size of the shadow economy. In addition, the substitution of import tax for income tax, corporate tax, or commodities tax leads to a decrease in the size of the shadow economy, while the substitution of commodities tax for income tax has no significant effect on the activities of this sector. The results of this study provide a good basis for adjusting the tax mix to reduce or limit the shadow economy sector in Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
53 - The Effects of Diversification of Industrial Exports on the Instability of Foreign Exchange Earnings in Iran's Industrial
hooman nasiri masoud nonezhad Ali Haghighat Mehrzad EbrahimiThe main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the export diversification in the top industrial sub-sectors and its impact on the volatility of foreign exchange earnings in Iran's industrial sector. Accordingly, quarterly data from 2002-2 to 2 MoreThe main purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the export diversification in the top industrial sub-sectors and its impact on the volatility of foreign exchange earnings in Iran's industrial sector. Accordingly, quarterly data from 2002-2 to 2018-3 were collected in the top three industrial sub-sectors of the country and the autoregression method with distributed intervals was used for estimation. The findings indicate the positive effects of inflation and global income on short-term and long-term foreign exchange earnings instability and the effect of concentration index of base metals sub-sector on industrial foreign exchange earnings instability was positive and in non-metallic mineral products and workshop textiles has been negative and significant. Therefore, moving towards diversification in the metals sub-sector and focusing on the non-metallic mineral and textile sub-sectors will reduce the volatility of industrial foreign exchange earnings. Based on the results, it is suggested that the government reduce the instability of industrial foreign exchange earnings by granting facilities, setting export and import customs tariffs in industrial sub-sectors, while directing production in terms of diversification or decentralization. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
54 - The effect of private and government investment on the growth of the health sector in Iran
Mehraneh Shamshirbandi mohamad dalman pour Farid AsgariThis study estimated the effect of private and government investment on the growth of the health sector in Iran with the ARDL approach, 1981-2019. The selected indicators were estimated in two selected indicators: health expenditure and health index (life expectancy). T MoreThis study estimated the effect of private and government investment on the growth of the health sector in Iran with the ARDL approach, 1981-2019. The selected indicators were estimated in two selected indicators: health expenditure and health index (life expectancy). The estimation results of the model show that the increase in economic growth, causes an increase health expenditures and the increase of private sector investment in the health sector, causes an increase health expenditures and the increase of private sector and government investment in the health sector, improve the Health index. In the long term, the rate of AIDS and the inflation rate have a negative effect on health expenditure and health index; and the literacy rate, the urbanization rate, the real exchange rate, and the real interest rate have a positive effect on health expenditure and health index. The results of this study, consist with other researches, showed that by focusing on investment, the growth of the health sector in Iran improves. The findings of this study can be used to implement a more efficient policy in the way and type of investment in the health sector. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
55 - Evaluating the Power of Capital Deepening and the Effect of Elasticity of Substitution of Production Factors on the Employment Capacity in Iran's Manufacturing Industries.
Hamid Shirazi Mohammad Sharif Karimi Ali FalahatiThe purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of capital deepening and elasticity of substitution of production factors on the employment capacity of Iran's factories during the annual period of 1989 - 2019 .In this regard, by using the autoregressive distrib MoreThe purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of capital deepening and elasticity of substitution of production factors on the employment capacity of Iran's factories during the annual period of 1989 - 2019 .In this regard, by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method and time series data, the relationship and convergence between the macro-micro variables considered in this research and the employment capacity of Iran's manufacturing sector are investigated.The results indicate a significant immediate inverse (negative) and direct (positive) delayed effect of the capital deepening factor in both periods, as well as a significant direct delayed effect of the substitution elasticity of production factors in the short-term period and a significant inverse effect of delaying changes in the substitution elasticity of production factors in the long-term period on the employment capacity of the manufacturing industry sector of Iran's economy during the mentioned years. Also, according to the error correction model (ECM), the short-term dynamic model of the employment capacity of the said sector has convergence and tendency towards the long-term equilibrium model.Keywords: capital deepening; elasticity of substitution of factors; manufacturing industry; capacity of creating employment; ARDL ;Iran.JEL Classification: C22 ، D22، E22، J23، L60 Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
56 - The Relationship between ICT, Exports and Non-Exports Sectors and Economic Growth in Iran: A Generalization of Feder Model
saber motaghed homayun ranjbar seed daei karimzadehInformation and Communication Technology (ICT) is a growing industry all over the world. It has a very essential impact on GDP and hence economic growth directly. Furthermore, indirectly, it increases productivity and efficiency of export and non-export sectors and impr MoreInformation and Communication Technology (ICT) is a growing industry all over the world. It has a very essential impact on GDP and hence economic growth directly. Furthermore, indirectly, it increases productivity and efficiency of export and non-export sectors and improves economic growth as well. This study provides a generalized version of Feder model to investigate the relationship between ICT, export, and non-export sectors and economic growth. An econometric model is estimated in Iran during 1978 - 2010 by using ARDL co-integration method. The results represent that ICT and export have a positive significant effect on economic growth in Iran. On the other hand, ICT has a positive significant external effect on export and non-export sectors. Export has also a positive external effect on non-export sector. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
57 - The Effect of Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and International Business on Greenhouse Gas Emission in Iran
taghi torabi Amin khajooeipour samaneh tarighi mohammadreza pakravanAbstract Nowadays the people all over the world are increasingly worried about the emission of greenhouse gas and the environmental changes resulted. Since Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the main source of pollution and emission of greenhouse gas, this paper is to study the r MoreAbstract Nowadays the people all over the world are increasingly worried about the emission of greenhouse gas and the environmental changes resulted. Since Carbon Dioxide (CO2) is the main source of pollution and emission of greenhouse gas, this paper is to study the relationship between the emission of this gas caused by energy consumption, economic growth and international trading in Iran during 1971-2011 based on environmental biology Kuznets Curve in practice. So, auto-distribution method with vast stops is used. The results represent that the use of energy, real gross national production per person and the rate of economy openness has a positive and significant effect on the emission of CO2. Furthermore, for the acceleration of short-term dividend pattern adjustment toward long-term balancing, error correction pattern is used. The coefficient estimated for ECM is -0.49 representing that imbalance of CO2 emission can be adjusted after two years by changing the level of energy consumption, national gross production and the rate of economy openness. By considering the increase of CO2 emission in Iran, it is necessary to make new environmental policies to decrease environmental destruction. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
58 - The Role of Knowledge-Based Economy in Controlling Inflation
atieh gorjizadeh hosein sharifi renaniIn a knowledge-based economy, developing the knowledge and skills will lead to the innovation which in turn increase the productivity and revenue and reduce the inflation and unemployment. Due to the importance of applying the knowledgeto improve economic conditions, th MoreIn a knowledge-based economy, developing the knowledge and skills will lead to the innovation which in turn increase the productivity and revenue and reduce the inflation and unemployment. Due to the importance of applying the knowledgeto improve economic conditions, this paper has attempted to illustrate the effect of knowledge-based economy on the inflation in Iran by using annualtime series data during 1978-2011 applying Auto Regressive Distributed Lagmodel(ARDL) to test and analyze the data. The Research results show a significant correlation between the inflation rate and the knowledge based economy elements including education and human resource development, economic and institutional regime, innovation, infrastructure and information systems. The research also emphasize that this correlation will be negative in long-term for all elements except education and human resource development that it is positive. That is, by a knowledge-based economy, the inflation will be decreased in long run. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
59 - Investigating the Effects of Governmental Expenditure Shock on Gross Domestic Product Growth in Iran: ARDL Approach
jafar haghighat nazila moharam joudiThe aim of this paper is investigating the effects of governmental expenditure shock on GDP in Iran’s economy. In order to achieve this aim, at first, the model of effective factors on governmental expenditure has been explained, and governmental expenditure MoreThe aim of this paper is investigating the effects of governmental expenditure shock on GDP in Iran’s economy. In order to achieve this aim, at first, the model of effective factors on governmental expenditure has been explained, and governmental expenditure shock is captured by the model residuals. Then the model of effective factors on GDP is estimated from 1971 to 2014. In estimating the models, autoregressive distributed Lag (ARDL) approach has been used. According to the results, the effect of governmental current expenditure on GDP is not significant. But lagged government expenditure shock has a positive and significant impact on GDP. Error correction term is negative and significant, and indicates that when a shock occurs, 12 percent of short term imbalance is adjusted each period, to reach the long term equilibrium. It is purposed to government not to increase own expenditure, since this can cause an inverse relationship between government expenditure and GDP and it reduces economic growth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
60 - macroeconomic variables, economic sanctions and the price index of the technical and engineering services industry in Iran's capital market; ARDL approach
Arash danialian mahbube delfanThe purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of macroeconomic variables, inflation rate, exchange rate, as well as the global commodity price index and economic sanctions on the price index of the technical and engineering services industry in Iran's capita MoreThe purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of macroeconomic variables, inflation rate, exchange rate, as well as the global commodity price index and economic sanctions on the price index of the technical and engineering services industry in Iran's capital market . This study, which is an application of the autocorrelation model with distributed lag (ARDL), has been carried out using monthly data during the period of 1387-1400. The results of the pattern estimation indicate that our dynamic pattern is moving towards the long-term pattern. Also, the results of the error correction model show that 91% of the deviation of the model from its long-term path is corrected by the model variables every year. According to the results, the global commodity price index and the sanctions index have negative effects, and the variables of the exchange rate and inflation rate have positive and significant effects on the price index of the technical engineering services industry. Also the global commodity price index has the highest elasticity compared to other research variables. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
61 - Crisis of Decision Making in North Korea Nuclear Crisis
Saeed EslameeAbstract The aim of the present article is to examine the strategies and decisions taken by the United States and North Korea and their outcome during North Korea nuclear crisis. In this direction the article has made use of John Bram’s Theory of Moves. From 1993 MoreAbstract The aim of the present article is to examine the strategies and decisions taken by the United States and North Korea and their outcome during North Korea nuclear crisis. In this direction the article has made use of John Bram’s Theory of Moves. From 1993 when the issue of North Korea nuclear program was considered as a crisis for world community, strategies and counter strategies were made by the United States and North Korea. These moves eventually led to production of nuclear weapon and nuclear tests by North Korea in the years of 2006 and 2009. Consequently the United States cut its economic aid to North Korea and imposed extensive economic sanctions against North Korea within the framework of the security council of the United Nations. From the viewpoint of the article each decision (move) taken by each side was for maximizing of interests and minimizing the threat. Of course these decisions had a close relation with the decision taken by the opposite party. Therefore, the strategies of the two countries were fluctuating within the framework of compromise or hardline position. The finding of the study shows that initially the aim of North Korea by producing nuclear weapon was not deterrence but, taking some concessions (security guarantees, fuel, and food) but taking into consideration what North Korea was considering as the United States obstructionism, led to hard decision of making nuclear weapon. Manuscript profile -
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62 - تحلیل اثر نابرابری درآمد بر کیفیت محیط زیست در ایران (با ارائه یک مدل کاربردی در برنامهریزی محیطی)
محمد خیری وحید دهباشی هادی اسماعیل پورمقدم -
Open Access Article
63 - عوامل موثر بر مصرف انرژی در بخش کشاورزی ایران با استفاده از روش ARDL-FAZZY
مریم ضیاء آبادی محمدرضا زارع مهرجردیبا توجه به نیازها و خواسته های نامحدود بشر و محدودیت منابع، انسان همواره در اندیشه ی استفاده ی موثر و بهینه از امکانات و منابعی که در اختیار داشته، بوده است. انرژی به عنوان یکی از عوامل اصلی تولید دارای جایگاه مهمی در فعالیت­های اقتصادی و به عنوان یکی از مهم­تری Moreبا توجه به نیازها و خواسته های نامحدود بشر و محدودیت منابع، انسان همواره در اندیشه ی استفاده ی موثر و بهینه از امکانات و منابعی که در اختیار داشته، بوده است. انرژی به عنوان یکی از عوامل اصلی تولید دارای جایگاه مهمی در فعالیت­های اقتصادی و به عنوان یکی از مهم­ترین نهاده­های مصرفی در بخش کشاورزی، از اهمیت خاصی برخوردار است. طی چهار دهه اخیر، مصرف انرژی در بخش کشاورزی ایران با نرخی فراتر از رشد تولید این بخش افزایش یافته است که یکی از مهم­ترین دلایل آن، پائین بودن قیمت انرژی و یارانه­ای بودن آن در بخش کشاورزی ایران است. در این مطالعه جهت بررسی عوامل موثر بر مصرف انرژی در بخش کشاورزی ایران از روش ARDL-FAZZY و داده­های سری زمانی 1353-1394 استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان­دهنده آن است که متغیر سهم بخش کشاورزی تاثیر مثبت و معناداری بر مصرف انرژی در دوره مورد مطالعه داشته است. متغیر نسبت سرمایه به نیروی کار (سرمایه سرانه) تاثیر مثبت بر مصرف انرژی داشته است. شدت مصرف انرژی در بخش کشاورزی از روند منظمی پیروی نکرده و اثر مثبت بر مصرف انرژی در این بخش داشته است. متغیر قیمت انرژی (سوخت­های فسیلی و برق) تاثیر منفی (با سطح معناداری پائین) بر مصرف انرژی دارد. بنابراین پیشنهاد می­شود که با توجه به اهمیت انرژی و مسئله آلودگی، مصرف انرژی و عوامل موثر برآن بیش از پیش مورد توجه قرار گیرد. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
64 - The Analysis of the Effects of Domestic and Foreign Investment in R&D on Agricultural TFP in Iran
Ali BagherzadehNowadays, agricultural R&D provides new and developed technologies to create modern agricultural producing methods. During recent years, improving agricultural productivity is affected by not only domestic R&D investments but also foreign countries R&D inves MoreNowadays, agricultural R&D provides new and developed technologies to create modern agricultural producing methods. During recent years, improving agricultural productivity is affected by not only domestic R&D investments but also foreign countries R&D investments. Nowadays, according to new growth models, R&D is the base of productivity. Recent economic theories consider agricultural research and it's spill overs as important factors for technological change and economic growth. This paper investigates the amount of agricultural total factor productivity in Iran and analyzes the relationship between TFP, domestic agricultural research, and foreign agricultural R&D during 1979–2008. In this study Iran's partners are 20 Asian, European and South American countries. The Solow residual index approach is applied for the measurement of total factor productivity in agricultural sector of Iran. ARDL model involving different lag length specifications were estimated taking TFP as a dependent variable. The results indicate that agricultural researches (both domestic and foreign R&D) have positive and significant impact on agricultural TFP. But the impact of foreign R&D on agricultural productivity is stronger than the effect of domestic R&D. According to gained results considerable portion of national product should be allocated to R&D costs and research budget of agricultural sector should be increased to standard level. Also government should pay attention to its partner countries because agricultural R&D spillover of developed countries is more than developing countries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
65 - اعتبارات بانکی و رشد سرمایهگذاری در بخش کشاورزی ایران
Mehdi Shabanzadeh Reza Esfanjari Kenari Parinaz Jansouz Mohammad Kavoosi Kalashamiدر پژوهش حاضر ارتباط میان اعتبارات بانکی و رشد سرمایه‏گذاری در بخش کشاورزی ایران طی دوره زمانی 2011-1982 با استفاده از الگوی خود توزیع برداری (ARDL) مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. جهت دستیابی به این هدف، رشد سرمایه‏گذاری در بخش کشاورزی ایران تابعی از درآمدهای Moreدر پژوهش حاضر ارتباط میان اعتبارات بانکی و رشد سرمایه‏گذاری در بخش کشاورزی ایران طی دوره زمانی 2011-1982 با استفاده از الگوی خود توزیع برداری (ARDL) مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. جهت دستیابی به این هدف، رشد سرمایه‏گذاری در بخش کشاورزی ایران تابعی از درآمدهای نفتی، اعتبارات بانکی، ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی و موجودی سرمایه در این بخش در نظر گرفته شده است. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش حاضر نشان می‏دهد که میان متغیرهای لحاظ شده در الگوی سرمایه‏گذاری بخش کشاورزی، ارتباط بلندمدت وجود دارد. از میان متغیرهای فوق اعتبارات بانکی بیشترین اثر را بر رشد سرمایه‏گذاری در بخش کشاورزی ایران دارد به طوری که افزایش دسترسی به اعتبارات نقش اساسی را در تشویق سرمایه‏‏گذاری در بخش کشاورزی ایران ایفا می‏نماید. هم­چنین کشش اعتبارات بانکی، درآمد نفتی، موجودی سرمایه و ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی نسبت به سرمایه‏گذاری در مطالعه حاضر به ترتیب 103/0، 015/0، 049/0 و 058/0- محاسبه شده است. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
66 - Study of the Effects of Globalization on Iranian Caviar Export
Abolghasem Barghandan Kamran Barghandan Mohammadreza Naeemi Abdolghafoor MohammadzadehGlobalization is integration of national economies in global economy and infers on increasing the flow of goods and services. In this study the consequences of globalization were studied through the analysis of Level of International Trade index (LIT) in the caviar expo MoreGlobalization is integration of national economies in global economy and infers on increasing the flow of goods and services. In this study the consequences of globalization were studied through the analysis of Level of International Trade index (LIT) in the caviar export equation. The required data were gathered from Statistical Yearbook of Foreign Trade, Statistical Yearbook of fisheries, Statistical Yearbook of the International Monetary Fund, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and different issues of Central Bank of Iran over 1974-2007. The results showed that domestic production of caviar have significant and positive effects on its export. In addition, sign of level of international trade variable in the estimated model is positive and indicates trade restrictions remove lead to increase in caviar export. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
67 - Investigating Effect of Development of Agricutural,Industrial, Service and Oil Revenue to ICOR of Agricultural Sector
Zakiyeh Sadeghi Mojtaba Nikzad Mojtaba Bagheri TodshekiIn this study, considering the importance of incremental capital output ratio (ICOR) in agriculture Investment capital and self-sufficiency in this sector in order to grow and being influenced by the past and previous relationships strong agricultural sector productivit MoreIn this study, considering the importance of incremental capital output ratio (ICOR) in agriculture Investment capital and self-sufficiency in this sector in order to grow and being influenced by the past and previous relationships strong agricultural sector productivity growth in other sectors of the economy, especially the effect of oil revenues, was trying to, long-term relationships as well as their adjustment process described by the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag model (ARDL) to investigate.The results also confirm the long-run relationship between the variables of the model show that oil revenues in appropriate path to growth agricultural productivity have beentoo much attention to the industry and imports of agricultural products decreased investment in agricultural productivity.However,the service sector growth by improving marketing activities and financing farmers to improve venture capital productivity in the agricultural sector operates. In the long run, adjusting the intersection, the model indicates improved productivity in the agricultural sector is of capital. Shown the necessary support to the agricultural sector in the short term. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
68 - Investigating the Asymmetric relation between the Global Crude Oil Market and Iran's Capital Market during the Covid-19 Pandemic
Abbas MemarzadehThe Covid-19 pandemic has negatively affected the world economy, especially the crude oil industry, due to the decrease in crude oil demand, quarantine, and uncertainty related to the global economic recession, and at the same time, the price war between Saudi Arabia an MoreThe Covid-19 pandemic has negatively affected the world economy, especially the crude oil industry, due to the decrease in crude oil demand, quarantine, and uncertainty related to the global economic recession, and at the same time, the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russian. In this study, using weekly data from March 2020 to September 2021, which coincides with the outbreak of the Covid-19 disease in the world, the asymmetric effects of crude oil price changes on Iran's capital market will be investigated. To check the assumptions of this research and verify the long-term nonlinear relationships, the boundary test approach is used and the long-term and short-term asymmetric coefficients are estimated simultaneously with the NARDL_ECM model. Also, the rate of government treasury bonds, the number of confirmed cases and the value of retail transactions have been used as control variables. The results show that the positive oil price changes have a stronger significant positive effect on the Iranian capital market than the negative changes. This point shows that when the global crude oil is increasing, buying shares can be profitable for market participants. In addition, due to the weak and insignificant correlation of the capital market with the negative oil price changes, when the price is falling due to unforeseen events such as the epidemic of Covid-19, market participants should avoid excitement and negative emotions in selling shares. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
69 - Evaluating the effect of deposit interest tax on the bank deposits
Younes Teymouri Faramarz Tahmasebi Nader MehreganExtended Abstract This study analyzes and evaluates the effects of deposit interest tax on the quantity of bank deposits. Examining the experience of the past few decades of the country's economy shows that deposit interest tax never been applied and no historical an MoreExtended Abstract This study analyzes and evaluates the effects of deposit interest tax on the quantity of bank deposits. Examining the experience of the past few decades of the country's economy shows that deposit interest tax never been applied and no historical and informational records have been created for it. Therefore, the evaluation of a policy that has not been carried out so far is inherently complicated and has limitations. In this research, in order to reduce the consequences of such restrictions, bank deposit interest rate changes have been considered as an alternative to deposit interest tax. The effect of bank interest rate changes on the quantity of deposits is estimated in the form of an econometric model and with the ARDL method, in which the effect of two variables, the informal market exchange rate and the gross domestic product, is also analyzed. The estimation results show that the real GDP has not been able to statistically affect the amount of deposits. But on the other hand, the exchange rate of the informal market is one of the things that significantly affects the amount of deposits. Based on the designed model, in addition to the estimated coefficient, the effect of the deposit interest tax on the amount of deposits, depends on the nominal rate of deposit interest in the banking system and the inflation rate in the economy.. Purpose Tax exemption of bank deposit interest is one of the topics discussed in the Iran's tax system in recent decades. The existence of this exemption in the Iran's economic history is probably aimed for stabilizing economic fluctuations and supporting investors by attracting resources to the banking system. But the results of the analysis of the effect of this exemption show that its costs are more than the benefits. The implications of the tax on deposit interest, which is part of the benchmark tax system (BTS), and the prevailing difficult economic conditions in recent years due to external factors such as international sanctions, are two things that make it necessary to implementation of this tax for Iran's economy. Moreover, a comparative study in this field also shows that deposit interest is taxed in most countries, although at different rates. However, each of them have different approaches in applying this type of tax according to the state of technical and executive infrastructures and the quality of policy making. One of the difficulties of examining the issue is that in the economic history of the country, tax on bank deposit interest has never been applied and no historical and information records have been created for it. Therefore, the policy that has not been implemented until now, its evaluation is inherently complicated and has limitations. In this report, to reduce the consequences of such limitations, bank deposit interest rate changes are considered as an alternative to deposit interest tax. For this reason, such a choice has been made that the application of tax on bank deposit interest implicitly means the change of the said interest rate. However, changes in bank deposit interest rates are different in nature from changes in tax rates on deposit interest. Due to the choice made in the method of achieve to goals of this study, it is necessary to study and analyze the bank interest rate and the effects of its change on the amount of deposits theoretically and empirically. Then, in the next step of the report, the method of evaluating the effects of bank interest rate changes and the econometric model used for this purpose will be examined. Finally, the findings of this evaluation and policy recommendations based on those findings are presented in the final part of the report. Of course, it is an attempt to give recommendations to the limitations that exist in applying findings of the research, attention has been paid and considering these limitations, recommendations and policy measures have been proposed. Methodology The analysis of this study is derived from the analytical framework of brokers' behavior in financial markets, which is presented under basic assumptions such as pursuing maximum profit and utility by brokers. In Iran's economy, due to the prevailing price fluctuations and instability in the last few decades, it is more likely to accept the strong assumptions that form the hard core of the aforementioned analytical framework. But what is important here is whether the transfer of resources and assets from the banking system to other markets was significant enough to affect the performance of other markets. Therefore, the test of the effects of changing the deposit interest rate in this study is the answer to the mentioned question. The variables whose effect is tested on the volume of non-visual deposits (thousand billion Rials) are; Bank deposit interest rate (percentage), informal market exchange rate (Rials), GDP (billion Rials), whose data are used for the period 1361-1400. The method used for the above effectiveness test is the Autoregressive with distributed lags model (ARDL), which is performed using Eviews software. Finding The purpose of studying the relationship between the bank interest rate and the volume of non-visual deposits was evaluating the effect of the deposit interest tax on the volume of deposits. The comparison of the results of all three states that were displayed in the recent tables, induces this view to the reader that the third state; Considering the lowest tax rate that is levied, the small deposit withdrawal that happens from the banking system, and the relatively favorable revenue collection capacity that can be received, it is a suitable option for levying the bank deposit interest tax. Of course, the tax rate of 3% on bank deposit interest can be the beginning of the gradual process of levying tax on deposit interest. The gradual process of implementing this policy will be a useful issue due to the sensitivity of the tax on deposit interest. Conclusion Therefore, by fixing the mentioned rates, the effect of deposit interest tax has been analyzed in three cases of 5%, 10% and 3% tax rates. Based on the findings of the model, taking into account the bank interest rate of 20% and the inflation rate of 40% for the economy, applying a tax rate of 3% (10%) will reduce 23 billion Tomans (77 billion Tomans) of deposits from the banking system in one year Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
70 - The hidden variable and volatility of Iran's money demand function
farshad parvizian alireza erfaniThe Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Is Dependence with Shape, Stipulated and Stability the Functions of Money Demand and Liquidity. The Formation of Expected Inflation, can Be a Function of Knowledge, Information and Even Personal Understanding Based on Mental Patterns MoreThe Effectiveness of Monetary Policy Is Dependence with Shape, Stipulated and Stability the Functions of Money Demand and Liquidity. The Formation of Expected Inflation, can Be a Function of Knowledge, Information and Even Personal Understanding Based on Mental Patterns of Individuals from the Published Data Issue. The Economic Actors, Based on Expectations of Prices in the Future, Based on Knowledge and Information from the Economy, Deciding they Needed Information from Various Sources Directly or from the Media .In This Research, with the Introduction of the New Variable , the Presence of the Chairman of the Central Bank in the Media, the Demand Functions for the Short and Long Term for the Volume of Money M1, and Liquidity M2, Using Monthly Data of IRAN and Its Approach and Explain, Distributive ARDL Estimates we have. The Results Showed that the Entry Variable, the Presence of the Head of the Central Bank in the money demand Function, Causing Instability, this function will Be. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
71 - The relationship between the shadow economy and income inequality in Iran, a self-explanatory vector approach with wide intervals
Fariba Rashnoo Gholam Ali HajiOne of the most important goals of governments in any economy is to control the income inequality situation, so that in every country, governments are trying to improve the conditions of income distribution according to the factors they have. One of the very important f MoreOne of the most important goals of governments in any economy is to control the income inequality situation, so that in every country, governments are trying to improve the conditions of income distribution according to the factors they have. One of the very important factors that affect income distribution is the shadow economy. As a factor that affects macroeconomic variables, the shadow economy also affects income distribution.Therefore, in this article, the impact of the size of the shadow economy on income inequality in the short and long term periods has been investigated using the panel data econometric method and in the period from 1366 to 1400 in Iran. The results show that the shadow economy has a positive effect (improvement of income distribution) on income distribution in the short term, but this effect is negative in the long term, in other words, the shadow economy has a negative effect on income distribution in the long term. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
72 - Investigating the Relationship Between Interest Rates and Liquidity in Tejarat Bank
Ali Akbar Baghestani Reza RahimiInterest rates are one of the most effective channels of money transfer. Interest ratescan potentially affect the economy as a whole by determining the level of manyeconomic variables such as investment, capital flows, credit demand, bankprofitability, liquidity and exc MoreInterest rates are one of the most effective channels of money transfer. Interest ratescan potentially affect the economy as a whole by determining the level of manyeconomic variables such as investment, capital flows, credit demand, bankprofitability, liquidity and exchange rates. Since the profit curve can absorb andpredict the future progress of the economy, it is expected that by creating theconditions for future expectations, it will affect the behavior and profit of the bankin creating more liquidity. Therefore, in this study, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) model was used to investigate the effect of interest rates on liquidity. Theresults showed that the variables of interest rates and capital have a positive andsignificant effect on liquidity, while inflation has a negative effect. Therefore, achange in bank interest rates will lack the necessary efficiency to stimulate the realsector of the economy. Determining bank interest rates without considering changesin inflation rates cannot explain why there is no savings in banks. In order forgovernments to be able to provide the central bank with the tools it needs tostimulate the real sector of the economy, it is essential that efforts be made to reduceeconomic risk in addition to empowering the central bank to rationalize bank interestrates. In this case, the central bank will be able to use bank interest rates as anefficient tool to manage liquidity and convert it into investment and productionflows. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
73 - The Impact of Capital Market Development and Economic Growth on Poverty
BAHMAN khanalizadehEconomic growth and poverty reduction have always been the most important political and economic goals of countries. Because poverty has always been one of the unfavorable economic and social phenomena of different societies throughout human history and is now recognize MoreEconomic growth and poverty reduction have always been the most important political and economic goals of countries. Because poverty has always been one of the unfavorable economic and social phenomena of different societies throughout human history and is now recognized as one of the major problems of world societies. But one of the most important ways to fight poverty is to increase GDP, which can reduce poverty and income inequality in society, but achieving economic growth requires the use of various factors such as capital, manpower, energy and .... Therefore, paying more attention to financial markets, including the stock market and securities, which can be one of the important tools for financing institutions and enterprises, will certainly be able to increase GDP and ultimately lead to poverty reduction. Therefore, in this study, by performing ARDL test, long-term and short-term relationships between stock market development variables (value of exchanges traded, volume of stocks traded on the stock exchange and number of listed companies) and real GDP with Gini coefficient (amount Poverty) in the period 1365-1398 and using annual data in Iran to be examined. Therefore, the results indicate that in the short run and in the long run, the effect of all the variables used on the poverty rate in Iran is negative. Also, the variable of the value of transactions in the stock exchange has had the most negative impact among the variables of financial market development on the poverty rate in Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
74 - The effect of governance quality on stock market value
BAHMAN khanalizadeh Farid AsgariFinancial markets, including the stock market, with all the positive characteristics they have on the economic growth and development of countries, are influenced by micro and macro factors that increase the inherent risk of this market and affect the assets of investor MoreFinancial markets, including the stock market, with all the positive characteristics they have on the economic growth and development of countries, are influenced by micro and macro factors that increase the inherent risk of this market and affect the assets of investors. These factors in the theoretical literature include a wide range of variables, recently the quality of governance has been added to the sum of these variables, so that its effects are far more destructive than other factors. For this reason, increasing the governance quality of governments as economic trustees will be able to strengthen the financial markets, including the stock market and securities market, which is one of the important means of financing economic institutions and enterprises. Therefore, in this research, by using the ARDL test, long-term and short-term relationships between the variables of current stock market value (SMV) and governance quality (voice and accountability (VOA), political stability without violence (PON), government effectiveness (GOE), supervisory quality ( REQ), Rule of Law (RUF) and Corruption Control (COC)) in the period of 1374-1399 and using annual data were investigated in Iran. The results indicate that in the short and long term, the impact of governance quality on the value of the Iranian stock market is positive, so that among the governance quality indicators, the most impact is related to the regulatory quality variable (REQ) and the least impact is related to the rule of law variable (RUF). Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
75 - Estimating the Function of Tourism Demand in Iran
Soheila Khoshnevis Yazdi Maryam GomamiIran has a great potential in the fields of environmental, historical, and cultural heritage. Relying on these capabilities can be expanded with its own tourism industry. Tourism development for developing countries with problems such as high unemployment rates, foreign MoreIran has a great potential in the fields of environmental, historical, and cultural heritage. Relying on these capabilities can be expanded with its own tourism industry. Tourism development for developing countries with problems such as high unemployment rates, foreign exchange and economic monoculture is encountering resource constraints. The heavy reliance on revenues from crude oil exports is of great importance in the economy of our country. Therefore, reliable forecasting and analysis of effective planning in industries related to tourism marketing is an absolute necessity. The main objective of this study is to estimate the demand of foreigners to tourism in Iran and to measure the impact of global GDP, the official exchange rate, consumer price index and oil prices on the demand for tourism in Iran. In this study, the method of ARDL model with the help of Tmymbafth Dykyfvlr unit root test and cumulative test Johansson was applied. Based on the evidence available, all the variables discussed in this study are meaningful and consistent with the theory. The review concluded that the price elasticity of demand in the consumer price index variables in long-term oil prices are stretching and official exchange rates and global GDP variables are inelastic. Cholera review found that the income elasticity of tourism products is essential. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
76 - Agriculture productivity effects on the Iran economic Growth
F. DABIRI S. KHoshnevis Yazdi F. ZandiToday,the most important goal of economic countries is achieving to economic Growth through productivity improving productivity improving can be achieved by optimum utilization of the production factors and it plays an important role in continuous economic growth and su MoreToday,the most important goal of economic countries is achieving to economic Growth through productivity improving productivity improving can be achieved by optimum utilization of the production factors and it plays an important role in continuous economic growth and sustainable development. Productivity of factors of production in agriculture sector is very important.Because in Iran,agriculture is the largest production sector after oil and services that has allocated around 20 present of Gross national product and main share of non oil export to it.Moreover,relation between agriculture former and hinder with other sectors will help output growth and employment,by increasing population and limiting resources,require optimum utilization of resources and increasing production factors productivity.In this study,data have been used as annually time series of data for the period of persian data 1350 till persian data1387.And variable of agriculture productivity is computed by using Kendrick index and then influence of agriculture productivity to economic Growth is estimated by model of ARDL and ECM that the test results indicate the signs of estimated coefficients for all variables match with visionary asters and the variable of capital,agriculture productivity,labor have positive and meaningful influence in economic Growth.And Granger causality test showed that there is a overhand relationship from agriculture productivity to economic growth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
77 - The Impact of Financial Sector Activities on Direct Tax Revenue
Niloofar Nateghian Fatemeh ZandiDue to its allocative and distributive effects, tax has always been considered as one of themost important governmental policies. Basically, tax is the most efficient and economicalway of covering governmental costs. In fact, tax is the most important means of change in MoreDue to its allocative and distributive effects, tax has always been considered as one of themost important governmental policies. Basically, tax is the most efficient and economicalway of covering governmental costs. In fact, tax is the most important means of change innational revenue. Because of its ability to control, this revenue source is preferred to otherdomestic economical sources. In addition, the role and importance of the financial systemin the process of economic development of countries, the effectiveness and efficiency of thefinancial system can be used to seek the distinction between developed and underdevelopedeconomies. Therefore, understanding the impact of the financial sector on tax revenue is ofspecific importance. By financial sector, the present researcher means the money market, andthe capital market which are the most important parts of the financial sector of Iran economy.Financial sector will be analyzed by three operational indexes related to banking system andone operational index related to activities of capital market. As mentioned above, this paperexamines the relationship between banking and non-banking activities in financial sector ofIran and direct tax revenue over the period 1379: Q1 to 1393: Q3. The model has been estimatedby Autoregressive Distributed Lag pattern (ARDL). The result indicated that direct tax revenuetoward facilities granted by commercial bank had been more elastic compared to other researchvariables in short run and long run. The coefficient of error correction shows that in each period36 percent of the imbalances of the direct taxes has been adjusted and almost reached near toits long-term trend Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
78 - The Impact of Tourism Development on Iran's Economy
Bahram Shakouri Soheila Khoshnevis Yazdi Niloofar NateghianOver the past several decades, the relationship between tourism spending and economic growth for both developing and developed countries has been extensively researched.1 Knowledge of the causal relationship between tourism spending and economic growth is of particular MoreOver the past several decades, the relationship between tourism spending and economic growth for both developing and developed countries has been extensively researched.1 Knowledge of the causal relationship between tourism spending and economic growth is of particular importance to policy makers, as tourism policies are becoming major concerns for these countries.. In many instances they are important in offsetting current account deficits and negative balance of payments. On the other hand, since international tourism contributes to every sector of the economy, budget deficits also benefit from these activities via tax revenues. International tourism brings foreign exchange that can be used to import intermediate and capital goods to produce goods and services, which in turn leads to economic growth. The significance of this sector can be manifested from the fact that it raises revenues, generates employment.This study investigated the relationship between tourism arrivals and economic growth in Iran for1980 to 2012, using relationship between international tourism arrivals, real gross domestic product, real effective exchange rats and political instability, using ARDL and Granger tests. The results show there are short -run and long -rung between tourism expenditure, real gross domestic product, real effective exchange rates and political instability in Iran are cointegrated during the sample period. The results Granger causality test suggest that there is a bidirectional causality between real effective exchange rate and real output and in the short-run and long-run. However, between the international tourism arrivals, real output and real effective exchange rates are bidirectional causality in short-run and long- run.These findings show that tourism is in part an endogenous growth process, and verified the presence of the tourism led growth in the case of Iran. Moreover, they indicate that tourism has mattered in the economic growth process. In addition, our results showed that the hypothesis of tourism exports driven by economic growth is better suited for both studied economies.The prospective tourists will have more confidence to visit Iran. It is therefore imperative that government institutions, tourism planners and investors recognize the implications of their actions in the interest of long-term economic viability of the tourism sector. A successful strategy for tourism development should not be measured only in terms of increasing tourist numbers or receipts. Tourism should also be evaluated in terms of its role in the overall development objectives of host countries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
79 - The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Changes on Non-oil Exports of Iran
Soheila khoshnevis yazdi ramin rajabzadehSetting Exchange rate in a good manner, paying attention to its changes and the factors affecting it in any circumstances, can be a topic of discussion. On the other hand, an increase in non-oil exports has been the main economic policy of the Iranian government in rece MoreSetting Exchange rate in a good manner, paying attention to its changes and the factors affecting it in any circumstances, can be a topic of discussion. On the other hand, an increase in non-oil exports has been the main economic policy of the Iranian government in recent decades. To get rid of single-product economy, the development of non-oil exports for the Iranian government is a necessity. Iran's share of global exports has not been dramatic over the past years, and this makes the development of non-oil exports necessary in order to reduce the country's economic dependence on oil revenues. In the present study, by stipulating appropriate model, from econometric method, ARDL model was used to examine the short-term and long-term effects of real exchange rate changes on Iran's non-oil exports during the period 1983-2013. Non-oil exports in this study have been measured using the variables of the real exchange rate, Iran's trading partners GDP, GDP and credit to the private sector. Estimation results suggest that symptoms of estimated coefficients are consistent with the theoretical basis of all variables, and results show that changes in the real exchange rate at level of 5% error in the short and long term have a positive effect on non-oil exports. Effect of Iran's trading partners GDP, GDP and credit to the private sector on non-oil exchange has been positive. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
80 - بررسی آثار اندازه دولت بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران
اکبر کمیجانی هادی حق شناس -
Open Access Article
81 - The Effect of tourism industry on economic growth : the case of Iran
Hosein Sharifi-Renani Maryam Safaei-Shakib Mostafa EmadzadehEconomic growth has been one of the quantitative indexes to measure the rate of economic development, in different countries, and factors affecting on it, are very important. This index is affected from several factors, meanwhile, tourism capacities such as, creating jo MoreEconomic growth has been one of the quantitative indexes to measure the rate of economic development, in different countries, and factors affecting on it, are very important. This index is affected from several factors, meanwhile, tourism capacities such as, creating job opportunities, infrastructural development, entry of foreign tourists, increasing demand for domestic commodities, increasing exports and increasing the possibility of foreign investment, Of the major reasons that should be a special effort in line with economic growth. Recognizing the superior position of tourism industry, in different patterns of economic development, can be strengthened economic growth. The main goal of this paper reviews the effects of capital industry and entry of foreign tourists on economic growth of Iran in a time period between 2991 – 3119 by Autoregressive Distribution Lags approach (ARDL). Estimation results show that, the capital that used in the tourism sector, has a positive and significant effects on economic growth in Iran. Also entry of foreign tourists, shows positive and significant effects on it. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
82 - Investigation of effective factors on non-oil exports with emphasis on non-price variables
Farhad Dejpasand Meysam Amiry1 Benyamin SavehOne of the ways for encouraging economic development in oil exporting countries like Iran (which is known as an oil-dependent economy) is moving toward diversification of export revenues rapidly by increasing non-oil exports. This goal is not accessible without a compre MoreOne of the ways for encouraging economic development in oil exporting countries like Iran (which is known as an oil-dependent economy) is moving toward diversification of export revenues rapidly by increasing non-oil exports. This goal is not accessible without a comprehensive survey and examination of factors that affects non-oil exports condition. Although, in many developed countries, export and import analysis is performed in framework of relevant price variables (Also in our country most of the surveys have not gone beyond this framework).But it seems that institutional, scientific, technological and management factors have much greater effect on export variables in Iran in comparison to other countries. Hence, in this article we have tried to go beyond previous studies by adding real and non-price factors to quantitative model of non-oil export in order to estimate their impacts.In order to do this, we have considered non-oil exports to be a function of real exchange rate, total factor productivity, gross national product and the degree of openness of the economy. In addition, we have used ARDL for estimating the model and investigating the effects of each of these factors on non-oil export during 1975-2007. Finding of this paper shows that non-oil export is significantly and effectively, dependant on non-price variables. The results of our estimation show that productivity, degree of economic openness and GDP have positive effects on non-oil export. Albeit according to basic problems in production and export and according to our estimations, we claim that exchange rate does not have a significant impact on non-oil export. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
83 - تأثیر انحراف نرخ ارز واقعی بر صادرات صنعت فولاد در ایران
هدی مشهدی محمدی عباس شاکری محمود محمودزاده -
Open Access Article
84 - Evaluating the Impact of Oil Price Volatilities and Output Gap on Trade Balance in Iranian Economy
mehdi yazdani tahereh noorafroz More Abstract The macroeconomic variables have been affected by the volatilities and changes in oil price in the world countries and they have faced with serious challenges and lead to consider various tactics to avoid the negative effects of these shocks. However the instability of the oil market will make long-run planning impossible for policy making which is based on oil revenues in the oil exporting countries. Hence the purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of volatility of oil price on the trade balance in Iranian economy during 1357-1390 with ARDL method. The results of this study indicate that the coefficients of oil prices and the output gap are significant in the 95% level and their relationships are negative with the trade balance. Moreover, the coefficient of exchange rate on the trade balance is positive and is statistically significant in 99% level. According the estimated relationship between oil price and the trade balance, policymakers can adopt suitable strategies in the face of volatiles in oil price and utilize it in economic development, codify social programs, set the annual budgets of the country and design appropriate policies to maintain economic stability. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
85 - بررسی اثرات نامتقارن نرخ ارز بر تابع تقاضای پول ایران با وجود هزینه مذهبی خانوار: رویکرد NARDL
محمود عیدی کامبیز هژبر کیانی یداله رجایی اشکان رحیم زاده -
Open Access Article
86 - برآورد تابع تقاضای بیمه های مسئولیت در ایران
محمدرضا میرزایی نژاد محسن فتحی -
Open Access Article
87 - تأثیر مالیات بر شرکت ها بر سرمایه گذاری بخش خصوصی با استفاده از رهیافت کرانه ها
تانیا خسروی جمشید پژویان -
Open Access Article
88 - نگرشی بر ارتباط میان بار مالیاتی و اثرگذاری آن بر اقتصاد پنهان در ایران ) رهیافتی از الگوی (ARDL
سید رستم اسداله زاده بالی مرجان دامن کشیده منیژه هادی نژاد غلامرضا گرائی نژاد هوشنگ مومنی وصالیان -
Open Access Article
89 - The Influence of Military Spending on External Debt in IRAN
صاحبه محمدیان منصور ابوالقاسم گل خندان Abstract The main objective of this study is to investigate the co-integration and causality between military spending and external debt during the period of 1988-2012. To the accurate deliberation of this main used the Zivot - Andrews (1992) unit root test wit More Abstract The main objective of this study is to investigate the co-integration and causality between military spending and external debt during the period of 1988-2012. To the accurate deliberation of this main used the Zivot - Andrews (1992) unit root test with structural breaks based on the three approaches, autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL), Johansson (1990) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). Demonstrate co-integration in upon three approaches have been done by using Pesaran's et al bonds (2001), trace and maximum eigenvalue and Saikkonen and Lutkepohl (2000) co-integration tests. The estimated long-term and short-term coefficients and reviews of direction causality have done based on error correction model (ECM). The results indicate a low positive effect of military expenditure on external debt in short-term and long-term. In addition, there is one-way causality from military spending to external debt in short-term and long-term. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
90 - The introduction of the international exchange market (FOREX) and identify factors that predict the real exchange rate in Iran
مرجان Daman keshideh نازی Mohamadzadeh aslFOREX is one of the most important and largest financial markets in the world. This market primarily used to reduce the risk of exchange rate changes and the second place as a way to profit the difference in rates. This article has two main approaches: First to introduc MoreFOREX is one of the most important and largest financial markets in the world. This market primarily used to reduce the risk of exchange rate changes and the second place as a way to profit the difference in rates. This article has two main approaches: First to introduce and review how activity in the FOREX market, the second, most important preconditions for the presence in this market forecast exchange rate changes, the factors affecting the real exchange rate in using the ARDL method is studied. The survey results show that the variables government spending, oil revenues, capital flows and the degree of openness of the economy, including the main factors influencing the real exchange rate in Iran. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
91 - Determining the Desired Level of Monetary Base and the Money Multiplierand the Impact of each on Inflation
علی اباذری عسکری حمیدرضا حری علیرضا شکیباییIn recent decades, numerous studies have been conducted about inflation in developed and developing countries. Although there is a general understanding of the concept of inflation, there is no consensus among economists about its causes. This study, using data from the MoreIn recent decades, numerous studies have been conducted about inflation in developed and developing countries. Although there is a general understanding of the concept of inflation, there is no consensus among economists about its causes. This study, using data from the years 1973-2017 is to investigate the role of liquidity growth on inflation in Iran. Liquidity will be discussed from two channels; the monetary base and the money multiplier, which are the components of the society’s money volume and the impact of each of these two factors on inflation is measured, and the favorable and optimal rate will be obtained for the economy of the country. Research methodology and estimation is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The results show that the monetary base variable has had a positive significant effect on the variable inflation. The money multiplier has had a positive and significant impact on inflation regarding its importance as one of the effective variables in the changes in money volume. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
92 - Investigating the Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Liquidity on Value Added of Services in Iran’s Economy
مهناز حاله کامبیز هژبرکیانی فرید عسگری محمد صادق علی پورAwareness of the structure and potential of different sectors in the Iranian economy is one of the important and effective factors for success in development planning. Service section is one of the most important section in a country’s economy that it operates as MoreAwareness of the structure and potential of different sectors in the Iranian economy is one of the important and effective factors for success in development planning. Service section is one of the most important section in a country’s economy that it operates as a development (growth) motor of other sections and its share is constantly increasing in the gross domestic product and development. Hence the effective factors on its added value has always been of interest to economists and politicians. On the other hand, investigating the direction and extent of the impact of liquidity changes on macroeconomic variables is always important to formulate and adopt appropriate macroeconomic policies. In this study, considering the share of service section in the gross domestic product (GDP) and employment in the Iran’s economy as well as liquidity volume mutations in the recent decade, we examine and analyze the direction and extent of the impact of value added of the service section from changes in the volume of liquidity by using time-series data on an annual basis during the period 1360 to 1395 dynamically. In this regard, the self-return model with Non-Linear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) and the threshold test approach has been used. The research outcomes confirm the existence of a long-term Cointegration between the variables of the model. Furthermore, the results show that liquidity volume changes’ shocks have a greater impact on the value added of the service sector in the long term. According to other research results, the effect of bank credit interest rate on value added of services sector is positive and significant and the attraction of value added of service sector is more than short-term and long-term interest rate of bank credits compared to changes in liquidity volume. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
93 - اثر ابزارهای پرداخت الکترونیکی بر تقاضای پول در کشورهای در حال توسعه (مطالعه موردی ایران)
منصوره زوارئیان کچو مثقالی کامبیز هژبر کیانی عباس معمار نژاد -
Open Access Article
94 - Investigating the relationship between economic freedom and social welfare in Iran, based on Amartya Sen of social welfare
محمد جواد مهدی زاده راینی حمید محمدی ماشالله سالارپور سامان ضیاییAbstract One of the macroeconomic goals of countries is to create the necessary conditions to promote social welfare. One of the factors affecting the welfare of economic freedom. In this way, the freedom of the economy through the use of a set of solutions seeks to ac MoreAbstract One of the macroeconomic goals of countries is to create the necessary conditions to promote social welfare. One of the factors affecting the welfare of economic freedom. In this way, the freedom of the economy through the use of a set of solutions seeks to achieve some goals that increase the level of welfare through these goals. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between economic freedom and social welfare in Iran using the ARDL model. This study was based on seasonal data during 2002-2019. The results showed that by increasing economic freedom by one percent, the social welfare index increased by 0.105 percent. and increasing per capita income increases the social welfare index by 0.142 percent. The effect of an increase in the unemployment rate by one percent reduces the social welfare index by -0.122 percent. The effect of a 1% increase in college education was followed by an increase in the social welfare index of 0.283. Also, as the population over 65 years of age, the social welfare index declines by -0.673 percent. The effect of increasing government size also reduces the social welfare index by -0.427 percent. Finally, the effect of increasing tax revenues by one percent, social welfare index by 0.361 percent. According to the results, it can be said that economic freedom can increase social welfare and equity by removing the constraints and limitations of economic pursuits. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
95 - Investigating the short and long term relationship between upside and downside risks with inflation and economic growth
Hossein Rad kaftroudi mohammadhasan gholizadeh mahdi fadaei Eshkikisince so far few studies have been conducted in the field of relationship favorable and unfavorable risk management with macroeconomic variables, in the present study, the short and long term effects of inflation and economic growth on the upside and downside risk manag Moresince so far few studies have been conducted in the field of relationship favorable and unfavorable risk management with macroeconomic variables, in the present study, the short and long term effects of inflation and economic growth on the upside and downside risk management of cement and pharmaceutical companies in the Iranian Stock Exchange in the form of ARDL panel model during the period 1391-99 were studied. The statistical population of the present study includes cement and pharmaceutical companies Iranian Stock Exchange, which selected 62 companies as a statistical sample using the systematic elimination method. The results showed that the inflation has a positive effect on the the upside and downside risks of cement and pharmaceutical companies, but economic growth has a negative effect on this variable. The results of the error correction model (ECM) indicate that 50.6% of the imbalance of upside and downside risks variable of its long-term values disappears after a period. Based on this, it can be said that if a shock causes favorable and unfavorable risks in market, it takes about two periods for the market to return to its original long-term equilibrium. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
96 - Merge And Credit risk
zeinab khalil arjomandi Masoud Taherinia Azam Ahmadyan Ahmad Sarlakmerge Bank is one of the ways to reform the structure of the banking network in the yearsThe latter has come to the attention of Iranian banking policymakers. Merger of banks in Iran with the aim of improving the health and Risk management of banks was done in 2017 one Moremerge Bank is one of the ways to reform the structure of the banking network in the yearsThe latter has come to the attention of Iranian banking policymakers. Merger of banks in Iran with the aim of improving the health and Risk management of banks was done in 2017 one of the most important Risks، In the absence of proper management can cause a crisis in the bank. in this article the effect of bank mergers on credit risk in the years 1996-2018 has been studied. The virtual variable is used to measure the merger of banks.In this article, to create a bank merger variable, a virtual variable is defined, according to which, if the banks is merged, it is considered number one and otherwise it is considered a zero number. To measure credit risk, two methods of univariate and definition of a combined variable have been used. To estimate the effect of bank mergers on credit risk of the model ARDL Used. The results of the model indicate a positive relationship between return on assets, the ratio of income-generating assets to credit risk and a negative relationship between economic growth and credit risk Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
97 - Examining the Effective Factors on Commercial Bank Profitability of Iran Using Panel ARDL Method
Iraj Shariatzadeh Mehdi Shabanzadeh Gholamreza ZomorodianIn any economic system the role of banks to collect deposits of the banking system (Procurement of resource) and its application in the financing of investment projects (allocation of resource) is very important. Nowadays, Expansion of global markets and increase compet MoreIn any economic system the role of banks to collect deposits of the banking system (Procurement of resource) and its application in the financing of investment projects (allocation of resource) is very important. Nowadays, Expansion of global markets and increase competition in the markets for financial services is affected the profitability of the banking industry, significantly. Given that the profitability of banks is one of functions of banks and a more profitable bank has more power to deal with negative shocks to the market, Therefore, attention to the profitability index as one indicator of evaluating the performance of the banks and its role in decisions related to the mobilization of resources, financing and resource allocation is essential. in this study To achieve this goal, the affective factors on profitability of commercial banks has been modeled and studied during 2009-2013. The scope of this study contains 8 commercial banks listed on Tehran Stock Exchange including Eghtesade Novin, Parsian, Karafarin, Pasargad, Mellat, Tejarat, Saderat and Sina. The study also is used the Panel ARDL method to achieve the targets. The results of this study showed that, The ratio of shareholders' equity to assets, The ratio of credit to assets, bank size and inflation have a direct and positive effect on the profitability of commercial banks. So, increasing and improvement of this variables increase the profitability of commercial banks in the short term and long term. However, the effect of credit risk on commercial bank's profitability index is negative. So that increasing of this variable deacrease the profitability of commercial banks in the short term and long term. finally, The results of ECM model reveal that the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is low, So that if the shock enters the model the long time require for correct the short-run and long-run imbalance equilibrium and back model to first equilibrium. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
98 - How Did Globalization Boost the Nuts Production in Indonesia?
Eko Hendarto Sandhir Sharma Maria Jade Catalan Opulencia Mohammed Khudair Hasan Aiman Mohammed Baqir Al-Dhalimy Iskandar Muda Mohammed Abed Jawad Krishanveer Singh Noor Abdul Ameer Jabar -
Open Access Article
99 - The effect of Expansionary Monetary Policies on Corruption in Iran
Afshin Baghfalaki Ali FalahatiCorruption is one of the main realities for oil countries and especially for Iran's economy.. Based on this, many studies and researches have been conducted in relation to investigating factors affecting corruption in different countries. The present study investigates MoreCorruption is one of the main realities for oil countries and especially for Iran's economy.. Based on this, many studies and researches have been conducted in relation to investigating factors affecting corruption in different countries. The present study investigates the long-term and short-term effects of expansionary monetary policy on corruption by using the statistical evidence of Iran's economy for the period of 2015-2018 and applying the ARDL econometric approach. The results of the estimates show that the ratio of liquidity to GDP has increased corruption due to the creation of rent in the economy, but the favorable quality of institutions can improve the effective direction of liquidity towards activities with higher added value, causing a positive effect of liquidity on the reduction be corruption In fact, what can be said about the relationship between liquidity and corruption is the incorrect direction of money towards activities without added value and rent, which has caused an increase in corruption in the economy. Also, the estimates show that the increase in the size of the government has caused an increase in corruption due to its nature, inflation has caused an increase in corruption due to economic instability, And finally, human capital has reduced corruption due to the increase in labor productivity and the increase in the level of social class of people., and it requires a long-term plan to fight corruption, and short-term policies cannot be considered as a desirable solution. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
100 - The Effects of Globalization on renewable and non-renewable energy consumption: Case Study: Selected Developing Countries
seyyed Ali Paytakhti Oskooe Laleh Tabaghchi AkbariNowadays, globalization as an inevitably phenomenon changes the relations of production, financial relations, government relations and cultural characteristics, resulting increase in production and consumption of the countries. Move of developing countries towards econo MoreNowadays, globalization as an inevitably phenomenon changes the relations of production, financial relations, government relations and cultural characteristics, resulting increase in production and consumption of the countries. Move of developing countries towards economic openness and integration into the global economy leads to different results, which one of the most important changes is in the field of energy. In this paper the effect of the combined indices of globalization on the renewable energy consumption (power and nuclear energy) and nonrenewable (fossil fuels coal, petroleum and natural gas) has been studied for the 8 selected developing countries (especially Iran) during the period 2001 to 2015. In order to estimate the effects of variables, Panel ARDL technique has been employed. The estimation results show that globalization has positive effect on the renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption. This means that globalization leads to increase in consumption of renewable and nonrenewable energy Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
101 - The Impact of Corporate Tax Revenue Instability on Economic Growth Rate in IRAN: 1993-2014
M. Rajabi S. zendehdelIncome tax, source of funding and fiscal policy tools to achieve the economic government targets.Fluctuations or instability revenue, causes that the government in planning, to rely on an unreliable source of income and thus, its long-term goals and plans, fail. So, the MoreIncome tax, source of funding and fiscal policy tools to achieve the economic government targets.Fluctuations or instability revenue, causes that the government in planning, to rely on an unreliable source of income and thus, its long-term goals and plans, fail. So, the aim of this study, is to analyze the impact of instability in corporate income tax (CIT) on economic growth in Iran. To reach the goal, the first in a regression model using generalized least squares method, the effect of different variables on corporate income tax and it was calculated error terms. Then the error terms as the instability of corporate income tax and the independent variable in growth model using Auto Regressive Distributed Lags, considered and estimated. To estimate the model, seasonal and variable data for the period: 1993-2014 extracted in the Central Bank of Iran site. The result shows that in the short term, corporate income tax behave differently on economic growth. And in the same time period drastically different effect, but in short run, have a negative effect in subsequent periods like the positive and negative effects of the business cycle due to the seasonality of the data. As a result of long-term negative impact on economic growth with high levels of statistical significance Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
102 - The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment on Domestic Private Investment in Iran (In Two Sectors of Building and Machinery)
Roohollah Babaki Mahnaz EfatiThe effects of foreign direct investment in host countries are one of the topics discussed in economics. By studying of the impacts of foreign direct investment on economic development, a key question is that attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) has a positive eff MoreThe effects of foreign direct investment in host countries are one of the topics discussed in economics. By studying of the impacts of foreign direct investment on economic development, a key question is that attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) has a positive effect on domestic investment or not; in other words, have they complementary or substitute effects. Therefore, in this paper, the impact of foreign direct investment on domestic private investment has been investigated in two sectors of building and machinery in Iran by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method between 1970 and 2020. The results of this study show that the foreign direct investment has a positive and significant effect on private investment in both sectors of building and machinery. So, foreign direct investment could be a complement commodity for domestic private investment in Iran Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
103 - The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth In Iran and Japan Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL)
S. Bahmanyar M. H. FotrosThis paper aimed to analyze the impact of oil price shocks, both negative and positive, on economic growth in Iran and Japan using an autoregressive distributed lag model. In doing so, a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity GARCH(1,1) model has been MoreThis paper aimed to analyze the impact of oil price shocks, both negative and positive, on economic growth in Iran and Japan using an autoregressive distributed lag model. In doing so, a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity GARCH(1,1) model has been fitted to real oil price during 1980 Q1-2006 Q4. After capturing conditional variable and analysis of the existence ARCH effect on this variable, oil price shocks are then computed. Four single models are used to estimate the impact of oil price shocks on gross domestic product growth. According to the results, since the existing coefficients are not statistically significant, it can not be clearly decided whether the relation between these two variables in Iran’s economy is symmetric or asymmetric . In Japan, the estimated coefficients prove the existence of an asymmetric relation. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
104 - The impact on economic growth, development and financial uncertainty in Selected Asian Countries
K. Karabulut A. Shahinpour B. ShadizaliThe efficient and strong financial markets are assumed the main part of economic. Without having an efficient finance could not attain to financial development. In fact the turnover of optimal economic in every society is depended on to two part of real and financ MoreThe efficient and strong financial markets are assumed the main part of economic. Without having an efficient finance could not attain to financial development. In fact the turnover of optimal economic in every society is depended on to two part of real and finance is strong and efficient. The activity of both parts is accounted the necessity and sufficient condition for and economics system. With regard to financial liberalization and openness and the impact of financial development is the most topic important of economics policy. based on impact achieving economics growth and maintaining an economy without dependence to foreign countries this study is besides on examining the assumption that developing the trade and financial development cause economic growth and the impact of financial volatility is decreasing economic growth in selected Asian countries during 1980-2010. In order to finding the best solution in the way of economic policy to economic growth. Therefore the econometrics approach is based on Ranceier and loayza (2006) in panel data and generalized method of moments (GMM) approach. The empirical results show that financial development has growth impact while the shocks of financial depth(financial fragility) has negative impact on economic growth. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
105 - Investigateion The Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Demand for Life Insurance
F. NAzariThe aim of this study is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables on Iran life insurance demand in the period . We used ARDL Procedure to estimate the research model.The results show that the price of insurance and life expectancy in long-term has significan MoreThe aim of this study is to investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables on Iran life insurance demand in the period . We used ARDL Procedure to estimate the research model.The results show that the price of insurance and life expectancy in long-term has significantly positive effect on the demand for life insurance and financial development and inflation expectations in long-term has significant negative effect on the demand for life insurance. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
106 - Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach
H. Asghar Pour Zeinab Jammeh ShooraniThe main propose of this research is the survey of affecting globalization on tax revenue in Iran by Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. So other variables such as real per capita income (as an indicator of economic development), degree of urbanization, the MoreThe main propose of this research is the survey of affecting globalization on tax revenue in Iran by Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. So other variables such as real per capita income (as an indicator of economic development), degree of urbanization, the share of agriculture in gross domestic product, dependency ratio (as an index of social and economic structure) and exchange rate, effects on tax revenue have been investigated. Stationary test of variables in the model is shown based on adjusted Dickey – Fuller. For the results of this test, the time series used in this model are characteristics I(0) and I(1). In this study, the pattern Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the method of least squares for first or more order differencing is used. Dynamic model estimation results indicate a tendency towards long run equilibrium model. Additionally, globalization has positive effect on the proportion of total tax and the tax on trade in GDP Manuscript profile
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